Sharp thresholds limit the benefit of defector avoidance in cooperation on networks.

Consider a cooperation game on a spatial network of habitat patches, where players can relocate between patches if they judge the local conditions to be unfavorable. In time, the relocation events may lead to a homogeneous state where all patches harbor the same relative densities of cooperators and defectors, or they may lead to self-organized patterns, where some patches become safe havens that maintain an elevated cooperator density. Here we analyze the transition between these states mathematically. We show that safe havens form once a certain threshold in connectivity is crossed. This threshold can be analytically linked to the structure of the patch network and specifically to certain network motifs. Surprisingly, a forgiving defector avoidance strategy may be most favorable for cooperators. Our results demonstrate that the analysis of cooperation games in ecological metacommunity models is mathematically tractable and has the potential to link topics such as macroecological patterns, behavioral evolution, and network topology.

Multispecies coexistence in fragmented landscapes.

Spatial dynamics have long been recognized as an important driver of biodiversity. However, our understanding of species' coexistence under realistic landscape configurations has been limited by lack of adequate analytical tools. To fill this gap, we develop a spatially explicit metacommunity model of multiple competing species and derive analytical criteria for their coexistence in fragmented heterogeneous landscapes. Specifically, we propose measures of niche and fitness differences for metacommunities, which clarify how spatial dynamics and habitat configuration interact with local competition to determine coexistence of species. We parameterize our model with a Bayesian approach using a 36-y time-series dataset of three Daphnia species in a rockpool metacommunity covering >500 patches. Our results illustrate the emergence of interspecific variation in extinction and recolonization processes, including their dependencies on habitat size and environmental temperature. We find that such interspecific variation contributes to the coexistence of Daphnia species by reducing fitness differences and increasing niche differences. Additionally, our parameterized model allows separating the effects of habitat destruction and temperature change on species extinction. By integrating coexistence theory and metacommunity theory, our study provides platforms to increase our understanding of species' coexistence in fragmented heterogeneous landscapes and the response of biodiversity to environmental changes.

Stabilizing microbial communities by looped mass transfer.

Building and changing a microbiome at will and maintaining it over hundreds of generations has so far proven challenging. Despite best efforts, complex microbiomes appear to be susceptible to large stochastic fluctuations. Current capabilities to assemble and control stable complex microbiomes are limited. Here, we propose a looped mass transfer design that stabilizes microbiomes over long periods of time. Five local microbiomes were continuously grown in parallel for over 114 generations and connected by a loop to a regional pool. Mass transfer rates were altered and microbiome dynamics were monitored using quantitative high-throughput flow cytometry and taxonomic sequencing of whole communities and sorted subcommunities. Increased mass transfer rates reduced local and temporal variation in microbiome assembly, did not affect functions, and overcame stochasticity, with all microbiomes exhibiting high constancy and increasing resistance. Mass transfer synchronized the structures of the five local microbiomes and nestedness of certain cell types was eminent. Mass transfer increased cell number and thus decreased net growth rates µ'. Subsets of cells that did not show net growth µ'SCx were rescued by the regional pool R and thus remained part of the microbiome. The loop in mass transfer ensured the survival of cells that would otherwise go extinct, even if they did not grow in all local microbiomes or grew more slowly than the actual dilution rate D would allow. The rescue effect, known from metacommunity theory, was the main stabilizing mechanism leading to synchrony and survival of subcommunities, despite differences in cell physiological properties, including growth rates.

Climatic effects on the synchrony and stability of temperate headwater invertebrates over four decades.

Important clues about the ecological effects of climate change can arise from understanding the influence of other Earth-system processes on ecosystem dynamics but few studies span the inter-decadal timescales required. We, therefore, examined how variation in annual weather patterns associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over four decades was linked to synchrony and stability in a metacommunity of stream invertebrates across multiple, contrasting headwaters in central Wales (UK). Prolonged warmer and wetter conditions during positive NAO winters appeared to synchronize variations in population and community composition among and within streams thereby reducing stability across levels of ecological organization. This climatically mediated synchronization occurred in all streams irrespective of acid-base status and land use, but was weaker where invertebrate communities were more functionally diverse. Wavelet linear models indicated that variation in the NAO explained up to 50% of overall synchrony in species abundances at a timescale of 4-6 years. The NAO appeared to affect ecological dynamics through local variations in temperature, precipitation and discharge, but increasing hydrochemical variability within sites during wetter winters might have contributed. Our findings illustrate how large-scale climatic fluctuations generated over the North Atlantic can affect population persistence and dynamics in inland freshwater ecosystems in ways that transcend local catchment character. Protecting and restoring functional diversity in stream communities might increase their stability against warmer, wetter conditions that are analogues of ongoing climate change. Catchment management could also dampen impacts and provide options for climate change adaptation.

Assessing mutualistic metacommunity capacity by integrating spatial and interaction networks.

We develop a spatially realistic model of mutualistic metacommunities that exploits the joint structure of spatial and interaction networks. Assuming that all species have the same colonisation and extinction parameters, this model exhibits a sharp transition between stable non-null equilibrium states and a global extinction state. This behaviour allows defining a threshold on colonisation/extinction parameters for the long-term metacommunity persistence. This threshold, the 'metacommunity capacity', extends the metapopulation capacity concept and can be calculated from the spatial and interaction networks without needing to simulate the whole dynamics. In several applications we illustrate how the joint structure of the spatial and the interaction networks affects metacommunity capacity. It results that a weakly modular spatial network and a power-law degree distribution of the interaction network provide the most favourable configuration for the long-term persistence of a mutualistic metacommunity. Our model that encodes several explicit ecological assumptions should pave the way for a larger exploration of spatially realistic metacommunity models involving multiple interaction types.

Coevolution-induced selection for and against phenotypic novelty shapes species richness in clade co-diversification.

Coevolution can occur because of species interactions. However, it remains unclear how coevolutionary processes translate into the accumulation of species richness over macroevolutionary timescales. Assuming speciation occurs as a result of genetic differentiation across space due to dispersal limitation, we examine the effects of coevolution-induced phenotypic selection on species diversification. Based on the idea that dispersers often carry novel phenotypes, we propose and test two hypotheses. (1) Stability hypothesis: selection against phenotypic novelty enhances species diversification by strengthening dispersal limitation. (2) Novelty hypothesis: selection for phenotypic novelty impedes species diversification by weakening dispersal limitation. We simulate clade co-diversification using an individual-based model, considering scenarios where phenotypic selection is shaped by neutral dynamics, mutualistic coevolution, or antagonistic coevolution, where coevolution operates through trait matching or trait difference, and where the strength of coevolutionary selection is symmetrical or asymmetrical. Our key assumption that interactions occur between an independent party (whose individuals can establish or persist independently, e.g. hosts) and a dependent party (whose individuals cannot establish or persist independently, e.g. parasites or obligate mutualists) yields two contrasting results. The stability hypothesis is supported in the dependent clade but not in the independent clade. Conversely, the novelty hypothesis is supported in the independent clade but not in the dependent clade. These results are partially corroborated by empirical dispersal data, suggesting that these mechanisms might potentially explain the diversification of some of the most species-rich clades in the Tree of Life.

Metamicrobiome diversity promotes the evolution of host-microbial mutualisms.

Ecological theory suggests that a host organism's internal spatial structure can promote the persistence of mutualistic microbes by allowing for the turnover of tissue occupied by non-beneficial or cheating microbes. This type of regulation, whereby a host preferentially rewards tissue occupied by beneficial members of its microbiome but sanctions tissue occupied by non-beneficial cheaters, is expected to generate a competition-extinction trade-off by allowing beneficial microbes to experience a lower extinction rate than competitively dominant cheaters. Using an adaptive dynamics approach, we demonstrate that although ecologically stable, microbial regulation via sanctioning is not stable in any evolutionary sense, as each individual host will be under pressure to reduce the costs incurred from cheater suppression in order to maximize its own fitness at the expense of the rest of the host population. However, increasing the diversity of non-beneficial cheaters in the host population metamicrobiome can lead to an increase in the relative fitness of hosts that actively sanction non-performing tissue, thus facilitating the evolutionary emergence and persistence of such strategies in host-microbial systems. These counter-intuitive results demonstrate how diversity at multiple levels of biological organization and spatiotemporal scales can interact to facilitate the establishment and maintenance of mutualistic relationships.

Comparative analysis of cyanobacterial communities in gypsum outcrops: insights from sites in Israel and Poland.

Today, the biodiversity of endolithic microbial colonisations are only partly understood. In this study, we used a combination of molecular community metabarcoding using the 16S rRNA gene, light microscopy, CT-scan analysis, and Raman spectroscopy to describe gypsum endolithic communities in 2 sites-southern Poland and northern Israel. The obtained results have shown that despite different geographical areas, climatic conditions, and also physical features of colonized gypsum outcrops, both of these sites have remarkably similar microbial and pigment compositions. Cyanobacteria dominate both of the gypsum habitats, followed by Chloroflexi and Pseudomonadota. Among cyanobacteria, Thermosynechococcaceae were more abundant in Israel while Chroococcidiopsidaceae in Poland. Interestingly, no Gloeobacteraceae sequences have been found in Poland, only in Israel. Some of the obtained 16S rRNA gene sequences of cyanobacteria matched previously detected sequences from endolithic communities in various substrates and geographical regions, supporting the hypothesis of global metacommunity, but more data are still needed. Using Raman spectroscopy, cyanobacterial UV-screening pigments-scytonemin and gloeocapsin have been detected alongside carotenoids, chlorophyll a and melanin. These pigments can serve as potential biomarkers for basic taxonomic identification of cyanobacteria. Overall, this study provides more insight into the diversity of cyanobacterial endolithic colonisations in gypsum across different areas.

Climate-associated variation in the drivers of benthic macroinvertebrate species-area relationships across shallow freshwater lakes.

The island species-area relationship (ISAR) describes how species richness increases with increasing area of a given island or island-like habitat, such as freshwater lakes. While the ISAR is one of the most common phenomena observed in ecology, there is variation in both the form of the relationship and its underlying mechanisms. We compiled a global data set of benthic macroinvertebrates from 524 shallow freshwater lakes, ranging from 1 to 293,300 ha in area. We used individual-based rarefaction to determine the degree to which ISAR was influenced by mechanisms other than passive sampling (larger islands passively sample more individuals from the regional pool and, therefore, have more species than smaller islands), which would bias results away from expected relationships between rarefied species richness (and other measures that capture relative abundances) and lake area. We also examined how climate may alter the shape of the ISARs. We found that both rarefied species richness (the number of species standardized by area or number of individuals) and a measure of evenness emphasizing common species exhibit shallow slopes in relationships with lake area, suggesting that the expected ISARs in these lakes most likely result from passive sampling. While there was considerable variation among ISARs across the investigated lakes, we found an overall positive rarefied ISAR for lakes in warm (i.e. tropical/subtropical) regions (n = 195), and in contrast, an overall negative rarefied ISAR in cool (i.e. north temperate) lakes (n = 329). This suggested that mechanisms beyond passive sampling (e.g. colonization-extinction dynamics and/or heterogeneity) were more likely to operate in warm lakes. One possible reason for this difference is that the area-dependent intensity of fish predation, which can lead to flatter ISARs, is weaker in warmer relative to cooler lakes. Our study illustrates the importance of understanding both the pattern and potential processes underlying the ISARs of freshwater lakes in different climatic regions. Furthermore, it provides a baseline for understanding how further changes to the ecosystem (i.e. in lake area or climate) might influence biodiversity patterns.

Community connectivity and local heterogeneity explain animal species co-occurrences within pond communities.

Metacommunity processes have the potential to determine most features of the community structure. However, species diversity has been the dominant focus of studies. Nestedness, modularity and checkerboard distribution of species occurrences are main components of biodiversity organisation. Within communities, these patterns emerge from the interaction between functional diversity, spatial heterogeneity and resource availability. Additionally, the connectivity determines the pool of species for community assembly and, eventually, the pattern of species co-occurrence within communities. Despite the recognised theoretical expectations, the change in occurrence patterns within communities along ecological gradients has seldom been considered. Here, we analyse the spatial occurrence of animal species along sampling units within 18 temporary ponds and its relationship with pond environments and geographic isolation. Isolated ponds presented a nested organisation of species with low spatial segregation-modularity and checkerboard-and the opposite was found for communities with high connectivity. A pattern putatively explained by high functional diversity in ponds with large connectivity and heterogeneity, which determines that species composition tracks changes in microhabitats. On the contrary, nestedness is promoted in dispersal-limited communities with low functional diversity, where microhabitat filters mainly affect richness without spatial replacement between functional groups. Vegetation biomass promotes nestedness, probably due to the observed increase in spatial variance in biomass with the mean biomass. Similarly, the richness of vegetation reduced the spatial segregation of animals within communities. This result may be due to the high plant diversity of the pond that is observed similarly along all sampling units, which promotes the spatial co-occurrence of species at this scale. In the study system, the spatial arrangement of species within communities is related to local drivers as heterogeneity and metacommunity processes by means of dispersal between communities. Patterns of species co-occurrence are interrelated with community biodiversity and species interactions, and consequently with most functional and structural properties of communities. These results indicate that understanding the interplay between metacommunity processes and co-occurrence patterns is probably more important than previously thought to understand biodiversity assembly and functioning.

Los procesos metacomunitarios tienen el potencial de determinar la mayoría de las características de la estructura de las comunidades. Sin embargo, los trabajos se han enfocado principalmente en los patrones de diversidad de especies. El anidamiento, la modularidad y la distribución en damero de la ocurrencia espacial de las especies son propiedades básicas de las comunidades. Estos patrones surgen de la interacción entre la diversidad funcional, la heterogeneidad espacial y la disponibilidad de recursos dentro de las comunidades. Además, el pool de especies disponibles para el ensamblaje está determinado por la conectividad de la comunidad, afectando así su patrón de co­ocurrencia de especies. A pesar de las reconocidas expectativas teóricas, el cambio en los patrones de ocurrencia dentro de las comunidades a lo largo de gradientes ecológicos ha sido poco considerado. Aquí, analizamos la ocurrencia espacial de especies animales dentro de 18 charcos temporales y su relación con las características ambientales y el aislamiento geográfico de los charcos. Los charcos aislados presentaron alto anidamiento espacial mientras que los charcos de alta conectividad una distribución de ocurrencias modular y en damero. Por un lado, la baja diversidad funcional en charcos aislados, determinaría que los filtros microambientales afecten la riqueza de especies sin reemplazo espacial entre grupos funcionales, promoviendo un arreglo anidado de ocurrencias. Por otro lado, la alta diversidad funcional en charcos con alta conectividad y heterogeneidad permitiría el reemplazo espacial de especies en gradientes microambientales, determinando los patrones de segregación observados. La biomasa vegetal promueve el anidamiento, probablemente debido al aumento observado en la variación espacial de la biomasa con la biomasa media. La riqueza vegetal también redujo la segregación espacial de los animales dentro de las comunidades. Este resultado puede deberse a que la alta diversidad de plantas de los charcos es también observada a nivel de unidades muestreales, favoreciendo esto la coexistencia espacial de especies. El arreglo espacial de especies dentro de las comunidades estudiadas estaría determinado tanto por factores locales como la heterogeneidad, como por procesos regionales operando a través de la dispersión de individuos entre comunidades. Los patrones de co­ocurrencia de especies están interrelacionados con la diversidad comunitaria y las interacciones bióticas, y consecuentemente con la mayoría de las propiedades estructurales y funcionales de las comunidades. Este estudio evidencia la importancia de la conexión entre procesos metacomunitarios y la co­ocurrencia espacial de especies para comprender el ensamblaje y funcionamiento de la biodiversidad.

Near-natural streams: Spatial factors are key in shaping multiple facets of zooplankton α and ß diversity.

In near-natural basins, zooplankton are key hubs for maintaining aquatic food webs and organic matter cycles. However, the spatial patterns and drivers of zooplankton in streams are poorly understood. This study registered 165 species of zooplankton from 147 sampling sites (Protozoa, Rotifers, Cladocera and Copepods), integrating multiple dimensions (i.e., taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic) and components (i.e., total, turnover, and nestedness) of α and ß diversity. This study aims to reveal spatial patterns, mechanisms, correlations, and relative contribution of abiotic factors (i.e., local environment, geo-climatic, land use, and spatial factors) through spatial interpolation (ordinary kriging), mantel test, and variance partitioning analysis (VPA). The study found that α diversity is concentrated in the north, while ß diversity is more in the west, which may be affected by typical habitat, hydrological dynamics and underlying mechanisms. Taxonomic and phylogenetic ß diversity is dominated by turnover, and metacommunity heterogeneity is the result of substitution of species and phylogeny along environmental spatial gradients. Taxonomic and phylogenetic ß diversity were strongly correlated (r from 0.91 to 0.95), mainly explained by historical/spatial isolation processes, community composition, generation time, and reproductive characteristics, and this correlation provides surrogate information for freshwater conservation priorities. In addition, spatial factors affect functional and phylogenetic α diversity (26%, 28%), and environmental filtering and spatial processes combine to drive taxonomic α diversity (10%) and phylogenetic ß diversity (11%). Studies suggest that spatial factors are key to controlling the community structure of zooplankton assemblages in near-natural streams, and that the relative role of local environments may depend on the dispersal capacity of species. In terms of diversity conservation, sites with high variation in uniqueness should be protected (i) with a focus on the western part of the thousand islands lake catchment and (ii) increasing effective dispersal between communities to facilitate genetic and food chain transmission.

Emergent dual scaling of riverine biodiversity.

A prevailing paradigm suggests that species richness increases with area in a decelerating way. This ubiquitous power law scaling, the species-area relationship, has formed the foundation of many conservation strategies. In spatially complex ecosystems, however, the area may not be the sole dimension to scale biodiversity patterns because the scale-invariant complexity of fractal ecosystem structure may drive ecological dynamics in space. Here, we use theory and analysis of extensive fish community data from two distinct geographic regions to show that riverine biodiversity follows a robust scaling law along the two orthogonal dimensions of ecosystem size and complexity (i.e., the dual scaling law). In river networks, the recurrent merging of various tributaries forms fractal branching systems, where the prevalence of branching (ecosystem complexity) represents a macroscale control of the ecosystem's habitat heterogeneity. In the meantime, ecosystem size dictates metacommunity size and total habitat diversity, two factors regulating biodiversity in nature. Our theory predicted that, regardless of simulated species' traits, larger and more branched "complex" networks support greater species richness due to increased space and environmental heterogeneity. The relationships were linear on logarithmic axes, indicating power law scaling by ecosystem size and complexity. In support of this theoretical prediction, the power laws have consistently emerged in riverine fish communities across the study regions (Hokkaido Island in Japan and the midwestern United States) despite hosting different fauna with distinct evolutionary histories. The emergence of dual scaling law may be a pervasive property of branching networks with important implications for biodiversity conservation.

Coevolution of species colonisation rates controls food-chain length in spatially structured food webs.

How the complexity of food webs depends on environmental variables is a long-standing ecological question. It is unclear though how food-chain length should vary with adaptive evolution of the constitutive species. Here we model the evolution of species colonisation rates and its consequences on occupancies and food-chain length in metacommunities. When colonisation rates can evolve, longer food-chains can persist. Extinction, perturbation and habitat loss all affect evolutionarily stable colonisation rates, but the strength of the competition-colonisation trade-off has a major role: weaker trade-offs yield longer chains. Although such eco-evo dynamics partly alleviates the spatial constraint on food-chain length, it is no magic bullet: the highest, most vulnerable, trophic levels are also those that least benefit from evolution. We provide qualitative predictions regarding how trait evolution affects the response of communities to disturbance and habitat loss. This highlights the importance of eco-evolutionary dynamics at metacommunity level in determining food-chain length.

Disentangling spatiotemporal dynamics in metacommunities through a species-patch network approach.

Colonization and extinction at local and regional scales, and gains and losses of patches are important processes in the spatiotemporal dynamics of metacommunities. However, analytical challenges remain in quantifying such spatiotemporal dynamics when species extinction-colonization and patch gain and loss processes act simultaneously. Recent advances in network analysis show great potential in disentangling the roles of colonization, extinction, and patch dynamics in metacommunities. Here, we developed a species-patch network approach to quantify metacommunity dynamics including (i) temporal changes in network structure, and (ii) temporal beta diversity of species-patch links and its components that reflect species extinction-colonization and patch gain and loss. Application of the methods to simulated datasets demonstrated that the approach was informative about metacommunity assembly processes. Based on three empirical datasets, our species-patch network approach provided additional information about metacommunity dynamics through distinguishing the effects of species colonization and extinction at different scales from patch gains and losses and how specific environmental factors related to species-patch network structure. In conclusion, our species-patch network framework provides effective methods for monitoring and revealing long-term metacommunity dynamics by quantifying gains and losses of both species and patches under local and global environmental change.

Priority Effects Determine How Dispersal Affects Biodiversity in Seasonal Metacommunities.

AbstractThe arrival order of species frequently determines the outcome of their interactions. This phenomenon, called the priority effect, is ubiquitous in nature and determines local community structure, but we know surprisingly little about how it influences biodiversity across different spatial scales. Here, we use a seasonal metacommunity model to show that biodiversity patterns and the homogenizing effect of high dispersal depend on the specific mechanisms underlying priority effects. When priority effects are driven only by positive frequency dependence, dispersal-diversity relationships are sensitive to initial conditions but generally show a hump-shaped relationship: biodiversity declines when dispersal rates become high and allow the dominant competitor to exclude other species across patches. When spatiotemporal variation in phenological differences alters species' interaction strengths (trait-dependent priority effects), local, regional, and temporal diversity are surprisingly insensitive to variation in dispersal, regardless of the initial numeric advantage. Thus, trait-dependent priority effects can strongly reduce the effect of dispersal on biodiversity, preventing the homogenization of metacommunities. Our results suggest an alternative mechanism that maintains local and regional diversity without environmental heterogeneity, highlighting that accounting for the mechanisms underlying priority effects is fundamental to understanding patterns of biodiversity.

Mutualistic coevolution and community diversity favour persistence in metacommunities under environmental changes.

Linking local to regional ecological and evolutionary processes is key to understand the response of Earth's biodiversity to environmental changes. Here we integrate evolution and mutualistic coevolution in a model of metacommunity dynamics and use numerical simulations to understand how coevolution can shape species distribution and persistence in landscapes varying in space and time. Our simulations show that coevolution and species richness can synergistically shape distribution patterns by increasing colonization and reducing extinction of populations in metacommunities. Although conflicting selective pressures emerging from mutualisms may increase mismatches with the local environment and the rate of local extinctions, coevolution increases trait matching among mutualists at the landscape scale, counteracting local maladaptation and favouring colonization and range expansions. Our results show that by facilitating colonization, coevolution can also buffer the effects of environmental changes, preventing species extinctions and the collapse of metacommunities. Our findings reveal the mechanisms whereby coevolution can favour persistence under environmental changes and highlight that these positive effects are greater in more diverse systems that retain landscape connectivity.

DNA metabarcoding reveals impact of local recruitment, dispersal, and hydroperiod on assembly of a zooplankton metacommunity.

Understanding the environmental impact on the assembly of local communities in relation to their spatial and temporal connectivity is still a challenge in metacommunity ecology. This study aims to unravel underlying metacommunity processes and environmental factors that result in observed zooplankton communities. Unlike most metacommunity studies, we jointly examine active and dormant zooplankton communities using a DNA metabarcoding approach to overcome limitations of morphological species identification. We applied two-fragment (COI and 18S) metabarcoding to monitor communities of 24 kettle holes over a two-year period to unravel (i) spatial and temporal connectivity of the communities, (ii) environmental factors influencing local communities, and (iii) dominant underlying metacommunity processes in this system. We found a strong separation of zooplankton communities from kettle holes of different hydroperiods (degree of permanency) throughout the season, while the community composition within single kettle holes did not differ between years. Species richness was primarily dependent on pH and permanency, while species diversity (Shannon Index) was influenced by kettle hole location. Community composition was impacted by kettle hole size and surrounding field crops. Environmental processes dominated temporal and spatial processes. Sediment communities showed a different composition compared to water samples but did not differ between ephemeral and permanent kettle holes. Our results suggest that communities are mainly structured by environmental filtering based on pH, kettle hole size, surrounding field crops, and permanency. Environmental filtering based on specific conditions in individual kettle holes seems to be the dominant process in community assembly in the studied zooplankton metacommunity.

Three perspectives on the prediction of chemical effects in ecosystems.

The increasing production, use and emission of synthetic chemicals into the environment represents a major driver of global change. The large number of synthetic chemicals, limited knowledge on exposure patterns and effects in organisms and their interaction with other global change drivers hamper the prediction of effects in ecosystems. However, recent advances in biomolecular and computational methods are promising to improve our capacity for prediction. We delineate three idealised perspectives for the prediction of chemical effects: the suborganismal, organismal and ecological perspective, which are currently largely separated. Each of the outlined perspectives includes essential and complementary theories and tools for prediction but captures only part of the phenomenon of chemical effects. Links between the perspectives may foster predictive modelling of chemical effects in ecosystems and extrapolation between species. A major challenge for the linkage is the lack of data sets simultaneously covering different levels of biological organisation (here referred to as biological levels) as well as varying temporal and spatial scales. Synthesising the three perspectives, some central aspects and associated types of data seem particularly necessary to improve prediction. First, suborganism- and organism-level responses to chemicals need to be recorded and tested for relationships with chemical groups and organism traits. Second, metrics that are measurable at many biological levels, such as energy, need to be scrutinised for their potential to integrate across levels. Third, experimental data on the simultaneous response over multiple biological levels and spatiotemporal scales are required. These could be collected in nested and interconnected micro- and mesocosm experiments. Lastly, prioritisation of processes involved in the prediction framework needs to find a balance between simplification and capturing the essential complexity of a system. For example, in some cases, eco-evolutionary dynamics and interactions may need stronger consideration. Prediction needs to move from a static to a real-world eco-evolutionary view.

Spatial insurance against a heatwave differs between trophic levels in experimental aquatic communities.

Climate change-related heatwaves are major threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. However, our current understanding of the mechanisms governing community resistance to and recovery from extreme temperature events is still rudimentary. The spatial insurance hypothesis postulates that diverse regional species pools can buffer ecosystem functioning against local disturbances through the immigration of better-adapted taxa. Yet, experimental evidence for such predictions from multi-trophic communities and pulse-type disturbances, like heatwaves, is largely missing. We performed an experimental mesocosm study to test whether species dispersal from natural lakes prior to a simulated heatwave could increase the resistance and recovery of plankton communities. As the buffering effect of dispersal may differ among trophic groups, we independently manipulated the dispersal of organisms from lower (phytoplankton) and higher (zooplankton) trophic levels. The experimental heatwave suppressed total community biomass by having a strong negative effect on zooplankton biomass, probably due to a heat-induced increase in metabolic costs, resulting in weaker top-down control on phytoplankton. While zooplankton dispersal did not alleviate the negative heatwave effects on zooplankton biomass, phytoplankton dispersal enhanced biomass recovery at the level of primary producers, providing partial evidence for spatial insurance. The differential responses to dispersal may be linked to the much larger regional species pool of phytoplankton than of zooplankton. Our results suggest high recovery capacity of community biomass independent of dispersal. However, community composition and trophic structure remained altered due to the heatwave, implying longer-lasting changes in ecosystem functioning.

Combined effects of landscape composition and agrochemicals on frog communities amid sugarcane-dominated agroecosystems.

Global demand for crops will continue increasing over the next few decades to cover both food and biofuel needs. This demand will put further pressure to expand arable land and replace natural habitats. However, we are only beginning to understand the combined effects of agrochemicals and land-use change on tropical freshwater biodiversity. In this study, we analyzed how pond-dwelling anuran larvae responded to pond characteristics, landscape composition, and agrochemical contamination in a sugarcane-dominated agroecosystem in Brazil. Then we used an information theoretical approach with generalized linear models to relate species richness and abundance to predictor variables. The variation in tadpole abundance was associated with both agrochemical concentration (e.g., ametryn, diuron, and malathion) and landscape variables (e.g., percentage of forest, percentage of agriculture, and distance to closest forest). The relationship between species abundance and agrochemicals was species-specific. For example, the abundances of Scinax fuscovarius and Physalaemus nattereri were negatively associated with ametryn, and Dendropsophus nanus was negatively associated with tebuthiuron, whereas that of Leptodactylus fuscus was positively associated with malathion. Conversely, species richness was associated with distance to forest fragments and aquatic vegetation heterogeneity, but not agrochemicals. Although we were unable to assign a specific mechanism to the variation in tadpole abundance based on field observations, the lower abundance of three species in ponds with high concentrations of agrochemicals suggest they negatively impact some frog species inhabiting agroecosystems. We recommend conserving ponds near forest fragments, with abundant stratified vegetation, and far from agrochemical runoffs to safeguard more sensitive pond-breeding species.