120-years of ecological monitoring data shows that the risk of overhunting is increased by environmental degradation for an isolated marine mammal population: The Baltic grey seal.

The Baltic Sea is home to a genetically isolated and morphologically distinct grey seal population. This population has been the subject of 120-years of careful documentation, from detailed records of bounty statistics to annual monitoring of health and abundance. It has also been exposed to a range of well-documented stressors, including hunting, pollution and climate change. To investigate the vulnerability of marine mammal populations to multiple stressors, data series relating to the Baltic grey seal population size, hunt and health were compiled, vital demographic rates were estimated, and a detailed population model was constructed. The Baltic grey seal population fell from approximately 90,000 to as few as 3000 individuals during the 1900s as the result of hunting and pollution. Subsequently, the population has recovered to approximately 55,000 individuals. Fertility levels for mature females have increased from 9% in the 1970s to 86% at present. The recovery of the population has led to demands for increased hunting, resulting in a sudden increase in annual quotas from a few hundred to 3550 in 2020. Simultaneously, environmental changes, such as warmer winters and reduced prey availability due to overfishing, are likely impacting fecundity and health. Future population development is projected for a range of hunting and environmental stress scenarios, illustrating how hunting, in combination with environmental degradation, can lead to population collapse. The current combined hunting quotas of all Baltic Nations caused a 10% population decline within three generations in 100% of simulations. To enable continued recovery of the population, combined annual quotas of less than 1900 are needed, although this quota should be re-evaluated annually as monitoring of population size and seal health continues. Sustainable management of long-lived slowly growing species requires an understanding of the drivers of population growth and the repercussions of management decisions over many decades. The case of the Baltic grey seal illustrates how long-term ecological time series are pivotal in establishing historical baselines in population abundance and demography to inform sustainable management.

Golden lion tamarin metapopulation dynamics five years after heavy losses to yellow fever.

The golden lion tamarin (GLT) is an Endangered primate endemic to Brazil's lowland Atlantic Forest. After centuries of deforestation and capture for the pet trade, only a few hundred individuals survived, all in isolated forest fragments 85 km from Rio de Janeiro city. Intensive conservation actions, including reintroduction of zoo-born tamarins, increased numbers to about 3700 in 2014. The most severe yellow fever epidemic/epizootic in Brazil in 80 years reduced two of the largest GLT populations by over 90%. Herein we report the results of a 2023 survey of GLTs designed to examine the dynamics of population recovery following yellow fever. Results indicate that populations hard hit by yellow fever are recovering due in part to immigration from adjacent forest fragments. No local extirpations were observed. About 4800 GLTs live in the survey area. This represents a 31% increase since the baseline survey completed in 2014. Two factors explain most of the increase: four large areas that had no GLTs or very low-density populations in 2014 are now at moderate density (three areas) or low density (one area), explaining 71% of overall increase since 2014. Increase in forest area within our survey area may explain up to 16% of the increase in GLT numbers since 2014. Results of computer simulations suggest that strengthening forest connectivity will facilitate metapopulation resilience in the face of mortality factors such as yellow fever.

Extinction risks and mitigation for a megaherbivore, the giraffe, in a human-influenced landscape under climate change.

Megaherbivores play "outsized" roles in ecosystem functioning but are vulnerable to human impacts such as overhunting, land-use changes, and climate extremes. However, such impacts-and combinations of these impacts-on population dynamics are rarely examined using empirical data. To guide effective conservation actions under increasing global-change pressures, we developed a socially structured individual-based model (IBM) using long-term demographic data from female giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) in a human-influenced landscape in northern Tanzania, the Tarangire Ecosystem. This unfenced system includes savanna habitats with a wide gradient of anthropogenic pressures, from national parks, a wildlife ranch and community conservation areas, to unprotected village lands. We then simulated and projected over 50 years how realistic environmental and land-use management changes might affect this metapopulation of female giraffes. Scenarios included: (1) anthropogenic land-use changes including roads and agricultural/urban expansion; (2) reduction or improvement in wildlife law enforcement measures; (3) changes in populations of natural predators and migratory alternative prey; and (4) increases in rainfall as predicted for East Africa. The factor causing the greatest risk of rapid declines in female giraffe abundance in our simulations was a reduction in law enforcement leading to more poaching. Other threats decreased abundances of giraffes, but improving law enforcement in both of the study area's protected areas mitigated these impacts: a 0.01 increase in giraffe survival probability from improved law enforcement mitigated a 25% rise in heavy rainfall events by increasing abundance 19%, and mitigated the expansion of towns and blockage of dispersal movements by increasing abundance 22%. Our IBM enabled us to further quantify fine-scale abundance changes among female giraffe social communities, revealing potential source-sink interactions within the metapopulation. This flexible methodology can be adapted to test additional ecological questions in this landscape, or to model populations of giraffes or other species in different ecosystems.

Mechanisms that can cause population decline under heavily skewed male-biased adult sex ratios.

While adult sex ratio (ASR) is a crucial component for population management, there is still a limited understanding of how its fluctuation affects population dynamics. To demonstrate mechanisms that hinder population growth under a biased ASR, we examined changes in reproductive success with ASR using a decapod crustacean exposed to female-selective harvesting. We examined the effect of ASR on the spawning success of females. A laboratory experiment showed that the number of eggs carried by females decreased as the proportion of males in the mating groups increased. Although the same result was not observed in data collected over 25 years in the wild, the negative effect of ASR was suggested when success in carrying eggs was considered as a spawning success. These results indicate that a surplus of males results in females failing to carry eggs, probably due to sexual coercion, and the negative effect of ASR can be detected at the population level only when the bias increases because failure in spawning success occurs in part of population. We experimentally examined how male-biased sex ratios affected the maintenance of genetic diversity in a population. The diversity of paternity in a clutch increased with the number of candidate fathers. However, over 50% of a clutch was fertilised by a single male regardless of the sex ratio, and the degree of diversity was less than half of the highest diversity expected in each mating group. We also experimentally examined the mating ability of males during the breeding season. The experiment showed that multiple mating by males could not compensate for the risk that their genotypes would be lost when multiple males competed for one female. These results suggest that a male-biased ASR could trigger a decline of genetic diversity in a population. We show that ASR skewed by female-selective harvesting decreases reproductive success not only of males that have few mating opportunities but also of females. We discuss that we may still underestimate the significance of ASR on population persistence due to the difficulty of revealing the effect of ASR.

Raising offspring increases ageing: Differences in senescence among three populations of a long-lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin.

Actuarial senescence, the decline of survival with age, is well documented in the wild. Rates of senescence vary widely between taxa, to some extent also between sexes, with the fastest life histories showing the highest rates of senescence. Few studies have investigated differences in senescence among populations of the same species, although such variation is expected from population-level differences in environmental conditions, leading to differences in vital rates and thus life histories. We predict that, within species, populations differing in productivity (suggesting different paces of life) should experience different rates of senescence, but with little or no sexual difference in senescence within populations of monogamous, monomorphic species where the sexes share breeding duties. We compared rates of actuarial senescence among three contrasting populations of the Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica. The dataset comprised 31 years (1990-2020) of parallel capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding colonies, Isle of May (North Sea), Røst (Norwegian Sea) and Hornøya (Barents Sea), showing contrasting productivities (i.e. annual breeding success) and population trends. We used time elapsed since first capture as a proxy for bird age, and productivity and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (wNAO) as proxies for the environmental conditions experienced by the populations within and outside the breeding season, respectively. In accordance with our predictions, we found that senescence rates differed among the study populations, with no evidence for sexual differences. There was no evidence for an effect of wNAO, but the population with the lowest productivity, Røst, showed the lowest rate of senescence. As a consequence, the negative effect of senescence on the population growth rate (λ) was up to 3-5 times smaller on Røst (Δλ = -0.009) than on the two other colonies. Our findings suggest that environmentally induced differences in senescence rates among populations of a species should be accounted for when predicting effects of climate variation and change on species persistence. There is thus a need for more detailed information on how both actuarial and reproductive senescence influence vital rates of populations of the same species, calling for large-scale comparative studies.

EolPop, a R-shiny tool for quantifying the demographic impact of species exposed to fatalities: Application to bird collisions with wind turbines.

Quantifying the demographic impact of anthropogenic fatalities on animal populations is a key component of wildlife conservation. However, such quantification remains rare in environmental impact assessments (EIA) of large-infrastructure projects, partly because of the complexity of implementing demographic models. Providing user-friendly demographic tools is thus an important step to fill this gap. We developed an application called EolPop to run demographic simulations and assess population-level impacts of fatalities. This tool, freely available online, is easy to use and requires minimal input data from the user. As an output, it provides an estimate, with associated uncertainty, of the relative deficit in population size at a given time horizon. Because this impact metric is relative to a baseline scenario without fatalities, it is robust to uncertainties. We showcase the tool using examples on two species that are affected by collisions with wind turbines: Lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni) and Eurasian skylark (Alauda arvensis). After 30 years, the kestrel's population is expected to suffer a deficit of ca. 48%. In contrast, the impact on skylarks, which are already declining in France, is estimated to be fairly low (ca. 7%). EolPop aims at providing a robust quantification of the relative impact of fatalities. This tool was originally built for windfarm EIA, with a focus on birds, but it can be used to assess the demographic consequences of any type of fatalities on any species.

Harvesting can stabilise population fluctuations and buffer the impacts of extreme climatic events.

Harvesting can magnify the destabilising effects of environmental perturbations on population dynamics and, thereby, increase extinction risk. However, population-dynamic theory predicts that impacts of harvesting depend on the type and strength of density-dependent regulation. Here, we used logistic population growth models and an empirical reindeer case study to show that low to moderate harvesting can actually buffer populations against environmental perturbations. This occurs because of density-dependent environmental stochasticity, where negative environmental impacts on vital rates are amplified at high population density due to intra-specific resource competition. Simulations from our population models show that even low levels of harvesting may prevent overabundance, thereby dampening population fluctuations and reducing the risk of population collapse and quasi-extinction following environmental perturbations. Thus, depending on the species' life history and the strength of density-dependent environmental drivers, low to moderate harvesting can improve population resistance to increased climate variability and extreme weather expected under global warming.

Female reproductive skew exacerbates the extinction risk from poaching in the eastern black rhino.

Variation in individual demographic rates can have large consequences for populations. Female reproductive skew is an example of structured demographic heterogeneity where females have intrinsic qualities that make them more or less likely to breed. The consequences of reproductive skew for population dynamics are poorly understood in non-cooperatively breeding mammals, especially when coupled with other drivers such as poaching. We address this knowledge gap with population viability analyses using an age-specific, female-only, individual-based, stochastic population model built with long-term data for three Kenyan populations of the Critically Endangered eastern black rhino (Diceros bicornis michaeli). There was substantial reproductive skew, with a high proportion of females not breeding or doing so at very low rates. This had a large impact on the projected population growth rate for the smaller population on Ol Jogi. Moreover, including female reproductive skew exacerbates the effects of poaching, increasing the probability of extinction by approximately 70% under a simulated poaching pressure of 5% offtake per year. Tackling the effects of reproductive skew depends on whether it is mediated by habitat or social factors, with potential strategies including habitat and biological management respectively. Investigating and tackling reproductive skew in other species requires long-term, individual-level data collection.

Integrating advances in population and evolutionary ecology with conservation strategy through long-term studies of red-billed choughs.

Conceptual and methodological advances in population and evolutionary ecology are often pursued with the ambition that they will help identify demographic, ecological and genetic constraints on population growth rate (λ), and ultimately facilitate evidence-based conservation. However, such advances are often decoupled from conservation practice, impeding translation of scientific understanding into effective conservation and of conservation-motivated research into wider conceptual understanding. We summarise key outcomes from long-term studies of a red-billed chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax population of conservation concern, where we proactively aimed to achieve the dual and interacting objectives of advancing population and evolutionary ecology and advancing effective conservation. Estimation of means, variances and covariances in key vital rates from individual-based demographic data identified temporal and spatial variation in subadult survival as key constraints on λ, and simultaneously provided new insights into how vital rates can vary as functions of demographic structure, natal conditions and parental life history. Targeted analyses showed that first-year survival increased with prey abundance, implying that food limitation may constrain λ. First-year survival then decreased dramatically, threatening population viability and prompting emergency supplementary feeding interventions. Detailed evaluations suggested that the interventions successfully increased first-year survival in some years and additionally increased adult survival and successful reproduction, thereby feeding back to inform intervention refinements and understanding of complex ecological constraints on λ. Genetic analyses revealed novel evidence of expression of a lethal recessive allele, and demonstrated how critically small effective population size can arise, thereby increasing inbreeding and loss of genetic variation. Population viability analyses parameterised with all available demographic and genetic data showed how ecological and genetic constraints can interact to limit population viability, and identified ecological management as of primacy over genetic management to ensure short-term persistence of the focal population. This case study demonstrates a full iteration through the sequence of primary science, evidence-based intervention, quantitative evaluation and feedback that is advocated in conservation science but still infrequently achieved. It thereby illustrates how pure science advances informed conservation actions to ensure the (short-term) stability of the target population, and how conservation-motivated analyses fed back to advance fundamental understanding of population processes.

Quantifying the conservation status and abundance trends of wildlife communities with detection-nondetection data.

Effective conservation requires understanding species' abundance patterns and demographic rates across space and time. Ideally, such knowledge should be available for whole communities because variation in species' dynamics can elucidate factors leading to biodiversity losses. However, collecting data to simultaneously estimate abundance and demographic rates of communities of species is often prohibitively time intensive and expensive. We developed a multispecies dynamic N-occupancy model to estimate unbiased, community-wide relative abundance and demographic rates. In this model, detection-nondetection data (e.g., repeated presence-absence surveys) are used to estimate species- and community-level parameters and the effects of environmental factors. To validate our model, we conducted a simulation study to determine how and when such an approach can be valuable and found that our multispecies model outperformed comparable single-species models in estimating abundance and demographic rates in many cases. Using data from a network of camera traps across tropical equatorial Africa, we then used our model to evaluate the statuses and trends of a forest-dwelling antelope community. We estimated relative abundance, rates of recruitment (i.e., reproduction and immigration), and apparent survival probabilities for each species' local population. The antelope community was fairly stable (although 17% of populations [species-park combinations] declined over the study period). Variation in apparent survival was linked more closely to differences among national parks than to individual species' life histories. The multispecies dynamic N-occupancy model requires only detection-nondetection data to evaluate the population dynamics of multiple sympatric species and can thus be a valuable tool for examining the reasons behind recent biodiversity loss.

La conservación efectiva requiere del entendimiento de los patrones de abundancia de las especies a lo largo del tiempo y el espacio. Sería ideal que dicho conocimiento estuviera disponible para todas las comunidades ya que la variación en la dinámica de las especies puede esclarecer los factores que llevan a la pérdida de la biodiversidad. Sin embargo, la recolección de información para estimar simultáneamente las tasas demográficas y de abundancia de las comunidades de especies con frecuencia es cara y consume tiempo. Desarrollamos un modelo multiespecies dinámico de ocupación-N para estimar la tasa demográfica y de abundancia relativas sin sesgos y en toda la comunidad. En este modelo usamos información de detección-no detección (p. ej.: censos repetidos de presencia-ausencia) para estimar los parámetros a nivel comunitario y de especie y los efectos de los factores ambientales. Para validar nuestro modelo, realizamos un estudio de simulación para determinar cómo y cuándo dicha estrategia puede ser valiosa y descubrimos que nuestro modelo multiespecies superó a los modelos comparables de una sola especie en la estimación de las tasas demográficas y de abundancia en muchos casos. Usamos nuestro modelo con datos de una red de cámaras trampa ubicadas a lo largo de África ecuatorial para evaluar los estados y tendencias de una comunidad forestal de antílopes. Estimamos la abundancia relativa, tasa de reclutamiento (es decir, reproducción e inmigración) y las probabilidades de supervivencia aparente para la población local de cada especie. La comunidad de antílopes fue bastante estable (aunque el 17% de las poblaciones [combinaciones especie-parque] declinaron durante el periodo de estudio). La variación en la supervivencia aparente estuvo vinculada con mayor cercanía a las diferencias entre los parques nacionales que a la historia de vida de cada especie individual. El modelo multiespecies dinámico de ocupación-N requiere solamente información de detección-no detección para evaluar las dinámicas poblacionales de muchas especies simpátricas y por lo tanto puede ser una herramienta valiosa para examinar las razones detrás de la pérdida reciente de la biodiversidad.

A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world.

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3-8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.

La mortalidad de la fauna causada por humanos es una amenaza continua para la biodiversidad. El análisis del impacto a nivel poblacional de la captura pesquera incidental y otras causas humanas de la mortalidad de la fauna comúnmente ha dependido de métodos determinísticos. Sin embargo, las declinaciones poblacionales con frecuencia se aceleran por los factores estocásticos que no son considerados en dichos métodos convencionales. A partir de la ecuación de extirpación biológica potencial (EBP) de extensa aplicación diseñamos una nueva estrategia de modelación poblacional para estimar los límites sustentables de la mortalidad causada por humanos y la aplicamos en un estudio de caso de los delfines nariz de botella afectados por la captura en una pesquería australiana de arrastre demersal. Nuestra estrategia, denominada mortalidad antropogénica sustentable en ambientes estocásticos (MASAM) incorpora la estocasticidad ambiental y demográfica, incluyendo la dependencia que tienen las crías por sus madres. El límite MASAM es el número máximo de individuos que pueden extirparse sin causar un crecimiento poblacional estocástico negativo. Calculamos un EBP de 16.3 delfines por año con base en la mejor estimación de abundancia disponible. Como contraste, el modelo MASAM indicó que sólo podían extirparse entre 2.3 y 8.0 delfines anualmente sin ocasionar una declinación poblacional en un ambiente estocástico. Estos resultados sugieren que las tasas reportadas de captura incidental no son sustentables a largo plazo, a menos que las tasas reproductivas sean sistemáticamente más altas que el promedio. La diferencia entre el cálculo determinístico del EBP y los límites de MASAM mostró que los enfoques determinísticos pueden subestimar el verdadero impacto de la mortalidad de la fauna causada por humanos. Lo anterior resalta la importancia de integrar la estocasticidad al evaluar el impacto de la captura incidental y otras causas humanas de la mortalidad como la caza, las medidas letales de control y las colisiones con turbinas de viento. Aunque el análisis de viabilidad poblacional (AVP) se ha utilizado para evaluar el impacto de la mortalidad causada por humanos, MASAM representa un marco novedoso de AVP que incorpora la estocasticidad para estimar los niveles aceptables de mortalidad causada por humanos. Este enfoque ofrece una adición estocástica de aplicación generalizada para las herramientas demográficas usadas para evaluar el impacto de la mortalidad causada por humanos sobre la fauna.

A deepening understanding of animal culture suggests lessons for conservation.

A key goal of conservation is to protect biodiversity by supporting the long-term persistence of viable, natural populations of wild species. Conservation practice has long been guided by genetic, ecological and demographic indicators of risk. Emerging evidence of animal culture across diverse taxa and its role as a driver of evolutionary diversification, population structure and demographic processes may be essential for augmenting these conventional conservation approaches and decision-making. Animal culture was the focus of a ground-breaking resolution under the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS), an international treaty operating under the UN Environment Programme. Here, we synthesize existing evidence to demonstrate how social learning and animal culture interact with processes important to conservation management. Specifically, we explore how social learning might influence population viability and be an important resource in response to anthropogenic change, and provide examples of how it can result in phenotypically distinct units with different, socially learnt behavioural strategies. While identifying culture and social learning can be challenging, indirect identification and parsimonious inferences may be informative. Finally, we identify relevant methodologies and provide a framework for viewing behavioural data through a cultural lens which might provide new insights for conservation management.

Reducing persecution is more effective for restoring large carnivores than restoring their prey.

Large carnivores are currently disappearing from many world regions because of habitat loss, prey depletion, and persecution. Ensuring large carnivore persistence requires safeguarding and sometimes facilitating the expansion of their populations. Understanding which conservation strategies, such as reducing persecution or restoring prey, are most effective to help carnivores to reclaim their former ranges is therefore important. Here, we systematically explored such alternative strategies for the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in the Caucasus. We combined a rule-based habitat suitability map and a spatially explicit leopard population model to identify potential leopard subpopulations (i.e., breeding patches), and to test the effect of different levels of persecution reduction and prey restoration on leopard population viability across the entire Caucasus ecoregion and northern Iran (about 737,000 km2 ). We identified substantial areas of potentially suitable leopard habitat (~120,000 km2 ), most of which is currently unoccupied. Our model revealed that leopards could potentially recolonize these patches and increase to a population of >1,000 individuals in 100 yr, but only in scenarios of medium to high persecution reduction and prey restoration. Overall, reducing persecution had a more pronounced effect on leopard metapopulation viability than prey restoration: Without conservation strategies to reduce persecution, leopards went extinct from the Caucasus in all scenarios tested. Our study highlights the importance of persecution reduction in small populations, which should hence be prioritized when resources for conservation are limited. We show how individual-based, spatially explicit metapopulation models can help in quantifying the recolonization potential of large carnivores in unoccupied habitat, designing adequate conservation strategies to foster such recolonizations, and anticipating the long-term prospects of carnivore populations under alternative scenarios. Our study also outlines how data scarcity, which is typical for threatened range-expanding species, can be overcome with a rule-based habitat map. For Persian leopards, our projections clearly suggest that there is a large potential for a viable metapopulation in the Caucasus, but only if major conservation actions are taken towards reducing persecution and restoring prey.

Interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird.

Together climate and land-use change play a crucial role in determining species distribution and abundance, but measuring the simultaneous impacts of these processes on current and future population trajectories is challenging due to time lags, interactive effects and data limitations. Most approaches that relate multiple global change drivers to population changes have been based on occurrence or count data alone. We leveraged three long-term (1995-2019) datasets to develop a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA) to project future survival and reproductive success for common loons Gavia immer in northern Wisconsin, USA, by explicitly linking vital rates to changes in climate and land use. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a broad-scale climate index, immediately preceding the breeding season and annual changes in developed land cover within breeding areas both had strongly negative influences on adult survival. Local summer rainfall was negatively related to fecundity, though this relationship was mediated by a lagged interaction with the winter NAO, suggesting a compensatory population-level response to climate variability. We compared population viability under 12 future scenarios of annual land-use change, precipitation and NAO conditions. Under all scenarios, the loon population was expected to decline, yet the steepest declines were projected under positive NAO trends, as anticipated with ongoing climate change. Thus, loons breeding in the northern United States are likely to remain affected by climatic processes occurring thousands of miles away in the North Atlantic during the non-breeding period of the annual cycle. Our results reveal that climate and land-use changes are differentially contributing to loon population declines along the southern edge of their breeding range and will continue to do so despite natural compensatory responses. We also demonstrate that concurrent analysis of multiple data types facilitates deeper understanding of the ecological implications of anthropogenic-induced change occurring at multiple spatial scales. Our modelling approach can be used to project demographic responses of populations to varying environmental conditions while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, an increasingly pressing need in the face of unprecedented global change.

Effects of learning and adaptation on population viability.

Cultural adaptation is one means by which conservationists may help populations adapt to threats. A learned behavior may protect an individual from a threat, and the behavior can be transmitted horizontally (within generations) and vertically (between generations), rapidly conferring population-level protection. Although possible in theory, it remains unclear whether such manipulations work in a conservation setting; what conditions are required for them to work; and how they might affect the evolutionary process. We examined models in which a population can adapt through both genetic and cultural mechanisms. Our work was motivated by the invasion of highly toxic cane toads (Rhinella marina) across northern Australia and the resultant declines of endangered northern quolls (Dasyurus hallucatus), which attack and are fatally poisoned by the toxic toads. We examined whether a novel management strategy in which wild quolls are trained to avoid toads can reduce extinction probability. We used a simulation model tailored to quoll life history. Within simulations, individuals were trained and a continuous evolving trait determined innate tendency to attack toads. We applied this model in a population viability setting. The strategy reduced extinction probability only when heritability of innate aversion was low (<20%) and when trained mothers trained >70% of their young to avoid toads. When these conditions were met, genetic adaptation was slower, but rapid cultural adaptation kept the population extant while genetic adaptation was completed. To gain insight into the evolutionary dynamics (in which we saw a transitory peak in cultural adaptation over time), we also developed a simple analytical model of evolutionary dynamics. This model showed that the strength of natural selection declined as the cultural transmission rate increased and that adaptation proceeded only when the rate of cultural transmission was below a critical value determined by the relative levels of protection conferred by genetic versus cultural mechanisms. Together, our models showed that cultural adaptation can play a powerful role in preventing extinction, but that rates of cultural transmission need to be high for this to occur.

La adaptación cultural es un medio mediante el cual los conservacionistas pueden ayudar a las poblaciones a adaptarse a las amenazas. Un comportamiento aprendido puede proteger a un individuo de las amenazas y este comportamiento puede transmitirse horizontalmente (dentro de las generaciones) y verticalmente (entre generaciones), lo que otorga rápidamente una protección a nivel poblacional. Aunque esto es posible en teoría, aún no está claro si dichas manipulaciones funcionan dentro de un escenario de conservación; cuáles son las condiciones requeridas para que funcionen las manipulaciones; y cómo pueden afectar el proceso evolutivo. Examinamos modelos en los cuales una población puede adaptarse tanto con mecanismos genéticos como culturales. Nuestro trabajo estuvo motivado por la invasión de sapos altamente tóxicos (Rhinella marina) en todo el norte de Australia y las declinaciones resultantes de cuoles norteños (Dasyurus hallucatus), los cuales atacan y mueren envenenados por los sapos tóxicos. Analizamos si una estrategia de manejo novedoso en la cual los cuoles silvestres son entrenados para evitar a los sapos puede reducir la probabilidad de extinción. Usamos un modelo de simulación diseñado alrededor de la historia de vida de los cuoles. Dentro de las simulaciones, se entrenó a cuoles individuales y una característica en continua evolución determinó la tendencia innata para atacar a los sapos. Aplicamos este modelo en un escenario de viabilidad poblacional. La estrategia redujo la probabilidad de extinción sólo cuando la heredabilidad de la aversión innata fue baja (<20%) y cuando las madres entrenadas entrenaron a más del 70% de sus crías para evitar a los sapos. Cuando ambas condiciones fueron cumplidas, la adaptación genética fue más lenta pero la adaptación cultural rápida mantuvo a la población vigente mientras se completaba la adaptación genética. Para ganar conocimiento sobre las dinámicas evolutivas (en las cuales vimos un pico transitorio en la adaptación cultural a lo largo del tiempo) también desarrollamos un modelo analítico simple de las dinámicas evolutivas. Este modelo mostró que la fuerza de la selección natural declinó conforme incrementó la tasa de transmisión cultural y que la adaptación procedió solamente cuando la tasa de transmisión cultural estuvo por debajo de un valor crítico determinado por los niveles relativos de protección otorgados por los mecanismos genéticos contra los mecanismos evolutivos. En conjunto, nuestros modelos mostraron que la adaptación cultural puede jugar un papel importante en la prevención de la extinción, pero las tasas de transmisión cultural necesitan ser altas para que esto ocurra.

Quantifying the impact of vegetation-based metrics on species persistence when choosing offsets for habitat destruction.

Developers are often required by law to offset environmental impacts through targeted conservation actions. Most offset policies specify metrics for calculating offset requirements, usually by assessing vegetation condition. Despite widespread use, there is little evidence to support the effectiveness of vegetation-based metrics for ensuring biodiversity persistence. We compared long-term impacts of biodiversity offsetting based on area only; vegetation condition only; area × habitat suitability; and condition × habitat suitability in development and restoration simulations for the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia. We simulated development and subsequent offsetting through restoration within a virtual landscape, linking simulations to population viability models for 3 species. Habitat gains did not ensure species persistence. No net loss was achieved when performance of offsetting was assessed in terms of amount of habitat restored, but not when outcomes were assessed in terms of persistence. Maintenance of persistence occurred more often when impacts were avoided, giving further support to better enforce the avoidance stage of the mitigation hierarchy. When development affected areas of high habitat quality for species, persistence could not be guaranteed. Therefore, species must be more explicitly accounted for in offsets, rather than just vegetation or habitat alone. Declines due to a failure to account directly for species population dynamics and connectivity overshadowed the benefits delivered by producing large areas of high-quality habitat. Our modeling framework showed that the benefits delivered by offsets are species specific and that simple vegetation-based metrics can give misguided impressions on how well biodiversity offsets achieve no net loss.

Cuantificación del Impacto de las Medidas Basadas en la Vegetación sobre la Persistencia de las Especies cuando se Eligen las Compensaciones por la Destrucción del Hábitat Resumen Con frecuencia se requiere por ley que los desarrolladores compensen los impactos ambientales por medio de acciones de conservación. La mayoría de las políticas de compensación especifican medidas para calcular los requerimientos de cada compensación, generalmente mediante la evaluación de las condiciones de la vegetación. A pesar del uso extenso de estas medidas basadas en la vegetación, existe muy poca evidencia que respalde su efectividad para asegurar la persistencia de la biodiversidad. Comparamos los impactos a largo plazo de las compensaciones de biodiversidad basadas solamente en el área; solamente en la condición de la vegetación; la idoneidad del área x hábitat; y la idoneidad condición x hábitat en las simulaciones de desarrollo y restauración para la Región Hunter de Nueva Gales del Sur, Australia. Simulamos el desarrollo y las compensaciones subsecuentes mediante la restauración dentro de un paisaje virtual, conectando las simulaciones con los modelos de viabilidad poblacional para tres especies. Las ganancias del hábitat no aseguraron la persistencia de las especies. No hubo pérdida neta cuando el desempeño de las compensaciones se evaluó en relación con la persistencia. El mantenimiento de la persistencia ocurrió más seguido cuando se evitaron los impactos, lo que proporciona un mayor respaldo para mejorar la aplicación de la fase de prevención de la jerarquía de mitigación. Cuando el desarrollo afectó a las áreas con una alta calidad de hábitat para las especies, no se pudo garantizar la persistencia. Por lo tanto, las especies deben considerarse más explícitamente en las compensaciones, en lugar de sólo considerar a la vegetación o al hábitat. Las declinaciones causadas por la falta de consideración directa de las dinámicas poblacionales de las especies y de la conectividad opacaron los beneficios producidos por las grandes áreas de hábitat de alta calidad. Nuestro marco de trabajo para el modelado demostró que los beneficios producidos por las compensaciones son específicos para cada especie y que las medidas simples basadas en la vegetación pueden brindar impresiones mal informadas sobre qué tanto influyen las compensaciones de biodiversidad en la no pérdida neta.

Costs of male infanticide for female capuchins: When does an adaptive male reproductive strategy become costly for females and detrimental to population viability?

OBJECTIVES: Infanticide in white-faced capuchins (Cebus capucinus imitator) typically occurs in association with alpha male replacements (AMRs). Although infanticide is likely adaptive for males, it imposes costs on females that are difficult to quantify without long-term demographic data. Here we investigate effects of AMRs and infanticide on female reproductive success and how these costs affect capuchin groups. We investigate (1) effects of AMR frequency on the production of surviving infants; (2) energetic and (3) temporal "opportunity costs" of infant loss; and (4) how AMR frequency impacts capuchin group sizes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We censused six groups (7-33 years/group, 74 adult females). We modeled surviving infant production in relation to AMR. We estimated a female's energy requirements for lost infants and the temporal cost relative to the median reproductive window. We simulated how varying AMR rates would affect future capuchin group sizes. RESULTS: Females exposed to more frequent AMR tended to produce fewer surviving offspring. We estimate the average lost infant requires approximately 33% additional energy intake for its mother and represents 10% of the average reproductive opportunity window available to females. Simulated populations remain viable at the observed rate of AMR occurrence but decrease in size at even slightly higher rates. DISCUSSION: While infanticide is adaptive for males, for females it affects lifetime reproductive success and imposes energetic and opportunity costs. Although capuchin populations have evolved with AMRs and infanticide, small increases in AMR frequency may lead to population decline/extinction. Infanticide likely plays a large role in population maintenance for capuchins.

Assessing Ecological and Social Dimensions of Success in a Community-based Sustainable Harvest Program.

Community-based conservation and resource management (CBCRM) programs often incorporate the dual goals of poverty alleviation and conservation. However, robust assessments of CBCRM program outcomes are relatively scarce. This study uses a multidisciplinary, systems approach to assess the ecological and social dimensions of success of an internationally acclaimed CBCRM program. This program, located in one of the largest protected areas in the Peruvian Amazon (Pacaya-Samiria National Reserve), strives for the sustainable harvest and trade of a turtle species (Podocnemis unifilis). We used mixed methods analysis, including interviews and population viability modeling, to understand three elements: how local perceptions of changes in the managed population compare to changes inferred by ecological analyses, the indicators stakeholders use to measure success, and the barriers to long-term program success and social-ecological system sustainability. We find that stakeholders perceive a growth trend in the managed turtle population, but this perception may diverge from our ecological understanding of the system under current management. Population viability analyses with a 1:1 sex ratio suggested population size will decline under two of three management scenarios (different degrees of harvest). Yet this and similar studies are plagued by a lack of species- and site-specific population parameters that could improve understanding of the system. Significant vulnerabilities exist for system sustainability, notably the recent decrease in foreign demand for the traded resource. Identifying a sustainable species-specific harvest rate, developing locally-grounded ecological and social indicators, and focusing on data-driven adaptive management will facilitate the identification of key leverage points for future management interventions.

Recovered after an extreme bottleneck and saved by ex situ management: Lessons from the Alagoas curassow (Pauxi mitu [Linnaeus, 1766]; Aves, Galliformes, Cracidae).

A pivotal debate on biodiversity conservation is whether the scarce budgets must be invested in critically endangered taxa or in those with higher chances to survive due to larger population sizes. Addressing the fate of extremely bottlenecked taxa is an ideal way to test this idea, but empirical cases are surprisingly limited. The reintroduction of the extinct-in-the-wild Alagoas curassow (Pauxi mitu) by Brazilian scientists in September 2019 added to the two other known cases of survival to bottlenecks of only two or three individuals. We exploit the reasons why this species has survived, and we report how investments to rescue the Alagoas curassow resulted in the protection of many other taxa, suggesting that in the face of the dramatic number of extinctions expected for the Anthropocene, integration must prevail over a choice.

Long-term shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the Great Barrier Reef.

The age or size structure of a population has a marked influence on its demography and reproductive capacity. While declines in coral cover are well documented, concomitant shifts in the size-frequency distribution of coral colonies are rarely measured at large spatial scales. Here, we document major shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the 2300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef relative to historical baselines (1995/1996). Coral colony abundances on reef crests and slopes have declined sharply across all colony size classes and in all coral taxa compared to historical baselines. Declines were particularly pronounced in the northern and central regions of the Great Barrier Reef, following mass coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017. The relative abundances of large colonies remained relatively stable, but this apparent stability masks steep declines in absolute abundance. The potential for recovery of older fecund corals is uncertain given the increasing frequency and intensity of disturbance events. The systematic decline in smaller colonies across regions, habitats and taxa, suggests that a decline in recruitment has further eroded the recovery potential and resilience of coral populations.