Trends in racial and ethnic discrimination in hiring in six Western countries.

We examine trends in racial and ethnic discrimination in hiring in six European and North American countries: Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and the United States. Our sample includes all available discrimination estimates from 90 field experimental studies of hiring discrimination, encompassing more than 170,000 applications for jobs. The years covered vary by country, ranging from 1969 to 2017 for Great Britain to 1994 to 2017 for Germany. We examine trends in discrimination against four racial-ethnic origin groups: African/Black, Asian, Latin American/Hispanic, and Middle Eastern or North African. The results indicate that levels of discrimination in callbacks have remained either unchanged or slightly increased overall for most countries and origin categories. There are three notable exceptions. First, hiring discrimination against ethnic groups with origins in the Middle East and North Africa increased during the 2000s relative to the 1990s. Second, we find that discrimination in France declined, although from very high to "merely" high levels. Third, we find evidence that discrimination in the Netherlands has increased over time. Controls for study characteristics do not change these trends. Contrary to the idea that discrimination will tend to decline in Western countries, we find that discrimination has not fallen over the last few decades in five of the six Western countries we examine.

The International Transmission of Local Economic Shocks Through Migrant Networks.

Using newly validated data on geographic migration networks, we study how labor demand shocks in the United States propagate across the border with Mexico. We show that the large exogenous decline in US employment brought about by the Great Recession affected demographic and economic outcomes in Mexican communities that were highly connected to the most affected markets in the US. In the Mexican locations with strong initial ties to the hardest hit US migrant destinations, return migration increased, emigration decreased, and remittance receipt declined. These changes significantly increased local employment and hours worked, but wages were unaffected. Investment in children's education also slowed in these communities. These findings document the effects in Mexico when potential migrants lose access to a strong US labor market, providing insight into the potential impacts of stricter US migration restrictions.

Loss-of-learning and the post-Covid recovery in low-income countries.

We analyze the medium-term macroeconomic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and associated lock-down measures on low-income countries. We focus on the impact of the degradation of health and human capital caused by the pandemic and its aftermath, exploring the trade-offs between rebuilding human capital and the recovery of livelihoods and macroeconomic sustainability. A dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to reflect the structural characteristics of vulnerable low-income countries and to replicate key dimensions of the Covid-19 shock. We show that absent significant and sustained external financing, the persistence of loss-of-learning effects on labor productivity is likely to make the post-Covid recovery more attenuated and more expensive than many contemporary analysis suggests.

Hospital-physician integration and risk-coding intensity.

Hospital-physician integration has surged in recent years. Integration may allow hospitals to share resources and management practices with their integrated physicians that increase the reported diagnostic severity of their patients. Greater diagnostic severity will increase practices' payment under risk-based arrangements. We offer the first analysis of whether hospital-physician integration affects providers' coding of patient severity. Using a two-way fixed effects model, an event study, and a stacked difference-in-differences analysis of 5 million patient-year observations from 2010 to 2015, we find that the integration of a patient's primary care doctor is associated with a robust 2%-4% increase in coded severity, the risk-score equivalent of aging a physician's patients by 4-8 months. This effect was not driven by physicians treating different patients nor by physicians seeing patients more often. Our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that hospitals share organizational resources with acquired physician practices to increase the measured clinical severity of patients. Increases in the intensity of coding will improve vertically-integrated practices' performance in alternative payment models and pay-for-performance programs while raising overall health care spending.

The effect of nurse practitioner scope of practice laws on primary care delivery.

Nurse practitioners (NPs) are an increasingly integral part of the primary care workforce. NPs' authority to practice without physician oversight is regulated by state-level scope of practice (SOP) restrictions. To the extent that SOP restrictions prevent NPs from practicing to their full abilities and capacity, they could create inefficiencies and restrict access to health care. In this paper, I study what happens at primary care practices when states relax their SOP laws. Using a novel dataset of claims and electronic health records paired with a difference-in-differences research design, I quantify the effects of relaxing SOP laws on: (1) NPs' autonomy in their day-to-day jobs; (2) total workload and patient allocation between NPs and physicians; and (3) the provision of low-value services at primary care practices. I find some evidence that NPs practice more autonomously following SOP changes, but I find no evidence that relaxing SOP laws changes the volume nor allocation of patients to NPs, nor the provision of low-value services. Given the lower reimbursement that NPs typically receive, these findings suggest that allowing NPs to practice without physician oversight could reduce health care spending, without harming patients.

Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis.

This paper assesses the pandemic's impact on Italian local economies with the newly developed machine learning control method for counterfactual building. Our results document that the economic effects of the COVID-19 shock vary dramatically across the Italian territory and are spatially uncorrelated with the epidemiological pattern of the first wave. The largest employment losses occurred in areas characterized by high exposure to social aggregation risks and pre-existing labor market fragilities. Lastly, we show that the hotspots of the COVID-19 crisis do not overlap with those of the Great Recession. These findings call for a place-based policy response to address the uneven economic geography of the pandemic.

UNCERTAIN TIME: PRECARIOUS SCHEDULES AND JOB TURNOVER IN THE US SERVICE SECTOR.

The authors develop a model of cumulative disadvantage relating three axes of disadvantage for hourly workers in the US retail and food service sectors: schedule instability, turnover, and earnings. In this model, exposure to unstable work schedules disrupts workers' family and economic lives, straining the employment relation and increasing the likelihood of turnover, which can then lead to earnings losses. Drawing on new panel data from 1,827 hourly workers in retail and food service collected as part of the Shift Project, the authors demonstrate that exposure to schedule instability is a strong, robust predictor of turnover for workers with relatively unstable schedules (about one-third of the sample). Slightly less than half of this relationship is mediated by job satisfaction and another quarter by work-family conflict. Job turnover is generally associated with earnings losses due to unemployment, but workers leaving jobs with moderately unstable schedules experience earnings growth upon re-employment.

Does the Impact of Motherhood on Women's Employment and Wages Differ for Women Who Plan Their Transition Into Motherhood?

Women's ability to control their fertility through contraception and abortion has been shown to contribute to improvements in education and employment. At the same time, their employment and wages decline substantially when they transition to motherhood. About one-third of births are unintended, and it is unknown whether the impact of motherhood on employment, hours, and wages is smaller for women who planned their transition into motherhood compared with those who did not. To explore this, we examine fixed-effects models that estimate labor market outcomes using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979-2014. We estimate models for Black and White women and find that the relationship between motherhood and employment is significantly more negative among White women who plan their transition into motherhood than among those who have an unplanned first birth. Among those who remain employed, we find that those with a planned first birth work fewer hours and have lower wages relative to those with unplanned births. We do not find significant evidence that the association between motherhood and labor market outcomes differs by fertility planning among Black women. Prior research shows how women's choices are structurally constrained by sociocultural norms and expectations and by a labor market that may not readily accommodate motherhood. In this context, our findings may reflect differences in women's motherhood and employment preferences and their ability to act on those preferences. Our analysis also makes a novel contribution to the large body of research that associates unplanned births with negative outcomes.

Real wage growth in the U.S. health workforce and the narrowing of the gender pay gap.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare has been identified as a job engine during recent recessions in the U.S. Whether the healthcare sector provides better than average pay remains a question. This study investigates if wages grew with the expanding demand for healthcare workers between 2001 and 2017. Wage growth in the (1) physicians and surgeons, (2) nurse, (3) healthcare practitioner and technical, (4) healthcare support, and (5) direct patient care jobs are examined. The gender pay gap in each occupation is investigated. METHODS: The American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata sample (PUMS) for 2001, 2004, 2008, 2013, and 2017 were used to derive hourly wages for full-time, full-year workers aged 18-75. The cumulative percent change in unadjusted, median hourly wages between 2001 and 2017 was calculated for each occupation. Quantile regression estimates predicted a median hourly wage for men and women by year and job after adjusting for differences in demographics, industry, and hours worked. RESULTS: Unadjusted median wage growth was 9.92% for nurses, 5.68% for healthcare practitioners, and 37.6% for physicians between 2001 and 2017. These rates are roughly above the estimated national rate of wage growth at the 50th wage percentile. In healthcare support and direct patient care occupations, workers experienced either stagnant or negative wage growth. Women had lower occupational wages than men. CONCLUSION: The slow or negative median wage growth in all but the physician occupation between 2004-2008 and 2008-2013 confirms that healthcare wages in the U.S. are not recession-proof, unlike healthcare employment. Generally, women's earnings grew at rates that were higher or less negative than rates for men. This trend contributed to narrowing the gender pay gap in every occupation except for nurse.

Employment's Role in Enabling and Constraining Marriage in the Middle East and North Africa.

We investigate the role of employment in enabling and constraining marriage for young men and women in Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia. Survival analysis methods for age at marriage are applied to comparable labor market panel surveys from Egypt (2012), Jordan (2010), and Tunisia (2014), which include detailed labor market histories. For men, employment and especially high-quality employment are associated with more rapid transitions to marriage. For women, past-but not contemporaneous-employment statuses are associated with more rapid transitions to marriage. After addressing endogeneity using residual-inclusion methods for the case of public sector employment (a type of high-quality employment), we find that such employment significantly accelerates marriage for men in Egypt and women in Egypt and Tunisia. The potential of high-quality employment to accelerate marriage may make queuing in unemployment while seeking high-quality employment a worthwhile strategy.

It's Who You Know: The Role of Social Networks in a Changing Labor Market.

Teacher labor markets are evolving across the United States. The rise of charter schools, alternative teacher certification, and portfolio districts are transforming teachers' access to employment, changing the way they search for and apply for jobs, and may also change the role that social networks play in the job search. However, we know little about how teachers use their networks to find jobs, particularly in increasingly fragmented local labor markets. We draw on interviews with 127 teachers in three districts chosen to reflect an increasing presence of charter schools: New Orleans, Detroit, and San Antonio. We find that the extent of fragmentation in a city's labor market drives the use of networks, with important implications for job access and equity.

Meta-analysis of field experiments shows no change in racial discrimination in hiring over time.

This study investigates change over time in the level of hiring discrimination in US labor markets. We perform a meta-analysis of every available field experiment of hiring discrimination against African Americans or Latinos (n = 28). Together, these studies represent 55,842 applications submitted for 26,326 positions. We focus on trends since 1989 (n = 24 studies), when field experiments became more common and improved methodologically. Since 1989, whites receive on average 36% more callbacks than African Americans, and 24% more callbacks than Latinos. We observe no change in the level of hiring discrimination against African Americans over the past 25 years, although we find modest evidence of a decline in discrimination against Latinos. Accounting for applicant education, applicant gender, study method, occupational groups, and local labor market conditions does little to alter this result. Contrary to claims of declining discrimination in American society, our estimates suggest that levels of discrimination remain largely unchanged, at least at the point of hire.

Female labor force participation in the US: How is immigration shaping recent trends?

Women entered the paid workforce in unprecedented numbers during the 20th century. Yet recent years have been witness to a creeping reversal in women's labor force participation. Why did the revolution stall? In response to debates over a "natural" limit to women's employment, or a cultural backlash against the dual-breadwinner household, we consider an alternative explanation, namely whether immigration has slowed the growth in female labor force participation. Using CPS data from 1998 to 2018, we show that the increase in the share of immigrants and children of immigrants in the population has reduced overall female labor force participation. However, immigration accounts for relatively little of the retreat from the labor force. Instead, the compositional effect of population change is overshadowed by behavioral shifts that affect both natives and immigrants. Lower participation rates among native-born women accounts for most of the overall decline. Despite persistent differences, we also find substantial convergence in the labor force behavior of native-born and foreign-born women, which bodes well for the long-term economic incorporation of immigrants and their children.

Recruiting and retaining dental labor in federal facilities: Harder than pulling teeth?

The U.S. Veterans Administration (VA) is a large publicly financed health system that has long struggled with provider shortages. Shortages may arise at the VA because it offers different compensation than private sector employment options or because of differences in the way that labor is supplied to public versus private employers. In the mid-2000s, the VA adopted a more generous and flexible pay schedule for its dentists. We exploit this salary schedule change to study the impact of a positive wage shock on dental labor supplied to the VA, within a difference-in-differences framework. We find limited effects on VA separation and new hire rates overall-though early career dentists appear more sensitive to the wage change. More generous pay has its clearest effects on employment type for VA dentists, reducing the likelihood of being part-time by roughly 10%.

TO THE NEW WORLD AND BACK AGAIN: RETURN MIGRANTS IN THE AGE OF MASS MIGRATION.

The authors compile large data sets from Norwegian and US historical censuses to study return migration during the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1913). Norwegian immigrants who returned to Norway held lower-paid occupations than did Norwegian immigrants who stayed in the United States, both before and after their first transatlantic migration, suggesting they were negatively selected from the migrant pool. Upon returning to Norway, return migrants held higher-paid occupations relative to Norwegians who never moved, despite hailing from poorer backgrounds. These patterns suggest that despite being negatively selected, return migrants had been able to accumulate savings and could improve their economic circumstances once they returned home.

Supply-side effects from public insurance expansions: Evidence from physician labor markets.

Medicaid and the Child Health Insurance Programs (CHIP) are key sources of coverage for U.S. children. Established in 1997, CHIP allocated $40 billion of federal funds across the first 10 years but continued support required reauthorization. After 2 failed attempts in Congress, CHIP was finally reauthorized and significantly expanded in 2009. Although much is known about the demand-side policy effects, much less is understood about the policy's impact on providers. In this paper, we leverage a unique physician dataset to examine if and how pediatricians responded to the expansion of the public insurance program. We find that newly trained pediatricians are 8 percentage points more likely to subspecialize and as much as 17 percentage points more likely to enter private practice after the law passed. There is also suggestive evidence of greater private practice growth in more rural locations. The sharp supply-side changes that we observe indicate that expanding public insurance can have important spillover effects on provider training and practice choices.

Does the Type of Higher Education Affect Labor Market Outcomes? Evidence from Egypt and Jordan.

In Egypt and Jordan there is a substantial mismatch between the output of the higher education system and the needs of the labor market. Both demand and supply-side factors could be driving this mismatch. This paper tests a key supply-side issue, whether differences in the institutional structures and incentives in higher education affect the labor market outcomes of graduates. Specifically, we ask if the stronger alignment of incentives in private relative to public higher education institutions produces more employable human capital and better labor market outcomes. We examine the impact of the type of higher education institution a person attends on several labor market outcomes while controlling for his or her pre-enrollment characteristics. The results demonstrate that supply-side issues and institutional incentives have little impact on labor market outcomes while family background plays by far the largest role. Proposed reforms for higher education often suggest increasing the role of the private sector in provision of higher education. Our findings indicate that this approach is unlikely to improve labor market outcomes.

Recruiting "Talent": School Choice and Teacher Hiring in New Orleans.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine school leaders' preferences and practices in an environment of widespread decentralization, privatization, and school choice. In New Orleans, such reforms have been enacted citywide since Hurricane Katrina, making it an ideal site to examine what happens when policy makers lift restrictions for school leaders-and remove protections for teachers-related to teacher hiring on a large scale. Research Methods/Approach: In this exploratory study, I analyze qualitative data to examine school leaders' preferences and practices when recruiting teachers in New Orleans. The data for the study come from 94 interviews with principals, district leaders, and charter network leaders. Findings: School leaders had different conceptions of "talent" and "fit," and used a variety of strategies to recruit teachers. School districts and charter networks both supported and constrained school leaders' autonomy and recruitment practices by screening applicants or setting guidelines and criteria. Other intermediary organizations also played a role in shaping the teacher labor market. School choice also posed unique challenges for teacher recruitment. Implications: Overall, expansive choice policies in New Orleans appear to foster flexibility and variation in teacher hiring strategies (although not in salary), as expected in a decentralized system. However, these policies and strategies appear also to have other consequences, including greater instability or "churn," unpredictability, and a bifurcated teaching force.

Part-time employment in Jordan as a nursing policy solution.

AIM: Explore the potential of a part-time work option for nurses as a strategy for managing domestic markets in Jordan by examining perceptions of working nurses and nursing students in the context of current social and cultural variables. BACKGROUND: Unemployment among Jordanian nurses has become a reality in recent years. However, labor markets literature in nursing rarely studies what kind of policy responses should occur during a surplus of nurses. METHODS: A cross-sectional design structured the study. The perceptions of nurses and students were measured through a questionnaire developed specifically for the purpose of this exploratory study. RESULTS: Both nurses (n = 51) and students (n = 56) supported the introduction of the new suggested part-time option. However, students were more willing to start working or transfer into part-time work, take payment on hourly basis, and support colleagues to transfer into part-time work. Different solutions were also suggested by participants. DISCUSSION: The results were useful for providing the foundational data to further study the viability of a part-time work option for Jordanian nurses. The results show how optimistic current and future Jordanian nurses are regarding this employment option. For countries that may need to diversify their employment models due to excess supply of nurses and to address gender imbalances, this work may help inform policy development. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSES: Both employed and unemployed nurses will benefit if health care managers consider its application. The flexibility of this option may help improve the quality of life of many nurses. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH POLICY: The results of this study provide nursing leaders and managers with foundational evidence that may be applicable in the Jordanian health sector. Although further studies are recommended, nursing leaders and policy makers should consider such a solution.

Preparing for Local Labor: Curricular Stratification across Local Economies in the United States.

I investigate how the educational demands of local labor markets shape high school course offerings and student course taking. Using the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 linked to the U.S. Census 2000, I focus on local economic variation in the share of jobs that do not demand a bachelor's degree. I find that schools in local labor markets with higher concentrations of subbaccalaureate jobs devote a larger share of their course offerings to career and technical education (CTE) courses and a smaller share to advanced college-preparatory courses compared to schools in labor markets with lower concentrations of subbaccalaureate jobs, even net of school resources. Students in labor markets with higher concentrations of subbaccalaureate jobs take greater numbers of CTE courses, and higher-achieving students in these labor markets are less likely to take advanced math and Advanced Placement/International Baccalaureate courses. These course-taking disparities are largely due to school course offerings. This study shows how local economic inequalities shape high school curricular stratification, and suggests that school curricula linked to the educational demands of local jobs delimits the college preparation opportunities of high-achieving students.