Global, regional, and national burden of premenstrual syndrome, 1990-2019: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the burden of premenstrual syndrome (PMS) at the global, regional, and national levels across 21 regions and 204 countries and territories? SUMMARY ANSWER: Over the past few decades, the global prevalent cases of PMS have grown significantly from 652.5 million in 1990 to 956.0 million in 2019, representing a 46.5% increase. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: PMS, which affects almost half of reproductive women worldwide, has substantial social, occupational, academic, and psychological effects on women's lives. However, no comprehensive and detailed epidemiological estimates of PMS by age and socio-demographic index (SDI) at global, regional, and national levels have been reported. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: An age- and SDI-stratified systematic analysis of the prevalence and years lived with disability (YLD) of PMS by age and SDI across 21 regions and 204 countries and territories has been performed. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The prevalence and YLD of PMS from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved directly from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study. The number, rates per 100 000 persons, and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of prevalence and YLD were estimated at the global, regional, and national levels. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Globally, the prevalent cases of PMS increased by 46.5% from 652.5 million in 1990 to 956.0 million in 2019; in contrast, however, the age-standardized prevalence rate was approximately stable at 24 431.15/100 000 persons in 1990 and 24 406.51/100 000 persons in 2019 (AAPC, 0[95% CI: -0.01 to 0.01]). Globally, the YLD was 8.0 million in 2019 and 5.4 million in 1990, with a sizable increase over the past 30 years. The age-standardized YLD rate was stable (AAPC 0.01, P = 0.182), at 203.45/100 000 persons in 1990 and 203.76/100 000 persons in 2019. The age-standardized burden estimates were the highest in the low-middle SDI regions and the lowest in the high SDI regions. Peaks in burden rate estimates were all observed in the 40-44 years age group. Regional age-standardized burden estimates were the highest in South Asia and the lowest in Western Sub-Saharan Africa. The national age-standardized burden estimates were the highest in Pakistan and the lowest in Niger. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The accuracy of the results depended on the quality and quantity of the GBD 2019 data. Fortunately, the GBD study endeavoured to retrieve data globally and applied multiple models to optimize the completeness, accuracy, and reliability of the data. In addition, the GBD study took the country as its basic unit and neglected the influence of race. Further study is warranted to compare differences in PMS burden associated with race. Finally, no data are available on the aetiology and risk information related to PMS, which might help us to better understand the trends and age distribution of PMS and help local governments formulate more detailed policies and comprehensive interventions. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Although the age-standardized prevalence/YLD rate has been stable over the past 30 years, the absolute number of prevalent cases and YLD grew significantly worldwide from 1990 to 2019. Public health-related policies should be implemented to reduce the prevalence and alleviate the symptoms of PMS. Lifestyle changes and cognitive-behavioral therapy are critical in helping to reduce the burden of PMS. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant number 2022YFC2704100) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82001498, No. 82371648). The authors declare no conflict of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Global burden of acute hepatitis E between 1990 and 2019 and projections until 2030.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute hepatitis E (AHE) is still a public health issue worldwide. Here, we report the global burden of AHE in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI), and predict the future trends to 2030. METHODS: Data on AHE were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and joinpoint analysis were used to determine the burden trend. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 19.47 million (95% UI, 16.04 to 23.37 million) incident cases of AHE globally, with a 19% increase since 1990. Age-standardized rate (ASR) of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalent and incident cases declined from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the ASR of incidence, prevalence and DALYs due to HEV infection were highest in the same regions of South Asia for both sexes. Southern Sub-Saharan Africa presented the highest increases in the ASR for incidence of HEV infection in both males (AAPC = .25) and females (AAPC = .24) from 1990 to 2019. Incident cases are higher in males than females before 55-59 years old. The SDI values were negatively correlated with the age-standardized DALYs. Between 2019 and 2030, the ASR for incidence and prevalence of HEV for both sexes showed an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: Although the overall ASR of AHE decreased, the burden of AHE remains an underappreciated problem for society. The findings may provide useful information for policymakers to develop appropriate strategies aimed at reducing the burden of AHE.

Burden of silica-attributed pneumoconiosis and tracheal, bronchus & lung cancer for global and countries in the national program for the elimination of silicosis, 1990-2019: a comparative study.

BACKGROUND: In industries worldwide, crystalline silica is pervasive and poses risks of pneumoconiosis and respiratory malignancies, with the latter being a knowledge gap in disease burden research that this study aims to address. By integrating both diseases, we also seek to provide an in-depth depiction of the silica-attributed disease burden. METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 were extracted to analyze the disease burden due to silica exposure. The trends of age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) from 1990 to 2019, as well as the age-specific number and rate of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 1990 and 2019, were presented using GraphPad Prism software. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) on ASMR and ASDR were calculated using joinpoint regression models. RESULTS: The global trends of disease burden due to silica exposure from 1990 to 2019 showed a significant decrease, with AAPCs on ASMR and ASDR of -1.22 (-1.38, -1.06) and - 1.18 (-1.30, -1.05), respectively. Vietnam was an exception with an unprecedented climb in ASMR and ASDR in general over the years. The age-specific deaths and DALYs mainly peaked in the age group 60-64. In comparison to 1990, the number of deaths and DALYs became higher after 45 years old in 2019, while their rates stayed consistently lower in 2019. Males experienced an elevated age-specific burden than females. China's general age-standardized burden of pneumoconiosis and tracheal, bronchus & lung (TBL) cancer ranked at the forefront, along with the highest burden of pneumoconiosis in Chilean males and South African females, as well as the prominent burden of TBL cancer in Turkish males, Thai females, and overall Vietnamese. The age-specific burden of TBL cancer surpassed that of pneumoconiosis, and a delay was presented in the pneumoconiosis pinnacle burden compared to the TBL cancer. Besides, the burden of pneumoconiosis indicated a sluggish growth trend with advancing age. CONCLUSION: Our research highlights the cruciality of continuous enhancements in occupational health legislation for countries seriously suffering from industrial silica pollution and the necessity of prioritizing preventive measures for male workers and elderly retirees.

Spatial-temporal trends in leprosy burden and its associations with socioeconomic and physical geographic factors: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of our study was to assess the multiscalar changes in leprosy burden and its associated risk factors over the last three decades. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted an in-depth examination of leprosy's spatial-temporal trends at multiple geographical scale (global, regional, and national), utilizing information from Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019). METHODS: Incidence and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leprosy were determined, with countries categorized based on leprosy incidence changes. We examined socioeconomic and physical geography influences on leprosy incidence via Spearman correlation analysis, using ternary phase diagrams to reveal the synergetic effects on leprosy occurrence. RESULTS: Globally, incident cases of leprosy decreased by 27.86% from 1990 to 2019, with a reduction in ASIR (EAPC = -2.53), yet trends were not homogeneous across regions. ASIR and EAPC correlated positively with sociodemographic index (SDI), and an ASIR growth appeared in high SDI region (EAPC = 3.07). Leprosy burden was chiefly distributed in Tropical Latin America, Oceania, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Negative correlations were detected between the incidence of leprosy and factors of SDI, GDP per capita, urban population to total population, and precipitation, whereas the number of refugee population, temperature, and elevation showed opposite positive results. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a global decline in leprosy over the past three decades, the disparities of disease occurrence at regional and national scales still persisted. Socioeconomic and physical geographic factors posed an obvious influence on the transmission risk of leprosy. The persistence and regional fluctuations of leprosy incidence necessitate the ongoing dynamic and multilayered control strategies worldwide in combating this ancient disease.

Historical trends in breast cancer presentation among women in Pakistan from join-point regression analysis.

Objective: Breast cancer prevalence in Pakistan is among the highest in Asian countries. Recent changes in the temporal trends of breast cancer are largely unknown and examination of these trends can provide a direction in national planning for future health programs. The aim of this study was to examine recent changes in breast cancer incidence in Pakistan. Methods: A total of 9,771 diagnosed breast cancer women were registered from 2004 to 2015 in three hospitals of Karachi. Join-point regression analysis was applied to assessing the age-standardized breast cancer presentation trends for each five-year age group. Age-specific average annual percentage changes were also calculated to assess the proportion of women with increased or decreased incidence of breast cancer. Results: Age-standardized rates of breast cancer steadily increased from 24.7 per 100,000 in 2004, to 45.4 per 100,000 in 2015. The analytical trend based on the join-point model showed an average percentage increase breast cancer prevalence of 5.4 (95% CI = 3.1, 7.8). Significantly higher prevalence rates were identified among women aged 40-44 years and 65-69 years with an average percentage change of 18.5 (95% CI = 2.3, 37.2) and 14.3 (95% CI = 2.2, 27.9) respectively in the four years from 2011 to 2015. Conclusion: The findings indicate the trend in age-standardized prevalence increased significantly in all age groups with noticeably larger increases observed among older and post-menopausal women from 2011 to 2015. The results warrant the need for more targeted interventions to high-risk groups and a sound foundation for cancer control program planning and policy development in Pakistan to reduce the increasing incidence of breast cancer.

[Global trends in the incidence and prevalence of pneumoconiosis in 204 countries/territories from 1990 to 2019].

Objective: To analyze the changing trend of incidence and prevalence of pneumoconiosis globally, and provide scientific basis for the formulation of health policy. Methods: In June 2022, through the Global Health Data exchange (GHDx) query tool (http: //ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) , the pneumoconiosis incidence and prevalence data was downloaded and organized. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized rate (ASR) were used to estimate the trends of pneumoconiosis from 1990 to 2019. EAPC was estimated by linear regression model based on ASR. Results: The overall ASR of the incidence and prevalence of pneumoconiosis decreased from 1990 to 2019, and their EAPCs were-0.85% (95%CI: -1.11%--0.60%) and -0.78% (95%CI: -1.08%--0.49%) . Over the past 30 years, the incidence and prevalence of pneumoconiosis in all SDI areas showed decreasing trends, especially in high SDI areas, their EAPCs were -1.46% (95%CI: -1.76%--1.15%) and -1.99% (95%CI: -2.44%--1.53%) . 110 countries/areas showed increasing trends in age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) , with Iran and Georgia showing the most pronounced upward trend, their EAPCs were 5.32% (95%CI: 4.43%-6.22%) and 4.39% (95%CI: 3.81%-4.97%) . 125 countries/areas showed anincreasing trends in prevalence ASR, with Iran had the fastest rise in prevalence (EAPC=6.40%, 95%CI: 5.33%-7.49%) . Conclusion: Although decreasing trends in the burden of pneumoconiosis are observed globally from 1990 to 2019, but the burden of pneumoconiosis in low-and middle-income countries or regions are still heavy. We need more effective strategies to prevent and reduce the burden of pneumoconiosis.

Gastric cancer incidence trends in China and Japan from 1990 to 2019: Disentangling age-period-cohort patterns.

BACKGROUND: Recent data have shown divergent trends in gastric cancer (GC) incidence between China and Japan; however, the cause for has not been explored. METHODS: We retrieved GC incidence data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study, stratified by sex for both countries. We analyzed annual average percentage change (AAPC) via a joinpoint regression model and estimated the effects of age, period, and cohort via the age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence rate trends for GC decreased in both countries and both sexes, but the reduction was more pronounced in Japan because the AAPC for Japanese males (AAPC = -2.65%; 95% CI, -2.98 to -2.32) was eight times greater than that of Chinese males (AAPC = -0.30%; 95% CI, -0.5 to -0.09). The age and cohort effects on the trend are similar in both countries: the risk of GC incidence increased with age among the Chinese and the Japanese but was lower among younger birth cohorts. The two countries showed contrasting trends over the study period; although the risk of GC rapidly decreased for Japanese males and females, it increased by twofold among Chinese males. CONCLUSIONS: The period effect is the main reason for the divergent trends in age-standardized incidence rate for GC in China and Japan. By comparing national cancer control programs in both countries, we concluded that countries with a high prevalence of GC, such as China, can learn from Japan's experience in controlling GC by actively conducting national population screening, which is expected to facilitate both prevention and treatment of GC. LAY SUMMARY: More than one-half of all new gastric cancer (GC) worldwide occur in China and Japan, but the reasons for the different incidence trends have not been thoroughly analyzed. Analysis using the age-period-cohort model confirmed that the cohort effect was the main reason for the decline in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for GC and that the period effect may be the main reason for the divergent trends in gastric cancer ASIR in China and Japan.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on liver disease-related mortality rates in the United States.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The pandemic has resulted in an increase of deaths not directly related to COVID-19 infection. We aimed to use a national death dataset to determine the impact of the pandemic on people with liver disease in the USA, focusing on alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: Using data from the National Vital Statistic System from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) platform and ICD-10 codes, we identified deaths associated with liver disease. We evaluated observed vs. predicted mortality for 2020-2021 based on trends from 2010-2019 with joinpoint and prediction modelling analysis. RESULTS: Among 626,090 chronic liver disease-related deaths between 2010 and 2021, Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) for ALD dramatically increased between 2010-2019 and 2020-2021 (annual percentage change [APC] 3.5% to 17.6%, p <0.01), leading to a higher observed ASMR (per 100,000 persons) than predicted for 2020 (15.67 vs. 13.04) and 2021 (17.42 vs. 13.41). ASMR for NAFLD also increased during the pandemic (APC: 14.5%), whereas the rates for hepatitis B and C decreased. Notably, the ASMR rise for ALD was most pronounced in non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, and Alaska Indians/Native Americans (APC: 11.7%, 10.8%, 18.0%, all p <0.05), with similar but less critical findings for NAFLD, whereas rates were steady for non-Hispanic Asians throughout 2010-2021 (APC: 4.9%). The ASMR rise for ALD was particularly severe for the 25-44 age group (APC: 34.6%, vs. 13.7% and 12.6% for 45-64 and ≥65, all p <0.01), which were also all higher than pre-COVID-19 rates (all p <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: ASMRs for ALD and NAFLD increased at an alarming rate during the COVID-19 pandemic with the largest disparities among the young, non-Hispanic White, and Alaska Indian/Native American populations. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The pandemic has led to an increase of deaths directly and indirectly related to SARS-CoV-2 infection. As shown in this study, age-standardised mortality rates for alcohol-associated liver disease and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease substantially increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA and far exceeded expected levels predicted from past trends, especially among the young, non-Hispanic White, and Alaska Indian/Native American populations. However, much of this increase was not directly related to COVID-19. Therefore, for the ongoing pandemic as well as its recovery phase, adherence to regular monitoring and care for people with chronic liver disease should be prioritised and awareness should be raised among patients, care providers, healthcare systems, and public health policy makers.

Estimation of fMRI responses related to epileptic discharges using Bayesian hierarchical modeling.

Simultaneous electroencephalography-functional MRI (EEG-fMRI) is a unique and noninvasive method for epilepsy presurgical evaluation. When selecting voxels by null-hypothesis tests, the conventional analysis may overestimate fMRI response amplitudes related to interictal epileptic discharges (IEDs), especially when IEDs are rare. We aimed to estimate fMRI response amplitudes represented by blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) percentage changes related to IEDs using a hierarchical model. It involves the local and distributed hemodynamic response homogeneity to regularize estimations. Bayesian inference was applied to fit the model. Eighty-two epilepsy patients who underwent EEG-fMRI and subsequent surgery were included in this study. A conventional voxel-wise general linear model was compared to the hierarchical model on estimated fMRI response amplitudes and on the concordance between the highest response cluster and the surgical cavity. The voxel-wise model overestimated fMRI responses compared to the hierarchical model, evidenced by a practically and statistically significant difference between the estimated BOLD percentage changes. Only the hierarchical model differentiated brief and long-lasting IEDs with significantly different BOLD percentage changes. Overall, the hierarchical model outperformed the voxel-wise model on presurgical evaluation, measured by higher prediction performance. When compared with a previous study, the hierarchical model showed higher performance metric values, but the same or lower sensitivity. Our results demonstrated the capability of the hierarchical model of providing more physiologically reasonable and more accurate estimations of fMRI response amplitudes induced by IEDs. To enhance the sensitivity of EEG-fMRI for presurgical evaluation, it may be necessary to incorporate more appropriate spatial priors and bespoke decision strategies.

HIV-related mortality in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: US progress toward ending the HIV epidemic was disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact of the pandemic on HIV-related mortality and potential disparities. METHODS: Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the United States (US) Census Bureau, HIV-related mortality data of decedents aged ≥25 years between 2012 and 2021 were analyzed. Excess HIV-related mortality rates were estimated by determining the difference between observed and projected mortality rates during the pandemic. The trends of mortality were quantified with joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the 79,725 deaths documented in adults aged 25 years and older between 2012 and 2021, a significant downward trend was noted in HIV-related mortality rates before the pandemic, followed by a surge during the pandemic. The observed mortality rates were 18.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.1%-25.5%) and 25.4% (95%CI: 19.9%-30.4%) higher than the projected values in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Both of these percentages were higher than that in the general population in 2020 (16.4%, 95%CI: 14.9%-17.9%) and 2021 (19.8%, 95%CI: 18.0%-21.6%), respectively. Increased HIV-related mortality was observed across all age subgroups, but those aged 25-44 years demonstrated the greatest relative increase and the lowest COVID-19-related deaths when compared to middle- and old-aged decedents. Disparities were observed across racial/ethnic subgroups and geographic regions. CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic led to a reversal in the attainments made to reduce the prevalence of HIV. Individuals living with HIV were disproportionately affected during the pandemic. Thoughtful policies are needed to address the disparity in excess HIV-related mortality.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Disease from 1990 to 2019 Attributable to Dietary Factors.

BACKGROUND: Although dietary factors play a crucial role in the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the specific dietary risk factors vary across regions and require further investigation. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to analyze the burden of CVD due to different dietary factors by sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI) for 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 and analyzed to determine population attributable fractions (PAFs), mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and trends thereof, for CVDs attributable to dietary risk factors from 1990 to 2019. We used a generalized linear model with a Gaussian distribution to calculate the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to dietary risk factors. We also used a comparative risk-assessment framework to estimate CVD mortality and DALYs attributable to dietary risk factors. RESULTS: Approximately 40% of CVD mortality and DALY rates were attributable to dietary risk factors, with high-sodium intake, low whole grain intake, and low legume intake being the greatest dietary risk factors globally. Moreover, high SDI regions had the highest PAFs for CVD mortality and DALYs associated with high red and processed meat intake, middle SDI regions had the highest PAFs with high-sodium intake, and low SDI regions had the highest PAFs with low fruit and vegetable intake. The highest PAFs for CVD mortality and DALYs were associated with low whole grain intake in 13 and 9 regions, respectively. CONCLUSION: Reducing sodium intake and increasing whole grain and legume intake should be the top priority worldwide for improving regional diets and thereby decreasing CVD burdens. Other priorities should be set for regions with different SDIs, depending on the predominant dietary risk factors for CVDs in the respective regions.

Trends in mortality in patients with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARD) during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.

The study aimed to analyze the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality rates in patients with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARD) in Mexico. We selected SARD-related deaths using National Open Data and Information from the Ministry of Health, Mexico, and ICD-10 codes. We assessed the observed compared to the predicted mortality values for 2020 and 2021, employing trends from 2010 to 2019 with joinpoint and prediction modelling analyses. Among 12,742 deaths due to SARD between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) increased significantly between 2010 and 2019 (pre-pandemic) (annual percentage change [APC] 1.1%; 95% CI 0.2-2.1), followed by a non-significant decrease during the pandemic period (APC 13.9%; 95% CI 13.9-5.3). In addition, the observed ASMR of 1.19 for 2020 for SARD and of 1.14 for 2021 were lower than the predicted values of 1.25 (95% CI 1.22-1.28) for 2020 and 1.25 (95% CI 1.20-1.30) for 2021. Similar findings were identified for specific SARD, mainly systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), or by sex or age group. Interestingly, the observed mortality rates for SLE in the Southern region of 1.00 in 2020 and 1.01 in 2021 were both significantly greater than the predicted values of 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77) in 2020 and 0.71 (95% CI 0.63-0.79). In Mexico, the observed SARD mortality rates were not higher than the expected values during the pandemic, except for SLE in the Southern region. No differences by sex or age group were identified.

Global incidence and death estimates of chronic kidney disease due to hypertension from 1990 to 2019, an ecological analysis of the global burden of diseases 2019 study.

BACKGROUND: The intricate relationship between hypertension and chronic kidney disease (CKD) presents a global challenge for prevention of hypertension-related CKD. This study's objective is to analyze age, gender, regional disparities, and evolving trends in the disease burden of hypertension-related CKD. We aim to estimate changing spatial and temporal trends in incidence and mortality rates, considering the socio-demographic index (SDI), to inform health strategies effectively. METHOD: Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and death rates (ASDR) were collected from the GBD 2019. Trend analysis was conducted by Joinpoint regression of ASRs from 1990 to 2019. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed to obtain spatial patterns. The association between SDI and burden of CKD due to hypertension was estimated using a Pearson correlation analysis. RESULTS: The global ASIR and ASDR due to hypertension-related CKD were 19.45 (95% CI, 17.85 to 21.09) and 5.88 (95% CI, 4.95 to 6.82) per 100 K population in 2019, representing increases of 17.89% and 13.29% compared to 1990, respectively. The elderly population and males were found the highest ASIR and ASDR. The high SDI region had the highest ASIRs, while low SDI regions experienced the highest ASDRs. Joinpoint regression found both global ASIR and ASDR showed increasing trends, with the highest increases observed in middle- and high-SDI regions, respectively. The SDI exhibited a positive association with ASIRs but displayed an inverse V-shaped correlation with the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of ASIRs. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revel significant positive spatial autocorrelation for the AAPC of ASDRs and ASIRs, from 1990 to 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Results met the objectives, and demonstrated a rising global burden of hypertension-related CKD. Factors such as aging, gender, and regional variations should be considered when designing control measures and developing healthcare systems to effectively address the burden of this complex condition.

Global, regional, and national burdens of myocarditis, 1990-2019: systematic analysis from GBD 2019 : GBD for myocarditis.

OBJECTIVES: Myocarditis, a health-threatening heart disease, is attracting increasing attention. This systematic study was conducted to study the prevalence of disease through the trends of incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the last 30 years, which would be helpful for the policymakers to better the choices for reasonable decisions. METHODS: The global, regional, and national burdens of myocarditis from 1990-2019 were analyzed by using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. This study on myocarditis produced new findings according to age, sex, and Social-Demographic Index (SDI) by investigating DALYs, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and corresponding estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). RESULTS: The number of myocarditis incidence increased by 62.19%, from 780,410 cases in 1990 to 1,265,770 cases in 2019. The ASIR decreased by 4.42% (95%CI, from -0.26% to -0.21%) over the past 30 years. The number of deaths from myocarditis increased by 65.40% from 19,618 in 1990 to 324,490 in 2019, but the ASDR was relatively stable over the investigated period. ASDR increased in low-middle SDI regions (EAPC=0.48; 95%CI, 0.24 to 0.72) and decreased in low SDI regions (EAPC=-0.97; 95%CI, from -1.05 to -0.89). The age-standardized DALY rate decreased by 1.19% (95%CI, from -1.33% to -1.04%) per year. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, the ASIR and DALY for myocarditis decreased and the ASDR was stable over the past 30 years. The risk of incidences and death cases increased with age. Measures should be taken to control the risk of myocarditis in high-burden regions. Medical supplies should be improved in the high-middle SDI regions and middle SDI regions to reduce the deaths from myocarditis in these regions.

Global, regional and national trends in sex- and age-specific disability-adjusted life years of musculoskeletal disorders, 1990-2019.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the temporal trend of sex- and age-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders by region and cause. METHODS: Data were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) by sex, age, region and cause was calculated to examine the temporal trend of the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR). The sociodemographic index (SDI) and risk exposures were also examined. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the global ASDR for MSK disorders remained almost stable by sex and age group but decreased among females ages 0-14 years (EAPC = -0.27). Such age and sex patterns were nearly the same by SDI, except for high SDI regions, where ASDR increased in all subgroups except those ages 15-49 years. The trend in ASDR of MSK disorders for females and males ages 50-74 and ≥75 years increased in ∼80% of countries and territories. The greatest increase was in El Salvador for males ages 15-49 years (EAPC = 1.30), followed by Nicaragua. The association between EAPC and SDI was positive in developing regions, particularly among females ages 15-49 years, and negative in developed regions. A decreasing trend in ASDR was mainly driven by the decrease in low back pain, while the increasing trend was largely due to other MSK disorders and gout across sexes and age groups. CONCLUSIONS: There are great disparities in the age- and sex-specific trends in ASDR by cause on the global, regional and national levels. More differentiated prevention and management strategies are needed for MSK disorders.

Comparison of primary liver cancer mortality estimates from World Health Organization, global burden disease and global cancer observatory.

AIMS: This study aims to compare estimates of primary liver cancer mortality from World Health Organization (WHO), Global Burden Disease (GBD) and Global Cancer Observatory (GCO). METHODS: Liver cancer mortality was extracted from WHO, GBD and GCO for 92 countries for the most recent year. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was computed and used for current comparisons across the three data sources. Temporal trend for 75 countries was analysed and compared between WHO and GBD from 1990 to 2019 using joinpoint regression. Average annual percentage change for the most recent 10 years was used as indicator for change. RESULTS: The estimates of ASR were quite consistent across the three data sources, but most similar estimates were found between WHO and GCO in both region and country levels. The differences in ASR were negatively correlated with completeness of cause-of-death registration, human development index and proportion of liver cancer because of alcohol consumption. Consistent trends of ASR were found from 35 countries between WHO and GBD in the most recent 10 years. However, opposite trends were found from 10 countries with five from Southern America, four from Europe and one from Asia. Of the 18 countries for projection, opposite trends between WHO and GBD were found from seven countries. CONCLUSION: While the ASR of primary liver cancer mortality was comparable across the three data sources, most similar estimates were found between WHO and GCO. The opposite trends found from 10 countries between WHO and GBD raised concerns of true patterns in these countries.

Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Asian Countries: A Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the updated burden and temporal trends of cancer incidence and mortality in Asian countries. METHODOLOGY: The data used in this study were retrieved from the Global Cancer Observatory, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents volumes I-XI, and the World Health Organization mortality database. These data were used to calculate the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), with a 95% confidence interval (CI) by joinpoint regression analysis to determine the epidemiological trend in the past decade. RESULTS: In 2020, the cancer incidence in Asia was 169.1 per 1 00 000, accounting for 49.3% of the global cancer incidence. The most common cancers included lung (13.8%), breast (10.8%) and colorectal (10.6%) cancers. Its mortality was 101.6 per 1 00 000 (58.3% of the global cancer death) with lung (19.2%), liver (10.5%) and stomach (9.9%) cancers being the most common causes of cancer death. The cancer incidence had been increasing in female population, with Korea (AAPC = 5.73, 95% CI [5.30, 6.17], P < .001), Japan (AAPC = 2.67, 95% CI [2.12, 3.23], P < .001) and Kuwait (AAPC = 2.08, 95% CI [.49, 3.69], P = .016) showing the most significant increases in the past decade. The incidence increase was also observed among population aged <40 years old, with Korea (female AAPC = 8.42, 95% CI [7.40, 9.45], P < .001; male AAPC = 5.28, 95% CI [4.23, 6.33], P <.001), China (female AAPC = 2.94, 95% CI [2.07, 3.81], P < .001; male AAPC = 1.37, 95% CI [.57, 2.18], P = .004) and Japan (female AAPC = 2.88, 95% CI [1.88, 3.88], P = .016; male AAPC = 1.59, 95% CI [.40, 2.78], P = .015) showing the most significant increases. However, there was an overall decreasing trend of cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: There was a substantial burden of cancer incidence and mortality in Asia. Although there was a decreasing trend in cancer mortality, its incidence had been increasing especially among female and younger populations. Future studies could be done to further investigate the potential reasons for these epidemiologic trends.

Global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to alcohol use, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: To date, no study has evaluated trends in the burden of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2019 study. Herein, we report on the global burden of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in terms of age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019, based on analysis of GBD 2019 data. METHODS: The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to determine the trends in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the global age-standardized incidence rate showed an upward trend (EAPC = 0.10), whereas the global age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs showed a downward trend (EAPC = - 0.88 and - 0.89, respectively). Low-(187.08 in 2019) and low-middle (178.11 in 2019)SDI regions had much higher age-standardized DALYs. Eastern Europe saw the largest increases in the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs. Lithuania had the largest increase in mortalities caused by alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases(EAPC = 4.61). The age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs were higher in men than in women. CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases increased globally; however, both the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs caused by alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases showed decreasing trends. Future studies should devise preventive strategies for low and low-middle SDI regions, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, and other high-risk regions.

Global and national trends in years of life lost and years lived with disability caused by three common gastrointestinal cancers from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal cancers are a critical global cancer burden, and tracking their trends would inform the health policies. METHODS: Trends of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) caused by three common gastrointestinal cancers were estimated using annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized rate (ASR). Data was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. RESULTS: The ASR per 100,000 population-year of YLLs caused by esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and colorectal cancer were 137.98, 264.15, and 282.51 in 2019, respectively. Their overall trends of YLLs declined during 1990-2019, with the respective EAPCs being - 1.42 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: - 1.71 to - 1.13), - 2.13 (95%CI: - 2.29 to - 1.96), and - 0.25 (95%CI: - 0.30 to - 0.19). Meanwhile, decreasing trends of YLDs caused by esophageal cancer and stomach cancer were observed, in which the EAPCs were - 0.67 (95%: - 0.94 to - 0.40) and - 0.85 (95%CI: - 0.97 to - 0.73), respectively. However, an increasing trend was seen in that of colorectal cancer (EAPC = 0.83, 95%CI: 0.77 to 0.89). Among countries, the largest decrease in trend of YLLs was that of stomacher cancer in the Republic of Korea (EAPC = - 5.88, 95%CI: - 6.07 to - 5.69). However, pronounced increasing trend of YLDs caused by colorectal cancer occurred in China (EAPC = 4.40, 95%CI: 4.07 to 4.72). CONCLUSIONS: Decreasing trends in YLLs and YLDs caused by esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and colorectal cancer were observed in most countries and regions, indicating that the great progress had been achieved over the past decades. However, the cancer burden was geographical heterogeneity, and cost-effective measures were still required to decline the burden caused by gastrointestinal cancers.

Suicide attempt-related emergency department visits among adolescents: a nationwide population-based study in Korea, 2016-2019.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of adolescent suicide in Korea is increasing; however, nationwide data regarding short-term prediction of suicide attempts (SAs) is still limited. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the incidence of SA-related annual emergency department (ED) visits among adolescents in Korea from 2016 to 2019 and to summarize the corresponding demographic and clinical characteristics based on the dispositions of SA-related ED visits. METHODS: Most referral hospitals provide relevant essential ED information to the National Emergency Medical Center through the National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS). We analyzed NEDIS data on adolescent visits (aged < 20 years) for a 4-year period from 2016 to 2019. Patients were classified into the discharge and hospitalization groups for comparison, and jointpoint regression analysis was used to identify the years in which there was a change in annual percentage change (APC) in age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of SA-related ED visits. The characteristics of patients in the discharge group and hospitalization group subgroups were also compared. RESULTS: The APC in the incidence rate of SA-related ED visits in the 4-year study period revealed a 35.61% increase. The incidence rate increase was higher among females (APC: 46.26%) than among males (APC: 17.95%). Moreover, the incidence rate increased faster in mid-adolescence patients (APC: 51.12%) than in late-adolescence patients (APC: 26.98%). The proportion of poisoning as the SA method was 69.7% in the hospitalization group and 34.5% in the discharge group (p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that an increase in the number of SA-related ED visits among female and mid-adolescent patients represented the largest increase in SA-related ED visits from 2016 to 2019. Accordingly, evidence-based suicide prevention programs need to be customized based on sex and age, and further diversification of health care systems is needed through analysis of the characteristics of the dispositions of SA-related ED visits.