Wildfire-induced increases in photosynthesis in boreal forest ecosystems of North America.

Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape-level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat-derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post-fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space-for-time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid-succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8-40% during June and July for 2- to 59-year stands relative to pre-fire controls. From the analysis of post-fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long-term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early- and mid-summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long-term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO2 exchange without a close coupling to long-term increases in carbon storage.

Understanding variation in impacts from private protected areas across regions and protection mechanisms to inform organizational practices.

Private land protection is an important and growing tool to address biodiversity loss and climate change. Thus, better empirical evidence on the effectiveness of private land protection and organizational practices, such as targeting of lands for protection and choice of protection mechanism (i.e., fee simple land acquisition and conservation easements), is needed. We addressed this gap by estimating the impacts of The Nature Conservancy's (TNC) (a large nongovernmental organization with relatively decentralized management) conservation land acquisitions and easements from 1988 to 2016 in three regions of the United States (Mid-Atlantic, New England and New York, and California). We estimated impact in terms of avoided conversion by comparing natural land cover on 3179 protected parcels with matched unprotected parcels. Nineteen of 21 ecoregional plans used threats of agriculture and development to identify priorities for protection. When regions and protection mechanisms were pooled, on average there was no evidence of avoided conversion from 1988 to 2016. Accounting for mechanisms, TNC land acquisitions avoided conversion and easements did not. TNC's easements on parcels acquired by conservation partners did avoid conversion. Limitations of these results include focus on a single measure of impact, inability to capture future avoided conversion, and low land cover change accuracy in California. Our results suggest that private land protection managers who seek to avoid land conversion in the near to medium term should increase focus on areas with higher threats. Special attention should be paid to strengthening accountability and the role of partners, improving or clarifying how easements are used, and facilitating the flow of resources to work with the greatest potential impact.

Comprensión de la variación en el impacto de las áreas protegidas privadas sobre las regiones y los mecanismos de protección para guiar las prácticas organizativas Resumen La protección de terreno privado es una herramienta importante, aunque su naturaleza voluntaria puede sesgar la protección hacia parcelas menos amenazadas­lo que resulta en que la conversión no se evite o se evite muy poco. Además, muchos programas de protección privada tienen una supervisión limitada y pocos reportes de sus resultados. Por lo tanto, se necesitan mejores evidencias empíricas de la efectividad de la protección en suelo privado y las prácticas organizativas, como el enfoque en tierras para protección y la selección de los mecanismos de protección (adquisición de terrenos a título oneroso y servidumbres de conservación). Abordamos esta brecha con la estimación de impactos de las adquisiciones de suelo de The Nature Conservancy (TNC, una gran organización no gubernamental con un manejo relativamente descentralizado) y las servidumbres implementadas entre 1988 y 2016 en tres regiones de los Estados Unidos: Atlántico Medio, Nueva Inglaterra y Nueva York, y California. Estimamos el impacto en términos de la conversión que se evitó al comparar la cobertura de suelo en 3,179 parcelas protegidas con parcelas desprotegidas equivalentes. Diecinueve de los 21 planes eco­regionales usaron las amenazas a la agricultura y al desarrollo para identificar las prioridades de protección. Cuando agrupamos las regiones y los mecanismos de protección, en promedio no hubo impacto alguno. Si se consideran los mecanismos, las adquisiciones de suelo de la TNC tuvieron un impacto mientras que las servidumbres no. Las servidumbres de la TNC en las parcelas adquiridas por socios de conservación sí tuvieron un impacto, aunque esta manera de proteger sólo se presentó en las regiones del Atlántico Medio y de Nueva Inglaterra y Nueva York. Nuestros resultados sugieren que la protección privada, especialmente mediante servidumbres, puede estar sesgada hacia suelos no amenazados. Los gestores que buscan evitar la conversión del suelo a mediano o corto plazo deberían enfocarse más en las áreas con más amenazas. Se debería prestar especial atención al fortalecimiento del papel y las responsabilidades de los socios, a la mejora o aclaración de cómo se usan las servidumbres y la facilitación del flujo de recursos para trabajar con el mayor impacto potencial.

Responses of precipitation and water vapor budget on the Chinese Loess Plateau to global land cover change forcing.

There have been notable changes in precipitation patterns on the Loess Plateau (LP) of China in recent decades, and numerous attribution studies have focused on sea surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation changes induced by aerosols and greenhouse gases emission. However, the influences of global land use and land cover change (LULCC) as an important forcing factor in the climate system on regional precipitation remains poorly understood. In this study, we quantified the impacts of LULCC on precipitation and the water vapor budget in the LP region, utilizing data from LULCC forcing experiments conducted by the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Although global LULCC forcing exerted a negative effect on long-term mean precipitation on the LP region from 1850 to 2014, the different response characteristics were detected during different time periods. The global LULCC caused a decrease of 14 mm in annual precipitation during the period of 1850-1960. Conversely, from 1961 to 2014, it led to an increase of 6.4 mm, which is largely attributed to the enhanced water vapor transport along the southern boundary and westerly belt of the LP region. Moreover, from the perspective of the net water vapor balance of the entire LP, although LULCC caused net water vapor export during both periods 1850-1960 and 1961-2014, the export during the latter period (0.20 × 104 kg s-1) was smaller than that during the former period (0.28 × 104 kg s-1), indicating that the global expansion of grassland and cropland, along with the continuous rise in the leaf area index from 1961 to 2014, contributed to retaining more water vapor within the LP, which in turn was more favorable for precipitation. These findings provide valuable insights into the reasons behind precipitation variations in the LP region, emphasizing that global vegetation restoration and greening play a significant role in improving precipitation in ecologically fragile areas.

Spatial targeting of irrigation development and water resource management to mitigate vector-borne disease.

Scaling irrigated agriculture is a global strategy to mitigate food insecurity concerns. While expanding irrigated agriculture is critical to meeting food production demands, it is important to consider how these land use and land cover changes (LULCC) may alter the water resources of landscapes and impact the spatiotemporal epidemiology of disease. Here, a generalizable method is presented to inform irrigation development decision-making aimed at increasing crop production through irrigation while simultaneously mitigating malaria risk to surrounding communities. Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of malaria vector (Anopheles gambiae s.s.) suitability, driven by irrigated agricultural expansion, are presented for Malawi's rainy and dry seasons. The methods presented may be applied to other geographical areas where sufficient irrigation and malaria prevalence data are available. Results show that approximately 8.60% and 1.78% of Malawi is maximally suitable for An. gambiae s.s. breeding in the rainy and dry seasons, respectively. However, the proposed LULCC from irrigated agriculture increases the maximally suitable land area in both seasons: 15.16% (rainy) and 2.17% (dry). Proposed irrigation development sites are analyzed and ranked according to their likelihood of increasing malaria risk for those closest to the schemes. Results illustrate how geospatial information on the anticipated change to the malaria landscape driven by increasing irrigated agricultural extent can assist in altering development plans, amending policies, or reassessing water resource management strategies to mitigate expected changes in malaria risk.

Identifying broken linkages coupling water availability and dryland urbanization for sustainability: The case of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA.

One third of the world's largest cities are located in drylands, where much of future urbanization is projected to occur. This is paradoxical and unsustainable considering water scarcity in drylands, which is exacerbated by climate change. Thus, it is critical to better understand why and how dryland urbanization and water scarcity are decoupled so that sustainable measures can be designed. Focusing on the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (PMA) of the United States, we addressed the following questions: 1) What are the relative influences of water and economic factors on urbanization in recent decades? 2) Which linkages connecting water storage to urban development have been decoupled? and 3) How can water availability and development be better coupled to improve regional sustainability? We tested the relationships between economic factors, water availability, and urbanization, with Pearson Correlation Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling. We found that, from 1986 to 2019, urban population growth and urban land expansion in the PMA were driven by economic factors, and not influenced by fluctuations in water supply. We identified specific broken linkages among water storage, water deliveries, municipal water supply, and urbanization, which must be coupled to enforce water availability constraints on urban expansion in the context of climate change. Our study has important implications for dryland urban sustainability as urbanization on borrowed water is, by definition, unsustainable.

Assessment of vegetation net primary productivity variation and influencing factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

Exploring the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) and analyzing the relationships between NPP and its influencing factors are vital for ecological protection in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. In this study, we employed the CASA model in conjunction with spatiotemporal analysis techniques to estimate and analyze the spatiotemporal variations of NPP in BTH and different ecological function sub-regions over the past two decades. Subsequently, we established three scenarios (actual, climate-driven and land cover-driven) to assess the influencing factors and quantify their relative contributions. The results indicated that the overall NPP in BTH exhibited a discernible upward trend from 2000 to 2020, with a growth rate of 3.83 gC·m-2a-1. Furthermore, all six sub-regions exhibited an increase. The Bashang Plateau Ecological Protection Zone (BP) exhibited the highest growth rate (5.03 gC·m-2a-1), while the Low Plains Ecological Restoration Zone (LP) exhibited the lowest (2.07 gC·m-2a-1). Geographically, the stability of NPP exhibited a spatial pattern of gradual increase from west to east. Climate and land cover changes collectively increased NPP by 0.04 TgC·a-1 and 0.07 TgC·a-1, respectively, in the BTH region. Climate factors were found to have the greatest influence on NPP variations, contributing 40.49% across the BTH region. This influence exhibited a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast, with precipitation identified as the most influential climatic factor compared to temperature and solar radiation. Land cover change has profound effects on ecosystems, which is an important factor on NPP. From 2000 to 2020, 15.45% area of the BTH region underwent land cover type change, resulting in a total increase in NPP of 1.33 TgC. The conversion of grass into forest brought about the 0.89 TgC increase in NPP, which is the largest of all change types. In the area where land cover had undergone change, the land cover factor has been found to be the dominant factor influencing variations in NPP, with an average contribution of 49.37%. In contrast, in the south-central area where there has been no change in land cover, the residual factor has been identified as the most influential factor influencing variations in NPP. Our study highlights the important role of land cover change in influencing NPP variations in BTH. It also offers a novel approach to elucidating the influences of diverse factors on NPP, which is crucial for the scientific assessment of vegetation productivity and carbon sequestration capacity.

Responses of streamflow to forest expansion in a typical subhumid watershed under future climate conditions.

Water availability in the subhumid region is highly vulnerable to frequent droughts. Water scarcity in this region has become a limiting factor for ecosystem health, human livelihood, and regional economic development. A notable pattern of land cover change in the subhumid region of the United States is the increasing forest area due to afforestation/reforestation and woody plant encroachment (WPE). Given the distinct hydrological processes and runoff generation between forests and grasslands, it is important to evaluate the impacts of forest expansion on water resources, especially under future climate conditions. In this study, we focused on a typical subhumid watershed in the United States - the Little River Watershed (LRW). Utilizing SWAT + simulations, we projected streamflow dynamics at the end of the 21st century in two climate scenarios (RCP45 and RCP85) and eleven forest expansion scenarios. In comparison to the period of 2000-2019, future climate change during 2080-2099 will increase streamflow in the Little River by 5.1% in the RCP45 but reduce streamflow significantly by 30.1% in the RCP85. Additionally, our simulations revealed a linear decline in streamflow with increasing forest coverage. If all grasslands in LRW were converted into forests, it would lead to an additional 41% reduction in streamflow. Of significant concern is Lake Thunderbird, the primary reservoir supplying drinking water to the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. Our simulation showed that if all grasslands were replaced by forests, Lake Thunderbird during 2080-2099 would experience an average of 8.6 years in the RCP45 and 9.4 years in the RCP85 with water inflow amount lower than that during the extreme drought event in 2011/2012. These findings hold crucial implications for the formulation of policies related to afforestation/reforestation and WPE management in subhumid regions, which is essential to ensuring the sustainability of water resources.

Assessing changes in the ecosystem service value in response to land use and land cover dynamics in Malawi.

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are inevitable outcomes of socioeconomic changes and greatly affect ecosystem services. Our study addresses the critical gap in the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive national analysis of LULC changes and their impacts on ecosystem service values (ESVs) in Malawi. We assessed changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs) in response to LULC changes using the benefit transfer method in ArcGIS 10.6 software. Our findings revealed a significant increase in grasslands, croplands, and urban areas and a notable decline in forests, shrubs, wetlands, and water bodies. Grassland, cropland, and built-up areas expanded by 52%, 1%, and 23.2%, respectively. In contrast, permanent wetlands, barren land, and water bodies declined by 27.6%, 34.3%, and 1%, respectively. The ESV declined from US$90.87 billion in 2001 to US$85.60 billion in 2022, marking a 5.8% reduction. Provisioning services increased by 0.5% while regulating, supporting, and cultural ecosystem service functions declined by 12.2%, 3.16%, and 3.22%, respectively. The increase in provisioning services was due to the expansion of cropland. However, the loss of regulating, supporting, and cultural services was mainly due to the loss of natural ecosystems. Thus, environmental policy should prioritise the conservation and restoration of natural ecosystems to enhance the ESV of Malawi.

Availability of the current and future water resources in Equatorial Central Africa: case of the Nyong forest catchment in Cameroon.

To anticipate disasters (drought, floods, etc.) caused by environmental forcing and reduce their impacts on its fragile economy, sub-Saharan Africa needs a good knowledge of the availability of current water resources and reliable hydroclimatic forecasts. This study has an objective to quantify the availability of water resources in the Nyong basin and predict its future evolution (2024-2050). For this, the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used. The performance of this model is satisfactory in calibration (2001-2005) and validation (2006-2010), with R2, NSE, and KGE greater than 0.64. Biases of - 11.8% and - 13.9% in calibration and validation also attest to this good performance. In the investigated basin, infiltration (GW_RCH), evapotranspiration (ETP), surface runoff (SURQ), and water yield (WYLD) are greater in the East, probably due to more abundant rainfall in this part. The flows and sediment load (SED) are greater in the middle zone and in the Southwest of the basin, certainly because of the flat topography of this part, which corresponds to the valley floor. Two climate models (CCCma and REMO) predict a decline in water resources in this basin, and two others (HIRHAM5 and RCA4) are the opposite. However, based on a statistical study carried out over the historical period (2001-2005), the CCCma model seems the most reliable. It forecasts a drop in precipitation and runoff, which do not exceed - 19% and - 18%, respectively, whatever the emission scenario (RCP4.5 or RCP8.5). Climate variability (CV) is the only forcing whose impact is visible in the dynamics of current and future flows, due to the modest current (increase of + 102 km2 in builds and roads) and future (increase of + 114 km2 in builds and roads) changes observed in the evolution of land use and land cover (LULC). The results of this study could contribute to improving water resource management in the basin studied and the region.

Influence of Landscape Patterns on Exposure to Lassa Fever Virus, Guinea.

Lassa fever virus (LASV) is the causative agent of Lassa fever, a disease endemic in West Africa. Exploring the relationships between environmental factors and LASV transmission across ecologically diverse regions can provide crucial information for the design of appropriate interventions and disease monitoring. We investigated LASV exposure in 2 ecologically diverse regions of Guinea. Our results showed that exposure to LASV was heterogenous between and within sites. LASV IgG seropositivity was 11.9% (95% CI 9.7%-14.5%) in a coastal study site in Basse-Guinée, but it was 59.6% (95% CI 55.5%-63.5%) in a forested study site located in Guinée Forestière. Seropositivity increased with age in the coastal site. We also found significant associations between exposure risk for LASV and landscape fragmentation in coastal and forested regions. Our study highlights the potential link between environmental change and LASV emergence and the urgent need for research on land management practices that reduce disease risks.

Land cover differentially affects abundance of common and rare birds.

While rare species are vulnerable to global change, large declines in common species (i.e., those with large population sizes, large geographic distributions, and/or that are habitat generalists) also are of conservation concern. Understanding if and how commonness mediates species' responses to global change, including land cover change, can help guide conservation strategies. We explored avian population responses to land cover change along a gradient from common to rare species using avian data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and land cover data from the National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States. Specifically, we used generalized linear mixed effects models to ask if species' commonness affected the relationship between land cover and counts, using the initial amount of and change in land cover surrounding each North American BBS route from 2001 to 2016. We quantified species' commonness as a continuous metric at the national scale using the logarithm (base 10) of each species' total count across all routes in the conterminous United States in 2001. For our focal 15-year period, we found that higher proportions of initial natural land cover favored (i.e., were correlated with higher) counts of rare but not common species. We also found that commonness mediated how change in human land cover, but not natural land cover, was associated with species' counts at the end of the study period. Increases in developed lands did not favor counts of any species. Increases in agriculture and declines in pasture favored counts of common but not rare species. Our findings show a signal of commonness in how species respond to a major dimension of global change. Evaluating how and why commonness mediates species' responses to land cover change can help managers design conservation portfolios that sustain the spectrum of common to rare species.

South American Dry Chaco rangelands: Positive effects of cattle trampling and transit on ecohydrological functioning.

Livestock production in drylands requires consideration of the ecological applications of ecohydrological redistribution of water. Intensive cattle trampling and the associated increase of surface runoff are common concerns for rangeland productivity and sustainability. Here, we highlight a regional livestock production system in which cattle trails and trampling surrounding an artificial impoundment are purposely managed to enhance redistribution and availability of water for cattle drinking. Based on literature synthesis and field measurements, we first describe cattle production systems and surface water redistribution in the Dry Chaco rangelands of South America, and then develop a conceptual framework to synthesize the ecohydrological impacts of livestock production on these ecosystems. Critical to this framework is the pioshere-a degraded overgrazed and overtrampled area where vegetation has difficulties growing, usually close to the water points. The Dry Chaco rangelands have three key distinctive characteristics associated with the flat sedimentary environment lacking fresh groundwater and the very extensive ranching conditions: (1) cattle drinking water is provided by artificial impoundments filled by runoff, (2) heavy trampling around the impoundment and its adjacent areas generates a piosphere that favors runoff toward the impoundment, and (3) the impoundment, piosphere, and extensive forage areas are hydrologically connected with a network of cattle trails. We propose an ecohydrological framework where cattle transit and trampling alter the natural water circulation of these ecosystems, affecting small fractions of the landscape through increased runoff (compaction in piosphere and trails), surface connectivity (convergence of trails to piosphere to impoundment), and ponding (compaction of the impoundment floor) that operate together making water harvesting and storage possible. These effects have likely generated a positive water feedback on the expansion of livestock in the region with a relatively low impact on forage production. We highlight the role of livestock transit as a geomorphological agent capable of reshaping the hydrology of flat sedimentary rangelands in ways that can be managed positively for sustainable ranching systems. We suggest that the Dry Chaco offers an alternative paradigm for rangelands in which cattle trampling may contribute to sustainable seminatural production systems with implications for other dry and flat rangelands of the world.

Solar Energy-driven Land-cover Change Could Alter Landscapes Critical to Animal Movement in the Continental United States.

The United States may produce as much as 45% of its electricity using solar energy technology by 2050, which could require more than 40,000 km2 of land to be converted to large-scale solar energy production facilities. Little is known about how such development may impact animal movement. Here, we use five spatially explicit projections of solar energy development through 2050 to assess the extent to which ground-mounted photovoltaic solar energy expansion in the continental United States may impact land-cover and alter areas important for animal movement. Our results suggest that there could be a substantial overlap between solar energy development and land important for animal movement: across projections, 7-17% of total development is expected to occur on land with high value for movement between large protected areas, while 27-33% of total development is expected to occur on land with high value for climate-change-induced migration. We also found substantial variation in the potential overlap of development and land important for movement at the state level. Solar energy development, and the policies that shape it, may align goals for biodiversity and climate change by incorporating the preservation of animal movement as a consideration in the planning process.

Holocene coastal evolution preceded the expansion of paddy field rice farming.

Rice agriculture is the foundation of Asian civilizations south of the Yangtze River. Although rice history is well documented for its lower Yangtze homeland area, the early southward expansion of paddy rice farming is poorly known. Our study investigates this process using a compilation of paleoenvironmental proxies from coastal sediment cores from southeast China to Thailand and Island Southeast Asia. We propose that a shortage of land suitable for paddy fields, caused by marine transgression, constrained rice agriculture during the mid-Holocene. Rapid expansion of coastal plains, particularly in deltaic basins, over the past three millennia has coincided with increases in land suitable for rice cultivation. Our study also helps explain the past population movements of rice farmers.

Analysis and simulation of the driving mechanism and ecological effects of land cover change in the Weihe River basin, China.

Land cover change (LCC) is both a consequence and a cause of global environmental change. This paper attempts to construct a framework to reveal the driving mechanism and ecological effects of different ecological factors under LCC and to explore the ecological characteristics of future LCC. A rule-mining framework based on a land expansion analysis strategy (LEAS) in the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to analyze the drivers of LCC. Neighborhood analysis and ecological effect index were used to investigate multiple ecological effects of LCC. Remote sensing-based ecological indices (RSEI) and the PLUS and stepwise regression model were introduced to explore and predict the integrated ecological effect of LCC. Focusing on the Weihe River basin, study's main drivers of LCC were precipitation, temperature, elevation, population, water table depth, proximity to governments and motorways, GDP, and topsoil organic carbon were the main drivers of LCC. Change directionality were similar for the effects of greenness and biomass formation but opposite for summertime and wintertime temperature. In addition, the conversion of land cover types to cropland had the most significant integrated ecological effect, followed by forest, grassland-shrubland, and other types. The RSEI is predicted to rise to 0.77 in 2030, and the areas where the ecological quality grade will improve and decrease are concentrated on the east and west sides of Ziwuling Mountain, respectively. The findings of this study have practical significance for land management and ecological protection.

Quantifying the policy-driven large scale vegetation restoration effects on evapotranspiration over drylands in China.

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key variable in the water cycle and reflects the ecosystem's feedback into the climate system. However, quantitative studies on the response of ET to large-scale vegetation restoration projects and climate change are still lacking, especially in drylands. To address this deficiency, this research examined the variation in ET since the implementation of restoration projects in the drylands of China in 2000-2018, and utilized quantitative analysis methods to investigate the effects of six environmental factors, including temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), solar radiation (RAD), vapour pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture (SM), and leaf area index (LAI) on ET. Furthermore, a new method was proposed to detect the ET change caused by land use and land cover change (LUCC). The results indicated that ET showed a significant increasing trend (3.54 mm yr-1) during 2000-2018, and PRE was identified as a main influential factor with an ET contribution rate of more than 50%, especially in areas with insignificant vegetation greening. Additionally, the LAI had a major positive impact on ET in the areas of significant vegetation greening, and the contribution rate was nearly 40%. Furthermore, large-scale vegetation restoration expanded the area of high-transpiration vegetation types, and the ΔET (net variable quantity of ET caused by LUCC) increased obviously especially for the changes from cropland and grassland to forest, and barren land to grassland. These findings provide a new perspective for future assessments and further decision making regarding vegetation restoration projects in drylands.

How does water diversion affect land use change and ecosystem service: A case study of Baiyangdian wetland, China.

Baiyangdian wetland is the biggest plant-dominated shallow freshwater wetland in Huabei Plain, providing a wide range of ecosystem services. In the past few decades, the water scarcity and eco-environmental problems resulted from climate changes and human activities have become more and more serious. To relieve the pressure of water scarcity and ecological degradation, the government has implemented ecological water diversion projects (EWDPs) since 1992. In this study, land use and land cover change (LUCC) caused by EWDPs over three decades was analyzed to quantitatively assess the impact of EWDPs on ecosystem services. Coefficients of ecosystem service value (ESV) calculation were improved for regional ESV evaluation. The results showed that the area of construction, farmland and water increased by 6171, 2827, 1393 ha, respectively, and the total ESV increased by 8.04 × 108 CNY primarily due to the increase of regulating service with water area expansion. Redundancy analysis and socio-economic comprehensive analysis showed that EWDPs impacted water area and ESV with threshold and time effect. When the water diversion exceeded the threshold, the EWDPs affected the ESV through influencing LUCC; otherwise, the EWDPs affected the ESV through influencing net primary productivity or social-economic benefits. However, the impact of EWDPs on ESV gradually weakened as time passed, which could not keep sustainability. With the establishment of Xiong'an New Area in China and implementation of carbon neutrality policy, rational EWDPs will become crucial to achieve goals of ecological restoration.

Carbon fluxes related to land use and land cover change in Baden-Württemberg.

Spatially explicit information on carbon fluxes related to land use and land cover change (LULCC) is of value for the implementation of local climate change mitigation strategies. However, estimates of these carbon fluxes are often aggregated to larger areas. We estimated committed gross carbon fluxes related to LULCC in Baden-Württemberg, Germany, using different emission factors. In doing so, we compared four different data sources regarding their suitability for estimating the fluxes: (a) a land cover dataset derived from OpenStreetMap (OSMlanduse); (b) OSMlanduse with removal of sliver polygons (OSMlanduse cleaned), (c) OSMlanduse enhanced with a remote sensing time series analysis (OSMlanduse+); (d) the LULCC product of Landschaftsveränderungsdienst (LaVerDi) from the German Federal Agency of Cartography and Geodesy. We produced a high range of carbon flux estimates, mostly caused by differences in the area of the LULCC detected by the different change methods. Except for the OSMlanduse change method, all LULCC methods achieved results that are comparable to other gross emission estimates. The carbon flux estimates of the most plausible change methods, OSMlanduse cleaned and OSMlanduse+, were 291,710 Mg C yr-1 and 93,591 Mg C yr-1, respectively. Uncertainties were mainly caused by incomplete spatial coverage of OSMlanduse, false positive LULCC due to changes and corrections made in OpenStreetMap during the study period, and a high number of sliver polygons in the OSMlanduse changes. Overall, the results showed that OSM can be successfully used to estimate LULCC carbon fluxes if data preprocessing is performed with the suggested methods.

Land use change in rapidly developing economies-a case study on land use intensification and land fallowing in Kochi, Kerala, India.

The land use/land cover change is a local driver of environmental change having cascading impacts and implications at the global level, and therefore requires appreciable consideration when perceived from sustainability perspectives. Kerala, the southernmost state of India, has undergone a dramatic transition from a traditional agrarian economy to a modern thriving economy involving the irrational exploitation of natural resources, precisely, land and its components. The present study addresses how land is being changed along an urbanization gradient in the most agglomerative city in the state, Kochi, during the last one and half decades. High-resolution remote sensing data available from the Google Earth Pro pertaining to the four time periods, i.e., 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, representing urban, suburban, and rural areas, were analysed to estimate the changes in land use land cover. A semi-structured interview was conducted at the household level to identify the major drivers of land use change. The results indicated the presence of two major and divergent trends; the first one is the intensification of land use activities at the rate of 1.37% per annum, primarily driven by urbanization and infrastructure developments, and the second one is the fallowing and abandonment of land (at the rate of 0.21% per annum) driven by the increased cost of cultivation. The rates of change are more prominent in the rural areas while the urban grids are nearing saturation occupying nearly two-thirds of the area with urban features at the expense of greenery. Though the progression with respect to urbanization and infrastructure developments is expected, the fallowing and abandonment of land is unanticipated, raising serious questions in the developmental pathways to achieve Sustainable Development Goals in the State of Kerala.

Dynamics and future prediction of LULC on Pare River basin of Arunachal Pradesh using machine learning techniques.

Anthropogenic disturbances caused by increasing population densities are a significant concern as they accelerate climate change. Thus, regular monitoring of land use/land cover (LULC) is essential to mitigate these effects. Pare River basin of Arunachala Pradesh situated in the foothills of Eastern Himalayas was selected for this study. Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-8 OLI data from 2000 (T1), 2015 (T2), and 2020 (T3) were used to prepare the LULC map. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment was utilized for classification of LULC, while the TerrSet software environment was used for change analysis and projection using the CA-MC model. The SVM classifier produced overall all classification accuracies of 0.91, 0.85, and 0.91 with kappa values of 0.88, 0.82, and 0.89 for T1, T2, and T3, respectively. The CA-MC model, which combines Markov chain and hybrid cellular automata, was calibrated with various predictor variables, including natural, proximity, and demographic variables along with T1 and T2 LULC and validated using T3 LULC. The MLP was used for calibration, and an accuracy rate of above 0.70 was employed to generate transition potential maps (TPMs). The TPMs were used to project future LULC for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Validation analysis produced satisfactory results, with Kno, Klocation, Kquality, and Kstandard values of 0.96, 0.95, 0.95, and 0.93, respectively. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis showed an excellent area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.87. The findings of this study provide important insights to decision-makers and stakeholders in addressing the impacts of LULC changes.