PEMPS: a phylogenetic software tool to model the evolution of metabolic pathways.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic pathways support the enzyme flux that converts input chemicals into energy and cellular building blocks. With a constant rate of input, steady-state flux is achieved when metabolite concentrations and reaction rates remain constant over time. Individual genes undergo mutation, while selection acts on higher level functions of the pathway, such as steady-state flux where applicable. Modeling the evolution of metabolic pathways through mechanistic sets of ordinary differential equations is a piece of the genotype-phenotype map model for interpreting genetic variation and inter-specific differences. Such models can generate distinct compensatory changes and adaptive changes from directional selection, indicating single nucleotide polymorphisms and fixed differences that could affect phenotype. If used for inference, this would ultimately enable detection of selection on metabolic pathways as well as inference of ancestral states for metabolic pathway function. RESULTS: A software tool for simulating the evolution of metabolic pathways based upon underlying biochemistry, phylogenetics, and evolutionary considerations is presented. The Python program, Phylogenetic Evolution of Metabolic Pathway Simulator (PEMPS), implements a mutation-selection framework to simulate the evolution of the pathway over a phylogeny by interfacing with COPASI to calculate the steady-state flux of the metabolic network, introducing mutations as alterations in parameter values according to a model, and calculating a fitness score and corresponding probability of fixation based on the change in steady-state flux value(s). Results from simulations are consistent with a priori expectations of fixation probabilities and systematic change in model parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The PEMPS program simulates the evolution of a metabolic pathway with a mutation-selection modeling framework based on criteria like steady-state flux that is designed to work with SBML-formatted kinetic models, and Newick-formatted phylogenetic trees. The Python software is run on the Linux command line and is available at https://github.com/nmccloskey/PEMPS .

Evolutionary potential mitigates extinction risk under climate change in the endangered southwestern willow flycatcher.

The complexity of global anthropogenic change makes forecasting species responses and planning effective conservation actions challenging. Additionally, important components of a species' adaptive capacity, such as evolutionary potential, are often not included in quantitative risk assessments due to lack of data. While genomic proxies for evolutionary potential in at-risk species are increasingly available, they have not yet been included in extinction risk assessments at a species-wide scale. In this study, we used an individual-based, spatially explicit, dynamic eco-evolutionary simulation model to evaluate the extinction risk of an endangered desert songbird, the southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus), in response to climate change. Using data from long-term demographic and habitat studies in conjunction with genome-wide ecological genomics research, we parameterized simulations that include 418 sites across the breeding range, genomic data from 225 individuals, and climate change forecasts spanning 3 generalized circulation models and 3 emissions scenarios. We evaluated how evolutionary potential, and the lack of it, impacted population trajectories in response to climate change. We then investigated the compounding impact of drought and warming temperatures on extinction risk through the mechanism of increased nest failure. Finally, we evaluated how rapid action to reverse greenhouse gas emissions would influence population responses and species extinction risk. Our results illustrate the value of incorporating evolutionary, demographic, and dispersal processes in a spatially explicit framework to more comprehensively evaluate the extinction risk of threatened and endangered species and conservation actions to promote their recovery.

Heuristics Facilitates the Evolution of Transitive Inference and Social Hierarchy in a Large Group.

Transitive inference (TI) refers to social cognition that facilitates the discernment of unknown relationships between individuals using known relationships. It is extensively reported that TI evolves in animals living in a large group because TI could assess relative rank without deducing all dyadic relationships, which averts costly fights. The relationships in a large group become so complex that social cognition may not be developed adequately to handle such complexity. If members apply TI to all possible members in the group, TI requires extremely highly developed cognitive abilities especially in a large group. Instead of developing cognitive abilities significantly, animals may apply simplified TI we call reference TI in this study as heuristic approaches. The reference TI allows members to recognize and remember social interactions only among a set of reference members rather than all potential members. Our study assumes that information processes in the reference TI comprises (1) the number of reference members based on which individuals infer transitively, (2) the number of reference members shared by the same strategists, and (3) memory capacity. We examined how information processes evolve in a large group using evolutionary simulations in the hawk-dove game. Information processes with almost any numbers of reference members could evolve in a large group as long as the numbers of shared reference member are high because information from the others' experiences is shared. TI dominates immediate inference, which assesses relative rank on direct interactions, because TI could establish social hierarchy more rapidly applying information from others' experiences.

Dynamical systems approach to evolution-development congruence: Revisiting Haeckel's recapitulation theory.

It is acknowledged that embryonic development has a tendency to proceed from common toward specific. Ernst Haeckel raised the question of why that tendency prevailed through evolution, and the question remains unsolved. Here, we revisit Haeckel's recapitulation theory, that is, the parallelism between evolution and development through numerical evolution and dynamical systems theory. By using intracellular gene expression dynamics with cell-to-cell interaction over spatially aligned cells to represent the developmental process, gene regulation networks (GRN) that govern these dynamics evolve under the selection pressure to achieve a prescribed spatial gene expression pattern. For most numerical evolutionary experiments, the evolutionary pattern changes over generations, as well as the developmental pattern changes governed by the evolved GRN exhibit remarkable similarity. Changes in both patterns consisted of several epochs where stripes are formed in a short time, whereas for other temporal regimes, the pattern hardly changes. In evolution, these quasi-stationary generations are needed to achieve relevant mutations, whereas, in development, they are due to some gene expressions that vary slowly and control the pattern change. These successive epochal changes in development and evolution are represented as common bifurcations in dynamical systems theory, regulating working network structure from feedforward subnetwork to those containing feedback loops. The congruence is the correspondence between successive acquisitions of subnetworks through evolution and changes in working subnetworks in development. Consistency of the theory with the segmentation gene-expression dynamics is discussed. Novel outlook on recapitulation and heterochrony are provided, testable experimentally by the transcriptome and network analysis.

A Simulation-Based Evaluation of Tip-Dating Under the Fossilized Birth-Death Process.

Bayesian molecular dating is widely used to study evolutionary timescales. This procedure usually involves phylogenetic analysis of nucleotide sequence data, with fossil-based calibrations applied as age constraints on internal nodes of the tree. An alternative approach is tip-dating, which explicitly includes fossil data in the analysis. This can be done, for example, through the joint analysis of molecular data from present-day taxa and morphological data from both extant and fossil taxa. In the context of tip-dating, an important development has been the fossilized birth-death process, which allows non-contemporaneous tips and sampled ancestors while providing a model of lineage diversification for the prior on the tree topology and internal node times. However, tip-dating with fossils faces a number of considerable challenges, especially, those associated with fossil sampling and evolutionary models for morphological characters. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the performance of tip-dating using the fossilized birth-death model. We simulated fossil occurrences and the evolution of nucleotide sequences and morphological characters under a wide range of conditions. Our analyses of these data show that the number and the maximum age of fossil occurrences have a greater influence than the degree of among-lineage rate variation or the number of morphological characters on estimates of node times and the tree topology. Tip-dating with the fossilized birth-death model generally performs well in recovering the relationships among extant taxa but has difficulties in correctly placing fossil taxa in the tree and identifying the number of sampled ancestors. The method yields accurate estimates of the ages of the root and crown group, although the precision of these estimates varies with the probability of fossil occurrence. The exclusion of morphological characters results in a slight overestimation of node times, whereas the exclusion of nucleotide sequences has a negative impact on inference of the tree topology. Our results provide an overview of the performance of tip-dating using the fossilized birth-death model, which will inform further development of the method and its application to key questions in evolutionary biology.

Predicting evolutionary responses to interspecific interference in the wild.

Many interspecifically territorial species interfere with each other reproductively, and in some cases, aggression towards heterospecifics may be an adaptive response to interspecific mate competition. This hypothesis was recently formalised in an agonistic character displacement (ACD) model which predicts that species should evolve to defend territories against heterospecific rivals above a threshold level of reproductive interference. To test this prediction, we parameterised the model with field estimates of reproductive interference for 32 sympatric damselfly populations and ran evolutionary simulations. Asymmetries in reproductive interference made the outcome inherently unpredictable in some cases, but 80% of the model's stable outcomes matched levels of heterospecific aggression in the field, significantly exceeding chance expectations. In addition to bolstering the evidence for ACD, this paper introduces a new, predictive approach to testing character displacement theory that, if applied to other systems, could help in resolving long-standing questions about the importance of character displacement processes in nature.

Consequences of Single-Locus and Tightly Linked Genomic Architectures for Evolutionary Responses to Environmental Change.

Genetic and genomic architectures of traits under selection are key factors influencing evolutionary responses. Yet, knowledge of their impacts has been limited by a widespread assumption that most traits are controlled by unlinked polygenic architectures. Recent advances in genome sequencing and eco-evolutionary modeling are unlocking the potential for integrating genomic information into predictions of population responses to environmental change. Using eco-evolutionary simulations, we demonstrate that hypothetical single-locus control of a life history trait produces highly variable and unpredictable harvesting-induced evolution relative to the classically applied multilocus model. Single-locus control of complex traits is thought to be uncommon, yet blocks of linked genes, such as those associated with some types of structural genomic variation, have emerged as taxonomically widespread phenomena. Inheritance of linked architectures resembles that of single loci, thus enabling single-locus-like modeling of polygenic adaptation. Yet, the number of loci, their effect sizes, and the degree of linkage among them all occur along a continuum. We review how linked architectures are often associated, directly or indirectly, with traits expected to be under selection from anthropogenic stressors and are likely to play a large role in adaptation to environmental disturbance. We suggest using single-locus models to explore evolutionary extremes and uncertainties when the trait architecture is unknown, refining parameters as genomic information becomes available, and explicitly incorporating linkage among loci when possible. By overestimating the complexity (e.g., number of independent loci) of the genomic architecture of traits under selection, we risk underestimating the complexity (e.g., nonlinearity) of their evolutionary dynamics.

Immune Signaling Networks: Sources of Robustness and Constrained Evolvability during Coevolution.

Defense against infection incurs costs as well as benefits that are expected to shape the evolution of optimal defense strategies. In particular, many theoretical studies have investigated contexts favoring constitutive versus inducible defenses. However, even when one immune strategy is theoretically optimal, it may be evolutionarily unachievable. This is because evolution proceeds via mutational changes to the protein interaction networks underlying immune responses, not by changes to an immune strategy directly. Here, we use a theoretical simulation model to examine how underlying network architectures constrain the evolution of immune strategies, and how these network architectures account for desirable immune properties such as inducibility and robustness. We focus on immune signaling because signaling molecules are common targets of parasitic interference but are rarely studied in this context. We find that in the presence of a coevolving parasite that disrupts immune signaling, hosts evolve constitutive defenses even when inducible defenses are theoretically optimal. This occurs for two reasons. First, there are relatively few network architectures that produce immunity that is both inducible and also robust against targeted disruption. Second, evolution toward these few robust inducible network architectures often requires intermediate steps that are vulnerable to targeted disruption. The few networks that are both robust and inducible consist of many parallel pathways of immune signaling with few connections among them. In the context of relevant empirical literature, we discuss whether this is indeed the most evolutionarily accessible robust inducible network architecture in nature, and when it can evolve.

Hybridization can promote adaptive radiation by means of transgressive segregation.

Understanding the mechanisms of rapid adaptive radiation has been a central problem of evolutionary ecology. Recently, there is a growing recognition that hybridization between different evolutionary lineages can facilitate adaptive radiation by creating novel phenotypes. Yet, theoretical plausibility of this hypothesis remains unclear because, for example, hybridization can negate pre-existing species richness. Here, we theoretically investigate whether and under what conditions hybridization promotes ecological speciation and adaptive radiation using an individual-based model to simulate genome evolution following hybridization between two allopatrically evolved lineages. The model demonstrated that transgressive segregation through hybridization can facilitate adaptive radiation, most powerfully when novel vacant ecological niches are highly dissimilar, phenotypic effect size of mutations is small and there is moderate genetic differentiation between parental lineages. These results provide a theoretical basis for the effect of hybridization facilitating adaptive radiation.

General continuous-time Markov model of sequence evolution via insertions/deletions: local alignment probability computation.

BACKGROUND: Insertions and deletions (indels) account for more nucleotide differences between two related DNA sequences than substitutions do, and thus it is imperative to develop a method to reliably calculate the occurrence probabilities of sequence alignments via evolutionary processes on an entire sequence. Previously, we presented a perturbative formulation that facilitates the ab initio calculation of alignment probabilities under a continuous-time Markov model, which describes the stochastic evolution of an entire sequence via indels with quite general rate parameters. And we demonstrated that, under some conditions, the ab initio probability of an alignment can be factorized into the product of an overall factor and contributions from regions (or local alignments) delimited by gapless columns. RESULTS: Here, using our formulation, we attempt to approximately calculate the probabilities of local alignments under space-homogeneous cases. First, for each of all types of local pairwise alignments (PWAs) and some typical types of local multiple sequence alignments (MSAs), we numerically computed the total contribution from all parsimonious indel histories and that from all next-parsimonious histories, and compared them. Second, for some common types of local PWAs, we derived two integral equation systems that can be numerically solved to give practically exact solutions. We compared the total parsimonious contribution with the practically exact solution for each such local PWA. Third, we developed an algorithm that calculates the first-approximate MSA probability by multiplying total parsimonious contributions from all local MSAs. Then we compared the first-approximate probability of each local MSA with its absolute frequency in the MSAs created via a genuine sequence evolution simulator, Dawg. In all these analyses, the total parsimonious contributions approximated the multiplication factors fairly well, as long as gap sizes and branch lengths are at most moderate. Examination of the accuracy of another indel probabilistic model in the light of our formulation indicated some modifications necessary for the model's accuracy improvement. CONCLUSIONS: At least under moderate conditions, the approximate methods can quite accurately calculate ab initio alignment probabilities under biologically more realistic models than before. Thus, our formulation will provide other indel probabilistic models with a sound reference point.

Alternative responses to rare selection events are differentially vulnerable to changes in the frequency, scope, and intensity of environmental extremes.

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, severe, and/or widespread as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. While the economic and ecological implications of these changes have received considerable attention, the role of evolutionary processes in determining organismal responses to these critical challenges is currently unknown. Here we develop a novel theoretical framework that explores how alternative pathways for adaptation to rare selection events can influence population-level vulnerabilities to future changes in the frequency, scope, and intensity of environmental extremes. We begin by showing that different life histories and trait expression profiles can shift the balance between additive and multiplicative properties of fitness accumulation, favoring different evolutionary responses to identical environmental phenomena. We then demonstrate that these different adaptive outcomes lead to predictable differences in population-level vulnerabilities to rapid increases in the frequency, intensity, or scope of extreme weather events. Specifically, we show that when the primary mode of fitness accumulation is additive, evolution favors ignoring environmental extremes and lineages become highly vulnerable to extinction if the frequency or scope of extreme weather events suddenly increases. Conversely, when fitness accumulates primarily multiplicatively, evolution favors bet-hedging phenotypes that cope well with historical extremes and are instead vulnerable to sudden increases in extreme event intensity. Our findings address a critical gap in our understanding of the potential consequences of rare selection events and provide a relatively simple rubric for assessing the vulnerabilities of any population of interest to changes in a wide variety of extreme environmental phenomena.

Recursive Combination Has Adaptability in Diversifiability of Production and Material Culture.

It has been suggested that hierarchically structured symbols, a remarkable feature of human language, are produced via the operation of recursive combination. Recursive combination is frequently observed in human behavior, not only in language but also in action sequences, mind-reading, technology, etc. in contrast, it is rarely observed in animals. Why is it that only humans use this operation? What is the adaptability of recursive combination? We aim (1) to identify the environmental feature(s) in which recursive combination is effective for survival and reproduction, and that has facilitated the evolution of this ability, and (2) to demonstrate the possible evolutionary processes of recursive combination. To achieve this, we constructed an evolutionary simulation of agents that generated products using recursive combination and used the results to explore the types of fitness functions (that reflect the kinds of adaptive environments) that give rise to this ability. We identified two types of adaptability of the recursive combination: (1) diversifiability of production and (2) diversifiability of products. Through the former, recursive combination promotes robustness against failure of production caused by inaccurate manipulations or irreversible changes. In an environment in which diversified products are preferable, sharing a portion of the production process for these products entails producing multiple products in which recursive combination plays a key role. We suppose that recursive combination works as a driving force of material culture. Finally, we discuss the possible evolutionary scenarios of recursive combination that is later generalized to encompass many aspects of human cognition, including human language.