PEcnv: accurate and efficient detection of copy number variations of various lengths.

Copy number variation (CNV) is a class of key biomarkers in many complex traits and diseases. Detecting CNV from sequencing data is a substantial bioinformatics problem and a standard requirement in clinical practice. Although many proposed CNV detection approaches exist, the core statistical model at their foundation is weakened by two critical computational issues: (i) identifying the optimal setting on the sliding window and (ii) correcting for bias and noise. We designed a statistical process model to overcome these limitations by calculating regional read depths via an exponentially weighted moving average strategy. A one-run detection of CNVs of various lengths is then achieved by a dynamic sliding window, whose size is self-adopted according to the weighted averages. We also designed a novel bias/noise reduction model, accompanied by the moving average, which can handle complicated patterns and extend training data. This model, called PEcnv, accurately detects CNVs ranging from kb-scale to chromosome-arm level. The model performance was validated with simulation samples and real samples. Comparative analysis showed that PEcnv outperforms current popular approaches. Notably, PEcnv provided considerable advantages in detecting small CNVs (1 kb-1 Mb) in panel sequencing data. Thus, PEcnv fills the gap left by existing methods focusing on large CNVs. PEcnv may have broad applications in clinical testing where panel sequencing is the dominant strategy. Availability and implementation: Source code is freely available at https://github.com/Sherwin-xjtu/PEcnv.

P-wave alternans rebound following pulmonary vein isolation predicts atrial arrhythmia recurrence.

INTRODUCTION: Numerous P-wave indices have been explored as biomarkers to assess atrial fibrillation (AF) risk and the impact of therapy with variable success. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the utility of P-wave alternans (PWA) to track the effects of pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) and to predict atrial arrhythmia recurrence. METHODS: This medical records study included patients who underwent PVI for AF ablation at our institution, along with 20 control subjects without AF or overt cardiovascular disease. PWA was assessed using novel artificial intelligence-enabled modified moving average (AI-MMA) algorithms. PWA was monitored from the 12-lead ECG at ~1 h before and ~16 h after PVI (n = 45) and at the 4- to 17-week clinically indicated follow-up visit (n = 30). The arrhythmia follow-up period was 955 ± 112 days. RESULTS: PVI acutely reduced PWA by 48%-63% (p < .05) to control ranges in leads II, III, aVF, the leads with the greatest sensitivity in monitoring PWA. Pre-ablation PWA was ~6 µV and decreased to ~3 µV following ablation. Patients who exhibited a rebound in PWA to pre-ablation levels at 4- to 17-week follow-up (p < .01) experienced recurrent atrial arrhythmias, whereas patients whose PWA remained reduced (p = .85) did not, resulting in a significant difference (p < .001) at follow-up. The AUC for PWA's prediction of first recurrence of atrial arrhythmia was 0.81 (p < .01) with 88% sensitivity and 82% specificity. Kaplan-Meier analysis estimated atrial arrhythmia-free survival (p < .01) with an adjusted hazard ratio of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.47-5.24, p < .02). CONCLUSION: A rebound in PWA to pre-ablation levels detected by AI-MMA in the 12-lead ECG at standard clinical follow-up predicts atrial arrhythmia recurrence.

Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and interventions on hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhengzhou, China, 2014-2022: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, COVID-19 has spread rapidly around the world, and studies have shown that measures to prevent COVID-19 can largely reduce the spread of other infectious diseases. This study explored the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and interventions on the incidence of HFMD. METHODS: We gathered data on the prevalence of HFMD from the Children's Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was constructed using HFMD incidence data from 2014 to 2019, the number of cases predicted from 2020 to 2022 was predicted, and the predicted values were compared with the actual measurements. RESULTS: From January 2014 to October 2022, the Children's Hospital of Zhengzhou University admitted 103,995 children with HFMD. The average number of cases of HFMD from 2020 to 2022 was 4,946, a significant decrease from 14,859 cases from 2014 to 2019. We confirmed the best ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,1,0)12 model. From 2020 to 2022, the yearly number of cases decreased by 46.58%, 75.54%, and 66.16%, respectively, compared with the forecasted incidence. Trends in incidence across sexes and ages displayed patterns similar to those overall. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 outbreak and interventions reduced the incidence of HFMD compared to that before the outbreak. Strengthening public health interventions remains a priority in the prevention of HFMD.

Seasonality of influenza-like illness and short-term forecasting model in Chongqing from 2010 to 2022.

BACKGROUND: Influenza-like illness (ILI) imposes a significant burden on patients, employers and society. However, there is no analysis and prediction at the hospital level in Chongqing. We aimed to characterize the seasonality of ILI, examine age heterogeneity in visits, and predict ILI peaks and assess whether they affect hospital operations. METHODS: The multiplicative decomposition model was employed to decompose the trend and seasonality of ILI, and the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous factors (SARIMAX) model was used for the trend and short-term prediction of ILI. We used Grid Search and Akaike information criterion (AIC) to calibrate and verify the optimal hyperparameters, and verified the residuals of the multiplicative decomposition and SARIMAX model, which are both white noise. RESULTS: During the 12-year study period, ILI showed a continuous upward trend, peaking in winter (Dec. - Jan.) and a small spike in May-June in the 2-4-year-old high-risk group for severe disease. The mean length of stay (LOS) in ILI peaked around summer (about Aug.), and the LOS in the 0-1 and ≥ 65 years old severely high-risk group was more irregular than the others. We found some anomalies in the predictive analysis of the test set, which were basically consistent with the dynamic zero-COVID policy at the time. CONCLUSION: The ILI patient visits showed a clear cyclical and seasonal pattern. ILI prevention and control activities can be conducted seasonally on an annual basis, and age heterogeneity should be considered in the health resource planning. Targeted immunization policies are essential to mitigate potential pandemic threats. The SARIMAX model has good short-term forecasting ability and accuracy. It can help explore the epidemiological characteristics of ILI and provide an early warning and decision-making basis for the allocation of medical resources related to ILI visits.

The effect of ratios upon improving patient-based real-time quality control (PBRTQC) performance.

OBJECTIVES: Large biological variation hinders application of patient-based real-time quality control (PBRTQC). The effect of analyte ratios on the ability of PBRTQC to improve error detection was investigated. METHODS: Four single analyte-ratio pairs (alanine aminotransferase [ALT] vs. ALT to aspartate aminotransferase ratio [RALT]; creatinine [Cr] vs. Cr to cystatin C ratio [RCr]; lactate dehydrogenase [LDH] vs. LDH to hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase ratio [RLDH]; total bilirubin [TB] vs. TB to direct bilirubin ratio [RTB]) were chosen for comparison. Various procedures, including four conventional algorithms (moving average [MA], moving median [MM], exponentially weighted moving average [EWMA] and moving standard deviation [MSD]) were assessed. A new algorithm that monitors the number of defect reports per analytical run (NDR) was also evaluated. RESULTS: When a single analyte and calculated ratio used the same PBRTQC parameters, fewer samples were needed to detect systematic errors (SE) by taking ratios (p<0.05). Application of ratios in MA, MM and EWMA significantly enhanced their ability to detect SE. The influence of ratio on random error (RE) detection depended upon the analytes and PBRTQC parameters, as consistent advantage was not demonstrated. The NDR method performed well when appropriate parameters were used, but was only effective for unilateral SE. Rearrangement of sample order led to a significant deterioration of conventional algorithms' performance, while NDR remained almost unaffected. CONCLUSIONS: For analytes with large variation and poor PBRTQC performance, using ratios as PBRTQC indexes may significantly improve performance and achieve better anti-interference ability, providing a new class of monitoring indicators for PBRTQC.

Forecasting the future prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in Korea through 2048: an epidemiologic study employing autoregressive integrated moving average models.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The global inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) escalation has precipitated an increased disease burden and economic impact, particularly in Asia. This study primarily aimed to predict the future prevalence of IBD in Korea and elucidate its evolution pattern. METHODS: Using a validated diagnostic algorithm, we analyzed data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service between 2004 and 2017 to identify patients with IBD. We predicted the number and prevalence of patients with IBD from 2018 to 2048 with the autoregressive integrated moving average method. A generalized linear model (GLM) was also employed to identify factors contributing to the observed trend in IBD prevalence. RESULTS: Our prediction model validation demonstrated an acceptable error range for IBD prevalence, with a 2.45% error rate and a mean absolute difference of 2.61. We foresee a sustained average annual increase of 4.51 IBD cases per 100 000, culminating in a prevalence of 239.73 per 100 000 by 2048. The forecasted average annual percent change was 6.17% for males and 2.75% for females over the next 30 years. The GLM analysis revealed that age, gender and time significantly impact the prevalence of IBD, with notable disparities observed between genders in specific age groups for both Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis (all interaction P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our study forecasts a notable increase in Korean IBD prevalence by 2048, particularly among males and the 20-39 age group, highlighting the need to focus on these high-risk groups to mitigate the future disease burden.

Seasonality of common respiratory viruses: Analysis of nationwide time-series data.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Understanding the seasonal behaviours of respiratory viruses is crucial for preventing infections. We evaluated the seasonality of respiratory viruses using time-series analyses. METHODS: This study analysed prospectively collected nationwide surveillance data on eight respiratory viruses, gathered from the Korean Influenza and Respiratory Surveillance System. The data were collected on a weekly basis by 52 nationwide primary healthcare institutions between 2015 and 2019. We performed Spearman correlation analyses, similarity analyses via dynamic time warping (DTW) and seasonality analyses using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). RESULTS: The prevalence of rhinovirus (RV, 23.6%-31.4%), adenovirus (AdV, 9.2%-16.6%), human coronavirus (HCoV, 3.0%-6.6%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV, 11.7%-20.1%), influenza virus (IFV, 11.7%-21.5%), parainfluenza virus (PIV, 9.2%-12.6%), human metapneumovirus (HMPV, 5.6%-6.9%) and human bocavirus (HBoV, 5.0%-6.4%) were derived. Most of them exhibited a high positive correlation in Spearman analyses. In DTW analyses, all virus data from 2015 to 2019, except AdV, exhibited good alignments. In SARIMA, AdV and RV did not show seasonality. Other viruses showed 12-month seasonality. We describe the viruses as winter viruses (HCoV, RSV and IFV), spring/summer viruses (PIV, HBoV), a spring virus (HMPV) and all-year viruses with peak incidences during school periods (RV and AdV). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to comprehensively analyse the seasonal behaviours of the eight most common respiratory viruses using nationwide, prospectively collected, sentinel surveillance data.

Global, regional and national trends in tuberculosis incidence and main risk factors: a study using data from 2000 to 2021.

BACKGROUND: Despite the significant progress over the years, Tuberculosis remains a major public health concern and a danger to global health. This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the incidence of tuberculosis and its risk factors and to predict future trends in the incidence of Tuberculosis. METHODS: This study used secondary data on tuberculosis incidence and tuberculosis risk factor data from 209 countries and regions worldwide between 2000 and 2021 for analysis. Specifically, this study analyses the spatial autocorrelation of Tuberculosis incidence from 2000 to 2021 by calculating Moran's I and identified risk factors for Tuberculosis incidence by multiple stepwise linear regression analysis. We also used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model to predict the trend of Tuberculosis incidence to 2030. This study used ArcGIS Pro, Geoda and R studio 4.2.2 for analysis. RESULTS: The study found the global incidence of Tuberculosis and its spatial autocorrelation trends from 2000 to 2021 showed a general downward trend, but its spatial autocorrelation trends remained significant (Moran's I = 0.465, P < 0.001). The risk factors for Tuberculosis incidence are also geographically specific. Low literacy rate was identified as the most pervasive and profound risk factor for Tuberculosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the global spatial and temporal status of Tuberculosis incidence and risk factors. Although the incidence of Tuberculosis and Moran's Index of Tuberculosis are both declining, there are still differences in Tuberculosis risk factors across countries and regions. Even though literacy rate is the leading risk factor affecting the largest number of countries and regions, there are still many countries and regions where gender (male) is the leading risk factor. In addition, at the current rate of decline in Tuberculosis incidence, the World Health Organization's goal of ending the Tuberculosis pandemic by 2030 will be difficult to achieve. Targeted preventive interventions, such as health education and regular screening of Tuberculosis-prone populations are needed if we are to achieve the goal. The results of this study will help policymakers to identify high-risk groups based on differences in TB risk factors in different areas, rationalize the allocation of healthcare resources, and provide timely health education, so as to formulate more effective Tuberculosis prevention and control policies.

A Mixed-Effects Model in Which the Parameters of the Autocorrelated Error Structure Can Differ between Individuals.

Research in psychology has seen a rapid increase in the usage of experience sampling methods and daily diary methods. The data that result from using these methods are typically analyzed with a mixed-effects or a multilevel model because it allows testing hypotheses about the time course of the longitudinally assessed variable or the influence of time-varying predictors in a simple way. Here, we describe an extension of this model that does not only allow to include random effects for the mean structure but also for the residual variance, for the parameter of an autoregressive process of order 1 and/or the parameter of a moving average process of order 1. After we have introduced this extension, we show how to estimate the parameters with maximum likelihood. Because the likelihood function contains complex integrals, we suggest using adaptive Gauss-Hermite quadrature and Quasi-Monte Carlo integration to approximate it. We illustrate the models using a real data example and also report the results of a small simulation study in which the two integral approximation methods are compared.

Electrodermal Activity (EDA) Morphologies and Prediction of Engagement with Simple Moving Average Crossover: A Mixed-Method Study.

Electrodermal Activity (EDA), which primarily indicates arousal through sympathetic nervous system activity, serves as a tool to measure constructs like engagement, cognitive load, performance, and stress. Despite its potential, empirical studies have often yielded mixed results and found it of limited use. To better understand EDA, we conducted a mixed-methods study in which quantitative EDA profiles and survey data were investigated using qualitative interviews. This study furnishes an EDA dataset measuring the engagement levels of seven participants who watched three videos for 4-10 min. The subsequent interviews revealed five EDA morphologies with varying short-term signatures and long-term trends. We used this dataset to demonstrate the moving average crossover, a novel metric for EDA analysis, in predicting engagement-disengagement dynamics in such data. Our contributions include the creation of the detailed dataset, comprising EDA profiles annotated with qualitative data, the identification of five distinct EDA morphologies, and the proposition of the moving average crossover as an indicator of the beginning of engagement or disengagement in an individual.

Comparative Analysis of Integrated Filtering Methods Using UWB Localization in Indoor Environment.

This research delves into advancing an ultra-wideband (UWB) localization system through the integration of filtering technologies (moving average (MVG), Kalman filter (KF), extended Kalman filter (EKF)) with a low-pass filter (LPF). We investigated new approaches to enhance the precision and reduce noise of the current filtering methods-MVG, KF, and EKF. Using a TurtleBot robotic platform with a camera, our research thoroughly examines the UWB system in various trajectory situations (square, circular, and free paths with 2 m, 2.2 m, and 5 m distances). Particularly in the square path trajectory with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) values (40.22 mm on the X axis, and 78.71 mm on the Y axis), the extended Kalman filter with low-pass filter (EKF + LPF) shows notable accuracy. This filter stands out among the others. Furthermore, we find that integrated method using LPF outperforms MVG, KF, and EKF consistently, reducing the mean absolute error (MAE) to 3.39% for square paths, 4.21% for circular paths, and 6.16% for free paths. This study highlights the effectiveness of EKF + LPF for accurate indoor localization for UWB systems.

Temporal assessment of Gross alpha emissions from the petroleum industry in Tenerife, Canary Islands (2001-2022).

A ca. 76% decrease in gross alpha activity levels, measured in surface aerosols collected in the city of Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Spain), has been explained in the present study in connection with the reduction of activities, and eventual closure, of an oil refinery in the city. Gross Alpha in surface aerosols, collected at weekly intervals over a period of 22 years (2001-2022), was used for the analysis. The dynamic behaviour of the gross alpha time series was studied using statistical wavelet, multifractal analysis, empirical decomposition method, multivariate analysis, principal component, and cluster analyses approaches. This was performed to separate the impact of other sources of alpha emitting radionuclides influencing the gross alpha levels at this site. These in-depth analyses revealed a noteworthy shift in the dynamic behaviour of the gross alpha levels following the refinery's closure in 2013. This analysis also attributed fluctuations and trends in the gross alpha levels to factors such as the 2008 global economic crisis and the refinery's gradual reduction of activity leading up to its closure. The mixed-model approach, incorporating multivariate regression and autoregressive integrated moving average methods, explained approximately 84% of the variance of the gross alpha levels. Finally, this work underscored the marked reduction in alpha activity levels following the refinery's closure, alongside the decline of other pollutants (CO, SO2, NO, NO2, Benzene, Toluene and Xylene) linked to the primary industrial activity in the municipality of Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

Interrupted time series analysis using the ARIMA model of the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rate of notifiable communicable diseases in China.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in China is ongoing. Some studies have shown that the incidence of respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases in 2020 decreased significantly compared with previous years. Interrupted time series (ITS) is a time series analysis method that evaluates the impact of intervention measures on outcomes and can control the original regression trend of outcomes before and after the intervention. This study aimed to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence rate of notifiable communicable diseases using ITS in China. METHODS: National data on the incidence rate of communicable diseases in 2009-2021 were obtained from the National Health Commission website. Interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models was used to analyse the changes in the incidence rate of infectious diseases before and after the COVID-19 epidemic. RESULTS: There was a significant short-term decline in the incidence rates of respiratory infectious diseases and enteric infectious diseases (step values of -29.828 and - 8.237, respectively), which remained at a low level for a long time after the decline. There was a short-term decline in the incidence rates of blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases (step = -3.638), which tended to recover to previous levels in the long term (ramp = 0.172). There was no significant change in the incidence rate of natural focus diseases or arboviral diseases before and after the epidemic. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 epidemic had strong short-term and long-term effects on respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases and short-term control effects on blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases. Our methods for the prevention and control of COVID-19 can be used for the prevention and control of other notifiable communicable diseases, especially respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases.

Impact of COVID-19 on epidemic trend of hepatitis C in Henan Province assessed by interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatitis C presents a profound global health challenge. The impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis C, however, remain uncertain. This study aimed to ascertain the influence of COVID-19 on the hepatitis C epidemic trend in Henan Province. METHODS: We collated the number of monthly diagnosed cases in Henan Province from January 2013 to September 2022. Upon detailing the overarching epidemiological characteristics, the interrupted time series (ITS) analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models was employed to estimate the hepatitis C diagnosis rate pre and post the COVID-19 emergence. In addition, we also discussed the model selection process, test model fitting, and result interpretation. RESULTS: Between January 2013 and September 2022, a total of 267,968 hepatitis C cases were diagnosed. The yearly average diagnosis rate stood at 2.42/100,000 persons. While 2013 witnessed the peak diagnosis rate at 2.97/100,000 persons, 2020 reported the least at 1.7/100,000 persons. The monthly mean hepatitis C diagnosed numbers culminated in 2291 cases. The optimal ARIMA model chosen was ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 with AIC = 1459.58, AICc = 1460.19, and BIC = 1472.8; having coefficients MA1=-0.62 (t=-8.06, P < 0.001) and SMA1=-0.79 (t=-6.76, P < 0.001). The final model's projected step change was - 800.0 (95% confidence interval [CI] -1179.9 ~ -420.1, P < 0.05) and pulse change was 463.40 (95% CI 191.7 ~ 735.1, P < 0.05) per month. CONCLUSION: The measures undertaken to curtail COVID-19 led to a diminishing trend in the diagnosis rate of hepatitis C. The ARIMA model is a useful tool for evaluating the impact of large-scale interventions, because it can explain potential trends, autocorrelation, and seasonality, and allow for flexible modeling of different types of impacts.

Application of SARIMA model in forecasting and analyzing inpatient cases of acute mountain sickness.

BACKGROUND: Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS) is typically triggered by hypoxia under high altitude conditions. Currently, rule of time among AMS inpatients was not clear. Thus, this study aimed to analyze the time distribution of AMS inpatients in the past ten years and construct a prediction model of AMS hospitalized cases. METHODS: We retrospectively collected medical records of AMS inpatients admitted to the military hospitals from January 2009 to December 2018 and analyzed the time series characteristics. Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) was established through training data to finally forecast in the test data set. RESULTS: A total of 22 663 inpatients were included in this study and recorded monthly, with predominant peak annually, early spring (March) and mid-to-late summer (July to August), respectively. Using the training data from January 2009 to December 2017, the model SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1) 12 was employed to predict the test data from January 2018 to December 2018. In 2018, the total predicted value after adjustment was 9.24%, less than the actual value. CONCLUSION: AMS inpatients have obvious periodicity and seasonality. The SARIMA model has good fitting ability and high short-term prediction accuracy. It can help explore the characteristics of AMS disease and provide decision-making basis for allocation of relevant medical resources for AMS inpatients.

Interruption time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average model: evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemic trend of gonorrhea in China.

BACKGROUND: Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis is a growing method for assessing intervention impacts on diseases. However, it remains unstudied how the COVID-19 outbreak impacts gonorrhea. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 on gonorrhea and predict gonorrhea epidemics using the ITS-autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. METHODS: The number of gonorrhea cases reported in China from January 2005 to September 2022 was collected. Statistical descriptions were applied to indicate the overall epidemiological characteristics of the data, and then the ITS-ARIMA was established. Additionally, we compared the forecasting abilities of ITS-ARIMA with Bayesian structural time series (BSTS), and discussed the model selection process, transfer function, check model fitting, and interpretation of results. RESULT: During 2005-2022, the total cases of gonorrhea were 2,165,048, with an annual average incidence rate of 8.99 per 100,000 people. The highest incidence rate was 14.2 per 100,000 people in 2005 and the lowest was 6.9 per 100,000 people in 2012. The optimal model was ARIMA (0,1, (1,3)) (0,1,1)12 (Akaike's information criterion = 3293.93). When predicting the gonorrhea incidence, the mean absolute percentage error under the ARIMA (16.45%) was smaller than that under the BSTS (22.48%). The study found a 62.4% reduction in gonorrhea during the first-level response, a 46.47% reduction during the second-level response, and an increase of 3.6% during the third-level response. The final model estimated a step change of - 2171 (95% confidence interval [CI] - 3698 to - 644) cases and an impulse change of - 1359 (95% CI - 2381 to - 338) cases. Using the ITS-ARIMA to evaluate the effect of COVID-19 on gonorrhea, the gonorrhea incidence showed a temporary decline before rebounding to pre-COVID-19 levels in China. CONCLUSION: ITS analysis is a valuable tool for gauging intervention effectiveness, providing flexibility in modelling various impacts. The ITS-ARIMA model can adeptly explain potential trends, autocorrelation, and seasonality. Gonorrhea, marked by periodicity and seasonality, exhibited a downward trend under the influence of COVID-19 intervention. The ITS-ARIMA outperformed the BSTS, offering superior predictive capabilities for the gonorrhea incidence trend in China.

Effects of air pollution control policies on intracerebral hemorrhage mortality among residents in Tianjin, China.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to air pollution is an important risk factor for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), which is a major cause of death worldwide. However, the relationship between ICH mortality and air quality improvement has been poorly studied. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the air pollution control policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on ICH mortality among Tianjin residents. METHODS: This study used an interrupted time series analysis. We fitted autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to assess the changes in ICH deaths before and after the interventions of air pollution control policies based on the data of ICH deaths in Tianjin collected by the Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention. RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2020, there were 63,944 ICH deaths in Tianjin, and there was an overall decreasing trend in ICH mortality. The intervention conducted in June 2014 resulted in a statistically significant (p = 0.03) long-term trend change, reducing the number of deaths from ICH by 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.30 to -0.07) per month. The intervention in October 2017 resulted in a statistically significant (p = 0.04) immediate decrease of 25.74 (95% CI: -50.62 to -0.85) deaths from ICH in that month. The intervention in December 2017 caused a statistically significant (p = 0.04) immediate reduction of 26.58 (95% CI: -52.02 to -1.14) deaths from ICH in that month. The intervention in March 2018 resulted in a statistically significant (p = 0.02) immediate decrease of 30.40 (95% CI: -56.41 to -4.40) deaths from ICH in that month. No significant differences were observed in the changes of male ICH mortality after any of the four interventions. However, female ICH deaths showed statistically significant long-term trend change after the intervention in June 2014 and immediate changes after the interventions in December 2017 and March 2018. Overall, the interventions prevented an estimated 5984.76 deaths due to ICH. CONCLUSION: During the study period, some interventions of air pollution control policies were significantly associated with the reductions in the number of deaths from ICH among residents in Tianjin. ICH survivors and females were more sensitive to the protective effects of the interventions. Interventions for air pollution control can achieve public health gains in cities with high levels of air pollution.

Research process, recap, and prediction of Chiari malformation based on bicentennial history of nomenclature and terms misuse.

There is an absent systematic analysis or review that has been conducted to clarify the topic of nomenclature history and terms misuse about Chiari malformations (CMs). We reviewed all reports on terms coined for CMs for rational use and provided their etymology and future development. All literature on the nomenclature of CMs was retrieved and extracted into core terms. Subsequently, keyword analysis, preceding and predicting (2023-2025) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of each core term, was calculated using a mathematical formula and autoregressive integrated moving average model in Python. Totally 64,527 CM term usage was identified. Of these, 57 original terms were collected and then extracted into 24 core-terms. Seventeen terms have their own featured author keywords, while seven terms are homologous. The preceding CAGR of 24 terms showed significant growth in use for 18 terms, while 13, three, three, and five terms may show sustained growth, remain stable, decline, and rare in usage, respectively, in the future. Previously, owing to intricate nomenclature, Chiari terms were frequently misused, and numerous seemingly novel but worthless even improper terms have emerged. For a very basic neuropathological phenomenon tonsillar herniation by multiple etiology, a mechanism-based nosology seems to be more conducive to future communication than an umbrella eponym. However, a good nomenclature also should encapsulate all characteristics of this condition, but this is lacking in current CM research, as the pathophysiological mechanisms are not elucidated for the majority of CMs.

Early Warning and Prediction of Scarlet Fever in China Using the Baidu Search Index and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average With Explanatory Variable (ARIMAX) Model: Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Internet-derived data and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with explanatory variable (ARIMAX) models are extensively used for infectious disease surveillance. However, the effectiveness of the Baidu search index (BSI) in predicting the incidence of scarlet fever remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to investigate whether a low-cost BSI monitoring system could potentially function as a valuable complement to traditional scarlet fever surveillance in China. METHODS: ARIMA and ARIMAX models were developed to predict the incidence of scarlet fever in China using data from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China between January 2011 and August 2022. The procedures included establishing a keyword database, keyword selection and filtering through Spearman rank correlation and cross-correlation analyses, construction of the scarlet fever comprehensive search index (CSI), modeling with the training sets, predicting with the testing sets, and comparing the prediction performances. RESULTS: The average monthly incidence of scarlet fever was 4462.17 (SD 3011.75) cases, and annual incidence exhibited an upward trend until 2019. The keyword database contained 52 keywords, but only 6 highly relevant ones were selected for modeling. A high Spearman rank correlation was observed between the scarlet fever reported cases and the scarlet fever CSI (rs=0.881). We developed the ARIMA(4,0,0)(0,1,2)(12) model, and the ARIMA(4,0,0)(0,1,2)(12) + CSI (Lag=0) and ARIMAX(1,0,2)(2,0,0)(12) models were combined with the BSI. The 3 models had a good fit and passed the residuals Ljung-Box test. The ARIMA(4,0,0)(0,1,2)(12), ARIMA(4,0,0)(0,1,2)(12) + CSI (Lag=0), and ARIMAX(1,0,2)(2,0,0)(12) models demonstrated favorable predictive capabilities, with mean absolute errors of 1692.16 (95% CI 584.88-2799.44), 1067.89 (95% CI 402.02-1733.76), and 639.75 (95% CI 188.12-1091.38), respectively; root mean squared errors of 2036.92 (95% CI 929.64-3144.20), 1224.92 (95% CI 559.04-1890.79), and 830.80 (95% CI 379.17-1282.43), respectively; and mean absolute percentage errors of 4.33% (95% CI 0.54%-8.13%), 3.36% (95% CI -0.24% to 6.96%), and 2.16% (95% CI -0.69% to 5.00%), respectively. The ARIMAX models outperformed the ARIMA models and had better prediction performances with smaller values. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that the BSI can be used for the early warning and prediction of scarlet fever, serving as a valuable supplement to traditional surveillance systems.

Estimating the tuberculosis incidence using a SARIMAX-NNARX hybrid model by integrating meteorological factors in Qinghai Province, China.

Tuberculosis (TB) is recognized as being a major public health concern owing to its increase in Qinghai, China. In this study, we aimed to estimate the long-term effects of meteorological variables on TB incidence and construct an advanced hybrid model with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and a neural network nonlinear autoregression (SARIMAX-NNARX) by integrating meteorological factors and evaluating the model fitting and prediction effect. During 2005-2017, TB experienced an upward trend with obvious periodic and seasonal characteristics, peaking in spring and winter. The results showed that TB incidence was positively correlated with average relative humidity (ARH) with a 2-month lag (ß = 1.889, p = 0.003), but negatively correlated with average atmospheric pressure (AAP) with a 1-month lag (ß = - 1.633, p = 0.012), average temperature (AT) with a 2-month lag (ß = - 0.093, p = 0.027), and average wind speed (AWS) with a 0-month lag (ß = - 13.221, p = 0.033), respectively. The SARIMA (3,1,0)(1,1,1)12, SARIMAX(3,1,0)(1,1,1)12, and SARIMAX(3,1,0)(1,1,1)12-NNARX(15,3) were considered preferred models based on the evaluation criteria. Of them, the SARIMAX-NNARX technique had smaller error values than the SARIMA and SARIMAX models in both fitting and forecasting aspects. The sensitivity analysis also revealed the robustness of the mixture forecasting model. Therefore, the SARIMAX-NNARX model by integrating meteorological variables can be used as an accurate method for forecasting the epidemic trends which would be great importance for TB prevention and control in the coming periods in Qinghai.