Does club convergence matter in health outcomes? Evidence from Indian states.

BACKGROUND: Population health is vital to a nation's overall well-being and development. To achieve sustainable human development, a reduction in health inequalities and an increase in interstate convergence in health indicators is necessary. Evaluation of the convergence patterns can aid the government in monitoring the health progress across the Indian states. This study investigates the progressive changes in the convergence and divergence patterns in health status across major states of India from 1990 to 2018. METHODS: Sigma plots (σ), kernel density plots, and log t-test methods are used to test the convergence, divergence, and club convergence patterns in the health indicators at the state level. RESULTS: The result of the sigma convergence suggests that life expectancy at birth has converged across all states. After 2006, however, the infant mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate, and total fertility rate experienced a divergence pattern. The study's findings indicate that life expectancy at birth converges in the same direction across all states, falling into the same club (Club One). However, considerable cross-state variations and evidence of clubs' convergence and divergence are observed in the domains of infant mortality rate, neonatal death rate, and total fertility rate. As suggested by the kernel density estimates, life expectancy at birth stratifies, polarizes, and becomes unimodal over time, although with a single stable state. A bimodal distribution was found for infant, neonatal, and total fertility rates. CONCLUSIONS: Therefore, healthcare strategies must consider each club's transition path while focusing on divergence states to reduce health variations and improve health outcomes for each group of individuals.

Energy productivity and GHG emission in the european agriculture: The club convergence approach.

The agricultural production plays an important role in food provision and income generation for the rural population. To mitigate the climate change and ensure food security, the agricultural sector has faced multiple initiatives, including the European Green Deal. Developing effective frameworks for measures under such initiatives requires identifying reasonable benchmarks. Accordingly, it is important to assess the patterns of input use and productivity in the agricultural sector. This paper focuses on the agricultural energy productivity in the European Union (EU) Member States during 2005-2019. Indeed, the EU allocates substantial support to improve resource efficiency and reduce climate pressures in the agriculture. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to apply the club convergence approach for the energy productivity the EU agriculture. This particular approach allows identifying the homogenous groups of the EU countries and, subsequently, assess the dynamics of the agricultural energy productivity within these groups. The results indicate that the agricultural energy productivity still requires attention in the EU countries, as only partial convergence was observed during 2015-2019. The EU countries were grouped into five clusters with different levels of the agricultural energy productivity. The results imply that the differences among resulting clusters remained rather stable over time. Therefore, relevant policies addressing energy efficiency issues can be developed for these relatively homogeneous groups to ensure further cohesion. The results suggest that countries with high energy productivity may show high levels of greenhouse gas intensity (and low levels of, e.g., labour productivity). Therefore, energy conservation and introduction of clean energy is a complex task that can be guided by the proposed framework and adjustment in the Common Agricultural Policy measures.

Exploring the convergence patterns of PM2.5 in Chinese cities.

Economic development and ongoing urbanization are usually accompanied by severe haze pollution. Revealing the spatial and temporal evolution of haze pollution can provide a powerful tool for formulating sustainable development policies. Previous studies mostly discuss the differences in the level of PM2.5 among regions, but have paid little attention to the change rules of such differences and their clustering patterns over long periods. Therefore, from the perspective of club convergence, this study employs the log t regression test and club clustering algorithm proposed by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771-1855, 2007. 10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00811.x) to empirically examine the convergence characteristics of PM2.5 concentrations in Chinese cities from 1998 to 2016. This study found that there was no evidence of full panel convergence, but supported one divergent group and eleven convergence clubs with large differences in mean PM2.5 concentrations and growth rates. The geographical distribution of these clubs showed significant spatial dependence. In addition, certain meteorological and socio-economic factors predominantly determined the convergence club for each city.

Carbon emissions convergence and determinant analysis: Evidence from ASEAN countries.

In this study, we aim to uncover the convergence pattern of carbon emissions and its determinants towards effective reduction policies. In particular, we contribute to the emissions convergence literature by examining convergence in CO2 emissions for a sample of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states, spanning the period from 1960 to 2018. We adopt the log (t) club convergence approach and examine convergence patterns in total CO2 emissions as well as emissions disaggregated by sources. We focus on emissions emerging from coal, oil, natural gas and cement production. The findings from the full sample analysis reveal two sub-convergent clubs that reflect population size, geography, and energy demand. The disaggregated analysis by sources show that the sources of emissions significantly influence convergence behaviour across the ASEAN countries investigated. We find that the transition paths of emissions are more pronounced for oil, gas and cement production with a large number of non-converging states. To ascertain the reason behind this result, we examine the determinants of the convergence process. We detect that urbanization plays a vital role in the convergence path of carbon emissions and calls for urgent efforts to decarbonize urbanization-related infrastructure processes.

How can open public data promote efficient and equitable green production? Evidence from eco-efficiency in China.

Nowadays, concurrent attention to economic development and ecological issues is becoming an important trend. In this paper, we measure the eco-efficiency of 285 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2019 using a non-radial directional distance function and the data envelopment analysis method, based on which we analyze the club convergence of cities' eco-efficiency using the logt test; we estimate the impact of open public data platforms on eco-efficiency and its convergence using a multi-period difference in difference model and panel-ordered logit model, respectively. We find that, first, open public data platforms improve cities' eco-efficiency by about 6.5%, and the impact mechanisms include scale efficiency, technical efficiency, and total factor productivity, or, at the micro level, increasing the economic agglomeration degree, boosting the amount of foreign investment used, and increasing green innovation level. Second, there are three convergence clubs of eco-efficiency in China's cities, whose average eco-efficiency trends are above, close to, and below average, respectively. Third, public data platforms significantly increase the probability of cities belonging to the convergence clubs of high and medium eco-efficiency (Clubs 1 and 2) and decrease the probability of belonging to the low one (Club 3). However, the mechanisms only include technical efficiency and total factor productivity, or the amount of foreign investment used and the green innovation level at the micro level.

Revisiting the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis with globalization for OECD countries: the role of convergence clubs.

This paper aims to investigate the role of globalization in ecological footprint for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries during the 1981-2015 period with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework. To do so, unlike the existing literature, we follow a different path. Firstly, we test the environmental convergence (EC) hypothesis using the Phillips and Sul, Econometrica 75(6): 1771-1855, (2007) methodology. Then, we examine the impact of globalization and energy consumption on the ecological footprint (EF), and test the existence of the EKC hypothesis using the dynamic ordinary least squares mean group (DOLSMG) estimator. The convergence test results indicate that OECD countries do not converge to the same steady-state levels with regard to EF levels. However, we identify two convergence clubs that converging to a different steady-state equilibrium. The results of DOLSMG reveal that the EKC hypothesis is valid for both convergence groups. Furthermore, the impact of energy consumption and globalization on EF is higher for club 2, which includes developing countries.

Has the COVID-19 pandemic converged across countries?

The outbreak of COVID-19 has induced economic and financial disruptions to global economies, consistent with those experienced during previous episodes of economic or financial crises. This study offers a critical perspective into the spread of the virus by investigating the convergence patterns of COVID-19 across 155 countries from March 2020 to August 2021. The club clustering algorithm is used to verify the convergence patterns of infection and death rates in these countries. The findings show that full panel convergence cannot be achieved indicating the presence of sub-convergent clusters. Cluster formation for death rates includes the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, among others. To understand the factors driving these results, we analyse the determinants of the convergence process of COVID-19. The probability of belonging to a cluster with higher death intensity increases with being above the age of 65, poverty, and for female smokers while handwashing shows beneficial effect on case intensity.

Impact of the Spanish smoke-free laws on cigarette sales by brands, 2000-2021: Evidence from a club convergence approach.

INTRODUCTION: In January 2006, the Spanish government enacted a tobacco control law that banned the advertising, promotion and sponsorship of tobacco. In January 2011, further legislation on this matter was adopted to provide a more restrictive specification of the ban. In this study, we analyze the effect produced on cigarette sales by these two prohibitions. We address this problem using a cluster time-series analysis to test whether the sales of cigarettes by brands have been homogenized with the prohibition of advertising, promotion, and sponsorship. METHODS: The data source used was the official data on legal sales of cigarettes by brands in Spain, from January 2005 to December 2021 (excluding the Canary Islands and the Autonomous Communities of the cities of Ceuta and Melilla). To achieve our objective, we used log(t) test statistics to check if there is global convergence in the three selected periods according to the regulatory changes that have occurred in Spain (2005-2021, 2005-2010 and 2011-2021). Second, once absolute convergence is rejected, we applied a clustering algorithm to test for the existence of subgroup convergence. RESULTS: The cigarette brands that have been marketed during the period 2005-2021 (n=40), can only be grouped into three groups according to the behavior of their sales. When we focus on the period 2005-2010 (n=74), cigarette brands are grouped into five groups according to their sales behavior. Finally, the cigarette brands marketed during the period 2011-2021 (n=67) are grouped into three groups according to the temporal evolution of their sales. These results suggest a greater homogenization of cigarette sales after the application of the law of January 2011. CONCLUSIONS: Act 42/2010 (total ban on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship actions) was associated with greater homogenization of cigarette sales than the application of Act 28/2005 (partial ban). This finding supports what is established in the previous literature that indicates that Act 42/2010 provided a more restrictive specification of the ban than Act 28/2005.

Closer together or farther apart: are there club convergence in ecological footprint?

This study empirically tests whether there is evidence of convergence in ecological footprint among 189 countries for the period 1990-2017. Using the novel log (t) regression model that accommodates likely transitional heterogeneity in the panel, the results provide evidence for the divergence of ecological footprint (EF) for the world sample. A similar empirical outcome was obtained for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe and Central Asia (ECA), East Asia and Pacific (EAP), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Nevertheless, the study found three convergence clubs for the world sample, SSA, ECA, and LAC, while two clubs were found for EAC and MENA. Further empirical results from the ordered logit and probit model suggest initial EF and natural resource utilization are the most critical driver of club membership in SSA. Since we established three club formations, the study recommends different environmental protection policies should be adopted for the countries in these convergence clubs. It is also important for SSA governments to implement strong environmental regulations in respect of the exploitation of resources.

Heterogeneous effects of energy consumption structure on ecological footprint.

Attention to environmental sustainability has increased among nations, especially after the Paris Agreement and COP26 of 2021. Considering that fossil fuel consumption is one of the main factors causing environmental degradation, altering the energy consumption patterns of nations toward clean energy can be a suitable solution. For this purpose, this study investigates the impact of energy consumption structure (ECS) on the ecological footprint from 1990 to 2017. This research includes three steps: First, the energy consumption structure is calculated using the Shannon-Wiener index. Second, from 64 countries with middle- and high-income levels, the club convergence method is used to identify countries with similar patterns in an ecological footprint over time. Third, using the method of moments quantile regression (MM-QR), we examined the effects of ECS in different quantiles. The results of club convergence show that the two groups of countries with 23 and 29 members have similar behavior over time. The results of the MM-QR model show that for club 1, the energy consumption structure in quantiles of 10th, 25th, and 50th has positive effects on the ecological footprint, while in 75th and 90th are negative. The results of club 2 indicate that the energy consumption structure has positive effects on the ecological footprint in quantiles 10th and 25th, but negative effects on 75th. Also, the results show that GDP, energy consumption, and population in both clubs have positive effects, and trade openness has negative effects on ecological footprint. Considering that the results indicate that changing the structure of energy consumption from fossil fuels to clean energies improves the environmental quality, so governments should use incentive policies and support packages for the development of clean energy and reduce the costs of installing renewable energy.

The club convergence of green productivity across African countries.

This study investigates economic convergence and sustainable development in Africa. By introducing an aggregate production technology and directional distance function, it examines the productivity growth of 28 African economies from 1990 to 2019. The proposed approach considers all decision-making units (countries) as a whole, and the productivity gains are then estimated under a nonparametric framework. In the empirical analysis, the carbon emissions are included in the Luenberger productivity measurement, called green productivity. The results show that the annual average growth rate of green productivity is 1.51% in African, and different types of club convergence for green productivity indicator and its decomposition are observed during the sample period. The decomposition of the Luenberger indicator shows that green African growth is mainly driven by technological progress, not efficiency change. Furthermore, the overall inefficiency is decomposed into technical and structural effects. The latter measure the potential improvement in terms of resource reallocation. Structural inefficiency is larger than technical inefficiency, suggesting that African countries could improve their economic and environmental performances by optimizing input/output mixes.

Statistical Measurements and Club Effects of High-Quality Development in Chinese Manufacturing.

Advanced manufacturing is the pillar for building a modern economic system. We measured the level of high-quality development of manufacturing (HQDM) in China, and found that it has gone through the three stages of expansion, cultivation, and promotion. Spatially, it is characterized as "high in the east, low in the west" and "fast in the west, slow in the east", and presents non-equilibrium characteristics. To overcome the subjective bias introduced by artificially set clubs, we utilize a data-driven nonlinear time-varying factor model for clustering into four convergent clubs, where provinces with higher intensity of environmental regulation and environmental preference tend to move closer to the clubs with a higher level of HQDM. We reveal the convergence patterns and regional differences in HQDM, which provides a new perspective for determining the trends of high-quality manufacturing development, thus allowing for policy recommendations targeted at narrowing the manufacturing development gap.

Does economic complexity lead to global carbon emissions convergence?

This study examines how economic complexity, along with human capital, total factor productivity, foreign direct investment, and trade openness, leads to per capita CO2 emissions (PCO2Es) convergence at club level in the case of 42 countries for the period of 1998-2019. To do so, first, this study implements the Phillips and Sul novel club convergence approach, and results show the existence of three clubs implying the distinct transition paths. Secondly, to examine how the economic complexity affects the PCO2Es in each club, this study applies a panel data model. This study finds the divergence in PCCO2Es when all 42 countries are considered together. However, there is existence of three clubs that are converging to their steady states due to economic complexity along with control variables. Further, the impact of economic complexity on PCO2Es is found to be different for the three clubs. For instance, a positive and significant relationship has been noted for clubs 1 and 2 (high and moderate PCO2Es). This implies that economic shifts in these countries degrade the environment. While in the case of club 3, we find a negative and significant relationship suggesting an improvement in the environmental quality. From the policy point of view, it can be suggested that environmental policies should be designed at the club level by targeting economic complexity. Further, club 1 and club 2 may improve the environmental quality by adopting some of the successful environmental policies from club 3 countries.

The evolution rule of green innovation efficiency and its convergence of industrial enterprises in China.

The heterogeneity can greatly influence the green innovative development of industrial enterprises. Based on the stochastic frontier analysis model of heterogeneity, this paper measures the green innovative efficiency of industrial enterprises in China for the time period of 2008 to 2017, and concludes the following results: (a) in the production function estimation, the R&D expenditure of industrial enterprises is the main positive factor in influencing green innovation, while the energy consumption the main negative factor. The effects of R&D talents and environment quality are not obvious at both stages. (b) The overall green innovation efficiency of industrial enterprises is only 0.2981 at R&D stage with an efficiency loss of 0.7019, and the residual efficiency of green innovation is 0.9966 with persistent efficiency as 0.2991. The overall green innovation efficiency of industrial enterprises is only 0.3930 at new product sales stage with an efficiency loss of 0.607, and the residual efficiency of green innovation is 0.8196 with persistent efficiency as 0.4783. (c) In the sample period, there appears to be an apparent decreasing of green innovative efficiency level from R&D stage to new product sales stage. Besides, the distribution of both overall efficiency and persistent efficiency tend to disperse, and there are great differences among years which are expanded at different stages. (d) Certain "club convergence" exists in overall efficiency and persistent efficiency of green innovation. The structural problem at R&D stage is the main factor in influencing the green innovation overall efficiency. The residual factors such as time effect at new product sales stage affect new product transformation. In order to increase green innovation efficiency, considering development level of selves, regions can establish a "club" to set up an efficient and sharable patent transfer platform, and reduce new product transformation loss.

Disparities in premature mortality: Evidence for the OECD countries.

This paper studies the existence of international health outcome disparities. We focus on the use of the potential years of life lost for a database that includes information from 33 OECD countries and covers the period 1990-2017. The methodology proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007) allows us to reject the existence of a single pattern of behaviour between countries for both males and females, suggesting the existence of severe health outcome inequalities. This methodology estimates the existence of four convergence clubs whose composition slightly varies when comparing the male and female cases. Some socioeconomic factors are found to be very important in explaining the forces that may drive the creation of these convergence clubs. In particular, the evolution of the economy and health policies are pivotal to understanding the creation of these estimated convergence clubs. Additionally, our results offer evidence in favor of the importance of environmental policies to explain these health outcome differences.

Club Convergence of Economies' Per Capita Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Countries That Proposed Carbon Neutrality.

To achieve the long-term goals outlined in the Paris Agreement that address climate change, many countries have committed to carbon neutrality targets. The study of the characteristics and emissions trends of these economies is essential for the realistic formulation of accurate corresponding carbon neutral policies. In this study, we investigate the convergence characteristics of per capita carbon emissions (PCCEs) in 121 countries with carbon neutrality targets from 1990 to 2019 using a nonlinear time-varying factor model-based club convergence analysis, followed by an ordered logit model to explore the mechanism of convergence club formation. The results reveal three relevant findings. (1) Three convergence clubs for the PCCEs of countries with proposed carbon neutrality targets were evident, and the PCCEs of different convergence clubs converged in multiple steady-state levels along differing transition paths. (2) After the Kyoto Protocol came into effect, some developed countries were moved to the club with lower emissions levels, whereas some developing countries displayed elevated emissions, converging with the higher-level club. (3) It was shown that countries with higher initial emissions, energy intensity, industrial structure, and economic development levels are more likely to converge with higher-PCCEs clubs, whereas countries with higher urbanization levels are more likely to converge in clubs with lower PCCEs.

A spatial econometric analysis of convergence in global environmental performance.

This study intends to test the presence of ß-convergence in the global Environmental Performance (EP). For this purpose, spatial Green Solow model is used as the theoretical framework of the study. Data of 88 developed and developing countries for the periods 1978-2017 is used. The present study utilizes ecological footprint (EF) as a comprehensive Environmental Performance Indicator (EPI). For data analysis, spatial econometric techniques have been used. To explore the spatial dependence of EP, Moran's I statistic was used. For regression analysis, this study has made the use of Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Findings of the study indicate that there is positive spatial autocorrelation in the EP of the countries which means countries with similar EP are clustered together. Results of SDM confirm the existence of ß-convergence in the global EP. Physical capital was found to degrade environment while break-even investment (BEI) was found to improve it.

Global disparities of greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture sector: panel club convergence analysis.

A lot has been discussed about the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the existing studies; the study on the club convergence of GHG emissions is limited particularly for the agriculture sector. This study tries to investigate the convergence hypothesis across 93 countries spanning 1980-2017. To examine the convergence hypothesis, we implement the novel Phillips and Sul test. Results obtained from this test show the evidence of divergence when we consider all 93 countries as a group. This implies that GHG emissions across the countries are following different convergence paths. To capture this, we further apply clustering algorithms and results show the existence of five clubs of convergence and one group stating the need for altering the policies at the club level to achieve a single steady state in GHG emissions. Moreover, our findings recommend that the mitigation policies should be considered in the presence of different clubs of regions with different convergence paths in terms of GHG emissions and account for the distributional effect of transfers across countries.

Do COVID-19 cases follow a similar transition path? Evidence from Indian states.

This paper assesses the convergence of COVID-19 cases by obtaining transition paths of Indian states covering the period from August 01 to October 31, 2020. The results based on Phillips-Sul test show evidence of different transition paths. These findings are useful from the policy perspective, particularly to see whether existing efforts made for stopping the spread of COVID-19 by states/central governments are effective.•Convergence of COVID-19 cases across Indian states is investigated.•The Phillips and Sul test is applied.•Findings are in favour of different transition paths.

Does biomass material footprint converge? Evidence from club convergence analysis.

Although several studies explored the issue of CO2/Ecological footprint convergence across the countries, study on biomass material footprint (BMF) convergence is scant. This study bridges this research gap by examining the "BMF convergence hypothesis" across 172 countries for the period from 1990 to 2017. To attain our objective, we use the novel Phillips and Sul (J Appl Econom 24(7):1153-1185, 2007a; Econometrica 75:1771-1855, 2007b) approach. We find that there is no evidence of convergence, while 172 countries are taken together. This implies that all the countries together are having different transition paths. Thus, Phillips and Sul test implements the clustering algorithms to identify the club convergence. Our results show the existence of six different steady-state (or club convergence) equilibriums for BMF. Thus, our findings show that climate change policies are required to be designed as per the existing clubs of the sample countries.