Public perception of participation in low-risk clinical trials in critical care using waived consent: a Canadian national survey.

PURPOSE: The acceptability of waiver of consent for participation in clinical research in intensive care unit (ICU) settings is uncertain. We sought to survey the Canadian public to assess levels of support, comfort, and acceptability for waived consent for low-risk clinical trials. METHODS: We performed a prospective cross-sectional survey of the Canadian public aged 18 yr or older. The survey was conducted by Ipsos between 19 and 23 November 2020. The survey content was derived from a literature review and in consultation with a patient and family partnership committee. The survey focused on attitudes and beliefs on waived consent for participation in low-risk clinical trials in ICU settings. The survey contained 35 items focused on sociodemographics, general health status, participation in medical research, and levels of support and comfort with research and with waived consent. The survey used a case study of a low-risk clinical trial intervention in ICU patients. Analysis was descriptive. RESULTS: We included 2,000 participants, 38% of whom reported experience with ICU and 16% with medical research. Participation in medical research was more common among those with postsecondary education, those with chronic disease, and those who were employed in health care. Most (80%) would support a model of waived consent for low-risk clinical trials, citing medical benefits (36%) and low perceived risk (34%). Most (77%) were comfortable with personally participating in a low-risk clinical trial. Most (80%) believed waived consent approaches were acceptable. Half (52%) believed the waived consent process should provide information about the research and include the option of opting out. When asked whether participants should always give full informed consent, regardless of the practicality or level of risk, 74% and 72% agreed, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There is public support for models of waived consent for participation in low-risk pragmatic clinical trials in ICU settings in Canada; however, this is not universal. This information can inform and guide education, ethics, policy, and legal discussion on consent models.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: L'acceptabilité de la renonciation au consentement pour la participation à la recherche clinique à l'unité de soins intensifs (USI) est incertaine. Nous avons cherché à sonder la population canadienne afin d'évaluer les niveaux de soutien, de confort et d'acceptabilité de la renonciation au consentement pour les études cliniques à faible risque. MéTHODE: Nous avons réalisé un sondage transversal prospectif auprès de la population canadienne âgée de 18 ans et plus. Le sondage a été réalisé par Ipsos entre le 19 et le 23 novembre 2020. Le contenu du sondage a été élaboré à partir d'une revue de la littérature et en consultation avec un comité de partenariat composé de patient·es et de familles. Le sondage portait sur les attitudes et les croyances à l'égard de la renonciation au consentement pour participer à des études cliniques à faible risque dans les unités de soins intensifs. Le sondage comportait 35 questions axées sur les données sociodémographiques, l'état de santé général, la participation à la recherche médicale et les niveaux de soutien et de confort à l'égard de la recherche et de la renonciation au consentement. Le sondage s'est appuyé sur une étude de cas d'une intervention d'étude clinique à faible risque chez des patient·es des soins intensifs. L'analyse était descriptive. RéSULTATS: Nous avons inclus 2000 personnes, dont 38 % ont déclaré avoir eu des expériences en soins intensifs et 16 % en recherche médicale. La participation à la recherche médicale était plus fréquente chez les personnes ayant fait des études postsecondaires, celles atteintes de maladies chroniques et celles qui travaillaient dans le domaine des soins de santé. La plupart d'entre elles (80 %) appuieraient un modèle de renonciation au consentement pour les études cliniques à faible risque, citant les avantages médicaux (36 %) et le faible risque perçu (34 %). La majorité des personnes répondantes (77 %) étaient à l'aise à l'idée de participer personnellement à une étude clinique à faible risque. La plupart d'entre elles (80 %) croyaient que les approches fondées sur la renonciation au consentement étaient acceptables. La moitié (52 %) estimaient que le processus de renonciation au consentement devrait fournir des renseignements sur la recherche et inclure la possibilité de se retirer. Lorsqu'on leur a demandé si les participant·es devraient toujours donner un consentement éclairé complet, quel que soit l'aspect pratique ou le niveau de risque, 74 % et 72 % ont répondu par l'affirmative, respectivement. CONCLUSION: Il y a un appui public pour les modèles de renonciation au consentement quant à la participation à des études cliniques pragmatiques à faible risque dans les unités de soins intensifs au Canada; cet appui n'est toutefois pas universel. Ces renseignements peuvent éclairer et orienter l'éducation, l'éthique, les politiques et les discussions juridiques sur les modèles de consentement.

A quality improvement study on how a simulation model can help decision making on organization of ICU wards.

BACKGROUND: Intensive Care Unit (ICU) capacity management is essential to provide high-quality healthcare for critically ill patients. Yet, consensus on the most favorable ICU design is lacking, especially whether ICUs should deliver dedicated or non-dedicated care. The decision for dedicated or non-dedicated ICU design considers a trade-off in the degree of specialization for individual patient care and efficient use of resources for society. We aim to share insights of a model simulating capacity effects for different ICU designs. Upon request, this simulation model is available for other ICUs. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model was developed and used, to study the hypothetical performance of a large University Hospital ICU on occupancy, rejection, and rescheduling rates for a dedicated and non-dedicated ICU design in four different scenarios. These scenarios either simulate the base-case situation of the local ICU, varying bed capacity levels, potential effects of reduced length of stay for a dedicated design and unexpected increased inflow of unplanned patients. RESULTS: The simulation model provided insights to foresee effects of capacity choices that should be made. The non-dedicated ICU design outperformed the dedicated ICU design in terms of efficient use of scarce resources. CONCLUSIONS: The choice to use dedicated ICUs does not only affect the clinical outcome, but also rejection- rescheduling and occupancy rates. Our analysis of a large university hospital demonstrates how such a model can support decision making on ICU design, in conjunction with other operation characteristics such as staffing and quality management.

Exploring the safety reporting culture among healthcare practitioners in Saudi hospitals: a comprehensive 2022 national study.

BACKGROUND: With the rise in medical errors, establishing a strong safety culture and an effective incident reporting system is crucial. As part of the Saudi National Health Transformation Vision of 2030, multiple projects have been initiated to periodically assess healthcare quality measures and ensure a commitment to continuous improvement. Among these is the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture National Project (HSPSC), conducted regularly by the Saudi Patient Safety Center (SPSC). However, comprehensive tools for assessing reporting culture are lacking. Addressing this gap can enhance reporting, efficiency, and health safety. OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to investigate the reporting practices among healthcare professionals (HCPs) in Saudi Arabian hospitals and examine the relationship between reporting culture domains and other variables such as hospital bed capabilities and HCPs' work positions. METHODS: The study focuses on measuring the reporting culture-related items measures and employs secondary data analysis using information from the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture conducted by the Saudi Center for Patient Safety in 2022, encompassing hospitals throughout Saudi Arabia. Data incorporated seven items in total: four items related to the Response to Error Domain, two related to the Reporting Patient Safety Events Domain, and one associated with the number of events reported in the past 12 months. RESULTS: The sample for the analyzed data included 145,657 HCPs from 392 hospitals. The results showed that the average positive response rates for reporting culture-related items were between 50% and 70%. In addition, the research indicated that favorable response rates were relatively higher among managerial and quality/patient safety/risk management staff. In contrast, almost half had not reported any events in the preceding year, and a quarter reported only 1 or 2 events. Pearson correlation analysis demonstrates a strong negative correlation between bed capacity and reporting safety events, response to error, and number of events reported (r = -0.935, -0.920, and - 0.911, respectively; p < 0.05), while a strong positive correlation is observed between reporting safety events and response to error (r = 0.980; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Almost 75% of the HCPs reported fewer safety events over the last 12 months, indicating an unexpectedly minimal recorded occurrence variance ranging from 0 to 2 incidents.

[The population morbidity with diseases of ear and mastoid and accessibility of otorhinolaryngological care].

The article analyses level and dynamics of morbidity of diseases of ear and mastoid in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) in 2020-2021 and availability of otorhinolaryngological care. The methods of comparative statistics and mathematical analysis were applied to analyze official data provided by the Yakut Republic Medical Information and Analytical Center, the specialized Department of Otorhinolaryngology, the Republic Hospital № 2 - Center for Emergency Medical Care and the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia. The study established increasing trend of increasing morbidity of these diseases in both the adult and child population. In 2021, the growth rate of overall morbidity of adult population reached 17.7% and 8.8% in children, as compared to 2020. The primary morbidity of adults made up to 22.3%, in children - 15.7%. The comparative analysis demonstrated higher rates of general morbidity in the Republic: by 0.5% as compared with the Russian Federation and by 14.1% as compared with the Far Eastern Federal Okrug. The level of primary morbidity was lower than similar indicators of the compared territories by 17.1% and 3.0%, respectively. It is worth noting that analyzed morbidity of diseases of ear and mastoid reflects prevalence of ENT diseases in the region only indirectly, as the statistical data do not allow to estimate separately rate of upper respiratory tract lesions. Meanwhile, respiratory diseases rank first in the structure of population diseases in Yakutia. The growth of disability in children due to diseases of ear and mastoid requires attention. Among children of 0-17 years old, the indicator of primary disability increased from 0.38 to 0.8 per 10,000 of children population (increase of 110.5%); in children 0-3 years old - from 0.9 to 2.3 per 10,000 of the child population (an increase of 155.6%). The analysis of the number of beds in otorhinolaryngology wards established that that the bed capacity per 10,000 population was 0.6 that is significantly lower than the established standards. The article emphasizes need to adjust the Federal standards for hospital bed capacity, taking into account climatic and geographical conditions of the region, which contribute to spread and chronization of ENT diseases.

Management of the COVID-19 pandemic in Rhineland-Palatinate hospitals of all levels of care : Results of the COVID-19 Registry RLP.

The COVID-19 pandemic placed a significant burden on the German healthcare system. Based on the experience of severe disease progression of the SARS-CoV­2 infection from neighboring European countries in the early 2020s, with ICU overload and high mortality rates, efforts were made in Germany to increase the capacity of available ICU beds. Subsequently, all documentation and reporting focused on the ICU capacities for COVID-19 patients. It was hypothesized that mainly a few large hospitals provided care for the majority of COVID-19 patients. The COVID-19 Registry RLP of Rhineland-Palatinate documented SARS-CoV­2 inpatients from daily mandatory queries of all hospitals throughout the pandemic from April 2020 to March 2023, distinguishing between patients in ICUs and normal wards. In its 18th Corona Ordinance, the state government required all hospitals to participate in the care of SARS-CoV­2 inpatients. We investigated the participation of hospitals at different levels of care in Rhineland-Palatinate in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nine pandemic waves were documented during the pandemic and exemplary data on the respective pandemic peaks were evaluated. A distinction was made between the burden on hospitals at different levels of care: primary care hospitals, standard care hospitals, specialty hospitals, and maximal care hospitals. Analysis of the data showed that all hospital types participated equally in the care of SARS-CoV-2 patients. The requirement of the Ministry of Health of Rhineland-Palatinate to provide at least 20% of the available capacity was met by all levels of care and there were no disparities between hospitals of different levels of care in the management of the pandemic.Hospitals at all levels of care participated equally in the care of SARS-CoV­2 inpatients and thus contributed significantly to the management of the pandemic in Rhineland-Palatinate.

Discharge to post-acute care and other predictors of prolonged length of stay during the initial COVID-19 surge: a single site analysis.

BACKGROUND: During the initial surge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), health-care utilization fluctuated dramatically, straining acute hospital capacity across the USA and potentially contributing to excess mortality. METHODS: This was an observational retrospective study of patients with COVID-19 admitted to a large US urban academic medical center during a 12-week COVID-19 surge in the Spring of 2020. We describe patterns in length of stay (LOS) over time. Our outcome of interest was prolonged LOS (PLOS), which we defined as 7 or more days. We performed univariate analyses of patient characteristics, clinical outcomes and discharge disposition to evaluate the association of each variable with PLOS and developed a final multivariate model via backward elimination, wherein all variables with a P-value above 0.05 were eliminated in a stepwise fashion. RESULTS: The cohort included 1366 patients, of whom 13% died and 29% were readmitted within 30 days. The LOS (mean: 12.6) fell over time (P < 0.0001). Predictors of PLOS included discharge to a post-acute care (PAC) facility (odds ratio [OR]: 11.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6-54.0), uninsured status (OR 3.2, CI 1.1-9.1) and requiring intensive care and intubation (OR 18.4, CI 11.5-29.6). Patients had a higher readmission rate if discharged to PAC facilities (40%) or home with home health agency (HHA) services (38%) as compared to patients discharged home without HHA services (26%) (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during a US COVID-19 surge had a PLOS and high readmission rate. Lack of insurance, an intensive care unit stay and a decision to discharge to a PAC facility were associated with a PLOS. Efforts to decrease LOS and optimize hospital capacity during COVID-19 surges may benefit from focusing on increasing PAC and HHA capacity and resources.

Hospital Development of a Hybrid Emergency Department-Inpatient Care Observation Unit.

INTRODUCTION: This project aimed to design and implement an emergency department-managed observation unit that improves inpatient bed and emergency department stretcher capacity, decreases observation patient length of stay, earns high patient satisfaction scores, and generates a positive fiscal impact on the organization. METHODS: This quality improvement project followed a 1-group, pre- and postprogram implementation design. RESULTS: In the first year of operations, 40% of the total observation patients treated in this hospital were managed in the new observation unit. Emergency department observation unit length of stay across all patient complaints was half of the average length of stay for observation patients located on hospital inpatient units. In most cases, the emergency department observation unit was in the top 25 percentile of hospital Press Ganey inpatient satisfaction categories. The hospital estimates a contribution margin of three-quarters of a million dollars in the first year. DISCUSSION: This effective and efficient hybrid observation unit possessed specific aspects of inpatient and emergency department patient care models. Placing providers and nurses at the workstation for faster communication expedited care. Prioritizing all observation patient testing, transportation, phlebotomy, and intravenous (IV) services shortened disposition times. Emergency nurses transitioning to the observation unit were challenged to acquire inpatient care knowledge. Observation unit management struggled to maintain staffing while under an inpatient productivity model managed by the inpatient house supervisor. Reducing patient disposition time required clear communication between observation unit and inpatient staffing managers, between physician consultants and advanced practice nursing providers, and among nurses, patients, and providers. Observation units are 1 solution to decrease observation patient length of stay and improve emergency department capacity.

[ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF DAY HOSPITALS IN MOSCOW IN 2017-2022].

The article presents performance indicators of the capital day hospitals for the period from 2017 to 2022. The analysis has identified a high demand for this type of medical services in Moscow. A separate analysis focused on indicators of day hospitals subordinate to the Moscow Healthcare Department deployed at outpatient (polyclinic) medical facilities, as well as institutions providing inpatient care. The bed capacity structure and number of treated diseases by pediatric and adult population have been analyzed in detail. The study has identified main trends in dynamics in a number of indicators characterizing the development of hospital-replacing forms of care delivery in Moscow in recent years. The study is based on of the Federal statistical observation form # 14 - DS «Information on day hospital performance in medical organizations¼.

A study of the evacuation and allocation of hospital beds during the Covid-19 epidemic: a case study in Iran.

BACKGROUND: Shortage of resources, such as hospital beds, needed for health care especially in times of crisis can be a serious challenge for many countries. Currently, there is no suitable model for optimal allocation of beds in different hospital wards. The Data Envelopment Analysis method (DEA) has been used in the present study to examine the evacuation and allocation of hospital beds during the covid-19 pandemic in order to contribute to effective planning for fighting the spread the covid-19 virus. METHODS: The present study was conducted in two stages in hospitals affiliated with Urmia University of Medical Sciences (UUMS) in 2021. First, the number of excess beds was determined by calculating the technical efficiency using the DEA method and Deap2.1 software. To reallocate excess beds to covid-19 patients, the types of hospital wards were considered. As a result of this analysis, the inefficient hospitals with excess beds in different wards, which could be used for covid-19 patients with more serious symptoms, were identified. RESULTS: The results of the study show that the average technical efficiency of the studied hospitals was 0.603. These hospitals did not operate efficiently in 2021 and their current output can be produced with less than 61% of the used input. Also, the potential of these hospitals, over a period of 1 year, for the evacuation of beds and reallocation of them to covid-19 patients was calculated to be 1781 beds, 450 of which belonged to general wards and 1331 belonged to specialized wards. CONCLUSIONS: The DEA method can be used in the allocation of resources in hospitals. Depending on the type of hospital wards and the health condition of patients, this method can help policy-makers identify hospitals with the best potential but less emergency services for the purpose of reallocation of resources, which can help reduce the severe effects of crises on health resources.

The Role of Remdesivir in South Africa: Preventing COVID-19 Deaths Through Increasing Intensive Care Unit Capacity.

Countries such as South Africa have limited intensive care unit (ICU) capacity to handle the expected number of patients with COVID-19 requiring ICU care. Remdesivir can prevent deaths in countries such as South Africa by decreasing the number of days people spend in ICU, therefore freeing up ICU bed capacity.

A Closer Look Into Global Hospital Beds Capacity and Resource Shortages During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, there is a question of whether hospitals have adequate resources to manage patients. We aim to investigate global hospital bed (HB), acute care bed (ACB), and intensive care unit (ICU) bed capacity and determine any correlation between these hospital resources and COVID-19 mortality. METHOD: Cross-sectional study utilizing data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and other official organizations regarding global HB, ACB, ICU bed capacity, and confirmed COVID-19 cases/mortality. Descriptive statistics and linear regression were performed. RESULTS: A total of 183 countries were included with a mean of 307.1 HBs, 413.9 ACBs, and 8.73 ICU beds/100,000 population. High-income regions had the highest mean number of ICU beds (12.79) and HBs (402.32) per 100,000 population whereas upper middle-income regions had the highest mean number of ACBs (424.75) per 100,000. A weakly positive significant association was discovered between the number of ICU beds/100,000 population and COVID-19 mortality. No significant associations exist between the number of HBs or ACBs per 100,000 population and COVID-19 mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Global COVID-19 mortality rates are likely affected by multiple factors, including hospital resources, personnel, and bed capacity. Higher income regions of the world have greater ICU, acute care, and hospital bed capacities. Mandatory reporting of ICU, acute care, and hospital bed capacity/occupancy and information relating to coronavirus should be implemented. Adopting a tiered critical care approach and targeting the expansion of space, staff, and supplies may serve to maximize the quality of care during resurgences and future disasters.

From intensive care to step-down units: Managing patients throughput in response to COVID-19.

QUALITY PROBLEM OR ISSUE: The on-going COVID-19 pandemic may cause the collapse of healthcare systems because of unprecedented hospitalization rates. INITIAL ASSESSMENT: A total of 8.2 individuals per 1000 inhabitants have been diagnosed with COVID-19 in our province. The hospital predisposed 110 beds for COVID-19 patients: on the day of the local peak, 90% of them were occupied and intensive care unit (ICU) faced unprecedented admission rates, fearing system collapse. CHOICE OF SOLUTION: Instead of increasing the number of ICU beds, the creation of a step-down unit (SDU) close to the ICU was preferred: the aim was to safely improve the transfer of patients and to relieve ICU from the risk of overload. IMPLEMENTATION: A nine-bed SDU was created next to the ICU, led by intensivists and ICU nurses, with adequate personal protective equipment, monitoring systems and ventilators for respiratory support when needed. A second six-bed SDU was also created. EVALUATION: Patients were clinically comparable to those of most reports from Western Countries now available in the literature. ICU never needed supernumerary beds, no patient died in the SDU, and there was no waiting time for ICU admission of critical patients. SDU has been affordable from human resources, safety and economic points of view. LESSONS LEARNED: COVID-19 is like an enduring mass casualty incident. Solutions tailored on local epidemiology and available resources should be implemented to preserve the efficiency and adaptability of our institutions and provide the adequate sanitary response.

Dental practice closure during the first wave of COVID-19 and associated professional, practice and structural determinants: a multi-country survey.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in China has influenced every aspect of life worldwide. Given the unique characteristics of the dental setting, the risk of cross-infection between dental practitioners and patients is high in the absence of adequate protective measures, and dentists may develop severe anxiety in relation to the current pandemic. The limited provision of services and widespread closure of dental practices have raised concerns among dental professionals about the financial impact. The present study assessed the frequency of dental practice closure during the pandemic's first wave in several countries and whether closures and their associated factors differ between the private and non-private sectors. METHODS: An electronic cross-sectional survey questionnaire was sent to dentists in several countries, from April to May 2020. The survey assessed professional, practice related and country-level structural factors elucidating the reason for practice closure. Multilevel logistic regression was used to assess the association between practice closure and these factors, and differences were evaluated by sector type. RESULTS: Dentists from 29 countries (n = 3243) participated in this study. Most of the participants (75.9%) reported practice closure with significantly higher percentage in the private sector than the non-private sector. Greater pandemic-related fears were associated with a significantly higher likelihood of practice closure in the private (odds ratio [OR] = 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24, 1.92) and non-private (OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.04, 1.82) sectors. Dentists in non-private rural areas (OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.42, 0.81), and those in hospitals (overall OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.36, 0.99) reported a low likelihood of closure. A high likelihood of closure was reported by dentists in the academia (OR = 2.13, 95% CI 1.23, 3.71). More hospital beds at the country-level were associated with a lower likelihood of closure in the non-private sector (OR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.46, 0.91). Private- sector dentists in high- income countries (HICs) reported fewer closures than those in non-HICs (OR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.15, 1.93). CONCLUSIONS: Most dentists reported practice closure because of COVID-19, and greater impacts were reported in the private sector than in the non-private sector. Closure was associated with professional, practice, and country-levels factors.

Impact of COVID-19 on acute isolation bed capacity and nursing workforce requirements: A retrospective review.

AIM: To understand the impact of COVID-19 on isolation bed capacity requirements, nursing workforce requirements and nurse:patient ratios. BACKGROUND: COVID-19 created an increased demand for isolation beds and nursing workforce globally. METHODS: This was a retrospective review of bed capacity, bed occupancy and nursing workforce data from the isolation units of a tertiary hospital in Singapore from 23 January 2020 to 31 May 2020. R v4.0.1 and Tidyverse 1.3.0 library were used for data cleaning and plotly 4.9.2.1 library for data visualization. RESULTS: In January to March 2020, isolation bed capacity was low (=<203 beds). A sharp increase in bed capacity was seen from 195 to 487 beds during 25 March to 29 April 2020, after which it plateaued. Bed occupancy remained lower than bed capacity throughout January to May 2020. After 16 April 2020, we experienced a shortage of 1.1 to 70.2 nurses in isolation wards. Due to low occupancy rates, nurse:patient ratio remained acceptable (minimum nurse:patient ratio = 0.26). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 caused drastic changes in isolation bed capacity and nursing workforce requirements. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT: Building a model to predict nursing workforce requirements during pandemic surges may be helpful for planning and adequate staffing.

[The methodology of calculation of indices of provision of population with beds of palliative medical care].

The enhancement of organization of palliative medical care to increase life quality of terminally ill patients is one of directions of development of health care system. To elaborate measures of improving accessibility and quality of palliative medical care, it is necessary to apply single unified methodology of calculating indices and criteria. One of them is provision of bed capacity. The purpose of the study is to elaborate methodology of calculating control indices of provision population with beds to render palliative medical care. The indices are calculated on the basis of statistical processing of monitoring corresponding data in the subjects of the Russian Federation.

Effects of Cocooning on Coronavirus Disease Rates after Relaxing Social Distancing.

As coronavirus disease spreads throughout the United States, policymakers are contemplating reinstatement and relaxation of shelter-in-place orders. By using a model capturing high-risk populations and transmission rates estimated from hospitalization data, we found that postponing relaxation will only delay future disease waves. Cocooning vulnerable populations can prevent overwhelming medical surges.

Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Coronavirus Disease Healthcare Demand, Central Texas, USA.

Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. To estimate the impact of the timing and intensity of such measures, we built a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates age-stratified risks and contact patterns and projects numbers of hospitalizations, patients in intensive care units, ventilator needs, and deaths within US cities. Focusing on the Austin metropolitan area of Texas, we found that immediate and extensive social distancing measures were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases did not exceed local hospital capacity by early May 2020. School closures alone hardly changed the epidemic curve. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks and cause a bed shortage in intensive care units. This analysis informed the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by Austin on March 24, 2020.

Patterns of Hospital Bypass and Interhospital Transfer Among Patients With Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: We describe how patient characteristics influence hospital bypass, interhospital transfer, and in-hospital mortality in patients with heart failure in Washington. Rural patients with heart failure may bypass their nearest hospital or be transferred for appropriate therapies. The frequency, determinants, and outcomes of these practices remain uncharacterized. METHODS AND RESULTS: Mean excess travel times based on hospital and patient residence ZIP codes were calculated using published methods. Hospitals and servicing areas were coded based on bed size and ZIP code, respectively. Transfer patterns were analyzed using bootstrap inference for clusters. Analysis of mortality and transfer-associated factors was performed using logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. There were 48,163 patients, representing 1106 instances of transfer, studied. The mean excess travel time increased 7.14 minutes per decrease in population density (metropolitan, micropolitan, small town, rural; P < .0001). The rural mean excess travel time was greatest at 28.56 minutes. Transfer likelihood increased with younger age, male gender, admitting hospital rurality, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, and stroke. Transfer was less likely among women (odds ratio [OR], 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.94) and patients over 70 years old (OR, 0.15-0.46; 95% CI, 0.10-0.65). Adjusting for comorbidities and transfer propensity, transfer exhibited a stronger association with mortality than any other measured patient risk factor (OR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.69-2.73), excluding stroke (OR, 7.09; 95% CI, 4.99-10.06). CONCLUSIONS: Rural hospital bypass is prevalent among patients with heart failure, although its clinical significance is unclear. Female and older patients were found to have a lesser likelihood of transfer adjusted for other factors. Interhospital transfer is associated with increased mortality when adjusted for comorbidities.

Multi-objective admission planning problem: a two-stage stochastic approach.

Effective admission planning can improve inpatient throughput and waiting times, resulting in better quality of service. The uncertainty in the patient arrival and the availability of resources makes the patient's allocation difficult to manage. Thus, in the admission process hospitals aim to accomplish targets of resource utilization and to lower the cost of service. Both objectives are related and in conflict. In this paper, we present a bi-objective stochastic optimization model to study the trade-off between the resource utilization and the cost of service, taking into account demand and capacity uncertainties. Real data from the surgery and medical areas of a Chilean public hospital are used to illustrate the approach. The results show that the solutions of our approach outperform the actual practice in the Chilean hospital.

The Distributions of Weekday Discharge Times at Acute Care Hospitals in the State of Florida were Static from 2010 to 2018.

When hospital capacity is near census, either due to limits on the number of physical or staffed beds, delays in patients' discharge can result in domino effects of congestion for the emergency department, the intensive care units, the postanesthesia care unit, and the operating room. Hospital administrators often promote increasing the percentage of patients discharged before noon as mitigation. However, benchmark data from multiple hospitals are lacking. We studied the time of weekday inpatient discharges from all 202 acute care hospitals in the state of Florida between 2010 and 2018 using publicly available data. Statewide, the average length of stay (4.63 days) did not change, but hospital discharges increased 6.1%. There was no change over years in the percentage of patients discharged before 12 noon (13.0% ± 0.28% standard error [SE]) or before 3 PM (42.2% ± 0.25% SE). For every year, the median hour of patient discharge was 3 PM. Only 9 of the 202 hospitals (4.5%) reliably achieved a morning weekday discharge rate ≥ 20.0%. Only 19 hospitals (9.4%) in the state reliably achieved a ≥ 50.0% weekday discharge rate before 3 PM. Hospital administrators seeking to achieve earlier patient discharges can use our provided data as realistic benchmarks to guide efforts. Alternatively, administrators could plan based on a model that beds will not be reliably available for new patients until late in the afternoon and apply other well-developed operational strategies to address bottlenecks affecting the internal transfer of patients within the hospital.