Interdependent network restoration games with incomplete information and bounded rationality.

Communities face the challenge of finding restoration strategies in the aftermath of disasters. In particular, independent and self-interested utility managers devise such strategies for infrastructure through a heuristic decentralized process. This paper takes a game-theoretic approach to model the decentralized and strategic restoration decision making with application to interdependent infrastructure. Particularly, we model the decision process using simultaneous games to investigate decision makers' conflicting preferences. We employ Bayesian games to incorporate the realistic assumptions of poor interagent communication, resulting in incomplete information. Also, we account for behavioral biases such as bounded rationality, cooperative behavior or lack thereof, and equality-driven resource allocations. We test our models using ideal, synthetic interdependent networks, and the realistic infrastructure of Shelby County, TN. Results show that cooperation leads to the best-performing decisions even if others are not cooperative. The necessity of cooperation is even higher when there is a dominant player whose service is vital to other players. Our sensitivity results highlight the significant influence of resource availability and allocation on the performance of restoration plans. Our approach enhances the practicality of decision models for community resilience, and unravels novel policy strategies such as cooperation incentives.

Strategic restoration planning for land birds in the Colorado River Delta, Mexico.

Ecological restoration is an essential strategy for mitigating the current biodiversity crisis, yet restoration actions are costly. We used systematic conservation planning principles to design an approach that prioritizes restoration sites for birds and tested it in a riparian forest restoration program in the Colorado River Delta. Restoration goals were to maximize the abundance and diversity of 15 priority birds with a variety of habitat preferences. We built abundance models for priority birds based on the current landscape, and predicted bird distributions and relative abundances under a scenario of complete riparian forest restoration throughout our study area. Then, we used Zonation conservation planning software to rank this restored landscape based on core areas for all priority birds. The locations with the highest ranks represented the highest priorities for restoration and were located throughout the river reach. We optimized how much of the available landscape to restore by simulating restoration of the top 10-90% of ranked sites in 10% intervals. We found that total diversity was maximized when 40% of the landscape was restored, and mean relative abundance was maximized when 80% of the landscape was restored. The results suggest that complete restoration is not optimal for this community of priority birds and restoration of approximately 60% of the landscape would provide a balance between maximum relative abundance and diversity. Subsequent planning efforts will combine our results with an assessment of restoration costs to provide further decision support for the restoration-siting process. Our approach can be applied to any landscape-scale restoration program to improve the return on investment of limited economic resources for restoration.

Multicriteria analysis of critical areas for restoration in a semiarid landscape: A comparison between stakeholder groups.

In landscape-scale ecological restoration, there is an urgent need to develop participatory systematic planning strategies and prioritization schemes that are operational under current technical and legal constraints. Different stakeholder groups may differ in their choice of criteria to define critical areas for restoration. Analyzing the correspondence between stakeholder characteristics and their expressed preferences is key to understand their values and facilitate consensus among the different groups. We analyzed the participatory identification of critical areas for restoration in a Mediterranean semiarid landscape of southeastern Spain by means of two Spatial Multicriteria Analyses. The first one included 33 ecological and socioeconomic prioritization criteria. The second included 24 ecosystem services. Prioritization criteria and services and their weights were based on the preferences of 46 stakeholders. We distinguished three stakeholder groups, according to their approach to ecological restoration. Stakeholders showed similarities regarding the most important criteria and services assessed. Yet, we found contrasted opinions between the group labeled as Biodiversity, who showed preference for Regulating Services and Ecosystem Functions, and the two groups labeled as Environment, and Agriculture & other occupations who assigned the highest importance to Provisioning and Cultural Services, along with highly Anthropized Environments. Maps integrating criteria and services weighted by the different groups of stakeholders were largely coincident, because of their overall agreement and the high number of criteria and services included in the analysis. Our approach allowed the identification of consensual critical areas for restoration, which were mainly covered by shrublands and rainfed crops, and mostly characterized by low to medium supply of ecosystem services. Our study emphasizes the need to recognize and integrate different social perspectives when identifying critical areas for restoration and highlights the importance of using complementary approaches as decision-making support tools to define these areas.

Social-ecological network analysis of scale mismatches in estuary watershed restoration.

Resource management boundaries seldom align with environmental systems, which can lead to social and ecological problems. Mapping and analyzing how resource management organizations in different areas collaborate can provide vital information to help overcome such misalignment. Few quantitative approaches exist, however, to analyze social collaborations alongside environmental patterns, especially among local and regional organizations (i.e., in multilevel governance settings). This paper develops and applies such an approach using social-ecological network analysis (SENA), which considers relationships among and between social and ecological units. The framework and methods are shown using an estuary restoration case from Puget Sound, United States. Collaboration patterns and quality are analyzed among local and regional organizations working in hydrologically connected areas. These patterns are correlated with restoration practitioners' assessments of the productivity of their collaborations to inform network theories for natural resource governance. The SENA is also combined with existing ecological data to jointly consider social and ecological restoration concerns. Results show potentially problematic areas in nearshore environments, where collaboration networks measured by density (percentage of possible network connections) and productivity are weakest. Many areas also have high centralization (a few nodes hold the network together), making network cohesion dependent on key organizations. Although centralization and productivity are inversely related, no clear relationship between density and productivity is observed. This research can help practitioners to identify where governance capacity needs strengthening and jointly consider social and ecological concerns. It advances SENA by developing a multilevel approach to assess social-ecological (or social-environmental) misalignments, also known as scale mismatches.

Seed freeze sensitivity and ex situ longevity of 295 species in the native Hawaiian flora.

PREMISE: Ex situ seed banking is critical for plant conservation globally, especially for threatened floras in tropical ecosystems like Hawai'i. Seed bank managers must maximize longevity, and species managers must plan restoration before seeds lose viability. Previous observations suggested some native Hawaiian seeds lost viability in frozen storage (-18°C). We investigated seed storage behavior in the Hawaiian flora to optimize storage conditions and recommend re-collection intervals (RCI) to maximize viability of stored seeds. METHODS: Using 20+ years of real-time seed storage viability data, we tested freeze sensitivity for 197 species and calculated RCIs for 295 species. Using paired tests of accessions stored >2 yr at 5°C and -18°C, we developed an index of relative performance to determine freeze sensitivity. We calculated RCIs at 70% of highest germination (P70). RESULTS: We identified four families (Campanulaceae, Cyperaceae, Rubiaceae, and Urticaceae) and four genera with seed freeze sensitivity and six additional genera with likely freeze sensitivity. Storage longevity was variable, but 195 species had viability >70% at the most recent tests (1 to 20+ yr), 123 species had RCIs >10 yr, and 45 species had RCIs <5 yr. CONCLUSIONS: Freeze sensitive storage behavior is more widely observed in Hawai'i than any other regional flora, perhaps due to insufficient testing elsewhere. We present a new protocol to test seed freeze sensitivity, which is often not evident until 2-5 years of storage. Re-collection intervals will guide restoration practices in Hawai'i, and results inform seed conservation efforts globally, especially tropical and subtropical regions.

Use of seasonal forecasting to manage weather risk in ecological restoration.

Ecological restoration has widely variable outcomes from successes to partial or complete failures, and there are diverse perspectives on the factors that influence the likelihood of success. However, not much is known about how these factors are perceived, and whether people's perceptions match realities. We surveyed 307 people involved in the restoration of native vegetation across Australia to identify their perceptions on the factors influencing the success of restoration projects. We found that weather (particularly drought and flooding) has realized impacts on the success of restoration projects, but is not perceived to be an important risk when planning new projects. This highlights the need for better recognition and management of weather risk in restoration and a potential role of seasonal forecasting. We used restoration case studies across Australia to assess the ability of seasonal forecasts provided by the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia, version M24 (POAMA-2) to detect unfavorable weather with sufficient skill and lead time to be useful for restoration projects. We found that rainfall and temperature variables in POAMA-2 predicted 88% of the weather issues encountered in restoration case studies apart from strong winds and cyclones. Of those restoration case studies with predictable weather issues, POAMA-2 had the forecast skill to predict the dominant or first-encountered issue in 67% of cases. We explored the challenges associated with uptake of forecast products through consultation with restoration practitioners and developed a prototype forecast product using a local case study. Integrating seasonal forecasting into decision making through (1) identifying risk management strategies during restoration planning, (2) accessing the forecast a month prior to revegetation activities, and (3) adapting decisions if extreme weather is forecasted, is expected to improve the establishment success of restoration.

Assessment of the restoration potential for ecological sustainability in the Xijiang River basin, Southwest China: A comparative analysis of karst and non-karst areas.

Vegetation restoration is an eco-friendly strategy for countering land degradation and biodiversity loss. Since 2000-2001, large-scale restoration projects have been performed in Southwest China, with the net primary productivity (NPP) increasing over the past two decades. However, negative ecohydrological impacts, including streamflow decline and soil moisture deficit, have been reported following afforestation. Current understanding of the permissible NPP capacity (NPPcap) and NPP potential (NPPpot) under karst and non-karst areas or planted and natural vegetations constrained by environmental factors remains unclear. Here multiple environmental drivers characterizing the heterogeneous landscape in the Xijiang River Basin (Southwest China) were employed to predict the NPPcap using a random forest model. Results showed that 85% of the area exhibited an increasing trend in NPPcap during 2001-2018. Overall, 3.50% of the area has exceeded the NPPcap, implying an excessive plantation and potential water deficit in these areas. Excluding agriculture activities, urban areas, and water bodies, we found there is room for an average extra 22.85% of NPP enhancement. The NPPpot was spatially imbalanced, with high NPPpot located in the northeast, indicating these areas as a target area for future vegetation restoration. Moreover, the NPPpot reduction in karst areas (1.12 g C m-2 a-1) was more pronounced than in non-karst areas (0.26 g C m-2 a-1), highlighting a stronger negative impact on NPPpot in karst areas. Furthermore, significant NPPpot differences were found between planted vegetation and natural vegetation for both karst and non-karst areas. According to the findings, we identified four separate restoration sub-zones and proposed tailored strategies to guide the implementation of future restoration efforts. Our study highlights restoration potential and where land is available for reforestation but also the urgent need for future restoration activities towards ecosystem sustainability.

Nature-Based Restoration Simulation for Disaster-Prone Coastal Area Using Green Infrastructure Effect.

Floods in coastal areas are caused by a range of complex factors such as typhoons and heavy rainfall, and this issue has become increasingly serious as interference has occurred in the social-ecological system in recent years. Given the structural limitations and high maintenance costs of the existing gray infrastructure, the need for a nature-based restoration plan utilizing green infrastructure has been raised. The purpose of this study is to simulate the restoration process through the quantification of green infrastructure effects along with resilience in disaster-prone coastal areas, and to present it as nature-based restoration planning. For this purpose, first, a disaster-prone area was derived from Haeundae-gu, Busan, Republic of Korea, which was affected by typhoons. In order to simulate the runoff from typhoon "Chaba" in the target area and the effects of reducing the runoff of green infrastructure, relevant data was collected and a model constructed. Finally, the effects of the green infrastructure as applied to the disaster-prone area were quantified by means of resilience and a nature-based restoration plan was presented. As a result of this study, first, the runoff reduction effect was greatest when the maximum biotope area ratio of 30% was applied to the artificial ground. In the case of the green roof, the effect was the greatest 6 h following the typhoon passing through, and the effects of the infiltration storage facility was greater 9 h following the same. Porous pavement exhibited the lowest runoff reduction effect. In terms of resilience, it was found that the system was restored to its original state after the biotope area ratio of 20% was applied. This study is significant in that it analyzes the effects of green infrastructure based upon the concept of resilience and connects them to nature-based restoration planning. Based on this, it will be provided as an important tool for planning policy management to effectively respond to future coastal disasters.

Wetland phosphorus dynamics and phosphorus removal potential.

Wetlands are typically defined as inundated areas with hydric soils forming a transitional zone between terrestrial and aquatic systems. Wetlands have numerous ecosystem benefits, one of which is the potential to mitigate or reverse eutrophication of surface water bodies. The physical, chemical, and biological processes governing phosphorus cycling in wetlands are nuanced and complex; understanding these has direct relevance to the restoration of wetlands, particularly for projects aimed at improving water quality in adjacent water bodies. This literature review summarizes these processes and provides recommendations relevant to restoration of permanent and semipermanent flow-through wetlands, such as those in the Upper Klamath Basin of Oregon. It also reviews several wetland restoration studies assessing phosphorus removal. In summary, appropriately designed and managed wetlands can remove 25% to 44% of inflowing total phosphorus. Deposition of particulate matter, adsorption, uptake by biomass, and peat accretion are the primary phosphorus sequestration mechanisms in wetlands, depending on site-specific conditions (e.g., growing season length, vegetation communities, and soil type). In areas with relatively short growing seasons and where wintertime loads are targeted for treatment, as in the Upper Klamath Basin, deposition of particulate matter will be the primary mechanism for phosphorus sequestration in wetlands given that two of the three remaining processes occur during the growing season. Recommendations to maximize phosphorus sequestration in wetlands include the following: designing wetlands for hydraulic residence time of several days to weeks, managing wetlands for rapid establishment of wetland vegetation with limited decomposition potential (e.g., tule [hardstem bulrush] to facilitate peat accretion), and flooding during periods with low water temperatures and initially isolating restored wetlands from adjacent water bodies (both to minimize diffusive flux of phosphorus from wetland sediment to the water column). Relevant to the Upper Klamath Basin, there is also justification to prioritize areas with relatively high particulate phosphorus load given the potential limited capacity for phosphorus treatment associated with other sequestration mechanisms. Finally, a combination of mitigation and restoration strategies is necessary to achieve water quality objectives, meaning that wetland restoration alone may not be sufficient. Monitoring is advised to facilitate application of adaptive management principles. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Appropriately designed and managed wetlands can remove 25% to 44% of inflowing total phosphorus. Deposition of particulate matter, adsorption, uptake by biomass, and peat accretion are the primary phosphorus sequestration mechanisms in wetlands, depending on site-specific conditions (e.g., growing season length, vegetation communities, and soil type). Recommendations to maximize phosphorus sequestration in wetlands include designing wetlands for hydraulic residence time of several days to weeks; managing wetlands for rapid establishment of wetland vegetation with limited decomposition potential (e.g., tule [hardstem bulrush], to facilitate peat accretion); and flooding during periods with low water temperatures and initially isolating restored wetlands from adjacent water bodies (both to minimize diffusive flux of phosphorus from wetland sediment to the water column). A combination of mitigation and restoration strategies are necessary to achieve water quality objectives, meaning that wetland restoration alone may not be sufficient. Monitoring is advised to facilitate application of adaptive management principles.

Wetland Restoration Planning Approach Based on Interval Fuzzy Linear Programming under Uncertainty.

When planning wetland restoration projects, the planting area allocation and the costs of the restoration measures are two major issues faced by decision makers. In this study, a framework based on the interval fuzzy linear programming (IFLP) method is introduced for the first time to plan wetland restoration projects. The proposed framework can not only effectively deal with interval and fuzzy uncertainties that exist in the planning process of wetland restorations but also handle trade-offs between ecological environment benefits and economic cost. This framework was applied to a real-world wetland restoration planning problem in the northeast of China to verify its validity and examine the credibility of the constraints. The optimized results obtained from the framework that we have developed indicate that higher ecological and social benefits can be obtained with optimal restoration costs after using the wetland restoration decision-making framework. The optimal restoration measure allocation schemes obtained by IFLP under different credibility levels can help decision makers generate a range of alternatives, which can also provide decision suggestions to local managers to generate a satisfactory decision-making plan. Furthermore, a comparison was made between the IFLP model and ILP model in this study. The comparison results indicate that the IFLP model provides more information regarding ecological environment and economic trade-offs between the system objective, certainty, and reliability. This framework provides managers with an effective way to plan wetland restoration projects, while transference of the model may help solve similar problems.

Coupling systematic planning and expert judgement enhances the efficiency of river restoration.

Ineffectiveness of current river restoration practices hinders the achievement of ecological quality targets set by country-specific regulations. Recent advances in river restoration help planning efforts more systematically to reach ecological targets at the least costs. However, such approaches are often desktop-based and overlook real-world constraints. We argue that combining two techniques commonly used in the conservation arena - expert judgement and systematic planning - will deliver cost-effective restoration plans with a high potential for implementation. We tested this idea targeting the restoration of spawning habitat, i.e. gravel bars, for 11 rheophilic fish species along a river system in Germany (Havel-Spree rivers). With a group of local fish experts, we identified the location and extent of potential gravel bars along the rivers and necessary improvements to migration barriers to ensure fish passage. Restoration cost of each gravel bar included the cost of the action itself plus a fraction of the cost necessary to ensure longitudinal connectivity by upgrading or building fish passages located downstream. We set restoration targets according to the EU Water Framework Directive, i.e. relative abundance of 11 fish species in the reference community and optimised a restoration plan by prioritising a subset of restoration sites from the full set of identified sites, using the conservation planning software Marxan. Out of the 66 potential gravel bars, 36 sites which were mainly located in the downstream section of the system were selected, reflecting their cost-effectiveness given that fewer barriers needed intervention. Due to the limited overall number of sites that experts identified as being suitable for restoring spawning habitat, reaching abundance-targets was challenged. We conclude that coupling systematic river restoration planning with expert judgement produces optimised restoration plans that account for on-the-ground implementation constraints. If applied, this approach has a high potential to enhance overall efficiency of future restoration efforts.