Migration and redistribution of the elderly: a challenge to community services.

PIP: This article analyzes regional migration and redistribution patterns of the elderly in the United States for the 1960s and 1970s, assesses motives for elderly migration, and examines the implications of elderly migration for community services. The elderly population has increased in size 54.2% from 1960 to 1980 and will increase even more by natural increase as the baby boom ages. Although the elderly are less prone to migrate than younger age groups, their two major migration trends are a movement form the Northeast and Midwest to Sunbelt states and turnaround urban-rural migration. A redistribution index shows elderly redistribution as 3.41% for the U.S., with elderly populations growing consistently in the South and West since 1960 and in the East South Central since 1970. Younger elderly tend to move at retirement to Sunbelt states. They are similar to nonmigrant younger elderly in their communities but have greater income, education, and housing ownership, which provides a short-term advantage for communities. Older elderly are more likely to move for assistance from family or to return to a former home. The elderly have a proportionately much higher use of health services (including hospital stays and doctors' visits), nursing homes, and day care centers. Numbers of younger and older elderly per nursing home bed and adult day care center space is shown by region. The North Central has the best services in proportion to population, and the South is strongly deficient in nursing home beds. Despite recent increases in the elderly population in the South and West, they still have less than their share of elderly. Although the migration of younger elderly to the South and West has been beneficial to the communities so far, as younger elderly age, they may need far more intensive community services than now exist.^ieng

Monitoring progress towards health for all by the year 2000: indicators from Iganga District, Uganda.

A sample of 5018 inhabitants in three counties of Iganga district, Uganda was selected by means of a multi-stage cluster sampling procedure and interviewed in 1984. A sub sample was re-interviewed, the following year to study population dynamics. 50.2% of the population were under 15 years of age and 4.2% were aged one year or less. About 80% of both sexes aged 6-15 years were in school or had primary education. Male adult literacy rate was 62% and female adult literacy rate was 38%. The average number of people per sleeping room was 2.4. 82.9% of households used well or unprotected spring as main source of water and 30% of households did not have pit latrine. Infant mortality rate was estimated to be 126 per 1000 livebirths and measles was the major cause of mortality (38%) in the under fives. The crude birth rate estimate was 51 per 1000. The estimate of lameness due to polio was 6.6 per 1000 children aged 15 years or below. The mean weight and the mean height of the children were both below 50th percentile of the NCHS standards. In the re-survey, the crude birth rate and infant mortality rate estimates corresponded well to the initial values for the total sample obtained in the previous survey. 5% of the population had moved out of the village and 1.8% had moved to settle in the village. The growth rate in both weight and height of the under five children was satisfactory compared to the rate of the standard. From the result of the study, only six years after adoption of PHC in Uganda, the relatively high educational level of the younger population should be taken as a positive indicator of better health indices in the future.

PIP: In 1984, 6 years after adoption of primary health care (PHC) in Uganda, a nursing officer, health visitors, and health inspectors interviewed 5018 residents of Bukuli, Bunya, and Bukooli counties of Iganga district to estimate some indicators of health for all as identified by the World Health Organization. They aimed to monitor progress toward the achievement of Health for All by the year 2000. The average household size was 5.8. The average number of people per sleeping room was 2.4. More than 50% of the population was age 14 or less. In the age group 6-14 years, 77.75% (76.3% for girls and 79.1% for boys) were attending school. For the older age groups, the gap between percentage of males and females with no education increased with age (e.g., 2.8% for 6-14 years vs. 24.9% for 15-55 years). The key source of water for 82.9% of households was a well or unprotected springs or ponds. 70% had individual pit latrines. The crude birth rate (CBR) was around 50/1000. The mean weight and height by age were lower than the 50th percentile of the National Centre for Health Statistics Standards. The infant mortality rate (IMR) stood at 126/1000 live births. Mortality for those under 5 year olds was 78/1000 population. The leading cause of death for those under 5 year olds was measles (38.4%). The polio disability rate was 6.8/1000 population under the age of 15. 20% of households had a radio. The 1985 resurvey showed little change in the CBR and the IMR (53/1000 and 100/1000, respectively). Between 1984 and 1985, 5% of the population had moved out of the village and 1.8% had moved into the village. In conclusion, despite poor estimates of several health status indicators, the youth (6-14 years) have a high level of education, suggesting improved health status indices in the future.

Urban-rural migration in Australia: a process view of the turnaround.

"This paper summarizes the evidence for the existence of a trend toward population deconcentration in Australia at the macro and meso (national and state) levels. It seeks to relate processes of population dynamics identified at macro, meso and micro levels to several hypotheses which have been put forward to explain the turnaround. A preliminary explanatory model which links causal mechanisms operating at different levels of the spatial and urban hierarchy is outlined."

Population dynamics in rural South Australia.

The authors examine recent trends in Australia in turnaround migration, or the movement of the population from urban to rural areas. "The paper assesses the major changes which have occurred in population trends within the non-metropolitan sector of the nation, South Australia and, in particular, a study area in the lower north region of South Australia. The analysis of the case study region draws upon a survey undertaken in 1968-1970 and partially replicated in 1980 and 1990. It appears that for Australia in general and for the study area the turnaround is continuing but at a slower pace and in a more spatially concentrated pattern."

The rural population turnaround: a case-study of North Devon.

The change from depopulation to population increase in the more remote rural areas of England is analyzed using data from a survey of 300 households in North Devon. The heterogeneous nature of the migrants and their reasons for migration are stressed. "The reasons for leaving the former area of residence tended to relate to lifestyle, personal or environmental factors whereas the reasons for choosing North Devon were more often about jobs and house prices. This complexity and diversity clearly makes difficult the quest for a single theory of the repopulation process."

In search of counterurbanisation: some evidence from Devon on the relationship between patterns of migration and motivation.

"The term counterurbanisation is frequently used to describe the redistribution of a population away from major cities and metropolitan areas and towards more rural areas. The widespread nature of this phenomenon has attracted much attention, yet the concept remains relatively under-developed, and even the basic definition lacks rigour. It is not surprising, therefore, that there has been a lack of cumulative evidence as to the extent of the process and little agreement as to its significance. In essence, ambiguity surrounds the types of movement that should be admitted, the necessary motives for movement and the appropriate measures for both. This paper offers some preliminary suggestions for a more structured approach to the problem. It draws on original survey data from Devon [England], a county which has experienced substantial net in-migration, both to examine the contribution of three alternative definitions of counterurbanisation and to consider how these issues relate to motivation."

"Dying villages", "counterurbanization" and the urban field--a Canadian perspective.

"This paper will review major theories on ¿rural-urban-turnaround' and the phenomenon of ¿dying villages'. It will then trace the evolution of one small settlement, Wroxeter, Ontario to describe and explain the factors that transformed it from the ¿most ghosted town in Ontario'...into a community experiencing both population growth and diversification in its economy. The Wroxeter experience will be evaluated against evidence from comparative case studies in the literature. Finally, conclusions from these studies will be weighted against those in contemporary studies of rural population turnaround, counterurbanization, rural renaissance, the urban field, and functional change in settlement systems. Idiographic findings at the local level will be compared with the conclusions of aggregate statistical studies and their nomothetic implications."

A process view of the population turnaround: an Australian rural case study.

"This paper provides empirical evidence of local-level demographic and socio-economic changes during the 'population turnaround' decade of 1970 to 1980. The study covers a contiguous area occupied by five small country towns and their trade areas, centred around 80-90 km north of Adelaide [Australia]. These communities were surveyed in detail in 1968 and 1970 in order to make forecasts of demographic change by 1980. In 1980, a replicatory resurvey provided data on various processes of population change operating at grass roots level."

The pattern of counterurbanization in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1977-85.

County-level data are used to examine the evidence for turnaround migration from urban to rural areas in the Federal Republic of Germany during the period 1978-1985. "The coexistence of suburbanization and counterurbanization for the 1978-85 time period is demonstrated. Young adults, 18-25 years of age, gravitated towards the urban cores of metropolitan areas and smaller urban areas. All the other age-groups moved mainly towards the outer suburbs of metropolitan areas, the suburbs of second-tier cities, and the rural counties. The two migration matrices indicate that counterurbanization at the level of regional planning areas was not present in 1977 but started in 1978 and it was present in 1983. At the same spatial level, evidence of a net gain of metropolitan areas from second-tier cities and rural areas is also provided for 1977. This pattern was reversed for the 1978-85 period."

Testing the recession theory as an explanation for the migration turnaround.

"In this paper the so-called recession theory explanation for the decline of net migration to large metropolitan core areas of industrialized countries is tested with an econometric time-series model. In the explanation it is contended that the migration turnaround represents only a temporary fluctuation in the general trend of urban economic and demographic spatial concentration, caused by the business cycle downturns of the 1970s. Our results show that the migration turnaround cannot be attributed exclusively to these business cycle fluctuations. For many of the countries tested, the business cycle operated simultaneously with other factors suggested as explanations for the turnaround. We conclude that several explanations should be combined to build a theory of the migration turnaround."

Population change and migration in Britain since 1981: evidence for continuing deconcentration.

Recent trends in spatial distribution and internal migration in Britain are reviewed using small-area statistics from the 1981 and 1991 censuses. "The results indicate that the differentials in the population growth rate between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan Britain narrowed somewhat between the 1970s and the 1980s, but the negative relationship between urban status and population change remained very clear. Moreover, contrary to the experience of the U.S.A. and a number of European countries, in the mid-1980s Britain saw a resurgence of nonmetropolitan growth which had widespread impact across the country."

The "clean break" revisited: is U.S. population again deconcentrating?

"The Hoover index, calculated across counties and larger spatial units, is again declining--signalling a renewal of population deconcentration in the United States. After increasing for several decades, the index declined in the 1970s when nonmetropolitan population growth surged past metropolitan-area growth, but the index rose in the 1980s as metropolitan population growth recovered and surpassed nonmetropolitan growth. We update these trends, introducing careful controls for changes in metropolitan-area boundaries, and we incorporate a ¿functional urban region' approach. Although the nonmetropolitan population growth rate is still below the metropolitan rate, we conclude that in the 1990s some features of the ¿turnaround' of the 1970s have returned."

[Population development in rural areas of the United States in the 1980s: turnaround of trends or continuity?]. / Bevolkerungsentwicklung im landlichen Raum der USA in den achtziger Jahren: Trendwende oder Kontinuitat?

"The article analyses the population growth in rural counties of the U.S.A. for 1970-80 and 1980-86. The growth rates are examined on different levels of aggregation (individual counties, subregions and regions) and in relation to several possible determinants of growth. The main objective of the study is to examine whether the growth patterns in the eighties support the hypothesis of a turnaround in the population development of rural areas.... The results reveal a diversity of growth patterns and significant regional differences. Rural counties within the daily urban system of a metropolitan area have significantly higher growth rates than peripheral rural counties. The results do not support the notion of a turnaround of long established trends. The trends in the eighties bear more resemblance to traditional growth patterns of rural areas." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

[Polarization reversal in the development of Brazilian metropolises? An analysis based on demographic indicators, using the example of Sao Paulo]. / Polarization reversal in der Entwicklung brasilianischer Metropolen? Eine Analyse anhand demographischer Indikatoren am Beispiel von Sao Paulo.

"Using the example of Sao Paulo, this paper addresses itself to the question of how far the decrease in growth rates one observes in large Brazilian metropolises can be interpreted as a process of polarization reversal. The analysis is carried out on the basis of demographic data from small area units, which include the results from the most recent 1991 census. Although it had already been possible in the 1970s to discern first indications of such a process setting in, in the decade 1981-91 indicators of population growth and migration balances agree in pointing to a polarization reversal." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Explaining the recent migration trends of the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Recent migration trends affecting the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) in Japan are analyzed. The focus is on the factors affecting the change in migration patterns which resulted in a net outflow of migrants from the area in 1994, the first time this has occurred. "The results from a set of time-series analyses lead the authors to conclude that, as far as the study period (1979-92) as a whole is concerned, the changing migration pattern of the TMA arose from factors closely related to Tokyo's transformation into a world city (specifically in terms of industrial restructuring and changes in residential land prices) and from cycles of economic boom and bust. However, it was found that the change to world city was more important than the economic cycle. Such findings suggest that the Japanese migration system experienced structural change during the 1980s and entered a new phase in the 1990s."

Rural and urban population changes and the stages of economic development: a unified approach.

The long-term aspects of the process of economic development and urbanization are examined. A model is presented that shows the dynamics of economic development from the earliest to the more advanced stages. "The model is able to explain not only the occurrence of a downturn in the rural population after the initial phase of population growth both in rural and urban areas, but also the delayed occurrence of such a downturn in many present-day developing countries. The author then focuses [on] the later stages of economic development and explains two alternative courses of urbanization, namely, the reversal process and the continual-growth process, as special cases of the general model; which of the courses occurs depends on the value of the elasticity of urban agglomeration-economies."

The evidence for urban turnaround in Norway.

"In Norway the post-war period has been characterised by centralisation of population--nationally, regionally and locally. In the mid-sixties the process slowed down and in the seventies the proportion of the population living in the nine urban regions declined. Only on the local level does the concentration process continue, but less drastically than before. With a significant exception, Gibbs' model of population concentration gives an adequate description of the changes."

What population turnaround? Some Canadian prairie settlement perspectives, 1971-1986.

The relevance of the concept of the population turnaround to the analysis of population trends in the Canadian Prairie Provinces between 1971 and 1986 is considered. "Throughout the whole period the trend to greater spatial concentration of the population has continued despite the possibility of greater dispersal. The terms population turnaround or counter-urbanization were found to be too general to summarize the varied changes in the 1970s.... In the 1980s more localized spatial trends are identified, with most places experiencing marginal growth and decline, thereby providing very different characteristics to the previous decade."

Counterurbanisation and the characteristics of persons migrating to West Cornwall.

PIP: Current theories of counter-urbanization that are directed toward explaining population redistribution at the national or regional level are first reviewed, and a more localized research framework is proposed and illustrated using data on migration to West Cornwall, England. The data are from seven different areas in West Cornwall and were collected by postal questionnaire. Three population subgroups are identified, namely, return migrants, nonreturn migrants, and nonmigrants. Clear differences among the three subgroups and the seven areas studied are shown to exist.^ieng

Recent changes in the pace of population deconcentration in Britain.

"This paper uses the official annual population estimates to examine changes in the scale of urban-rural shift in the distribution of the British population since the 1960s. These reveal that the level of population deconcentration at regional and more local scales stood at its highest at the beginning of the 1970s and that since the mid 1970s the rate of population loss experienced by London and several other large cities has diminished markedly. An analysis of the components of population change reveals that trends in net migration have been primarily responsible, though generally reinforced by trends in natural change rates. It is concluded that...most of [the 1970s] featured the downwave of a longer cycle of decentralisation which had its origins at least as early as the first half of the 1960s."