Perspectives on the timing of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate.

Climate change is one of the most important drivers of ecosystem change, the global-scale impacts of which will intensify over the next 2 decades. Estimating the timing of unprecedented changes is not only challenging but is of great importance for the development of ecosystem conservation guidelines. Time of emergence (ToE) (point at which climate change can be differentiated from a previous climate), a widely applied concept in climatology studies, provides a robust but unexplored approach for assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, as described by the C criterion of the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE). We identified 3 main theoretical considerations of ToE for RLE assessment (degree of stability, multifactorial instead of one-dimensional analyses, and hallmarks of ecosystem collapse) and 4 sources of uncertainty when applying ToE methodology (intermodel spread, historical reference period, consensus among variables, and consideration of different scenarios), which aims to avoid misuse and errors while promoting a proper application of the framework by scientists and practitioners. The incorporation of ToE for the RLE assessments adds important information for conservation priority setting that allows prediction of changes within and beyond the time frames proposed by the RLE.

Perspectivas sobre el momento del colapso ecosistémico en un clima cambiante Resumen El cambio climático es uno de los principales causantes del cambio ecosistémico, cuyo impacto a escala global se intensificará en las próximas dos décadas. No sólo es un reto estimar el momento de los cambios sin precedentes, sino también es de gran importancia para el desarrollo de las directrices de conservación de los ecosistemas. El momento de aparición (MdA), el punto en el que el cambio climático puede diferenciarse de un clima previo; es un concepto de aplicación extensa en los estudios de climatología y proporciona una estrategia sólida pero poco explorada para evaluar el riesgo del colapso ecosistémico, como está descrito por el criterio C de la Lista Roja de Ecosistemas (LRE) de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza. Identificamos las tres consideraciones teóricas del MdA para la evaluación de la LRE (grado de estabilidad, análisis multifactoriales en vez de unidimensionales y distintivos del colapso ecosistémico) y cuatro fuentes de incertidumbre cuando se aplica la metodología MdA (difusión intermodelo, periodo de referencia histórica, consenso entre las variables y consideración de escenarios distintos), la cual busca evitar el mal uso y los errores mientras se promueve una aplicación adecuada del marco de los científicos y lo practicantes. La incorporación del MdA a las evaluaciones de la LRE añade información importante para el establecimiento de prioridades de conservación que permiten la predicción de cambios dentro y más allá del marco temporal propuesto por la LRE.

Diagnostic accuracy of the Oakland score versus haemoglobin for predicting outcomes in lower gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding (ALGIB) is a common cause of hospitalization. Recent guidelines recommend the use of prognostic scales for risk stratification. However, it remains unclear whether risk scores are more accurate than some simpler prognostic variables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive values of haemoglobin alone and the Oakland score for predicting outcomes in ALGIB patients. DESIGN: Single-centre, retrospective study at a University Hospital. Data were extracted from the hospital's clinical records. The Oakland score was calculated at admission. Study outcomes were defined according to the original article describing the Oakland score: safe discharge (the primary Oakland score outcome), transfusion, rebleeding, readmission, therapeutic intervention and death. Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve and accuracy using haemoglobin and the Oakland score were calculated for each outcome. RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty-eight patients were included. Eighty-four (32.6%) needed transfusion, 50 (19.4%) presented rebleeding, 31 (12.1%) required therapeutic intervention, 20 (7.8%) were readmitted and six (2.3%) died. There were no differences in the AUROC curve values for haemoglobin versus the Oakland score with regard to safe discharge (0.82 (0.77-0.88) vs 0.80 (0.74-0.86), respectively) or to therapeutic intervention and death. Haemoglobin was significantly better for predicting transfusion and rebleeding, and the Oakland score was significantly better for predicting readmission. CONCLUSION: In our study, the Oakland score did not perform better than haemoglobin alone for predicting the outcome of patients with ALGIB. The usefulness of risk scores for predicting outcomes in clinical practice remains uncertain.

Usefulness of the qSOFA score for predicting hospital mortality in cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: The quick Sequential Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) is a score that has been proposed to quickly identify patients at higher risk of death. OBJECTIVE: To describe the usefulness of the qSOFA score to predict in-hospital mortality in cancer patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Cross-sectional study carried out between January 2021 and December 2022. Hospital mortality was the dependent variable. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated to determine the discriminative ability of qSOFA to predict in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 587 cancer patients were included. A qSOFA score higher than 1 obtained a sensitivity of 57.2%, specificity of 78.5%, a positive predictive value of 55.4% and negative predictive value of 79.7%. The AUC of qSOFA for predicting in-hospital mortality was 0.70. In-hospital mortality of patients with qSOFA scores of 2 and 3 points was 52.7 and 64.4%, respectively. In-hospital mortality was 31.9% (187/587). CONCLUSION: qSOFA showed acceptable discriminative ability for predicting in-hospital mortality in cancer patients.

ANTECEDENTES: El quick Sequential Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) es una puntuación propuesta para identificar de forma rápida a pacientes con mayor probabilidad de morir. OBJETIVO: Describir la utilidad de la puntuación qSOFA para predecir mortalidad hospitalaria en pacientes con cáncer. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio transversal realizado entre enero de 2021 y diciembre de 2022. La mortalidad hospitalaria fue la variable dependiente. Se calculó el área bajo la curva ROC (ABC) para determinar la capacidad discriminativa de qSOFA para predecir mortalidad hospitalaria. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 587 pacientes con cáncer. La puntuación qSOFA < 1 obtuvo una sensibilidad de 57.2 %, una especificidad de 78.5 %, un valor predictivo positivo de 55.4 % y un valor predictivo negativo de 79.7 %. El ABC de qSOFA para predecir mortalidad hospitalaria fue de 0.70. La mortalidad hospitalaria de los pacientes con qSOFA de 2 y 3 puntos fue de 52.7 y 64.4 %, respectivamente. La mortalidad hospitalaria fue de 31.9 % (187/587). CONCLUSIÓN: qSOFA mostró capacidad discriminativa aceptable para predecir mortalidad hospitalaria en pacientes con cáncer.

Melanoma Registry of the Spanish Academy of Dermatology and Venereology (REGESMEL): Description and Data in its First Year of Operation. / Registro de Melanoma de la Academia Española de Dermatología y Venereología (REGESMEL): descripción y datos en el primer año de funcionamiento.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of melanoma is rising in Spain. The prognostic stages of patients with melanoma are determined by various biological factors, such as tumor thickness, ulceration, or the presence of regional or distant metastases. The Spanish Academy of Dermatology and Venereology (AEDV) has encouraged the creation of a Spanish Melanoma Registry (REGESMEL) to evaluate other individual and health system-related factors that may impact the prognosis of patients with melanoma. The aim of this article is to introduce REGESMEL and provide basic descriptive data for its first year of operation. METHODS: REGESMEL is a prospective, multicentre cohort of consecutive patients with invasive cutaneous melanoma that collects demographic and staging data as well as individual and healthcare-related baseline data. It also records the medical and surgical treatment received by patients. RESULTS: A total of 450 cases of invasive cutaneous melanoma from 19 participant centres were included, with a predominance of thin melanomas≤1mm thick (54.7%), mainly located on the posterior trunk (35.2%). Selective sentinel lymph node biopsy was performed in 40.7% of cases. Most cases of melanoma were suspected by the patient (30.4%), or his/her dermatologist (29.6%). Patients received care mainly in public health centers (85.2%), with tele-dermatology resources being used in 21.6% of the cases. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of the pathological and demographic variables of melanoma cases is consistent with data from former studies. REGESMEL has already recruited patients from 15 Spanish provinces and given its potential representativeness, it renders the Registry as an important tool to address a wide range of research questions.

Longitudinal Study of Different Progression Patterns in High-Risk Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma. / Estudio longitudinal de los diferentes patrones de progresión en el carcinoma cutáneo de células escamosas de alto riesgo.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is the second leading cause of skin cancer mortality in Europe. Few studies have analyzed the different pathways of this tumor progression in its natural history. The main objective of this study was to analyze the different metastatic and progression pathways and their temporal occurrence in the evolution of cSCC. MATERIAL AND METHOD: We conducted a multicenter, retrospective, and observational study of consecutive high-risk sSCCs included in the SQUAMATA project. RESULTS: A total of 222 out of the 1346 patients included relapsed. The most frequent route of progression was the lymphatic one (62.6%). A total of 20.2% of the cases with lymphatic progression developed distant metastases. Only 1 case (3.1%) of distant metastasis followed local recurrence without previous lymphatic metastasis. The median time to disease-related mortality was longer in patients who developed systemic metastases than in those who died of locoregional progression. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality of patients with cSCC is mostly due to the regional progression of their lymphatic metastases. The appearance of distant metastases is practically always (96.9%) associated with previous lymphatic metastatic progression. Therefore, in the future, new studies will be needed to assess the regional management of cSCC in both surgical and adjuvant therapies.

Fenofibrate normalizes alkaline phosphatase and improves long-term outcomes in patients with advanced primary biliary cholangitis refractory to ursodeoxycholic acid.

BACKGROUND: Although patients with advanced liver disease have been included in studies evaluating fibrates for the treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), the frequency of biochemical responses and adverse effects for this group of patients was not reported separately and comprehensively. AIMS: to evaluate the efficacy and safety of additional fenofibrate therapy in patients with advanced and ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-refractory PBC. METHODS: Patients were analyzed retrospectively to determine the clinical therapeutic effects of UDCA with additional fenofibrate therapy versus continued UDCA monotherapy. The liver transplantation (LT)-free survival and the alkaline phosphatase (ALP) normalization rates were estimated using Cox regression analyses and Kaplan-Meier plots with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). RESULTS: A total of 118 patients were included: 54 received UDCA alone and 64 received UDCA in combination with fenofibrate therapy. In the fenofibrate and UDCA groups, 37% and 11% of patients with advanced and UDCA-refractory PBC, respectively, achieved ALP normalization (P=0.001). Additional fenofibrate therapy improved both LT-free survival and ALP normalization rate after IPTW (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.07-0.75, P=0.015; and HR: 11.66, 95% CI: 5.02-27.06, P=0.001, respectively). These effects were supported by parallel changes in the rates of liver decompensation and histologic progression, and the United Kingdom (UK)-PBC and Globe risk scores. During the follow-up period, serum levels of ALP and aminotransferase decreased significantly, while total bilirubin, albumin, platelet, serum creatinine, and estimated glomerular filtration rate remained stable in fenofibrate-treated participants. No fenofibrate-related significant adverse events were observed in our cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Additional fenofibrate therapy significantly improved LT-free survival and ALP normalization in patients with advanced and UDCA-refractory PBC. Furthermore, adding-on fenofibrate therapy appeared to be safe and well tolerated in this population.

Forecasting the influence of conservation strategies on landscape connectivity.

Maintaining and enhancing landscape connectivity reduces biodiversity declines due to habitat fragmentation. Uncertainty remains, however, about the effectiveness of conservation for enhancing connectivity for multiple species on dynamic landscapes, especially over long time horizons. We forecasted landscape connectivity from 2020 to 2100 under four common conservation land-acquisition strategies: acquiring the lowest cost land, acquiring land clustered around already established conservation areas, acquiring land with high geodiversity characteristics, and acquiring land opportunistically. We used graph theoretic metrics to quantify landscape connectivity across these four strategies, evaluating connectivity for four ecologically relevant species guilds that represent endpoints along a spectrum of vagility and habitat specificity: long- versus short-distance dispersal ability and habitat specialists versus generalists. We applied our method to central North Carolina and incorporated landscape dynamics, including forest growth, succession, disturbance, and management. Landscape connectivity improved for specialist species under all conservation strategies employed, although increases were highly variable across strategies. For generalist species, connectivity improvements were negligible. Overall, clustering the development of new protected areas around land already designated for conservation yielded the largest improvements in connectivity; increases were several orders of magnitude beyond current landscape connectivity for long- and short-distance dispersing specialist species. Conserving the lowest cost land contributed the least to connectivity. Our approach provides insight into the connectivity contributions of a suite of conservation alternatives prior to on-the-ground implementation and, therefore, can inform connectivity planning to maximize conservation benefit.

Pronóstico de la Influencia de las Estrategias de Conservación sobre la Conectividad del Paisaje Resumen El mantenimiento y la mejora de la conectividad de paisaje reduce las declinaciones de biodiversidad causadas por la fragmentación del hábitat. Sin embargo, todavía existe incertidumbre sobre lo efectiva que es la conservación para la mejora de la conectividad para múltiples especies en paisajes dinámicos, especialmente durante periodos largos. Pronosticamos la conectividad de paisaje desde el 2020 hasta el 2100 bajo cuatro estrategias comunes de adquisición de tierras para conservación: adquisición de las tierras más baratas, adquisición de conjuntos de tierras adyacentes a áreas de conservación ya establecidas, adquisición de tierras con una gran diversidad de características geográficas, y adquisición oportunista de tierras. Después usamos medidas de teoría de grafos para cuantificar la conectividad de paisaje en estas cuatro estrategias y para evaluar la conectividad de cuatro gremios de especies con relevancia ecológica que representan los puntos finales en un espectro de movilidad y especificidad de hábitat: habilidad de dispersión de distancia corta versus larga y especialistas versus generalistas de hábitat. Aplicamos nuestro método en el centro de Carolina del Norte e incorporamos las dinámicas de paisaje, incluyendo el crecimiento, sucesión, alteración y gestión forestales. La conectividad del paisaje mejoró para las especies especialistas bajo todas las estrategias de conservación que se usaron, aunque los incrementos fueron muy variables según la estrategia. Para las especies generalistas, las mejoras en la conectividad fueron insignificantes. En general, agrupar al desarrollo de nuevas áreas protegidas alrededor de tierras ya designadas a la conservación produjo la mayor cantidad de mejoras en la conectividad; los incrementos estuvieron varias magnitudes más allá de la conectividad actual del paisaje para las especies especialistas con dispersión de corta y larga distancia. La conservación de las tierras más baratas contribuyó a la menor conectividad. Nuestra estrategia proporciona información sobre las contribuciones de conectividad de un conjunto de alternativas de conservación previas la implementación in situ y por lo tanto puede servir para orientar la planeación y maximizar el beneficio de conservación.

Evidence-based protocol for diagnosis and treatment of hepatorenal syndrome is independently associated with lower mortality.

BACKGROUND: Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is the deadliest complication of cirrhosis. The purpose of this study is to analyze if the use of a protocol for HRS is associated with higher survival in these patients. METHODS: An evidence-based protocol for the diagnosis and treatment of HRS was instituted in 2013. Data from medical records from 2010 to 2016 were obtained by searching the hospital database for patients who received terlipressin, in the three years before and after the institution of the protocol. Data were reviewed to confirm the diagnosis of HRS and multiple variables were collected. Liver-specific scores were calculated and a stepwise Cox regression approach was used for univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The study included 46 patients, 20 from the pre-protocol period and 26 from the post-protocol period. Respectively, mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 365 days was 75%, 75% and 90% for the pre-protocol period, and 61%, 69% and 80% for the post-protocol period. In the multivariate analysis, an aspartate aminotransferase (AST) of <40U/L, the pre-protocol period and higher Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores were associated with higher 30-day and 90-day mortality. The total mean dose of terlipressin and human albumin used per patient was reduced from 27mg to 22mg and from 236g to 144g, respectively, after the institution of the protocol. This was not associated with higher mortality. CONCLUSION: The use of an evidence-based protocol for the treatment of HRS translated into a higher survival. The authors suggest that the use of evidence-based protocols for the diagnosis and treatment of HRS could reduce cost and mortality in tertiary hospitals.

Relationship between initial symptoms and prognosis of patients with Covid-19.

OBJECTIVE: Aims to describe the initial symptoms most related to the prognosis of Covid-19. DESIGN: This is a retrospective cross sectional, quantitative, data analyzed study. SITE: This study was made in the family medicine centers (n=82) of Çorlu district of Tekirdag province, in Turkey. PARTICIPANTS: The study included patients (n=1.506) who had a positive PCR test for Covid-19 from March to September 2020. And we asked them their initial symptoms which bring them to the family medicine centers before the test. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: The participants' age, gender, presence of chronic disease, and initial symptoms which they come to a healthcare facility were evaluated. These variables were analyzed in terms of length of hospital stay, intensive care unit admission and mortality rates. RESULTS: The most common initial symptom in Covid-19 patients was cough. The presence of a chronic disease, the shortness of breath, malaise, the loss of smell and taste, and vomiting were found to be associated with an increased mortality rate. Advanced age, the presence of cough, malaise, the loss of smell and taste, and vomiting as the initial symptoms were found to have increased the likelihood of being admitted to the intensive care unit. CONCLUSIONS: The authors advise placing more attention on the initial symptoms of cough, malaise, the loss of smell and taste and vomiting in Covid-19 patients. Because these symptoms are related with severe prognosis indicators.

Prognostic Value of Vitamin D Serum Levels in Cutaneous Melanoma. / Efecto de los niveles séricos de vitamina D en el pronóstico del melanoma cutáneo.

INTRODUCTION: Vitamin D plays a fundamental role in many metabolic pathways, including those involved in cell proliferation and the immune response. Serum levels of this vitamin have been linked to melanoma risk and prognosis. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of vitamin D serum level in melanoma. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective, observational, longitudinal, and analytical study of 286 patients with a histologic diagnosis of melanoma in whom serum levels of vitamin D were measured at the time of diagnosis. We analyzed associations between serum level and epidemiologic and clinical variables and pathology findings; we also analyzed the influence of vitamin D on overall survival. An iterative loop was used to identify a vitamin D serum level to test for its an association with survival. RESULTS: A vitamin D level less than 9.25ng/mL was associated with a histologic finding of ulceration. After a median follow-up period of 39.4 months, 24 patients (8.4%) had died. The cutoff of 9.25ng/mL was associated with lower overall survival according to both the Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression analysis. CONCLUSION: Vitamin D levels less than 9.25ng/mL are associated with ulceration in melanoma and serve as an independent prognostic factor for overall survival in this disease.

Epidemiology of Melanoma in Spain: Estimation of Number of Patients With Stage III Disease Eligible for Adjuvant Therapies. / Epidemiología del melanoma en España: estimación de los pacientes con melanoma con estadio III candidatos al tratamiento adyuvante.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Accurate information on the incidence of melanoma by stage and a better understanding of transition between stages are important for determining the burden of disease and assessing the impact of new adjuvant therapies on recurrence and survival. The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence rates of the various stages of melanoma in Spain and to estimate the number of patients with stage III disease who are eligible for adjuvant systemic therapies. MATERIALS AND METHOD: We built an epidemiological model using prospectively collected data from patients diagnosed with de novo or recurrent melanoma between 2012 and 2016 in the melanoma units of 4 public hospitals. RESULTS: The estimated crude incidence rates for stage I and II melanoma were 7 and 2.9 cases per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The corresponding rates for stage III and IV melanoma were 1.9 and 1.3 cases per 100,000 person-years; 25.8% of patients with stage III melanoma were stage IIIA, 47% were stage IIIB, and 27.3% were stage IIIC. The respective estimated incidence rates for recurrent stage III and IV melanoma were 1.1 and 0.9 cases per 100,000 person-years. Overall, 54% of patients with recurrent stage III melanoma had progressed from stage I or II; the other cases corresponded to changes in substage. Of the patients with stage III melanoma, 85% of those with a de novo diagnosis and 80% of those who had relapsed had resectable disease, meaning they were eligible for adjuvant therapy; 47% of these patients had a BRAF mutation. CONCLUSIONS: The above estimates could have a major impact on health care resource planning. Assessing the number of patients with melanoma who are eligible for adjuvant therapies in melanoma could help decision-makers and clinicians anticipate future needs for the management of this disease.

Update on the Diagnosis and Management of Desmoplastic Melanoma. / Actualización en el diagnóstico y manejo del melanoma desmoplásico.

Desmoplastic melanoma (DM) accounts for 0.4% to 4% of all melanomas. These skin tumors are mainly formed by amelanotic spindled melanocytes immersed in an abundant collagen stroma and are classified as pure when the desmoplastic component accounts for at least 90% of the invasive tumor and as mixed or combined otherwise. DMs are more common in men (male to female ratio, 1.7 to 2:1), and the mean age at diagnosis is 66 to 69 years. The tumors tend to occur in chronically sun-exposed areas, often in association with lentigo maligna, and are difficult to recognize because they can resemble a scar, presenting as a firm, unpigmented papule or plaque with poorly defined borders. DMs also have a strong tendency to recur locally, and pure variants rarely spread to the lymph nodes. Nonetheless, recently published series suggest that patients with DM have a similar prognosis to those with nondesmoplastic melanoma of the same thickness. The clinical management of DM varies in certain aspects from that of other melanomas and is reviewed in this article.

Ki-67 labelling index is related to the risk classification and prognosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumours: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) are the most common mesenchymal tumours of the digestive tract with malignant potential. The current risk classification standard is unable to accurately evaluate the invasiveness and clinical outcomes of GISTs. Ki-67 labelling index (LI) may be an effective indicator in assessing tumour invasiveness and prognosis, however, its exact value in GISTs is still uncertain. The aims of our study were to evaluate the correlation of the Ki-67 LI and clinicopathological features of GISTs and to assess the potential value of the Ki-67 LI in GISTs classification and prognosis. METHODS: The clinical, pathological and prognostic data were collected and analysed to identify the independent influential factors of GISTs risk stratification and the predictors of GISTs prognosis. RESULTS: The Ki-67 LI was significantly associated with the clinicopathological features of tumour progression (P<0.05). It was an independent influential factor of GISTs risk classification (odds ratio: 1.322; 95% confidence interval: 1.031-1.696) (P=0.028), and the area under the curve (AUC) value of the Ki-67 LI on the discrimination ability of GISTs risk stratification was 0.906 (P<0.001). The optimal cutoff value of the Ki-67 LI was 6% (sensitivity of 87.5% and specificity of 76.2%), and patients with Ki-67 LI≥6% exhibited significantly poorer progression-free survival (PFS) than those with Ki-67 LI<6% (P<0.001). The AUC value of the Ki-67 LI for predicting PFS in postoperative patients was 0.813 (P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The Ki-67 LI has appreciated value to predict the risk grade and prognosis of GISTs. Patients with Ki-67 LI≥6% are prone to recurrence and metastasis after operation and may need a close follow-up.

Development of a predictive prognostic rule for early assessment of COVID-19 patients in primary care settings.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate possible early prognostic factors among middle-aged and older adult and explore prognostic rules stratifying risk of patients. DESIGN: Community-based retrospective cohort. SETTING: Primary Health Care Tarragona region. PARTICIPANTS: 282 community-dwelling symptomatic patients ≥50 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (hospitalised and/or outpatient) during March-June 2020 in Tarragona (Southern Catalonia, Spain). MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: Relationship between demographics, pre-existing comorbidities and early symptomatology (first 5-days) and risk of suffering critical outcome (ICU-admission/death) across clinical course was evaluated by logistic regression analyses, and simple predictive models were developed. RESULTS: Of the 282 cases (mean age: 65.9 years; 140 men), 154 (54.6%) were hospitalised (30 ICU-admitted) and 45 (16%) deceased. Median time follow-up in clinical course was 31 days (range: 30-150) for survivors and 14 days (range: 1-81) for deceased patients. In crude analyses, increasing age, male sex, some comorbidities (renal, respiratory or cardiac disease, diabetes and hypertension) and symptoms (confusion, dyspnoea) were associated with an increased risk to suffer critical outcome, whereas other symptoms (rinorrhea, myalgias, headache, anosmia/disgeusia) were related with reduced risk. After multivariable-adjustment only age/years (OR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.07; p=0.004), confusion (OR: 5.33; 95% CI: 1.54-18.48; p=0.008), dyspnoea (OR: 5.41; 95% CI: 2.74-10.69; p<0.001) and myalgias (OR: 0.30; 95% CI: 0.10-0.93; p=0.038) remained significantly associated with increased or reduced risk. A proposed CD65-M prognostic rule (acronym of above mentioned 4 variables) showed a good correlation with the risk of suffering critical outcome (area under ROC curve: 0.828; 95% CI: 0.774-0.882). CONCLUSION: Clinical course of COVID-19 is early unpredictable, but simple clinical tools as the proposed CD65-M rule (pending external validation) may be helpful assessing these patients in primary care settings.

Prognostic variables in patients with thick melanomas. Analysis of 362 cases.

BACKGROUND: Melanoma epidemiological and prognostic studies are based on Caucasian populations, in whom the predominant subtype is superficially-spreading melanoma and in whom thin melanomas (Breslow < 3 mm) predominate. Mexican patients show a predominance of thick melanomas (Breslow ≥ 3 mm), and the acral subtype is the most common. There are no publications on prognostic factors in thick melanomas. We hypothesize that we will identify factors that determine the prognosis in this group of patients. OBJECTIVE: To identify clinical-pathological factors associated with the prognosis of patients with thick melanomas in the Mexican population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data on melanomas with Breslow > 3 mm were collected from 2010 to 2015. The prognostic influence of various clinical-pathological factors was analyzed. RESULTS: The most common subtypes were acral melanoma in 271 patients (74.9 %) and nodular melanoma in 49 (13.5 %). Median Breslow thickness was 7 mm. 56.6 % of the patients had lymph node metastases (clinical stage [CS] III), 269 (74.3 %) had ulceration, and surgical margins were positive in 15 (4.1 %). Elevated neutrophil: lymphocyte ratio (≥ 2) was found in 188 (51.9 %). The variables associated with lower overall survival were CS (p < 0.001), Breslow thickness (p = 0.044), ulceration (p = 0.004), mitotic activity (p < 0.001), < 2-cm margin (p < 0.001) and an increased neutrophil: lymphocyte ratio (p = 0.037). In the multivariate analysis, the factors associated with overall survival were CS, mitotic activity, and surgical margin. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with thick melanomas, overall survival is influenced by mitotic activity, a positive margin, and clinical stage.

ANTECEDENTES: Los estudios sobre factores pronóstico de melanoma están basados en poblaciones cau­cásicas, con predominio de melanomas delgados (Breslow < 3 mm). Los pacientes mexicanos muestran predominio de melanomas gruesos (Breslow ≥ 3 mm). OBJETIVO: Identificar factores asocia­dos al pronóstico de pacientes con melanomas gruesos. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se analizó la influencia pronóstica de factores clinico­patológicos en 362 melanomas gruesos. RESULTADOS: La mediana de Breslow fue de 7 mm, 271 (74.9 %) pacientes tuvieron melanoma acral y 49 (13.5 %) melanoma nodular. El 56.6 % de los pacientes se encontró en etapa clínica [EC] III), 269 (74.3 %) tenía ulceración y 15 (4.1 %) márgenes positivos. Las variables asociadas con menor supervivencia global [SG] fueron la EC (p < 0.001), Breslow (p = 0.044), ulceración (p = 0.004), mitosis (p < 0.001) y margen < 2 cm (p < 0.001) . En el análisis multivariante los factores que influyen en SG fueron la EC, mitosis y el margen quirúrgico. CONCLUSIONES: En pacientes con melanomas gruesos la SG es influida por un margen positive, mitosis y EC.

Melanosis coli: A comprehensive review.

Melanosis coli (MC) is a common condition characterized by a black or brown pigment deposited in the colorectal mucosa. It is a reversible condition that is influenced by many factors, such as living habits and bowel function. However, the epidemiology and etiology of MC are still unclear. Most studies show that there is a significant correlation between the use of anthraquinone laxatives and the occurrence of MC. At present, the mechanism of the apoptosis theory is widely recognized as regards the pathogenesis of MC. There is no specific clinical manifestation of MC, and its diagnosis is mainly based on a complimentary examination, such as endoscopic and histopathological tests. General treatment, such as changing living habits, is preferred, and medical or surgical treatment should not be considered in the absence of serious malignancy. The aim of this review is to systematically present and outline the concepts of the epidemiology, etiology, histopathology, pathogenesis, clinical manifestations, diagnosis and treatment of MC, in order to improve the understanding of this condition.

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma with minimal extrathyroidal extension. Has it so indolent course to require a less aggressive treatment? / Microcarcinoma papilar de tiroides con extensión extratiroidea mínima. ¿Tiene un curso tan indolente para precisar un tratamiento menos intensivo?

BACKGROUND: Although the incidence of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) has increased in recent decades, the role played by minimal extrathyroidal extension (mETE) in the prognosis of PTMC is still unclear. The aim of this study is to analyse the factors associated with PTMC and mETE and the long-term prognosis of PTMC. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study with a population consisting of patients with a histological diagnosis of PTMC. We excluded patients who had previously undergone thyroid surgery, those who had other synchronous malignancies, those with an ectopic location of the PTMC and those lost to follow-up within 2years. We compared group 1 (PTMC without extrathyroidal extension) versus group 2 (PTMC with mETE) and performed a multivariate analysis. RESULTS: We observed PTMC with mETE in 11.2% (n=18) of the patients. In the multivariate analysis, mETE was associated with an age ≥45 years (OR, 4.383; 95% CI 1.051-18.283, p=.043), a tumour size ≥8mm (OR, 5.913; 95% CI 1.795-19.481; p=.003), bilaterality (OR, 4.430; 95% CI 1.294-15.173; p=.018) and metastatic lymph nodes (OR, 12.588; 95% CI 2.919-54.280; p=.001). During a mean follow-up of 119.8±65 months, one recurrence was detected in group 2 (0% vs. 5.6%; p=.112), but none of the patients died due to the disease. Disease-free survival was lower in group 2 (124.9±5.6 vs. 97.4±10.3 months; p=.034). CONCLUSIONS: The mETE of MCPT is a factor of worse prognosis, associated with the presence of metastatic lymph nodes and lower disease-free survival.

Frequency, profile and results of patients with acute heart failure transferred directly to home hospitalisation from emergency departments. / Frecuencia, perfil y resultados de los pacientes con insuficiencia cardiaca aguda que ingresan directamente en hospitalización a domicilio desde urgencias.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the frequency, clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) transferred directly from emergency departments to home hospitalisation (HH) and to compare them with those hospitalised in internal medicine (IM) or short-stay units (SSU). METHOD: We included patients with AHF transferred to HH by hospitals that considered this option during the Epidemiology of Acute Heart Failure in Spanish Emergency Departments (EAHFE) 4-5-6 Registries and compared them with patients admitted to IM or SSU in these centres. We compared the adjusted all-cause mortality at 1 year and adverse events 30 days after discharge. RESULTS: The study included 1473 patients (HH/IM/SSU: 68/979/384). The HH rate was 4.7% (95% CI, 3.8-6.0%). The patients in HH had few differences compared with those hospitalised in IM and SSUs. The HH mortality was 1.5%, and the HH median stay was 7.5 days (IQR, 4.5-12), similar to that of IM (median stay, 8 days; IQR, 5-13; p=.106) and longer than that of SSU (median stay, 4 days; IQR, 3-7; p<.001). The all-cause mortality at 1 year for HH did not differ from that of IM (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.73-1.14) or SSU (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.46-1.27); however, the emergency department readmission rate during the 30 days postdischarge was lower than that of IM (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.25-0.97) and SSU (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.19-0.74). There were no differences in the need for new hospitalisations or in the 30-day mortality rate. CONCLUSIONS: Direct transfer from the emergency department to HH is infrequent despite being a safe option for a certain patient profile with AHF.

Usefulness of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte, monocyte-to-lymphocyte and lymphocyte-to-platelet ratios for the prognosis of COVID-19-associated complications.

INTRODUCTION: Various biomarkers based on blood counts have been useful for the prognosis of patients critically ill with COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To describe the usefulness of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte (MLR) and lymphocyte-to-platelet (LPR) ratios for the prognosis of mortality and ventilatory support requirement for COVID-19. METHOD: Retrospective cohort of clinical records of patients with COVID-19 who required hospital care. RESULTS: One-hundred and -twenty-five cases were analyzed; mean age was 51 years, and 60 % were of the male gender; 21.6 % had type 2 diabetes mellitus, and 18.4 % had hypertension. Mean leukocyte count was 9.5 x 103/µL, with a neutrophil mean of 8.0 x 103/µL. Mean NLR was 12.01, while for MLR it was 0.442, and for LPR, 373.07. Regarding the area under the curve, the following values were recorded for mortality: 0.594 for NLR, 0.628 for MLR and 0.505 for LPR; as for mechanical ventilation, the values were 0.581 for NLR, 0.619 for MLR and 0.547 for LPR. In the univariate analysis, an NLR value > 13 (OR: 2.750, p = 0.001) and an MLR of > 0.5 (OR: 2.069, p = 0.047) were associated with mortality; LPR showed no impact on mortality or respiratory support. CONCLUSION: NLR and MLR are useful for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19.

INTRODUCCIÓN: Diversos biomarcadores basados en conteos sanguíneos han sido de utilidad para el pronóstico de los pacientes en estado crítico por COVID-19. OBJETIVO: Describir la utilidad de los índices neutrófilo/linfocito (INL), monocito/linfocito (IML) y linfocito/plaqueta (IPL) para el pronóstico de la mortalidad y necesidad de soporte ventilatorio por COVID-19. MÉTODO: Cohorte retrospectiva de registros clínicos de pacientes con COVID-19 que requirieron atención hospitalaria. RESULTADOS: Se analizaron 125 casos, la edad media fue de 51 años y 60 %, del sexo masculino; 21.6 % padecía diabetes mellitus tipo 2 y 18.4 %, hipertensión. La media de leucocitos fue 9.5 × 103/µL y la de neutrófilos, de 8.0 × 103/µL. La media del INL fue de 12.01; del IML, de 0.442 y del IPL, de 373.07. Respecto al área bajo la curva se registraron los siguientes valores en cuanto a mortalidad: INL, 0.594; IML, 0.628 e ILP, 0.505; en cuanto a ventilación mecánica: INL, 0.581; IML, 0.619 e ILP, 0.547. En el análisis univariado, INL > 13 (RM = 2.750, p = 0.001) e IML > 0.5 (RM = 2.069, p = 0.047) se asociaron a mortalidad; ILP no mostró impacto en la mortalidad ni en el soporte respiratorio. CONCLUSIÓN: INL e IML son de utilidad para predecir la mortalidad en pacientes con COVID-19.

The effect of diagnostic delay attributable to the healthcare system on the prognosis of colorectal cancer. / Efecto de la demora atribuible al sistema sanitario en el pronóstico del cáncer colorrectal.

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the effect of a delay attributable to the healthcare system on a consecutive cohort of outpatients diagnosed with colorectal cancer in the healthcare area of Ourense (Spain). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study that included patients diagnosed between 2009 and 2017. Delay attributable to the healthcare system was defined as the time between the first consultation with symptoms and the diagnostic confirmation. A logistic regression model was performed to evaluate the relationship between stage IV CRC and diagnostic delay. To analyse which variables were associated independently with overall mortality and mortality due to CRC we used a Cox regression model. RESULTS: 575 patients were included (men 64.5%, age 71.9 ± 11.5 years), with a delay attributable to the healthcare system of 115 ± 153 days. None of the variables analysed were associated with tumour stage at diagnosis. With a mean follow-up of 30.6 ± 21 months, 121 patients died (79.3% due to CRC). The variables independently associated with CRC-related mortality were metastatic CRC (HR 50.65, 95% CI 12.28-209), age (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.05) and colonoscopy requested from the Primary Healthcare level (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.36-0.88). CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic delay attributable to the healthcare system is not related to the prognosis or stage of CRC. However, a direct referral to colonoscopy from the Primary Healthcare level reduces the risk of mortality in our patients.