Aggregate fluctuations in adaptive production networks.

To counteract the adverse effects of shocks, such as the global pandemic, on the economy, governments have discussed policies to improve the resilience of supply chains by reducing dependence on foreign suppliers. In this paper, we develop and quantify an adaptive production network model to study network resilience and the consequences of reshoring of supply chains. In our model, firms exit due to exogenous shocks or the propagation of shocks through the network, while firms can replace suppliers they have lost due to exit subject to switching costs and search frictions. Applying our model to a large international firm-level production network dataset, we find that restricting buyer-supplier links via reshoring policies reduces output and increases volatility and that volatility can be amplified through network adaptivity.

Month-to-month all-cause mortality forecasting: a method allowing for changes in seasonal patterns.

Forecasting of seasonal mortality patterns can provide useful information for planning health-care demand and capacity. Timely mortality forecasts are needed during severe winter spikes and/or pandemic waves to guide policy-making and public health decisions. In this article, we propose a flexible method for forecasting all-cause mortality in real time considering short-term changes in seasonal patterns within an epidemiologic year. All-cause mortality data have the advantage of being available with less delay than cause-specific mortality data. In this study, we use all-cause monthly death counts obtained from the national statistical offices of Denmark, France, Spain, and Sweden from epidemic seasons 2012-2013 through 2021-2022 to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The method forecasts deaths 1 month ahead, based on their expected ratio to the next month. Prediction intervals are obtained via bootstrapping. The forecasts accurately predict the winter mortality peaks before the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the method predicts mortality less accurately during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, it captures the aspects of later waves better than other traditional methods. The method is attractive for health researchers and governmental offices for aiding public health responses because it uses minimal input data, makes simple and intuitive assumptions, and provides accurate forecasts both during seasonal influenza epidemics and during novel virus pandemics.

Sex differences among subcutaneous implantable cardioverter-defibrillator recipients: a propensity-matched, multicentre, international analysis from the i-SUSI project.

AIMS: Women have been historically underrepresented in implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) trials. No data on sex differences regarding subcutaneous ICDs (S-ICD) carriers have been described. Aim of our study was to investigate sex-related differences among unselected S-ICD recipients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive patients enrolled in the multicentre, international i-SUSI registry were analysed. Comparisons between sexes were performed using a 1:1 propensity matching adjusted analysis for age, body mass index (BMI), left ventricular function, and substrate. The primary outcome was the rate of appropriate shocks during follow-up. Inappropriate shocks and other device-related complications were deemed secondary outcomes. A total of 1698 patients were extracted from the i-SUSI registry; 399 (23.5%) were females. After propensity matching, two cohorts of 374 patients presenting similar baseline characteristics were analysed. Despite similar periprocedural characteristics and a matched BMI, women resulted at lower risk of conversion failure as per PRAETORIAN score (73.4% vs. 81.3%, P = 0.049). Over a median follow-up time of 26.5 [12.7-42.5] months, appropriate shocks were more common in the male cohort (rate/year 3.4% vs. 1.7%; log-rank P = 0.049), while no significant differences in device-related complications (rate/year: 6.3% vs. 5.8%; log-rank P = 0.595) and inappropriate shocks (rate/year: 4.3% vs. 3.1%; log-rank P = 0.375) were observed. After controlling for confounders, sex remained significantly associated with the primary outcome (aHR 1.648; CI 0.999-2.655, P = 0.048), while not resulting predictor of inappropriate shocks and device-related complications. CONCLUSION: In a propensity-matched cohort of S-ICD recipients, women are less likely to experience appropriate ICD therapy, while not showing higher risk of device-related complications. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0473876.

Incidence, implications, and management of sense-B-noise failure in subcutaneous cardioverter-defibrillator patients: insights from a large multicentre registry.

AIMS: Subcutaneous implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (S-ICDs) offer potentially distinct advantages over transvenous defibrillator systems. Recent randomized trials showed significantly lower lead failure rates than transvenous ICD. Still, S-ICDs remain associated with the risk of inappropriate shocks (IAS). While previous studies have reported varying causes of IAS, this study explores a rare cause of IAS, referred to as 'sense-B-noise.' It was recently described in case series, but its incidence has not been studied in a large cohort of S-ICD patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We retrospectively reviewed data from patients implanted with S-ICD models 1010, A209, and A219 between October 2009 and July 2023 across nine centres in Europe and the USA. The analysis concentrated on determining the incidence and understanding the implications of sense-B-noise events. Sense-B-noise represents a rare manifestation of distinct electrogram abnormalities within the primary and alternate sensing vectors. Data were collected from medical records, device telemetry, and manufacturer reports for investigation. This registry is registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05713708). Subcutaneous implantable cardioverter-defibrillator devices of the 1158 patients were analysed. The median follow-up time for all patients was 46 (IQR 23-64) months. In 107 patients (9.2%) ≥1 IAS was observed during follow-up. Sense-B-noise failure was diagnosed in six (0.5 and 5.6% of all IAS) patients, in all patients, the diagnosis was made after an IAS episode. Median lead dwell time in the affected patients was 23 (2-70) months. To resolve the sense-B-noise defect, in three patients reprogramming to the secondary vector was undertaken, and two patients underwent system removal with subsequent S-ICD reimplantation due to low amplitude in the secondary vector. In one patient, the secondary vector was initially programmed, and subsequently, an S-ICD system exchange was performed due to T-wave-oversensing IAS episodes. CONCLUSION: This multicentre analysis' findings shed light on a rare but clinically highly significant adverse event in S-ICD therapy. To our knowledge, we provide the first systematic multicentre analysis investigating the incidence of sense-B-noise. Due to being difficult to diagnose and limited options for resolution, management of sense-B-noise is challenging. Complete system exchange may be the only option for some patients. Educating healthcare providers involved in S-ICD patient care is crucial for ensuring accurate diagnosis and effective management of sense-B-noise issues.

Is it safe to give birth with an activated implantable cardioverter-defibrillator: A multicentre observational study.

OBJECTIVE: Data and guidelines are lacking, so implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) are often deactivated during labour to prevent inappropriate shocks. This study aimed to ascertain the safety of an activated ICD during labour. DESIGN: An observational study was performed. SETTING: Dutch hospitals. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: A total of 41 childbirths were included of 26 patients who gave birth between February 2009 and November 2018 after receiving an ICD in our tertiary hospital. Five of these childbirths were attended by the research team between December 2018 and August 2020, during which the ICD remained active. METHODS: Groups were made based on ICD status during labour. Patients who gave birth with an activated ICD at least once were stratified to the activated ICD group. Patients' files were checked and patients received a questionnaire about childbirth perceptions and treatment preferences. The differences in ordinal data resulting from the questionnaire were calculated using a chi-square or Fisher's exact test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was inappropriate ICD therapy and occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias requiring treatment. RESULTS: During the 41 childbirths, no inappropriate shocks or ventricular arrhythmias occurred during labour. All patients in the activated ICD group (n = 13) preferred this setting, while 8 of the 13 patients in the deactivated ICD group preferred activation (p = 0.002). Reasons included avoiding hemodynamic monitoring, magnet placement, or labour induction to facilitate technician availability. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows no evidence that labour and birth in women with an activated ICD are unsafe, as there were no ventricular arrhythmias or inappropriate therapy. In addition, most patients prefer an activated ICD during labour.

Covid-19 vaccination: a mixed methods analysis of health system resilience in Latin America.

BACKGROUND: This paper discusses the stages of health system resilience (HSR) and the factors underlying differences in HSR during the covid-19 pandemic, especially the vaccination challenge. We studied the relationship between vaccination strategies and macro-context backgrounds in 21 Latin American countries. Our objective was to capture the impact of those aspects in the SR and identify potential improvements for future crises and for vaccination programs in general. METHODS: The study uses mixed-methods research to provide insights into how the countries' backgrounds and vaccination strategies impact the HSR. Particularly, we used explanatory sequential mixed methods, which entails a quantitative-qualitative two-phase sequence. The quantitative phase was conducted using cluster and variance analysis, in which the HSR was measured using as a proxy the covid-19 vaccination outcomes in three cut-offs of reaching 25%, 50%, and 75% of population coverage. This approach allows us to discriminate covid-19 vaccination progress by stages and contrast it to the qualitative stage, in which we performed a country-case analysis of the background conditions and the changes in vaccination strategies that occurred during the corresponding dates. RESULTS: The paper provides a rich comparative case analysis of countries, classifying them by early, prompt, and delayed performers. The results show that differences in vaccination performance are due to flexibility in adapting strategies, cooperation, and the ability to design multilevel solutions that consider the needs of various actors in the health ecosystem. These differences vary depending on the vaccination stage, which suggests the importance of acknowledging learning, diffusion, and feedback processes at the regional level. CONCLUSIONS: We identified the importance of societal well-being as an ideal country antecedent for high and sustained levels of performance in covid-19 vaccination. Whereas in other countries where the set-up and beginning phases were rough, the value of the operational decisions and the learning on the move regarding their own and their peers' trajectories were crucial and were reflected in performance improvement. A contribution of this study is that the above-mentioned analysis was done using vaccination coverage cut-off points that allow a performance view that takes into consideration the stages of the vaccination progress and the learning process that goes with it. As well as framing this into the HSR shock cycles that allow to differentiate the stages of resilience on which countries must act.

Smoothing consumption in times of illness: Household recourse mechanisms.

We study the welfare impacts of illness shocks on rural agricultural households in the semi-arid tropical and humid eastern regions of India. These regions are characterized by rainfed agriculture, missing markets for credit and insurance, and limited access to publicly funded healthcare infrastructure. We find that illness shocks increase households' medical expenditures and reduce wage income. However, aggregate non-medical, food, and non-food consumption expenditures are insensitive to illness shocks. Disaggregating illness by the age and the gender of the household members, we observe that illness in male children leads to the largest increase in medical expenditure, and illness in prime-aged adults leads to the largest decline in per-capita wage earnings. We also find illness shocks leading to changes in household dietary diversity, higher travel expenditures, and a compensating reduction in spending on education and entertainment. Analysis of risk-coping strategies reveals that households rely on transfers from kinship networks and loans from informal sources like local moneylenders to smooth consumption. While large landowners rely on gifts from kinship networks, landless and smallholders increase borrowings from informal sources.

The effect of parental health shocks on living arrangements and employment.

This study investigates the impacts of health shocks among older individuals on the dynamics of their living arrangements in Europe and the United States. Exploiting unpredicted health shocks, we use an event-study difference-in-differences approach to demonstrate that health shocks increase difficulties with activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living, thereby increasing the need for care. Our findings indicate that health shocks raise the probability of nursing home residency and co-residence with adult children by 0.7 and 1.4 percentage points in Europe, and by 2.1 and 1.8 percentage points in the U.S., respectively. Further analyses reveal that more generous long-term care public policies correlate with a higher probability of nursing home residency and a lower probability of co-residing with adult children, highlighting the significant role of public policies in household responses to health shocks. Additionally, we find that health shocks negatively impact adult children's labor supply, particularly in the U.S.

Trading HIV for sheep: Risky sexual behavior and the response of female sex workers to Tabaski in Senegal.

We use a cohort of female sex workers (FSWs) in Senegal to show how large anticipated economic shocks lead to increased risky sexual behavior. Exploiting the exogenous timing of interviews, we study the effect of Tabaski, the most important Islamic festival celebrated in Senegal, in which most households purchase an expensive animal for sacrifice. Condom use, measured robustly via the list experiment, falls by between 27.3 percentage points (pp) (65.5%) and 43.1 pp (22.7%) in the 9 days before Tabaski, or a maximum of 49.5 pp (76%) in the 7 day period preceding Tabaski. The evidence suggests the economic pressures from Tabaski are key to driving the behavior change observed through the price premium for condomless sex. Those most exposed to the economic pressure from Tabaski were unlikely to be using condoms at all in the week before the festival. Our findings show that Tabaski leads to increased risky behaviors for FSWs, a key population at high risk of HIV infection, for at least 1 week every year and has implications for FSWs in all countries celebrating Tabaski or similar festivals. Because of the scale, frequency, and size of the behavioral response to shocks of this type, policy should be carefully designed to protect vulnerable women against anticipated shocks.

Food insecurity, environment, institutional quality, and health outcomes: evidence from South Asia.

BACKGROUND: Food insecurity and environmental degradation pose significant threats to health outcomes in South Asia, necessitating effective policy interventions. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of food insecurity and environmental degradation on health outcome indicators amidst global inflationary shocks and institutional quality arrangements. Additionally, it aims to explore the intricate moderating role of institutional quality on the relationship between food insecurity, endogenous variables, and external shocks. METHOD: In alignment with the study's objectives, a set of panel data spanning from 2000 to 2021 is compiled for South Asia. The study introduces a novel variable representing inflationary shock, crafted through the integration of inflation datapoints and the application of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. Additionally, a distinctive aggregate institutional quality index is formulated, drawing from six key measures of the Worldwide Governance indicators. To scrutinize the effects of food insecurity, environmental degradation, and other explanatory variables, the study employs the two-step system generalized method of moment technique, offering a robust analytical approach to uncover complex relationships and dynamics in the region. RESULTS: The results indicate that the prevalence of undernourishment, inequality in per capita calorie intake, and CO2 emissions significantly reduce life expectancy and increase mortality rates. Additionally, it shows that per capita kilocalorie supply, per capita GDP, per capita health expenditures, and urbanization are statistically significant for increasing life expectancy and decreasing mortality rates. The findings reveal that inflationary shocks severely affect food insecurity and environmental factors, exerting further pressure on contemporary life expectancy and mortality rates. In rebuttal, the institutional quality index is found to have significant effects on increasing and decreasing life expectancy and mortality rates, respectively. Furthermore, the institutional quality index is effective in moderating the nexus between food insecurity, environmental degradation, and health outcomes while also neutralizing the negative impact of inflationary shocks on the subject. CONCLUSION: The results verify triple health constraints such as food insecurity, environmental factors, and economic vulnerability to global shocks, which impose severe effects on life expectancy and mortality rates. Furthermore, poor institutional quality is identified as a hindrance to health outcomes in South Asia. The findings suggest specific policy implications that are explicitly discussed.

Modern physiological approach to inappropriate ICD shocks due to atrial fibrillation with very fast ventricular response. A case report.

BACKGROUND: Fast-conducting atrial fibrillation misinterpreted as ventricular tachycardia is the leading cause for inappropriate shocks in patients with implantable cardiac defibrillators (ICD). These inappropriate shocks are associated with significant morbidity and mortality and cause great discomfort and stress. CASE PRESENTATION: We report the case of a patient with ischemic cardiomyopathy, permanent atrial fibrillation, and a single-chamber DF-1 ICD implanted for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death, who presented for multiple inappropriate internal shocks due to very fast-conducting atrial fibrillation, which was mislabeled as ventricular fibrillation by the ICD. Since the patient was under maximal atrioventricular nodal blocking medical therapy (beta-blockers and digitalis) and we didn`t find any reversible causes for the heart rate acceleration, we opted for rate control with atrioventricular node ablation. To counteract the risk of pacing-induced cardiomyopathy in this patient who would become totally pacemaker-dependent, we successfully performed left bundle branch area pacing. Because the patient`s ICD had a DF-1 connection and the battery had a long life remaining, we connected the physiological pacing lead to the IS-1 sense-pace port of the ICD. The 6-month follow-up showed an improvement in left ventricular function with no more inappropriate shocks. CONCLUSIONS: Left bundle branch area pacing and atrioventricular node ablation in patients with an implantable single-chamber DF-1 defibrillator and fast-conducting permanent atrial fibrillation is a cost-efficient and very effective method to prevent and treat inappropriate shocks, avoiding the use of an additional dual-chamber or CRT-D device.

Toward hospital resilience: a qualitative study on the identification of hospital shocks during disruption era in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Hospital resilience has been well recognized among healthcare managers and providers as disruption of hospital services that threatens their business environment. However, the shocks identified in the recent hospital resilience concept are mainly related to disaster situations. This study aims to identify potential shocks that hospitals face during disruptions in Indonesia. METHOD: This qualitative study was conducted in Makassar, Indonesia in August-November 2022. Data was collected through semi-structured interviews with hospital managers and resilience experts using a semi-structured interview guide. 20 key informants were interviewed and data were analyzed by thematic analysis. RESULTS: The study identified seven shocks to hospitals during the disruption era: policy, politics, economics, hospital management shifting paradigms, market and consumer behavior changes, disasters, and conflicts. It also identified barriers to making hospitals resilient, such as inappropriate organizational culture, weak cooperation across sectors, the traditional approach of hospital management, inadequate managerial and leadership skills, human resources inadequacies, a lack of business mindset and resistance to change. CONCLUSION: This study provides a comprehensive understanding of hospital shocks during disruptions. This may serve as a guide to redesigning the instruments and capabilities needed for a resilient hospital.

Phase space transport in the interaction between shocks and plasma turbulence.

The interaction of collisionless shocks with fully developed plasma turbulence is numerically investigated. Hybrid kinetic simulations, where a turbulent jet is slammed against an oblique shock, are employed to address the role of upstream turbulence on plasma transport. A technique, using coarse graining of the Vlasov equation, is proposed, showing that the particle transport strongly depends on upstream turbulence properties, such as strength and coherency. These results might be relevant for the understanding of acceleration and heating processes in space plasmas.

Passive coupling of membrane tension and cell volume during active response of cells to osmosis.

During osmotic changes of their environment, cells actively regulate their volume and plasma membrane tension that can passively change through osmosis. How tension and volume are coupled during osmotic adaptation remains unknown, as their quantitative characterization is lacking. Here, we performed dynamic membrane tension and cell volume measurements during osmotic shocks. During the first few seconds following the shock, cell volume varied to equilibrate osmotic pressures inside and outside the cell, and membrane tension dynamically followed these changes. A theoretical model based on the passive, reversible unfolding of the membrane as it detaches from the actin cortex during volume increase quantitatively describes our data. After the initial response, tension and volume recovered from hypoosmotic shocks but not from hyperosmotic shocks. Using a fluorescent membrane tension probe (fluorescent lipid tension reporter [Flipper-TR]), we investigated the coupling between tension and volume during these asymmetric recoveries. Caveolae depletion and pharmacological inhibition of ion transporters and channels, mTORCs, and the cytoskeleton all affected tension and volume responses. Treatments targeting mTORC2 and specific downstream effectors caused identical changes to both tension and volume responses, their coupling remaining the same. This supports that the coupling of tension and volume responses to osmotic shocks is primarily regulated by mTORC2.

Heat hardening improves thermal tolerance in abalone, without the trade-offs associated with chronic heat exposure.

Marine animals are challenged by chronically raised temperatures alongside an increased frequency of discrete, severe warming events. Exposure to repeated heat shocks could result in heat hardening, where sub-lethal exposure to thermal stress temporarily enhances thermotolerance, and may be an important mechanism by which marine species will cope with future thermal challenges. However, we have relatively little understanding of the effects of heat hardening in comparison to chronic exposure to elevated temperatures. Therefore, we compared the effects of heat hardening from repeated exposure to acute heat shocks and chronic exposure to elevated temperatures on thermal tolerance in the European abalone, Haliotis tuberculata. Adult abalones were exposed to either control temperature (15 °C), chronic warming (20 °C) or a regime of two events of repeated acute heat shock cycles (23-25 °C) during six months, and their thermal tolerance and performance, based upon cardiac activity, compared using a dynamic ramping assay. The cost associated with each treatment was also estimated via measurements of condition index (CI). Abalone exposed to both temperature treatments had higher upper thermal limits than the control, but heat-hardened individuals had significantly higher CI values, indicating an enhancement in condition status. Differences in the shape of the thermal performance curve suggest different mechanisms may be at play under different temperature exposure treatments. We conclude that heat hardening can boost thermal tolerance in this species, without performance trade-offs associated with chronic warming.

Environmentally clean and dirty energy equities during extraordinary global conditions.

I examine which extraordinary international events coincide with pronounced changes in the equity markets for some of the world's largest publicly traded suppliers on opposite sides of the global energy mix - oil and environmentally clean energy companies. First, I adapt an intuitively appealing non-parametric filter to empirically timestamp unexpected and prominent increases and decreases in a wide range of global indicators relevant to the international energy market. Then, I use such extraordinary conditions to characterise the performance of oil and environmentally clean energy equities, and their relationships. My findings suggest that jumps in the global stock market, international crude oil market shocks, and the US dollar real effective exchange rate, are the indicators that define the financial landscape during which considerable gains, losses, and instability across both types of energy markets materialise. In contrast, major elevated uncertainties related to geo-political risk and climate policy reflect relative stability in the equities of both oil and environmentally clean energy companies. Although these results imply that both energy assets are potentially lucrative hedging strategies for investors to exploit during heightened geo-political and climate policy uncertainties, clean energy equities offer market participants the option to combine profit maximising and sustainability objectives while minimising global energy security risks.

The potential synergy between air pollution control and employment growth.

Public service sectors play crucial roles in maintaining societal functioning through the provision of essential services. However, amidst the backdrop of air pollution, their developmental trajectories may veer off course from their intended goals. Quantifying the impact of air pollution on public service sectors, particularly from an employment perspective, offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to foster the sustainable growth of these sectors and expand the analysis framework on air pollution externalities. Drawing on monthly data spanning from January 2015 to December 2019 across 269 prefecture cities, this paper therefore explores the impact of air pollution on public service sector employment using a cross-lagged panel model with fixed effects. I find that air pollution negatively affects the employment scales in public service sectors. This negative employment shock is also unevenly distributed across areas and sub-sectors and intensifies over time. Cities belong to key areas for air pollution prevention and control, small and medium-sized cities, and secondary-industry dominated cities, suffer disproportionately negative employment shocks in their public service sectors. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers to implement targeted measures supporting the continued growth of public service sectors and deepen understanding of the economic ramifications of air pollution.

How resilient are farmers in Africa to climate shocks? A case study of Nigerian farmers.

Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa remains highly vulnerable to climate related shocks, since most production relies on rainfall. It is important to accurately measure the resilience of farmers and farming communities to weather variabilities, for both government policy and farmer management responses. This paper develops a Resilience Index Framework, which is further used to assess the resilience of farmers to climate shocks in Nigeria. We conceptualized our Resilience Index (RI) in this study to be a composite function of 60 indicators encompassing four resilience domains namely, Economic & Financial Resilience (ER); Technical-know-how Resilience (TR); Social Resilience (SR); and Physical Resilience (PR). A three-stage standardization approach to construct the resilience index is taken in this study. In the first stage, each indicator is standardized. In the second stage, the resilience domain is computed by averaging the corresponding standardized indicators. In the final stage, the composite RI is computed by estimating the weighted average of all the resilience domains. The study uses the baseline survey data collected between 2021 and 2022 from a total of 5954 farmers in the rainforest, derived and guinea savannah agroecological zones of Nigeria. The result of the study shows that the majority (96.5%) of the farmers are less resilient to climate shocks, with only 0.9% economically & financially resilient, 1.4% socially resilient, 31.4% technically resilient, and 18.5% physically resilient. Finally, some recommend steps to be taken by the government and relevant stakeholders to improve the resilience of farmers through provision of good infrastructural facilities and subsidized improved resistant seed varieties are proposed.

Increasing nurses' occupational well-being: the role of career shocks, job crafting and supervisor autonomy support.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to explore the influence of career shocks on nurses' occupational well-being through job crafting and the moderating role of supervisor autonomy support. METHOD: The present study used a cross-sectional design. And the study included 714 frontline nurses in China, and we used structural equation modelling (SEM) to test our hypotheses. RESULTS: Job crafting mediated both the relationship between positive career shocks and occupational well-being and the relationship between negative career shocks and occupational well-being. Supervisor autonomy support moderated the indirect relationships. CONCLUSIONS: Positive and negative career shocks could increase and impair nurses' occupational well-being through job crafting, respectively. We contribute to helping nurses make sense of career shocks and preparing for career shocks, and hospital administrators and nurses' direct supervisors can help nurse better cope with career shocks in attending job crafting activities and providing more autonomy supports.

Dependent Competing Failure Processes in Reliability Systems.

This paper deals with a reliability system hit by three types of shocks ranked as harmless, critical, or extreme, depending on their magnitudes, being below H1, between H1 and H2, and above H2, respectively. The system's failure is caused by a single extreme shock or by a total of N critical shocks. In addition, the system fails under occurrences of M pairs of shocks with lags less than some δ (δ-shocks) in any order. Thus, the system fails when one of the three named cumulative damages occurs first. Thus, it fails due to the competition of the three associated shock processes. We obtain a closed-form joint distribution of the time-to-failure, shock count upon failure, δ-shock count, and cumulative damage to the system on failure, to name a few. In particular, the reliability function directly follows from the marginal distribution of the failure time. In a modified system, we restrict δ-shocks to those with small lags between consecutive harmful shocks. We treat the system as a generalized random walk process and use an embellished variant of discrete operational calculus developed in our earlier work. We demonstrate analytical tractability of our formulas which are also validated, through Monte Carlo simulation.