RESUMO
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common and increases the risk for stroke and heart failure (HF). The early identification of patients at risk may prevent the development of AF and improve prognosis. This study, therefore, aimed to test the effect of the association between P-wave and PR-interval on the ECG and incident AF.The PIVUS (Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors) study (1016 individuals all aged 70 years; 50% women) was used to identify whether the ECG variables P-wave duration (Pdur) and PR-duration in lead V1 were related to new-onset AF. Exclusion criteria were prevalent AF, QRS-duration ≥ 130 milliseconds (msec), atrial tachyarrhythmias and implanted pacemaker/defibrillator. Cox proportional-hazards models were used for analyses. Adjustments were made for gender, RR-interval, beta-blocking agents, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, and smoking.Of 877 subjects at risk, 189 individuals developed AF during a 15-year follow-up. There was a U-shaped relationship between the Pdur and incident AF (P = 0.017) following multiple adjustment. Values below 60 msec were significantly associated with incident AF, with a hazard ratio of 1.55 (95% confidence interval 1.15-2.09) for a Pdur ≤ 42 msec. There was no significant relationship between incident AF and the PR-interval.A short Pdur derived from the ECG in V1 may be a useful marker for new-onset AF, enabling the early identification of at-risk patients.