Trophic niches of macrobenthos: Latitudinal variation indicates climate change impact on ecosystem functioning.

Benthic food-web structure and organic matter (OM) utilization are important for marine ecosystem functioning. In response to environmental changes related to the ongoing climate change, however, many benthic species are shifting their ranges to colder regions, which may lead to altered community composition, but it remains largely unknown how it will affect ecosystem functioning. Here, stable isotope analysis was used to study benthic OM utilization and food-web structure and to assess whether their spatial patterns reflect today's community differentiation among biogeographic regions and depth zones. Benthic fauna and OM mixtures were collected from two depth zones (100-150 m vs. 200-250 m) within a temperate, two sub-Arctic, and an Arctic fjord along a latitudinal gradient (59-78° N) that was used as a space-for-time substitution to assess the impact of climate change. Our results showed that Arctic and temperate communities are functionally different. Arctic communities were characterized by a strong resource partitioning among different feeding types, irrespective of depth zone. In contrast, all feeding types in temperate communities seemed to rely on sedimentary OM. The sub-Arctic presented a transition zone. In the sub-Arctic, shallower communities resembled Arctic communities, suggesting a functional transition between temperate and sub-Arctic regions. Deeper sub-Arctic communities resembled temperate communities, suggesting a functional transition between the sub-Arctic and Arctic regions. This implies that the regions north of the current transitions (deep Arctic and shallow sub-Arctic) are most likely to experience functional changes related to an altered OM utilization in benthic food webs in response to climate change.

Real-time dynamics of aculeate hymenopteran reed gall inquilines in oligotrophic reed beds of anthropogenic and natural origin.

This is the first study providing long-term data on the dynamics of bees and wasps and their parasitoids for the evidence-based management of reed beds. Ten years ago, we identified Lipara (Chloropidae) - induced galls on common reed (Phragmites australis, Poaceae) as a critically important resource for specialized bees and wasps (Hymenoptera: Aculeata). We found that they were surprisingly common in relatively newly formed anthropogenic habitats, which elicited questions about the dynamics of bees and wasps and their parasitoids in newly formed reed beds of anthropogenic origin. Therefore, in the winter and spring of 2022/23, we sampled reed galls from the same set of reed beds of anthropogenic and natural origin as those in 2012/13. At 10 sites, the number of sampled galls was similar in both time periods (80-122% of the value from 2012/13); 12 sites experienced a moderate decline (30-79% of the value from 2012/13), and the number of galls at six sampling sites was only 3-23% of their abundance in 2012/13. Spontaneous development was associated with increasing populations. After 10 years of spontaneous development, the populations of bees and wasps (including their parasitoids) bound to Lipara-induced reed galls increased in abundance and species richness or remained at their previous levels, which was dependent on the sampling site. The only identified threat consisted of reclamation efforts. The effects of habitat age were limited, and the assemblages in habitats of near-natural and anthropogenic origin largely overlapped. However, several species were consistently present at lower abundances in the anthropogenic habitats and vice versa. In conclusion, we provided evidence-based support for the establishment of oligotrophic reed beds of anthropogenic origin as management tools providing sustainable habitats for specialized reed gall-associated aculeate hymenopteran inquilines, including the threatened species.

Urban environments provide new perspectives for forecasting vegetation phenology responses under climate warming.

Given that already-observed temperature increase within cities far exceeds the projected global temperature rise by the end of the century, urban environments often offer a unique opportunity for studying ecosystem response to future warming. However, the validity of thermal gradients in space serving as a substitute for those in time is rarely tested. Here, we investigated vegetation phenology dynamics in China's 343 cities and empirically test whether phenological responses to spatial temperature rise in urban settings can substitute for those to temporal temperature rise in their natural counterparts based on satellite-derived vegetation phenology and land surface temperature from 2003 to 2018. We found prevalent advancing spring phenology with "high confidence" and delaying autumn phenology with "medium confidence" under the context of widespread urban warming. Furthermore, we showed that space cannot substitute for time in predicting phenological shifts under climate warming at the national scale and for most cities. The thresholds of ~11°C mean annual temperature and ~600 mm annual precipitation differentiated the magnitude of phenological sensitivity to temperature across space and through time. Below those thresholds, there existed stronger advanced spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology across the spatial urbanization gradients than through time, and vice versa. Despite the complex and diverse relationships between phenological sensitivities across space and through time, we found that the directions of the temperature changes across spatial gradients were converged (i.e., mostly increased), but divergent through temporal gradients (i.e., increased or decreased without a predominant direction). Similarly, vegetation phenology changes more uniformly over space than through time. These results suggested that the urban environments provide a real-world condition to understand vegetation phenology response under future warming.

Space-for-time substitution leads to carbon emission overestimation in eutrophic lakes.

Lacustrine eutrophication is generally considered as an important contributor of carbon emissions to the atmosphere; however, there is still a huge challenge in accuracy estimating carbon emissions from lakes. To test the effect of widely used space-for-time substitution on lake carbon emissions, this study monitored different processes of carbon emissions, including the carbon production potential, dissolved carbon concentrations, and carbon release fluxes in eight lakes along the trophic gradients on a spatial scale and the typical eutrophic Lake Taihu for one year on a temporal scale. Eutrophication promoted carbon production potential, dissolved carbon concentrations, and carbon release fluxes, especially for CH4. Trophic lake index (TLI) showed positive correlations with the CH4 production potential, dissolved CH4 concentrations, and CH4 release fluxes, and also positive correlations with the CO2 production potential, dissolved CO2 concentrations, and CO2 release fluxes. The space-for-time substitution led to an overestimation for the influence of eutrophication on carbon emissions, especially the further intensification of lake eutrophication. On the spatial scale, the average CH4 production potential, dissolved CH4 concentrations and CH4 release fluxes in eutrophic lakes were 268.6, 0.96 µmol/L, and 587.6 µmol m-2·h-1, respectively, while they were 215.8, 0.79 µmol/L, and 548.6 µmol m-2·h-1 on the temporal scale. Obviously, CH4 and CO2 emissions on the spatial scale were significantly higher than those on the temporal scale in eutrophic lakes. The primary influencing factors were the seasonal changes in the physicochemical environments of lake water, including dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature. The CH4 and CO2 release fluxes showed negative correlations with DO, while temperature displayed positive correlations, respectively. These results suggest that the effects of DO and temperature on lake carbon emissions should be considered, which may be ignored during the accurate assessment of lake carbon budget via space-for-time substitution in eutrophic lakes.

Applying space-for-time substitution to infer the growth response to climate may lead to overestimation of tree maladaptation: Evidence from the North American White Spruce Network.

Under climate change circumstances, increasing studies have reported the temporal instability of tree growth responses to climate, which poses a major challenge to linearly extrapolating past climate and future growth dynamics using tree-ring data. Space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is a potential solution to this problem that is widely used in the dendrochronology field to project past or future temporal growth response trajectories from contemporary spatial patterns. However, the projected accuracy of the SFTS in the climate effects on tree growth remains uncertain. Here, we empirically test the SFTS method by comparing the effect of spatial and temporal climate variations on climate responses of white spruce (Picea glauca), which has a transcontinental range in North America. We first applied a response surface regression model to capture the variations in growth responses along the spatial climate gradients. The results showed that the relationships between growth and June temperature varied along spatial climate gradients in a predictable way. And their relationships varied mainly along with local temperate condition. Then, the projected correlation coefficients between growth and climate using SFTS were compared against the observed. We found that the growth response changes caused by spatial versus temporal climate variations showed opposite trends. Moreover, the projected correlation coefficients using the SFTS were significantly lower than the observed. This finding suggests that applying the SFTS to project the growth response of white spruce might lead to an overestimation of the degree of tree maladaptation in future climate scenarios. And the overestimation is likely to get weaker from Alaska and Yukon Territory in the west to Quebec in the east. Although this is only a case study of the SFTS method for projecting tree growth response, our findings suggest that direct application of the SFTS method may not be applicable to all regions and all tree species.

Decomposing the spatial and temporal effects of climate on bird populations in northern European mountains.

The relationships between species abundance or occurrence versus spatial variation in climate are commonly used in species distribution models to forecast future distributions. Under "space-for-time substitution", the effects of climate variation on species are assumed to be equivalent in both space and time. Two unresolved issues of space-for-time substitution are the time period for species' responses and also the relative contributions of rapid- versus slow reactions in shaping spatial and temporal responses to climate change. To test the assumption of equivalence, we used a new approach of climate decomposition to separate variation in temperature and precipitation in Fennoscandia into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components over a 23-year period (1996-2018). We compiled information on land cover, topography, and six components of climate for 1756 fixed route surveys, and we modeled annual counts of 39 bird species breeding in the mountains of Fennoscandia. Local abundance of breeding birds was associated with the spatial components of climate as expected, but the temporal and spatiotemporal climatic variation from the current and previous breeding seasons were also important. The directions of the effects of the three climate components differed within and among species, suggesting that species can respond both rapidly and slowly to climate variation and that the responses represent different ecological processes. Thus, the assumption of equivalent species' response to spatial and temporal variation in climate was seldom met in our study system. Consequently, for the majority of our species, space-for-time substitution may only be applicable once the slow species' responses to a changing climate have occurred, whereas forecasts for the near future need to accommodate the temporal components of climate variation. However, appropriate forecast horizons for space-for-time substitution are rarely considered and may be difficult to reliably identify. Accurately predicting change is challenging because multiple ecological processes affect species distributions at different temporal scales.

Thermal plasticity and evolution shape predator-prey interactions differently in clear and turbid water bodies.

Warming and eutrophication negatively affect freshwater ecosystems by modifying trophic interactions and increasing water turbidity. We need to consider their joint effects on predator-prey interactions and how these depend on the thermal evolution of both predator and prey. We quantified how 4°C warming and algae-induced turbidity (that integrates turbidity per se and increased food for zooplankton prey) affect functional response parameters and prey population parameters in a common-garden experiment. We did so for all combinations of high- and low-latitude predator (damselfly larvae) and prey (water fleas) populations to assess the potential impact of thermal evolution of predators and/or prey at a high latitude under warming using a space-for-time substitution. We then modelled effects on the system stability (i.e. tendency to oscillate) under different warming, turbidity and evolutionary scenarios. Warming and turbidity had little effect on the functional response parameters of high-latitude predators. In contrast, warming and turbidity reduced the handling times of low-latitude predators. Moreover, warming increased the search rates of low-latitude predators in clear water but instead decreased these in turbid water. Warming increased stability (i.e. prevented oscillations) in turbid water (except for the 'high-latitude predator and high-latitude prey' system), mainly by decreasing the prey's carrying capacity and partly also by decreasing search rates, while it did not affect stability in clear water. Algae-induced turbidity generally decreased stability, mainly by increasing the prey's carrying capacity and partly also by increasing search rates. This resembles findings that nutrient enrichment can reduce the stability of trophic systems. The expected stability of the high-latitude trophic system under warming was dependent on the turbidity level: our results suggest that thermal plasticity tends to destabilize the high-latitude trophic system under warming in clear water but not in turbid water, and that thermal evolution of the predator will stabilize the high-latitude system under warming in turbid water but less so in clear water. The extent to which thermal plasticity and evolution shape trophic system stability under warming may strongly differ between clear and turbid water bodies, with their contributions having a more stabilizing role in turbid water.

Unravelling insect declines: can space replace time?

Temporal trends in insect numbers vary across studies and habitats, but drivers are poorly understood. Suitable long-term data are scant and biased, and interpretations of trends remain controversial. By contrast, there is substantial quantitative evidence for drivers of spatial variation. From observational and experimental studies, we have gained a profound understanding of where insect abundance and diversity is higher-and identified underlying environmental conditions, resource change and disturbances. We thus propose an increased consideration of spatial evidence in studying the causes of insect decline. This is because for most time series available today, the number of sites and thus statistical power strongly exceed the number of years studied. Comparisons across sites allow quantifying insect population risks, impacts of land use, habitat destruction, restoration or management, and stressors such as chemical and light pollution, pesticides, mowing or harvesting, climatic extremes or biological invasions. Notably, drivers may not have to change in intensity to have long-term effects on populations, e.g. annually repeated disturbances or mortality risks such as those arising from agricultural practices. Space-for-time substitution has been controversially debated. However, evidence from well-replicated spatial data can inform on urgent actions required to halt or reverse declines-to be implemented in space.

Dynamic plant-soil microbe interactions: the neglected effect of soil conditioning time.

Plant-soil feedback (PSF) may change in strength over the life of plant individuals as plants continue to modify the soil microbial community. However, the temporal variation in PSF is rarely quantified and its impacts on plant communities remain unknown. Using a chronosequence reconstructed from annual aerial photographs of a coastal dune ecosystem, we characterized > 20-yr changes in soil microbial communities associated with individuals of the four dominant perennial species, one legume and three nonlegume. We also quantified the effects of soil biota on conspecific and heterospecific seedling performance in a glasshouse experiment that preserved soil properties of these individual plants. Additionally, we used a general individual-based model to explore the potential consequences of temporally varying PSF on plant community assembly. In all plant species, microbial communities changed with plant age. However, responses of plants to the turnover in microbial composition depended on the identity of the seedling species: only the soil biota effect experienced by the nonlegume species became increasingly negative with longer soil conditioning. Model simulation suggested that temporal changes in PSF could affect the transient dynamics of plant community assembly. These results suggest that temporal variation in PSF over the life of individual plants should be considered to understand how PSF structures plant communities.

Annual precipitation explains variability in dryland vegetation greenness globally but not locally.

Dryland vegetation productivity is strongly modulated by water availability. As precipitation patterns and variability are altered by climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand vegetation responses to precipitation variability in these ecologically fragile regions. Here we present a global analysis of dryland sensitivity to annual precipitation variations using long-term records of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We show that while precipitation explains 66% of spatial gradients in NDVI across dryland regions, precipitation only accounts for <26% of temporal NDVI variability over most (>75%) dryland regions. We observed this weaker temporal relative to spatial relationship between NDVI and precipitation across all global drylands. We confirmed this result using three alternative water availability metrics that account for water loss to evaporation, and growing season and precipitation timing. This suggests that predicting vegetation responses to future rainfall using space-for-time substitution will strongly overestimate precipitation control on interannual variability in aboveground growth. We explore multiple mechanisms to explain the discrepancy between spatial and temporal responses and find contributions from multiple factors including local-scale vegetation characteristics, climate and soil properties. Earth system models (ESMs) from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project overestimate the observed vegetation sensitivity to precipitation variability up to threefold, particularly during dry years. Given projections of increasing meteorological drought, ESMs are likely to overestimate the impacts of future drought on dryland vegetation with observations suggesting that dryland vegetation is more resistant to annual precipitation variations than ESMs project.

Old-growth forests show low canopy resilience to droughts at the southern edge of the taiga.

Forest mortality and resilience driven by drought disturbances have attracted tons of attention. However, the acquisition of continuous spatial-temporal data is generally enslaved to the conventional field investigations. In this study, the resilience of semiarid forest was characterized with canopy dynamics from remote sensing observations, combining the variations in canopy greenness and water content. We integrated dense normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference infrared index (NDII) time series from Landsat datasets, intending to assess the canopy resilience in 24 conifer patches along a climatic aridity gradient at the southern edge of the taiga in northern Mongolia and southern Siberia of Russia. The results exhibited four patterns of coordinated NDVI-NDII variation trends, indicating that the canopy water content of coniferous forests may decrease at first during a drought period, and sustained water loss may, in turn, induce an accompanying reduction in canopy greenness. Meanwhile, the patches with canopy recovery growth after initial declines were considered to have resilience to climate change. We further observed the combined effects of aridity degree and tree age on canopy resilience, and all seven patches with no resilience corresponded to the old-tree group (the oldest trees reached or exceeded the age of 90). The observations indicated that the old-growth forests in semiarid regions were less likely to show canopy resilience, which corresponded to a higher risk of sustained decline.

Physiological adaptation to cities as a proxy to forecast global-scale responses to climate change.

Cities are emerging as a new venue to overcome the challenges of obtaining data on compensatory responses to climatic warming through phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary change. In this Review, we highlight how cities can be used to explore physiological trait responses to experimental warming, and also how cities can be used as human-made space-for-time substitutions. We assessed the current literature and found evidence for significant plasticity and evolution in thermal tolerance trait responses to urban heat islands. For those studies that reported both plastic and evolved components of thermal tolerance, we found evidence that both mechanisms contributed to phenotypic shifts in thermal tolerance, rather than plastic responses precluding or limiting evolved responses. Interestingly though, for a broader range of studies, we found that the magnitude of evolved shifts in thermal tolerance was not significantly different from the magnitude of shift in those studies that only reported phenotypic results, which could be a product of evolution, plasticity, or both. Regardless, the magnitude of shifts in urban thermal tolerance phenotypes was comparable to more traditional space-for-time substitutions across latitudinal and altitudinal clines in environmental temperature. We conclude by considering how urban-derived estimates of plasticity and evolution of thermal tolerance traits can be used to improve forecasting methods, including macrophysiological models and species distribution modelling approaches. Finally, we consider areas for further exploration including sub-lethal performance traits and thermal performance curves, assessing the adaptive nature of trait shifts, and taking full advantage of the environmental thermal variation that cities generate.

Intraspecific responses to climate reveal nonintuitive warming impacts on a widespread thermophilic conifer.

Many ecologically important forest trees from dry areas have been insufficiently investigated for their ability to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change, which hampers the implementation of mitigation policies. We analyzed 14 common-garden experiments across the Mediterranean which studied the widespread thermophilic conifer Pinus halepensis and involved 157 populations categorized into five ecotypes. Ecotype-specific tree height responses to climate were applied to projected climate change (2071-2100 ad), to project potential growth patterns both locally and across the species' range. We found contrasting ecotypic sensitivities to annual precipitation but comparatively uniform responses to mean temperature, while evidence of local adaptation for tree height was limited to mesic ecotypes. We projected intriguing patterns of response range-wide, implying either height inhibition or stimulation of up to 75%, and deduced that the ecotype currently experiencing more favorable (wetter) conditions will show the largest inhibition. Extensive height reductions can be expected for coastal areas of France, Greece, Spain and northern Africa. Our findings underline the fact that intraspecific variations in sensitivity to precipitation must be considered when projecting tree height responses of dry forests to future climate. The ecotype-specific projected performances call for management activities to ensure forest resilience in the Mediterranean through, for example, tailored deployment strategies.

Genetic compensation rather than genetic assimilation drives the evolution of plasticity in response to mild warming across latitudes in a damselfly.

Global warming is causing plastic and evolutionary changes in the phenotypes of ectotherms. Yet, we have limited knowledge on how the interplay between plasticity and evolution shapes thermal responses and underlying gene expression patterns. We assessed thermal reaction norm patterns across the transcriptome and identified associated molecular pathways in northern and southern populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. Larvae were reared in a common garden experiment at the mean summer water temperatures experienced at the northern (20°C) and southern (24°C) latitudes. This allowed a space-for-time substitution where the current gene expression levels at 24°C in southern larvae are a proxy for the expected responses of northern larvae under gradual thermal evolution to the predicted 4°C warming. Most differentially expressed genes showed fixed differences across temperatures between latitudes, suggesting that thermal genetic adaptation will mainly evolve through changes in constitutive gene expression. Northern populations also frequently showed plastic responses in gene expression to mild warming, while southern populations were much less responsive to temperature. Thermal responsive genes in northern populations showed to a large extent a pattern of genetic compensation, namely gene expression that was induced at 24°C in northern populations remained at a lower constant level in southern populations, and were associated with metabolic and translation pathways. There was instead little evidence for genetic assimilation of an initial plastic response to mild warming. Our data therefore suggest that genetic compensation rather than genetic assimilation may drive the evolution of plasticity in response to mild warming in this damselfly species.

Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal resolution sampling regimes.

Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space-for-time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability in these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well-constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space-for-time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10- to 40-fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35-fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability in the flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well-constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.

Temperature variation makes an ectotherm more sensitive to global warming unless thermal evolution occurs.

To assess long-term impacts of global warming on species, there is growing interest in latitudinal intraspecific patterns in thermal adaptation. Yet, while both mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations (DTFs) are expected to increase under global warming, latitudinal differences in the effects of DTFs have not been documented. We tested whether low-latitude populations of an ectotherm deal better with greater DTF than high-latitude populations, especially at a high mean temperature close to the optimal temperature for growth where DTF causes exposure to extreme high temperatures. We evaluated the impact of DTFs when assessing the effect of gradual thermal evolution at the high latitude with a space-for-time substitution. We compared effects of both mean temperatures (20 and 24°C) and DTFs (constant = 0°C, low = 5°C and high = 10°C) on growth rates between low-latitude and high-latitude populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans in a common-garden experiment. DTFs, if anything, reduced growth and were generally stressful as indicated by reductions in body condition, antioxidant defence and metabolic rate, and increases in oxidative damage. Most negative effects of DTFs were only present at a mean of 24°C when too high temperatures were reached during a daily cycle. Notably, while 4°C warming was beneficial in terms of growth rate at both latitudes at a constant temperature regime, this changed in a negative effect at high DTF. Moreover, this modulating effect of the mean temperature by DTF differed between latitudes indicating local thermal adaptation. While 4°C warming at low DTF still caused faster growth in low-latitude larvae, it already slowed growth in high-latitude larvae. This supports the emerging insight that warming would increase growth in high-latitude larvae in the absence of DTF, yet would decrease growth in the more realistic scenarios with DTF. In contrast, a space-for-time substitution approach suggested that under gradual thermal evolution, the evolved high-latitude larvae would no longer suffer a growth reduction in the presence of DTF. Our study provided important proof-of-principle that jointly integrating gradual thermal evolution and the expected increase in DTF generates opposing predictions of effects of global warming on this ectotherm.

Latitude-associated evolution and drivers of thermal response curves in body stoichiometry.

Trait-based studies are needed to understand the plastic and genetic responses of organisms to warming. A neglected organismal trait is elemental composition, despite its potential to cascade into effects on the ecosystem level. Warming is predicted to shape elemental composition through shifts in storage molecules associated with responses in growth, body size and metabolic rate. Our goals were to quantify thermal response patterns in body composition and to obtain insights into their underlying drivers and their evolution across latitudes. We reconstructed the thermal response curves (TRCs) for body elemental composition [C (carbon), N (nitrogen) and the C:N ratio] of damselfly larvae from high- and low-latitude populations. Additionally, we quantified the TRCs for survival, growth and development rates and body size to assess local thermal adaptation, as well as the TRCs for metabolic rate and key macromolecules (proteins, fat, sugars and cuticular melanin and chitin) as these may underlie the elemental TRCs. All larvae died at 36°C. Up to 32°C, low-latitude larvae increased growth and development rates and did not suffer increased mortality. Instead, growth and development rates of high-latitude larvae were lower and levelled off at 24°C, and mortality increased at 32°C. This latitude-associated thermal adaptation pattern matched the 'hotter-is-better' hypothesis. With increasing temperatures, low-latitude larvae decreased C:N, while high-latitude larvae increased C:N. These patterns were driven by associated changes in N contents, while C contents did not respond to temperature. Consistent with the temperature-size rule and the thermal melanism hypothesis, body size and melanin levels decreased with warming. While all traits and associated macromolecules (except for metabolic rate that showed thermal compensation) assumed to underlie thermal responses in elemental composition showed thermal plasticity, these were largely independent and none could explain the stoichiometric TRCs. Our results highlight that thermal responses in elemental composition cannot be explained by traditionally assumed drivers, asking for a broader perspective including the thermal dependence of elemental fluxes. Another key implication is that thermal evolution can reverse the plastic stoichiometric thermal responses and hence reverse how warming may shape food web dynamics through changes in body composition at different latitudes.

Time-lagged effects of weather on plant demography: drought and Astragalus scaphoides.

Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(λt). Log(λt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time did not recover the weather signal, probably because the weather variables varied little between sites. We detected the SPEI signal when the analysis included data from two sites monitored over 20 yr (2 × 20 observations), but not when analyzing data from four sites monitored over 10 yr (4 × 10 observations).

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns.

Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.

Archaeological evidence of validity of fish populations on unexploited reefs as proxy targets for modern populations.

Reef-fish management and conservation is hindered by a lack of information on fish populations prior to large-scale contemporary human impacts. As a result, relatively pristine sites are often used as conservation baselines for populations near sites affected by humans. This space-for-time approach can only be validated by sampling assemblages through time. We used archaeological remains to evaluate whether the remote, uninhabited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) might provide a reasonable proxy for a lightly exploited baseline in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). We used molecular and morphological techniques to describe the taxonomic and size composition of the scarine parrotfish catches present in 2 archaeological assemblages from the MHI, compared metrics of these catches with modern estimates of reproductive parameters to evaluate whether catches represented by the archaeological material were consistent with sustainable fishing, and evaluated overlap between size structures represented by the archaeological material and modern survey data from the MHI and the NWHI to assess whether a space-for-time substitution is reasonable. The parrotfish catches represented by archaeological remains were consistent with sustainable fishing because they were dominated by large, mature individuals whose average size remained stable from prehistoric (AD approximately 1400-1700) through historic (AD 1700-1960) periods. The ancient catches were unlike populations in the MHI today. Overlap between the size structure of ancient MHI catches and modern survey data from the NWHI or the MHI was an order of magnitude greater for the NWHI comparison, a result that supports the validity of using the NWHI parrotfish data as a proxy for the MHI before accelerated, heavy human impacts in modern times.