The burden of HMPV and influenza associated hospitalizations in adults in New Zealand, 2012-2015.

BACKGROUND: Unlike influenza, information on the burden of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) as a cause of hospitalizations in adults with acute respiratory illness (ARI) is limited. METHODS: We compared the population-based incidence, seasonality, and clinical characteristics of these two viral infections among adults aged 20 years and over with ARI hospitalisations in Auckland, New Zealand, during 2012-2015 through the Southern Hemisphere Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Research and Surveillance (SHIVERS) project. RESULTS: Of the 14,139 ARI hospitalisations, 276 (4.3%) of 6484 tested positive for HMPV and 1342 (19.1%) of 7027 tested positive for influenza. Crude rates of 9.8 (95% CI: 8.7-11.0) HMPV and 47.6 (95% CI: 45.1-50.1) influenza-associated ARI hospitalisations were estimated for every 100,000 adult residents annually. The highest rates for both viruses were in those aged 80 years or older, of Maori or Pacific ethnicity, or living in low socioeconomic status (SES) areas. HMPV infections were more common than influenza in those with chronic medical conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Although HMPV infections accounted for fewer hospitalisations than influenza in adults aged 20 years and over, HMPV-associated ARI hospitalisation rates were higher than influenza in older adults, Maori and Pacific people and those of low SES. This highlighted a need for vaccine/antiviral development.

Hauora Maori - Maori health: a right to equal outcomes in primary care.

BACKGROUND: For more than a century, Maori have experienced poorer health than non-Maori. In 2019 an independent Tribunal found the Government had breached Te Tiriti o Waitangi by "failing to design and administer the current primary health care system to actively address persistent Maori health inequities". Many Maori (44%) have unmet needs for primary care. Seven models of primary care were identified by the funders and the research team, including Maori-owned practices. We hypothesised patient health outcomes for Maori would differ between models of care. METHODS: Cross-sectional primary care data were analysed at 30 September 2018. National datasets were linked to general practices at patient level, to measure associations between practice characteristics and patient health outcomes. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: polypharmacy (≥ 55 years), HbA1c testing, child immunisations, ambulatory sensitive hospitalisations (0-14, 45-64 years) and emergency department attendances. Regressions include only Maori patients, across all models of care. RESULTS: A total of 660,752 Maori patients were enrolled in 924 practices with 124,854 in 65 Maori-owned practices. Maori practices had: no significant association with HbA1c testing, ambulatory sensitive hospitalisations or ED attendances, and a significant association with lower polypharmacy (3.7% points) and lower childhood immunisations (13.4% points). Maori practices had higher rates of cervical smear and cardiovascular risk assessment, lower rates of HbA1c tests, and more nurse (46%) and doctor (8%) time (FTE) with patients. The average Maori practice had 52% Maori patients compared to 12% across all practices. Maori practices enrolled a higher percentage of children and young people, five times more patients in high deprivation areas, and patients with more multimorbidity. More Maori patients lived rurally (21.5% vs 15%), with a greater distance to the nearest ED. Maori patients were more likely to be dispensed antibiotics or tramadol. CONCLUSIONS: Maori practices are an expression of autonomy in the face of enduring health system failure. Apart from lower immunisation rates, health outcomes were not different from other models of care, despite patients having higher health risk profiles. Across all models, primary care need was unmet for many Maori, despite increased clinical input. Funding must support under-resourced Maori practices and ensure accountability for the health outcomes of Maori patients in all models of general practice.

Postdischarge functional outcomes in older patients with acute heart failure in Japan: the Longevity Improvement & Fair Evidence study.

BACKGROUND: The association between care needs level (CNL) at hospitalisation and postdischarge outcomes in older patients with acute heart failure (aHF) has been insufficiently investigated. METHODS: This population-based cohort study was conducted using health insurance claims and CNL data of the Longevity Improvement & Fair Evidence study. Patients aged ≥65 years, discharged after hospitalisation for aHF between April 2014 and March 2022, were identified. CNLs at hospitalisation were classified as no care needs (NCN), support level (SL) and CNL1, CNL2-3 and CNL4-5 based on total estimated daily care time as defined by national standard criteria, and varied on an ordinal scale between SL&CNL1 (low level) to CNL4-5 (fully dependent). The primary outcomes were changes in CNL and death 1 year after discharge, assessed by CNL at hospitalisation using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Of the 17 724 patients included, 7540 (42.5%), 4818 (27.2%), 3267 (18.4%) and 2099 (11.8%) had NCN, SL&CNL1, CNL2-3 and CNL4-5, respectively, at hospitalisation. One year after discharge, 4808 (27.1%), 3243 (18.3%), 2968 (16.7%), 2505 (14.1%) and 4200 (23.7%) patients had NCN, SL&CNL1, CNL2-3, CNL4-5 and death, respectively. Almost all patients' CNLs worsened after discharge. Compared to patients with NCN at hospitalisation, patients with SL&CNL1, CNL2-3 and CNL4-5 had an increased risk of all-cause death 1 year after discharge (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.19 [1.09-1.31], 1.88 [1.71-2.06] and 2.56 [2.31-2.84], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Older patients with aHF and high CNL at hospitalisation had a high risk of all-cause mortality in the year following discharge.

Determinants of hospital readmissions in older people with dementia: a narrative review.

INTRODUCTION: Over 50% of hospitalised older people with dementia have multimorbidity, and are at an increased risk of hospital readmissions within 30 days of their discharge. Between 20-40% of these readmissions may be preventable. Current research focuses on the physical causes of hospital readmissions. However, older people with dementia have additional psychosocial factors that are likely to increase their risk of readmissions. This narrative review aimed to identify psychosocial determinants of hospital readmissions, within the context of known physical factors. METHODS: Electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and PsychInfo were searched from inception until July 2022 and followed up in February 2024. Quantitative and qualitative studies in English including adults aged 65 years and over with dementia, their care workers and informal carers were considered if they investigated hospital readmissions. An inductive approach was adopted to map the determinants of readmissions. Identified themes were described as narrative categories. RESULTS: Seventeen studies including 7,194,878 participants met our inclusion criteria from a total of 6369 articles. Sixteen quantitative studies included observational cohort and randomised controlled trial designs, and one study was qualitative. Ten studies were based in the USA, and one study each from Taiwan, Australia, Canada, Sweden, Japan, Denmark, and The Netherlands. Large hospital and insurance records provided data on over 2 million patients in one American study. Physical determinants included reduced mobility and accumulation of long-term conditions. Psychosocial determinants included inadequate hospital discharge planning, limited interdisciplinary collaboration, socioeconomic inequalities among ethnic minorities, and behavioural and psychological symptoms. Other important psychosocial factors such as loneliness, poverty and mental well-being, were not included in the studies. CONCLUSION: Poorly defined roles and responsibilities of health and social care professionals and poor communication during care transitions, increase the risk of readmission in older people with dementia. These identified psychosocial determinants are likely to significantly contribute to readmissions. However, future research should focus on the understanding of the interaction between a host of psychosocial and physical determinants, and multidisciplinary interventions across care settings to reduce hospital readmissions.

Pandemic phase-related racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 positivity and outcomes among patients presenting to emergency departments during the first two pandemic waves in the USA.

BACKGROUND: In many countries including the USA, the UK and Canada, the impact of COVID-19 on people of colour has been disproportionately high but examination of disparities in patients presenting to ED has been limited. We assessed racial and ethnic differences in COVID-19 positivity and outcomes in patients presenting to EDs in the USA, and the effect of the phase of the pandemic on these outcomes. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of adult patients tested for COVID-19 during, or 14 days prior to, the index ED visit in 2020. Data were obtained from the National Registry of Suspected COVID-19 in Emergency Care network which has data from 155 EDs across 27 US states. Hierarchical models were used to account for clustering by hospital. The outcomes included COVID-19 diagnosis, hospitalisation at index visit, subsequent hospitalisation within 30 days and 30-day mortality. We further stratified the analysis by time period (early phase: March-June 2020; late phase: July-September 2020). RESULTS: Of the 26 111 adult patients, 38% were non-Hispanic White (NHW), 29% Black, 20% Hispanic/Latino, 3% Asian and 10% all others; half were female. The median age was 56 years (IQR 40-69), and 53% were diagnosed with COVID-19; of those, 59% were hospitalised at index visit. Of those discharged from ED, 47% had a subsequent hospitalisation in 30 days. Hispanic/Latino patients had twice (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.3; 95% CI 1.8 to 3.0) the odds of COVID-19 diagnosis than NHW patients, after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Black, Asian and other minority groups also had higher odds of being diagnosed (compared with NHW patients). On stratification, this association was observed in both phases for Hispanic/Latino patients. Hispanic/Latino patients had lower odds of hospitalisation at index visit, but when stratified, this effect was only observed in early phase. Subsequent hospitalisation was more likely in Asian patients (aOR 3.1; 95% CI 1.1 to 8.7) in comparison with NHW patients. Subsequent ED visit was more likely in Blacks and Hispanic/Latino patients in late phase. CONCLUSION: We found significant differences in ED outcomes that are not explained by comorbidity burden. The gap decreased but persisted during the later phase in 2020.

Can acutely ill patients predict their outcomes? A scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: The full impact of an acute illness on subsequent health is seldom explicitly discussed with patients. Patients' estimates of their likely prognosis have been explored in chronic care settings and can contribute to the improvement of clinical outcomes and patient satisfaction. This scoping review aimed to identify studies of acutely ill patients' estimates of their outcomes and potential benefits for their care. METHODS: A search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Google Scholar, using terms related to prognostication and acute care. After removal of duplicates, all articles were assessed for relevance by six investigator pairs; disagreements were resolved by a third investigator. Risk of bias was assessed according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. RESULTS: Our search identified 3265 articles, of which 10 were included. The methods of assessing self-prognostication were very heterogeneous. Patients seem to be able to predict their need for hospital admission in certain settings, but not their length of stay. The severity of their symptoms and the burden of their disease are often overestimated or underestimated by patients. Patients with severe health conditions and their relatives tend to be overoptimistic about the likely outcome. CONCLUSION: The understanding of acutely ill patients of their likely outcomes and benefits of treatment has not been adequately studied and is a major knowledge gap. Limited published literature suggests patients may be able to predict their need for hospital admission. Illness perception may influence help-seeking behaviour, speed of recovery and subsequent quality of life. Knowledge of patients' self-prognosis may enhance communication between patients and their physicians, which improves patient-centred care.

Derivation and validation of a risk-stratification model for patients with probable or proven COVID-19 in EDs: the revised HOME-CoV score.

BACKGROUND: The HOME-CoV (Hospitalisation or Outpatient ManagEment of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection) score is a validated list of uniquely clinical criteria indicating which patients with probable or proven COVID-19 can be treated at home. The aim of this study was to optimise the score to improve its ability to discriminate between patients who do and do not need admission. METHODS: A revised HOME-CoV score was derived using data from a previous prospective multicentre study which evaluated the original Home-CoV score. Patients with proven or probable COVID-19 attending 34 EDs in France, Monaco and Belgium between April and May 2020 were included. The population was split into a derivation and validation sample corresponding to the observational and interventional phases of the original study. The main outcome was non-invasive or invasive ventilation or all-cause death within 7 days following inclusion. Two threshold values were defined using a sensitivity of >0.9 and a specificity of >0.9 to identify low-risk and high-risk patients, respectively. The revised HOME-CoV score was then validated by retrospectively applying it to patients in the same EDs with proven or probable COVID-19 during the interventional phase. The revised HOME-CoV score was also tested against original HOME-CoV, qCSI, qSOFA, CRB65 and SMART-COP in this validation cohort. RESULTS: There were 1696 patients in the derivation cohort, of whom 65 (3.8%) required non-invasive ventilation or mechanical ventilation or died within 7 days and 1304 patients in the validation cohort, of whom 22 (1.7%) had a progression of illness. The revised score included seven clinical criteria. The area under the curve (AUC) was 87.6 (95% CI 84.7 to 90.6). The cut-offs to define low-risk and high-risk patients were <2 and >3, respectively. In the validation cohort, the AUC was 85.8 (95% CI 80.6 to 91.0). A score of <2 qualified 73% of patients as low risk with a sensitivity of 0.77 (0.55-0.92) and a negative predictive value of 0.99 (0.99-1.00). CONCLUSION: The revised HOME-CoV score, which does not require laboratory testing, may allow accurate risk stratification and safely qualify a significant proportion of patients with probable or proven COVID-19 for home treatment.

Global trends in the incidence of hospital admissions for diabetes-related foot disease and amputations: a review of national rates in the 21st century.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetic foot disease (DFD) is a leading cause of hospital admissions and amputations. Global trends in diabetes-related amputations have been previously reviewed, but trends in hospital admissions for multiple other DFD conditions have not. This review analysed the published incidence of hospital admissions for DFD conditions (ulceration, infection, peripheral artery disease [PAD], neuropathy) and diabetes-related amputations (minor and major) in nationally representative populations. METHODS: PubMed and Embase were searched for peer-reviewed publications between 1 January 2001 and 5 May 2022 using the terms 'diabetes', 'DFD', 'amputation', 'incidence' and 'nation'. Search results were screened and publications reporting the incidence of hospital admissions for a DFD condition or a diabetes-related amputation among a population representative of a country were included. Key data were extracted from included publications and initial rates, end rates and relative trends over time summarised using medians (ranges). RESULTS: Of 2527 publications identified, 71 met the eligibility criteria, reporting admission rates for 27 countries (93% high-income countries). Of the included publications, 14 reported on DFD and 66 reported on amputation (nine reported both). The median (range) incidence of admissions per 1000 person-years with diabetes was 16.3 (8.4-36.6) for DFD conditions (5.1 [1.3-7.6] for ulceration; 5.6 [3.8-9.0] for infection; 2.5 [0.9-3.1] for PAD) and 3.1 (1.4-10.3) for amputations (1.2 [0.2-4.2] for major; 1.6 [0.3-4.3] for minor). The proportions of the reported populations with decreasing, stable and increasing admission trends were 80%, 20% and 0% for DFD conditions (50%, 0% and 50% for ulceration; 50%, 17% and 33% for infection; 67%, 0% and 33% for PAD) and 80%, 7% and 13% for amputations (80%, 17% and 3% for major; 52%, 15% and 33% for minor), respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These findings suggest that hospital admission rates for all DFD conditions are considerably higher than those for amputations alone and, thus, the more common practice of reporting admission rates only for amputations may substantially underestimate the burden of DFD. While major amputation rates appear to be largely decreasing, this is not the case for hospital admissions for DFD conditions or minor amputation in many populations. However, true global conclusions are limited because of a lack of consistent definitions used to identify admission rates for DFD conditions and amputations, alongside a lack of data from low- and middle-income countries. We recommend that these areas are addressed in future studies. REGISTRATION: This review was registered in the Open Science Framework database ( https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/4TZFJ ).

Increased acute care utilisation, comorbidities and mortality in adults with haemophilia: A population-based cohort study from 2012 to 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Improvements in treatment strategies have led to increased life expectancy of persons with haemophilia (PWH). Consequently, age-related comorbidities become increasingly relevant. AIM: To evaluate the prevalence of age-related comorbidities, mortality, health service utilisation and predictors of hospitalisation in PWH compared to the general population. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using linked administrative data. Men with haemophilia were identified in Alberta, Canada (2012-2019) with a validated case definition and were age-matched with male population controls. We calculated the prevalence of major comorbidities, all-cause mortality, and examined health service utilisation including Emergency Department visits and hospitalisations. Logistic regression was applied to identify predictors of hospitalisation. RESULTS: We identified 198 and 329 persons with moderately severe haemophilia and mild/moderate, respectively. Moderately severe haemophilia had a higher risk of death (standardised mortality ratio 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-6.3) compared to the general population. PWH had a significantly higher prevalence of hypertension, liver diseases and malignancies than controls. Moderately severe haemophilia was associated with significantly higher rates of hospitalisations (52.5% vs. 14.5%), Emergency Department visits (89.1% vs. 62.7%) and intensive care admissions (8.9% vs. 2.3%). Age > 65 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.8) and presence of multiple comorbidities (aOR 3.9) were significant predictors of hospitalisations among PWH. CONCLUSION: Despite advanced care, haemophilia is associated with higher acute care utilisation than the general population, highlighting the substantial burden of illness on patients and the health care system.

Inequities in COVID-19 Omicron infections and hospitalisations for Maori and Pacific people in Te Manawa Taki Midland region, New Zealand.

COVID-19 impacts population health equity. While mRNA vaccines protect against serious illness and death, little New Zealand (NZ) data exist about the impact of Omicron - and the effectiveness of vaccination - on different population groups. We aim to examine the impact of Omicron on Maori, Pacific, and Other ethnicities and how this interacts with age and vaccination status in the Te Manawa Taki Midland region of NZ. Daily COVID-19 infection and hospitalisation rates (1 February 2022 to 29 June 2022) were calculated for Maori, Pacific, and Other ethnicities for six age bands. A multivariate logistic regression model quantified the effects of ethnicity, age, and vaccination on hospitalisation rates. Per-capita Omicron cases were highest and occurred earliest among Pacific (9 per 1,000) and Maori (5 per 1,000) people and were highest among 12-24-year-olds (7 per 1,000). Hospitalisation was significantly more likely for Maori people (odds ratio (OR) = 2.03), Pacific people (OR = 1.75), over 75-year-olds (OR = 39.22), and unvaccinated people (OR = 4.64). Length of hospitalisation is strongly related to age. COVID-19 vaccination reduces hospitalisations for older individuals and Maori and Pacific populations. Omicron inequitably impacted Maori and Pacific people through higher per-capita infection and hospitalisation rates. Older people are more likely to be hospitalised and for longer.

Is there equity of patient health outcomes across models of general practice in Aotearoa New Zealand? A national cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Primary care in Aotearoa New Zealand is largely delivered by general practices, heavily subsidised by government. Te Tiriti o Waitangi (1840) guarantees equal health outcomes for Maori and non-Maori, but differences are stark and longstanding. Seven models of primary care have evolved. We hypothesised that patient health outcomes would differ between models of care; and that Maori, Pacific peoples and those living in material deprivation would have poorer outcomes from primary care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of patient-level data from national datasets and practices, at 30 September 2018, using multilevel mixed effects regression analyses (patients clustered within practices). Primary outcomes, considered to be measures of unmet need for primary care, were polypharmacy (≥ 65 years), HbA1c testing in adults with diabetes, childhood immunisations (6 months), ambulatory sensitive hospitalisations (0-14, 45-64 years) and emergency department attendances. Explanatory variables adjusted for patient and practice characteristics. Equity, by model of care, ethnicity and deprivation, was assumed if they showed no significant association with patient outcomes. Patient characteristics included: age, ethnicity, deprivation, multi-morbidity, first specialist assessments and practice continuity. Practice characteristics included: size, funding and doctor continuity. Clinical input (consultations and time with nurses and doctors) was considered a measure of practice response. RESULTS: The study included 924 general practices with 4,491,964 enrolled patients. Traditional practices enrolled 73% of the population, but, on average, the proportion of Maori, Pacific and people living with material deprivation was low in any one Traditional practice. Patients with high health needs disproportionately enrolled in Maori, Pacific and Trust/NGO practices. There were multiple associations between models of care and patient health outcomes in fully adjusted regressions. No one model of care out-performed others across all outcomes. Patients with higher health need received more clinical input but this was insufficient to achieve equity in all outcomes. Being a Maori or Pacific patient, or living in material deprivation, across models of care, remained associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Model-level associations with poor patient outcomes suggest inequity in measures that might be used to target investment in primary care.

From pilot to a multi-site trial: refining the Early Detection of Deterioration in Elderly Residents (EDDIE +) intervention.

BACKGROUND: Early Detection of Deterioration in Elderly Residents (EDDIE +) is a multi-modal intervention focused on empowering nursing and personal care workers to identify and proactively manage deterioration of residents living in residential aged care (RAC) homes. Building on successful pilot trials conducted between 2014 and 2017, the intervention was refined for implementation in a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial in 12 RAC homes from March 2021 to May 2022. We report the process used to transition from a small-scale pilot intervention to a multi-site intervention, detailing the intervention to enable future replication. METHODS: The EDDIE + intervention used the integrated Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (i-PARIHS) framework to guide the intervention development and refinement process. We conducted an environmental scan; multi-level context assessments; convened an intervention working group (IWG) to develop the program logic, conducted a sustainability assessment and deconstructed the intervention components into fixed and adaptable elements; and subsequently refined the intervention for trial. RESULTS: The original EDDIE pilot intervention included four components: nurse and personal care worker education; decision support tools; diagnostic equipment; and facilitation and clinical support. Deconstructing the intervention into core components and what could be flexibly tailored to context was essential for refining the intervention and informing future implementation across multiple sites. Intervention elements considered unsustainable were updated and refined to enable their scalability. Refinements included: an enhanced educational component with a greater focus on personal care workers and interactive learning; decision support tools that were based on updated evidence; equipment that aligned with recipient needs and available organisational support; and updated facilitation model with local and external facilitation. CONCLUSION: By using the i-PARIHS framework in the scale-up process, the EDDIE + intervention was tailored to fit the needs of intended recipients and contexts, enabling flexibility for local adaptation. The process of transitioning from a pilot to larger scale implementation in practice is vastly underreported yet vital for better development and implementation of multi-component interventions across multiple sites. We provide an example using an implementation framework and show it can be advantageous to researchers and health practitioners from pilot stage to refinement, through to larger scale implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was prospectively registered with the Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (ACTRN12620000507987, registered 23/04/2020).

A five year descriptive analysis of potentially preventable hospitalisations for Ear, Nose, and Throat conditions in regional Victoria, Australia, from 2015 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Potentially preventable hospitalisations of ear, nose, and throat conditions in the Murray Primary Health Network region have been found to be higher than the state average of Victoria, Australia. This study aimed to examine the association between selected patient-level characteristics and the likelihood of residing in a Murray PHN postcode with higher than expected numbers of potentially preventable ENT hospitalisations. METHODS: Unit record hospital separation data were obtained from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset. Postcodes were classified as having higher than expected numbers of potentially preventable hospitalisations across three subgroups of ENT using indirect standardisation techniques. Differences between patients from 'higher than expected' postcodes and 'other' postcodes with respect to the distribution of demographic and other patient characteristics were determined using chi-squared tests for each ENT subgroup. The results were confirmed by logistic regression analyses using resident of a postcode with higher than expected hospitalisations as the outcome variable. RESULTS: Of the 169 postcodes located in the catchment area, 15 were identified as having higher than expected numbers of upper respiratory tract infection hospitalisations, 14 were identified for acute tonsillitis, and 12 were identified for otitis media. Patients from postcodes with 'higher than expected' hospitalisations for these conditions were more likely than others to be aged between 0 and 9 years, Indigenous, or from a culturally and linguistically diverse background. CONCLUSION: Further investigation of the identified postcodes is warranted to determine access to and utilisation of primary healthcare services in the management of PPH ENT conditions in the region.

How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect inpatient care for children in Germany? An exploratory analysis based on national hospital discharge data.

BACKGROUND: The delivery of health services around the world faced considerable disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic. While this has been discussed for a number of conditions in the adult population, related patterns have been studied less for children. In light of the detrimental effects of the pandemic, particularly for children and young people under the age of 18, it is pivotal to explore this issue further. METHODS: Based on complete national hospital discharge data available via the German National Institute for the Reimbursement of Hospitals (InEK) data browser, we compare the top 30 diagnoses for which children were hospitalised in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. We analyse the development of monthly admissions between January 2019 and December 2022 for three tracers of variable time-sensitivity: acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), appendicitis/appendectomy and tonsillectomy/adenoidectomy. RESULTS: Compared to 2019, total admissions were approximately 20% lower in 2020 and 2021, and 13% lower in 2022. The composition of the most frequent principal diagnoses remained similar across years, although changes in rank were observed. Decreases were observed in 2020 for respiratory and gastrointestinal infections, with cases increasing again in 2021. The number of ALL admissions showed an upward trend and a periodicity prima vista unrelated to pandemic factors. Appendicitis admissions decreased by about 9% in 2020 and a further 8% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, while tonsillectomies/adenoidectomies decreased by more than 40% in 2020 and a further 32% in 2021 before increasing in 2022; for these tracers, monthly changes are in line with pandemic waves. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital care for critical and urgent conditions among patients under the age of 18 was largely upheld in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially at the expense of elective treatments. There is an alignment between observed variations in hospitalisations and pandemic mitigation measures, possibly also reflecting changes in demand. This study highlights the need for comprehensive, intersectoral data that would be necessary to better understand changing demand, unmet need/foregone care and shifts from inpatient to outpatient care, as well as their link to patient outcomes and health care efficiency.

Temperature variability associated with respiratory disease hospitalisations, hospital stays and hospital expenses the warm temperate sub-humid monsoon climate.

OBJECTIVES: The abrupt change of climate has led to an increasing trend of hospitalised patients in recent years. This study aimed to analyse the temperature variability (TV) associated with respiratory disease (RD) hospitalisations, hospital stays and hospital expenses. STUDY DESIGN: The generalized linear model combined with distributed lag non-linear model was used to investigate the association between TV and RD hospitalisations. METHODS: TV was determined by measuring the standard deviation of maximum and minimum temperatures for the current day and the previous 7 days. RD hospitalisations data were obtained from three major tertiary hospitals in Huaibei City, namely, the Huaibei People's Hospital, the Huaibei Hospital Of Traditional Chinese Medicine and the Huaibei Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital. First, using a time series decomposition model, the seasonality and long-term trend of hospitalisations, hospital stays and hospital expenses for RD were explored in this warm temperate sub-humid monsoon climate. Second, robust models were used to analyse the association between TV and RD hospitalisations, hospital stays and hospital expenses. In addition, this study stratified results by sex, age and season. Third, using the attributable fraction (AF) and attributable number (AN), hospitalisations, hospital stays and hospital expenses for RD attributed to TV were quantified. RESULTS: Overall, 0.013% of hospitalisations were attributed to TV0-1 (i.e. TV at the current day and previous 1 day), corresponding to 220 cases, 1603 days of hospital stays and 1,308,000 RMB of hospital expenses. Females were more susceptible to TV than males, and the risk increased with longer exposure (the highest risk was seen at TV0-7 [i.e. TV at the current day and previous 7 days] exposure). Higher AF and AN were observed at ages 0-5 years and ≥65 years. In addition, it was also found that TV was more strongly linked to RD in the cool season. The hot season was positively associated with hospital stays and hospital expenses at TV0-3 to TV0-7 exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to TV increased the risk of hospitalisations, longer hospital stays and higher hospital expenses for RD. The findings suggested that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in the future to protect the health of vulnerable populations.

Role of hospital strain in determining outcomes for people hospitalised with COVID-19 in England.

BACKGROUND: In England, reported COVID-19 mortality rates increased during winter 2020/21 relative to earlier summer and autumn months. This study aimed to examine the association between COVID-19-related hospital bed-strain during this time and patient outcomes. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study using Hospital Episode Statistics data for England. All unique patients aged ≥18 years in England with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who had a completed (discharged alive or died in hospital) hospital stay with an admission date between 1 July 2020 and 28 February 2021 were included. Bed-strain was calculated as the number of beds occupied by patients with COVID-19 divided by the maximum COVID-19 bed occupancy during the study period. Bed-strain was categorised into quartiles for modelling. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome of interest and length of stay a secondary outcome. RESULTS: There were 253 768 unique hospitalised patients with a diagnosis of COVID-19 during a hospital stay. Patient admissions peaked in January 2021 (n=89 047), although the crude mortality rate peaked slightly earlier in December 2020 (26.4%). After adjustment for covariates, the mortality rate in the lowest and highest quartile of bed-strain was 23.6% and 25.3%, respectively (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.17). For the lowest and the highest quartile of bed-strain, adjusted mean length of stay was 13.2 days and 11.6 days, respectively in survivors and was 16.5 days and 12.6 days, respectively in patients who died in hospital. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of bed-strain were associated with higher in-hospital mortality rates, although the effect was relatively modest and may not fully explain increased mortality rates during winter 2020/21 compared with earlier months. Shorter hospital stay during periods of greater strain may partly reflect changes in patient management over time.

Aeromedical retrievals as a measure of potentially preventable hospitalisations and cost comparison with provision of GP-led primary health care in a remote Aboriginal community.

INTRODUCTION: Kowanyama is a very remote Aboriginal community on the Cape York Peninsula of Far North Queensland, Australia. It is among the five most disadvantaged communities in Australia, with a very high burden of disease. It has access to 2.5 days each week of fly-in, fly-out, GP-led primary health care for a population of 1200. All patients requiring higher level care undergo aeromedical retrieval to a bigger centre. A retrospective clinical audit of charts was undertaken assessing aeromedical retrievals from Kowanyama for the year 2019 to assess whether GP access might correlate with retrievals or hospital admissions for potentially preventable conditions and whether it could be cost-effective and improve outcomes to provide the benchmarked staffing of GPs. METHODS: Using a tool made by the authors for this audit, the management and reason for evacuation were assessed against Queensland Health's Primary Clinical Care Manual guidelines, whether the presence of a rural generalist GP would have prevented the need for retrieval, and assessed against accepted Australian (and Canadian) criteria for potentially preventable hospital admissions. Each retrieval was then assessed as 'preventable' or 'not preventable'. The cost of providing benchmark levels of GPs in community was compared with the cost of potentially preventable retrievals. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 89 retrievals of 73 patients. Thirty-nine percent (35) of all retrievals occurred when a doctor was on site. Of preventable retrievals, 33% (18) occurred with a doctor on site and 67% (36) occurred with no doctor on site. All retrievals with a doctor on site resulted in an admission. All immediate discharges (10% (9)) or deaths (1% (1)) were for retrievals without a doctor on site. Sixty-one percent (54) of all retrievals were potentially preventable, with the two most common conditions being pneumonia - non vaccine preventable (18% (9)) and bacterial/unspecified (14% (7)). Thirty-two percent (20) of patients accounted for 52% (46) of retrievals and of these 63% (29) were potentially preventable (compared to 61% overall). For preventable condition retrievals, the mean number of visits to the clinic compared to non-preventable condition retrievals was higher for registered nurse or Aboriginal Health Worker visits (1.24 v 0.93) and lower for doctor visits (0.22 v 0.37). The conservatively calculated costs of retrievals matched the maximum cost of providing benchmark numbers (2.6 full-time equivalents) of rural generalist doctors in a rotating model for the audited community. CONCLUSION: Greater access to GP-led primary health care may lead to fewer retrievals/hospital admissions for potentially preventable conditions. It is likely that some preventable condition retrievals might be avoided if full coverage with benchmarked numbers of rural generalist GPs in a GP-led primary health team was provided in remote communities. This may be cost-effective and improve patient outcomes, and should be further explored.

High ambient temperature and child emergency and hospital visits in New York City.

BACKGROUND: Emerging literature has documented heat-related impacts on child health, yet few studies have evaluated the effects of heat among children of different age groups and comparing emergency department (ED) and hospitalisation risks. OBJECTIVES: To examine the differing associations between high ambient temperatures and risk of ED visits and hospitalisations among children by age group in New York City (NYC). METHODS: We used New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) data on children aged 0-18 years admitted to NYC EDs (n = 2,252,550) and hospitals (n = 228,006) during the warm months (May-September) between 2005 and 2011. Using a time-stratified, case-crossover design, we estimated the risk of ED visits and hospitalisations associated with daily maximum temperature (Tmax) for children of all ages and by age group. RESULTS: The average Tmax over the study period was 80.3°F (range 50°, 104°F). Tmax conferred the greatest risk of ED visits for children aged 0-4, with a 6-day cumulative excess risk of 2.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7, 3.0) per 13°F (ie interquartile range) increase in temperature. Children and adolescents 5-12 years (0.8%, 95% CI 0.1, 1.6) and 13-18 years (1.4%, 95% CI 0.6, 2.3) are also sensitive to heat. For hospitalisations, only adolescents 13-18 years had increased heat-related risk, with a cumulative excess risk of 7.9% (95% CI 2.0, 14.2) per 13°F increase in Tmax over 85°F. CONCLUSIONS: This urban study in NYC reinforces that young children are particularly vulnerable to effects of heat, but also demonstrates the sensitivity of older children and adolescents as well. These findings underscore the importance of focussing on children and adolescents in targeting heat illness prevention and emergency response activities, especially as global temperatures continue to rise.

Maternal morbidity and mortality: an iceberg phenomenon.

OBJECTIVE: To apply the iceberg model, quantifying absolute and relative incidence, to the four main causes of maternal morbidity and mortality in Ireland: haemorrhage, hypertension, sepsis and thrombosis. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of national data on maternal morbidity and mortality. SETTING: Republic of Ireland. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: Approximately 715 000 maternities, 1 200 000 maternal hospitalisations, 2138 cases of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) and 54 maternal deaths. METHODS: Incidence rates and case-fatality ratios were calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Maternal death, SMM and hospitalisation. RESULTS: At the 'tip of the iceberg', the incidence of maternal death per 10 000 maternities was 0.09 (95% CI 0.03-0.20) due to thrombosis and 0.03 (95% CI 0-0.11) due to haemorrhage, hypertension disorders or sepsis. For one death due to thrombosis there were 35 cases of pulmonary embolism and 257 thrombosis hospitalisations. For one death due to eclampsia, there were 58 eclampsia cases, 13 040 hospitalisations with pre-existing hypertension and 40 781 hospitalisations with gestational hypertension. For one death due to pregnancy-related sepsis, there were 92 cases of septicaemic shock and 9005 hospitalisations with obstetric sepsis. For one maternal death due to haemorrhage, there were 1029 cases of major obstetric haemorrhage and 53 715 maternal hospitalisations with haemorrhage. For every 100 maternities, there were approximately 16 hospitalisations associated with haemorrhage, 12 associated with hypertension disorders, three with sepsis and 0.2 with thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS: Haemorrhage and hypertension disorders are leading causes of maternal morbidity in Ireland but they have very low case fatality. This indicates that these morbidities are managed effectively but their prevention requires more focus. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Study shows that haemorrhage and hypertension are main causes of #maternalmorbidity in Ireland. Timely interventions for #maternalhealth and focus on prevention of severe and non-severe morbidities are needed. @NPEC #maternityservices #clinicalaudit #qualityimprovement.

A mirror-image analysis of psychiatric hospitalisations among people with severe mental illness using Independent Supported Housing.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the effectiveness of Independent Supported Housing (ISH) for non-homeless people with severe mental illness primarily comes from observational cohort studies, which have high risk of bias due to confounding by time-invariant sample characteristics. The present study proposes an alternative study design known from pharmacology to overcome this bias and strengthen evidence. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective mirror-image analysis with medical records of 144 ISH service users to assess the effectiveness of ISH in reducing the number and duration of hospitalisations. Outcomes occurring in equal periods before and during ISH utilisation were compared for every ISH user. Differences between the periods were tested with incidence rate ratios (IRR). RESULTS: Included service users were on average 38.2 years old, female (54%) and predominately had an affective (28.5%) or a schizophrenic or psychotic (22.9%) disorder with ISH utilisation days ranging from 36-960. Fewer admissions (IRR = 0.41, 95%-CI 0.27-0.64) and fewer person-days hospitalised (IRR = 0.38, 95%-CI 0.35-0.41) were observed during ISH utilisation compared to prior to their ISH utilisation. While the reduction in psychiatric admissions may be somewhat confounded by time-variant characteristics, the substantial reduction in hospitalised bed-bays represents at least partially an intervention effect. CONCLUSIONS: The mirror-image study design allowed for a cost-effective investigation of ISH effectiveness in reducing hospitalisation without confounding by time-invariant sample characteristics. We provide recommendations for the design's application and suggest further research with larger samples.