Early Introduction and Rise of the Omicron Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variant in Highly Vaccinated University Populations.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is highly transmissible in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The dynamics that govern its establishment and propensity toward fixation (reaching 100% frequency in the SARS-CoV-2 population) in communities remain unknown. Here, we describe the dynamics of Omicron at 3 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the greater Boston area. METHODS: We use diagnostic and variant-specifying molecular assays and epidemiological analytical approaches to describe the rapid dominance of Omicron following its introduction into 3 IHEs with asymptomatic surveillance programs. RESULTS: We show that the establishment of Omicron at IHEs precedes that of the state and region and that the time to fixation is shorter at IHEs (9.5-12.5 days) than in the state (14.8 days) or region. We show that the trajectory of Omicron fixation among university employees resembles that of students, with a 2- to 3-day delay. Finally, we compare cycle threshold values in Omicron vs Delta variant cases on college campuses and identify lower viral loads among college affiliates who harbor Omicron infections. CONCLUSIONS: We document the rapid takeover of the Omicron variant at IHEs, reaching near-fixation within the span of 9.5-12.5 days despite lower viral loads, on average, than the previously dominant Delta variant. These findings highlight the transmissibility of Omicron, its propensity to rapidly dominate small populations, and the ability of robust asymptomatic surveillance programs to offer early insights into the dynamics of pathogen arrival and spread.

Wastewater Surveillance for Infectious Disease: A Systematic Review.

Wastewater surveillance for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been shown to be a valuable source of information regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmission and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Although the method has been used for several decades to track other infectious diseases, there has not been a comprehensive review outlining all of the pathogens that have been surveilled through wastewater. Herein we identify the infectious diseases that have been previously studied via wastewater surveillance prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Infectious diseases and pathogens were identified in 100 studies of wastewater surveillance across 38 countries, as were themes of how wastewater surveillance and other measures of disease transmission were linked. Twenty-five separate pathogen families were identified in the included studies, with the majority of studies examining pathogens from the family Picornaviridae, including polio and nonpolio enteroviruses. Most studies of wastewater surveillance did not link what was found in the wastewater to other measures of disease transmission. Among those studies that did, the value reported varied by study. Wastewater surveillance should be considered as a potential public health tool for many infectious diseases. Wastewater surveillance studies can be improved by incorporating other measures of disease transmission at the population-level including disease incidence and hospitalizations.

Open-source environmental data as an alternative to snail surveys to assess schistosomiasis risk in areas approaching elimination.

BACKGROUND: Although the presence of intermediate snails is a necessary condition for local schistosomiasis transmission to occur, using them as surveillance targets in areas approaching elimination is challenging because the patchy and dynamic quality of snail host habitats makes collecting and testing snails labor-intensive. Meanwhile, geospatial analyses that rely on remotely sensed data are becoming popular tools for identifying environmental conditions that contribute to pathogen emergence and persistence. METHODS: In this study, we assessed whether open-source environmental data can be used to predict the presence of human Schistosoma japonicum infections among households with a similar or improved degree of accuracy compared to prediction models developed using data from comprehensive snail surveys. To do this, we used infection data collected from rural communities in Southwestern China in 2016 to develop and compare the predictive performance of two Random Forest machine learning models: one built using snail survey data, and one using open-source environmental data. RESULTS: The environmental data models outperformed the snail data models in predicting household S. japonicum infection with an estimated accuracy and Cohen's kappa value of 0.89 and 0.49, respectively, in the environmental model, compared to an accuracy and kappa of 0.86 and 0.37 for the snail model. The Normalized Difference in Water Index (an indicator of surface water presence) within half to one kilometer of the home and the distance from the home to the nearest road were among the top performing predictors in our final model. Homes were more likely to have infected residents if they were further from roads, or nearer to waterways. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that in low-transmission environments, leveraging open-source environmental data can yield more accurate identification of pockets of human infection than using snail surveys. Furthermore, the variable importance measures from our models point to aspects of the local environment that may indicate increased risk of schistosomiasis. For example, households were more likely to have infected residents if they were further from roads or were surrounded by more surface water, highlighting areas to target in future surveillance and control efforts.

Enhancing Respiratory Disease Surveillance to Detect COVID-19 in Shelters for Displaced Persons, Thailand-Myanmar Border, 2020-2021.

We developed surveillance guidance for COVID-19 in 9 temporary camps for displaced persons along the Thailand-Myanmar border. Arrangements were made for testing of persons presenting with acute respiratory infection, influenza-like illness, or who met the Thailand national COVID-19 Person Under Investigation case definition. In addition, testing was performed for persons who had traveled outside of the camps in outbreak-affected areas or who departed Thailand as resettling refugees. During the first 18 months of surveillance, May 2020-October 2021, a total of 6,190 specimens were tested, and 15 outbreaks (i.e., >1 confirmed COVID-19 cases) were detected in 7 camps. Of those, 5 outbreaks were limited to a single case. Outbreaks during the Delta variant surge were particularly challenging to control. Adapting and implementing COVID-19 surveillance measures in the camp setting were successful in detecting COVID-19 outbreaks and preventing widespread disease during the initial phase of the pandemic in Thailand.

Preventing COVID-19 outbreaks through surveillance testing in healthcare facilities: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance testing within healthcare facilities provides an opportunity to prevent severe outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the quantitative impact of different available surveillance strategies and their potential to decrease the frequency of outbreaks are not well-understood. METHODS: We establish an individual-based model representative of a mental health hospital yielding generalizable results. Attributes and features of this facility were derived from a prototypical hospital, which provides psychiatric, psychosomatic and psychotherapeutic treatment. We estimate the relative reduction of outbreak probability for three test strategies (entry test, once-weekly test and twice-weekly test) relative to a symptom-based baseline strategy. Based on our findings, we propose determinants of successful surveillance measures. RESULTS: Entry Testing reduced the outbreak probability by 26%, additionally testing once or twice weekly reduced the outbreak probability by 49% or 67% respectively. We found that fast diagnostic test results and adequate compliance of the clinic population are mandatory for conducting effective surveillance. The robustness of these results towards uncertainties is demonstrated via comprehensive sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that active testing in mental health hospitals and similar facilities considerably reduces the number of COVID-19 outbreaks compared to symptom-based surveillance only.

Effectiveness and use of reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction point of care testing in a large-scale COVID-19 surveillance system.

BACKGROUND: Rapid COVID-19 testing platforms can identify infected individuals at the point of care (POC), allowing immediate isolation of infected individuals and reducing the risk of transmission. While lab-based nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) is often considered the gold standard to detect SARS-CoV-2 in the community, results typically take 2-7 days to return, rendering POC testing a critical diagnostic tool for infection control. The National Football League (NFL) and NFL Players Association deployed a new POC testing strategy using a newly available reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) rapid test during the 2020 season, and evaluated diagnostic effectiveness compared to other available devices using real-world population surveillance data. METHODS: RT-PCR POC test results were compared to NAAT results from same-day samples by calculation of positive and negative concordance. Sensitivity analyses were performed for three subgroups: (1) individuals symptomatic at time of positive test; (2) individuals tested during the pilot phase of rollout; and (3) individuals tested daily. RESULTS: Among 4989 same-day POC/NAAT pairs, 4957 (99.4%) were concordant, with 93.1% positive concordance and 99.6% negative concordance. Based on adjudicated case status, the false negative rate was 0.2% and false positive rate was 2.9%. In 43 instances, the immediate turnaround of results by POC allowed isolation of infected individuals 1 day sooner than lab-based testing. Positive/negative concordance in sensitivity analyses were relatively stable. CONCLUSION: RT-PCR POC testing provided timely results that were highly concordant with lab-based NAAT in population surveillance. Expanded use of effective RT-PCR POC can enable rapid isolation of infected individuals and reduce COVID-19 infection in the community.

Antimicrobial resistance of enteric pathogens in the Military Health System, 2009 - 2019.

BACKGROUND: Acute diarrhea (AD) can have significant impacts on military troop readiness. Medical providers must understand current trends of enteropathogen antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in service members (SMs) to inform proper, timely treatment options. However, little is known of enteric pathogen profiles across the Military Health System (MHS). The primary objectives of this study were to identify gaps in enteric pathogen surveillance within the MHS, describe the epidemiology of AMR in enteric pathogens, and identify trends across the MHS both within the Continental United States (CONUS) and outside of the Continental United States (OCONUS). METHODS: Health Level 7 (HL7)-formatted laboratory data were queried for all specimens where Salmonella, Shigella, and Campylobacter species, as well as Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) (STEC) were isolated and certified between 1 January 2009 - 31 December 2019. Antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST) results were queried and summarized where available. Descriptive statistics were calculated for each organism by specimen source, year, and susceptibility testing availability. RESULTS: Among a total of 13,852 enteric bacterial isolates, 11,877 (86%) were submitted from CONUS locations. Out of 1479 Shigella spp. and 6755 Salmonella spp. isolates, 1221 (83%) and 5019 (74%), respectively, reported any susceptibility results through the MHS. Overall, only 15% of STEC and 4% of Campylobacter spp. specimens had AST results available. Comparing AST reporting at CONUS versus OCONUS locations, AST was reported for 1175 (83%) and 46 (78%) of Shigella isolates at CONUS and OCONUS locations, respectively, and for 4591 (76%) and 428 (63%) of Salmonella isolates at CONUS and OCONUS locations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed inconsistent enteropathogen AST conducted across the MHS, with differing trends between CONUS and OCONUS locations. Additional work is needed to assess pathogen-specific gaps in testing and reporting to develop optimal surveillance that supports the health of the force.

Seasonality in extra-pulmonary tuberculosis notifications in Germany 2004-2014- a time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Seasonality in tuberculosis (TB) has been found in different parts of the world, showing a peak in spring/summer and a trough in autumn/winter. The evidence is less clear which factors drive seasonality. It was our aim to identify and evaluate seasonality in the notifications of TB in Germany, additionally investigating the possible variance of seasonality by disease site, sex and age group. METHODS: We conducted an integer-valued time series analysis using national surveillance data. We analysed the reported monthly numbers of started treatments between 2004 and 2014 for all notified TB cases and stratified by disease site, sex and age group. RESULTS: We detected seasonality in the extra-pulmonary TB cases (N = 11,219), with peaks in late spring/summer and troughs in fall/winter. For all TB notifications together (N = 51,090) and for pulmonary TB only (N = 39,714) we did not find a distinct seasonality. Additional stratified analyses did not reveal any clear differences between age groups, the sexes, or between active and passive case finding. CONCLUSION: We found seasonality in extra-pulmonary TB only, indicating that seasonality of disease onset might be specific to the disease site. This could point towards differences in disease progression between the different clinical disease manifestations. Sex appears not to be an important driver of seasonality, whereas the role of age remains unclear as this could not be sufficiently investigated.

Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance in long-term care facilities: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are vulnerable to outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Timely epidemiological surveillance is essential for outbreak response, but is complicated by a high proportion of silent (non-symptomatic) infections and limited testing resources. METHODS: We used a stochastic, individual-based model to simulate transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) along detailed inter-individual contact networks describing patient-staff interactions in a real LTCF setting. We simulated distribution of nasopharyngeal swabs and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests using clinical and demographic indications and evaluated the efficacy and resource-efficiency of a range of surveillance strategies, including group testing (sample pooling) and testing cascades, which couple (i) testing for multiple indications (symptoms, admission) with (ii) random daily testing. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, randomly introducing a silent SARS-CoV-2 infection into a 170-bed LTCF led to large outbreaks, with a cumulative 86 (95% uncertainty interval 6-224) infections after 3 weeks of unmitigated transmission. Efficacy of symptom-based screening was limited by lags to symptom onset and silent asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission. Across scenarios, testing upon admission detected just 34-66% of patients infected upon LTCF entry, and also missed potential introductions from staff. Random daily testing was more effective when targeting patients than staff, but was overall an inefficient use of limited resources. At high testing capacity (> 10 tests/100 beds/day), cascades were most effective, with a 19-36% probability of detecting outbreaks prior to any nosocomial transmission, and 26-46% prior to first onset of COVID-19 symptoms. Conversely, at low capacity (< 2 tests/100 beds/day), group testing strategies detected outbreaks earliest. Pooling randomly selected patients in a daily group test was most likely to detect outbreaks prior to first symptom onset (16-27%), while pooling patients and staff expressing any COVID-like symptoms was the most efficient means to improve surveillance given resource limitations, compared to the reference requiring only 6-9 additional tests and 11-28 additional swabs to detect outbreaks 1-6 days earlier, prior to an additional 11-22 infections. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 surveillance is challenged by delayed or absent clinical symptoms and imperfect diagnostic sensitivity of standard RT-PCR tests. In our analysis, group testing was the most effective and efficient COVID-19 surveillance strategy for resource-limited LTCFs. Testing cascades were even more effective given ample testing resources. Increasing testing capacity and updating surveillance protocols accordingly could facilitate earlier detection of emerging outbreaks, informing a need for urgent intervention in settings with ongoing nosocomial transmission.

Sharing public health data and information across borders: lessons from Southeast Asia.

BACKGROUND: The importance of data and information sharing for the prevention and control of infectious diseases has long been recognised. In recent years, public health emergencies such as avian influenza, drug-resistant malaria, and Ebola have brought renewed attention to the need for effective communication channels between health authorities, particularly in regional contexts where neighbouring countries share common health threats. However, little empirical research has been conducted to date to explore the range of factors that may affect the transfer, exchange, and use of public health data and expertise across borders, especially in developing contexts. METHODS: To explore these issues, 60 interviews were conducted with domestic and international stakeholders in Cambodia and Vietnam, selected amongst those who were involved in regional public health programmes and networks. Data analysis was structured around three categories mapped across the dataset: (1) the nature of shared data and information; (2) the nature of communication channels; and (3) how information flow may be affected by the local, regional, and global system of rules and arrangements. RESULTS: There has been a great intensification in the circulation of data, information, and expertise across borders in Southeast Asia. However, findings from this study document ways in which the movement of data and information from production sites to other places can be challenging due to different standards and practices, language barriers, different national structures and rules that govern the circulation of health information inside and outside countries, imbalances in capacities and power, and sustainability of financing arrangements. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the complex socio-technical nature of data and information sharing, suggesting that best practices require significant involvement of an independent third-party brokering organisation or office, which can redress imbalances between country partners at different levels in the data sharing process, create meaningful communication channels and make the most of shared information and data sets.

Impact of infectious diseases on population health using incidence-based disability-adjusted life years (DALYs): results from the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe study, European Union and European Economic Area countries, 2009 to 2013.

Background and aimsThe Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) study aimed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 31 selected diseases in the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA). Methods: DALYs were estimated using an incidence-based and pathogen-based approach. Incidence was estimated through assessment of data availability and quality, and a correction was applied for under-estimation. Calculation of DALYs was performed with the BCoDE software toolkit without applying time discounting and age-weighting. Results: We estimated that one in 14 inhabitants experienced an infectious disease episode for a total burden of 1.38 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.25-1.5) between 2009 and 2013; 76% of which was related to the acute phase of the infection and its short-term complications. Influenza had the highest burden (30% of the total burden), followed by tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection/AIDS and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Men had the highest burden measured in DALYs (60% of the total), adults 65 years of age and over had 24% and children less than 5 years of age had 11%. Age group-specific burden showed that infants (less than 1 year of age) and elderly people (80 years of age and over) experienced the highest burden. Conclusions: These results provide baseline estimates for evaluating infectious disease prevention and control strategies. The study promotes an evidence-based approach to describing population health and assessing surveillance data availability and quality, and provides information for the planning and prioritisation of limited resources in infectious disease prevention and control.

Comparing national infectious disease surveillance systems: China and the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment and early warning (RAEW) are essential components of any infectious disease surveillance system. In light of the International Health Regulations (IHR)(2005), this study compares the organisation of RAEW in China and the Netherlands. The respective approaches towards surveillance of arboviral disease and unexplained pneumonia were analysed to gain a better understanding of the RAEW mode of operation. This study may be used to explore options for further strengthening of global collaboration and timely detection and surveillance of infectious disease outbreaks. METHODS: A qualitative study design was used, combining data retrieved from the literature and from semi-structured interviews with Chinese (5 national-level and 6 provincial-level) and Dutch (5 national-level) experts. RESULTS: The results show that some differences exist such as in the use of automated electronic components of the early warning system in China ('CIDARS'), compared to a more limited automated component in the Netherlands ('barometer'). Moreover, RAEW units in the Netherlands focus exclusively on infectious diseases, while China has a broader 'all hazard' approach (including for example chemical incidents). In the Netherlands, veterinary specialists take part at the RAEW meetings, to enable a structured exchange/assessment of zoonotic signals. CONCLUSION: Despite these differences, the main conclusion is that for the two infections studied, the early warning system in China and the Netherlands are remarkably similar considering their large differences in infectious disease history, population size and geographical setting. Our main recommendations are continued emphasis on international corporation that requires insight into national infectious disease surveillance systems, the usage of a One Health approach in infectious disease surveillance, and further exploration/strengthening of a combined syndromic and laboratory surveillance system.

Using online social networks to track a pandemic: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The popularity and proliferation of online social networks (OSNs) have created massive social interaction among users that generate an extensive amount of data. An OSN offers a unique opportunity for studying and understanding social interaction and communication among far larger populations now more than ever before. Recently, OSNs have received considerable attention as a possible tool to track a pandemic because they can provide an almost real-time surveillance system at a less costly rate than traditional surveillance systems. METHODS: A systematic literature search for studies with the primary aim of using OSN to detect and track a pandemic was conducted. We conducted an electronic literature search for eligible English articles published between 2004 and 2015 using PUBMED, IEEExplore, ACM Digital Library, Google Scholar, and Web of Science. First, the articles were screened on the basis of titles and abstracts. Second, the full texts were reviewed. All included studies were subjected to quality assessment. RESULT: OSNs have rich information that can be utilized to develop an almost real-time pandemic surveillance system. The outcomes of OSN surveillance systems have demonstrated high correlations with the findings of official surveillance systems. However, the limitation in using OSN to track pandemic is in collecting representative data with sufficient population coverage. This challenge is related to the characteristics of OSN data. The data are dynamic, large-sized, and unstructured, thus requiring advanced algorithms and computational linguistics. CONCLUSIONS: OSN data contain significant information that can be used to track a pandemic. Different from traditional surveys and clinical reports, in which the data collection process is time consuming at costly rates, OSN data can be collected almost in real time at a cheaper cost. Additionally, the geographical and temporal information can provide exploratory analysis of spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious disease spread. However, on one hand, an OSN-based surveillance system requires comprehensive adoption, enhanced geographical identification system, and advanced algorithms and computational linguistics to eliminate its limitations and challenges. On the other hand, OSN is probably to never replace traditional surveillance, but it can offer complementary data that can work best when integrated with traditional data.

Performance of eHealth data sources in local influenza surveillance: a 5-year open cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is abundant global interest in using syndromic data from population-wide health information systems--referred to as eHealth resources--to improve infectious disease surveillance. Recently, the necessity for these systems to achieve two potentially conflicting requirements has been emphasized. First, they must be evidence-based; second, they must be adjusted for the diversity of populations, lifestyles, and environments. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective was to examine correlations between data from Google Flu Trends (GFT), computer-supported telenursing centers, health service websites, and influenza case rates during seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks. The secondary objective was to investigate associations between eHealth data, media coverage, and the interaction between circulating influenza strain(s) and the age-related population immunity. METHODS: An open cohort design was used for a five-year study in a Swedish county (population 427,000). Syndromic eHealth data were collected from GFT, telenursing call centers, and local health service website visits at page level. Data on mass media coverage of influenza was collected from the major regional newspaper. The performance of eHealth data in surveillance was measured by correlation effect size and time lag to clinically diagnosed influenza cases. RESULTS: Local media coverage data and influenza case rates showed correlations with large effect sizes only for the influenza A (A) pH1N1 outbreak in 2009 (r=.74, 95% CI .42-.90; P<.001) and the severe seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2011-2012 (r=.79, 95% CI .42-.93; P=.001), with media coverage preceding case rates with one week. Correlations between GFT and influenza case data showed large effect sizes for all outbreaks, the largest being the seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2008-2009 (r=.96, 95% CI .88-.99; P<.001). The preceding time lag decreased from two weeks during the first outbreaks to one week from the 2009 A pH1N1 pandemic. Telenursing data and influenza case data showed correlations with large effect sizes for all outbreaks after the seasonal B and A H1 outbreak in 2007-2008, with a time lag decreasing from two weeks for the seasonal A H3N2 outbreak in 2008-2009 (r=.95, 95% CI .82-.98; P<.001) to none for the A p H1N1 outbreak in 2009 (r=.84, 95% CI .62-.94; P<.001). Large effect sizes were also observed between website visits and influenza case data. CONCLUSIONS: Correlations between the eHealth data and influenza case rates in a Swedish county showed large effect sizes throughout a five-year period, while the time lag between signals in eHealth data and influenza rates changed. Further research is needed on analytic methods for adjusting eHealth surveillance systems to shifts in media coverage and to variations in age-group related immunity between virus strains. The results can be used to inform the development of alert-generating eHealth surveillance systems that can be subject for prospective evaluations in routine public health practice.

Enhancing infectious diseases early warning: A deep learning approach for influenza surveillance in China.

Objective: This study aimed to develop a universally applicable, feedback-informed Self-Excitation Attention Residual Network (SEAR) model. This model dynamically adapts to evolving disease trends and surveillance system changes, accommodating various scenarios. Thereby enhancing the effectiveness of early warning systems. Methods: Surveillance data on influenza-like illness (ILI) was collected from various regions including Northern China, Southern China, Beijing, and Yunnan. The reproduction number (Rt) was estimated to determine the threshold for issuing warnings. The Self-Excitation Attention Residual Network (SEAR) was devised employing deep learning algorithms and was trained, validated, and tested. The SEAR model's efficacy was assessed based on five metrics: accuracy rate, recall rate, F1 score, confusion matrix, and the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: With an advance warning set at three days, the SEAR model outperformed five primary models - logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, and Long Short-Term Memory model - in all five evaluation metrics. Notably, the model's warning performance declined with an increase in the early warning value and the number of warning days, albeit maintaining a ROC value over 0.7 in all scenarios. Conclusion: The SEAR model demonstrated robust early warning performance for influenza in diverse Chinese regions with high accuracy and specificity. This novel model, augmenting traditional systems, supports widespread application for respiratory disease outbreak monitoring. Future evaluations could incorporate alternative indicators, with the model continuously updating through data feedback, thus enhancing its universal applicability. Ongoing optimization, using iterative feedback and expert judgment, heralds a transformative approach to surveillance-based early warning strategies.

Combining Digital and Molecular Approaches Using Health and Alternate Data Sources in a Next-Generation Surveillance System for Anticipating Outbreaks of Pandemic Potential.

Globally, millions of lives are impacted every year by infectious diseases outbreaks. Comprehensive and innovative surveillance strategies aiming at early alert and timely containment of emerging and reemerging pathogens are a pressing priority. Shortcomings and delays in current pathogen surveillance practices further disturbed informing responses, interventions, and mitigation of recent pandemics, including H1N1 influenza and SARS-CoV-2. We present the design principles of the architecture for an early-alert surveillance system that leverages the vast available data landscape, including syndromic data from primary health care, drug sales, and rumors from the lay media and social media to identify areas with an increased number of cases of respiratory disease. In these potentially affected areas, an intensive and fast sample collection and advanced high-throughput genome sequencing analyses would inform on circulating known or novel pathogens by metagenomics-enabled pathogen characterization. Concurrently, the integration of bioclimatic and socioeconomic data, as well as transportation and mobility network data, into a data analytics platform, coupled with advanced mathematical modeling using artificial intelligence or machine learning, will enable more accurate estimation of outbreak spread risk. Such an approach aims to readily identify and characterize regions in the early stages of an outbreak development, as well as model risk and patterns of spread, informing targeted mitigation and control measures. A fully operational system must integrate diverse and robust data streams to translate data into actionable intelligence and actions, ultimately paving the way toward constructing next-generation surveillance systems.

Development and validation of HBV surveillance models using big data and machine learning.

BACKGROUND: The construction of a robust healthcare information system is fundamental to enhancing countries' capabilities in the surveillance and control of hepatitis B virus (HBV). Making use of China's rapidly expanding primary healthcare system, this innovative approach using big data and machine learning (ML) could help towards the World Health Organization's (WHO) HBV infection elimination goals of reaching 90% diagnosis and treatment rates by 2030. We aimed to develop and validate HBV detection models using routine clinical data to improve the detection of HBV and support the development of effective interventions to mitigate the impact of this disease in China. METHODS: Relevant data records extracted from the Family Medicine Clinic of the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital's Hospital Information System were structuralized using state-of-the-art Natural Language Processing techniques. Several ML models have been used to develop HBV risk assessment models. The performance of the ML model was then interpreted using the Shapley value (SHAP) and validated using cohort data randomly divided at a ratio of 2:1 using a five-fold cross-validation framework. RESULTS: The patterns of physical complaints of patients with and without HBV infection were identified by processing 158,988 clinic attendance records. After removing cases without any clinical parameters from the derivation sample (n = 105,992), 27,392 cases were analysed using six modelling methods. A simplified model for HBV using patients' physical complaints and parameters was developed with good discrimination (AUC = 0.78) and calibration (goodness of fit test p-value >0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Suspected case detection models of HBV, showing potential for clinical deployment, have been developed to improve HBV surveillance in primary care setting in China. (Word count: 264).

This study has developed a suspected case detection model for HBV, which can facilitate early identification and treatment of HBV in the primary care setting in China, contributing towards the achievement of WHO's elimination goals of HBV infections.We utilized the state-of-art natural language processing techniques to structure the data records, leading to the development of a robust healthcare information system which enhances the surveillance and control of HBV in China.

Quantitative assessment of multiple pathogen exposure and immune dynamics at scale.

IMPORTANCE: Serology reveals exposure to pathogens, as well as the state of autoimmune and other clinical conditions. It is used to evaluate individuals and their histories and as a public health tool to track epidemics. Employing a variety of formats, studies nearly always perform serology by testing response to only one or a few antigens. However, clinical outcomes of new infections also depend on which previous infections may have occurred. We developed a high-throughput serology method that evaluates responses to hundreds of antigens simultaneously. It can be used to evaluate thousands of samples at a time and provide a quantitative readout. This tool will enable doctors to monitor which pathogens an individual has been exposed to and how that changes in the future. Moreover, public health officials could track populations and look for infectious trends among large populations. Testing many potential antigens at a time may also aid in vaccine development.

The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Switzerland and its impact on disease spread.

We analyse infectious disease case surveillance data to estimate COVID-19 spread and gain an understanding of the impact of introducing vaccines to counter the disease in Switzerland. The data used in this work is extensive and detailed and includes information on weekly number of cases and vaccination rates by age and region. Our approach takes into account waning immunity. The statistical analysis allows us to determine the effects of choosing alternative vaccination strategies. Our results indicate greater uptake of vaccine would have led to fewer cases with a particularly large effect on undervaccinated regions. An alternative distribution scheme not targeting specific age groups also leads to fewer cases overall but could lead to more cases among the elderly (a potentially vulnerable population) during the early stage of prophylaxis rollout.

Public transit mobility as a leading indicator of COVID-19 transmission in 40 cities during the first wave of the pandemic.

Background: The rapid global emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 created urgent demand for leading indicators to track the spread of the virus and assess the consequences of public health measures designed to limit transmission. Public transit mobility, which has been shown to be responsive to previous societal disruptions such as disease outbreaks and terrorist attacks, emerged as an early candidate. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal ecological study of the association between public transit mobility reductions and COVID-19 transmission using publicly available data from a public transit app in 40 global cities from March 16 to April 12, 2020. Multilevel linear regression models were used to estimate the association between COVID-19 transmission and the value of the mobility index 2 weeks prior using two different outcome measures: weekly case ratio and effective reproduction number. Results: Over the course of March 2020, median public transit mobility, measured by the volume of trips planned in the app, dropped from 100% (first quartile (Q1)-third quartile (Q3) = 94-108%) of typical usage to 10% (Q1-Q3 = 6-15%). Mobility was strongly associated with COVID-19 transmission 2 weeks later: a 10% decline in mobility was associated with a 12.3% decrease in the weekly case ratio (exp(ß) = 0.877; 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.859-0.896]) and a decrease in the effective reproduction number (ß = -0.058; 95% CI: [-0.068 to -0.048]). The mobility-only models explained nearly 60% of variance in the data for both outcomes. The adjustment for epidemic timing attenuated the associations between mobility and subsequent COVID-19 transmission but only slightly increased the variance explained by the models. Discussion: Our analysis demonstrated the value of public transit mobility as a leading indicator of COVID-19 transmission during the first wave of the pandemic in 40 global cities, at a time when few such indicators were available. Factors such as persistently depressed demand for public transit since the onset of the pandemic limit the ongoing utility of a mobility index based on public transit usage. This study illustrates an innovative use of "big data" from industry to inform the response to a global pandemic, providing support for future collaborations aimed at important public health challenges.