Water striders are impervious to raindrop collision forces and submerged by collapsing craters.

Water striders are abundant in areas with high humidity and rainfall. Raindrops can weigh more than 40 times the adult water strider and some pelagic species spend their entire lives at sea, never contacting ground. Until now, researchers have not systematically investigated the survival of water striders when impacted by raindrops. In this experimental study, we use high-speed videography to film drop impacts on water striders. Drops force the insects subsurface upon direct contact. As the ensuing crater rebounds upward, the water strider is propelled airborne by a Worthington jet, herein called the first jet. We show the water strider's locomotive responses, low density, resistance to wetting when briefly submerged, and ability to regain a super-surface rest state, rendering it impervious to the initial impact. When pulled subsurface during a second crater formation caused by the collapsing first jet, water striders face the possibility of ejection above the surface or submersion below the surface, a fate determined by their position in the second crater. We identify a critical crater collapse acceleration threshold ∼ 5.7 gravities for the collapsing second crater which determines the ejection and submersion of passive water striders. Entrapment by submersion makes the water strider poised to penetrate the air-water interface from below, which appears impossible without the aid of a plastron and proper locomotive techniques. Our study is likely the first to consider second crater dynamics and our results translate to the submersion dynamics of other passively floating particles such as millimetric microplastics atop the world's oceans.

Global scale assessment of urban precipitation anomalies.

Urbanization has accelerated dramatically across the world over the past decades. Urban influence on surface temperatures is now being considered as a correction term in climatological datasets. Although prior research has investigated urban influences on precipitation for specific cities or selected thunderstorm cases, a comprehensive examination of urban precipitation anomalies on a global scale remains limited. This research is a global analysis of urban precipitation anomalies for over one thousand cities worldwide. We find that more than 60% of the global cities and their downwind regions are receiving more precipitation than the surrounding rural areas. Moreover, the magnitude of these urban wet islands has nearly doubled in the past 20 y. Urban precipitation anomalies exhibit variations across different continents and climates, with cities in Africa, for example, exhibiting the largest urban annual and extreme precipitation anomalies. Cities are more prone to substantial urban precipitation anomalies under warm and humid climates compared to cold and dry climates. Cities with larger populations, pronounced urban heat island effects, and higher aerosol loads also show noticeable precipitation enhancements. This research maps global urban rainfall hotspots, establishing a foundation for the consideration of urban rainfall corrections in climatology datasets. This advancement holds promise for projecting extreme precipitation and fostering the development of more resilient cities in the future.

Eccentricity-paced geomagnetic field and monsoon rainfall variations over the last 870 kyr.

Whether there are links between geomagnetic field and Earth's orbital parameters remains unclear. Synchronous reconstructions of parallel long-term quantitative geomagnetic field and climate change records are rare. Here, we present 10Be-derived changes of both geomagnetic field and Asian monsoon (AM) rainfall over the last 870 kyr from the Xifeng loess-paleosol sequence on the central Chinese Loess Plateau. The 10BeGM flux (a proxy for geomagnetic field-induced 10Be production rate) reveals 13 consecutive geomagnetic excursions in the Brunhes chron, which are synchronized with the global records, providing key time markers for Chinese loess-paleosol sequences. The 10Be-derived rainfall exhibits distinct ~100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles, and superimposed precessional (~23 kyr) cycles that match with those in Chinese speleothem δ18O record. We find that changes in the geomagnetic field and AM rainfall share a common ~100 kyr cyclicity, implying a likely eccentricity modulation of both the geomagnetic field and climate.

A weakened AMOC may prolong greenhouse gas-induced Mediterranean drying even with significant and rapid climate change mitigation.

The Mediterranean region has been identified as a climate hot spot, with models projecting a robust warming and rainfall decline in response to increasing greenhouse gases. The projected rainfall decline would have impacts on agriculture and water resources. Can such changes be reversed with significant reductions in greenhouse gases? To explore this, we examine large ensembles of a high-resolution climate model with various future radiative forcing scenarios, including a scenario with substantial reductions in greenhouse gas concentrations beginning in the mid-21st century. In response to greenhouse gas reductions, the Mediterranean summer rainfall decline is reversed, but the winter rainfall decline continues. This continued winter rainfall decline results from a persistent atmospheric anticyclone over the western Mediterranean. Using additional numerical experiments, we show that the anticyclone and continued winter rainfall decline are attributable to greenhouse gas-induced weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that continues throughout the 21st century. The persistently weak AMOC, in concert with greenhouse gas reductions, leads to rapid cooling and sea ice growth in the subpolar North Atlantic. This cooling leads to a strong cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and, via atmospheric teleconnections, to the anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Mediterranean. The failure to reverse the winter rainfall decline, despite substantial climate change mitigation, is an example of a "surprise" in the climate system. In this case, a persistent AMOC change unexpectedly impedes the reversibility of Mediterranean climate change. Such surprises could complicate pathways toward full climate recovery.

"Late-stage" deforestation enhances storm trends in coastal West Africa.

Deforestation affects local and regional hydroclimate through changes in heating and moistening of the atmosphere. In the tropics, deforestation leads to warming, but its impact on rainfall is more complex, as it depends on spatial scale and synoptic forcing. Most studies have focused on Amazonia, highlighting that forest edges locally enhance convective rainfall, whereas rainfall decreases over drier, more extensive, deforested regions. Here, we examine Southern West Africa (SWA), an example of "late-stage" deforestation, ongoing since 1900 within a 300-km coastal belt. From three decades of satellite data, we demonstrate that the upward trend in convective activity is strongly modulated by deforestation patterns. The frequency of afternoon storms is enhanced over and downstream of deforested patches on length scales from 16 to 196 km, with greater increases for larger patches. The results are consistent with the triggering of storms by mesoscale circulations due to landscape heterogeneity. Near the coast, where sea breeze convection dominates the diurnal cycle, storm frequency has doubled in deforested areas, attributable to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast. These areas include fast-growing cities such as Freetown and Monrovia, where enhanced storm frequency coincides with high vulnerability to flash flooding. The proximity of the ocean likely explains why ongoing deforestation across SWA continues to increase storminess, as it favors the impact of mesoscale dynamics over moisture availability. The coastal location of deforestation in SWA is typical of many tropical deforestation hotspots, and the processes highlighted here are likely to be of wider global relevance.

Long-term rain exclusion in a Mediterranean forest: response of physiological and physico-chemical traits of Quercus pubescens across seasons.

With climate change, an aggravation in summer drought is expected in the Mediterranean region. To assess the impact of such a future scenario, we compared the response of Quercus pubescens, a drought-resistant deciduous oak species, to long-term amplified drought (AD) (partial rain exclusion in natura for 10 years) and natural drought (ND). We studied leaf physiological and physico-chemical trait responses to ND and AD over the seasonal cycle, with a focus on chemical traits including major groups of central (photosynthetic pigments and plastoquinones) and specialized (tocochromanols, phenolic compounds, and cuticular waxes) metabolites. Seasonality was the main driver of all leaf traits, including cuticular triterpenoids, which were highly concentrated in summer, suggesting their importance to cope with drought and thermal stress periods. Under AD, trees not only reduced CO2 assimilation (-42%) in summer and leaf concentrations of some phenolic compounds and photosynthetic pigments (carotenoids from the xanthophyll cycle) but also enhanced the levels of other photosynthetic pigments (chlorophylls, lutein, and neoxanthin) and plastochromanol-8, an antioxidant located in chloroplasts. Overall, the metabolomic adjustments across seasons and drought conditions reinforce the idea that Q. pubescens is highly resistant to drought although significant losses of antioxidant defenses and photoprotection were identified under AD.

Ecologic, Geoclimatic, and Genomic Factors Modulating Plague Epidemics in Primary Natural Focus, Brazil.

Plague is a deadly zoonosis that still poses a threat in many regions of the world. We combined epidemiologic, host, and vector surveillance data collected during 1961-1980 from the Araripe Plateau focus in northeastern Brazil with ecologic, geoclimatic, and Yersinia pestis genomic information to elucidate how these factors interplay in plague activity. We identified well-delimited plague hotspots showing elevated plague risk in low-altitude areas near the foothills of the plateau's concave sectors. Those locations exhibited distinct precipitation and vegetation coverage patterns compared with the surrounding areas. We noted a seasonal effect on plague activity, and human cases linearly correlated with precipitation and rodent and flea Y. pestis positivity rates. Genomic characterization of Y. pestis strains revealed a foundational strain capable of evolving into distinct genetic variants, each linked to temporally and spatially constrained plague outbreaks. These data could identify risk areas and improve surveillance in other plague foci within the Caatinga biome.

The influence of climate change on the sesame yield in North Gondar, North Ethiopia: Application Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) time series model.

Sesame is a major annual oil crop that is grown practically everywhere in tropical and subtropical Asia, as well as Africa, for its very nutritious and tasty seeds. Rising temperatures, droughts, floods, desertification, and weather all have a significant impact on agricultural production, particularly in developing countries like Ethiopia. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to examine the influence of climate change on the sesame yield in North Gondar, North Ethiopia, by using the autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) time series model. This study employed climate data from the Bahirdar Agrometeorological Center and secondary data on sesame production from the Ethiopian Statistical Service, spanning 36 years, from 1987 to 2023. Autoregressive Distributed LAG (ARDL) includes diagnostic tests for both short- and long-term autoregressive models. The results for the long-run and short-run elastic coefficients show a significant positive association between temperatures and sesame yield. Sesame yield and rainfall have a significant negative long-run and short-run relationship in North Gondar, North Ethiopia. ARDL results confirm that temperature and rainfall have significant effects on sesame productivity. Temperature had a considerable favorable effect on sesamen production, but rainfall had a negative effect in North Gondar, Ethiopia. Based on the evidence acquired from our study, we made several policy recommendations and suggestions to government officials, policymakers, new technologies, researchers, policy development planners, and other stakeholders in order to develop or implement new technology to halt its production and direct adaptation measures in light of the certainty of global warming and the characteristics of climate-dependent agricultural production.

Water limitation drives species loss in grassland communities after nitrogen addition and warming.

Nutrient addition, particularly nitrogen, often increases plant aboveground biomass but causes species loss. Asymmetric competition for light is frequently assumed to explain the biomass-driven species loss. However, it remains unclear whether other factors such as water can also play a role. Increased aboveground leaf area following nitrogen addition and warming may increase transpiration and cause water limitation, leading to a decline in diversity. To test this, we conducted field measurements in a grassland community exposed to nitrogen and water addition, and warming. We found that warming and/or nitrogen addition significantly increased aboveground biomass but reduced species richness. Water addition prevented species loss in either nitrogen-enriched or warmed treatments, while it partially mitigated species loss in the treatment exposed to increases in both temperature and nitrogen. These findings thus strongly suggest that water limitation can be an important driver of species loss as biomass increases after nitrogen addition and warming when soil moisture is limiting. This result is further supported by a meta-analysis of published studies across grasslands worldwide. Our study indicates that loss of grassland species richness in the future may be greatest under a scenario of increasing temperature and nitrogen deposition, but decreasing precipitation.

Will trees or grasses profit from changing rainfall regimes in savannas?

Increasing rainfall variability is widely expected under future climate change scenarios. How will savanna trees and grasses be affected by growing season dry spells and altered seasonality and how tightly coupled are tree-grass phenologies with rainfall? We measured tree and grass responses to growing season dry spells and dry season rainfall. We also tested whether the phenologies of 17 deciduous woody species and the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index of grasses were related to rainfall between 2019 and 2023. Tree and grass growth was significantly reduced during growing season dry spells. Tree growth was strongly related to growing season soil water potentials and limited to the wet season. Grasses can rapidly recover after growing season dry spells and grass evapotranspiration was significantly related to soil water potentials in both the wet and dry seasons. Tree leaf flushing commenced before the rainfall onset date with little subsequent leaf flushing. Grasses grew when moisture became available regardless of season. Our findings suggest that increased dry spell length and frequency in the growing season may slow down tree growth in some savannas, which together with longer growing seasons may allow grasses an advantage over C3 plants that are advantaged by rising CO2 levels.

Genetics of phenological development and implications for seed yield in lentil.

Understanding phenology, its genetics and agronomic consequences, is critical for crop adaptation. Here we aim to (i) characterize lentil response to photoperiod with a focus on five loci: the lentil ELF3 orthologue Sn, two loci linked to clusters of lentil FT orthologues, and two loci without candidates in chromosomes 2 and 5 (Experiment 1: 36 lines, short and long days in a phytotron), and (ii) establish the phenology-yield relationship (Experiment 2: 25 lines, 11 field environments). A vintage perspective, where we quantify time trends in phenotype over three decades of breeding, links both experiments. Yield increased linearly from older to newer varieties at 29 kg ha-1 year-1 or 1.5% year-1, correlated negatively with flowering time in both winter- and summer-rainfall regimes, and decoupled from biomass in favourable environments. Time to flowering shortened from older to newer varieties at -0.56% year-1 in the field, and -0.42% year-1 (short days) and -0.99% year-1 (long days) in the phytotron. Early-flowering lines of diverse origin carried multiple early alleles for the five loci, indicating that at least some of these loci affect phenology additively. Current germplasm primarily features the early-flowering haplotype for an FTb cluster region, hence the potential to increase phenological diversity with yield implications.

Eddy covariance measurements reveal a decreased carbon sequestration strength 2010-2022 in an African semiarid savanna.

Monitoring the changes of ecosystem functioning is pivotal for understanding the global carbon cycle. Despite its size and contribution to the global carbon cycle, Africa is largely understudied in regard to ongoing changes of its ecosystem functioning and their responses to climate change. One of the reasons is the lack of long-term in situ data. Here, we use eddy covariance to quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its components-gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) for years 2010-2022 for a Sahelian semiarid savanna to study trends in the fluxes. Significant negative trends were found for NEE (12.7 ± 2.8 g C m2 year-1), GPP (39.6 ± 7.9 g C m2 year-1), and Reco (32.2 ± 8.9 g C m2 year-1). We found that NEE decreased by 60% over the study period, and this decrease was mainly caused by stronger negative trends in rainy season GPP than in Reco. Additionally, we observed strong increasing trends in vapor pressure deficit, but no trends in rainfall or soil water content. Thus, a proposed explanation for the decrease in carbon sink strength is increasing atmospheric dryness. The warming climate in the Sahel, coupled with increasing evaporative demand, may thus lead to decreased GPP levels across this biome, and lowering its CO2 sequestration.

Seasonal and vertical patterns of water availability and variability determine plant reproductive phenology.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Changing precipitation regimes can influence terrestrial plants and ecosystems. However, plant phenological responses to changing precipitation temporal patterns and the underlying mechanisms are largely unclear. This study was conducted to explore the effects of seasonal precipitation redistribution on plant reproductive phenology in a temperate steppe. METHODS: A field experiment with control (C), advanced (AP) and delayed (DP) growing-season precipitation peaks, and the combination of AP and DP (ADP) were employed. Seven dominant plant species were selected and divided into two functional groups (early- vs. middle-flowering species, shallow- vs. deep-rooted species) to monitor reproductive phenology including budding, flowering, and fruiting date, as well as reproductive duration for four growing seasons from 2015 to 2017, and 2022. KEY RESULTS: The AP, but not DP treatment advanced the phenological (i.e., budding, flowering, and fruiting) dates and lengthened the reproductive duration across the 4 growing seasons and 7 monitored species. In addition, the phenological responses showed divergent patterns among different plant functional groups, which could be attributed to shifts in soil moisture and its variability in different months and soil depths. Moreover, species with lengthened reproductive duration increased phenological overlap with other species, which could have a negative impact on their dominance under the AP treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reveal that changing precipitation seasonality could have considerable impacts on plant phenology by affecting soil water availability and variability. Incorporating these two factors simultaneously in the phenology models will help us understand the response of plant phenology under intensified changing precipitation scenarios. In addition, the observations of decreased dominance for the species with lengthened reproductive duration suggest that changing reproductive phenology can have a potential to affect community composition in grasslands under global change.

Effects of leaf silicon on drought performance of tropical tree seedlings.

Elevated leaf silicon (Si) concentrations improve drought resistance in cultivated plants, suggesting Si might also improve drought performance of wild species. Tropical tree species, for instance, take up substantial amounts of Si, and leaf Si varies markedly at local and regional scales, suggesting consequences for seedling drought resistance. Yet, whether elevated leaf Si improves seedling drought performance in tropical forests is unknown. To manipulate leaf Si concentrations, seedlings of seven tropical tree species were grown in Si-rich and -poor soil, before exposing them to drought in the forest understorey. Survival, growth and wilting were monitored. Elevated leaf Si did not improve drought survival and growth in any of the species. In one species, drought survival was reduced in seedlings previously grown in Si-rich soil, contrary to our expectation. Our results suggest that elevated leaf Si does not improve drought resistance of wild tropical tree species. Elevated leaf Si may even reduce drought performance, suggesting differences in soil conditions influencing leaf Si may contribute to soil-related variation of tropical seedling performance. Furthermore, our results are at odds with most studies on cultivated species and show that alleviative effects of Si in crops cannot be generalized to wild plants in natural systems.

Investigating the Associations between Drought, Poverty, High-Risk Sexual Behaviours, and HIV Incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Climate change is increasing the likelihood of drought in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV prevalence is high. Drought could increase HIV transmission through various mediating mechanisms; we investigated these associations. We used data on people aged 15-59 from Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys from 2016 in Eswatini, Lesotho, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. Survey data were geospatially linked to precipitation data for 2014-2016, with local droughts defined as cumulative rainfall between 2014 and 2016 being in < 15th percentile of all 2-year periods over 1981-2016. Using multivariable logistic regression, stratified by sex and rural/urban residence, we examined associations between (a) drought and poverty, (b) wealth quintiles and sexual behaviours (transactional, high-risk, and intergenerational sex), (c) sexual behaviours and recently acquiring HIV, and (d) drought and recent HIV. Among 102,081 people, 31.5% resided in areas affected by drought during 2014-2016. Experiencing drought was positively associated with poverty for women and men in rural, but not urban, areas. For each group, increasing wealth was negatively associated with transactional sex. For rural women, intergenerational sex was positively associated with wealth. Women reporting each sexual behaviour had higher odds of recent HIV, with strong associations seen for high-risk sex, and, for urban women, intergenerational sex, with weaker associations among men. Women in rural areas who had been exposed to drought had higher odds of having recently acquired HIV (2.10 [95%CI: 1.17-3.77]), but not women in urban areas, or men. Droughts could potentially increase HIV transmission through increasing poverty and then sexual risk behaviours, particularly among women in rural areas.

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events.

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Ciclones, olas de calor, sequías y lluvias intensas son eventos comunes en Centroamérica y el Caribe, cuya frecuencia, intensidad y duración se espera aumente durante el siglo XXI a causa del cambio climático. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, se desconoce cuál será la incidencia de estos eventos meteorológicos extremos (EME) dentro de las áreas protegidas. En este estudio examinamos la exposición histórica y futura a los extremos climáticos y comparamos el grado de exposición dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas de toda la región por medio de 32 métricas que describen distintas dimensiones (intensidad, duración y frecuencia) de las olas de calor, los ciclones, las sequías y las precipitaciones. Los resultados indican que a medida que aumente el número de EME, las áreas protegidas estarán más expuestas a los extremos climáticos que las áreas no protegidas. Esto es especialmente cierto en el caso de las olas de calor, que, según las proyecciones, tendrán una intensidad y una duración medias significativamente mayores, y de los ciclones tropicales, que afectarán más gravemente a las zonas protegidas en los escenarios intensivos en carbono. Nuestros resultados también indican que las zonas protegidas estarán significativamente menos expuestas a sequías o lluvias torrenciales que las zonas no protegidas. Sin embargo, las sequías que podrían amenazar la conectividad entre áreas protegidas son cada vez más frecuentes en esta región. Se estima que aproximadamente el 65% del área de estudio experimentará al menos un episodio de sequía más intenso y duradero que las sequías anteriores. En conjunto, nuestros resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad de diseñar y aplicar con prontitud nuevas estrategias de conservación adaptadas a las amenazas asociadas a los EWE. A menos que se tomen medidas urgentes, la biodiversidad única de la región podría sufrir daños considerables.

Determining dengue infection risk in the Colombo district of Sri Lanka by inferencing the genetic parameters of Aedes mosquitoes.

BACKGROUND: For decades, dengue has posed a significant threat as a viral infectious disease, affecting numerous human lives globally, particularly in tropical regions, yet no cure has been discovered. The genetic trait of vector competence in Aedes mosquitoes, which facilitates dengue transmission, is difficult to measure and highly sensitive to environmental changes. METHODS: In this study we attempt, for the first time in a non-laboratory setting, to quantify the vector competence of Aedes mosquitoes assuming its homogeneity across both species; aegypti and albopictus and across the four Dengue serotypes. Estimating vector competence in relation to varying rainfall patterns was focused in this study to showcase the changes in this vector trait with respect to environmental variables. We quantify it using an existing mathematical model originally developed for malaria in a Bayesian inferencing setup. We conducted this study in the Colombo district of Sri Lanka where the highest number of human populations are threatened with dengue. Colombo district experiences continuous favorable temperature and humidity levels throughout the year creating ideal conditions for Aedes mosquitoes to thrive and transmit the Dengue disease. Therefore we only used the highly variable and seasonal rainfall as the primary environmental variable as it significantly influences the number of breeding sites and thereby impacting the population dynamics of Aedes. RESULTS: Our research successfully deduced vector competence values for the four identified seasons based on Monsoon rainfalls experienced in Colombo within a year. We used dengue data from 2009 - 2022 to infer the estimates. These estimated values have been corroborated through experimental studies documented in the literature, thereby validating the malaria model to estimate vector competence for dengue disease. CONCLUSION: Our research findings conclude that environmental conditions can amplify vector competence within specific seasons, categorized by their environmental attributes. Additionally, the deduced vector competence offers compelling evidence that it impacts disease transmission, irrespective of geographical location, climate, or environmental factors.

Process-Informed Subsampling Improves Subseasonal Rainfall Forecasts in Central America.

Subseasonal rainfall forecast skill is critical to support preparedness for hydrometeorological extremes. We assess how a process-informed evaluation, which subsamples forecasting model members based on their ability to represent potential predictors of rainfall, can improve monthly rainfall forecasts within Central America in the following month, using Costa Rica and Guatemala as test cases. We generate a constrained ensemble mean by subsampling 130 members from five dynamic forecasting models in the C3S multimodel ensemble based on their representation of both (a) zonal wind direction and (b) Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), at the time of initialization. Our results show in multiple months and locations increased mean squared error skill by 0.4 and improved detection rates of rainfall extremes. This method is transferrable to other regions driven by slowly-changing processes. Process-informed subsampling is successful because it identifies members that fail to represent the entire rainfall distribution when wind/SST error increases.

Avian responses to climate extremes: insights into abundance curves and species sensitivity using the UK Breeding Bird Survey.

Climate change remains one of the most urgent challenges for biodiversity conservation. Recent studies have highlighted that climate extremes (CLEXs) can lead to widespread and negative effects across all taxa and ecological levels, but most of these studies are based on short-term periods and small spatial scales and lack a multi-species approach. Here, using generalised additive models (GAMs) and the UK Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), we described response curves for the abundance of 100 resident bird species over large spatial and temporal scales and identified the species showing a greater sensitivity to CLEXs. We used five climatic indices computed at 1-km spatial resolution as proxies of CLEXs during the winter or breeding season and considered both 1- and 2-year lagged effects. The results demonstrated widespread and significant effects of CLEXs on bird abundances at both time lags and in both seasons. Winter frost days (FD0), summer days (SU25) during the breeding season and simple precipitation intensity index (SDII) during the breeding season mainly showed negative effects. Daily temperature range (DTR) in both winter and breeding season and dry days (DD) during the breeding season led to diversified responses across the species, with a prevalence of positive effects. A large proportion of species showed a high sensitivity to CLEXs, highlighting that these species may deserve attention in future studies aimed at biodiversity conservation. We demonstrated that CLEXs can represent a significant driver affecting population abundances over large spatial and temporal scales, emphasising the need for understanding mechanistic processes at the basis of the observed effects.

Inter-event and intra-event dynamics of microplastic emissions in an urban river during rainfall episodes.

Urban rivers represent the major conduits for land-sourced microplastics in the global oceans, yet the real-time dynamics of their emissions in rivers during rainfall (and runoff) events are poorly understood. Herein, we report the results of high-frequency sampling of microplastic particles (MPs) and fibers (MPFs) in the surface water of an urban river in Japan over the course of three rainfall events (i.e., light, moderate, and heavy rainfalls). The event mean concentrations (EMCs) of MPs amounted to 35,000 items/m3, 929,000 items/m3, and 331,000 items/m3; and the corresponding total loads were 0.5 kg, 19.8 kg, and 35.0 kg for light, moderate and heavy rainfalls, respectively. The inter-event total loads of MPs correlate well with the total rainfall, while the concentrations were linked with the number of antecedent dry days. The dynamic trends show that <2000 µm MPs displayed first flush effects during light to moderate rainfall events (>50% mass discharged with the initial 20-40% of flow). Small-sized MPs (10-40 µm) mobilized rapidly at lower rainfall intensities, whereas MPs over 2000 µm discharged immediately after the peak rainfall intensity. Moreover, <70 µm MPs depicted a surge following heavy rainfall events due to turbulent flow conditions reverting the deposited MPs into suspension. Overall, the three events increased the loads by 4-110 folds, and EMCs by 10-350 folds compared to the concentrations during dry weather while portraying a significant impact on 300-1000 µm MPs. The dynamics of MPs were correlated with those of suspended solids in river water, and the characteristics were comparable to the same of road dust sampled in Japan. Although the dynamic trends between MPs and MPFs in river water were comparable, MPFs were relatively less impacted by rain, likely due to the intervention of separate sewer systems in the study area.