Dibutyl phthalate released by solitary female locusts mediates sexual communication at low density.

Sex pheromones play a crucial role in mate location and reproductive success. Insects face challenges in finding mates in low-density environments. The population dynamics of locusts vary greatly, ranging from solitary individuals to high-density swarms, leading to multiple-trait divergence between solitary and gregarious phases. However, differences in sexual communication between solitary and gregarious locusts have not been sufficiently explored. Herein, we found that solitary locusts but not gregarious ones heavily rely on a single compound, dibutyl phthalate (DBP), for sexual communication. DBP is abundantly released by solitary female locusts and elicits strong attraction of male solitary and gregarious locusts. Solitary adult males display much higher electrophysiological responses to DBP than adult females. Additionally, LmigOr13 was identified as the DBP-specific odorant receptor expressed in neurons housed in basiconic sensilla. Male LmigOr13-/- mutants generated by CRISPR/Cas9 have low electrophysiological responses and behavioral attraction to DBP in both laboratory and field cage experiments. Notably, the attractiveness of DBP to male locusts becomes more evident at lower population densities imposed by controlling the cage size. This finding sheds light on the utilization of a sex pheromone to promote reproductive success in extremely low-density conditions and provides important insights into alternative approaches for population monitoring of locusts.

Human infrastructures correspond to higher Adélie penguin breeding success and growth rate.

Anthropogenic activities generate increasing disturbance in wildlife especially in extreme environments where species have to cope with rapid environmental changes. In Antarctica, while studies on human disturbance have mostly focused on stress response through physiological and behavioral changes, local variability in population dynamics has been addressed more scarcely. In addition, the mechanisms by which breeding communities are affected around research stations remain unclear. Our study aims at pointing out the fine-scale impact of human infrastructures on the spatial variability in Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies dynamics. Taking 24 years of population monitoring, we modeled colony breeding success and growth rate in response to both anthropic and land-based environmental variables. Building density around colonies was the second most important variable explaining spatial variability in breeding success after distance from skua nests, the main predators of penguins on land. Building density was positively associated with penguins breeding success. We discuss how buildings may protect penguins from avian predation and environmental conditions. The drivers of colony growth rate included topographical variables and the distance to human infrastructures. A strong correlation between 1-year lagged growth rate and colony breeding success was coherent with the use of public information by penguins to select their initial breeding site. Overall, our study brings new insights about the relative contribution and ecological implications of human presence on the local population dynamics of a sentinel species in Antarctica.

Genomic insights into the critically endangered King Island scrubtit.

Small, fragmented, or isolated populations are at risk of population decline due to fitness costs associated with inbreeding and genetic drift. The King Island scrubtit Acanthornis magna greeniana is a critically endangered subspecies of the nominate Tasmanian scrubtit A. m. magna, with an estimated population of <100 individuals persisting in three patches of swamp forest. The Tasmanian scrubtit is widespread in wet forests on mainland Tasmania. We sequenced the scrubtit genome using PacBio HiFi and undertook a population genomic study of the King Island and Tasmanian scrubtits using a double-digest restriction site-associated DNA (ddRAD) dataset of 5,239 SNP loci. The genome was 1.48 Gb long, comprising 1,518 contigs with an N50 of 7.715 Mb. King Island scrubtits formed one of four overall genetic clusters, but separated into three distinct subpopulations when analyzed independently of the Tasmanian scrubtit. Pairwise FST values were greater among the King Island scrubtit subpopulations than among most Tasmanian scrubtit subpopulations. Genetic diversity was lower and inbreeding coefficients were higher in the King Island scrubtit than all except one of the Tasmanian scrubtit subpopulations. We observed crown baldness in 8/15 King Island scrubtits, but 0/55 Tasmanian scrubtits. Six loci were significantly associated with baldness, including one within the DOCK11 gene which is linked to early feather development. Contemporary gene flow between King Island scrubtit subpopulations is unlikely, with further field monitoring required to quantify the fitness consequences of its small population size, low genetic diversity, and high inbreeding. Evidence-based conservation actions can then be implemented before the taxon goes extinct.

Evaluating Thermal Infrared Drone Flight Parameters on Spider Monkey Detection in Tropical Forests.

Geoffroy's spider monkeys, an endangered, fast-moving arboreal primate species with a large home range and a high degree of fission-fusion dynamics, are challenging to survey in their natural habitats. Our objective was to evaluate how different flight parameters affect the detectability of spider monkeys in videos recorded by a drone equipped with a thermal infrared camera and examine the level of agreement between coders. We used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate the impact of flight speed (2, 4, 6 m/s), flight height (40, 50 m above ground level), and camera angle (-45°, -90°) on spider monkey counts in a closed-canopy forest in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Our results indicate that none of the three flight parameters affected the number of detected spider monkeys. Agreement between coders was "substantial" (Fleiss' kappa coefficient = 0.61-0.80) in most cases for high thermal-contrast zones. Our study contributes to the development of standardized flight protocols, which are essential to obtain accurate data on the presence and abundance of wild populations. Based on our results, we recommend performing drone surveys for spider monkeys and other medium-sized arboreal mammals with a small commercial drone at a 4 m/s speed, 15 m above canopy height, and with a -90° camera angle. However, these recommendations may vary depending on the size and noise level produced by the drone model.

Psychometrics of psychosocial behavior items under age 6 years: Evidence from Nebraska, USA.

Because healthy psychosocial development in the first years of life is critical to lifelong well-being, governmental, and nongovernmental organizations are increasingly interested in monitoring psychosocial behaviors among populations of children. In response, the World Health Organization is developing the Global Scales of Early Development Psychosocial Form (GSED PF) to facilitate population-level psychosocial monitoring. Once validated, the GSED PF will be an open-access, caregiver-reported measure of children's psychosocial behaviors that is appropriate for infants and young children. This study examines the psychometric validity evidence from 45 items under consideration for inclusion in the GSED PF. Using data from N = 836 Nebraskan (USA) children aged 180 days to 71 months, results indicate that scores from 44 of the 45 (98%) items exhibit positive evidence of validity and reliability. A bifactor model with one general factor and five specific factors best fit the data, exhibited strong reliability, and acceptable model fit. Criterion associations with known predictors of children's psychosocial behaviors were in the expected direction. These findings suggest that measurement of children's psychosocial behaviors may be feasible, at least in the United States. Data from more culturally and linguistically diverse settings is needed to assess these items for global monitoring.

Debido a que el desarrollo sicosocial en los primeros años de vida es crítico para el bienestar de toda la vida, las organizaciones gubernamentales y no gubernamentales están más y más interesadas en observar vigilantemente las conductas sicosociales en la población infantil. Como respuesta, la Organización Mundial de la Salud está desarrollando el Formulario Sicosocial de las Escalas Globales del Temprano Desarrollo (GSED PF) para facilitar la observación sicosocial alerta al nivel del grupo de población. Una vez que se haya convalidado, el GSED PF será una medida de acceso abierto, que reportará el cuidador, sobre las conductas sicosociales de los niños que son apropiadas para infantes y niños pequeñitos. Este estudio examina la evidencia de la validez sicométrica de 45 puntos bajo consideración para ser incluidos en el GSED PF. Usando datos de N = 836 niños de Nebraska (Estados Unidos), de edad entre 180 días y 71 meses, los resultados indican que los puntajes de 44 de los 45 (98%) puntos muestran evidencia positiva de validez y confiabilidad. Un modelo bifactorial con un factor general y cinco factores específicos, que mejor encaja con los datos, mostró una fuerte confiabilidad y un modelo aceptable que encaja. Las asociaciones de criterio con factores de predicción conocidos acerca de las conductas sicosociales de los niños se encontraban en la dirección esperada. Estos resultados sugieren que la medida de las conductas sicosociales de los niños pudiera ser posible, por lo menos en los Estados Unidos. Se necesitan datos de escenarios más diversos cultural y lingüísticamente para evaluar estos puntos para la estar alerta en la observación global.

A genetic warning system for a hierarchically structured wildlife monitoring framework.

Genetic variation is a well-known indicator of population fitness yet is not typically included in monitoring programs for sensitive species. Additionally, most programs monitor populations at one scale, which can lead to potential mismatches with ecological processes critical to species' conservation. Recently developed methods generating hierarchically nested population units (i.e., clusters of varying scales) for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have identified population trend declines across spatiotemporal scales to help managers target areas for conservation. The same clusters used as a proxy for spatial scale can alert managers to local units (i.e., neighborhood-scale) with low genetic diversity, further facilitating identification of management targets. We developed a genetic warning system utilizing previously developed hierarchical population units to identify management-relevant areas with low genetic diversity within the greater sage-grouse range. Within this warning system we characterized conservation concern thresholds based on values of genetic diversity and developed a statistical model for microsatellite data to robustly estimate these values for hierarchically nested populations. We found that 41 of 224 neighborhood-scale clusters had low genetic diversity, 23 of which were coupled with documented local population trend decline. We also found evidence of cross-scale low genetic diversity in the small and isolated Washington population, unlikely to be reversed through typical local management actions alone. The combination of low genetic diversity and a declining population suggests relatively high conservation concern. Our findings could further facilitate conservation action prioritization in combination with population trend assessments and (or) local information, and act as a base-line of genetic diversity for future comparison. Importantly, the approach we used is broadly applicable across taxa.

Reproductive performance of Peregrine falcons relative to the use of organochlorine pesticides, 1946-2021.

Populations of some fish- and meat-eating birds suffered dramatic declines globally following the introduction of organochlorine pesticides during the late 1940s and 1950s. It has been hypothesised that these population declines during the 1950s-1970s were largely driven by a combination of reproductive failure due to eggshell-thinning, egg breakage and embryonic death attributable to DDT and its metabolites, and to enhanced mortality attributable to the more toxic cyclodiene compounds such as aldrin and dieldrin. Using 75 years (1946-2021) of Peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) monitoring data (315 unique nest-sites monitored for 6110 nest-years), we studied the breeding performance of a resident Peregrine population in southern Scotland relative to the spatiotemporal pattern of organochlorine pesticide use. We show that (i) Peregrine breeding success and measures of breeding performance increased substantially following the reduction in, and subsequently a complete ban on, the use of organochlorine pesticides; (ii) improvements in Peregrine breeding performance were more dramatic in southeastern Scotland where agriculture was the predominant land use than in southwestern Scotland where there was less arable and more forested land; (iii) Peregrines nesting closer to the coast generally had higher fledging success (that is, a higher proportion of clutches that produced at least one fledgeling) than those nesting inland farther away from the coast; (iv) low temperatures and excessive rain in May negatively affected Peregrine fledging success; and (v) Peregrine abundance increased in parallel with improvements in reproductive performance following the reduction and then complete ban on the use of organochlorine pesticides in the UK. However, recovery was gradual and occurred over four decades, and rate of recovery varied among measures of reproductive performance (egg, nestling and fledgeling production). Our results suggest that the temporal pattern of organochlorine pesticide use strongly influenced Peregrine reproductive parameters but that the pattern of influence differed regionally. Overall results are consistent with the hypothesis that reproductive failure caused by organochlorine pesticides was an important driver of the decline in the south Scottish Peregrine population, and that improvements in all measures of breeding performance following a reduction and eventual ban on organochlorine use facilitated the observed increase in this population.

Mistletoes could moderate drought impacts on birds, but are themselves susceptible to drought-induced dieback.

Mistletoes are hemiparasitic plants and keystone species in many ecosystems globally. Given predicted increases in drought frequency and intensity, mistletoes may be crucial for moderating drought impacts on community structure. Dependent on host vascular flows, mistletoes can succumb to stress when water availability falls, making them susceptible to mortality during drought. We counted mistletoe across greater than 350 000 km2 of southeastern Australia and conducted standardized bird surveys between 2016 and 2021, spanning a major drought event in 2018-2019. We aimed to identify predictors of mistletoe abundance and mortality and determine whether mistletoes might moderate drought impacts on woodland birds. Live mistletoe abundance varied with tree species composition, land use and presence of mistletoebirds. Mistletoe mortality was widespread, consistent with high 2018/2019 summer temperatures, low 2019/2020 summer rainfall and the interaction between summer temperatures and rainfall in 2019/2020. The positive association between surviving mistletoes and woodland birds was greatest in the peak drought breeding seasons of 2018/2019 and 2019/2020, particularly for small residents and insectivores. Paradoxically, mistletoes could moderate drought impacts on birds, but are themselves vulnerable to drought-induced mortality. An improved understanding of the drivers and dynamics of mistletoe mortality is needed to address potential cascading trophic impacts associated with mistletoe die-off.

Long-term monitoring indicates shifting fall migration timing in monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus).

Eastern North American monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) embark on a yearly migration between summer breeding grounds in the northern United States and southern Canada and overwintering sites in central Mexico, traveling up to 4300 km. This annual multi-generational migration cycle, like many seasonal natural phenomena, may be impacted by recent changes in climate and habitat. We investigated long-term trends in monarch abundance and fall migration timing over a 29-year period in Cape May, New Jersey, using data collected from daily population surveys designed to track patterns of occurrence during the fall migration period through Cape May (1 Sept-31 Oct). Between 1992 and 2020, the migration midpoint, average peak migration day and first peak migration day shifted between 16 and 19 days later in the season, an average of approximately six days per decade. This observed shift in migration timing is correlated with increasing temperatures in September and October in northeastern monarch breeding grounds over the study period. Our data do not demonstrate a significant directional trend in monarch abundance over the study period, yet population data collected at overwintering sites in Mexico indicate a substantial decline over the same period. Further postponement of fall migration may lead to lower migration success and exacerbate the overall decline of this iconic species.

Is scat marking a reliable tool for otter census and surveys at the landscape scale?

Biological significance of scat marking by otters has been a controversial subject among scientists. Using multiyear (2014-2017) data of otter spraint counts in South Korea, this study aimed to test whether the observed pattern of spraint presence/absence is driven by detection error and if/how scat counts can be a proxy for otter abundance at the landscape scale. To test the first hypothesis, spraint presence/absence was analyzed through occupancy models, which relied on environmental variables related to otter detectability and presence. Spraint count models were used to test the second hypothesis against resource-related covariates in combination with landscape, anthropogenic, and climate variables through machine learning algorithms (MLAs). The detection probability has specifically decreased in areas characterized by high rainfall and human population densities, whereas the probability has increased near food-rich sites, characterized by high marking frequencies. The temporal trends of spraint count predictions were in line with changes in the diversity of fish communities in 2014-2017 instead of fish biomass, suggesting that the availability of feeding resources is higher where fish communities are more diverse. Because diverse fish communities can attract otters, fish diversity conservation is critical for preserving this mammal's populations. This fine scale four-year monitoring has contributed to the disentanglement of the role of spraint presence/absence and spraint counts in detectability and population trends. This will assist in identifying key resource areas and planning strategies to promote otter conservation and dispersal dynamics.

Developing community-based urine sampling methods to deploy biomarker technology for the assessment of dietary exposure.

OBJECTIVE: Obtaining objective, dietary exposure information from individuals is challenging because of the complexity of food consumption patterns and the limitations of self-reporting tools (e.g., FFQ and diet diaries). This hinders research efforts to associate intakes of specific foods or eating patterns with population health outcomes. DESIGN: Dietary exposure can be assessed by the measurement of food-derived chemicals in urine samples. We aimed to develop methodologies for urine collection that minimised impact on the day-to-day activities of participants but also yielded samples that were data-rich in terms of targeted biomarker measurements. SETTING: Urine collection methodologies were developed within home settings. PARTICIPANTS: Different cohorts of free-living volunteers. RESULTS: Home collection of urine samples using vacuum transfer technology was deemed highly acceptable by volunteers. Statistical analysis of both metabolome and selected dietary exposure biomarkers in spot urine collected and stored using this method showed that they were compositionally similar to urine collected using a standard method with immediate sample freezing. Even without chemical preservatives, samples can be stored under different temperature regimes without any significant impact on the overall urine composition or concentration of forty-six exemplar dietary exposure biomarkers. Importantly, the samples could be posted directly to analytical facilities, without the need for refrigerated transport and involvement of clinical professionals. CONCLUSIONS: This urine sampling methodology appears to be suitable for routine use and may provide a scalable, cost-effective means to collect urine samples and to assess diet in epidemiological studies.

Measuring early childhood development in multiple contexts: the internal factor structure and reliability of the early Human Capability Index in seven low and middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: The fourth year of the Sustainable Development Agenda era calls for countries to continue to invest not only in interventions and policies that will promote global equity and sustainability, but also in the monitoring systems required to track progress against these targets. A more pragmatic solution to measuring children's early development in low and middle income countries in particular, is required. This study explores the psychometric properties of the early Human Capability Index (eHCI), a population measure of holistic development for children aged 3-5 years, designed with the vision of being flexible and feasible for use in low resource and capacity settings. METHODS: Utilizing data from seven low and middle income countries: Brazil (n = 1810), China (n = 11,421), Kiribati (n = 8339), Lao People's Democratic Republic (n = 7493), Samoa (n = 12,191), Tonga (n = 6214), and Tuvalu (n = 549), analyses explored the internal factor structure and reliability of scores produced by the tool within each country. RESULTS: Confirmatory factor analyses and internal consistency coefficients demonstrated that after local adaptation, translation, and different implementation methods across countries, the eHCI maintained the same factor structure of nine theoretically-based developmental domains: Physical Health, Verbal Communication, Cultural Knowledge, Social and Emotional Skills, Perseverance, Approaches to Learning, Numeracy, Reading, and Writing. CONCLUSIONS: Findings support the aims of the eHCI in being adaptable and applicable for use within a range of low and middle income countries to facilitate measurement and monitoring of children's early development, as is required for the tracking of progress towards the Sustainable Development Agenda.

Adaptive management of animal populations with significant unknowns and uncertainties: a case study.

Conservation and management decision making in natural resources is challenging due to numerous uncertainties and unknowns, especially relating to understanding system dynamics. Adaptive resource management (ARM) is a formal process to making logical and transparent recurrent decisions when there are uncertainties about system dynamics. Despite wide recognition and calls for implementing adaptive natural resource management, applications remain limited. More common is a reactive approach to decision making, which ignores future system dynamics. This contrasts with ARM, which anticipates future dynamics of ecological process and management actions using a model-based framework. Practitioners may be reluctant to adopt ARM because of the dearth of comparative evaluations between ARM and more common approaches to making decisions. We compared the probability of meeting management objectives when managing a population under both types of decision frameworks, specifically in relation to typical uncertainties and unknowns. We use a population of Sandhill Cranes as our case study. We evaluate each decision process under varying levels of monitoring and ecological uncertainty, where the true underlying population dynamics followed a stochastic age-structured population model with environmentally driven vital rate density dependence. We found that the ARM framework outperformed the currently employed reactive decision framework to manage Sandhill Cranes in meeting the population objective across an array of scenarios. This was even the case when the candidate set of population models contained only naïve representations of the true population process. Under the reactive decision framework, we found little improvement in meeting the population objective even if monitoring uncertainty was eliminated. In contrast, if the population was monitored without error within the ARM framework, the population objective was always maintained, regardless of the population models considered. Contrary to expectation, we found that age-specific optimal harvest decisions are not always necessary to meet a population objective when population dynamics are age structured. Population managers can decrease risks and gain transparency and flexibility in management by adopting an ARM framework. If population monitoring data has high sampling variation and/or limited empirical knowledge is available for constructing mechanistic population models, ARM model sets should consider a range of mechanistic, descriptive, and predictive model types.

Identification of the Aggregation-sex Pheromone of the Cerambycid Beetle Phymatodes pusillus ssp. pusillus and Evidence of a Synergistic Effect from a Heterospecific Pheromone Component.

The longhorn beetle Phymatodes (Poecilium) pusillus ssp. pusillus is a rare, elusive species that is included on Red Lists of threatened species. Previously, 1-hexanol and 1-butanol were reported as putative components of the aggregation-sex pheromone of this species, but behavioral assays to confirm this have not been performed. In this study, we undertook a comprehensive examination of P. p. pusillus to verify the presence of a pheromone. Adult beetles were reared from colonized wood and used for headspace sampling. Analyses by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry revealed that two compounds were present in large quantities in the extracts of males, but absent in extracts from females. Male and female antennae showed repeatable responses to the two compounds in electrophysiological recordings. Using synthetic standards, we were able to identify the compounds as 1-hexanol and 2-methyl-1-butanol. A field bioassay demonstrated that the two compounds were unattractive when applied singly, but elicited significant attraction of female and male beetles when applied in blends of different ratios. We also found that the species exhibited significant attraction to a blend of 3-hydroxy-2-hexanone and 2-methyl-1-butanol, which is the aggregation-sex pheromone of at least two closely related and sympatric species. The presence of the heterospecific component 3-hydroxy-2-hexanone synergized a response to 2-methyl-1-butanol. The pheromone of these species may function as a host cue for P. p. pusillus as the three species have similar phenology and substrate demands. The aggregation-sex pheromone of P. p. pusillus can be used for population monitoring and as a tool to study the general ecology and conservation requirements of this rare species.

Feasibility of using high-resolution satellite imagery to assess vertebrate wildlife populations.

Although remote sensing has been used for >40 years to learn about Earth, use of very high-resolution satellite imagery (VHR) (<1-m resolution) has become more widespread over the past decade for studying wildlife. As image resolution increases, there is a need to understand the capabilities and limitations of this exciting new path in wildlife research. We reviewed studies that used VHR to examine remote populations of wildlife. We then determined characteristics of the landscape and the life history of species that made the studies amenable to use of satellite imagery and developed a list of criteria necessary for appropriate use of VHR in wildlife research. From 14 representative articles, we determined 3 primary criteria that must be met for a system and species to be appropriately studied with VHR: open landscape, target organism's color contrasts with the landscape, and target organism is of detectable size. Habitat association, temporal exclusivity, coloniality, landscape differentiation, and ground truthing increase the utility of VHR for wildlife research. There is an immediate need for VHR imagery in conservation research, particularly in remote areas of developing countries, where research can be difficult. For wildlife researchers interested in but unfamiliar with remote sensing resources and tools, understanding capabilities and current limitations of VHR imagery is critical to its use as a conservation and wildlife research tool.

Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

Comparison of nine different methods to assess fish communities in lentic flood-plain habitats.

This study compares the effectiveness and representativeness of electrofishing, snorkelling, seining, baited lift netting, multi-mesh gillnetting, baited fish traps, fyke netting, angling and longline fishing, considering three typical lentic flood-plain habitats at different times of day. Electrofishing was by far the most effective method yielding highest species richness, species trait representation and catch per unit of effort (CPUE), followed by seining. For single species like dace Leuciscus leuciscus, European ruffe Gymnocephalus cernua, common bream Abramis brama and silver bream Blicca bjoerkna, seining was more effective than electrofishing. With both methods, some species were more consistently caught during night, dusk or dawn than during daylight. All other methods tested cannot be generally recommended for fish community assessments in shallow backwaters due to their low representativeness of species inventory and generally low CPUE. Based on these results, electrofishing of 30 m transect replicates at different times of day for monitoring the fish community in shallow backwaters, can be recommended, enabling the maximum possible comparability to adjacent river habitats. Seining should be considered as an alternative if accessibility of habitats is restricted or electrofishing is prohibited. The 25 species detected in the backwaters also suggest that these habitats contribute a large proportion of fish diversity and should be included in standard assessments of river ecological status.

Effectiveness of Wyoming's Sage-Grouse Core Areas: Influences on Energy Development and Male Lek Attendance.

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) populations have declined across their range due to human-assisted factors driving large-scale habitat change. In response, the state of Wyoming implemented the Sage-grouse Executive Order protection policy in 2008 as a voluntary regulatory mechanism to minimize anthropogenic disturbance within defined sage-grouse core population areas. Our objectives were to evaluate areas designated as Sage-grouse Executive Order Core Areas on: (1) oil and gas well pad development, and (2) peak male lek attendance in core and non-core sage-grouse populations. We conducted our evaluations at statewide and Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies management zone (MZ I and MZ II) scales. We used Analysis of Covariance modeling to evaluate change in well pad development from 1986-2014 and peak male lek attendance from 958 leks with consistent lek counts within increasing (1996-2006) and decreasing (2006-2013) timeframes for Core and non-core sage-grouse populations. Oil and gas well pad development was restricted in Core Areas. Trends in peak male sage-grouse lek attendance were greater in Core Areas compared to non-core areas at the statewide scale and in MZ II, but not in MZ I, during population increase. Trends in peak male lek attendance did not differ statistically between Core and non-core population areas statewide, in MZ I, or MZ II during population decrease. Our results provide support for the effectiveness of Core Areas in maintaining sage-grouse populations in Wyoming, but also indicate the need for increased conservation actions to improve sage-grouse population response in MZ I.

How Survey Design Affects Monkey Counts: A Case Study on Individually Recognized Spider Monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi).

The fast movement and high degree of fission-fusion dynamics of spider monkeys (Ateles spp.) make them notoriously difficult to survey. We examined which aspects of survey design affect spider monkey sightings along transects in a group of individually recognized spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) in Punta Laguna, Yucatan, Mexico. We calculated the number of monkeys and subgroups sighted per transect walk. Using generalized linear models, we found no effect of the number of observers, transect type (new vs. existing), walking speed, or time of day on individual monkey counts or subgroup counts. Recounting of individuals was relatively rare and occurred when transects were walked relatively slowly. We missed more young than adult monkeys. The group composition based on survey data was similar to the known group composition. Based on our findings we recommend that surveys performed on relatively flat terrain be conducted at speeds similar to or faster than the moving speed of spider monkeys to minimize recounting of individuals and that young:adult female ratios based on survey data be interpreted as conservative indicators of population health. The novel methods presented to determine sources of bias in population estimates are applicable to a wide range of primates that are difficult to survey.

Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses.

The rush to assess species' responses to anthropogenic climate change (CC) has underestimated the importance of interannual population variability (PV). Researchers assume sampling rigor alone will lead to an accurate detection of response regardless of the underlying population fluctuations of the species under consideration. Using population simulations across a realistic, empirically based gradient in PV, we show that moderate to high PV can lead to opposite and biased conclusions about CC responses. Between pre- and post-CC sampling bouts of modeled populations as in resurvey studies, there is: (i) A 50% probability of erroneously detecting the opposite trend in population abundance change and nearly zero probability of detecting no change. (ii) Across multiple years of sampling, it is nearly impossible to accurately detect any directional shift in population sizes with even moderate PV. (iii) There is up to 50% probability of detecting a population extirpation when the species is present, but in very low natural abundances. (iv) Under scenarios of moderate to high PV across a species' range or at the range edges, there is a bias toward erroneous detection of range shifts or contractions. Essentially, the frequency and magnitude of population peaks and troughs greatly impact the accuracy of our CC response measurements. Species with moderate to high PV (many small vertebrates, invertebrates, and annual plants) may be inaccurate 'canaries in the coal mine' for CC without pertinent demographic analyses and additional repeat sampling. Variation in PV may explain some idiosyncrasies in CC responses detected so far and urgently needs more careful consideration in design and analysis of CC responses.