Deep learning models map rapid plant species changes from citizen science and remote sensing data.

Anthropogenic habitat destruction and climate change are reshaping the geographic distribution of plants worldwide. However, we are still unable to map species shifts at high spatial, temporal, and taxonomic resolution. Here, we develop a deep learning model trained using remote sensing images from California paired with half a million citizen science observations that can map the distribution of over 2,000 plant species. Our model-Deepbiosphere-not only outperforms many common species distribution modeling approaches (AUC 0.95 vs. 0.88) but can map species at up to a few meters resolution and finely delineate plant communities with high accuracy, including the pristine and clear-cut forests of Redwood National Park. These fine-scale predictions can further be used to map the intensity of habitat fragmentation and sharp ecosystem transitions across human-altered landscapes. In addition, from frequent collections of remote sensing data, Deepbiosphere can detect the rapid effects of severe wildfire on plant community composition across a 2-y time period. These findings demonstrate that integrating public earth observations and citizen science with deep learning can pave the way toward automated systems for monitoring biodiversity change in real-time worldwide.

Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts.

Climate change will likely shift plant and microbial distributions, creating geographic mismatches between plant hosts and essential microbial symbionts (e.g., ectomycorrhizal fungi, EMF). The loss of historical interactions, or the gain of novel associations, can have important consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and plant migration potential, yet few analyses exist that measure where mycorrhizal symbioses could be lost or gained across landscapes. Here, we examine climate change impacts on tree-EMF codistributions at the continent scale. We built species distribution models for 400 EMF species and 50 tree species, integrating fungal sequencing data from North American forest ecosystems with tree species occurrence records and long-term forest inventory data. Our results show the following: 1) tree and EMF climate suitability to shift toward higher latitudes; 2) climate shifts increase the size of shared tree-EMF habitat overall, but 35% of tree-EMF pairs are at risk of declining habitat overlap; 3) climate mismatches between trees and EMF are projected to be greater at northern vs. southern boundaries; and 4) tree migration lag is correlated with lower richness of climatically suitable EMF partners. This work represents a concentrated effort to quantify the spatial extent and location of tree-EMF climate envelope mismatches. Our findings also support a biotic mechanism partially explaining the failure of northward tree species migrations with climate change: reduced diversity of co-occurring and climate-compatible EMF symbionts at higher latitudes. We highlight the conservation implications for identifying areas where tree and EMF responses to climate change may be highly divergent.

Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human-elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia.

Human-wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability-three key drivers of human-elephant conflict-will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions "regional rivalry" SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions "sustainability" SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts.

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

Predicting undetected native vascular plant diversity at a global scale.

Vascular plants are diverse and a major component of terrestrial ecosystems, yet their geographic distributions remain incomplete. Here, I present a global database of vascular plant distributions by integrating species distribution models calibrated to species' dispersal ability and natural habitats to predict native range maps for 201,681 vascular plant species into unsurveyed areas. Using these maps, I uncover unique patterns of native vascular plant diversity, endemism, and phylogenetic diversity revealing hotspots in underdocumented biodiversity-rich regions. These hotspots, based on detailed species-level maps, show a pronounced latitudinal gradient, strongly supporting the theory of increasing diversity toward the equator. I trained random forest models to extrapolate diversity patterns under unbiased global sampling and identify overlaps with modeled estimations but unveiled cryptic hotspots that were not captured by modeled estimations. Only 29% to 36% of extrapolated plant hotspots are inside protected areas, leaving more than 60% outside and vulnerable. However, the unprotected hotspots harbor species with unique attributes that make them good candidates for conservation prioritization.

The Afrotropical breeding grounds of the Palearctic-African migratory painted lady butterflies (Vanessa cardui).

Migratory insects are key players in ecosystem functioning and services, but their spatiotemporal distributions are typically poorly known. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) may be used to predict species seasonal distributions, but the resulting hypotheses should eventually be validated by field data. The painted lady butterfly (Vanessa cardui) performs multigenerational migrations between Europe and Africa and has become a model species for insect movement ecology. While the annual migration cycle of this species is well understood for Europe and northernmost Africa, it is still unknown where most individuals spend the winter. Through ENM, we previously predicted suitable breeding grounds in the subhumid regions near the tropics between November and February. In this work, we assess the suitability of these predictions through i) extensive field surveys and ii) two-year monitoring in six countries: a large-scale monitoring scheme to study butterfly migration in Africa. We document new breeding locations, year-round phenological information, and hostplant use. Field observations were nearly always predicted with high probability by the previous ENM, and monitoring demonstrated the influence of the precipitation seasonality regime on migratory phenology. Using the updated dataset, we built a refined ENM for the Palearctic-African range of V. cardui. We confirm the relevance of the Afrotropical region and document the missing natural history pieces of the longest migratory cycle described in butterflies.

Biodiversity and infrastructure interact to drive tourism to and within Costa Rica.

SignificanceTourism accounts for roughly 10% of global gross domestic product, with nature-based tourism its fastest-growing sector in the past 10 years. Nature-based tourism can theoretically contribute to local and sustainable development by creating attractive livelihoods that support biodiversity conservation, but whether tourists prefer to visit more biodiverse destinations is poorly understood. We examine this question in Costa Rica and find that more biodiverse places tend indeed to attract more tourists, especially where there is infrastructure that makes these places more accessible. Safeguarding terrestrial biodiversity is critical to preserving the substantial economic benefits that countries derive from tourism. Investments in both biodiversity conservation and infrastructure are needed to allow biodiverse countries to rely on tourism for their sustainable development.

Niche differentiation, reproductive interference, and range expansion.

Understanding species distributions and predicting future range shifts requires considering all relevant abiotic factors and biotic interactions. Resource competition has received the most attention, but reproductive interference is another widespread biotic interaction that could influence species ranges. Rubyspot damselflies (Hetaerina spp.) exhibit a biogeographic pattern consistent with the hypothesis that reproductive interference has limited range expansion. Here, we use ecological niche models to evaluate whether this pattern could have instead been caused by niche differentiation. We found evidence for climatic niche differentiation, but the species that encounters the least reproductive interference has one of the narrowest and most peripheral niches. These findings strengthen the case that reproductive interference has limited range expansion and also provide a counterexample to the idea that release from negative species interactions triggers niche expansion. We propose that release from reproductive interference enables species to expand in range while specializing on the habitats most suitable for breeding.

Uncovering Broad Macroecological Patterns by Comparing the Shape of Species' Distributions along Environmental Gradients.

AbstractSpecies' distributions can take many different forms. For example, fat-tailed or skewed distributions are very common in nature, as these can naturally emerge as a result of individual variability and asymmetric environmental tolerances, respectively. Studying the basic shape of distributions can teach us a lot about the ways climatic processes and historical contingencies shape ecological communities. Yet we still lack a general understanding of how their shapes and properties compare to each other along gradients. Here, we use Bayesian nonlinear models to quantify range shape properties in empirical plant distributions. With this approach, we are able to distil the shape of plant distributions and compare them along gradients and across species. Studying the relationship between distribution properties, we revealed the existence of broad macroecological patterns along environmental gradients-such as those expected from Rapoport's rule and the abiotic stress limitation hypothesis. We also find that some aspects of the shape of observed ranges-such as kurtosis and skewness of the distributions-could be intrinsic properties of species or the result of their historical contexts. Overall, our modeling approach and results untangle the general shape of plant distributions and provide a mapping of how this changes along environmental gradients.

The influence of climate change on the future distribution of two Thymus species in Iran: MaxEnt model-based prediction.

Within a few decades, the species habitat was reshaped at an alarming rate followed by climate change, leading to mass extinction, especially for sensitive species. Species distribution models (SDMs), which estimate both present and future species distribution, have been extensively developed to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability. In the West Asia essential oils of T. daenensis and T. kotschyanus include high amounts of thymol and carvacrol and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents and medicinal plants. Therefore, this study aimed to model these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The findings revealed that the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10) was the most significant variable affecting the distribution of T. daenensis. In the case of T. kotschyanus, slope percentage was the primary influencing factor. The MaxEnt modeling also demonstrated excellent performance, as indicated by all the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Moreover, based on the projections, the two mentioned species are expected to undergo negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable achievement for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.

Evaluation of the environmental factors influencing the quality of Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus based on HPLC and the Maxent model.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, global climate change in tandem with increased human activity has resulted in habitat degradation or the migration of rare medicinal plants, potentially impacting the quality of medicinal herbs. Astragalus membranaceus var. mongholicus is a valuable bulk medicinal material in Northwest China. As the demand for this medicinal herb continues to increase in both domestic and international markets, ensuring the sustainable development of high-quality Astragali Radix is important. In this study, the maximum entropy (Maxent) model was applied, thereby incorporating 136 distribution records, along with 39 environmental factors of A. membranaceus var. mongholicus, to assess the quality zonation and potential distribution of this species in China under climate change. RESULTS: The results showed that the elevation, annual mean temperature, precipitation of wettest month, solar radiation in June, and mean temperature of warmest quarter were the critical environmental factors influencing the accumulation of astragaloside IV and Astragalus polysaccharide in A. membranaceus var. mongholicus. Among the twelve main environmental variables, annual mean temperature, elevation, precipitation of the wettest month, and solar radiation in November were the four most important factors influencing the distribution of A. membranaceus var. mongholicus. In addition, ecological niche modelling revealed that highly suitable habitats were mainly located in central and western Gansu, eastern Qinghai, northern Shaanxi, southern Ningxia, central Inner Mongolia, central Shanxi, and northern Hebei. However, the future projections under climate change suggested a contraction of these suitable areas, shifting towards northeastern high-latitude and high-elevation mountains. CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide essential insights for developing adaptive strategies for A. membranaceus var. mongholicus cultivation in response to climate change and can inform future research on this species. By considering the identified environmental factors and the potential impacts of the predicted climate changes, we can visualize the regional distribution of high-quality Radix Astragali and develop conservation strategies to protect and restore its suitable habitats.

Hydrolysis mechanism of the cyclohexaborate anion: Unraveling the intricacies.

B 6 O 7 OH 6 2 - is a highly polymerized borate anion of three six-membered rings. Limited research on the B 6 O 7 OH 6 2 - hydrolysis mechanism under neutral solution conditions exists. Calculations based on density functional theory show that B 6 O 7 OH 6 2 - undergoes five steps of hydrolysis to form H3BO3 and B OH 4 - . At the same time, there are a small number of borate ions with different degrees of polymerization during the hydrolysis process, such as triborate, tetraborate, and pentaborate anions. The structure of the borate anion and the coordination environment of the bridging oxygen atoms control the hydrolysis process. Finally, this work explains that in existing experimental studies, the reason for the low B 6 O 7 OH 6 2 - content in solution environments with low total boron concentrations is that it depolymerizes into other types of borate ions and clarifies the borate species. The conversion relationship provides a basis for identifying the possibility of various borate ions existing in the solution. This work also provides a certain degree of theoretical support for the cause of the "dilution to salt" phenomenon.

Hospital distribution, seasonality, time trends and antifungal susceptibility profiles of all Aspergillus species isolated from clinical samples from 2015 to 2022 in a tertiary care hospital.

BACKGROUND: Aspergillus species cause a variety of serious clinical conditions with increasing trend in antifungal resistance. The present study aimed at evaluating hospital epidemiology and antifungal susceptibility of all isolates recorded in our clinical database since its implementation. METHODS: Data on date of isolation, biological samples, patients' age and sex, clinical settings, and antifungal susceptibility tests for all Aspergillus spp. isolated from 2015 to 2022 were extracted from the clinical database. Score test for trend of odds, non-parametric Mann Kendall trend test and logistic regression analysis were used to analyze prevalence, incidence, and seasonality of Aspergillus spp. isolates. RESULTS: A total of 1126 Aspergillus spp. isolates were evaluated. A. fumigatus was the most prevalent (44.1%) followed by A. niger (22.3%), A. flavus (17.7%) and A. terreus (10.6%). A. niger prevalence increased over time in intensive care units (p-trend = 0.0051). Overall, 16 (1.5%) were not susceptible to one azole compound, and 108 (10.9%) to amphotericin B, with A. niger showing the highest percentage (21.9%). The risk of detecting A. fumigatus was higher in June, (OR = 2.14, 95% CI [1.16; 3.98] p = 0.016) and reduced during September (OR = 0.48, 95% CI [0.27; 0.87] p = 0.015) and October as compared to January (OR = 0.39, 95% CI [0.21; 0.70] p = 0.002. A. niger showed a reduced risk of isolation from all clinical samples in the month of June as compared to January (OR = 0.34, 95% CI [0.14; 0.79] p = 0.012). Seasonal trend for A. flavus showed a higher risk of detection in September (OR = 2.7, 95% CI [1.18; 6.18] p = 0.019), October (OR = 2.32, 95% CI [1.01; 5.35] p = 0.048) and November (OR = 2.42, 95% CI [1.01; 5.79] p = 0.047) as compared to January. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to analyze, at once, data regarding prevalence, time trends, seasonality, species distribution and antifungal susceptibility profiles of all Aspergillus spp. isolates over a 8-year period in a tertiary care center. Surprisingly no increase in azole resistance was observed over time.

Soil properties constrain predicted poleward migration of plants under climate change.

Many plant species are predicted to migrate poleward in response to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to quantify future suitable habitats, but they often neglect soil properties, despite the importance of soil for plant fitness. As soil properties often change along latitudinal gradients, higher-latitude soils might be more or less suitable than average conditions within the current ranges of species, thereby accelerating or slowing potential poleward migration. In this study, we built three SDMs - one with only climate predictors, one with only soil predictors, and one with both - for each of 1870 plant species in Eastern North America, in order to investigate the relative importance of soil properties in determining plant distributions and poleward shifts under climate change. While climate variables were the most important predictors, soil properties also had a substantial influence on continental-scale plant distributions. Under future climate scenarios, models including soil predicted much smaller northward shifts in distributions than climate-only models (c. 40% reduction). Our findings strongly suggest that high-latitude soils are likely to impede ongoing plant migration, and they highlight the necessity of incorporating soil properties into models and predictions for plant distributions and migration under environmental change.

Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover.

Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate-sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel 'phenology-informed' SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology-informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait-based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

Pushing the envelope: do narrowly and widely distributed Eucalyptus species differ in response to climate warming?

Contemporary climate change will push many tree species into conditions that are outside their current climate envelopes. Using the Eucalyptus genus as a model, we addressed whether species with narrower geographical distributions show constrained ability to cope with warming relative to species with wider distributions, and whether this ability differs among species from tropical and temperate climates. We grew seedlings of widely and narrowly distributed Eucalyptus species from temperate and tropical Australia in a glasshouse under two temperature regimes: the summer temperature at seed origin and +3.5°C. We measured physical traits and leaf-level gas exchange to assess warming influences on growth rates, allocation patterns, and physiological acclimation capacity. Warming generally stimulated growth, such that higher relative growth rates early in development placed seedlings on a trajectory of greater mass accumulation. The growth enhancement under warming was larger among widely than narrowly distributed species and among temperate rather than tropical provenances. The differential growth enhancement was primarily attributable to leaf area production and adjustments of specific leaf area. Our results suggest that tree species, including those with climate envelopes that will be exceeded by contemporary climate warming, possess capacity to physiologically acclimate but may have varying ability to adjust morphology.

Contrasting drought tolerance traits of woody plants is associated with mycorrhizal types at the global scale.

It is well-known that the mycorrhizal type of plants correlates with different modes of nutrient cycling and availability. However, the differences in drought tolerance between arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) plants remains poorly characterized. We synthesized a global dataset of four hydraulic traits associated with drought tolerance of 1457 woody species (1139 AM and 318 EcM species) at 308 field sites. We compared these traits between AM and EcM species, with evolutionary history (i.e. angiosperms vs gymnosperms), water availability (i.e. aridity index) and biomes considered as additional factors. Overall, we found that evolutionary history and biogeography influenced differences in hydraulic traits between mycorrhizal types. Specifically, we found that (1) AM angiosperms are less drought-tolerant than EcM angiosperms in wet regions or biomes, but AM gymnosperms are more drought-tolerant than EcM gymnosperms in dry regions or biomes, and (2) in both angiosperms and gymnosperms, variation in hydraulic traits as well as their sensitivity to water availability were higher in AM species than in EcM species. Our results suggest that global shifts in water availability (especially drought) may alter the biogeographic distribution and abundance of AM and EcM plants, with consequences for ecosystem element cycling and ultimately, the land carbon sink.

Experimental evidence that root-associated fungi improve plant growth at high altitude.

Unravelling how species communities change along environmental gradients requires a dual understanding: the direct responses of the species to their abiotic surroundings and the indirect variation of these responses through biotic interactions. Here, we focus on the interactive relationships between plants and their symbiotic root-associated fungi (RAF) along stressful abiotic gradients. We investigate whether variations in RAF community composition along altitudinal gradients influence plant growth at high altitudes, where both plants and fungi face harsher abiotic conditions. We established a translocation experiment between pairs of Bistorta vivipara populations across altitudinal gradients. To separate the impact of shifting fungal communities from the overall influence of changing abiotic conditions, we used a root barrier to prevent new colonization by RAF following translocation. To characterize the RAF communities, we applied DNA barcoding to the root samples. Through the utilization of joint species distribution modelling, we assessed the relationship between changes in plant functional traits resulting from experimental treatments and the corresponding changes in the RAF communities. Our findings indicate that RAF communities influence plant responses to stressful abiotic conditions. Plants translocated from low to high altitudes grew more when they were able to associate with the resident high-altitude RAF compared to those plants that were not allowed to associate with the resident RAF. We conclude that interactions with RAF impact how plants respond to stressful abiotic conditions. Our results provide experimental support that interactions with RAF improve plant stress tolerance to altitudinal stressors such as colder temperatures and less nutrient availability.

Imperiled wanderlust lichens in steppe habitats of western North America comprise geographically structured mycobiont lineages and a reversal to sexual reproduction within this asexual clade.

The northern North American Cordillera is a globally significant center of endemism. In western North America, imperiled arid steppe habitats support a number of unique species, including several endemic lichens. However, processes driving diversification and endemism in this region remain unclear. In this study, we investigate diversity and phylogeography of the threatened wanderlust lichens (mycobiont = Rhizoplaca species) which occur unattached on calcareous soils in steppe habitats in western North America. Wanderlust lichens comprise three species of lichen-forming fungi (LFF) - Rhizoplaca arbuscula, R. haydenii, and R. idahoensis (endangered, IUCN Red List) - which occur in fragmented populations in Idaho and Wyoming, with more limited populations in southeastern Montana and northern Utah. These lichens reproduce almost exclusively via large, asexual vegetative propagules. Here, our aims were to (i) assess the evolutionary origin of this group and identify phylogeographic structure, (ii) infer ancestral geographic distributions for lineages within this clade, and (iii) use species distribution modeling to better understand the distribution of contemporary populations. Using a genome-skimming approach, we generated a 19.1 Mb alignment, spanning ca. half of the complete LFF genome, from specimens collected throughout the entire range of wanderlust lichens. Based on this phylogeny we investigated phylogeographic patterns using RASP. Finally, we used MaxEnt to estimate species distribution models for R. arbuscula and R. haydenii. We inferred a highly structured topology, with clades corresponding to distinct geographic regions and morphologies represented throughout the group's distribution. We found that R. robusta, a sexually reproducing taxon, is clearly nested within this asexual lineage. Phylogeographic analyses suggest that both dispersal and vicariance played a significant role throughout the evolutionary history of the vagrant Rhizoplaca clade, with most of the dispersal events originating from the Salmon Basin in eastern Idaho - the center of diversity for this group. Despite the fact that wanderlust lichens are dispersal limited due to large, unspecialized vegetative propagules, we inferred multiple dispersal events crossing the Continental Divide. Comparing herbarium records with SDMs suggests that wanderlust lichens don't fully occupy the areas of highest distribution probability. In fact, documented records often occur in areas predicted to be only marginally suitable. These data suggest a potential mismatch between contemporary habitats outside of the center of diversity in eastern Idaho with the most suitable habitat, adding to the vulnerability of this imperiled complex of endemic lichens.

The importance of oxygen for explaining rapid shifts in a marine fish.

Large-scale shifts in marine species biogeography have been a notable impact of climate change. An effective explanation of what drives these species shifts, as well as accurate predictions of where they might move, is crucial to effectively managing these natural resources and conserving biodiversity. While temperature has been implicated as a major driver of these shifts, physiological processes suggest that oxygen, prey, and other factors should also play important roles. We expanded upon previous temperature-based distribution models by testing whether oxygen, food web productivity, salinity, and scope for metabolic activity (the Metabolic Index) better explained the changing biogeography of Black Sea Bass (Centropristis striata) in the Northeast US. This species has been expanding further north over the past 15 years. We found that oxygen improved model performance beyond a simple consideration of temperature (ΔAIC = 799, ΔTSS = 0.015), with additional contributions from prey and salinity. However, the Metabolic Index did not substantially increase model performance relative to temperature and oxygen (ΔAIC = 0.63, ΔTSS = 0.0002). Marine species are sensitive to oxygen, and we encourage researchers to use ocean biogeochemical hindcast and forecast products to better understand marine biogeographic changes.