Coupling Mountain Pine Beetle and Forest Population Dynamics Predicts Transient Outbreaks that are Likely to Increase in Number with Climate Change.

Mountain pine beetle (MPB) in Canada have spread well beyond their historical range. Accurate modelling of the long-term dynamics of MPB is critical for assessing the risk of further expansion and informing management strategies, particularly in the context of climate change and variable forest resilience. Most previous models have focused on capturing a single outbreak without tree replacement. While these models are useful for understanding MPB biology and outbreak dynamics, they cannot accurately model long-term forest dynamics. Past models that incorporate forest growth tend to simplify beetle dynamics. We present a new model that couples forest growth to MPB population dynamics and accurately captures key aspects of MPB biology, including a threshold for the number of beetles needed to overcome tree defenses and beetle aggregation that facilitates mass attacks. These mechanisms lead to a demographic Allee effect, which is known to be important in beetle population dynamics. We show that as forest resilience decreases, a fold bifurcation emerges and there is a stable fixed point with a non-zero MPB population. We derive conditions for the existence of this equilibrium. We then simulate biologically relevant scenarios and show that the beetle population approaches this equilibrium with transient boom and bust cycles with period related to the time of forest recovery. As forest resilience decreases, the Allee threshold also decreases. Thus, if host resilience decreases under climate change, for example under increased stress from drought, then the lower Allee threshold makes transient outbreaks more likely to occur in the future.

Beauveria bassiana exhibits strong virulence against Dendroctonus ponderosae in greenhouse and field experiments.

The mountain pine beetle (MPB) has infested over 16 million hectares of pine forests in western Canada, killing over 50% of mature lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta, in British Columbia alone. There are few tools available to manage irruptive bark beetle populations and to mitigate tree mortality. Beauveria bassiana is an entomopathogenic fungus that causes mortality to several bark beetle species. However, the potential for B. bassiana as a biocontrol agent against pine beetle populations is unknown. We selected three strains of B. bassiana from several culture collections and evaluated their conidial stability under cold storage, in planta (greenhouse, and pine bolts) and in natura (forest stand, pine bolts, and live pines) conditions. The stability assays showed that all fungal strains maintained a minimum effective conidial yield through the assay durations (3-12 weeks). In addition, we adapted a biphasic liquid-solid fermentation approach for the large-scale production of conidial biomass, yielding up to a 100-fold increase in production. In greenhouse virulence assays, the mean lethal time of MPBs was reduced to 3-4 days upon treatment with B. bassiana, where high B. bassiana-associated mycosis was also observed. Furthermore, the application of B. bassiana formulation substantially affected the gallery network of MPBs in bolts in the field, resulting in shorter larval galleries and significantly reduced offspring production. Indeed, high titer treatments reduced the mean larvae per gallery to virtually zero. Together these results demonstrate that B. bassiana may be a viable biocontrol tool to reduce mountain pine beetle populations in pine forests in western Canada. KEY POINTS: • Three B. bassiana strains identified to be stable at various test conditions. • Large-scale conidial biomass production using liquid-solid biphasic fermentation. • Reproductive success of D. ponderosae significantly reduced by B. bassiana formulation.

Does the legacy of historical thinning treatments foster resilience to bark beetle outbreaks in subalpine forests?

Promoting ecological resilience to increasing disturbance activity is a key management priority under warming climate. Across the Northern Hemisphere, tree mortality from widespread bark beetle outbreaks raises concerns for how forest management can foster resilience to future outbreaks. Density reduction (i.e., thinning) treatments can increase vigor of remaining trees, but the longevity of treatment efficacy for reducing susceptibility to future disturbance remains a key knowledge gap. Using one of the longest-running replicated experiments in old-growth subalpine forests, we measured stand structure following a recent (early 2000s) severe mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak to examine the legacy of historical (1940s) thinning treatments on two components of resilience. We asked: 'How did historical thinning intensity affect (1) tree-scale survival probability and stand-scale survival proportion (collectively "resistance" to outbreak) for susceptible trees (lodgepole pine [Pinus contorta] ≥ 12 cm diameter) and (2) post-outbreak stand successional trajectories?' Overall outbreak severity was high (MPB killed 59% of susceptible individuals and 78% of susceptible basal area), and historical thinning had little effect on tree-scale and stand-scale resistance. Tree-scale survival probability decreased sharply with increasing tree diameter and did not differ from the control (uncut stands) in the historical thinning treatments. Stand-scale proportion of surviving susceptible trees and basal area did not differ from the control in historically thinned stands, except for treatments that removed nearly all susceptible trees, in which survival proportion approximately doubled. Despite limited effects on resistance to MPB outbreak, the legacy of historical treatments shifted dominance from large-diameter to small-diameter lodgepole pine by the time of outbreak, resulting in historically thinned stands with ~2× greater post-outbreak live basal area than control stands. MPB-driven mortality of large-diameter lodgepole pine in control stands and density-dependent mortality of small-diameter trees in historically thinned stands led to convergence in post-outbreak live tree stand structure. One exception was the heaviest historical thinning treatments (59-77% basal area removed), for which sapling dominance of shade-tolerant, unsusceptible conifers was lower than control stands. After six decades, thinning treatments have had minimal effect on resistance to bark beetle outbreaks, but leave persistent legacies in shaping post-outbreak successional trajectories.

Constitutive and Induced Defenses in Long-lived Pines Do Not Trade Off but Are Influenced by Climate.

Plants resist herbivores and pathogens by using constitutive (baseline) and inducible (change in defense after an attack) defenses. Inducibility has long been predicted to trade off with constitutive defense, reflecting the economic use of resources. However, empirical evidence for such tradeoffs is variable, and we still lack understanding about when and where defense trade-offs occur. We tested for tradeoffs between constitutive and induced defenses in natural populations of three species of long-lived pines (Pinus balfouriana, P. flexilis, P. longaeva) that differ greatly in constitutive defense and resistance to mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae). We also assessed how climate influenced constitutive and inducible defenses. At seven high-elevation sites in the western U.S., we simulated MPB attack to induce defenses and measured concentrations of terpene-based phloem defenses on days 0, 15, and 30. Constitutive and induced defenses did not trade off among or within species. Simulated MPB attack induced large increases in defense concentrations in all species independent of constitutive levels. MPB and its symbiotic fungi typically kill trees and thus could be selective forces maintaining strong inducibility within and among species. The contrasting constitutive concentrations in these species could be driven by the adaptation for specializing in harsh, high-elevation environments (e.g., P. balfouriana and P. longaeva) or by competition (e.g., P. flexilis), though these hypotheses have not been empirically examined. Climate influenced defenses, with the greatest concentrations of constitutive and induced defenses occurring at the coldest and driest sites. The interactions between climate and defenses have implications for these species under climate change.

Alpine treeline ecotones are potential refugia for a montane pine species threatened by bark beetle outbreaks.

Warming-induced mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae; MPB) outbreaks have caused extensive mortality of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis; WBP) throughout the species' range. In the highest mountains where WBP occur, they cross alpine treeline ecotones (ATEs) where growth forms transition from trees to shrub-like krummholz, some of which survived recent MPB outbreaks. This observation motivated the hypothesis that ATEs are refugia for WBP because krummholz growth forms escape MPB attack and have the potential to produce viable seed. To test this hypothesis, we surveyed WBP mortality along transects from the ATE edge (locally highest krummholz WBP) downslope into the forest and, to distinguish if survival mechanisms are unique to ATEs, across other forest ecotones (OFEs) from the edge of WBP occurrence into the forest. We replicated this design at 10 randomly selected sites in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains. We also surveyed reproduction in a subset of ATE sites. Mortality was nearly absent in upper ATEs (mean ± SE percent dead across all sites of 0.03% ± 0.03% 0-100 m from the edge and 14.1% ± 1.7% 100-500 m from the edge) but was above 20% along OFEs (21.4 ± 5.2% 0-100 m and 32.4 ± 2.7% 100-500 m from the edge). We observed lower reproduction in upper ATEs (16 ± 9.9 cones/ha and 12.9 ± 5.3 viable seeds/cone 0-100 m from the edge) compared to forests below (317.1 ± 64.4 cones/ha and 32.5 ± 2.5 viable seeds/cone 100-500 m from the edge). Uniquely high WBP survival supports the hypothesis that ATEs serve as refugia because krummholz growth forms escape MPB attack. However, low reproduction suggests ATE refugia function over longer time periods. Beyond our WBP system, we propose that plant populations in marginal environments are candidate refugia if distinct phenotypes result in reduced disturbance impacts.

The Signature of Endemic Populations in the Spread of Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks.

The mountain pine beetle (MPB) is among the most destructive eruptive forest pests in North America. A recent increase in the frequency and severity of outbreaks, combined with an eastward range expansion towards untouched boreal pine forests, has spurred a great interest by government, industry and academia into the population ecology of this tree-killing bark beetle. Modern approaches to studying the spread of the MPB often involve the analysis of large-scale, high-resolution datasets on landscape-level damage to pine forests. This creates a need for new modelling tools to handle the unique challenges associated with large sample sizes and spatial effects. In two companion papers (Koch et al. in Environ Ecol Stat. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-020-00456-2 , 2020a; J R Soc Interface 17(170):20200434, 2020b), we explain how the computational challenges of dispersal and spatial autocorrelation can be addressed using separable kernels. In this paper, we use these ideas to capture nonstationary patterns in the dispersal flights of MPB. This facilitates a landscape-level inference of subtle properties of MPB attack behaviour based on aerial surveys of killed pine. Using this model, we estimate the size of the cryptic endemic MPB population, which formerly has been measurable only by means of costly and time-intensive ground surveys.

Selection of entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana (Deuteromycotina: Hyphomycetes) for the biocontrol of Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) in Western Canada.

The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, has infested over ~16 Mha of pine forests in British Columbia killing >50% of mature lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta, trees in affected stands. At present, it is functionally an invasive species in Alberta, killing and reproducing in evolutionarily naïve populations of lodgepole pine (P. contorta), novel jack pine (P. banksiana), and their hybrids. The entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana has shown some potential as a biocontrol agent of several bark beetle species. In this study, nine isolates of B. bassiana were examined for insect virulence characteristics, including conidiation rate, pigmentation, and infection rate in laboratory-reared D. ponderosae, to assess for their potential as biocontrol agents. The strains were categorized into three phenotypic groups based on pigmentation, conidial density, and myceliation rate. Virulence screening utilizing insect-based agar medium (D. ponderosae and European honeybee Apis mellifera carcasses) revealed no difference in selection of fungal growth. However, infection studies on D. ponderosae and A. mellifera showed contrasting results. In vivo A. mellifera infection model revealed ~5% mortality, representing the natural death rate of the hive population, whereas laboratory-reared D. ponderosae showed 100% mortality and mycosis. The LT50 (median lethal time 50) ranges from 2 to 5 ± 0.33 days, and LT100 ranges from 4 to 6 ± 0.5 days. We discuss the selective advantages of the three phenotypic groups in terms of virulence, pigmentation, conidial abundance, and tolerance to abiotic factors like UV and host tree monoterpenes. These results can further provide insights into the development of several phenotypically diverse B. bassiana strains in controlling the spread of the invasive D. ponderosae in Western Canada. KEY POINTS: • Three B. bassiana morphotype groups have been demonstrated to kill D. ponderosae. • A range of effective lethal times (LT50 and LT100) was established against D. ponderosae. • Variable tolerance to UV light and pine monoterpenes were observed in B. bassiana.

Mechanisms and consequences of flight polyphenisms in an outbreaking bark beetle species.

Flight polyphenisms naturally occur as discrete or continuous traits in insects. Discrete flight polyphenisms include winged and wingless morphs, whereas continuous flight polyphenisms can take the form of short- or long-distance fliers. The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) exhibits polyphenic variation in flight distance but the consequences of this flight variation on life history strategies of beetles is unknown. This study assessed the effect of flight on two particular aspects of beetle biology: (1) an energetic trade-off between flight distance and host colonisation capacity; and (2) the relationship between flight distance and pheromone production. A 23 h flight treatment was applied to a subset of beetles using computer-linked flight mills. After flight treatment, both flown and unflown (control) beetles were given the opportunity to colonise bolts of host trees, and beetles that entered hosts were aerated to collect pheromone. A trade-off occurred between initiation of host colonisation and percentage body mass lost during flight, which indicates energy use during flight affects host acceptance in female mountain pine beetles. Furthermore, production of the aggregation pheromone trans-verbenol by female beetles was influenced by both percentage body mass lost during flight and flight distance. Male production of exo-brevicomin was affected by beetle condition following flight but not by the energy used during flight. These novel results give new insight into the polyphenic flight behaviour of mountain pine beetles. Flight variation is adaptive by acting to maintain population levels through safe and risky host colonisation strategies. These findings suggest mechanisms that facilitate the extremities of the continuous flight polyphenism spectrum. These opposing mechanisms appear to maintain the high variation in flight exhibited by this species.

Snagfall the first decade after severe bark beetle infestation of high-elevation forests in Colorado, USA.

The persistence and fall rate of snags (standing dead trees) generated during bark beetle outbreaks have consequences for the behavior, effects, and suppression of potential wildfires, hazard tree and timber salvage operations, wildlife habitat, and numerous ecosystem processes. However, post-beetle snagfall dynamics are poorly understood in most forest types. We tagged standing live and dead lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), including beetle-killed pine snags following the peak of a recent mountain pine bark beetle outbreak in watersheds at the Fraser Experimental Forest in northcentral Colorado and sampled snagfall 10 and 12 years later. Bark beetle attacks began in 2003, peaked by 2006, and killed 78% of overstory lodgepole pine in 133 plots distributed across a range of stand and site conditions. Of those snags, only 17% fell between 2007 and 2018. Most snags broke at ground level, due to butt rot, and were oriented downhill. In contrast, snags that tipped up or snapped off above the ground were oriented with the prevailing winds. Equal numbers of snags fell singly and in multiple-tree groups, and equal numbers remained elevated rather than in contact with the ground. Lodgepole pine snagfall was 1.6-times higher on steep slopes (>40%) where dead pine density was higher, compared to flatter sites. Based on our findings and previous research, we estimate that one-half the beetle-killed lodgepole pine in high-elevation forests such as those at Fraser may fall within 15-20 yr of beetle infestation, but that some pine snags are likely to persist for decades longer. Post-outbreak snagfall dynamics create a multiple-decade legacy of bark beetle outbreaks that will persist longer in high-elevation compared to lower-elevation forests.

The effects of ectomycorrhizal fungal networks on seedling establishment are contingent on species and severity of overstorey mortality.

For tree seedlings in boreal forests, ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal networks may promote, while root competition may impede establishment. Thus, disruption to EM fungal networks may decrease seedling establishment owing to the loss of positive interactions among neighbors. Widespread tree mortality can disrupt EM networks, but it is not clear whether seedling establishment will be limited by the loss of positive interactions or increased by the loss of negative interactions with surrounding roots. Depending upon the relative influence of these mechanisms, widespread tree mortality may have complicated consequences on seedling establishment, and in turn, the composition of future forests. To discern between these possible outcomes and the drivers of seedling establishment, we determined the relative importance of EM fungal networks, root presence, and the bulk soil on the establishment of lodgepole pine and white spruce seedlings along a gradient of beetle-induced tree mortality. We manipulated seedling contact with EM fungal networks and roots through the use of mesh-fabric cylinders installed in soils of lodgepole pine forests experiencing a range of overstorey tree mortality caused by mountain pine beetle. Lodgepole pine seedling survival was higher with access to EM fungal networks in undisturbed pine forests in comparison with that in beetle-killed stands. That is, overstorey tree mortality shifted fungal networks from being a benefit to a cost on seedling survival. In contrast, overstorey tree mortality did not change the relative strength of EM fungal networks, root presence and the bulk soil on survival and biomass of white spruce seedlings. Furthermore, the relative influence of EM fungal networks, root presence, and bulk soils on foliar N and P concentrations was highly contingent on seedling species and overstorey tree mortality. Our results highlight that following large-scale insect outbreak, soil-mediated processes can enable differential population growth of two common conifer species, which may result in species replacement in the future.

Black swans in space: modeling spatiotemporal processes with extremes.

In ecological systems, extremes can happen in time, such as population crashes, or in space, such as rapid range contractions. However, current methods for joint inference about temporal and spatial dynamics (e.g., spatiotemporal modeling with Gaussian random fields) may perform poorly when underlying processes include extreme events. Here we introduce a model that allows for extremes to occur simultaneously in time and space. Our model is a Bayesian predictive-process GLMM (generalized linear mixed-effects model) that uses a multivariate-t distribution to describe spatial random effects. The approach is easily implemented with our flexible R package glmmfields. First, using simulated data, we demonstrate the ability to recapture spatiotemporal extremes, and explore the consequences of fitting models that ignore such extremes. Second, we predict tree mortality from mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in the U.S. Pacific Northwest over the last 16 yr. We show that our approach provides more accurate and precise predictions compared to traditional spatiotemporal models when extremes are present. Our R package makes these models accessible to a wide range of ecologists and scientists in other disciplines interested in fitting spatiotemporal GLMMs, with and without extremes.

Cytochromes P450 Preferentially Expressed in Antennae of the Mountain Pine Beetle.

The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae) is a forest insect pest endemic to western North America. During dispersal and host colonization, MPB identify suitable host trees by olfaction of monoterpene volatiles, contend with host terpene defenses, and communicate with conspecifics using terpenoid and other pheromones. Cytochromes P450 (P450s) have been proposed to function in MPB olfaction, terpene detoxification, and pheromone biosynthesis. Here, we identified P450s that were abundant in the antennae transcriptome. Analysis of transcript levels across different life stages and tissues in females and males showed additional expression of most of these P450s in the midgut or fat body. These expression profiles suggest specific or overlapping functions in olfaction, detoxification, and pheromone biosynthesis.

Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada.

Canada's forests are shaped by disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and droughts that often overlap in time and space. The resulting cumulative disturbance risks and potential impacts on forests are generally not well accounted for by models used to predict future impacts of disturbances on forest. This study aims at projecting future cumulative effects of four main natural disturbances, fire, mountain pine beetle, spruce budworm and drought, on timber volumes across Canada's forests using an approach that accounts for potential overlap among disturbances. Available predictive models for the four natural disturbances were used to project timber volumes at risk under aggressive climate forcing up to 2100. Projections applied to the current vegetation suggest increases of volumes at risk related to fire, mountain pine beetle, and drought over time in many regions of Canada, but a decrease of the volume at risk related to spruce budworm. When disturbance effects are accumulated, important changes in volumes at risk are projected to occur as early as 2011-2041, particularly in central and eastern Canada. In our last simulation period covering 2071-2100, nearly all timber volumes in most of Canada's forest regions could be at risk of being affected by at least one of the four natural disturbances considered in our analysis, a six-fold increase relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Tree species particularly vulnerable to specific disturbances (e.g., trembling aspen to drought) could suffer disproportionate increases in their volume at risk with potential impacts on forest composition. By 2100, estimated wood volumes not considered to be at risk could be lower than current annual timber harvests in central and eastern Canada. Current level of harvesting could thus be difficult to maintain without the implementation of adaptation measures to cope with these disturbances.

Defense traits in the long-lived Great Basin bristlecone pine and resistance to the native herbivore mountain pine beetle.

Mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae) is a significant mortality agent of Pinus, and climate-driven range expansion is occurring. Pinus defenses in recently invaded areas, including high elevations, are predicted to be lower than in areas with longer term MPB presence. MPB was recently observed in high-elevation forests of the Great Basin (GB) region, North America. Defense and susceptibility in two long-lived species, GB bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) and foxtail pine (P. balfouriana), are unclear, although they are sympatric with a common MPB host, limber pine (P. flexilis). We surveyed stands with sympatric GB bristlecone-limber pine and foxtail-limber pine to determine relative MPB attack susceptibility and constitutive defenses. MPB-caused mortality was extensive in limber, low in foxtail and absent in GB bristlecone pine. Defense traits, including constitutive monoterpenes, resin ducts and wood density, were higher in GB bristlecone and foxtail than in limber pine. GB bristlecone and foxtail pines have relatively high levels of constitutive defenses which make them less vulnerable to climate-driven MPB range expansion relative to other high-elevation pines. Long-term selective herbivore pressure and exaptation of traits for tree longevity are potential explanations, highlighting the complexity of predicting plant-insect interactions under climate change.

Novel forest decline triggered by multiple interactions among climate, an introduced pathogen and bark beetles.

Novel forest decline is increasing due to global environmental change, yet the causal factors and their interactions remain poorly understood. Using tree ring analyses, we show how climate and multiple biotic factors caused the decline of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in 16 stands in the southern Canadian Rockies. In our study area, 72% of whitebark pines were dead and 18% had partially dead crowns. Tree mortality peaked in the 1970s; however, the annual basal area increment of disturbed trees began to decline significantly in the late 1940s. Growth decline persisted up to 30 years before trees died from mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), Ips spp. bark beetles or non-native blister rust pathogen (Cronartium ribicola). Climate-growth relations varied over time and differed among the healthy and disturbed subpopulations of whitebark pine. Prior to the 1940s, cool temperatures limited the growth of all subpopulations. Growth of live, healthy trees became limited by drought during the cool phase (1947 -1976) of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and then reverted to positive correlations with temperature during the subsequent warm PDO phase. In the 1940s, the climate-growth relations of the disturbed subpopulations diverged from the live, healthy trees with trees ultimately killed by mountain pine beetle diverging the most. We propose that multiple factors interacted over several decades to cause unprecedented rates of whitebark pine mortality. Climatic variation during the cool PDO phase caused drought stress that may have predisposed trees to blister rust. Subsequent decline in snowpack and warming temperatures likely incited further climatic stress and with blister rust reduced tree resistance to bark beetles. Ultimately, bark beetles and blister rust contributed to tree death. Our findings suggest the complexity of whitebark pine decline and the importance of considering multiway drought-disease-insect interactions over various timescales when interpreting forest decline.

Nonstructural carbohydrate dynamics of lodgepole pine dying from mountain pine beetle attack.

Bark beetle outbreaks are an important cause of tree death, but the process by which trees die remains poorly understood. The effect of beetle attack on whole-tree nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) dynamics is particularly unclear, despite the potential role of carbohydrates in plant defense and survival. We monitored NSC dynamics of all organs in attacked and protected lodgepole pines (Pinus contorta) during a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak in British Columbia, starting before beetle flight in June 2011 through October 2012, when most attacked trees had died. Following attack, NSC concentrations were first reduced in the attacked region of the bole. The first NSC reduction in a distant organ appeared in the needles at the end of 2011, while branch and root NSC did not decline until much later in 2012. Attacked trees that were still alive in October 2012 had less beetle damage, which was negatively correlated with initial bark sugar concentrations in the attack region. The NSC dynamics of dying trees indicate that trees were killed by a loss of water conduction and not girdling. Further, our results identify locally reduced carbohydrate availability as an important mechanism by which stressors like drought may increase tree susceptibility to biotic attack.

Aggregation and a strong Allee effect in a cooperative outbreak insect.

Most species that are negatively impacted when their densities are low aggregate to minimize this effect. Aggregation has the potential to change how Allee effects are expressed at the population level. We studied the interplay between aggregation and Allee effects in the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins), an irruptive bark beetle that aggregates to overcome tree defenses. By cooperating to surpass a critical number of attacks per tree, the mountain pine beetle is able to breach host defenses, oviposit, and reproduce. Mountain pine beetles and Hymenopteran parasitoids share some biological features, the most notable of which is obligatory host death as a consequence of parasitoid attack and development. We developed spatiotemporal models of mountain pine beetle dynamics that were based on the Nicholson-Bailey framework but which featured beetle aggregation and a tree-level attack threshold. By fitting our models to data from a local mountain pine beetle outbreak, we demonstrate that due to aggregation, attack thresholds at the tree level can be overcome by a surprisingly low ratio of beetles per susceptible tree at the stand level. This results confirms the importance of considering aggregation in models of organisms that are subject to strong Allee effects.

Ectomycorrhizal fungi mediate indirect effects of a bark beetle outbreak on secondary chemistry and establishment of pine seedlings.

Dendroctonus ponderosae has killed millions of Pinus contorta in western North America with subsequent effects on stand conditions, including changes in light intensity, needle deposition, and the composition of fungal community mutualists, namely ectomycorrhizal fungi. It is unknown whether these changes in stand conditions will have cascading consequences for the next generation of pine seedlings. To test for transgenerational cascades on pine seedlings, we tested the effects of fungal inoculum origin (beetle-killed or undisturbed stands), light intensity and litter (origin and presence) on seedling secondary chemistry and growth in a glasshouse. We also tracked survival of seedlings over two growing seasons in the same stands from which fungi and litter were collected. Fungal communities differed by inoculum origin. Seedlings grown with fungi collected from beetle-killed stands had lower monoterpene concentrations and fewer monoterpene compounds present compared with seedlings grown with fungi collected from undisturbed stands. Litter affected neither monoterpenes nor seedling growth. Seedling survival in the field was lower in beetle-killed than in undisturbed stands. We demonstrate that stand mortality caused by prior beetle attacks of mature pines have cascading effects on seedling secondary chemistry, growth and survival, probably mediated through effects on below-ground mutualisms.

A Novel Semiochemical Tool for Protecting Pinus contorta From Mortality Attributed to Dendroctonus ponderosae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae).

Verbenone (4,6,6-trimethylbicyclo[3.1.1]hept-3-en-2-one) is an antiaggregant of the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), a notable forest insect capable of causing extensive levels of tree mortality in western North America. Several formulations of verbenone are registered for tree protection, but failures in efficacy are not uncommon, particularly when applied during large infestations. A formulation of (-)-verbenone was developed (Specialized Pheromone & Lure Application Technology [SPLAT] Verb, ISCA Technologies Inc., Riverside, CA) and evaluated for protecting individual lodgepole pine, Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon, and small stands of P. contorta from mortality attributed to D. ponderosae. SPLAT Verb applied to individual P. contorta resulted in complete tree protection, while 93.3% mortality occurred in the untreated controls. Significantly fewer P. contorta were killed by D. ponderosae within 0.041-ha circular plots surrounding P. contorta treated with SPLAT Verb compared with the untreated control. In a second study, a smaller percentage of P. contorta were colonized and killed on 0.4-ha square plots treated with SPLAT Verb compared with the untreated control. No significant differences in levels of tree mortality were observed between the untreated control and another formulation of verbenone (7-g pouch) or between the 7-g pouch and SPLAT Verb. In a trapping bioassay, no significant differences were observed among captures in multiple-funnel traps at 1, 2, or 4 m from the point of release of SPLAT Verb. Significantly fewer D. ponderosae were collected at 1 and 2 m compared with 8 m. Significantly more D. ponderosae were captured at the farthest distance evaluated (16 m) than at any other distance. Our data indicate that SPLAT Verb is effective for protecting individual P. contorta and small stands of P. contorta from mortality attributed to D. ponderosae at moderate doses. The high levels of tree protection observed are attributed to the ability of applying release points (dollops) at high densities, and a larger zone of inhibition than reported for other formulations of verbenone. SPLAT Verb was registered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for use on pines, Pinus spp., in 2013.

Developmental mortality increases sex-ratio bias of a size-dimorphic bark beetle.

1. Given sexual size dimorphism, differential mortality owing to body size can lead to sex-biased mortality, proximately biasing sex ratios. This mechanism may apply to mountain pine beetles, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, which typically have female-biased adult populations (2 : 1) with females larger than males. Smaller males could be more susceptible to stresses than larger females as developing beetles overwinter and populations experience high mortality. 2. Survival of naturally-established mountain pine beetles during the juvenile stage and the resulting adult sex ratios and body sizes (volume) were studied. Three treatments were applied to vary survival in logs cut from trees containing broods of mountain pine beetles. Logs were removed from the forest either in early winter, or in spring after overwintering below snow or after overwintering above snow. Upon removal, logs were placed at room temperature to allow beetles to complete development under similar conditions. 3. Compared with beetles from logs removed in early winter, mortality was higher and the sex ratio was more female-biased in overwintering logs. The bias increased with overwinter mortality. However, sex ratios were female-biased even in early winter, so additional mechanisms, other than overwintering mortality, contributed to the sex-ratio bias. Body volume varied little relative to sex-biased mortality, suggesting other size-independent causes of male-biased mortality. 4. Overwintering mortality is considered a major determinant of mountain pine beetle population dynamics. The disproportionate survival of females, who initiate colonisation of live pine trees, may affect population dynamics in ways that have not been previously considered.