Principles for area-based biodiversity conservation.

Recent international agreements have strengthened and expanded commitments to protect and restore native habitats for biodiversity protection ("area-based biodiversity conservation"). Nevertheless, biodiversity conservation is hindered because how such commitments should be implemented has been strongly debated, which can lead to suboptimal habitat protection decisions. We argue that, despite the debates, there are three essential principles for area-based biodiversity conservation. These principles are related to habitat geographic coverage, amount, and connectivity. They emerge from evidence that, while large areas of nature are important and must be protected, conservation or restoration of multiple small habitat patches is also critical for global conservation, particularly in regions with high land use. We contend that the many area-based conservation initiatives expected in the coming decades should follow the principles we identify, regardless of ongoing debates. Considering the importance of biodiversity for maintenance of ecosystem services, we suggest that this would bring widespread societal benefits.

Assessment of health risk of antibiotics resistance genes from human disturbed habitat to wild animals: Metagenomic insights into availability and functional changes of gut microbiome.

Not all antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) pose an ecological risk to their host animals. A standard should be developed to study which types of ARGs posed an ecological risk to wild animals under human disturbances (HDs). In this study, the golden snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) were used as sentinel species. According to the animals-associated enrichment, mobility, and pathogenicity, the ARGs in habitat of sentinel species were divided into four levels. If the mobile and pathogenic ARGs that could be collinear with the metagenome-assembled genome (MAGs) in the gut of the sentinel species, the ARGs were defined as Rank I ARGs and they were considered to have ecological risk to sentinel species. Functional genes in the MAGs that collinear with the Rank I ARGs were used to predict the health risks of sentinel species. The ecological risk to sentinel species was present in 0.158 % of the ARGs-contigs in the habitat. Cultivation and villages, but not grazing, agriculture and ecotourism, increased the ecological risk of the ARGs to wild animals, The ability of gut microbiome to acquire mobile and pathogenic ARGs increased, as did the collinear functional genes, and the health risks of the wild animals also enhanced by the disturbances of cultivation and villages. Cultivation and villages increased the nutrient content of the soil, and they had a positive effect on the ecological risk of Rank I ARGs by affecting the mobile genetic elements (MGEs), microbiome and the resistant group in the habitat, which was why the cultivation and villages increased the health risks of wild animals. We proposed that cultivation and living should be controlled, while grazing, agriculture and ecotourism could be developed in nature reserves of wild animals, but the nutrients in the wild animals' habitat should be monitored.

Habitat quality outweighs the human footprint in driving spatial patterns of Cetartiodactyla in the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau.

The Human Footprint (HFP) and Habitat Quality (HQ) are critical factors influencing the species' distribution, yet their relation to biodiversity, particularly in mountainous regions, still remains inadequately understood. This study aims to identify the primary factor that affects the biodiversity by comparing the impact of the HFP and HQ on the species' richness of Cetartiodactyla in the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau and four protected areas: The Pamir Plateau Wetland Nature Reserve, Taxkorgan Wildlife Nature Reserve, Middle Kunlun Nature Reserve and Arjinshan Nature Reserve through multi-source satellite remote sensing product data. By integrating satellite data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST)HQ model and utilizing residual and linear regression analysis, we found that: (1) The Wildness Area (WA) predominantly underwent a transition to a Highly Modified Area (HMA) and Intact Area (IA), with a notable 12.02% rise in stable regions, while 58.51% rather experienced a negligible decrease. (2) From 1985 to 2020, the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau has seen increases in the forestland, water, cropland and shrubland, alongside declines in bare land and grassland, denoting considerable land cover changes. (3) The HQ degradation was significant, with 79.81% of the area showing degradation compared to a 10.65% improvement, varying across the nature reserves. (4) The species richness of Cetartiodactyla was better explained by HQ than by HFP on the Kunlun-Pamir Plateau (52.99% vs. 47.01%), as well as in the Arjinshan Nature Reserve (81.57%) and Middle Kunlun Nature Reserve (56.41%). In contrast, HFP was more explanatory in the Pamir Plateau Wetland Nature Reserve (88.89%) and the Taxkorgan Wildlife Nature Reserve (54.55%). Prioritizing the restoration of degraded habitats areas of the Kunlun Pamir Plateau could enhance Cetartiodactyla species richness. These findings provide valuable insights for the biodiversity management and conservation strategies in the mountainous regions.

Investigation of ecological risk of microplastics in peatland areas: A case study in Vietnam.

This study aims to investigate the distribution and ecological risk assessment of microplastics (MPs) in peatland areas located in Long An province, Vietnam's Mekong Delta. In general, polyvinyl chloride (60.7%), polyethylene (25.8%), and polypropylene (11.9%) were the most abundant polymers determined in the thirty sediment samples. The hazard index (HI) remarked a level of III for MPs contamination in Tan Thanh and Thanh Hoa districts. The pollution load index (PLI) and potential ecological risk index (RI) indicated that the contamination risk of MPs polymer types in the studied sites is relatively high. According to PLI values, MPs levels of peatlands in Tan Thanh and Thanh Hoa are high and moderate, respectively, while the peatland sediments in Duc Hue district are less contaminated. Furthermore, ecological risk indexes in the peatland areas were relatively high, with PLIoverall (level III); HIoverall (level V), and RIoverall (extreme danger). Hence, this study proposed a SWOT framework for challenges of MPs pollution in order to manage peatlands appropriately and minimize ecological risks. As a result, several practical strategies and appropriate approaches have been recommended to reduce microplastics towards a circular economy. These findings provide the initial quantitative assessment insights into hazard levels and ecological impacts of MPs in Vietnam's Mekong Delta peatlands.

Identifying key risks to the performance of privately protected areas (PPAs) through theory of change (ToC).

Privately protected areas (PPAs) are internationally considered to be important policy implementation instruments to augment and strengthen protected area networks. However, there has been limited reflection on the performance of PPAs over time. This paper aims to identify key risks to the performance of PPAs as policy implementation instruments through the application of Theory of Change (ToC). Identifying and understanding these risks are important to allow for the evaluation and monitoring of PPA performance. The ToC method was applied to a specific PPA policy instrument namely, private nature reserves (PNRs) in the South African context. The research results produced 29 key assumptions translated into 29 key risks. These risk are critically discussed against existing South African and international literature. To test and refine the risks further it is recommended that they be applied to PPA case studies in different contexts.

Have China's national forest reserves designated since 1990 conserved forests effectively?

China's forests were severely degraded by human activities during the latter half of the 20th century. Therefore, China enacted ambitious programs of natural forest protection and afforestation to protect and expand forests. Yet it is unclear how the programs, especially the designation of forest reserves, have affected forest cover and fragmentation. We evaluated the effectiveness of China's national forest reserves designated since 1990 in conserving forests, by analyzing four forest metrics (i.e., percentage forest cover, mean forest patch size, mean forest patch radius of gyration, and forest patch cohesion index) derived from a newly produced 30 m annual China land cover dataset from 1990 to 2019. We found that overall forest cover increased and fragmentation decreased from baseline years, when reserves were designated, to 2019 in both reserves and their surrounding areas, and only the increase in forest cover relative to baseline was significantly greater in reserves than in surrounding areas. The designation time of reserves under national protection had no considerable effect on changes in the four metrics, but for zonation, the core zone showed a significantly higher increase in forest patch cohesion index relative to baseline than the buffer and transition zones. Nevertheless, forest cover declined and fragmentation increased in highly forested reserves, suggesting destructive human activities and ineffective management. Thus, forest protection and regeneration programs were moderately successful. We recommend that there is significant improvement needed to ensure greater protection of existing forests and reduction of threats to promote effective management.

Protected area, easement, and rental contract data reveal five communities of land protection in the United States.

Land protection efforts represent large societal investments and are critical to biodiversity conservation. Land protection involves a complex mosaic of areas managed by multiple organizations, using a variety of mechanisms to achieve different levels of protection. We develop an approach to synthesize, describe, and map this land protection diversity over large spatial scales. We use cluster analysis to find distinct "communities" of land protection based on the organizations involved, the strictness of land protection, and the protection mechanisms used. We also associate identified land protection communities with socioenvironmental variables. Applying these methods to describe land protection communities in counties across the coterminous United States, we recognize five different land protection communities. Two land protection communities occur in areas with low human population size at higher elevations and include a large amount of protected land primarily under federal management. These two community types are differentiated from one another by the particular federal agencies involved, the relative contributions of smaller actors, and the amount of protection by designations vs. conservation easements or covenants. Three remaining land protection communities have less overall protection. Land in one community is primarily protected by federally managed rental contracts and government managed easements; another is managed by a diversity of non-federal actors through fee-ownership and easements; and the third stands out for having the lowest amount of formally recorded protection overall. High elevation and poor quality soils are over-represented in U.S. protected lands. Rental contracts help fill in gaps in counties with high productivity soil while the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fills in gaps in low-elevation counties. Counties with large numbers of threatened species have more and stricter protection, particularly by regional entities like water management districts. The ability to synthesize and map land protection communities can help conservation planners tailor interventions to local contexts, position local agencies to approach collaborations more strategically, and suggest new hypotheses for researchers regarding interactions among different protection mechanisms.

The role of eco-tourism in ecological conservation in giant panda nature reserve.

Eco-tourism is rapidly developing in giant panda nature reserves in China, and is considered a popular tool for biodiversity conservation and the welfare of local communities. However, there is lack of empirical evidence on whether eco-tourism promotes the conservation behavior of local communities members, who live around nature reserves. To this end, this study constructed a framework to measure households' forest conservation activities, and conducted a questionnaire survey in 12 giant panda nature reserves in Sichuan Province, China. A total of 686 valid samples were obtained. A logit model was used to confirm whether income from community-based ecotourism (CBET) could enhance households' conservation behavior. The results show that households prefer three types of conservation practices, and CBET could significantly improve the income of households engaged in it. Income from CBET has motivated local households to participate in conservation activities; however, but the effects are different. In all three conservation activities, income from CBET has shown significant effects on promoting forest maintenance and protection activities, but not on reforestation ones. The results of this research could help us better understand the relationship between CBET and local households' conservation behavior. It also provides information for policymakers seeking for the best way to balance conservation and development.

Water quality and health risk assessment of the water bodies in the Yamdrok-tso basin, southern Tibetan Plateau.

Water resources in good quality guarantee the primary condition for the maintenance and development of the natural ecosystem and human society. Water quality status and health risk of the lake water bodies in the national nature reserve, the Yamdrok-tso basin, in the southern Tibetan Plateau are assessed by 25 water parameters including 12 heavy metal(loid)s. Results reveal that the lake water bodies possess relatively high pH (9.68), high concentrations of F (1.66 mg/L), Cu (13.92 µg/L), As (41.60 µg/L), Pb (26.69 µg/L), and U (19.53 µg/L), and a low value of dissolved oxygen (19.30%). The pollution indices (heavy metal pollution index of 0.88-22.88, heavy metal evaluation index of 0.18-3.75, and the degree of contamination of -8.82 to -5.25) demonstrate that the lake water bodies are in a low pollution level with respect to heavy metal(loid)s. The evaluation of water quality based on the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method suggests that 75.56% of the water samples meet the regulation of the China National Standard for water resources in national nature reserves. Health risk assessment shows that potential hazards exist on this region when the residents under long-term exposure to the lake water through oral and dermal pathways, of which children and adults are mostly exposed to As and F for non-carcinogenic and As for carcinogenic risks, especially for children. Results of this study contribute to targeted water resources management in the national nature reserves.

Allocating resources for land protection using continuous optimization: biodiversity conservation in the United States.

Spatial optimization approaches that were originally developed to help conservation organizations determine protection decisions over small spatial scales are now used to inform global or continental scale priority setting. However, the different decision contexts involved in large-scale resource allocation need to be considered. We present a continuous optimization approach in which a decision-maker allocates funding to regional offices. Local decision-makers then use these funds to implement habitat protection efforts with varying effectiveness when evaluated in terms of the funder's goals. We illustrate this continuous formulation by examining the relative priority that should be given to different counties in the coterminous United States when acquiring land to establish new protected areas. If weighting all species equally, counties in the southwest United States, where large areas can be bought cheaply, are priorities for protection. If focusing only on species of conservation concern, priorities shift to locations rich in such species, particularly near expanding exurban areas facing high rates of future habitat conversion (e.g., south-central Texas). Priorities for protection are sensitive to what is assumed about local ecological and decision-making processes. For example, decision-makers who doubt the efficacy of local land protection efforts should focus on a few key areas, while optimistic decision-makers should disperse funding more widely. Efforts to inform large-scale conservation priorities should reflect better the types of choice that decision-makers actually face when working over these scales. They also need to report the sensitivity of recommended priorities to what are often unstated assumptions about local processes affecting conservation outcomes.

What did China's National Wetland Conservation Program Achieve？Observations of changes in land cover and ecosystem services in the Sanjiang Plain.

China implemented the National Wetland Conservation Program (NWCP) from 2002 to protect and rehabilitate wetlands. Under the background of sustainable development, assessment on the effectiveness of the NWCP is important to ecosystem management, especially in the Sanjiang Plain, the largest marsh distribution area and hotspot area with wetland loss. To achieve this aim, this study examined the changes in land cover and ecosystem services (ESs) from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2015 in the Sanjiang Plain as well as the nine national nature reserves for wetlands (NNRWs) by means of Landsat series images and the InVEST model. Results reveal that the NWCP played critical roles in reducing wetland loss and improving regional ESs. The shrinkage rate of wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain has been decreased remarkably, with a declined rate of wetland loss from 750 km2 yr-1 to 189 km2 yr-1. The reduction rate of habitat area in good suitable grade and ecosystem carbon stock declined notably during the period 2000-2015 compared to the period 1990-2000. The amount of water retention increased by 5.4%, while the grain production capacity was enhanced by nine times from 1990 to 2015. Specifically, since 2000, the reduction rate of wetland area in NNRWs (33 km2 yr-1) was obviously lower than that in the entire Sanjiang Plain, whilst various ESs in NNRWs were better than that in the whole Sanjiang Plain. This study is expected to provide an example for evaluating the effectiveness of the NWCP at other regions and support regional wetland conservation management.

[Assessing in-situ conservation status of threatened medicinal vascular plants in central China].

It is of great significance to carry out scientific investigation of threatened species and assess their in-situ conservation status in order to guide the conservation and management of these species within a region. In this study, we explored and assessed the biodiversity and in-situ conservation status of the threatened medicinal vascular plants(TMVPs) in central China. The results showed that there were 276 TMVPs in central China, including 18 critically endangered(CR), 77 endangered(EN), and 181 vulnerable(VU) species. Of which, 222 TMVPs were distributed in 49 national nature reserves, with an in-situ conservation rate of 80.43%. And the in-situ conservation rate of CR, EN and NR species were 83.33%, 77.92% and 81.22%, respectively. The complementary algorithm was used to select the nine national nature reserves with the highest protection and complementary contribution to the TMVPs. The cumulative protection contribution rate of these nine nature reserves was 81.98%. Fifty-four TMVPs were distributed outside of national nature reserves, while mainly distributed within 10 hotspot counties including Badong county, Hubei province, Sangzhi county, Hunan province, Jianghua Yao Autonomous county, Hunan province and so on. In general, TMVPs are well protected by the national nature reserves in central China. However, there are still some conservation gaps. It is necessary to carry out further field investigation on the species with conservation gaps and identify the gap areas, so as to provide scientific guidance for the optimization of the conservation of TMVPs in this region.

Impacts by expansion of human settlements on nature reserves in China.

Expansion of human settlements affects nature reserves in various ways. Planning ahead can help to divert or mitigate the impacts but a good understanding of these impacts is a prerequisite. In this study, we estimated the impacts caused by the expansion of human settlements on nature reserves in China by 2050 under different development and conservation scenarios. Our results show that 5016 km2 of nature reserves may be encroached by the expansion of human settlements under the scenario of high growth and weak protection, a ten-fold increase compared to 2010. In addition, new settlements may fragment landscapes in 243 nature reserves and increase the level of fragmentation in 109 nature reserves. Furthermore, expansion of human settlements in surrounding areas may expose 164 nature reserves to threats of human activities and increase the threat levels to 540 nature reserves. The impacts will be lower if protection is stronger or economic growth is slower. Among all nature reserves, those administered at the county level will be affected the most. Nature reserves that protect forests and inland wetlands will be affected more than nature reserves protecting other objects. Nature reserves in East and South China will be influenced more than reserves in other regions. Findings from China show that the expansion of human settlements poses serious challenges to nature reserves in the future, especially in places where economic growth is fast and nature reserves are weakly protected. Proactive conservation strategies have to be developed and implemented forcefully to manage these impacts. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the potential conflict between human settlements and nature reserves.

Identifying potential refugia and corridors under climate change: A case study of endangered Sichuan golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Qinling Mountains, China.

Climate change threatens endangered species and challenges current conservation strategies. Effective conservation requires vulnerability assessments for species susceptible to climate change and adaptive strategies to mitigate threats associated with climate. In this paper, we used the Maxent to model the impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Sichuan golden monkey Rhinopithecus roxellana. Our results showed that (i) suitable habitat for Sichuan golden monkey was predicted to decrease by 37% in 2050s under climate change; (ii) the mean elevations of suitable habitat in the 2050s was estimated to shift 160 m higher; (iii) nature reserves protect 62% of current suitable habitat and 56% of future suitable habitat; and (iv) 49% of current suitable habitat was predicted to be vulnerable to future climate change. Given these results, we proposed conservation implications to mitigate the impacts of climate change on Sichuan golden monkey, including adjusting range of national park, establishing habitat corridors, and conducting long-term monitoring.

Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change.

Protected areas (PAs) are intended to provide native biodiversity and habitats with a refuge against the impacts of global change, particularly acting as natural filters against biological invasions. In practice, however, it is unknown how effective PAs will be in shielding native species from invasions under projected climate change. Here, we investigate the current and future potential distributions of 100 of the most invasive terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species in Europe. We use this information to evaluate the combined threat posed by climate change and invasions to existing PAs and the most susceptible species they shelter. We found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by any of the invaders investigated, despite offering climatically suitable conditions for invasion. In addition, hotspots of invasive species and the most susceptible native species to their establishment do not match at large continental scales. Furthermore, the predicted richness of invaders is 11%-18% significantly lower inside PAs than outside them. Invasive species are rare in long-established national parks and nature reserves, which are actively protected and often located in remote and pristine regions with very low human density. In contrast, the richness of invasive species is high in the more recently designated Natura 2000 sites, which are subject to high human accessibility. This situation may change in the future, since our models anticipate important shifts in species ranges toward the north and east of Europe at unprecedented rates of 14-55 km/decade, depending on taxonomic group and scenario. This may seriously compromise the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of the resistance that PAs provide against biological invasions and climate change on a continental scale and illustrates their strategic value in safeguarding native biodiversity.

Quantifying the extent of protected-area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement in Australia.

The use of total area protected as the predominant indicator of progress in building protected area (PA) networks is receiving growing criticism. Documenting the full dynamics of PA networks, both in terms of the gains and losses in protection, provides a much more informative approach to tracking progress. To this end, documentation of PA downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD) has increased. Studies of PADDD events generally fail to place these losses in the context of gains in protection; therefore, they omit important elements of PA network dynamics. To address this limitation, we used a spatially explicit approach to identify every parcel of land added to and excised from the Australian terrestrial PA network and PAs that had their level of protection changed over 17 years (1997-2014). By quantifying changes in the spatial configuration of the PA network with time-series data (spatial layers for nine separate time steps), ours is the first assessment of the dynamics (increases and decreases in area and level of protection) of a PA network and the first comprehensive assessment of PADDD in a developed country. We found that the Australian network was highly dynamic; there were 5233 changes in area or level of protection over 17 years. Against a background of enormous increases in area protected, we identified over 1500 PADDD events, which affected over one-third of the network, which were largely the result of widespread downgrading of protection. We believe our approach provides a mechanism for robust tracking of trends in the world's PAs through the use of data from the World Database on Protected Areas. However, this will require greater transparency and improved data standards in reporting changes to PAs.

Molecular detection, subtyping of Blastocystis sp. in migratory birds from nature reserves in northeastern China.

Migratory birds play an important role in the cross-regional transmission of zoonotic pathogens. Assessing the presence of zoonotic pathogens carried by migratory birds is critical for disease control. However, information about Blastocystis infection in the migratory birds is very limited. Thus, we conducted this study with the aim to explore the occurrence, prevalence and subtyping of Blastocystis in four breeds of migratory birds in northeastern China. From October 2022 to April 2023, a total of 427 fresh fecal samples were obtained from four breeds of migratory birds in five nature reserves in northeastern China, and screened for Blastocystis by PCR amplification. Twenty-one (4.92 %) of the studied samples were confirmed Blastocystis-positive, and two known zoonotic subtypes ST6 and ST7 were founded, with ST7 being the major subtype. Until now, we firstly reported the infection status and subtyping of Blastocystis in the migratory Greater White-Fronted Goose, White Stork, Oriental White Stork and Bean Goose in China. More importantly, these findings present further data on the genetic diversity and transmission routes of Blastocystis and further arouse public health concerns about this organism.

"Land-sparing benefits biodiversity while land-sharing benefits ecosystem services": Stakeholders' perspectives on biodiversity conservation strategies in boreal forests.

Biodiversity conservation and economic profit from forests can be combined by various land-sparing and land-sharing approaches. Using a semi-structured survey, we evaluated support for scenarios representing contrasting conservation strategies in a managed boreal forest landscape. Land-sparing approaches were supported by the conservation organisation, regional administrations and the forest company, mainly motivated by the benefit for biodiversity based on ecological theory. Land-sharing approaches were supported by one recreational organisation, some municipalities and the forest owners' association, mainly motivated by the delivery of ecosystem services. Stakeholder groups using certain ecosystem services had motivations that we related to an anthropocentric mindset, while others focused more on species conservation, which can be related both to an anthropocentric or an ecocentric mindsets. Forest conservation planning should consider stakeholders' preferences to handle land-use conflicts. Since reaching consensus among multiple stakeholders seems unfeasible, a combination of land-sparing and land-sharing approaches is probably the best compromise.

Temporal trends of land-use favourability for the strongly declining little bustard: assessing the role of protected areas.

The little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) is a steppe bird strongly and negatively influenced by agricultural intensification in Europe. Here, we use the little bustard as a model species to examine how favourability (relative occurrence likelihood of a species based on environmental characteristics, such as habitat availability) varies regionally with degree of protection in north-western Spain. The Natura2000 network is one of the main biodiversity conservation tools of the European Union, aiming to protect areas hosting species of conservation concern from unfavourable land-use changes. The network covers many landscapes across the continent, including farmland. Additionally, we examine the relationship between trends in land-use favourability and little bustard population trends over a decade in the Nature Reserve of Lagunas de Villafáfila, a protected area also in the Natura2000 network where active and intense management focused on steppe bird conservation is carried out. Favourability was much greater in Villafáfila than in both protected areas with lower degree of protection and in non-protected areas. Land-use favourability increased slightly between 2011 and 2020 both in and out of protected areas, whereas little bustard populations declined sharply in that period, even in Villafáfila. Spatial variations in little bustard abundance within Villafáfila depended on social attraction (increasing with the number of neighbouring males) but not significantly on small-scale variations in land-use favourability. These results suggest that land-use management in Natura2000 areas needs to be more conservation-focused, favouring natural and seminatural habitats and traditional farming practices to improve land-use favourability for little bustards and other steppe birds. Additional factors, such as field-level agricultural management or social interaction variables that may cause an Allee effect, should be incorporated in little bustard favourability models to improve their use in conservation planning.

Change of spermatophyte family diversity in distribution patterns with climate change in China.

The global climate is undergoing extraordinary changes, profoundly influencing a variety of ecological processes. Understanding the distribution patterns and predicting the future of plant diversity is crucial for biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change. However, current studies on predictive geographic patterns of plant diversity often fail to separate the effects of global climate change from other influencing factors. In this study, we developed a spatial simulation model of spermatophyte family diversity (SSMSFD) based on data collected from 200 nature reserves covering approximately 1,500,000 km2, where direct anthropogenic disturbances to plant diversity and the surrounding environment are absent. We predicted the spermatophyte family diversity for all provinces in China in 2020, 2040, and 2080, considering the impacts of global climate change. On average, China currently exhibits 118 plant families per 25 km2, with a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. When considering only the effects of global climate change, excluding direct anthropogenic disturbances, our results indicate that under the Shared Socioeconomic Path Scenarios (SSPs) 245 and 585, spermatophyte family diversity is projected to slowly increase in most Chinese provinces from 2021 to 2080. Notably, the increase is more pronounced under SSPs585 compared to SSPs245. Global climate change has a positive effect on plant diversity, in contrast to the negative impact of anthropogenic disturbances that often lead to declines in plant diversity. This research highlights the contrasting outcomes of future plant diversity under the sole influence of global climate change and the significant negative effects of anthropogenic disturbances on diversity.