Problematic alcohol use and hippocampal volume in a female sample: disentangling cause from consequence using a co-twin control study design.

BACKGROUND: Although there is extensive evidence that problematic alcohol use is associated with smaller hippocampal volume, the typical cross-sectional study design cannot determine whether hippocampal deviations reflect pre-existing liability toward problematic alcohol use or instead reflect an alcohol exposure-related effect. We used the co-twin control study design, which capitalizes upon differences within a twin pair in levels of drinking, to differentiate pre-existing liability from an effect of alcohol exposure. METHODS: The sample included 100 female twins, prospectively assessed from ages 11 to 24. Problematic alcohol use was assessed dimensionally and included indicators of quantity, frequency, and density of alcohol use and intoxication. Hippocampal volume was assessed using magnetic resonance imaging. RESULTS: Problematic alcohol use (proximal and cumulative) was associated with significantly smaller left and right hippocampal volume. Follow-up co-twin control analyses that partitioned individual-level alcohol effects into pre-existing, familial liability and non-shared alcohol exposure-related effects indicated that this association reflected alcohol exposure. Greater alcohol using twins had smaller hippocampal volume relative to lesser alcohol using co-twins, beyond effects of their shared genetic and environmental liability toward problematic alcohol use. Results held accounting for recent alcohol use, other substance use, externalizing and internalizing psychopathology, personality traits, trauma exposure, and menstrual phase. CONCLUSIONS: The association between problematic alcohol use and smaller hippocampal volume likely reflects an alcohol exposure-related effect. Differentiating pre-existing brain deviations that confer risk for problematic alcohol use from those that reflect effects of alcohol on the brain will inform etiological models of addiction and further prevention and intervention efforts.

Between-within models for survival analysis.

A popular way to control for confounding in observational studies is to identify clusters of individuals (e.g., twin pairs), such that a large set of potential confounders are constant (shared) within each cluster. By studying the exposure-outcome association within clusters, we are in effect controlling for the whole set of shared confounders. An increasingly popular analysis tool is the between-within (BW) model, which decomposes the exposure-outcome association into a 'within-cluster effect' and a 'between-cluster effect'. BW models are relatively common for nonsurvival outcomes and have been studied in the theoretical literature. Although it is straightforward to use BW models for survival outcomes, this has rarely been carried out in practice, and such models have not been studied in the theoretical literature. In this paper, we propose a gamma BW model for survival outcomes. We compare the properties of this model with the more standard stratified Cox regression model and use the proposed model to analyze data from a twin study of obesity and mortality. We find the following: (i) the gamma BW model often produces a more powerful test of the 'within-cluster effect' than stratified Cox regression; and (ii) the gamma BW model is robust against model misspecification, although there are situations where it could give biased estimates.

Cystatin C Predicts Incident Cardiovascular Disease in Twins.

BACKGROUND: Cystatin C is associated with both renal function and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We have previously shown a genetic correlation between cystatin C and prevalent ASCVD. The objective of this article is to study whether variation in cystatin C or creatinine predicts incident ASCVD when controlled for genetic factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: The predictive value of cystatin C and creatinine for incident ASCVD was studied in 11 402 Swedish twins, free of CVD at baseline, in an adjusted Cox-regression model during a median follow-up of 71 months. Twin pairs discordant for incident stroke, myocardial infarction and ASCVD during follow-up were identified and within-pair comparisons regarding cystatin C and creatinine levels were performed. We also investigated whether contact frequency and degree of shared environment influences were associated with similarity in cystatin C levels. In univariate analysis, cystatin C predicted incident ASCVD hazard ratio 1.57, 95% CI 1.47-1.67. When adjusted for traditional Framingham risk factors as covariates, cystatin C remained a predictor of incident stroke hazard ratio 1.45, 95% CI (1.25-1.70), ASCVD hazard ratio 1.26, 95% CI (1.13-1.41), and myocardial infarction hazard ratio 1.16, 95% CI (1.01-1.33). In twins discordant for incident stroke, cystatin C at baseline was higher in the twin who experienced a stroke compared to the healthy co-twin (1.11±0.3 mg/L versus 1.06±0.3 mg/L), whereas creatinine was lower in the twin who developed CVD compared to their healthy co-twins (76.1±16.9 µmol/L versus 79.4±20.3 µmol/L). CONCLUSIONS: Variation in cystatin C relates to incident ASCVD and to stroke when adjusted for genetic confounding. In identical twins, cystatin C may be a sensitive marker of early hypertensive end-organ damage and small-vessel disease, whereas creatinine level may reflect nutritional status. The findings in disease-discordant monozygotic twins indicate that unique, possibly preventable, environmental factors are important.