Optimizing spatio-temporal correlation structures for modeling food security in Africa: a simulation-based investigation.

This study investigates the impact of spatio- temporal correlation using four spatio-temporal models: Spatio-Temporal Poisson Linear Trend Model (SPLTM), Poisson Temporal Model (TMS), Spatio-Temporal Poisson Anova Model (SPAM), and Spatio-Temporal Poisson Separable Model (STSM) concerning food security and nutrition in Africa. Evaluating model goodness of fit using the Watanabe Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) and assessing bias through root mean square error and mean absolute error values revealed a consistent monotonic pattern. SPLTM consistently demonstrates a propensity for overestimating food security, while TMS exhibits a diverse bias profile, shifting between overestimation and underestimation based on varying correlation settings. SPAM emerges as a beacon of reliability, showcasing minimal bias and WAIC across diverse scenarios, while STSM consistently underestimates food security, particularly in regions marked by low to moderate spatio-temporal correlation. SPAM consistently outperforms other models, making it a top choice for modeling food security and nutrition dynamics in Africa. This research highlights the impact of spatial and temporal correlations on food security and nutrition patterns and provides guidance for model selection and refinement. Researchers are encouraged to meticulously evaluate the biases and goodness of fit characteristics of models, ensuring their alignment with the specific attributes of their data and research goals. This knowledge empowers researchers to select models that offer reliability and consistency, enhancing the applicability of their findings.

Power analyses for measurement model misspecification and response shift detection with structural equation modeling.

PURPOSE: Statistical power for response shift detection with structural equation modeling (SEM) is currently underreported. The present paper addresses this issue by providing worked-out examples and syntaxes of power calculations relevant for the statistical tests associated with the SEM approach for response shift detection. METHODS: Power calculations and related sample-size requirements are illustrated for two modelling goals: (1) to detect misspecification in the measurement model, and (2) to detect response shift. Power analyses for hypotheses regarding (exact) overall model fit and the presence of response shift are demonstrated in a step-by-step manner. The freely available and user-friendly R-package lavaan and shiny-app 'power4SEM' are used for the calculations. RESULTS: Using the SF-36 as an example, we illustrate the specification of null-hypothesis (H0) and alternative hypothesis (H1) models to calculate chi-square based power for the test on overall model fit, the omnibus test on response shift, and the specific test on response shift. For example, we show that a sample size of 506 is needed to reject an incorrectly specified measurement model, when the actual model has two-medium sized cross loadings. We also illustrate power calculation based on the RMSEA index for approximate fit, where H0 and H1 are defined in terms of RMSEA-values. CONCLUSION: By providing accessible resources to perform power analyses and emphasizing the different power analyses associated with different modeling goals, we hope to facilitate the uptake of power analyses for response shift detection with SEM and thereby enhance the stringency of response shift research.

Validity of Inertial Measurement Units to Measure Lower-Limb Kinematics and Pelvic Orientation at Submaximal and Maximal Effort Running Speeds.

Inertial measurement units (IMUs) have been validated for measuring sagittal plane lower-limb kinematics during moderate-speed running, but their accuracy at maximal speeds remains less understood. This study aimed to assess IMU measurement accuracy during high-speed running and maximal effort sprinting on a curved non-motorized treadmill using discrete (Bland-Altman analysis) and continuous (root mean square error [RMSE], normalised RMSE, Pearson correlation, and statistical parametric mapping analysis [SPM]) metrics. The hip, knee, and ankle flexions and the pelvic orientation (tilt, obliquity, and rotation) were captured concurrently from both IMU and optical motion capture systems, as 20 participants ran steadily at 70%, 80%, 90%, and 100% of their maximal effort sprinting speed (5.36 ± 0.55, 6.02 ± 0.60, 6.66 ± 0.71, and 7.09 ± 0.73 m/s, respectively). Bland-Altman analysis indicated a systematic bias within ±1° for the peak pelvic tilt, rotation, and lower-limb kinematics and -3.3° to -4.1° for the pelvic obliquity. The SPM analysis demonstrated a good agreement in the hip and knee flexion angles for most phases of the stride cycle, albeit with significant differences noted around the ipsilateral toe-off. The RMSE ranged from 4.3° (pelvic obliquity at 70% speed) to 7.8° (hip flexion at 100% speed). Correlation coefficients ranged from 0.44 (pelvic tilt at 90%) to 0.99 (hip and knee flexions at all speeds). Running speed minimally but significantly affected the RMSE for the hip and ankle flexions. The present IMU system is effective for measuring lower-limb kinematics during sprinting, but the pelvic orientation estimation was less accurate.

Comparison of statistical models to predict age-standardized cancer incidence in Switzerland.

This study compares the performance of statistical methods for predicting age-standardized cancer incidence, including Poisson generalized linear models, age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series, and simple linear models. The methods are evaluated via leave-future-out cross-validation, and performance is assessed using the normalized root mean square error, interval score, and coverage of prediction intervals. Methods were applied to cancer incidence from the three Swiss cancer registries of Geneva, Neuchatel, and Vaud combined, considering the five most frequent cancer sites: breast, colorectal, lung, prostate, and skin melanoma and bringing all other sites together in a final group. Best overall performance was achieved by ARIMA models, followed by linear regression models. Prediction methods based on model selection using the Akaike information criterion resulted in overfitting. The widely used APC and BAPC models were found to be suboptimal for prediction, particularly in the case of a trend reversal in incidence, as it was observed for prostate cancer. In general, we do not recommend predicting cancer incidence for periods far into the future but rather updating predictions regularly.

Modeling and forecasting the total number of cases and deaths due to pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has appeared as the predominant disease of the 21st century at the end of 2019 and was a drastic start with thousands of casualties and the COVID-19 victims in 2020. Due to the drastic effect, COVID-19 scientists are trying to work on pandemic diseases and Governments are interested in the development of methodologies that will minimize the losses and speed up the process of cure by providing vaccines and treatment for such pandemics. The development of a new vaccine for any pandemic requires long in vitro and in vivo trials to use. Thus the strategies require understanding how the pandemic is spreading in terms of affected cases and casualties occurring from this disease, here we developed a forecasting model that can predict the no of cases and deaths due to pandemic and that can help the researcher, government, and other stakeholders to devise their strategies so that the damages can be minimized. This model can also be used for the judicial distribution of resources as it provides the estimates of the number of casualties and number of deaths with high accuracy, Government and policymakers on the basis of forecasted value can plan in a better way. The model efficiency is discussed on the basis of the available dataset of John Hopkins University repository in the period when the disease was first reported in the six countries till the mid of May 2020, the model was developed on the basis of this data, and then it is tested by forecasting the no of deaths and cases for next 7 days, where the proposed strategy provided excellent forecasting. The forecast models are developed for six countries including Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Iran, Italy, and China using polynomial regression of degrees 3-5. But the models are analyzed up to the 6th-degree and the suitable models are selected based on higher adjusted R-square (R2 ) and lower root-mean-square error and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The values of R2 are greater than 99% for all countries other than China whereas for China this R2 was 97%. The high values of R2 and Low value of MAPE statistics increase the validity of proposed models to forecast the total no cases and total no of deaths in all countries. Iran, Italy, and Afghanistan also show a mild decreasing trend but the number of cases is far higher than the decrease percentage. Although India is expected to have a consistent result, more or less it depicts some other biasing factors which should be figured out in separate research.

Research on a Real-Time Estimation Method of Vehicle Sideslip Angle Based on EKF.

In this article, a real-time vehicle sideslip angle state observer is proposed, which is based on the EKF algorithm. Firstly, based on a 2-DOF dynamical model and the tire lateral force model, the vehicle sideslip angle state observer model with a self-adapted truncation procedure is established by combining the EKF and the least squares methods. The calculation of the Jacobi matrix in the time domain is transformed into a calculation in the frequency domain. A self-adapted update noise estimation method and an initial value setting strategy are proposed as well. Finally, a hardware-in-the-loop simulation is carried out by Matlab/Simulink-CarSim-dSPACE, and the real-time reliability of the estimation method is verified and analyzed by RMSE.

Method for Improving Range Resolution of Indoor FMCW Radar Systems Using DNN.

Various studies on object detection are being conducted, and in this regard, research on frequency-modulated continuous wave (FMCW) RADAR is being actively conducted. FMCW RADAR requires high-distance resolution to accurately detect objects. However, if the distance resolution is high, a high-modulation bandwidth is required, which has a prohibitively high cost. To address this issue, we propose a two-step algorithm to detect the location of an object through DNN using many low-cost FMCW RADARs. The algorithm first infers the sector by measuring the distance to the object for each FMCW RADAR and then measures the position through the grid according to the inferred sector. This improves the distance resolution beyond the modulation bandwidth. Additionally, to detect multiple targets, we propose a Gaussian filter. Multiple targets are detected through an ordered-statistic constant false-alarm rate (OS-CFAR), and there is an 11% probability that multiple targets cannot be detected. In the lattice structure proposed in this paper, the performance of the proposed algorithm compared to those in existing works was confirmed with respect to the cost function. The difference in performance versus complexity was also confirmed when the proposed algorithm had the same complexity and the same performance, and it was confirmed that there was a performance improvement of up to five-fold compared to those in previous papers. In addition, multi-target detection was shown in this paper. Through MATLAB simulation and actual measurement on a single target, RMSEs were 0.3542 and 0.41002 m, respectively, and through MATLAB simulation and actual measurement on multiple targets, RMSEs were confirmed to be 0.548265 and 0.762542 m, respectively. Through this, it was confirmed that this algorithm works in real RADAR.

Model-Based Correction of Temperature-Dependent Measurement Errors in Frequency Domain Electromagnetic Induction (FDEMI) Systems.

Data measured using electromagnetic induction (EMI) systems are known to be susceptible to measurement influences associated with time-varying external ambient factors. Temperature variation is one of the most prominent factors causing drift in EMI data, leading to non-reproducible measurement results. Typical approaches to mitigate drift effects in EMI instruments rely on a temperature drift calibration, where the instrument is heated up to specific temperatures in a controlled environment and the observed drift is determined to derive a static thermal apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) drift correction. In this study, a novel correction method is presented that models the dynamic characteristics of drift using a low-pass filter (LPF) and uses it for correction. The method is developed and tested using a customized EMI device with an intercoil spacing of 1.2 m, optimized for low drift and equipped with ten temperature sensors that simultaneously measure the internal ambient temperature across the device. The device is used to perform outdoor calibration measurements over a period of 16 days for a wide range of temperatures. The measured temperature-dependent ECa drift of the system without corrections is approximately 2.27 mSm-1K-1, with a standard deviation (std) of only 30 µSm-1K-1 for a temperature variation of around 30 K. The use of the novel correction method reduces the overall root mean square error (RMSE) for all datasets from 15.7 mSm-1 to a value of only 0.48 mSm-1. In comparison, a method using a purely static characterization of drift could only reduce the error to an RMSE of 1.97 mSm-1. The results show that modeling the dynamic thermal characteristics of the drift helps to improve the accuracy by a factor of four compared to a purely static characterization. It is concluded that the modeling of the dynamic thermal characteristics of EMI systems is relevant for improved drift correction.

Applicability evaluation of a demand-controlled ventilation system in livestock.

The distribution of agricultural and livestock products has been limited owing to the recent rapid population growth and the COVID-19 pandemic; this has led to an increase in the demand for food security. The livestock industry is interested in increasing the growth performance of livestock that has resulted in the need for a mechanical ventilation system that can create a comfortable indoor environment. In this study, the applicability of demand-controlled ventilation (DCV) to energy-efficient mechanical ventilation control in a pigsty was analyzed. To this end, an indoor temperature and CO2 concentration prediction model was developed, and the indoor environment and energy consumption behavior based on the application of DCV control were analyzed. As a result, when DCV control was applied, the energy consumption was smaller than that of the existing control method; however, when it was controlled in an hourly time step, the increase in indoor temperature was large, and several sections exceeded the maximum temperature. In addition, when it was controlled in 15-min time steps, the increase in indoor temperature and energy consumption decreased; however, it was not energy efficient on days with high-outdoor temperature and pig heat.

Effect of Enhanced ADAS Camera Capability on Traffic State Estimation.

Traffic flow data, such as flow, density and speed, are crucial for transportation planning and traffic system operation. Recently, a novel traffic state estimating method was proposed using the distance to a leading vehicle measured by an advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) camera. This study examined the effect of an ADAS camera with enhanced capabilities on traffic state estimation using image-based vehicle identification technology. Considering the realistic distance error of the ADAS camera from the field experiment, a microscopic simulation model, VISSIM, was employed with multiple underlying parameters such as the number of lanes, traffic demand, the penetration rate of ADAS vehicles and the spatiotemporal range of the estimation area. Although the enhanced functions of the ADAS camera did not affect the accuracy of the traffic state estimates significantly, the ADAS camera can be used for traffic state estimation. Furthermore, the vehicle identification distance of the ADAS camera and traffic conditions with more lanes did not always ensure better accuracy of the estimates. Instead, it is recommended that transportation planners and traffic engineering practitioners carefully select the relevant parameters and their range to ensure a certain level of accuracy for traffic state estimates that suit their purposes.

Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on electricity demand in the UK based on multivariate time series forecasting with Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory.

Due to lockdown measures taken by the UK government during the Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the national electricity demand profile presented a notably different performance. The Coronavirus disease 2019 crisis has provided a unique opportunity to investigate how such a landscape-scale lockdown can influence the national electricity system. However, the impacts of social and economic restrictions on daily electricity demands are still poorly understood. This paper investigated how the UK-wide electricity demand was influenced during the Coronavirus disease 2019 crisis based on multivariate time series forecasting with Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory, to comprehend its correlations with containment measures, weather conditions, and renewable energy supplies. A deep-learning-based predictive model was established for daily electricity demand time series forecasting, which was trained by multiple features, including the number of coronavirus tests (smoothed), wind speed, ambient temperature, biomass, solar & wind power supplies, and historical electricity demand. Besides, the effects of Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on the Net-Zero target of 2050 were also studied through an interlinked approach.

Analytical power calculations for structural equation modeling: A tutorial and Shiny app.

Conducting a power analysis can be challenging for researchers who plan to analyze their data using structural equation models (SEMs), particularly when Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain power. In this tutorial, we explain how power calculations without Monte Carlo methods for the χ2 test and the RMSEA tests of (not-)close fit can be conducted using the Shiny app "power4SEM". power4SEM facilitates power calculations for SEM using two methods that are not computationally intensive and that focus on model fit instead of the statistical significance of (functions of) parameters. These are the method proposed by Satorra and Saris (Psychometrika 50(1), 83-90, 1985) for power calculations of the likelihood ratio test, and that described by MacCallum, Browne, and Sugawara (Psychol Methods 1(2) 130-149, 1996) for RMSEA-based power calculations. We illustrate the use of power4SEM with examples of power analyses for path models, factor models, and a latent growth model.

Industrial application of QbD and NIR chemometric models in quality improvement of immediate release tablets.

Quality by Design (QbD) and chemometric models are different sides of the same coin. While QbD models utilize experimentally designed settings for optimization of some quality attributes, these settings can also be utilized for chemometric prediction of the same attributes. We aimed to synchronize optimization of comparative dissolution results of carvedilol immediate release tablets with chemometric prediction of dissolution profile and content uniformity of the product. As an industrial application, selection of variables for optimization was done by performing risk assessment utilizing the archived product records at the pharmaceutical site. Experimental tablets were produced with 20 different settings with the variables being contents of sucrose, sodium starch glycolate, lactose monohydrate, and avicel Ph 101. Contents of the excipients were modelled with F1 dissimilarity factor and F2 similarity factor in HCL, acetate, and USP dissolution media to determine the design space. We initiatively utilized Partial Least Square based Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) to explore how the excipients and their NIR records explained dissolution of the product. Finally, the optimized formula was utilized with varied content of carvedilol for chemometric prediction of the content uniformity.

UGM: a more stable procedure for large-scale multiple testing problems, new solutions to identify oncogene.

Variations of gene expression levels play an important role in tumors. There are numerous methods to identify differentially expressed genes in high-throughput sequencing. Several algorithms endeavor to identify distinctive genetic patterns susceptable to particular diseases. Although these processes have been proved successful, the probability that the number of non-differentially expressed genes measured by false discovery rate (FDR) has a large standard deviation, and the misidentification rate (type I error) grows rapidly when the number of genes to be detected become larger. In this study we developed a new method, Unit Gamma Measurement (UGM), accounting for multiple hypotheses test statistics distribution, which could reduce the dependency problem. Simulated expression profile data and breast cancer RNA-Seq data were utilized to testify the accuracy of UGM. The results show that the number of non-differentially expressed genes identified by the UGM is very close to the real-evidence data, and the UGM also has a smaller standard error, range, quartile range and RMS error. In addition, the UGM can be used to screen many breast cancer-associated genes, such as BRCA1, BRCA2, PTEN, BRIP1, etc., provides better accuracy, robustness and efficiency, the method of identification differentially expressed genes in high-throughput sequencing.

Closing the Wearable Gap-Part V: Development of a Pressure-Sensitive Sock Utilizing Soft Sensors.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of compressible soft robotic sensors (C-SRS) in determining plantar pressure to infer vertical and shear forces in wearable technology: A ground reaction pressure sock (GRPS). To assess pressure relationships between C-SRS, pressure cells on a BodiTrakTM Vector Plate, and KistlerTM Force Plates, thirteen volunteers performed three repetitions of three different movements: squats, shifting center-of-pressure right to left foot, and shifting toes to heels with C-SRS in both anterior-posterior (A/P) and medial-lateral (M/L) sensor orientations. Pearson correlation coefficient of C-SRS to BodiTrakTM Vector Plate resulted in an average R-value greater than 0.70 in 618/780 (79%) of sensor to cell comparisons. An average R-value greater than 0.90 was seen in C-SRS comparison to KistlerTM Force Plates during shifting right to left. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was conducted to identify and estimate future C-SRS data. No significant differences were seen in sensor orientation. Sensors in the A/P orientation reported a mean R2 value of 0.952 and 0.945 in the M/L sensor orientation, reducing the effectiveness to infer shear forces. Given the high R values, the use of C-SRSs to infer normal pressures appears to make the development of the GRPS feasible.

A 6-minute sub-maximal run test to predict VO2 max.

Maximal oxygen uptake ([Formula: see text] max) is a key indicator to assess health as well as sports performance. Currently, maximal exercise testing is the most accurate measure of maximal aerobic power, since submaximal approaches are still imprecise. In this paper, we propose a new method to predict [Formula: see text] max from a submaximal, low intensity, test in sports men and women. 182 males and 108 females from the High Performance Center of Pontevedra (Spain), aged 10-46 years old, with a [Formula: see text] max between 30.1 and 81.2 mL·min-1·kg-1, completed a maximal incremental test to volitional exhaustion. The test began at a speed of 6 km·h-1 and increased by 0.25 km·h-1 every 15 seconds. Using the data gathered during the first 6 minutes of the test, two different regression models were adjusted using functional data analysis and a traditional linear regression model with scalar covariates. The functional regression model obtained the best results, adjusted r2 = 0.845 and RMSE = 2.8 mL·min-1·kg-1, but the linear regression model also obtained a good fit, adjusted r2 = 0.798 and RMSE = 3.5 mL·min-1·kg-1. Both methods are more accurate than classical submaximal tests, although oxygen consumption needs to be measured during the test.

Adaptation and Retention of a Perceptual-Motor Task in Children: Effects of a Single Bout of Intense Endurance Exercise.

We assessed the effect of an acute intense exercise bout on the adaptation and consolidation of a visuomotor adaptation task in children. We also sought to assess if exercise and learning task presentation order could affect task consolidation. Thirty-three children were randomly assigned to one of three groups: (a) exercise before the learning task, (b) exercise after the learning task, and (c) only learning task. Baseline performance was assessed by practicing the learning task in a 0° rotation condition. Afterward, a 60° rotation-adaptation set was applied followed by three rotated retention sets after 1 hr, 24 hr, and 7 days. For the exercise groups, exercise was presented before or after the motor adaptation. Results showed no group differences during the motor adaptation while exercise seemed to enhance motor consolidation. Greater consolidation enhancement was found in participants who exercised before the learning task. Our data support the importance of exercise to improve motor-memory consolidation in children.

Quality assessment of fresh tea leaves by estimating total polyphenols using near infrared spectroscopy.

This paper reports on the development of an integrated leaf quality inspecting system using near infrared reflectance (NIR) spectroscopy for quick and in situ estimation of total polyphenol (TP) content of fresh tea leaves, which is the most important quality indicator of tea. The integrated system consists of a heating system to dry the fresh tea leaves to the level of 3-4% moisture, a grinding and sieving system fitted with a 250 micron mesh sieve to make fine powder from the dried leaf. Samples thus prepared are transferred to the NIR beam and TP is measured instantaneously. The wavelength region, the number of partial least squares (PLS) component and the choice of preprocessing methods are optimized simultaneously by leave-one-sample out cross-validation during the model calibration. In order to measure polyphenol percentage in situ, the regression model is developed using PLS regression algorithm on NIR spectra of fifty-five samples. The efficacy of the model developed is evaluated by the root mean square error of cross-validation, root mean square error of prediction and correlation coefficient (R2) which are obtained as 0.1722, 0.5162 and 0.95, respectively.

Medium optimization for pyrroloquinoline quinone (PQQ) production by Methylobacillus sp. zju323 using response surface methodology and artificial neural network-genetic algorithm.

Methylobacillus sp. zju323 was adopted to improve the biosynthesis of pyrroloquinoline quinone (PQQ) by systematic optimization of the fermentation medium. The Plackett-Burman design was implemented to screen for the key medium components for the PQQ production. CoCl2 · 6H2O, ρ-amino benzoic acid, and MgSO4 · 7H2O were found capable of enhancing the PQQ production most significantly. A five-level three-factor central composite design was used to investigate the direct and interactive effects of these variables. Both response surface methodology (RSM) and artificial neural network-genetic algorithm (ANN-GA) were used to predict the PQQ production and to optimize the medium composition. The results showed that the medium optimized by ANN-GA was better than that by RSM in maximizing PQQ production and the experimental PQQ concentration in the ANN-GA-optimized medium was improved by 44.3% compared with that in the unoptimized medium. Further study showed that this ANN-GA-optimized medium was also effective in improving PQQ production by fed-batch mode, reaching the highest PQQ accumulation of 232.0 mg/L, which was about 47.6% increase relative to that in the original medium. The present work provided an optimized medium and developed a fed-batch strategy which might be potentially applicable in industrial PQQ production.

Workplace nutrition knowledge questionnaire: psychometric validation and application.

Workplace dietary intervention studies in low- and middle-income countries using psychometrically sound measures are scarce. This study aimed to validate a nutrition knowledge questionnaire (NQ) and its utility in evaluating the changes in knowledge among participants of a Nutrition Education Program (NEP) conducted at the workplace. A NQ was tested for construct validity, internal consistency and discriminant validity. It was applied in a NEP conducted at six workplaces, in order to evaluate the effect of an interactive or a lecture-based education programme on nutrition knowledge. Four knowledge domains comprising twenty-three items were extracted in the final version of the NQ. Internal consistency of each domain was significant, with Kuder-Richardson formula values>0·60. These four domains presented a good fit in the confirmatory factor analysis. In the discriminant validity test, both the Expert and Lay groups scored>0·52, but the Expert group scores were significantly higher than those of the Lay group in all domains. When the NQ was applied in the NEP, the overall questionnaire scores increased significantly because of the NEP intervention, in both groups (P<0·001). However, the increase in NQ scores was significantly higher in the interactive group than in the lecture group, in the overall score (P=0·008) and in the healthy eating domain (P=0·009). The validated NQ is a short and useful tool to assess gain in nutrition knowledge among participants of NEP at the workplace. According to the NQ, an interactive nutrition education had a higher impact on nutrition knowledge than a lecture programme.