Retrospective Analysis of Cholera/Acute Watery Diarrhea Outbreaks in Ethiopia From 2001 To 2023: Incidence, Case Fatality Rate, and Seasonal and Multiyear Epidemic Patterns.

BACKGROUND: The Ethiopian government has developed the multisectoral cholera elimination plan (NCP) with an aim of reducing cholera incidence and case fatality rate (CFR). To better understand and monitor the progress of this plan, a comprehensive review of national cholera epidemiology is needed. METHODS: Reported data on cholera/acute watery diarrhea (AWD) cases in the past 20 years were extracted from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute and World Health Organization databases. Descriptive statistics, Pearson χ2, and logistic regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: From January 2001 to November 2023, a total of 215 205 cholera/AWD cases, 2355 deaths with a cumulative CFR of 1.10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.092-1.095), and a mean annual incidence rate of 8.9/100 000 (95% CI, 6.5-11.3) were reported. Two major upsurges of cholera epidemics were found in the last two decades with mean attack rate (AR) of 20.57/100 000 in 2006-2010 and 14.83/100 000 in 2016-2020. Another resurgence of outbreaks occured in 2021-2023 (mean AR, 8.63/100 000). In 2015-2023, 54.0% (53 990/99 945) of cases were aged 15-44 years. National cholera CFR (3.13% [95% CI: 2.1-4.5]) was the highest in 2022. The 2015-2023 cumulative cholera CFR was different across regions: Benishangul Gumuz (6.07%), Gambela (1.89%), Sidama (1.42%), Southern Nation, Nationalities, and Peoples' (1.34%), Oromia (1.10%), and Amhara (1.09%). Cholera/AWD patients in older adults (≥45 years), severe dehydration, peak rainy season (June-August), and outpatients were associated with higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: Cholera has been a public health problem in Ethiopia with case fatalities still above the global target. Case management needs to be improved particularly in outpatients and older populations. Outbreak preparedness should be rolled out well in advance of the typical rainy seasons. Significant investments are essential to advance the cholera surveillance system at healthcare setting and community level. Underlying factors of cholera deaths per areas should be further investigated to guide appropriate interventions to meet the NCP target by 2028.

Country-specific determinants for COVID-19 case fatality rate and response strategies from a global perspective: an interpretable machine learning framework.

BACKGROUND: There are significant geographic inequities in COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs), and comprehensive understanding its country-level determinants in a global perspective is necessary. This study aims to quantify the country-specific risk of COVID-19 CFR and propose tailored response strategies, including vaccination strategies, in 156 countries. METHODS: Cross-temporal and cross-country variations in COVID-19 CFR was identified using extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) including 35 factors from seven dimensions in 156 countries from 28 January, 2020 to 31 January, 2022. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to further clarify the clustering of countries by the key factors driving CFR and the effect of concurrent risk factors for each country. Increases in vaccination rates was simulated to illustrate the reduction of CFR in different classes of countries. FINDINGS: Overall COVID-19 CFRs varied across countries from 28 Jan 2020 to 31 Jan 31 2022, ranging from 68 to 6373 per 100,000 population. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the determinants of CFRs first changed from health conditions to universal health coverage, and then to a multifactorial mixed effect dominated by vaccination. In the Omicron period, countries were divided into five classes according to risk determinants. Low vaccination-driven class (70 countries) mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and include the majority of low-income countries (95.7%) with many concurrent risk factors. Aging-driven class (26 countries) mainly distributed in high-income European countries. High disease burden-driven class (32 countries) mainly distributed in Asia and North America. Low GDP-driven class (14 countries) are scattered across continents. Simulating a 5% increase in vaccination rate resulted in CFR reductions of 31.2% and 15.0% for the low vaccination-driven class and the high disease burden-driven class, respectively, with greater CFR reductions for countries with high overall risk (SHAP value > 0.1), but only 3.1% for the ageing-driven class. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence from this study suggests that geographic inequities in COVID-19 CFR is jointly determined by key and concurrent risks, and achieving a decreasing COVID-19 CFR requires more than increasing vaccination coverage, but rather targeted intervention strategies based on country-specific risks.

Changes in the intrinsic severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 according to the emerging variant: a nationwide study from February 2020 to June 2022, including comparison with vaccinated populations.

BACKGROUND: As the population acquires immunity through vaccination and natural infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), understanding the intrinsic severity of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is becoming challenging. We aimed to evaluate the intrinsic severity regarding circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2 and to compare this between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. METHODS: With unvaccinated and initially infected confirmed cases of COVID-19, we estimated the case severity rate (CSR); case fatality rate (CFR); and mortality rate (MR), including severe/critical cases and deaths, stratified by age and compared by vaccination status according to the period regarding the variants of COVID-19 and vaccination. The overall rate was directly standardized with age. RESULTS: The age-standardized CSRs (aCSRs) of the unvaccinated group were 2.12%, 5.51%, and 0.94% in the pre-delta, delta, and omicron period, respectively, and the age-standardized CFRs (aCFRs) were 0.60%, 2.49%, and 0.63% in each period, respectively. The complete vaccination group had lower severity than the unvaccinated group over the entire period showing under 1% for the aCSR and 0.5% for the aCFR. The age-standardized MR of the unvaccinated group was 448 per million people per month people in the omicron period, which was 11 times higher than that of the vaccinated group. In terms of age groups, the CSR and CFR sharply increased with age from the 60 s and showed lower risk reduction in the 80 s when the period changed to the omicron period. CONCLUSIONS: The intrinsic severity of COVID-19 was the highest in the delta period, with over 5% for the aCSR, whereas the completely vaccinated group maintained below 1%. This implies that when the population is vaccinated, the impact of COVID-19 will be limited, even if a new mutation appears. Moreover, considering the decreasing intrinsic severity, the response to COVID-19 should prioritize older individuals at a higher risk of severe disease.

COVID-19 pandemic in Taiz Governorate, Yemen, between 2020 and 2023.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is highly contagious and causes a series of health problems, particularly in Yemen, which has a fragile healthcare system and cannot handle public health emergencies. AIMS: This analysis aimed to determine the epidemiological status of COVID-19 in the Taiz governorate between April 2020 and December 2023. METHODS: A retrospective study based on surveillance data from the Taiz governorate was used. The required data were gathered from the Ministry of Health and Population in Aden and analyzed using SPSS. RESULTS: Out of 5826 suspected of COVID-19 cases, 1933 (33.18%) cases were positive for COVID-19 infection. The high rates of COVID-19 cases were reported at 35.40% in males, 37.80% in people aged 35-44 years, 47.20% in 2020, 72.73% in Dhubab district, and 27.78% in March 2021. The overall incidence rate of cases was reported at 6.2 per 10,000 people in Taiz governorate (8.85 in males and 3.80 in females). In addition, the high incidence rate of COVID-19 was observed among age groups ≥ 65 years, in 2021, and in Al-Mukha districts. In total, the rate of fatality cases was 14.12%, the higher rate of fatality cases was 15.46% among males and 32.23% among individuals aged ≥ 65 years, and 26.97% in 2020. CONCLUSION: In this finding, the incidence rate of COVID-19 is high. It is necessary to increase the public's awareness of the transmission and prevention methods of COVID-19, as well as implement appropriate strategies to protect populations from infectious diseases.

The spatial-temporal variations and influencing factors of COVID-19 case fatality rate: a worldwide study in 30 countries from February 2021 to May 2022.

To evaluate the variations in COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) across different regions and waves, and the impact of public health interventions, social and economic characteristics, and demographic factors on COVID-19 CFRs, we collected data from 30 countries with the highest incidence rate in three waves. We summarized the CFRs of different countries and continents in each wave through meta-analysis. Spearman's correlation and multiple linear regression were employed to estimate the correlation between influencing factors and reduction rates of CFRs. Significant differences in CFRs were observed among different regions during the three waves (P < 0.001). An association was found between the changes in fully vaccinated rates (r s  = 0.41), population density (r s  = 0.43), the proportion of individuals over 65 years old (r s  = 0.43), and the reduction rates of case fatality rate. Compared to Wave 1, the reduction rates in Wave 2 were associated with population density (ß = 0.19, 95%CI: 0.05-0.33) and smoking rates (ß = -4.66, 95%CI: -8.98 - -0.33), while in Wave 3 it was associated with booster vaccine rates (ß = 0.60, 95%CI: 0.11-1.09) and hospital beds per thousand people (ß = 4.15, 95%CI: 1.41-6.89). These findings suggest that the COVID-19 CFRs varied across different countries and waves, and promoting booster vaccinations, increasing hospital bed capacity, and implementing tobacco control measures can help reduce CFRs.

Sociopolitical context and COVID-19 fatality rates in OECD countries: a configurational approach.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of crisis response can be influenced by various structural, cultural, and functional aspects within a social system. This study uses a configurational approach to identify combinations of sociopolitical conditions that lead to a high case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in OECD countries. METHODS: A Fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is conducted on a sample of 38 OECD countries. The outcome to be explained is high COVID-19 CFR. The five potentially causal conditions are level of democracy, state capacity, trust in government, health expenditure per capita, and the median age of population. A comprehensive QCA robustness test protocol is applied, which includes sensitivity ranges, fit-oriented robustness, and case-oriented robustness tests. RESULTS: None of the causal conditions in both the presence and negation form were found to be necessary for high or low levels of COVID-19 CFR. Two different combinations of sociopolitical conditions were usually sufficient for the occurrence of a high CFR of COVID-19 in OECD countries. Low state capacity and low trust in government are part of both recipes. The entire solution formula covers 84 percent of the outcome.  Some countries have been identified as contradictory cases. The explanations for their COVID-19 CFR require more in-depth case studies. CONCLUSIONS: From a governance perspective, the weakness of government in effectively implementing policies, and the citizens' lack of confidence in their government, combined with other structural conditions, serve as barriers to mounting an effective response to COVID-19. These findings can support the idea that the effects of social determinants of COVID-19 outcomes are interconnected and reinforcing.

Prevalence and associated risk factors for noma in Nigerian children: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence, case-fatality rate, and associated risk-factors of Noma in children in Nigeria. METHODS: Search was conducted in PubMed, Google Scholar, and Cochrane Library databases. Data were extraction using a double-blind approach. Discrepancies were resolved by a third reviewer. Heterogeneity was evaluated using I2 statistics. Random-effects model was used for the meta-analysis and subgroup analysis was conducted. The study quality was evaluated using standard Critical-Appraisal-Checklist. RESULTS: Of the 1652 articles identified, 12 studies that met the inclusion criteria included 871 cases of Noma. Two studies had high-risk of bias and were excluded in the meta-analysis. Pooled prevalence of Noma was 2.95% (95%CI:2.19-3.71; Z = 7.60; p < 0.00001, I2:100.0). Case fatality was reported in one study. Sex-distribution had a male-to-female ratio of 1.1:1. Malnutrition (88.42%, 95%CI:52.84-124.00; I2:100.0), measles (40.60%; 95% CI:31.56-49.65; I2:100.0) and malaria (30.75%; 95% CI:30.06-31.45; I2:100.0) were the most notable associated risk-factors. Prevalence of Noma was non-significantly lower in southern (1.96%,95%CI:1.49-2.44;6 studies) than in northern (4.43%; 95%CI:-0.98-9.83; 4 studies) Nigeria. One study reported the prevalence of Noma in children younger than 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: About every 3 in 100 children in Nigeria had Noma and the prevalence was non-significantly higher in northern than southern Nigeria. Malnutrition, measles, and malaria were major associated risk-factors. Case-fatality rate and prevalence based on different age-groups were inconclusive.

[Characteristics and courses of COVID-19 in patients from the first through fifth waves of the disease: Focused on a single public health center in Tokyo, Japan].

Objective　Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) became a global public health threat, and local public health centers in Japan implemented an infectious disease response to support patients. The response was subsequently modified to meet the needs for each of the five waves of infection. The study aim was to analyze the characteristics and courses of the disease in patients with COVID-19 at a single public health center. The study period included the first through fifth waves of the disease.Methods　We utilized a descriptive epidemiological design in this study and data of patients with COVID-19 from one administrative district in Tokyo, Japan. We analyzed age, gender, nationality, symptoms at diagnosis, the route of infection, the recovery environment, and associated morbidity intervals, including case fatality rate, days from symptom onset to diagnosis, days from diagnosis to hospitalization, and recovery time for each of the first through fifth waves.Results　From February 2020 to November 2021, 11,252 patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. Specifically, in the first wave, 151 patients were diagnosed, followed by 803 in the second wave, 2,406 in the third wave, 1,480 in the fourth wave, and 6,412 in the fifth wave. Hospitalization was the primary recovery environment during the first wave, while home recovery became the primary approach from the third wave onward. The case fatality rate was highest during the first wave, likely because of limited testing and treatment options for severe cases. The median time from onset to diagnosis was seven days in the first wave, significantly longer than for the other waves. The median time from diagnosis to hospitalization was one day in the first through fourth waves but three days in the fifth wave. The extension of this interval suggests that hospitalization was delayed in this wave as the number of severe patients increased rapidly, likely because of the novel COVID-19 variant.Conclusion　This study of patients testing positive for COVID-19 provides valuable insights into the characteristics and courses of the pandemic within this district. These findings can inform regarding the development of effective strategies to manage the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and other future emerging infectious diseases.

The case fatality rate of COVID-19 during the Delta and the Omicron epidemic phase: A meta-analysis.

As coronavirus variants are constantly occurring, we tried to understand more about the omicron and delta variants that have hit the world. We provided dynamic information on the case fatality rate (CFR) of the Omicron variant over time and to compare it with that of the Delta variant through meta-analysis. Twenty-four countries were selected by submission counts, submission dates, and confirmed cases. We defined the Delta or the Omicron epidemic period for individual countries as when each variant is over 90%. We further analyzed the Omicron period by dividing it into the initial plateau, increasing, and decreasing phases according to the number of newly confirmed daily cases. Finally, the meta-analysis examined the summary and between-study heterogeneity. The CFR of COVID-19 during the Omicron epidemic was lower than that during the Delta epidemic (odds ratio [OR]: 0.252, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.205-0.309). The CFR of COVID-19 during the initial plateau phase of Omicron was higher than during other phases. (OR: 1.962, 95% CI 1.607-2.397). The CFR of COVID-19 during the increasing phase was lower than during the decreasing phases (OR: 0.412, 95% CI 0.342-0.498). The Omicron variant had lower CFR compared to the Delta variant, and the initial plateau phase had higher CFR compared to the noninitial phases. These results can help establish global health policies for COVID-19 in the future.

Differences in incidence and fatality of COVID-19 by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant versus Delta variant in relation to vaccine coverage: A world-wide review.

We aim to evaluate the evolution differences in the incidence and case fatality rate (CFR) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta and Omicron variants. The average incidence and CFRs were described between different countries. A gamma generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to compare the CFRs of Delta and Omicron variants based on vaccination coverage. Totally, 50 countries were included for analyses. The incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ranged from 0.16/100,000 to 82.95/100,000 during the Delta period and 0.03/100,000 to 440.88/100,000 during the Omicron period. The median CFRs were 8.56 (interquartile range [IQR]: 4.76-18.39) during the Delta period and 3.04 (IQR: 1.87-7.48) during the Omicron period, respectively. A total of 47 out of 50 countries showed decreased CFRs of the Omicron variant with the rate ratio ranging from 0.02 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.01-0.03) (in Cambodia) to 0.97 (95% CI: 0.87-1.08) (in Ireland). Gamma GLMM analysis showed that the decreased CFR was largely a result of the decreased pathogenicity of Omicron besides the increased vaccination coverage. The Omicron variant shows a higher incidence but a lower CFR around the world as a whole, which is mainly a result of the decreased pathogenicity by SARS-CoV-2's mutation, while the vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 still acts as a valuable measure in preventing people from death.

Sex differences in incidence and fatality of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: A comparative study based on national surveillance data of China.

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a tick-borne emerging infectious disease with an increasingly global concern. Sex difference in infectious diseases is an important public health problem. A comparative study on sex differences in SFTS incidence and fatality was conducted using all laboratory-confirmed cases in mainland China during 2010-2018. Females had significantly higher average annual incidence rate (AAIR) with a risk ratio (RR) of 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.22; p ˂ 0.0001), but significantly lower-case fatality rate (CFR) with an odd ratio of 0.73 (95% CI 0.61-0.87; p = 0.001). The significant differences in AAIR and CFR were observed in age groups of 40-69 and 60-69 years, respectively (both p < 0.05). There was a rising incidence and declining CFR along with epidemic years. After adjusting for age, temporal and spatial distribution, agricultural setting and onset-to-diagnosis interval, the female-to-male difference in either AAIR or CFR remained significant. The underlying biological mechanisms of the sex-based differences that the females are more prone to get the disease, but less likely for a fatal outcome deserve further investigations.

Decreased Emergency Cholecystectomy and Case Fatality Rate, Not Explained by Expansion of Medicaid.

INTRODUCTION: Population data on longitudinal trends for cholecystectomies and their outcomes are scarce. We evaluated the incidence and case fatality rate of emergency and ambulatory cholecystectomies in New Jersey (NJ) and whether the Medicaid expansion changed trends. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective population cohort design was used to study the incidence of cholecystectomies and their case fatality rate from 2009 to 2018. Using linear and logistic regression we explored the trends of incidence and the odds of case fatality after versus before the January 1, 2014 Medicaid expansion. RESULTS: Overall, 93,423 emergency cholecystectomies were performed, with 644 fatalities; 87,239 ambulatory cholecystectomies were performed, with fewer than 10 fatalities. The 2009 to 2018 annual incidence of emergency cholecystectomies dropped markedly from 114.8 to 77.5 per 100,000 NJ population (P < 0.0001); ambulatory cholecystectomies increased from 93.5 to 95.6 per 100,000 (P = 0.053). The incidence of emergency cholecystectomies dropped more after than before Medicaid expansion (P < 0.0001). The odds ratio for case fatality among those undergoing emergency cholecystectomies after versus before expansion was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.72-0.99). This decrease in case fatality, apparent only in those over age 65, was not explained by the addition of Medicaid. CONCLUSIONS: A marked decrease in the incidence of emergency cholecystectomies occurred after Medicaid expansion, which was not accounted for by a minimal increase in the incidence of ambulatory cholecystectomies. Case fatality from emergency cholecystectomy decreased over time due to factors other than Medicaid. Further work is needed to reconcile these findings with the previously reported lack of decrease in overall gallstone disease mortality in NJ.

Clinical burden of invasive Escherichia coli disease among older adult patients treated in hospitals in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Invasive extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli disease (IED) can lead to severe outcomes, particularly among older adults. However, the clinical burden of IED in the U.S. has not been well characterized. METHODS: IED encounters among patients ≥ 60 years old were identified using the PINC AI™ Healthcare Database (10/01/2015-03/31/2020) by either a positive E. coli culture in blood or another normally sterile body site and ≥ 1 sign of systemic inflammatory response syndrome or signs of sepsis, or a positive E. coli culture in urine with urinary tract infection and signs of sepsis. Medical resource utilization, clinical outcomes, and E. coli isolate characteristics were descriptively reported during the first IED encounter and during the following year (observation period). RESULTS: Overall, 19,773 patients with IED were included (mean age: 76.8 years; 67.4% female; 78.5% with signs of sepsis). Most encounters involved community-onset IED (94.3%) and required hospitalization (96.5%; mean duration: 6.9 days), with 32.4% of patients being admitted to the intensive care unit (mean duration: 3.7 days). Most E. coli isolates were resistant to ≥ 1 antibiotic category (61.7%) and 34.4% were resistant to ≥ 3 antibiotic categories. Following their first IED encounter, 34.8% of patients were transferred to a skilled nursing/intermediate care facility, whereas 6.8% had died. During the observation period, 36.8% of patients were rehospitalized, 2.4% had IED recurrence, and in-hospital death increased to 10.9%. CONCLUSIONS: IED is associated with substantial clinical burden at first encounter with considerable long-term consequences. Findings demonstrate the need for increased IED awareness and highlight potential benefits of prevention.

Data-driven case fatality rate estimation for the primary lineage of SARS-CoV-2 in Poland.

After more than one and a half year since the COVID-19 pandemics outbreak the scientific world is constantly trying to understand its dynamics. In this paper of the case fatality rates (CFR) for COVID-19 we study the historic data regarding mortality in Poland during the first six months of pandemic, when no SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern were present among infected. To this end, we apply competing risk models to perform both uni- and multivariate analyses on specific subpopulations selected by different factors including the key indicators: age, sex, hospitalization. The study explores the case fatality rate to find out its decreasing trend in time. Furthermore, we describe the differences in mortality among hospitalized and other cases indicating a sudden increase of mortality among hospitalized cases at the end of the 2020 spring season. Exploratory and multivariate analysis revealed the real impact of each variable and besides the expected factors indicating increased mortality (age, comorbidities) we track more non-obvious indicators. Recent medical care as well as the identification of the source contact, independently of the comorbidities, significantly impact an individual mortality risk. As a result, the study provides a twofold insight into the COVID-19 mortality in Poland. On one hand we explore mortality in different groups with respect to different variables, on the other we indicate novel factors that may be crucial in reducing mortality. The later can be coped, e.g. by more efficient contact tracing and proper organization and management of the health care system to accompany those who need medical care independently of comorbidities or COVID-19 infection.

The role of universal health coverage and global health security nexus and interplay on SARS-CoV-2 infection and case-fatality rates in Africa : a structural equation modeling approach.

BACKGROUND: The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 infections remains a significant health challenge worldwide. There is paucity of evidence on the influence of the universal health coverage (UHC) and global health security (GHS) nexus on SARS-CoV-2 infection risk and outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the effects of UHC and GHS nexus and interplay on SARS-CoV-2 infection rate and case-fatality rates (CFR) in Africa. METHODS: The study employed descriptive methods to analyze the data drawn from multiple sources as well used structural equation modeling (SEM) with maximum likelihood estimation to model and assess the relationships between independent and dependent variables by performing path analysis. RESULTS: In Africa, 100% and 18% of the effects of GHS on SARS-CoV-2 infection and RT-PCR CFR, respectively were direct. Increased SARS-CoV-2 CFR was associated with median age of the national population (ß = -0.1244, [95% CI: -0.24, -0.01], P = 0.031 ); COVID-19 infection rate (ß = -0.370, [95% CI: -0.66, -0.08], P = 0.012 ); and prevalence of obesity among adults aged 18 + years (ß = 0.128, [95% CI: 0.06,0.20], P = 0.0001) were statistically significant. SARS-CoV-2 infection rates were strongly linked to median age of the national population (ß = 0.118, [95% CI: 0.02,0.22 ], P = 0.024); population density per square kilometer, (ß = -0.003, [95% CI: -0.0058, -0.00059], P = 0.016 ) and UHC for service coverage index (ß = 0.089, [95% CI: 0.04,0.14, P = 0.001 ) in which their relationship was statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The study shade a light that UHC for service coverage, and median age of the national population, population density have significant effect on COVID-19 infection rate while COVID-19 infection rate, median age of the national population and prevalence of obesity among adults aged 18 + years were associated with COVID-19 case-fatality rate. Both, UHC and GHS do not emerge to protect against COVID-19-related case fatality rate.

High variability of COVID-19 case fatality rate in Germany.

BACKGROUND: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic a high case fatality rate (CFR) was noticed worldwide including also Germany where the first European cases have been observed. The WHO recommended immediate intubation for patients with dyspnoea which has since been revised after reviewing the initial clinical outcome. The objective of this study is to analyze CFR and assess if there is an advantage of a more conservative management of COVID-19 induced hypoxemia. METHODS: PCR confirmed COVID-19 infections and death counts were obtained for all German districts from 27 Jan 2020 until 15 Feb 2021 using official reports of Robert Koch Institute Berlin, Germany. A moving average CFRt was constructed by dividing disease related deaths two weeks after a given index day by the number of infections two weeks prior to that date. In addition to a local comparison also mortality outcomes in other German speaking countries were compared. RESULTS: The mean CFR is estimated to be 2.92% based on 71.965 fatalities and 2.465.407 cases. There was a large regional scattering of CFRs across the German districts. Differences of the mortality pattern were observed also at state level and preserved across different sex and age groups while being largely independent of case numbers. Although Munich city had higher infection rates, more patients died during the first wave in Hamburg (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.3-1.9) which was mirrored also by higher death risk at Hamburg intensive care units (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3-3.1). While the majority of Munich hospitals favoured a conservative management of hypoxemia including high flow nasal cannula (HFNC), Hamburg hospitals followed a more aggressive scheme of early mechanical ventilation (MV). Austria and Switzerland experienced higher CFRs than Germany during the first wave but after changing their treatment guidelines, both countries experienced lower CFRs during the second wave. CONCLUSION: Using retrospective public health data, different case fatality rates have been observed across Germany. A more conservative management of COVID-19 induced Adult Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is justified also by epidemiological data.

Prevalence and epidemiological trends in mortality due to COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia.

OBJECTIVES: This article describes the prevalence and epidemiological trends of COVID-19 mortality in the largest registry in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). STUDY DESIGN: A prospective epidemiological cohort study using data from all healthcare facilities in KSA collected between March 23, 2020, and April 30, 2022. Data on the number of daily deaths directly related to COVID-19 were gathered, analyzed, and reported. METHOD: Data analysis was carried out using national and regional crude case fatality rate and death per 100,000 population. Descriptive statistics using numbers and proportions were used to describe age, gender, nationality, and comorbidities. The mortality trend was plotted and compared with international figures. In addition, the most common comorbidities associated with mortality and the proportion of patients who received COVID-19 vaccine were reported. RESULTS: The total reported number of deaths between March 23, 2020, and April 30, 2022, was 9085. Crude case fatality rate was 1.21%, and death per 100,000 population was 25.38, which compared favorably to figures reported by several developed countries. The highest percentages of deaths were among individuals aged between 60 and 69 years, males (71%), and individuals with diabetes (60%). Only 2.8% of mortalities occur in patients who received COVID-19 vaccine. Diabetes, hypertension, and heart failure had the highest attributable risk of mortality among patients who died due to COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Case fatality rate and death per 100,000 population in KSA are among the lowest in the world due to multiple factors. Several comorbidities have been identified, namely, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and cardiac arrhythmias.

Case Fatality Rate and Severity of COVID-19 among Patients with Sickle Cell Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

The sickle cell disease (SCD) population has been considered particularly vulnerable to viral pandemics since the emergence of H1N1 in 2009. In this sense, the advance of the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 has brought this group of patients to the center of concern. However, scientific knowledge about the susceptibility of patients with SCD to a severe COVID-19 pandemic is still insufficient, and efforts to establish a general profile of the disease in these patients, remain inadequate. The present study, therefore, sought to characterize the case fatality rate and severity of COVID-19 in patients with SCD throughout the world. A systematic review of Pubmed/MEDLINE, Scopus, Cochrane Library, and Virtual Health Library databases through December 2021 was then performed. Subsequently, the primary and secondary outcomes were used in the meta-analysis in RStudio® software. Seventy-two studies were included with 6,011 SCD patients confirmed to have SARS-CoV-2 infection between mid-2020 and early 2022. The mean age of patients was 27 years. During this period, 218 deaths caused by COVID-19 were reported in the studied population, corresponding to an overall case fatality rate of 3%. In addition, 10% of patients with SCD were admitted to the ICU after complications caused by COVID-19, and 4% of them required invasive ventilatory support. In conclusion, the high fatality rate, intensive care unit admission and need for mechanical ventilation due to COVID-19 in young patients with SCD indicate that this population is at high risk for severe disease progression.

Incidence and case-fatality rate of stroke in General Villegas, Buenos Aires, Argentina. The EstEPA population study.

OBJECTIVES: Stroke epidemiology varies among different populations. The burden of stroke is high in low- and middle-income countries. Reliable population data is needed to assess the impact of stroke and to develop policies aimed to improve stroke care in our region. EstEPA is a population-based project assessing prevalence, incidence, mortality and burden of stroke in General Villegas Department, Buenos Aires, Argentina (pop=30,864 inhabitants). We determined incidence of stroke (first-ever and recurrent stroke) and stroke case-fatality rate from 2017 to 2020. METHODS: First-ever strokes, recurrent strokes and transient ischemic attacks were ascertained and case-fatality rate was obtained. Diagnoses were based on standard AHA/WHO definitions. Study population included all persons residing in General Villegas during the three-year period. Hospitals, households, nursing homes, death certificates and several overlapping sources were surveyed. RESULTS: We assessed 92,592 person-years. There were 155 cerebrovascular events aged 70 years (SD ± 13 years), of which 115 were first-ever strokes (74%), 21 recurrent strokes (13.5%) and 19 transient ischemic attacks (12.5%). The crude overall incidence rate of first-ever strokes was 124.2 per 100,000 population (86.9 per 100,000 [95% CI 58.5-115.2] when standardized by WHO World population and 109.7 per 100,000 [95% CI 89.7-129.8] when standardized by Argentine population) and 317.0 per 100,000 population in subjects older than 40 years. Case fatality rate at 30 days of first-ever strokes was 27%. CONCLUSION: In this population-based comprehensive stroke epidemiological study in Argentina, first-ever stroke incidence in an urban population was 124.2 per 100,000 population (86.9 per 100,000 adjusted by the WHO World population). This is lower than the incidence in other countries in the region and similar to a recent incidence study in Argentina. It is also comparable to reported incidence in most middle- and high-income countries. Stroke case-fatality rate was comparable to other population-based Latin-American studies.

Screening and identification of potential MERS-CoV papain-like protease (PLpro) inhibitors; Steady-state kinetic and Molecular dynamic studies.

MERS-CoV belongs to the coronavirus group. Recent years have seen a rash of coronavirus epidemics. In June 2012, MERS-CoV was discovered in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, with 2,591 MERSA cases confirmed by lab tests by the end of August 2022 and 894 deaths at a case-fatality ratio (CFR) of 34.5% documented worldwide. Saudi Arabia reported the majority of these cases, with 2,184 cases and 813 deaths (CFR: 37.2%), necessitating a thorough understanding of the molecular machinery of MERS-CoV. To develop antiviral medicines, illustrative investigation of the protein in coronavirus subunits are required to increase our understanding of the subject. In this study, recombinant expression and purification of MERS-CoV (PLpro), a primary goal for the development of 22 new inhibitors, were completed using a high throughput screening methodology that employed fragment-based libraries in conjunction with structure-based virtual screening. Compounds 2, 7, and 20, showed significant biological activity. Moreover, a docking analysis revealed that the three compounds had favorable binding mood and binding free energy. Molecular dynamic simulation demonstrated the stability of compound 2 (2-((Benzimidazol-2-yl) thio)-1-arylethan-1-ones) the strongest inhibitory activity against the PLpro enzyme. In addition, disubstitutions at the meta and para locations are the only substitutions that may boost the inhibitory action against PLpro. Compound 2 was chosen as a MERS-CoV PLpro inhibitor after passing absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion studies; however, further investigations are required.