Improved RNA stability estimation through Bayesian modeling reveals most Salmonella transcripts have subminute half-lives.

RNA decay is a crucial mechanism for regulating gene expression in response to environmental stresses. In bacteria, RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) are known to be involved in posttranscriptional regulation, but their global impact on RNA half-lives has not been extensively studied. To shed light on the role of the major RBPs ProQ and CspC/E in maintaining RNA stability, we performed RNA sequencing of Salmonella enterica over a time course following treatment with the transcription initiation inhibitor rifampicin (RIF-seq) in the presence and absence of these RBPs. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model that corrects for confounding factors in rifampicin RNA stability assays and enables us to identify differentially decaying transcripts transcriptome-wide. Our analysis revealed that the median RNA half-life in Salmonella in early stationary phase is less than 1 min, a third of previous estimates. We found that over half of the 500 most long-lived transcripts are bound by at least one major RBP, suggesting a general role for RBPs in shaping the transcriptome. Integrating differential stability estimates with cross-linking and immunoprecipitation followed by RNA sequencing (CLIP-seq) revealed that approximately 30% of transcripts with ProQ binding sites and more than 40% with CspC/E binding sites in coding or 3' untranslated regions decay differentially in the absence of the respective RBP. Analysis of differentially destabilized transcripts identified a role for ProQ in the oxidative stress response. Our findings provide insights into posttranscriptional regulation by ProQ and CspC/E, and the importance of RBPs in regulating gene expression.

Reconstruction of gene regulatory networks for Caenorhabditis elegans using tree-shaped gene expression data.

Constructing gene regulatory networks is a widely adopted approach for investigating gene regulation, offering diverse applications in biology and medicine. A great deal of research focuses on using time series data or single-cell RNA-sequencing data to infer gene regulatory networks. However, such gene expression data lack either cellular or temporal information. Fortunately, the advent of time-lapse confocal laser microscopy enables biologists to obtain tree-shaped gene expression data of Caenorhabditis elegans, achieving both cellular and temporal resolution. Although such tree-shaped data provide abundant knowledge, they pose challenges like non-pairwise time series, laying the inaccuracy of downstream analysis. To address this issue, a comprehensive framework for data integration and a novel Bayesian approach based on Boolean network with time delay are proposed. The pre-screening process and Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm are applied to obtain the parameter estimates. Simulation studies show that our method outperforms existing Boolean network inference algorithms. Leveraging the proposed approach, gene regulatory networks for five subtrees are reconstructed based on the real tree-shaped datatsets of Caenorhabditis elegans, where some gene regulatory relationships confirmed in previous genetic studies are recovered. Also, heterogeneity of regulatory relationships in different cell lineage subtrees is detected. Furthermore, the exploration of potential gene regulatory relationships that bear importance in human diseases is undertaken. All source code is available at the GitHub repository https://github.com/edawu11/BBTD.git.

Estimating conflict losses and reporting biases.

Determining the number of casualties and fatalities suffered in militarized conflicts is important for conflict measurement, forecasting, and accountability. However, given the nature of conflict, reliable statistics on casualties are rare. Countries or political actors involved in conflicts have incentives to hide or manipulate these numbers, while third parties might not have access to reliable information. For example, in the ongoing militarized conflict between Russia and Ukraine, estimates of the magnitude of losses vary wildly, sometimes across orders of magnitude. In this paper, we offer an approach for measuring casualties and fatalities given multiple reporting sources and, at the same time, accounting for the biases of those sources. We construct a dataset of 4,609 reports of military and civilian losses by both sides. We then develop a statistical model to better estimate losses for both sides given these reports. Our model accounts for different kinds of reporting biases, structural correlations between loss types, and integrates loss reports at different temporal scales. Our daily and cumulative estimates provide evidence that Russia has lost more personnel than has Ukraine and also likely suffers from a higher fatality to casualty ratio. We find that both sides likely overestimate the personnel losses suffered by their opponent and that Russian sources underestimate their own losses of personnel.

UNMF: a unified nonnegative matrix factorization for multi-dimensional omics data.

Factor analysis, ranging from principal component analysis to nonnegative matrix factorization, represents a foremost approach in analyzing multi-dimensional data to extract valuable patterns, and is increasingly being applied in the context of multi-dimensional omics datasets represented in tensor form. However, traditional analytical methods are heavily dependent on the format and structure of the data itself, and if these change even slightly, the analyst must change their data analysis strategy and techniques and spend a considerable amount of time on data preprocessing. Additionally, many traditional methods cannot be applied as-is in the presence of missing values in the data. We present a new statistical framework, unified nonnegative matrix factorization (UNMF), for finding informative patterns in messy biological data sets. UNMF is designed for tidy data format and structure, making data analysis easier and simplifying the development of data analysis tools. UNMF can handle a wide range of data structures and formats, and works seamlessly with tensor data including missing observations and repeated measurements. The usefulness of UNMF is demonstrated through its application to several multi-dimensional omics data, offering user-friendly and unified features for analysis and integration. Its application holds great potential for the life science community. UNMF is implemented with R and is available from GitHub (https://github.com/abikoushi/moltenNMF).

A health inequality analysis of childhood asthma prevalence in urban Australia.

BACKGROUND: Long-standing health inequalities in Australian society that were exposed by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic were described as "fault lines" in a recent call to action by a consortium of philanthropic organizations. With asthma a major contributor to childhood disease burden, studies of its spatial epidemiology can provide valuable insights into the emergence of health inequalities early in life. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to characterize the spatial variation of asthma prevalence among children living within Australia's 4 largest cities and quantify the relative contributions of climatic and environmental factors, outdoor air pollution, and socioeconomic status in determining this variation. METHODS: A Bayesian model with spatial smoothing was developed to regress ecologic health status data from the 2021 Australian Census against groups of explanatory covariates intended to represent mechanistic pathways. RESULTS: The prevalence of asthma in children aged 5 to 14 years averages 7.9%, 8.2%, 8.5%, and 7.6% in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth, respectively. This small inter-city variation contrasts against marked intracity variation at the small-area level, which ranges from 6% to 12% between the least and most affected locations in each. Statistical variance decomposition on a subsample of Australian-born, nonindigenous children attributes 66% of the intracity spatial variation to the assembled covariates. Of these covariates, climatic and environmental factors contribute 30%, outdoor air pollution contributes 19%, and areal socioeconomic status contributes the remaining 51%. CONCLUSION: Geographic health inequalities in the prevalence of childhood asthma within Australia's largest cities reflect a complex interplay of factors, among which socioeconomic status is a principal determinant.

Local functional connectivity abnormalities in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease: A meta-analytic investigation using minimum Bayes factor activation likelihood estimation.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging research employing regional homogeneity (ReHo) analysis has uncovered aberrant local brain connectivity in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) in comparison with healthy controls. However, the precise localization, extent, and possible overlap of these aberrations are still not fully understood. To bridge this gap, we applied a novel meta-analytic and Bayesian method (minimum Bayes Factor Activation Likelihood Estimation, mBF-ALE) for a systematic exploration of local functional connectivity alterations in MCI and AD brains. We extracted ReHo data via a standardized MEDLINE database search, which included 35 peer-reviewed experiments, 1,256 individuals with AD or MCI, 1,118 healthy controls, and 205 x-y-z coordinates of ReHo variation. We then separated the data into two distinct datasets: one for MCI and the other for AD. Two mBF-ALE analyses were conducted, thresholded at "very strong evidence" (mBF ≥ 150), with a minimum cluster size of 200 mm³. We also assessed the spatial consistency and sensitivity of our Bayesian results using the canonical version of the ALE algorithm. For MCI, we observed two clusters of ReHo decrease and one of ReHo increase. Decreased local connectivity was notable in the left precuneus (Brodmann area - BA 7) and left inferior temporal gyrus (BA 20), while increased connectivity was evident in the right parahippocampal gyrus (BA 36). The canonical ALE confirmed these locations, except for the inferior temporal gyrus. In AD, one cluster each of ReHo decrease and increase were found, with decreased connectivity in the right posterior cingulate cortex (BA 30 extending to BA 23) and increased connectivity in the left posterior cingulate cortex (BA 31). These locations were confirmed by the canonical ALE. The identification of these distinct functional connectivity patterns sheds new light on the complex pathophysiology of MCI and AD, offering promising directions for future neuroimaging-based interventions. Additionally, the use of a Bayesian framework for statistical thresholding enhances the robustness of neuroimaging meta-analyses, broadening its applicability to small datasets.

Historical controls in clinical trials: a note on linking Pocock's model with the robust mixture priors.

Several Bayesian methods have been proposed to borrow information dynamically from historical controls in clinical trials. In this note, we identify key features of the relationship between the first method proposed, the bias-variance method, which is strongly related to the commensurate prior approach, and a more recent and widely used approach called robust mixture priors (RMP). We focus on the two key terms that need to be chosen to define the RMP, namely $w$, the prior probability that the new trial differs systematically from the historical trial, and $s_v^2$, the variance of the vague component of the RMP. The relationship with Pocock's prior reveals that different combinations of these two terms can express similar prior beliefs about the amount of information provided by the historical data. This demonstrates the value of fixing $s_v^2$, e.g., so the vague component is "worth one subject." Prior belief about the relevance of the historical data is then driven by a single value, the prespecified weight $w$.

Mapping heterogeneity in family planning indicators in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Nigeria, 2000-2020.

BACKGROUND: Family planning is fundamental to women's reproductive health and is a basic human right. Global targets such as Sustainable Development Goal 3 (specifically, Target 3.7) have been established to promote universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services. Country-level estimates of contraceptive use and other family planning indicators are already available and are used for tracking progress towards these goals. However, there is likely heterogeneity in these indicators within countries, and more local estimates can provide crucial additional information about progress towards these goals in specific populations. In this analysis, we develop estimates of six family indicators at a local scale, and use these estimates to describe heterogeneity and spatial-temporal patterns in these indicators in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Nigeria. METHODS: We used a Bayesian geostatistical modelling framework to analyse geo-located data on contraceptive use and family planning from 61 household surveys in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Nigeria in order to generate subnational estimates of prevalence and associated uncertainty for six indicators from 2000 to 2020: contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), traditional contraceptive prevalence rate (tCPR), unmet need for modern methods of contraception, met need for family planning with modern methods, and intention to use contraception. For each country and indicator, we generated estimates at an approximately 5 × 5-km resolution and at the first and second administrative levels (regions and provinces in Burkina Faso; counties and sub-counties in Kenya; and states and local government areas in Nigeria). RESULTS: We found substantial variation among locations in Burkina Faso, Kenya, and Nigeria for each of the family planning indicators estimated. For example, estimated CPR in 2020 ranged from 13.2% (95% Uncertainty Interval, 8.0-20.0%) in Oudalan to 38.9% (30.1-48.6%) in Kadiogo among provinces in Burkina Faso; from 0.4% (0.0-1.9%) in Banissa to 76.3% (58.1-89.6%) in Makueni among sub-counties in Kenya; and from 0.9% (0.3-2.0%) in Yunusari to 31.8% (19.9-46.9%) in Somolu among local government areas in Nigeria. There were also considerable differences among locations in each country in the magnitude of change over time for any given indicator; however, in most cases, there was more consistency in the direction of that change: for example, CPR, mCPR, and met need for family planning with modern methods increased nationally in all three countries between 2000 and 2020, and similarly increased in all provinces of Burkina Faso, and in large majorities of sub-counties in Kenya and local government areas in Nigeria. CONCLUSIONS: Despite substantial increases in contraceptive use, too many women still have an unmet need for modern methods of contraception. Moreover, country-level estimates of family planning indicators obscure important differences among locations within the same country. The modelling approach described here enables estimating family planning indicators at a subnational level and could be readily adapted to estimate subnational trends in family planning indicators in other countries. These estimates provide a tool for better understanding local needs and informing continued efforts to ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive healthcare services.

BISC: accurate inference of transcriptional bursting kinetics from single-cell transcriptomic data.

Gene expression in mammalian cells is inherently stochastic and mRNAs are synthesized in discrete bursts. Single-cell transcriptomics provides an unprecedented opportunity to explore the transcriptome-wide kinetics of transcriptional bursting. However, current analysis methods provide limited accuracy in bursting inference due to substantial noise inherent to single-cell transcriptomic data. In this study, we developed BISC, a Bayesian method for inferring bursting parameters from single cell transcriptomic data. Based on a beta-gamma-Poisson model, BISC modeled the mean-variance dependency to achieve accurate estimation of bursting parameters from noisy data. Evaluation based on both simulation and real intron sequential RNA fluorescence in situ hybridization data showed improved accuracy and reliability of BISC over existing methods, especially for genes with low expression values. Further application of BISC found bursting frequency but not bursting size was strongly associated with gene expression regulation. Moreover, our analysis provided new mechanistic insights into the functional role of enhancer and superenhancer by modulating both bursting frequency and size. BISC also formulated a downstream framework to identify differential bursting (in frequency and size separately) genes in samples under different conditions. Applying to multiple datasets (a mouse embryonic cell and fibroblast dataset, a human immune cell dataset and a human pancreatic cell dataset), BISC identified known cell-type signature genes that were missed by differential expression analysis, providing additional insights in understanding the cell-specific stochastic gene transcription. Applying to datasets of human lung and colon cancers, BISC successfully detected tumor signature genes based on alterations in bursting kinetics, which illustrates its value in understanding disease development regarding transcriptional bursting. Collectively, BISC provides a new tool for accurately inferring bursting kinetics and detecting differential bursting genes. This study also produced new insights in the role of transcriptional bursting in regulating gene expression, cell identity and tumor progression.

The multivariate Bernoulli detector: change point estimation in discrete survival analysis.

Time-to-event data are often recorded on a discrete scale with multiple, competing risks as potential causes for the event. In this context, application of continuous survival analysis methods with a single risk suffers from biased estimation. Therefore, we propose the multivariate Bernoulli detector for competing risks with discrete times involving a multivariate change point model on the cause-specific baseline hazards. Through the prior on the number of change points and their location, we impose dependence between change points across risks, as well as allowing for data-driven learning of their number. Then, conditionally on these change points, a multivariate Bernoulli prior is used to infer which risks are involved. Focus of posterior inference is cause-specific hazard rates and dependence across risks. Such dependence is often present due to subject-specific changes across time that affect all risks. Full posterior inference is performed through a tailored local-global Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which exploits a data augmentation trick and MCMC updates from nonconjugate Bayesian nonparametric methods. We illustrate our model in simulations and on ICU data, comparing its performance with existing approaches.

Modelling animal social networks: New solutions and future directions.

Research Highlight: Ross, C. T., McElreath, R., & Redhead, D. (2023). Modelling animal network data in R using STRAND. Journal of Animal Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.14021. One of the most important insights in ecology over the past decade has been that the social connections among animals affect a wide range of ecological and evolutionary processes. However, despite over 20 years of study effort on this topic, generating knowledge from data on social associations and interactions remains fraught with problems. Redhead et al. present an R package-STRAND-that extends the current animal social network analysis toolbox in two ways. First, they provide a simple R interfaces to implement generative network models, which are an alternative to regression approaches that draw inference by simulating the data-generating process. Second, they implement these models in a Bayesian framework, allowing uncertainty in the observation process to be carried through to hypothesis testing. STRAND therefore fills an important gap for hypothesis testing using network data. However, major challenges remain, and while STRAND represents an important advance, generating robust results continues to require careful study design, considerations in terms of statistical methods and a plurality of approaches.

Long-term effects of widespread pharmaceutical pollution on trade-offs between behavioural, life-history and reproductive traits in fish.

In our rapidly changing world, understanding how species respond to shifting conditions is of paramount importance. Pharmaceutical pollutants are widespread in aquatic ecosystems globally, yet their impacts on animal behaviour, life-history and reproductive allocation remain poorly understood, especially in the context of intraspecific variation in ecologically important traits that facilitate species' adaptive capacities. We test whether a widespread pharmaceutical pollutant, fluoxetine (Prozac), disrupts the trade-off between individual-level (co)variation in behavioural, life-history and reproductive traits of freshwater fish. We exposed the progeny of wild-caught guppies (Poecilia reticulata) to three field-relevant levels of fluoxetine (mean measured concentrations: 0, 31.5 and 316 ng/L) for 5 years, across multiple generations. We used 12 independent laboratory populations and repeatedly quantified activity and risk-taking behaviour of male guppies, capturing both mean behaviours and variation within and between individuals across exposure treatments. We also measured key life-history traits (body condition, coloration and gonopodium size) and assessed post-copulatory sperm traits (sperm vitality, number and velocity) that are known to be under strong sexual selection in polyandrous species. Intraspecific (co)variation of these traits was analysed using a comprehensive, multivariate statistical approach. Fluoxetine had a dose-specific (mean) effect on the life-history and sperm trait of guppies: low pollutant exposure altered male body condition and increased gonopodium size, but reduced sperm velocity. At the individual level, fluoxetine reduced the behavioural plasticity of guppies by eroding their within-individual variation in both activity and risk-taking behaviour. Fluoxetine also altered between-individual correlations in pace-of-life syndrome traits: it triggered the emergence of correlations between behavioural and life-history traits (e.g. activity and body condition) and between life-history and sperm traits (e.g. gonopodium size and sperm vitality), but collapsed other between-individual correlations (e.g. activity and gonopodium size). Our results reveal that chronic exposure to global pollutants can affect phenotypic traits at both population and individual levels, and even alter individual-level correlations among such traits in a dose-specific manner. We discuss the need to integrate individual-level analyses and test behaviour in association with life-history and reproductive traits to fully understand how animals respond to human-induced environmental change.

Robust time selection for interim analysis in the Bayesian phase 2 exploratory clinical trial.

In phase 2 clinical trials, we expect to make a right Go or No-Go decision during the interim analysis (IA) and make this decision at the right time. The optimal time for IA is usually determined based on a utility function. In most previous research, utility functions aim to minimize the expected sample size or total cost in confirmatory trials. However, the selected time can vary depending on different alternative hypotheses. This paper proposes a new utility function for Bayesian phase 2 exploratory clinical trials. It evaluates the predictability and robustness of the Go and No-Go decision made during the IA. We can make a robust time selection for the IA based on the function regardless of the treatment effect assumptions.

Bayesian identification and estimation of radon-related increased hazard rates of cancer death in the updated French cohort of uranium miners (1946-2014).

OBJECTIVE: A recent update of the French cohort of uranium miners added seven years of follow-up data. We use these new data to look for new possible radon-related increased risks and refine the estimation of the potential association between cumulative radon exposure and four cancer sites: lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer and leukemia (excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia, which is not radiation-induced). METHODS: Several parametric survival models are proposed, fitted and compared under the Bayesian paradigm, to perform new and original exposure-risk analyses. In line with recent UNSCEAR recommendations, we consider time-related effect modifiers and exposure rate as potential effect modifying factors. We use Bayesian model selection criteria to identify radon-related increased hazard rates. RESULTS: Under the assumption of a linear exposure-risk relationship, we found a substantial evidence for a strictly positive effect of cumulative radon exposure on the hazard rate of death by lung cancer among French uranium miners. Given the current available data under the assumptions of a linear or log-linear exposure-risk relationship, it is not possible to conclude in favour of the absence or the existence of a strictly positive effect of chronic exposure to radon on the hazard rate of death by kidney cancer. Regarding death by brain and CNS cancer, there is a substantial evidence for the absence of radon-related effect. Finally, under the assumption of a log-linear exposure-risk relationship, a small positive radon-related effect appears when looking at the risk of death by leukemia (excluding CLL). CONCLUSION: This study investigates the existence of radon-related increased risk of death by lung cancer, kidney cancer, brain and CNS cancer and leukemia under a Bayesian framework and assumptions of linear and log-linear exposure-risk relationships. If there is no doubt in the interpretation of the results for lung cancer and brain and CNS cancer, the conclusion is less clear-cut in the case of kidney cancer and leukemia (excluding CLL). A future update of the French cohort, increasing the follow-up time for miners, may help to reach a clearer conclusion for these two cancer sites.

Formulation and resolutions of the red sky paradox.

Most stars in the Universe are red dwarfs. They outnumber stars like our Sun by a factor of 5 and outlive them by another factor of 20 (population-weighted mean). When combined with recent observations uncovering an abundance of temperate, rocky planets around these diminutive stars, we are faced with an apparent logical contradiction-Why do we not see a red dwarf in our sky? To address this "red sky paradox," we formulate a Bayesian probability function concerning the odds of finding oneself around an F/G/K-spectral type (Sun-like) star. If the development of intelligent life from prebiotic chemistry is a universally rapid and ensured process, the temporal advantage of red dwarfs dissolves, softening the red sky paradox, but exacerbating the classic Fermi paradox. Otherwise, we find that humanity appears to be a 1-in-100 outlier. While this could be random chance (resolution I), we outline three other nonmutually exclusive resolutions (II to IV) that broadly act as filters to attenuate the suitability of red dwarfs for complex life. Future observations may be able to provide support for some of these. Notably, if surveys reveal a paucity of temperate rocky planets around the smallest (and most numerous) red dwarfs, then this would support resolution II. As another example, if future characterization efforts were to find that red dwarf worlds have limited windows for complex life due to stellar evolution, this would support resolution III. Solving this paradox would reveal guidance for the targeting of future remote life sensing experiments and the limits of life in the cosmos.

Serial reproduction reveals the geometry of visuospatial representations.

An essential function of the human visual system is to locate objects in space and navigate the environment. Due to limited resources, the visual system achieves this by combining imperfect sensory information with a belief state about locations in a scene, resulting in systematic distortions and biases. These biases can be captured by a Bayesian model in which internal beliefs are expressed in a prior probability distribution over locations in a scene. We introduce a paradigm that enables us to measure these priors by iterating a simple memory task where the response of one participant becomes the stimulus for the next. This approach reveals an unprecedented richness and level of detail in these priors, suggesting a different way to think about biases in spatial memory. A prior distribution on locations in a visual scene can reflect the selective allocation of coding resources to different visual regions during encoding ("efficient encoding"). This selective allocation predicts that locations in the scene will be encoded with variable precision, in contrast to previous work that has assumed fixed encoding precision regardless of location. We demonstrate that perceptual biases covary with variations in discrimination accuracy, a finding that is aligned with simulations of our efficient encoding model but not the traditional fixed encoding view. This work demonstrates the promise of using nonparametric data-driven approaches that combine crowdsourcing with the careful curation of information transmission within social networks to reveal the hidden structure of shared visual representations.

Pseudogestational Sac Delaying Diagnosis of Ectopic Pregnancy: A Case Report.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy can be complicated by nonspecific laboratory and radiographic findings. The multiple alternative diagnoses must be weighed against each other based on the entire clinical presentation. CASE REPORT: We present a case of a 20-year-old woman who arrived to the Emergency Department (ED) with abdominal pain and ended up being transferred for an Obstetrics evaluation of a possible heterotopic pregnancy. Her radiology-performed ultrasound had revealed an "intrauterine gestational sac" along with an adnexal mass near the right ovary. The patient was not undergoing assisted-reproductive fertilization, nor did she have meaningful risk factors for heterotopic pregnancy. The patient was managed expectantly over the ensuing week to see whether the intrauterine fluid was a true gestational sac. After multiple repeat ED visits, the diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy was made. Ultimately, the patient elected for surgical management of her ectopic pregnancy. WHY SHOULD AN EMERGENCY PHYSICIAN BE AWARE OF THIS?: This case offers a reminder of the subtleties of radiographic identification of intrauterine pregnancies and the ever-present need to "clinically correlate."

Social cartography and satellite-derived building coverage for post-census population estimates in difficult-to-access regions of Colombia.

Effective government services rely on accurate population numbers to allocate resources. In Colombia and globally, census enumeration is challenging in remote regions and where armed conflict is occurring. During census preparations, the Colombian National Administrative Department of Statistics conducted social cartography workshops, where community representatives estimated numbers of dwellings and people throughout their regions. We repurposed this information, combining it with remotely sensed buildings data and other geospatial data. To estimate building counts and population sizes, we developed hierarchical Bayesian models, trained using nearby full-coverage census enumerations and assessed using 10-fold cross-validation. We compared models to assess the relative contributions of community knowledge, remotely sensed buildings, and their combination to model fit. The Community model was unbiased but imprecise; the Satellite model was more precise but biased; and the Combination model was best for overall accuracy. Results reaffirmed the power of remotely sensed buildings data for population estimation and highlighted the value of incorporating local knowledge.

Multilevel Latent Differential Structural Equation Model with Short Time Series and Time-Varying Covariates: A Comparison of Frequentist and Bayesian Estimators.

Continuous-time modeling using differential equations is a promising technique to model change processes with longitudinal data. Among ways to fit this model, the Latent Differential Structural Equation Modeling (LDSEM) approach defines latent derivative variables within a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework, thereby allowing researchers to leverage advantages of the SEM framework for model building, estimation, inference, and comparison purposes. Still, a few issues remain unresolved, including performance of multilevel variations of the LDSEM under short time lengths (e.g., 14 time points), particularly when coupled multivariate processes and time-varying covariates are involved. Additionally, the possibility of using Bayesian estimation to facilitate the estimation of multilevel LDSEM (M-LDSEM) models with complex and higher-dimensional random effect structures has not been investigated. We present a series of Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate three possible approaches to fitting M-LDSEM, including: frequentist single-level and two-level robust estimators and Bayesian two-level estimator. Our findings suggested that the Bayesian approach outperformed other frequentist approaches. The effects of time-varying covariates are well recovered, and coupling parameters are the least biased especially using higher-order derivative information with the Bayesian estimator. Finally, an empirical example is provided to show the applicability of the approach.

Go Multivariate: Recommendations on Bayesian Multilevel Hidden Markov Models with Categorical Data.

The multilevel hidden Markov model (MHMM) is a promising method to investigate intense longitudinal data obtained within the social and behavioral sciences. The MHMM quantifies information on the latent dynamics of behavior over time. In addition, heterogeneity between individuals is accommodated with the inclusion of individual-specific random effects, facilitating the study of individual differences in dynamics. However, the performance of the MHMM has not been sufficiently explored. We performed an extensive simulation to assess the effect of the number of dependent variables (1-8), number of individuals (5-90), and number of observations per individual (100-1600) on the estimation performance of a Bayesian MHMM with categorical data including various levels of state distinctiveness and separation. We found that using multivariate data generally alleviates the sample size needed and improves the stability of the results. Moreover, including variables only consisting of random noise was generally not detrimental to model performance. Regarding the estimation of group-level parameters, the number of individuals and observations largely compensate for each other. However, only the former drives the estimation of between-individual variability. We conclude with guidelines on the sample size necessary based on the level of state distinctiveness and separation and study objectives of the researcher.