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We investigate natural selection on polygenic scores in the contemporary US, using the Health and Retirement Study. Across three generations, scores which correlate negatively (positively) with education are selected for (against). However, results only partially support the economic theory of fertility as an explanation for natural selection. The theory predicts that selection coefficients should be stronger among low-income, less educated, unmarried and younger parents, but these predictions are only half borne out: coefficients are larger only among low-income parents and unmarried parents. We also estimate effect sizes corrected for noise in the polygenic scores. Selection for some health traits is similar in magnitude to that for cognitive traits.
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Herança Multifatorial , Seleção Genética , Humanos , Seleção Genética/genética , Estados Unidos , Masculino , Feminino , Herança Multifatorial/genética , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Escolaridade , Fertilidade/genética , Modelos GenéticosRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: No investigation of each nation's contribution to knowledge production and human capital in surgery currently exists. Previous studies explored country-level research productivity only in few surgical subspecialties. To identify current and future leaders in surgery research, we conduct a retrospective observational study of each country's human capital and research productivity. METHODS: A web-scraping algorithm was deployed on PubMed to retrieve information on the first and senior author of every publication in all PubMed-indexed surgery outlets-a total of 388 journals-between 2010 and 2022, according to the SCImago classification. Each country's human capital is proxied by the number of first and senior authors. RESULTS: A total of 665,668 publications from 110 countries were reviewed. The number of publications rises over time. The United States represents 30.78% and 31.32% of global publications based on first and senior authors, respectively. Other leading contributors include the United Kingdom (5.57% and 5.69% of global first and senior author publications, respectively), China (8.84% and 8.74%), Japan (7.14% and 7.10%), and Italy (4.54% and 4.46%). The number of publications per 100K people ranges between 0.04 and 86.01, suggesting widely varying levels of research productivity relative to the population. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the US dominance in surgery research. Countries with a higher share of first or senior authors may have greater capacity to expand their future research output. As big data research expands, we expect studies deploying artificial intelligence methodologies, such as web scraping, on data repositories to guide healthcare provision and health policy decisions to become mainstream.
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Despite a growing interest in the impacts of prenatal factors on adulthood quality of life, economists have not estimated the income effects of sunlight exposures by mothers during pregnancy. This paper estimates such effects using data from China General Social Survey and China National Meteorological Data Service Center. The results show that the income effects of prenatal sunlight exposure in the second trimester are significantly positive. The effects differ for individuals born in different months and the effects are larger for female employees, older employees, those born in rural areas, in the pre-reform period, or whose mothers are less-educated. Finally, we investigate the possible mechanisms via the human capital pathway, discovering that fetuses with longer sunlight exposure in the second trimester are healthier and do more exercises in adulthood. It is suggested that families, communities, policymakers should pay attention to prenatal sunlight exposure, especially for pregnant women in the developing world who are less educated or live in rural areas.
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As the world struggles with pressing issues like climate change and sustainable development, affecting health outcomes and environmental quality, the Nordic regionsare at the forefront of major global challenges. This paper investigates the role of human capital, renewable energy use, tourism, natural resources, and economic growth in shaping life in the Nordic region i.e., Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Iceland).Utilizing panel data spanning from 1990 to 2020, the Driscoll and Kraay standard error (DSK) technique is employed to analyze this intricate interplay. The study reveals that in the Nordic context, sustainable economic growth, bolstered by investments in human capital and the widespread acceptance of renewable energy sources, has been positively associated with increased life expectancies. Furthermore, prudent management of natural resources has helped mitigate adverse health effects related to depletion, maintaining environmental and public health standards. The thriving tourism industry has also been shown to influence lifespan in this region positively. On the contrary, the empirical finding contended that an adverse correlation exists between carbon emissions and LEX. This research underscores the importance of a comprehensive and balanced approach that considers economic development, sustainable development, and public health in pursuing longer and healthier lives, providing valuable insights for policymakers and regions seeking to replicate these positive outcomes.The findings of this study are both conceptually reliable and empirically robust, providing important insights for the formulation of environmental and health policy.
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Desenvolvimento Econômico , Expectativa de Vida , Energia Renovável , Turismo , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , Países Escandinavos e Nórdicos , Humanos , Energia Renovável/economia , Desenvolvimento SustentávelRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Germany has the highest per capita health care spending among EU member states, but its hospitals face pressure to generate profits independently due to the government's withdrawal of investment cost coverage. The diagnosis related groups (DRG) payment system was implemented to address the cost issue, challenging hospital physicians to provide services within predefined prices and an economic target corridor to reduce costs. This study examines the extent of cost awareness among medical personnel in German hospitals and its influencing factors. METHODS: We developed an online survey in which participants across all specialties in hospitals estimated the prices in euros of four common interventions and answered questions about their human capital and perceived stress on the workplace. As a measure of cost awareness, we used the probability of estimating the prices correctly within a reasonable margin. We employed logit logistic regression estimators to identify influencing factors in a sample of 86 participants. RESULTS: The results revealed that most of the respondents were unaware of the costs of common interventions. General human capital, acquired through prior education, and job-specific human capital had no influence on cost awareness, whereas domain-specific human capital, that is, gaining economic knowledge based on self-interest, had a positive nonlinear effect on cost awareness. Furthermore, an increased stress level negatively influenced cost awareness. CONCLUSIONS: This paper is the first of its kind for the German health care sector that contributes responses to the question whether health care professionals in German hospitals have cost awareness and if not, what reasons lie behind this lack of knowledge. Our findings show that the cost awareness desired by the introduction of the DRG system has yet to be achieved by medical personnel.
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Grupos Diagnósticos Relacionados , Médicos , Humanos , Custos Hospitalares , Hospitais , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
China's low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure-based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong-especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called "productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio" can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged.
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Fertilidade/fisiologia , Dinâmica Populacional/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Coeficiente de Natalidade , Criança , Pré-Escolar , China , Demografia/estatística & dados numéricos , Escolaridade , Feminino , Previsões , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Classe Social , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Human capital, broadly defined as the skills acquired through formal education, is acknowledged as one of the key drivers of economic growth and social development. However, its measurement for the working-age populations, on a global scale and over time, is still unsatisfactory. Most indicators either only consider the quantity dimension of education and disregard the actual skills or are demographically inconsistent by applying the skills of the young cohorts in school to represent the skills of the working-age population at the same time. In the case of rapidly expanding or changing school systems, this assumption is untenable. However, an increasing number of countries have started to assess the literacy skills of their adult populations by age and sex directly. Drawing on this literacy data, and by using demographic backprojection and statistical estimation techniques, we here present a demographically consistent indicator for adult literacy skills, the skills in literacy adjusted mean years of schooling (SLAMYS). The measure is given for the population aged 20 to 64 in 185 countries and for the period 1970 to 2015. Compared to the conventional mean years of schooling (MYS)-which has strongly increased for most countries over the past decades, and in particular among poor countries-the trends in SLAMYS exhibit a widening global skills gap between low- and high-performing countries.
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Demografia/estatística & dados numéricos , Países Desenvolvidos/estatística & dados numéricos , Países em Desenvolvimento/estatística & dados numéricos , Alfabetização/tendências , Adulto , Países Desenvolvidos/economia , Países em Desenvolvimento/economia , Emprego/tendências , Feminino , Humanos , Renda/tendências , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Instituições Acadêmicas/tendênciasRESUMO
This paper presents the first evidence of the causal relationship between adult children's schooling and changes in parental health in the short and long term. By using supply-side variation in schooling as an instrument for adult children's education and a representative dataset for rural China, we find that adult children' education has a positive influence on the long-term changes in parental health, with limited evidence of any short-term effect. Our results remain consistent after a variety of sensitivity tests. The heterogeneous analyses show differences in socio-economic status and gender, with low-educated parents and mothers being the primary beneficiaries of children's schooling. Potential mechanisms for the long-term effects of adult children's education on changes in parental health include better chronic disease management, improved access to health, sanitation, and clean fuel facilities, improved psychological well-being, and reduced smoking behaviours.
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Filhos Adultos , Pais , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Pais/psicologia , Escolaridade , Mães , ChinaRESUMO
AIM: This study aims to investigate associations of formal childcare with maternal and child outcomes in a large sample of adolescent mothers. BACKGROUND: Forty percent of adolescent girls in Africa are mothers. Increasing evidence shows positive impacts of formal childcare use for adult women, but no known studies in the Global South examine associations for adolescent mothers and their children. METHODS: We interviewed 1046 adolescent mothers and completed developmental assessments with their children (n = 1139) in South Africa's Eastern Cape between 2017 and 2019. Questionnaires measured childcare use, maternal and child outcomes and socio-demographic background variables. Using cross-sectional data, associations between formal childcare use and outcomes were estimated in multivariate multi-level analyses that accounted for individual-level and family-level clustering. RESULTS: Childcare use was associated with higher odds of being in education or employment (AOR: 4.01, 95% CIs: 2.59-6.21, p < .001), grade promotion (AOR: 2.08, 95% CIs: 1.42-3.05, p < .001) and positive future ideation (AOR: 1.58, 95% CIs: 1.01-2.49, p = .047) but no differences in mental health. Childcare use was also associated with better parenting on all measures: positive parenting (AOR: 1.66, 95% CIs: 1.16-2.38, p = .006), better parental limit-setting (AOR: 2.00, 95% CIs: 1.37-2.93, p < .001) and better positive discipline (AOR: 1.77, 95% CIs: 1.21-2.59, p = .003). For the children, there were no differences in temperament or illness, but a significant interaction showed stronger associations between childcare use and better cognitive, language and motor scores with increasing child age (AOR: 5.04, 95% CIs: 1.59-15.96, p = .006). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent mothers might benefit substantially from formal childcare, but causal links need to be explored further. Childcare use was also associated with improved parenting and better child development over time, suggesting positive pathways for children. At an average of $9 per month, childcare provisions for adolescent mothers may offer low-cost opportunities to achieve high returns on health and human capital outcomes in Sub-Saharan African contexts.
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Mães Adolescentes , Cuidado da Criança , Criança , Adulto , Adolescente , Humanos , Feminino , Estudos Transversais , África do Sul , Mães/psicologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Effective prevention could protect the health of the workforce, save human capital loss, and maintain employee productivity as well as economic growth. METHODS: Using real-world data of patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and lung cancer, we multiplied their lifetime survival functions with employment ratios and working salaries to estimate the lifetime employment durations and earnings. They were compared with corresponding age-, sex-, and calendar year-matched referents to assess the differences in loss of lifetime employment duration and earnings. From 2000 to 2017, 83,358 patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) were associated with 32-66% lifetime productivity losses. Similarly, we collected 24,904 incident cases of lung adenocarcinoma during 2011-2018 and estimated the potential savings in human capital due to early detection. Based on the evolving trends of ESKD incidence rates in Taiwan, we calculated the lifetime human capital losses of ESKD patients in GDP (gross domestic product) percentages during 2000-2020. RESULTS: The aggregate lifetime productivity losses of ESKD in terms of GDP% varied between 0.000398% and 0.01% for male patients and between 0.0001% and 0.009% for female patients. The younger the patients, the bigger the losses in GDP%. Similarly, early detection of lung adenocarcinoma saved lives and productivity to some extent. CONCLUSIONS: Successful prevention of catastrophic illnesses at early stages would save the lifetime employment duration and productivity of the workforce. Future reform on the NHI could consider closer coordination between public health and healthcare organizations, focusing on effective prevention of diseases and complications to save productivity loss.
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Green development is main direction of high-quality economic development in China. Urbanisation and human capital (HC) are important factors affecting green development. This study examines effects of urbanisation and HC on green total factor productivity (GTFP) using least squares dummy variable model, based on provincial data in China from 2001 to 2019. This study then explored impact of urbanisation on GTFP through HC (educated HC, healthy HC, and HC structure), adopting mediating effect and threshold effect model. The results showed that urbanisation and three types of HC promote GTFP in China and coastal region. In inland region, urbanisation has insignificant impact on GTFP, while educated HC and HC structure improve it. The mediating analysis revealed that educated and healthy HC in China and coastal region enhance promotion effect of urbanisation on GTFP, whereas HC structure hinders it. In inland region, only healthy HC stimulates promotion effect of urbanisation on GTFP. Considering threshold effect of educated and healthy HC, promotion effect of urbanisation on GTFP is weaker than threshold value; but effect is stronger above threshold value. The promotion effect of urbanisation on GTFP is stronger when value of HC structure is below the threshold, while effect is weakened as value exceeds threshold value. Policy implications are documented to promote urbanisation in a differentiated manner, increase investment in HC, and strengthen coordination between urbanisation and HC.
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Urbanização , Humanos , China , Desenvolvimento Econômico , EficiênciaRESUMO
Although the literature predominantly emphasises the crucial role of technological innovation in alleviating resource dependence, limited attention has been given to the pivotal role of capital in driving such innovation. As a critical factor in technological advancements and productivity enhancement, venture capital has a substantial function in the utilisation of resources and the development of sustainable energy sources. Drawing upon panel data from 30 provinces in China, this study explores how venture capital and resource dependence are interrelated. Our research reveals that venture capital effectively mitigates regional resource dependence by facilitating increased investment in innovation channels. However, the weakening of regional human resources mitigates venture capital's diminishing impacts on resource dependence. These findings provide valuable insights for countries seeking to reduce their dependence on natural resources and achieve long-term economic sustainability.
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Investimentos em Saúde , Recursos Naturais , Humanos , China , Fontes Geradoras de Energia , Invenções , Desenvolvimento EconômicoRESUMO
Economists use micro-based and macro-based approaches to assess the macroeconomic return to population health. The macro-based approach tends to yield estimates that are either negative and close to zero or positive and an order of magnitude larger than the range of estimates derived from the micro-based approach. This presents a micro-macro puzzle regarding the macroeconomic return to health. We reconcile the two approaches by controlling for the indirect effects of health on income per capita, which macro-based approaches usually include but micro-based approaches deliberately omit when isolating the direct income effects of health. Our results show that the macroeconomic return to health lies in the range of plausible microeconomic estimates, demonstrating that both approaches are in fact consistent with one another.
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The research investigates the relationship between intelligence quotient (IQ) and environmental degradation, aiming to understand how cognitive abilities influence environmental outcomes across different nations and time periods. The objective is to examine the impact of intelligence quotient (IQ) on environmental indicators such as carbon emissions, ecological demand, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), seeking insights to inform environmental policy and stewardship. The study utilizes statistical techniques including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS), and Iteratively Weighted Least Squares (IWLS) to analyze data from 147 nations over the years 2000-2017. These methods are applied to explore the relationship between IQ and environmental metrics while considering other relevant variables. The findings reveal unexpected positive associations between human intelligence quotient and carbon emissions, as well as ecological demand, challenging conventional notions of "delay discounting." Additionally, variations in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis are identified across different pollutants, highlighting the roles of governance and international commitments in mitigating emissions. The study concludes by advocating for the adoption of a "delay discounting culture" to address environmental challenges effectively. It underscores the complex interactions between intelligence, governance, and population dynamics in shaping environmental outcomes, emphasizing the need for targeted policies to achieve sustainability objectives.
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Inteligência , Humanos , Política Ambiental , Conservação dos Recursos NaturaisRESUMO
Amidst the pursuit of sustainable development and economic prosperity, there has been growing criticism directed towards traditional metrics such as GDP because of their narrow focus on societal well-being and environmental considerations. Therefore, our study shifts its focus from GDP to a more comprehensive measure of wealth, known as inclusive wealth. Our objective is to investigate how technology contributes to the advancement of inclusive wealth encompassing produced, natural, and human capital. We centred our analysis on the top seven emerging economies (E-7) and utilized data from the period of 1998-2022. Employing Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS), we develop four distinct models to examine the impact of technology on its various components and overall inclusive wealth. We also checked the robustness of our results by employing Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model. Our findings reveal that technological advancement has a positive effect on each component of inclusive wealth, including produced capital, human capital and natural capital. Additionally, our results indicate a favourable impact of technological progress on overall inclusive wealth. These results emphasize the importance of incorporating technology into strategies for sustainable development and inclusive wealth.
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We estimate associations between foundational cognitive skills (inhibitory control, working memory, long-term memory, and implicit learning) measured at age 12 and educational outcomes measured at ages 15 and 19-20 in Ethiopia and Peru, using the Young Lives data. The estimates adjust for rich sets of controls and include measurements of children's baseline abilities. For a subset of the outcomes, we exploit within-household variation. Working memory and long-term memory are consistently and positively associated with subsequent domain-specific cognitive achievement tests (measuring specifically numeracy, vocabulary and literacy achievement) in both countries, university enrolment in Peru (long-term memory) and lower secondary-school completion in Ethiopia (working memory). Inhibitory control predicts subsequent math-test scores in both countries, grade attainment (Ethiopia), and university enrolment (Peru). Value-added estimates show that these skills play roles during adolescence, with the memory-related skills predicting higher domain-specific test scores (Peru and Ethiopia) and grade attainment (Ethiopia), while inhibitory control has associations with math (both countries). These results provide additional evidence to justify the importance of promoting investments in cognitive skills throughout childhood and adolescence, and elucidate how such investments impact educational achievements.
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It is well known that malaria has serious adverse effects on humans. Yet, little is known as to how dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), which is still used to control malaria, may affect human socioeconomic outcomes in the long run. Utilizing the large-scale indoor residual spraying of low-dose DDT in Taiwan in the 1950s, we estimated the long-term effects of low-dose DDT exposure in early childhood on education, marriage and employment in adulthood. Our identification hinges on the unexpected extension of DDT spraying after malaria had already been largely brought under control. We found that even at a very low dosage, DDT exposure still resulted in discernible negative effects on education and marriage. For employment, although no effect on the probability of working was detected, people exposed to more sprayings in childhood were more likely to work in the agricultural sector that typically requires less human capital.
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Inseticidas , Malária , Humanos , Pré-Escolar , DDT/toxicidade , DDT/análise , Inseticidas/toxicidade , Inseticidas/análise , Casamento , Controle de Mosquitos/métodos , Malária/epidemiologia , EmpregoRESUMO
We study exposure to grading bias and provide novel evidence of its impact on mental health. Grading bias, which we interpret as over-grading, is constructed as the residual of final upper secondary school grades having controlled for results in a standardized test, itself not subject to grading leniency. Grading bias is further isolated by considering only within-school variation in over-grading and controlling for prior grades and school production. Using Swedish individual-level register data for individuals graduating from upper secondary school in the years 2001-2004, we show that over-grading has substantial significant protective impacts on the mental health of young adults, but only among female students. That grades themselves, independent of knowledge, substantially impact the production of health highlights an important health production mechanism, and implies that any changes to the design of grading systems must consider these wider health implications.
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Avaliação Educacional , Saúde Mental , Humanos , Feminino , Adulto Jovem , Avaliação Educacional/métodos , Estudantes , Instituições Acadêmicas , Coleta de DadosRESUMO
Using Swedish data on a cohort born in 1953, interviewed in 1966 (age 13), and followed with register data until 2018 (age 65), this study shows that one more year of schooling predicts a 17% lower risk of early mortality. Addressing concerns of potential selection bias, the mortality inequality by educational attainment persists when extensive controls are included in the regression. Adding information on background health, gender, socioeconomic variables, as well as adolescents' early educational plans, cognitive ability, and time preferences, only result in a 2-percentage point change in the mortality risk by years of education. Even when adolescents' applications to upper-secondary school and years 6 and 9 grades are controlled for, completion of upper-secondary and university education remain strong predictors of future health. Yet, the study also finds that the measure of future health matters for the stability of the results.
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Sucesso Acadêmico , Instituições Acadêmicas , Adolescente , Humanos , Idoso , Escolaridade , Cognição , SuéciaRESUMO
This paper re-examines a well-established hypothesis postulating that life expectancy augments incentives for human capital accumulation, leading to global income differences. A major distinguishing feature of the current study is to estimate heterogeneous panel data models under a common factor framework, which explicitly accounts for parameter heterogeneity, unobserved common factors (UCFs), and variables' non-stationarity. In sharp contrast to most previous studies, I find that the impact of health improvements on human capital accumulation turns out to be imprecisely estimated at conventionally accepted levels of statistical significance. I demonstrate that conventional estimates of the educational returns to rising longevity are derived from estimating misspecified models at least partially due to parameter heterogeneity and the presence of UCFs.