Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming.

Temperature extremes exert a significant influence on terrestrial ecosystems, but the precise levels at which these extremes trigger adverse shifts in vegetation productivity have remained elusive. In this study, we have derived two critical thresholds, using standard deviations (SDs) of growing-season temperature and satellite-based vegetation productivity as key indicators. Our findings reveal that, on average, vegetation productivity experiences rapid suppression when confronted with temperature anomalies exceeding 1.45 SD above the mean temperature during 2001-2018. Furthermore, at temperatures exceeding 2.98 SD above the mean, we observe the maximum level of suppression, particularly in response to the most extreme high-temperature events. When Earth System Models are driven by a future medium emission scenario, they project that mean temperatures will routinely surpass both of these critical thresholds by approximately the years 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, it is important to note that the timing of these threshold crossings exhibits spatial variation and will appear much earlier in tropical regions. Our finding highlights that restricting global warming to just 1.5°C can increase safe areas for vegetation growth by 13% compared to allowing warming to reach 2°C above preindustrial levels. This mitigation strategy helps avoid exposure to detrimental extreme temperatures that breach these thresholds. Our study underscores the pivotal role of climate mitigation policies in fostering the sustainable development of terrestrial ecosystems in a warming world.

'Flashforward' mental imagery in adolescents: exploring developmental differences and associations with mental health.

BACKGROUND: Future events can spring to mind unbidden in the form of involuntary mental images also known as 'flashforwards', which are deemed important for understanding and treating emotional distress. However, there has been little exploration of this form of imagery in youth, and even less so in those with high psychopathology vulnerabilities (e.g. due to developmental differences associated with neurodiversity or maltreatment). AIMS: We aimed to test whether flashforwards are heightened (e.g. more frequent and emotional) in autistic and maltreatment-exposed adolescents relative to typically developing adolescents. We also explored their associations with anxiety/depression symptoms. METHOD: A survey including measures of flashforward imagery and mental health was completed by a group of adolescents (n=87) aged 10-16 (and one of their caregivers) who met one of the following criteria: (i) had a diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder; (ii) a history of maltreatment; or (ii) no autism/maltreatment. RESULTS: Flashforwards (i) were often of positive events and related to career, education and/or learning; with phenomenological properties (e.g. frequency and emotionality) that were (ii) not significantly different between groups; but nevertheless (iii) associated with symptoms of anxiety across groups (particularly for imagery emotionality), even after accounting for general trait (non-future) imagery vividness. CONCLUSIONS: As a modifiable cognitive risk factor, flashforward imagery warrants further consideration for understanding and improving mental health in young people. This implication may extend to range of developmental backgrounds, including autism and maltreatment.

Dynamics and future prediction of LULC on Pare River basin of Arunachal Pradesh using machine learning techniques.

Anthropogenic disturbances caused by increasing population densities are a significant concern as they accelerate climate change. Thus, regular monitoring of land use/land cover (LULC) is essential to mitigate these effects. Pare River basin of Arunachala Pradesh situated in the foothills of Eastern Himalayas was selected for this study. Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-8 OLI data from 2000 (T1), 2015 (T2), and 2020 (T3) were used to prepare the LULC map. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment was utilized for classification of LULC, while the TerrSet software environment was used for change analysis and projection using the CA-MC model. The SVM classifier produced overall all classification accuracies of 0.91, 0.85, and 0.91 with kappa values of 0.88, 0.82, and 0.89 for T1, T2, and T3, respectively. The CA-MC model, which combines Markov chain and hybrid cellular automata, was calibrated with various predictor variables, including natural, proximity, and demographic variables along with T1 and T2 LULC and validated using T3 LULC. The MLP was used for calibration, and an accuracy rate of above 0.70 was employed to generate transition potential maps (TPMs). The TPMs were used to project future LULC for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Validation analysis produced satisfactory results, with Kno, Klocation, Kquality, and Kstandard values of 0.96, 0.95, 0.95, and 0.93, respectively. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis showed an excellent area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.87. The findings of this study provide important insights to decision-makers and stakeholders in addressing the impacts of LULC changes.

Substantial methane emissions from abandoned coal mines in China.

China has shut down and abandoned a substantial number of coal mines since 1999, which have been releasing methane (CH4) for many years. However, the characteristics of China's abandoned mine methane (AMM) emissions are still unclear; this is a concerning knowledge gap because coal mines are the largest contributor to China's anthropogenic CH4 emissions. This study used two methods to estimate China's historical AMM emissions over the past 40 years (1980-2020) and to project its AMM emissions to 2060 which is the target year for China's carbon neutrality goal. The results show that China's AMM emissions increased substantially from 0.11 ± 0.03 million tons per year (Mt/yr) (3.1 ± 0.84 Mt/yr CO2-eq) in 1980 to 4.7 ± 0.94 Mt/yr (131 ± 26 Mt/yr CO2-eq) in 2020. An accelerated growth rate was found during 1998-2005, with AMM emissions rapidly increasing by approximately three times, which was consistent with the high number of mine shutdowns. In 2019, we found that AMM emissions had become the fourth largest anthropogenic source in China, higher than the national anthropogenic CH4 emissions of individual United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Annex I countries excluding the United States of America and the Russian Federation. If unabated, China's AMM emissions are projected to peak at 8.7 ± 2.6 Mt/yr in 2040 and reach approximately one-third of China's anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 2060. This study reveals that understanding AMM emissions can help more accurately quantify China's total CH4 emissions and guide their future mitigation.

Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño.

El Niño's intensity change under anthropogenic warming is of great importance to society, yet current climate models' projections remain largely uncertain. The current classification of El Niño does not distinguish the strong from the moderate El Niño events, making it difficult to project future change of El Niño's intensity. Here we classify 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017 by cluster analysis of the onset and amplification processes, and the resultant 4 types of El Niño distinguish the strong from the moderate events and the onset from successive events. The 3 categories of El Niño onset exhibit distinct development mechanisms. We find El Niño onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s. This regime change is hypothesized to arise from a background warming in the western Pacific and the associated increased zonal and vertical sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial central Pacific, which reveals a controlling factor that could lead to increased extreme El Niño events in the future. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models' projections demonstrate that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Niño events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced. If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The models' uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Niño's future changes.

Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators.

Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.

Projections of disability-adjusted life years for major diseases due to a change in vegetable intake in 2017-2040 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Low vegetable intake is one of the key dietary risk factors known to be associated with a range of health problems, including cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), cancer, and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKDs). Using data from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017, this study aimed to forecast the impact of change in vegetable intake on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2017 and 2040 for three diseases. METHODS: We generated a three-component model of cause-specific DALYs, including changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors, the socio-demographic index and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to project future DALY rates for 2017-2040 using the data between 1990 and 2016. Data on Vegetable consumption and risk predictors, and DALY rate were obtained from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases Study in 2017. We also modelled three scenarios of better, moderate and worse cases to evaluate the impact of change in vegetable consumption on the DALY rates for three diseases (CVDs, cancer, and DKDs). RESULTS: Projected mean vegetable intake in the total population showed a decreasing trend through 2040 to 237.7 g/day. A significant difference between the reference scenario and the better case scenario was observed with un-overlapped 95% prediction intervals of DALY rates in females aged 20-49 years (- 8.0%) for CVDs, the total population for cancer (- 5.6%), and in males (- 8.2%) and females (- 13.7%) for DKDs. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis indicates that increased vegetable consumption would have a significant reduction in the burdens of CVDs, cancer and DKDs in Japan. By estimating the disease burden attributable to low vegetable intake under different scenarios of future vegetable consumption, our study can inform the design of targeted interventions for public health challenges.

Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins.

Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (±12%-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (±35%-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.

Not my future? Core values and the neural representation of future events.

Individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values have been shown to put greater weight on the long-term consequences of their actions when making decisions. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying the evaluation of events occurring several decades in the future as well as the role of core values in these processes. Thirty-six participants viewed a series of events, consisting of potential consequences of climate change, which could occur in the near future (around 2030), and thus would be experienced by the participants themselves, or in the far future (around 2080). We observed increased activation in anterior VMPFC (BA11), a region involved in encoding the personal significance of future events, when participants were envisioning far future events, demonstrating for the first time that the role of the VMPFC in future projection extends to the time scale of decades. Importantly, this activation increase was observed only in participants with pronounced self-transcendence values measured by self-report questionnaire, as shown by a statistically significant interaction of temporal distance and value structure. These findings suggest that future projection mechanisms are modulated by self-transcendence values to allow for a more extensive simulation of far future events. Consistent with this, these participants reported similar concern ratings for near and far future events, whereas participants with pronounced self-enhancement values were more concerned about near future events. Our findings provide a neural substrate for the tendency of individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values to consider the long-term consequences of their actions.

Current and future carbon budget at Takayama site, Japan, evaluated by a regional climate model and a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model.

Accurate projection of carbon budget in forest ecosystems under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is important to evaluate the function of terrestrial ecosystems, which serve as a major sink of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we examined the effects of spatial resolution of meteorological data on the accuracies of ecosystem model simulation for canopy phenology and carbon budget such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) of a deciduous forest in Japan. Then, we simulated the future (around 2085) changes in canopy phenology and carbon budget of the forest by incorporating high-resolution meteorological data downscaled by a regional climate model. The ecosystem model overestimated GPP and ER when we inputted low-resolution data, which have warming biases over mountainous landscape. But, it reproduced canopy phenology and carbon budget well, when we inputted high-resolution data. Under the future climate, earlier leaf expansion and delayed leaf fall by about 10 days compared with the present state was simulated, and also, GPP, ER and NEP were estimated to increase by 25.2%, 23.7% and 35.4%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the increase of NEP in June and October would be mainly caused by rising temperature, whereas that in July and August would be largely attributable to CO2 fertilization. This study suggests that the downscaling of future climate data enable us to project more reliable carbon budget of forest ecosystem in mountainous landscape than the low-resolution simulation due to the better predictions of leaf expansion and shedding.

The Phenomenology and Generation of Positive Mental Imagery in Early Psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Theoretical models of depression and bipolar disorder emphasise the importance of positive mental imagery in mood and behaviour. Distressing, intrusive images are common in psychosis; however, little is known about positive imagery experiences or their association with clinical symptoms. The aim of the current study was to examine the phenomenology of positive imagery in early psychosis and the relationship between the characteristics of positive, future-oriented imagery and symptom severity. METHOD: Characteristics, thematic content and appraisals of recent self-reported images were examined in 31 people with early psychosis. The vividness and perceived likelihood of deliberately generated, future-oriented images were investigated in relation to clinical symptoms. RESULTS: Eighty-four percent of participants reported experiencing a recent positive image. Themes included the achievement of personal goals, spending enjoyable time with peers and family, loving, intimate relationships and escape from current circumstances. The vividness and perceived likelihood of generated prospective imagery were negatively correlated with levels of depression and social anxiety. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between emotional problems and the ability to imagine positive, future events may have implications for motivation, mood and goal-directed behaviour in psychosis. Everyday experiences of positive imagery may represent the simulation of future goals, attempts to cope or avoid aversive experiences or idealised fantasy. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY PRACTITIONER MESSAGE: The majority of participants experienced a recent positive image with themes related to goal attainment and social relationships. Depression and social anxiety levels were correlated with the vividness of intentionally generated positive future-oriented images and their perceived likelihood. The assessment of positive imagery in early psychosis appears warranted and may provide insights regarding individual coping strategies, values and goals.

Prevalence and future prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A systematic review of published studies.

To highlight the prevalence and future projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The systematic analytic study was conducted in the Department of Physiology, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from Dec 2014 to April 2015. Systematic bibliographic search of scientific databases including ISI-web of science, PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted with key words of "diabetes mellitus" "prevalence", "incidence". Total 46 peer reviewed papers were selected and examined. All the experimental and epidemiologic studies reporting the prevalence of diabetes in Saudi Arabia were included. There was no restriction on publication prestige and language of the publication. Finally, we included 21 publications and remaining 25 papers were excluded. The future predicted prevalence of type 2 diabetes was calculated on the results of the published studies by regressing the 33 years (1982-2015) of prevalence rate of diabetes against the time period. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia is 32.8%. However, the predicted prevalence will be 35.37% in 2020; 40.37% in 2025 and 45.36% in the year 2030. The coefficient on time factor indicated that prevalence rate has increased during 1982-2015. Saudi Arabia has a highest prevalence (32.8%) of type 2 diabetes mellitus. We forecast that the incidence of type 2 diabetes will increase from 32.8% in 2015 to 45.36% in 2030. Saudi Arabia should include diabetes preventive measures on a war footing basis in their national health policy to minimize the burden of the disease.

Prediction of the future number of fall-related emergency medical services calls in older individuals.

BACKGROUND: Falls among older individuals contribute significantly to the rise in ambulance transport use. To recognize the importance of future countermeasures, we estimated the projected number and percentage of fall-related emergency medical service (EMS) calls. METHODS: We examined the sex, age group, and location of falls among patients aged ≥ 65 years who contacted emergency services in Sapporo City from 2013 to 2021. Annual fall-related calls per population subgroup were calculated, and trends were analyzed. Four models were used to estimate the future number of fall-related calls from the 2025-2060 projected population: (1) based on the 2022 data, estimates from the 2013-2022 data using (2) Poisson progression, (3) neural network, (4) estimates from the 2013-2019 data using neural network. The number of all EMS calls was also determined using the same method to obtain the ratio of all EMS calls. RESULTS: During 2013-2022, 70,262 fall-related calls were made for those aged ≥ 65 years. The rate was higher indoors among females and outdoor among males in most age groups and generally increased with age. After adjusting for age, the rate increased by year. Future estimates of the number of fall calls are approximately double the number in 2022 in 2040 and three times in 2060, with falls accounting for approximately 11% and 13% of all EMS calls in 2040 and 2060, respectively. CONCLUSION: The number of fall-related EMS calls among older people is expected to increase in the future, and the percentage of EMS calls will also increase; therefore, countermeasures are urgently needed.

Assessment of Arctic sea ice simulations in cGENIE model and projections under RCP scenarios.

Simulating and predicting Arctic sea ice accurately remains an academic focus due to the complex and unclear mechanisms of Arctic sea ice variability and model biases. Meanwhile, the relevant forecasting and monitoring authorities are searching for models to meet practical needs. Given the previous ideal performance of cGENIE model in other fields and notable features, we evaluated the model's skill in simulating Arctic sea ice using multiple methods and it demonstrates great potential and combined advantages. On this basis, we examined the direct drivers of sea-ice variability and predicted the future spatio-temporal changes of Arctic sea ice using the model under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Further studies also found that Arctic sea ice concentration shows large regional differences under RCP 8.5, while the magnitude of the reduction in Arctic sea ice thickness is generally greater compared to concentration, showing a more uniform consistency of change.

A multi-scenario ensemble approach incorporating stepwise cluster analysis to reduce uncertainty in large-scale watershed precipitation projections: a case study of Pearl River Basin, South China.

Assessing and selecting climate models with lower uncertainty is necessary to predict future climate and hydrological risks at the watershed scale. In this study, we integrated stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) to propose a multi-model ensemble downscaling framework aimed at reducing the uncertainty of GCM-based precipitation projections in large-scale watersheds. The Pearl River Basin (PRB) in southern China was selected as the study area to validate the reliability of this framework. Spatially, we investigated the features of terrain-related spatial heterogeneity in precipitation simulation of different climate models using a stepwise cluster zoning approach. The spatial performance of most CMIP6 models was effective in capturing the annual mean precipitation from the source region to the downstream of the PRB. To further evaluate the model's skill in simulating precipitation patterns, we conducted a seasonal analysis for different periods throughout the year. However, the seasonal precipitation cycle exhibited a wet bias during cold seasons, and the most significant deviation of precipitation percentage intervals occurred during winter. The TSS ranking of CMIP6 models was used to select the top-performing models to construct an improved multi-model ensemble mean (MEM5), resulting in a more accurate precipitation simulation for PRB. Results showed consistent precipitation increases (p < 0.05) for all scenarios in the PRB, with the middle and lower reaches being the most sensitive to changes in precipitation. The improved MEM5 can serve as a valuable reference for accurately simulating hydrological regimes and extreme weather events in the PRB. The proposed multi-model ensemble downscaling framework, which incorporates SCA, offers a new approach for high-resolution and low-uncertainty climate simulations in other large-scale watersheds.

From expansion to efficiency: Machine learning-based forecasting of Japan's building material stocks under demographic declines.

Japan's unique demographic trajectory, marked by population decline and aging, coupled with continued urbanization, presents distinct challenges for aligning built environment capacity with resource efficiency. This study aims to investigate the historical evolution and project future scenarios of building material stock (MS) and their spatial distribution across Japan's three major metropolitan areas. Through a comprehensive material flow and stock analysis, the historical accumulation of building materials from 2009 to 2020 was quantified, revealing a dominance of concrete and an increasing overall stock. The contributions of various driving factors to changes in construction areas were explored, identifying population dynamics as the predominant influence. Leveraging shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs), this research forecasted building floor area and MS until 2050 under five distinct SSPs. The results indicated an overall reduction across all scenarios, yet with a continued concentration in high-density urban cores. The substantial gap between the highest and lowest projected MS scenarios highlighted opportunities for material conservation and emission reductions through sustainable practices. Sustainable urban development in densely populated regions necessitates a balance between infrastructure provision and environmental conservation, while in sparsely populated areas, the focus shifts to the efficient management and utilization of vacant properties and materials to cope with the impacts of significant population declines. By offering insights into the building floor area and MS implications of Japan's demographic changes, this study underscores the necessity of sustainable urban planning and resource management strategies to navigate the challenges posed by demographic shifts, ultimately contributing to sustainable development and environmental conservation goals.

Continued decline of global soil moisture content, with obvious soil stratification and regional difference.

Soil is an important component connecting atmosphere and vegetation, and is an important 'regulator' of slope hydrological process. Global warming accelerates the global water cycle, and Soil Moisture Content (SMC) will change, but this change is not yet clear. Here, we study the global trend of SMC at different depths over the past 70 years and the next 70 years, based on the GLDAS-NOAH025 dataset and precipitation and temperature data from 15 CMIP6 models. We found that compared with the long-term average of 70 years, the global 0-200 cm SMC is decreasing at a rate of 1.284 kg/m2 per year from 2000 to 2020, and the area showing a significant decreasing trend accounts for 31.67 % of the global. Over the past decade, 0-200 cm SMC reduction rate (2.251 kg/m2) doubled. Global warming and precipitation reduction are the main reasons for the attenuation of SMC at different depths in the global from 2000 to 2020. Under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, the global 0-200 cm SMC will continue to decay in the future, and the area showing a significant reduction trend accounts for 22.73-49.71 % of the global, but the stratified soil and regional differences are obvious. The attenuation of SMC will further aggravate the global water cycle and enhance the variability of extreme meteorological disasters. We will face more severe soil drought problems.

Anticipated nostalgia.

Anticipated nostalgia is the foreseeing of looking back on life events and expecting to feel nostalgic about it in the future. I review recent findings on the content, affective profile, and psychological benefits of anticipated nostalgia. I also review neurological and cognitive evidence that may explain the mechanism underlying anticipated nostalgia. Finally, I discuss anticipated nostalgia in an applied setting, consumer behavior.

Future Projection of Extreme Precipitation Indices over the Qilian Mountains under Global Warming.

The Qilian Mountains are a climate-sensitive area in northwest China, and extreme precipitation events have an important impact on its ecological environment. Therefore, considering the global warming scenario, it is highly important to project the extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the future. This study is based on three CMIP6 models (CESM2, EC-Earth3, and KACE-1-0-G). A bias correction algorithm (QDM) was used to correct the precipitation outputs of the models. The eight extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains during the historical period and in the future were calculated using meteorological software (ClimPACT2), and the performance of the CMIP6 models to simulate the extreme precipitation indices of the Qilian Mountains in the historical period was evaluated. Results revealed that: (1) The corrected CMIP6 models could simulate the changes in extreme precipitation indices over the Qilian Mountains in the historical period relatively well, and the corrected CESM2 displayed better simulation as compared to the other two CMIP6 models. The CMIP6 models performed well while simulating R10mm (CC is higher than 0.71) and PRCPTOT (CC is higher than 0.84). (2) The changes in the eight extreme precipitation indices were greater with the enhancement of the SSP scenario. The growth rate of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century under SSP585 is significantly higher than the other two SSP scenarios. The increment of precipitation in the Qilian Mountains mainly comes from the increase in heavy precipitation. (3) The Qilian Mountains will become wetter in the 21st century, especially in the central and eastern regions. The largest increase in precipitation intensity will be observed in the western Qilian Mountains. Additionally, total precipitation will also increase in the middle and end of the 21st century under SSP585. Furthermore, the precipitation increment of the Qilian Mountains will increase with the altitude in the middle and end of the 21st century. This study aims to provide a reference for the changes in extreme precipitation events, glacier mass balance, and water resources in the Qilian Mountains during the 21st century.

Fluctuation of ecological niches and geographic range shifts along chile pepper's domestication gradient.

Domestication is an ongoing well-described process. However, while many have studied the changes domestication causes in plant genetics, few have explored its impact on the portion of the geographic landscape in which the plants exist. Therefore, the goal of this study was to understand how the process of domestication changed the geographic space suitable for chile pepper (Capsicum annuum) in its center of origin (domestication). C. annuum is a major crop species globally whose center of domestication, Mexico, has been well-studied. It provides a unique opportunity to explore the degree to which ranges of different domestication classes diverged and how these ranges might be altered by climate change. To this end, we created ecological niche models for four domestication classes (wild, semiwild, landrace, modern cultivar) based on present climate and future climate scenarios for 2050, 2070, and 2090. Considering present environment, we found substantial overlap in the geographic niches of all the domestication classes. Yet, environmental and geographic aspects of the current ranges did vary among classes. Wild and commercial varieties could grow in desert conditions, while landraces could not. With projections into the future, habitat was lost asymmetrically, with wild, semiwild, and landraces at greater risk of territorial declines than modern cultivars. Further, we identified areas where future suitability overlap between landraces and wilds is expected to be lost. While range expansion is widely associated with domestication, we found little support of a constant niche expansion (either in environmental or geographical space) throughout the domestication gradient in chile peppers in Mexico. Instead, particular domestication transitions resulted in loss, followed by capturing or recapturing environmental or geographic space. The differences in environmental characterization among domestication gradient classes and their future potential range shifts increase the need for conservation efforts to preserve landraces and semiwild genotypes.