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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Despite the poor prognosis associated with missed or delayed spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) diagnosis, <15% get timely paracentesis, which persists despite guidelines/education in the United States. Measures to exclude SBP non-invasively where timely paracentesis cannot be performed could streamline this burden. METHODS: Using Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse (VHA-CDW) we included patients with cirrhosis between 2009 and 2019 who underwent timely paracentesis and collected relevant clinical information (demographics, cirrhosis severity, medications, vitals, and comorbidities). XGBoost-models were trained on 75% of the primary cohort, with 25% reserved for testing. The final model was further validated in 2 cohorts: Validation cohort #1: In VHA-CDW, those without prior SBP who received 2nd early paracentesis, and Validation cohort #2: Prospective data from 276 non-electively admitted University hospital patients. RESULTS: Negative predictive values (NPVs) at 5%,10%, and 15% probability cutoffs were examined. Primary cohort: n = 9643 (mean age, 63.1 ± 8.7 years; 97.2% men; SBP, 15.0%) received first early paracentesis. Testing-set NPVs for SBP were 96.5%, 93.0%, and 91.6% at the 5%, 10%, and 15% probability thresholds, respectively. In Validation cohort #1: n = 2844 (mean age, 63.14 ± 8.37 years; 97.1% male; SBP, 9.7%) with NPVs were 98.8%, 95.3%, and 94.5%. In Validation cohort #2: n = 276 (mean age, 56.08 ± 9.09; 59.6% male; SBP, 7.6%) with NPVs were 100%, 98.9%, and 98.0% The final machine learning model showed the greatest net benefit on decision-curve analyses. CONCLUSIONS: A machine learning model generated using routinely collected variables excluded SBP with high NPV. Applying this model could ease the need to provide paracentesis in resource-limited settings by excluding those unlikely to have SBP.
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BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (LBW) has been linked to infant mortality. Predicting LBW is a valuable preventative tool and predictor of newborn health risks. The current study employed a machine learning model to predict LBW. METHODS: This study implemented predictive LBW models based on the data obtained from the "Iranian Maternal and Neonatal Network (IMaN Net)" from January 2020 to January 2022. Women with singleton pregnancies above the gestational age of 24 weeks were included. Exclusion criteria included multiple pregnancies and fetal anomalies. A predictive model was built using eight statistical learning models (logistic regression, decision tree classification, random forest classification, deep learning feedforward, extreme gradient boost model, light gradient boost model, support vector machine, and permutation feature classification with k-nearest neighbors). Expert opinion and prior observational cohorts were used to select candidate LBW predictors for all models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score were measured to evaluate their diagnostic performance. RESULTS: We found 1280 women with a recorded LBW out of 8853 deliveries, for a frequency of 14.5%. Deep learning (AUROC: 0.86), random forest classification (AUROC: 0.79), and extreme gradient boost classification (AUROC: 0.79) all have higher AUROC and perform better than others. When the other performance parameters of the models mentioned above with higher AUROC were compared, the extreme gradient boost model was the best model to predict LBW with an accuracy of 0.79, precision of 0.87, recall of 0.69, and F1 score of 0.77. According to the feature importance rank, gestational age and prior history of LBW were the top critical predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Although this study found that the extreme gradient boost model performed well in predicting LBW, more research is needed to make a better conclusion on the performance of ML models in predicting LBW.