Uncovering the dual role of dimensionless radius in buckling of spherical shells with random geometric imperfections.

Localized deformation and randomly shaped imperfections are salient features of buckling-type instabilities in thin-walled load-bearing structures. However, it is generally agreed that their complex interactions in response to mechanical loading are not yet sufficiently understood, as evidenced by buckling-induced catastrophic failures which continue to today. This study investigates how the intimate coupling between localization mechanisms and geometric imperfections combine to determine the statistics of the pressure required to buckle (the illustrative example of) a hemispherical shell. The geometric imperfections, in the form of a surface, are defined by a random field generated over the nominally hemispherical shell geometry, and the probability distribution of the buckling pressure is computed via stochastic finite element analysis. Monte-Carlo simulations are performed for a wide range of the shell's radius to thickness ratio, as well as the correlation length of the spatial distribution of the imperfection. The results show that over this range, the buckling pressure is captured by the Weibull distribution. In addition, the analyses of the deformation patterns observed during the simulations provide insights into the effects of certain characteristic lengths on the local buckling that triggers global instability. In light of the simulation results, a probabilistic model is developed for the statistics of the buckling load that reveals how the dimensionless radius plays a dual role which remained hidden in previous deterministic analyses. The implications of the present model for reliability-based design of shell structures are discussed.

3-D stochastic modeling approach in thermal inactivation: estimation of thermal survival kinetics of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a hamburger after exposure to desiccation stress.

Desiccation tolerance of pathogenic bacteria is one strategy for survival in harsh environments, which has been studied extensively. However, the subsequent survival behavior of desiccation-stressed bacterial pathogens has not been clarified in detail. Herein, we demonstrated that the effect of desiccation stress on the thermotolerance of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef was limited, and its thermotolerance did not increase. E. coli O157:H7 was inoculated into a ground beef hamburger after exposure to desiccation stress. We combined a bacterial inactivation model with a heat transfer model to predict the survival kinetics of desiccation-stressed E. coli O157:H7 in a hamburger. The survival models were developed using the Weibull model for two-dimensional pouched thin beef patties (ca. 1 mm), ignoring the temperature gradient in the sample, and a three-dimensional thick beef patty (ca. 10 mm), considering the temperature gradient in the sample. The two-dimensional (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) models were subjected to stochastic variations of the estimated Weibull parameters obtained from 1,000 replicated bootstrapping based on isothermal experimental observations as uncertainties. Furthermore, the 3-D model incorporated temperature gradients in the sample calculated using the finite element method. The accuracies of both models were validated via experimental observations under non-isothermal conditions using 100 predictive simulations. The root mean squared errors in the log survival ratio of the 2-D and 3-D models for 100 simulations were 0.25-0.53 and 0.32-2.08, respectively, regardless of the desiccation stress duration (24 or 72 h). The developed approach will be useful for setting appropriate process control measures and quantitatively assessing food safety levels.IMPORTANCEAcquisition of desiccation stress tolerance in bacterial pathogens might increase thermotolerance as well and increase the risk of foodborne illnesses. If a desiccation-stressed pathogen enters a kneaded food product via cross-contamination from a food-contact surface and/or utensils, proper estimation of the internal temperature changes in the kneaded food during thermal processing is indispensable for predicting the survival kinetics of desiccation-stressed bacterial cells. Various survival kinetics prediction models that consider the uncertainty or variability of pathogenic bacteria during thermal processing have been developed. Furthermore, heat transfer processes in solid food can be estimated using finite element method software. The present study demonstrated that combining a heat transfer model with a bacterial inactivation model can predict the survival kinetics of desiccation-stressed bacteria in a ground meat sample, corresponding to the temperature gradient in a solid sample during thermal processing. Combining both modeling procedures would enable the estimation of appropriate bacterial survival kinetics in solid food.

Weibull parametric model for survival analysis in women with endometrial cancer using clinical and T2-weighted MRI radiomic features.

BACKGROUND: Semiparametric survival analysis such as the Cox proportional hazards (CPH) regression model is commonly employed in endometrial cancer (EC) study. Although this method does not need to know the baseline hazard function, it cannot estimate event time ratio (ETR) which measures relative increase or decrease in survival time. To estimate ETR, the Weibull parametric model needs to be applied. The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate the Weibull parametric model for EC patients' survival analysis. METHODS: Training (n = 411) and testing (n = 80) datasets from EC patients were retrospectively collected to investigate this problem. To determine the optimal CPH model from the training dataset, a bi-level model selection with minimax concave penalty was applied to select clinical and radiomic features which were obtained from T2-weighted MRI images. After the CPH model was built, model diagnostic was carried out to evaluate the proportional hazard assumption with Schoenfeld test. Survival data were fitted into a Weibull model and hazard ratio (HR) and ETR were calculated from the model. Brier score and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were compared between CPH and Weibull models. Goodness of the fit was measured with Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic. RESULTS: Although the proportional hazard assumption holds for fitting EC survival data, the linearity of the model assumption is suspicious as there are trends in the age and cancer grade predictors. The result also showed that there was a significant relation between the EC survival data and the Weibull distribution. Finally, it showed that Weibull model has a larger AUC value than CPH model in general, and it also has smaller Brier score value for EC survival prediction using both training and testing datasets, suggesting that it is more accurate to use the Weibull model for EC survival analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The Weibull parametric model for EC survival analysis allows simultaneous characterization of the treatment effect in terms of the hazard ratio and the event time ratio (ETR), which is likely to be better understood. This method can be extended to study progression free survival and disease specific survival. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03543215, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ , date of registration: 30th June 2017.

Larger particle size distribution of environmental RNA compared to environmental DNA: a case study targeting the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene in zebrafish (Danio rerio) using experimental aquariums.

Environmental RNA (eRNA) analysis is conventionally expected to infer physiological information about organisms within their ecosystems, whereas environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis only infers their presence and abundance. Despite the promise of eRNA application, basic research on eRNA characteristics and dynamics is limited. The present study conducted aquarium experiments using zebrafish (Danio rerio) to estimate the particle size distribution (PSD) of eRNA in order to better understand the persistence state of eRNA particles. Rearing water samples were sequentially filtered using different pore-size filters, and the resulting size-fractioned mitochondrial cytochrome b (CytB) eDNA and eRNA data were modeled with the Weibull complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) to estimate the parameters characterizing the PSDs. It was revealed that the scale parameter (α) was significantly higher (i.e., the mean particle size was larger) for eRNA than eDNA, while the shape parameter (ß) was not significantly different between them. This result supports the hypothesis that most eRNA particles are likely in a protected, intra-cellular state, which mitigates eRNA degradation in water. Moreover, these findings also imply the heterogeneous dispersion of eRNA relative to eDNA and suggest an efficient method of eRNA collection using a larger pore-size filter. Further studies on the characteristics and dynamics of eRNA particles should be pursued in the future.

A robust optimal control framework for controlling aberrant RTK signaling pathways in esophageal cancer.

This study presents a new framework for obtaining personalized optimal treatment strategies targeting aberrant signaling pathways in esophageal cancer, such as the epidermal growth factor (EGF) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) signaling pathways. A new pharmacokinetic model is developed taking into account specific heterogeneities of these signaling mechanisms. The optimal therapies are designed to be obtained using a three step process. First, a finite-dimensional constrained optimization problem is solved to obtain the parameters of the pharmacokinetic model, using discrete patient data measurements. Next, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine which of the parameters are sensitive to the evolution of the variants of EGF receptors and VEGF receptors. Finally, a second optimal control problem is solved based on the sensitivity analysis results, using a modified pharmacokinetic model that incorporates two representative drugs Trastuzumab and Bevacizumab, targeting EGF and VEGF, respectively. Numerical results with the combination of the two drugs demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed framework.

Statistical Parameters Extracted from Radar Sea Clutter Simulated under Different Operational Conditions.

A complete framework of predicting the attributes of sea clutter under different operational conditions, specified by wind speed, wind direction, grazing angle, and polarization, is proposed for the first time. This framework is composed of empirical spectra to characterize sea-surface profiles under different wind speeds, the Monte Carlo method to generate realizations of sea-surface profiles, the physical-optics method to compute the normalized radar cross-sections (NRCSs) from individual sea-surface realizations, and regression of NRCS data (sea clutter) with an empirical probability density function (PDF) characterized by a few statistical parameters. JONSWAP and Hwang ocean-wave spectra are adopted to generate realizations of sea-surface profiles at low and high wind speeds, respectively. The probability density functions of NRCSs are regressed with K and Weibull distributions, each characterized by two parameters. The probability density functions in the outlier regions of weak and strong signals are regressed with a power-law distribution, each characterized by an index. The statistical parameters and power-law indices of the K and Weibull distributions are derived for the first time under different operational conditions. The study reveals succinct information of sea clutter that can be used to improve the radar performance in a wide variety of complicated ocean environments. The proposed framework can be used as a reference or guidelines for designing future measurement tasks to enhance the existing empirical models on ocean-wave spectra, normalized radar cross-sections, and so on.

Ultrathin lithium disilicate and translucent zirconia crowns for posterior teeth: Survival and failure modes.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the reliability and failure modes of ultrathin (0.5 mm) lithium disilicate, translucent and ultra-translucent zirconia crowns for posterior teeth restorations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty-four mandibular first molar crowns of three ceramic materials: (1) Lithium disilicate (e.max CAD, Ivoclar Vivadent), (2) 3Y-TZP (Zirconn Translucent, Vipi), and (3) 5Y-PSZ (Cercon XT, Dentsply Sirona), with 0.5 mm of thickness were milled and cemented onto composite resin abutments. Eighteen samples of each group were tested under mouth-motion step-stress accelerated life testing in a humid environment using mild, moderate, and aggressive profiles. Data was subjected to Weibull statistics. Use level curves were plotted and reliability was calculated for a given mission of 100,000 cycles at 100, 200, and 300 N. Fractographic analyses of representative samples were performed in scanning electron microscope. RESULTS: Beta (ß) values suggest that failures were dictated by material's strength for lithium disilicate and by fatigue damage accumulation for both zirconias. No significant differences were detected in Weibull modulus and characteristic strength among groups. At a given mission of 100,000 cycles at 100 N, lithium disilicate presented higher reliability (98% CB: 95-99) regarding 3Y-TZP and 5Y-PSZ groups (84% CB: 65%-93% and 79% CB: 37&-94%, respectively). At 200 N, lithium disilicate reliability (82% CB: 66%-91%) was higher than 5Y-PSZ (20% CB: 4%-44%) and not significantly different from 3Y-TZP (54% CB: 32%-72%). Furthermore, at 300 N no significant differences in reliability were detected among groups, with a notable reduction in the reliability of all materials. Fractographic analyses showed that crack initiated at the interface between the composite core and the ceramic crowns due to tensile stress generated at the intaglio surface. CONCLUSIONS: Ultrathin lithium disilicate crowns demonstrated higher reliability relative to zirconia crowns at functional loads. Lithium disilicate and zirconia crown's reliability decreased significantly for missions at higher loads and similar failure modes were observed regardless of crown material. The indication of 0.5 mm thickness crowns in high-load bearing regions must be carefully evaluated. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Ultraconservative lithium disilicate and zirconia crowns of 0.5 mm thickness may be indicated in anterior restorations and pre-molars. Their clinical indication in high-load requirement regions must be carefully evaluated.

Mechanical properties of 3D-printed and milled composite resins for definitive restorations: An in vitro comparison of initial strength and fatigue behavior.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the flexural strength and fatigue behavior of a novel 3D-printed composite resin for definitive restorations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty disc-shaped specimens were manufactured from each of a nanohybrid composite resin (NHC), polymer-infiltrated ceramic network (PICN), and 3D-printed composite resin (3D) with CAD-CAM technology. Biaxial flexural strength (σin ) (n = 30 per group) and biaxial flexural fatigue strength (σff ) (n = 20 per group) were measured using piston-on-three-balls method, employing a staircase approach of 105 cycles. Weibull statistics, relative-strength degradation calculations, and fractography were performed. The results were analyzed with 1-way ANOVA and Games-Howell post hoc test (α = 0.05). RESULTS: Significant differences in σin and σff among the groups (p < 0.001) were detected. The NHC group provided the highest mean ± standard deviation σin and σff (237.3 ± 31.6 MPa and 141.3 ± 3.8 MPa), followed by the PICN (140.3 ± 12.9 MPa and 73.5 ± 9.9 MPa) and the 3D (83.6 ± 18.5 MPa and 37.4 ± 23.8 MPa) groups. The 3D group exhibited significantly lower Weibull modulus (m = 4.7) and up to 15% higher relative strength degradation with areas of nonhomogeneous microstructure as possible fracture origins. CONCLUSIONS: The 3D-printed composite resin exhibited the lowest mechanical properties, where areas of nonhomogeneous microstructure developed during the mixing procedure served as potential fracture origins. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: The clinical indications of the investigated novel 3D-printed composite resin should be limited to long-term provisional restorations. A cautious procedure for mixing the components is crucial before the 3D-printing process, since nonhomogeneous areas developed during the mixing could act as fracture origins.

Marginal adaptation and fracture resistance of virgilite-based occlusal veneers with varying thickness.

STATEMENT OF PROBLEM: CAD/CAM occlusal veneers have been developed for minimally invasive prosthetic restoration of eroded teeth. Marginal adaptation and fracture resistance are crucial for the long-term survivability and clinical success of such restorations. Virgilite-based lithium disilicate glass-ceramic is a newly introduced material with claims of high strength. However, constructing occlusal veneers from this material of varying thickness has not been investigated. PURPOSE: The current study aimed to assess the impact of CAD/CAM occlusal veneer thickness and materials on marginal adaptation and fracture resistance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-two occlusal veneers were constructed and divided into two groups (n = 16) based on the CAD/CAM material into Brilliant Crios and CEREC Tessera. Each group was further subdivided into two subgroups (n = 8) according to the thickness: 0.6 and 0.9 mm. Occlusal veneers were bonded to epoxy resin dies. The marginal gap was evaluated before and after thermodynamic aging. Fracture resistance and failure mode were evaluated for the same samples after aging. Marginal adaptation was analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test. Fracture resistance was analyzed using Weibull analysis (α = 0.05). RESULTS: The marginal gap was significantly increased following thermodynamic aging for tested groups (P < 0.001). CEREC Tessera showed a significantly higher marginal gap than Brilliant Crios before and after aging for both thicknesses (P < 0.05). CEREC Tessera recorded lower significant fracture load values compared to Brilliant Crios (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Both CEREC Tessera and Brilliant Crios demonstrated clinically accepted marginal gap values. All groups showed fracture resistance values higher than the average masticatory forces in the premolar region except for 0.6 mm CEREC Tessera. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Reinforced composite occlusal veneers demonstrated more favorable outcomes in terms of marginal gap and fracture resistance at both tested thicknesses compared to virgilite-based lithium disilicate glass-ceramic. Additionally, caution should be exercised during the construction of occlusal veneers from virgilite-based lithium disilicate glass-ceramic with reduced thickness.

Flexural properties and fatigue limit of 3D-printed and milled resin-based materials.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the flexural strength (FS), flexural modulus (FM), and fatigue limit (FL) of 3D-printed resin-based polymers and composites and compare them to 3D-printed composites. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A bar-shaped specimen (25 × 2 × 2 mm) was CAD designed according to ISO 4049:2019, and 60 duplicates of the 3D model were nested at a 45-degree angle with the printing platform and 3D-printed with three materials: denture teeth resin (Denture Teeth, Formlabs), temporary crown and bridge resin (Temporary CB, Formlabs), and composite (Flexcera Smile Ultra+, Desktop Health). The 3D model was also imported into a dental CAM software, duplicated 60 times, nested, and milled from a 3D-milled composite puck (Ivotion Denture Teeth, Ivoclar). All specimens were post-processed following the manufacturer's recommendation. The specimens were then subjected to a three-point bending test until failure using a Universal Testing Machine at a crosshead speed of 0.75 mm/min, and FS and FM were calculated. The remaining thirty specimens were tested for Fatigue Limit using the staircase approach starting at 50% FS maximum up to 1.2 M cycles at 10 Hz. The data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA and the Weibull distribution (α = 0.05). RESULTS: The results showed that Ivotion and Flexcera had higher FS (110.3 ± 7.1 MPa and 107.6 ± 6.4 MPa, respectively) and FM (3.3 ± 0.1 GPa and 3.0 ± 0.2 GPa, respectively) compared to the 3D-printed Denture Teeth (FS = 66.4 ± 18.5 MPa and FM = 1.8 ± 0.1 GPa) and Temporary CB (FS = 79.6 ± 12.1 MPa and FM = 2.7 ± 0.4 GPa). Weibull analysis showed that the Ivotion and Flexcera had a more uniform and narrower spatial distribution of defects (m: 27.98 and 29.19) than the printed materials, which had m values of 8.17 and 4.11 for Temporary CB and Denture Teeth, respectively. Although no differences were found in the static properties (FS and FM) between Ivotion and Flexcera, Ivotion presented a higher endurance limit than Flexcera (51.43 vs. 40.95 MPa). The Temporary CB presented 21.08 MPa and Denture Teeth presented 17.80 MPa of endurance limit. CONCLUSIONS: 3D-milled (Ivotion Denture Teeth) and 3D-printed (Flexcera Smile Ultra+) composites outperformed 3D-printed resins (Formlabs Denture Teeth and Temporary Crown & Bridge) in terms of flexural properties and fatigue resistance. 3D-milled (Ivotion) and 3D-printed (Flexcera) composites exhibited similar flexural properties, but 3D-milled composites showed a 25% higher fatigue endurance limit, suggesting improved clinical longevity.

Aging Intensity for Step-Stress Accelerated Life Testing Experiments.

The aging intensity (AI), defined as the ratio of the instantaneous hazard rate and a baseline hazard rate, is a useful tool for the describing reliability properties of a random variable corresponding to a lifetime. In this work, the concept of AI is introduced in step-stress accelerated life testing (SSALT) experiments, providing new insights to the model and enabling the further clarification of the differences between the two commonly employed cumulative exposure (CE) and tampered failure rate (TFR) models. New AI-based estimators for the parameters of a SSALT model are proposed and compared to the MLEs in terms of examples and a simulation study.

Recycling potential of cobalt metal from end-of-life new energy passenger vehicles in China.

The growing demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has resulted in a corresponding increase in demand for cobalt as a critical material. It is crucial to estimate the cobalt resource recycling potential of China's NEV industry to ensure a balance between the supply and demand for cobalt metal minerals. This article is based on using the historical data of the new energy passenger vehicle (NEPV) sales volume from 2013 to 2022 to estimate the NEPV sales volume from 2023 to 2035. On this basis, the Weibull distribution was used to analyse the different sales scenarios (low sales and high sales) of NEPVs in China, and the recycling potential of cobalt metal in NEPVs was evaluated under three battery life scenarios (8, 10 and 12 years) from 2023 to 2035. Based on the above scenarios, in 2035, the greatest recycling potential of cobalt is predicted to be 166.9 kilotonnes, with economic values of CNY 49.01-94.60 billion. Moreover, the extent to which the recycling potential of cobalt can cover the market demand for NEPVs was analysed. Our analysis concluded that recycling cobalt as a secondary supply has emerged as a necessary solution to supplement the primary supply, which can make a significant contribution to alleviating the pressure of the supply and demand.

Clayton copula for survival data with dependent censoring: An application to a tuberculosis treatment adherence data.

Ignoring the presence of dependent censoring in data analysis can lead to biased estimates, for example, not considering the effect of abandonment of the tuberculosis treatment may influence inferences about the cure probability. In order to assess the relationship between cure and abandonment outcomes, we propose a copula Bayesian approach. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to introduce a Bayesian survival regression model, capable of taking into account the dependent censoring in the adjustment. So, this proposed approach is based on Clayton's copula, to provide the relation between survival and dependent censoring times. In addition, the Weibull and the piecewise exponential marginal distributions are considered in order to fit the times. A simulation study is carried out to perform comparisons between different scenarios of dependence, different specifications of prior distributions, and comparisons with the maximum likelihood inference. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to a tuberculosis treatment adherence dataset of an HIV cohort from Alvorada-RS, Brazil. Results show that cure and abandonment outcomes are negatively correlated, that is, as long as the chance of abandoning the treatment increases, the chance of tuberculosis cure decreases.

Standardised empirical dispersal kernels emphasise the pervasiveness of long-distance dispersal in European birds.

Dispersal is a key life-history trait for most species and is essential to ensure connectivity and gene flow between populations and facilitate population viability in variable environments. Despite the increasing importance of range shifts due to global change, dispersal has proved difficult to quantify, limiting empirical understanding of this phenotypic trait and wider synthesis. Here, we introduce a statistical framework to estimate standardised dispersal kernels from biased data. Based on this, we compare empirical dispersal kernels for European breeding birds considering age (average dispersal; natal, before first breeding; and breeding dispersal, between subsequent breeding attempts) and sex (females and males) and test whether different dispersal properties are phylogenetically conserved. We standardised and analysed data from an extensive volunteer-based bird ring-recoveries database in Europe (EURING) by accounting for biases related to different censoring thresholds in reporting between countries and to migratory movements. Then, we fitted four widely used probability density functions in a Bayesian framework to compare and provide the best statistical descriptions of the different age and sex-specific dispersal kernels for each bird species. The dispersal movements of the 234 European bird species analysed were statistically best explained by heavy-tailed kernels, meaning that while most individuals disperse over short distances, long-distance dispersal is a prevalent phenomenon in almost all bird species. The phylogenetic signal in both median and long dispersal distances estimated from the best-fitted kernel was low (Pagel's λ < 0.25), while it reached high values (Pagel's λ >0.7) when comparing dispersal distance estimates for fat-tailed dispersal kernels. As expected in birds, natal dispersal was on average 5 km greater than breeding dispersal, but sex-biased dispersal was not detected. Our robust analytical framework allows sound use of widely available mark-recapture data in standardised dispersal estimates. We found strong evidence that long-distance dispersal is common among European breeding bird species and across life stages. The dispersal estimates offer a first guide to selecting appropriate dispersal kernels in range expansion studies and provide new avenues to improve our understanding of the mechanisms and rules underlying dispersal events.

La dispersión es un rasgo clave del ciclo vital de la mayoría de las especies y es esencial para garantizar la conectividad y el flujo genético entre poblaciones y contribuir a la viabilidad de la población en contextos de ambiente variable. A pesar de que la dispersión es clave para estudiar los cambios en el área de distribución de las especies debido al cambio global, la dispersión es difícil de cuantificar, lo que limita la comprensión empírica de este rasgo fenotípico y su síntesis más amplia. Aquí introducimos un marco de trabajo estadístico para estimar de manera estandarizada los kernels de dispersión a partir de datos sesgados. Basándonos en este marco, comparamos los kernels de dispersión empíricos para las aves reproductoras europeas considerando la edad (dispersión media vital; natal, antes de la primera reproducción; y dispersión reproductora, entre los intentos de reproducción posteriores) y el sexo (hembras y machos), además de explorar si las diferentes propiedades de dispersión se conservan filogenéticamente. Estandarizamos y analizamos los datos de una extensa base de datos de anillamiento de aves en Europa (EURING), basada en voluntarios, teniendo en cuenta los sesgos relacionados con los diferentes umbrales de comunicación de las anillas entre países y con los movimientos migratorios. A continuación, ajustamos, en un marco bayesiano, cuatro funciones de probabilidad ampliamente utilizadas para comparar y proporcionar las mejores descripciones estadísticas de los diferentes kernels de dispersión por edad y sexo para cada especie de ave. Los movimientos de dispersión de las 234 especies de aves europeas analizadas se explicaron estadísticamente mejor mediante kernels de cola pesada, lo que significa que, aunque la mayoría de los individuos se dispersan en distancias cortas, la dispersión a larga distancia es un fenómeno prevalente en casi todas las especies de aves. La señal filogenética tanto en las distancias de dispersión medias como en las largas estimadas a partir del kernel mejor ajustado fue baja (λ de Pagel < 0,25), mientras que alcanzó valores altos (λ de Pagel >0,7) al comparar las estimas de distancia de dispersión para los kernels de cola pesada. Como se esperaba en las aves, la dispersión natal fue en promedio 5 km mayor que la dispersión reproductiva, pero no se detectó una dispersión sesgada por sexo. Nuestro robusto marco analítico permite un buen uso de los datos de marcaje y recaptura disponibles para la estimación estandarizada de las distancias de dispersión. Hemos encontrado pruebas sólidas de que la dispersión a larga distancia es común entre las especies de aves reproductoras europeas y en todas las etapas de la vida. Las estimas de dispersión ofrecen un primer paso para seleccionar los kernels de dispersión adecuados para los estudios de expansión del rango de distribución y proporcionar nuevas vías de investigación para mejorar nuestra comprensión de los mecanismos y procesos que subyacen a los eventos de dispersión.

Efficient algorithms for real-time syndromic surveillance.

OBJECTIVE: Outbreaks of influenza-like diseases often cause spikes in the demand for hospital beds. Early detection of these outbreaks can enable improved management of hospital resources. The objective of this study was to test whether surveillance algorithms designed to be responsive to a wide range of anomalous decreases in the time between emergency department (ED) presentations with influenza-like illnesses provide efficient early detection of these outbreaks. METHODS: Our study used data on ED presentations to major public hospitals in Queensland, Australia across 2017-2020. We developed surveillance algorithms for each hospital that flag potential outbreaks when the average time between successive ED presentations with influenza-like illnesses becomes anomalously small. We designed one set of algorithms to be responsive to a wide range of anomalous decreases in the time between presentations. These algorithms concurrently monitor three exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMAs) of the time between presentations and flag an outbreak when at least one EWMA falls below its control limit. We designed another set of algorithms to be highly responsive to narrower ranges of anomalous decreases in the time between presentations. These algorithms monitor one EWMA of the time between presentations and flag an outbreak when the EWMA falls below its control limit. Our algorithms use dynamic control limits to reflect that the average time between presentations depends on the time of year, time of day, and day of the week. RESULTS: We compared the performance of the algorithms in detecting the start of two epidemic events at the hospital-level: the 2019 seasonal influenza outbreak and the early-2020 COVID-19 outbreak. The algorithm that concurrently monitors three EWMAs provided significantly earlier detection of these outbreaks than the algorithms that monitor one EWMA. CONCLUSION: Surveillance algorithms designed to be responsive to a wide range of anomalous decreases in the time between ED presentations are highly efficient at detecting outbreaks of influenza-like diseases at the hospital level.

Modelling the deactivation of Escherichia coli in Nigerian soils amended with differently treated manures.

AIM: This study aimed to simulate deactivation of Escherichia coli in soils amended with cattle manure after burning, anaerobic digestion, composting, or without treatment. METHOD AND RESULTS: The Weibull survival function was used to describe deactivation of E. coli. Parameters for each treatment were determined using E. coli measurements from manure-amended soils and evaluated against measurements at different application rates. A statistically significant correlation and high coincidence between the simulated and measured values were obtained. The simulations revealed that although anaerobic digestion or burning of cattle manure effectively reduced the E. coli loads to background levels, burning retained very little nitrogen, so the ash residue was ineffective as an organic fertilizer. Anaerobic digestion was most effective at reducing E. coli levels while retaining a high proportion of N in the bioslurry residue, but the persistence of E. coli was higher than in compost. CONCLUSION: The results from this study suggest that the safest method for production of organic fertilizer would involve anaerobic digestion to reduce E. coli, followed by composting to reduce its persistence.

Predictors of time to first symptomatic recovery of major depressive disordered patients: a case study at Jimma University Medical Center.

BACKGROUND: Major Depressive Disorder is one of the most common mental disorders, and it is the main cause of disability worldwide with a prevalence ranging from 7 to 21%. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to predict the time it took for patients with severe depressive disorders at Jimma University Medical Center to experience their initial symptomatic recovery. STUDY DESIGN: The researchers utilized a prospective study design. METHODS: Patients with major depressive disorder were followed up on at Jimma University Medical Center from September 2018 to August 2020 for this study. The Gamma and Inverse Gaussian frailty distributions were employed with Weibull, Log-logistic, and Log-normal as baseline hazard functions. Akaike Information Criteria were used to choose the best model for describing the data. RESULTS: This study comprised 366 patients, with 54.1% of them experiencing their first symptomatic recovery from a severe depressive disorder. The median time from the onset of symptoms to symptomatic recovery was 7 months. In the study area, there was a clustering effect in terms of time to first symptomatic recovery from major depressive disorder. According to the Log-normal Inverse-Gaussian frailty model, marital status, chewing khat, educational status, work status, substance addiction, and other co-variables were significant predictors of major depressive disorder (p-value < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The best model for describing the time to the first symptomatic recovery of major depressive disorder is the log-normal Inverse-Gaussian frailty model. Being educated and working considerably were the variables that reduces the time to first symptomatic recovery from major depressive disorder; whereas being divorced, chewing khat, substance abused and other co-factors were the variables that significantly extends the time to first symptomatic recovery.

Analysis of Appendicitis Cases in the Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report (JADER) Database.

Appendicitis is one of the most common abdominal surgical emergencies worldwide; however, its causes remain poorly understood. The Japanese Adverse Drug Event Report (JADER) database is a spontaneous reporting system (SRS) that can be utilized to analyze the safety signals of adverse events. In this study, we investigated the association between drug use and the onset of appendicitis using the JADER database. We first used the reporting odds ratio (ROR) as the signal and found signals for appendicitis, perforated appendicitis, and complicated appendicitis for 23, 9, and 1 drug, respectively. To investigate the level of hazard over time in drug-associated appendicitis, the Weibull shape parameter ß was calculated using a Weibull plot, which revealed drug-dependent patterns for changes in the risk of appendicitis over time for the eight drugs. Furthermore, logistic regression analysis was performed to account for the influence of age, sex, and primary disease, and a significant association was detected between two drugs and appendicitis. Several types of drugs, such as antitumor, antirheumatic, and anti-inflammatory drugs, were included in our analyses; however, only clozapine, which is used for patients with schizophrenia, was commonly identified in these analyses. The resulting data suggest that certain drugs may be associated with appendicitis and may require adequate attention.

Sample size reestimation and Bayesian predictive probability for single-arm clinical trials with a time-to-event endpoint using Weibull distribution with unknown shape parameter.

This manuscript consists of two topics. Firstly, we explore the utility of internal pilot study (IPS) approach for reestimating sample size at an interim stage when a reliable estimate of the nuisance shape parameter of the Weibull distribution for modeling survival data is unavailable during the planning phase of a study. Although IPS approach can help rescue the study power, it is noted that the adjusted sample size can be as much as twice the initially planned sample size, which may put substantial practical constraints to continue the study. Secondly, we discuss Bayesian predictive probability for conducting interim analyses to obtain preliminary evidence of efficacy or futility of an experimental treatment warranting early termination of a clinical trial. In the context of single-arm clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints following Weibull distribution, we present the calculation of the Bayesian predictive probability when the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution is unknown. Based on the data accumulated at the interim, we propose two approaches which rely on the posterior mode or the entire posterior distribution of the shape parameter. To account for uncertainty in the shape parameter, it is recommended to incorporate its entire posterior distribution in our calculation.

Parameter estimation of Weibull distribution for the number of days between drug administration and early onset adverse event.

The Weibull distribution is applied to the number of days between the start date of drug administration and the date of occurrence of an adverse event. The tendency of occurrence of adverse events can be clarified by estimating the two- or three-parameter Weibull distribution, using the data regarding the number of days. Our purpose is to estimate the parameters of the Weibull distribution with high accuracy, even in low-reported adverse events, such as new drugs, polypharmacy and small clinical trials. Furthermore, the two-sample Kolmogorov - Smirnov test (two-sided) is used to examine whether the tendency of occurrence of adverse events is different for two Weibull distributions estimated from two drugs with similar efficacy. We used discrete data derived from FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS), as the FAERS data are presented in years, months and days without hours and minutes. Because this study focuses on early onset adverse events, data may be contained 0 days. The discreteness of the data and the fact that it may include zero make this distribution different from the general Weibull distribution, which is defined for continuous data greater than zero. We search for the optimal parameter estimation method for the Weibull distribution under these two conditions, and verify its effectiveness using Monte Carlo simulations and FAERS data. Because the results obtained from FAERS data may differ depending on data handling, we describe the of data handling technique and the sample code that can reproduce the results.