RESUMO
Arctic warming leading to reduced summertime sea-ice is likely to lead to increased local shipping especially along the Northeast Passage near the northern coasts of Norway and Russia, which are shorter than the traditional southerly routes. Here, the regional chemistry-transport model WRF-Chem is used to examine the effects of shipping emissions on levels of air pollutants and deposition fluxes over the Barents Sea both for present-day and future conditions, based on a high growth scenario. Present-day shipping emissions are found to have already substantial effects on ozone concentrations, but limited effects on sulphate and nitrate aerosols. Predicted future changes in ozone are also important, particularly in regions with low nitrogen oxide concentrations, and results are sensitive to the way in which diversion shipping is distributed due to non-linear effects on photochemical ozone production. Whilst modest future increases in sulphate and nitrate aerosols are predicted, large enhancements in dry deposition of sulphur dioxide and wet deposition of nitrogen compounds to the Barents Sea are predicted. Such levels of future nitrogen deposition would represent a significant atmospheric source of oceanic nitrogen affecting sensitive marine ecosystems.