Metropolitan America: beyond the transition.

Americans have always gravitated toward cities, and for most of this century, urban growth has continued at a fast pace. During the 1970s, however, nonmetropolitan area grew at the expense of many large metropolitan areas, especially those in the industrial Northeast and Midwest. New patterns of population distribution appeared to be emerging. This Bulletin analyzes the trends of the 1970s, the shifting patterns of the 1980s, and likely prospects for future growth in metropolitan areas. The "rural renaissance" resulted from a combination of forces, including improved infrastructure in nonmetropolitan area, growing demand for retirement and recreation spots, the entrance of the large baby-boom cohort into the labor force, and the economic situation both at home and abroad. Some of these same forces have shifted settlement patterns in the 1980s, helping create "World Cities," like New York and San Francisco, and regional "Command and Control Centers" such as Atlanta and Minneapolis-St. Paul, that will continue to gain in both population and influence. Yet nonmetropolitan areas still attract retirees and other former urbanites. The distribution of minority groups among metropolitan populations is also undergoing significant change. The heavy immigration of Hispanics and Asians in the 1980s has increased the proportion of these groups, particularly in metropolitan areas in the South and West. More black Americans are moving to the suburbs formerly dominated by whites. Yet large pockets of poverty--of both black and whites--remain in both suburban and central city areas.

Urban and regional change in Australia: an empirical introduction.

Recent changes in the spatial distribution of the population in Australia are examined. In particular, changes in population by state are analyzed for the period 1971-1981. The relationship of these changes to shifts in economic activity, private investment, and banking activity is considered. "Results show there have been only small shifts toward population growth areas. These results are interpreted in part as a consequence of nonlocal multipliers and linkages back to established areas, but also as a reflection of the unique features of the Australian urban and regional system."

On population growth of cities in a region: a stochastic nonlinear model.

"A stochastic migration model describing the population dynamics in a region is investigated. The model is described by a pair of coupled differential equations with state-dependent stochasticity. Explicit expressions for the time evolution of the moments for the population sizes of cities are obtained from the Fokker-Planck equation. The Stratonovich calculus is employed in the analysis."

Interurban migration and the dynamics of a system of cities: 1. The stochastic framework with an application to the French urban system.

"A stochastic framework for the modelling of interurban migration is presented. The model is an extension of a recently developed master-equation approach to interregional migration. The population dynamics of the French urban system, described by a set of 78 cities, is investigated within the period 1954-82. The importance of synergy effects (self-reinforcing collective effects) as well as socioeconomic macrovariables for the understanding of urban dynamics becomes obvious. A forecasting of urban dynamics...[up to the year 2002 confirms] this result and [gives] further insight into the nested structure of urban systems."

Long-term urban trends in developing countries: some further econometric results.

"Urban trends in developing countries have been studied in broad terms only, which has led to improbable projections for the future. In this paper, a two-equation model has been drawn up and tested by advanced econometric methods to pinpoint the role of explanatory factors and to discover possible trend reversals. Results on both scores have been positive."

Population redistribution within the rural-urban fringe: a typology of small towns and rural municipalities in the state of New Jersey.

Population redistribution within the rural-urban fringe of the United States is examined using the state of New Jersey over the period 1970-1980 as an example. "This article provides additional evidence for the redistribution of population to the rural-urban fringe and identifies those types of municipalities that experienced the greatest growth during the 1970s. Furthermore, it finds that the factors that account for population growth at the rural-urban fringe are not only those associated with suburbanization, but also those associated with nonmetropolitan growth. It also demonstrates that population growth at the rural-urban fringe varies not only by municipal type but also by race."

Lower order cities and national urbanization policies: China and India.

The authors "examine the urbanization history and policies of China and India with a special emphasis on the lower order cities. [They] consider the proposition that, as the developing countries continue to urbanize at a rapid pace, the lower order cities can play a potentially effective role in guiding future urbanization and in securing a balanced economic and spatial development. Through an examination of the urbanization records, policies, and performance of the lower order cities in these two countries [the authors] discuss the 'top-down' versus the 'bottom-up' approaches to urbanization strategy and national development.... Differences between the urbanization policies of China and India and the transferability of the Chinese experience to other contexts [are also discussed]."

The costs of urbanization: a case study of Pakistan.

"A methodology is developed for estimating the aggregate costs of urbanization in Pakistan for 1983-2003. These costs are then compared with the future investment resource pool, and are found to be larger than the total pool. Alternative policy solutions to alleviate the problem are explored. Although some capital-saving strategies (such as major public works programs in rural areas and labor-intensive employment policies) would be helpful, it will be impossible to avoid a substantial rise in the proportion of the urban population without services from about one quarter to about one half of the total. The paper concludes with suggestions for refining the methodology in future studies."

A multiregional population-projection framework that incorporates both migration and residential mobility streams: application to metropolitan city-suburb redistribution.

"In this paper the author introduces a population-projection framework that incorporates interregional migration and intraregional residential mobility streams to project future population sizes both across and within regions in a manner that is consistent with existing migration theory. The author presents a general matrix model of the framework, shows how its parameters can be estimated from fixed-interval census migration data, and discusses how the framework can be employed to 'update' population projections when recent, more limited data sets become available. These features of the framework are demonstrated with intrametropolitan central-city-suburb projections for selected US Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas over the period, 1970-2020."

Forecasting metropolitan and urban subregional population changes and their resource use implications: methodology and example--Sydney, Australia.

This paper is concerned with the methodology of forecasting population change and structures of large cities and their major subregions. "The model isolates quantifiable base populations and their growth, and international, inter-state and city-hinterland migration streams and the national increase attributable to each, and intra-urban mobility, as components of growth and change." The model is applied to data for Sydney, Australia, and its applicability to other urban systems is considered.

The growth of large cities in India, 1961-1971.

"The general characteristics and the growth 1961-1971 of class 1 cities (those with more than 100,000 population in 1971) in India are examined. An unexpected correlation shows that the larger cities are more specialized, and growing faster. A factor analysis reduces the original variables to apparently significant factors, but these fail to classify the individual cities convincingly. An alternative simple classification of cities in terms of growth rates and degree of specialization shows strong regional components, dividing India into an emerging system of dynamic interdependent cities, and areas of stagnation and lack of specialization."

Changing settlement patterns in the German Democratic Republic: 1945-1976.

PIP: The character of changes in settlement patterns in both urban and rural areas of the northern German Democratic Republic between 1945 and 1976 is examined. The impact of a government policy aimed at concentrating population into fewer but larger central areas is analyzed, with a focus on the authoritative nature of the policy and on the desired and achieved goals.^ieng

Temporary versus permanent population mobility in Melanesia: a case study from Vanuatu.

"Melanesia's urban population tripled from...7 percent of the region's total population in 1955 to 20 percent by 1985. The recency and magnitude of this development...virtually rules out natural population growth as the principal cause behind this process of rapid urbanization and suggests massive internal population mobility as the most likely cause....This article argues that much of the alleged continued predominance of circular mobility owes more to its underlying operationalizations, ways of measurement, and theoretical conceptualizations than reflects contemporary reality. This argument is substantiated by an analysis of recent developments in Vanuatu mobility set in the local and historical conditions of migration from the island of Paama.... Evidence for this mobility change is derived from a comparative analysis of lifetime mobility histories of urban and rural Paamese men and women."

PIP: A case study of temporary and circular Melanesian population mobility and labor migration focuses on the island of Paama in the Republic of Vanuatu (an archipelago of 80 islands) in Melanesia and on urbanization, which is a relatively recent phenomena. A critical analysis is provided of temporary and permanent migration and methodological inadequacies in explanations of mobility. Mobility is neither a cause nor a result of economic, social, and political change; it is the interrelationship among the general structural setting, people's personal and social environment, and their perceptions and actions. In the case of Paamese mobility, changes appeared in the source of migration and destination areas. There was a period of original land acquisition, when migrants returning from Queensland with tools were the only ones who could actually acquire land. Inequalities of land access date from this period. The population is dependent on external income sources as well as the need for plantation migration and a huge increase in bridewealth. Concurrently, "kampani" or community work, which ensures the continuous authority of local chiefs and village elders, creates problems for those seeking work for their own families. These conditions encourage out-migration. Rapid urban growth began in the 1960s with a diversified economy. Employment opportunities were available for women; single employee residence spaces declined. This meant families could permanently settle in urban areas. Retirement benefits were also available and contributed to securing permanent migration. There were growing needs for a stable, skilled labor force. Another change was the abolishment of the tripartite colonial administration. Rural disasters and price declines also triggered urban migration. Migration to the town of Port Vila by Paamese men and women between 1953 and 1982 is analyzed, based on 258 employment related mobility histories collected in 1982-83. Two processes are evident: continued periodic, short-term, rural-based circulation and permanent urban migration among Paamese to Port Vila. A major reversal of mobility is unlikely in the future. The reasons why are indicated.

Population movement in Zhejiang province, China: the impact of government policies.

"China's urbanization policies include strict control of permanent migration to large cities, but encourage the growth of small cities and towns. Concurrently, temporary migration is widely permitted as a way to stimulate commerce. Data for Zhejiang province indicate that permanent mobility is largely directed toward urban places, that towns gain more than cities and that rural areas experience migration losses. Permanent migrants to urban places are selective of the better educated. Temporary migration is also urban directed but greater in volume than permanent migration, and places considerable strain on urban infrastructure. Government policies are a key to understanding the migration streams and migrant characteristics. The considerable net movement into cities suggests that strict control of city growth is more difficult to achieve than envisaged by policymakers." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 55, No. 3, Fall 1989, p. 386).

Underurbanisation and the zero urban growth hypothesis: diverted migration in Albania.

The author challenges the hypothesis "that the mode of production accounts for the specific forms of urbanisation under socialism and the slow urban growth observed...[and emphasizes instead] the effects of planning in the traditionally organised command economy." It is suggested that strict migration policy is a pivotal factor in achieving zero urban growth. "A case study focusing on patterns of diverted migration and the growth of non-urban settlements on the outskirts of the Albanian capital, Tirana, illustrates how the proposed explanations may help to re-interpret the particulars of urbanisation under orthodox socialist rule."

The changing population distribution of England and Wales, 1969-81: clean break or consistent progression?

PIP: Changes in population distribution in England and Wales in the period since World War II are reviewed. The focus is on whether the trend away from urban centers toward suburban and nonmetropolitan areas observed in the 1960s continued into the 1970s. It is concluded that this process of population decentralization has continued, with movement to more remote areas now also being involved, and that this process is part of the general trend away from urban centers that has characterized urbanization for many years.^ieng

Migration and the growth of metropolitan areas in the third world.

"The purpose of the present paper [is] to investigate further the role of migration in developing countries by analyzing the components of population growth in 26 large metropolitan areas in Africa, Asia, and Latin America." The process of urban population growth is first described. Then, using data from censuses and official U.N. sources, the author examines the relative importance of migration and natural increase in urban growth and in the growth of the largest urban areas. The focus is primarily on the period 1960-1970. Consideration is also given to "estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the city in order to assess the full effect of net migration on metropolitan growth, analyses of the relationships between the components of growth and several structural variables and, finally, a discussion of the results." The importance of migration as a factor affecting urban growth is noted.

[Egypt: the urbanization of an agrarian society]. / Agypten: zur Urbanisierung einer agraren Gesellschaft

PIP: Trends in urbanization in Egypt are described for the period 1882 to 1976. Particular attention is paid to the growth of the capital, Cairo.^ieng

[Urban growth and socio-spatial dynamics: Cairo from 1950 to 1990]. / Croissance urbaine et dynamique socio-spatiale: le Caire de 1950 a 1990.

Urban growth patterns in Cairo, Egypt, are analyzed over the period 1950-1990. "In the last 40 years, Cairo's population growth has been accompanied by a major shift in socio-demographic distribution. By using social area analysis models to measure the spatial structuring of social disparities, we can see how Cairo society has moved from sectoral segmentation reflecting a socio-professional hierarchy to a concentric pattern based increasingly on age differences and family structures."

Non-white migration patterns in northern metropolitan areas, 1960-1970: the interaction between economic and affinitive factors.

"The principal objective of this article is to investigate the determinants of variation in the growth of non-white populations attributable to migration across northern [U.S.] metropolitan areas during the 1960s." The investigation is done by means of a single equation framework model, which is applied to U.S. Bureau of the Census data. The results indicate that "the migration-related growth of non-white populations in northern metropolitan areas during the 1960s was...importantly and directly associated both with the level of employment opportunities as measured by the proportion of the non-white population of labor force age officially employed in the mainstream economy of an SMSA and with the SMSA rate of net migration occurring over the preceding 10-year period, which indicates the role of chain migration."