The expansion of agriculture has shaped the recent evolutionary history of a specialized squash pollinator.

The expansion of agriculture is responsible for the mass conversion of biologically diverse natural environments into managed agroecosystems dominated by a handful of genetically homogeneous crop species. Agricultural ecosystems typically have very different abiotic and ecological conditions from those they replaced and create potential niches for those species that are able to exploit the abundant resources offered by crop plants. While there are well-studied examples of crop pests that have adapted into novel agricultural niches, the impact of agricultural intensification on the evolution of crop mutualists such as pollinators is poorly understood. We combined genealogical inference from genomic data with archaeological records to demonstrate that the Holocene demographic history of a wild specialist pollinator of Cucurbita (pumpkins, squashes, and gourds) has been profoundly impacted by the history of agricultural expansion in North America. Populations of the squash bee Eucera pruinosa experienced rapid growth in areas where agriculture intensified within the past 1,000 y, suggesting that the cultivation of Cucurbita in North America has increased the amount of floral resources available to these bees. In addition, we found that roughly 20% of this bee species' genome shows signatures of recent selective sweeps. These signatures are overwhelmingly concentrated in populations from eastern North America where squash bees were historically able to colonize novel environments due to human cultivation of Cucurbita pepo and now exclusively inhabit agricultural niches. These results suggest that the widespread cultivation of crops can prompt adaptation in wild pollinators through the distinct ecological conditions imposed by agricultural environments.

Infectious disease responses to human climate change adaptations.

Many recent studies have examined the impact of predicted changes in temperature and precipitation patterns on infectious diseases under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. But these emissions scenarios symbolize more than altered temperature and precipitation regimes; they also represent differing levels of change in energy, transportation, and food production at a global scale to reduce the effects of climate change. The ways humans respond to climate change, either through adaptation or mitigation, have underappreciated, yet hugely impactful effects on infectious disease transmission, often in complex and sometimes nonintuitive ways. Thus, in addition to investigating the direct effects of climate changes on infectious diseases, it is critical to consider how human preventative measures and adaptations to climate change will alter the environments and hosts that support pathogens. Here, we consider the ways that human responses to climate change will likely impact disease risk in both positive and negative ways. We evaluate the evidence for these impacts based on the available data, and identify research directions needed to address climate change while minimizing externalities associated with infectious disease, especially for vulnerable communities. We identify several different human adaptations to climate change that are likely to affect infectious disease risk independently of the effects of climate change itself. We categorize these changes into adaptation strategies to secure access to water, food, and shelter, and mitigation strategies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. We recognize that adaptation strategies are more likely to have infectious disease consequences for under-resourced communities, and call attention to the need for socio-ecological studies to connect human behavioral responses to climate change and their impacts on infectious disease. Understanding these effects is crucial as climate change intensifies and the global community builds momentum to slow these changes and reduce their impacts on human health, economic productivity, and political stability.

Attitudes and opportunities: comparing climate change adaptation intentions and decisions of agricultural producers in Shaanxi, China, and British Columbia, Canada.

Climate change poses a major challenge for agricultural producers. There are a variety of adaptation strategies producers can use to enhance their resilience to the changing climate. The theory of planned behavior is applied as a framework to compare the adaptation intentions and choices of producers in Cariboo and Okanagan regions of the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada, and Baoji and Xi'an city prefectures of Shaanxi (SX) province, China. In BC, producers are more likely to explore the use of new crop varieties, and BC producers also seem to have a stronger intention to invest in irrigation efficiency. In contrast, producers in SX are far more likely to use online marketing methods to connect directly with consumers. Based on transcripts from a set of focus groups, community meetings, and interviews, differences in attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioral control between SX and BC producers are identified that may contribute to their different adaptation choices. Multiple barriers to adaptation existed in both areas. Limited technical knowledge and doubts about adaptation effectiveness were more serious in BC, while limited support from local government and normative expectations were notable in SX. Education, targeted research, and public investments in irrigation and marketing may contribute to addressing some of these differences, improving the resilience of agricultural climate adaptation in both provinces.

Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies.

Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case-studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (a) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (b) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (c) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming, and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (d) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions.

LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously developed, updated and used in different research projects and as a learning and knowledge-sharing tool for students. The main objective of LandCaRe DSS is to provide information on the complex long-term impacts of climate change and on potential management options for adaptation by answering "what-if" type questions.

Extreme weather events and farmer adaptation in Zeeland, the Netherlands: A European climate change case study from the Rhine delta.

Global climate change is manifest by local-scale changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, including the frequency of extreme weather events (EWEs). EWEs are associated with a myriad range of adverse environmental and societal consequences, including negative impacts to agriculture and food production. This study focuses on EWEs and their effect on adaptation strategies by potato and onion farmers in Zeeland, a Dutch coastal province in the Rhine delta that can serve as a model for other intensive agricultural landscapes in industrialized nations impacted by extreme weather events. The research approach combines quantitative trend analysis of long-term climatic data (temperature, precipitation) with a formal survey of Zeelandic farmers to statistically test four specific hypotheses regarding the frequency of EWEs in the Netherlands and farmer awareness and adaptation. Trend analyses reveal a strong (statistically significant) increase in extreme heat, a small increase in extreme rainfall and drought, and a strong decrease in frost occurrence. Survey results indicate Zeelandic farmers perceive high risk and awareness of changes to the frequency of EWEs. Many farmers have experienced financial losses from EWEs, particularly between 2017 and 2020. For extreme heat, droughts, and frost, the proportion of farmers that incurred financial damages annually is statistically correlated to the actual occurrence of EWEs. Farmers who incurred more financial losses between 2000 and 2020 due to heat and lack of frost had a higher risk perception of these extremes. Further, almost all farmers have already implemented one or more adaptation strategies. A third of surveyed farmers reduced or stopped with potato and onion cultivation in response to climate change and EWEs. Awareness, exposure to, and risk perception of EWEs contribute to adaptation support by farmers. The high perceived risk of climate change and EWEs among respondents and the high incidence of financial losses from extremes in the past two decades highlights the importance of adaptation in the agricultural sector, including in temperate regions where growing seasons are expanding. Study results support the current 'Rural Development Program' and future 'National Strategic Plan' policies in the Netherlands, both part of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), that provides accessibility to adaptation measures for farmers to avoid financial loss.

Impacts of large-scale teleconnection indices on chill accumulation for specialty crops in California.

Although the impacts of teleconnection indices on climate metrics such as precipitation and temperature in California have been widely studied, less attention has been given to the impact on integrated climate indices such as chill accumulation. This study investigates the linkages between large-scale teleconnections and winter chill accumulation for specialty crops in California, which may enable more effective and dynamic adaptation to in-season climate variability. Three large-scale teleconnection indices were selected: Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index to assess their effects on chill accumulation. The Chill Hours Model and Dynamic Model are adopted to calculate chill accumulation in Chill Hours (CH) and Chill Portions (CP) from November to January. Three major crop-producing regions, including the Central Coast, Sacramento Valley, and San Joaquin Valley, are used as the focused regions. Our results suggest CP generally has a stronger response to teleconnection patterns than CH in California. The correlations between chill accumulation and teleconnections are generally weaker during the summer than other seasons, and significant correlation can be observed 2-10 months before the start of the chill accumulation period. Among the three teleconnection indices, ONI is most weakly correlated to chill accumulation in focused regions, while PDO shows the strongest positive correlation and explains up to 39% variability of CP. PNA presents the most widespread negative correlation with chill accumulation. When aggregated to different teleconnection modes, +3.6 above-average CP is expected during ONI positive mode; +2.3 above-average CP is expected during PDO positive mode, while +2.1 above-average CP is expected during PNA negative mode. This study provides insights on early-season chill prediction and feasible management and adaptation strategies, and the methodology presented here can be used to develop decision support tools of risk control for agricultural producers and policymakers.

The Potential of Payment for Ecosystem Services for Crop Wild Relative Conservation.

Crop wild relatives (CWR) have proven to be very valuable in agricultural breeding programs but remain a relatively under-utilized and under-protected resource. CWR have provided resistance to pests and diseases, abiotic stress tolerance, quality improvements and yield increases with the annual contribution of these traits to agriculture estimated at USD 115 billion globally and are considered to possess many valuable traits that have not yet been explored. The use of the genetic diversity found in CWR for breeding provides much-needed resilience to modern agricultural systems and has great potential to help sustainably increase agricultural production to feed a growing world population in the face of climate change and other stresses. A number of CWR taxa are at risk, however, necessitating coordinated local, national, regional and global efforts to preserve the genetic diversity of these plants through complementary in situ and ex situ conservation efforts. We discuss the absence of adequate institutional frameworks to incentivize CWR conservation services and propose payment for ecosystem services (PES) as an under-explored mechanism for financing these efforts. Such mechanisms could serve as a potentially powerful tool for enhancing the long-term protection of CWR.

Agricultural Adaptation to Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau.

The Tibetan plateau is one of the most sensitive areas in China and has been significantly affected by global warming. From 1961 to 2017, the annual air temperature increased by 0.32 °C/decade over the Tibetan Plateau, which is the highest in the whole of China. Furthermore, this is a trend that is projected to continue by 0.30 °C/decade from 2018 to 2050 due to global warming using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The increased temperature trend in recent decades has been highest in winter, which has been positive for the safe dormancy of winter wheat. In order to investigate agricultural adaptation to climate change in the Tibetan plateau, we used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) cropping systems model and weather data from the regional climate model RegCM4, to simulate winter wheat production in Guide county between 2018 and 2050. The simulated winter wheat potential yields amounted to 6698.3 kg/ha from 2018 to 2050, which showed the wheat yields would increase by 81%, if winter wheat was planted instead of spring wheat in the Tibetan Plateau with the correct amount of irrigation water. These results indicate that there are not only risks to crop yields from climate change, but also potential benefits. Global warming introduced the possibility to plant winter wheat instead of spring wheat over the Tibetan Plateau. These findings are very important for farmers and government agencies dealing with agricultural adaptation in a warmer climate.

Examining adaptations to water stress among farming households in Sri Lanka's dry zone.

Climate change is increasing water scarcity in Sri Lanka. Whether these changes will undermine national-level food security depends upon the ability of the small-scale farmers that dominate rice production and the institutions that support them to overcome the challenges presented by changing water availability. Analyzing household survey data, this research identifies household, institutional, and agroecological factors that influence how water-stressed farmers are working to adapt to changing conditions and how the strategies they employ impact rice yields. Paralleling studies conducted elsewhere, we identified institutional factors as particularly relevant in farmer adaptation decisions. Notably, our research identified farmers' use of hybrid seed varietals as the only local climate adaptation strategy to positively correlate with farmers' rice yields. These findings provide insight into additional factors pertinent to successful agricultural adaptation and offer encouraging evidence for policies that promote plant breeding and distribution in Sri Lanka as a means to buffer the food system to climate change-exacerbated drought.

Sustentabilidad y variabilidad climática: acciones agroecológicas participativas de adaptación y resiliencia socioecológica en la región alto-andina colombiana / Sustentability and climate variability: participatory agroecologycal actions to adaptation and socio-ecological reesilience in the colombian high- andean region

La variabilidad climática constituye en la actualidad uno de los principales factores de riesgo para la agricultura y la seguridad alimentaria mundial. Los ecosistemas más vulnerables en Colombia son los que se ubican en la zona alto-andina donde miles de familias campesinas se dedican a la agricultura en pequeña escala. Los programas enfocados a adaptar la agricultura a la variabilidad climática no se apoyan suficientemente en el conocimiento local ni motivan a las comunidades para la acción. Esta investigación propuso un análisis de la relación entre sustentabilidad y adaptación a la variabilidad climática, reconociendo de manera participativa los principales factores de riesgo para la sustentabilidad de la agricultura a partir de indicadores y analizando la efectividad de planes de mejora en la capacidad adaptativa de la agricultura alto-andina. Se desarrolló como un estudio de caso con 13 productores familiares vinculados a la Asociación Red Agroecológica Campesina de Subachoque, en 3 fases: a) creación de un marco de análisis sobre los principales factores de riesgo para la agricultura; b) evaluación de la sustentabilidad a partir de indicadores propios y c) implementación de planes para aumentar la capacidad adaptativa de la agricultura. La evaluación realizada en dos momentos diferentes demostró mejora en los 9 indicadores generados, de forma que la implementación de las acciones para mejorar la sustentabilidad influyeron positivamente sobre la capacidad de las fincas para adaptarse a los riesgos de la variabilidad climática. Las estrategias agroecológicas implementadas mejoraron la resiliencia socioecológica de los agroecosistemas manejados por agricultores familiares, aumentando la posibilidad de que respondan mejor ante cualquier escenario de cambio ambiental.

Climate variability constitutes actually one of the main risks to agriculture and food security in the world. The most vulnerable ecosystems in Colombia are located in the high region of the Andeans where thousands of families farming lives from agriculture in small scale. The programs aimed to adapt the agriculture to climate variability do not take into account the local knowledge; neither motivates communities to action. This research proposed an analysis of the relationship between sustainability and agricultural adaptation to climate variability in a participatory way, recognizing the main risk factors to agriculture sustainability using indicators and analyzing the effectiveness of improving plans to the agricultural adaptation capacity in the high-Andeans. It was developed as a study case with 13 farmers linked to the Agro-ecological Farming Net Association of Subachoque. 3 phases were developed: a) the creation of a framework regarding the main the risks factors to the agriculture; b) sustainability appraisal based on own indicators and c) implementation of plans to increase the agricultural adaptation capacity. The appraisal developed in 2 different moments showed improving in the 9 indicators suggesting that the implementation of actions to the sustainability of farming positively influenced on the farms capacity to face the risks of the climate variability. The agro-ecological strategies implemented, improving the socio-ecological resilience of agro-ecosystems managed by family farmers, increasing the possibility that they better responding to any scenario of environmental change.