Validation of a deep-learning-based retinal biomarker (Reti-CVD) in the prediction of cardiovascular disease: data from UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Currently in the United Kingdom, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is based on the QRISK3 score, in which 10% 10-year CVD risk indicates clinical intervention. However, this benchmark has limited efficacy in clinical practice and the need for a more simple, non-invasive risk stratification tool is necessary. Retinal photography is becoming increasingly acceptable as a non-invasive imaging tool for CVD. Previously, we developed a novel CVD risk stratification system based on retinal photographs predicting future CVD risk. This study aims to further validate our biomarker, Reti-CVD, (1) to detect risk group of ≥ 10% in 10-year CVD risk and (2) enhance risk assessment in individuals with QRISK3 of 7.5-10% (termed as borderline-QRISK3 group) using the UK Biobank. METHODS: Reti-CVD scores were calculated and stratified into three risk groups based on optimized cut-off values from the UK Biobank. We used Cox proportional-hazards models to evaluate the ability of Reti-CVD to predict CVD events in the general population. C-statistics was used to assess the prognostic value of adding Reti-CVD to QRISK3 in borderline-QRISK3 group and three vulnerable subgroups. RESULTS: Among 48,260 participants with no history of CVD, 6.3% had CVD events during the 11-year follow-up. Reti-CVD was associated with an increased risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-1.52) with a 13.1% (95% CI, 11.7-14.6%) 10-year CVD risk in Reti-CVD-high-risk group. The 10-year CVD risk of the borderline-QRISK3 group was greater than 10% in Reti-CVD-high-risk group (11.5% in non-statin cohort [n = 45,473], 11.5% in stage 1 hypertension cohort [n = 11,966], and 14.2% in middle-aged cohort [n = 38,941]). C statistics increased by 0.014 (0.010-0.017) in non-statin cohort, 0.013 (0.007-0.019) in stage 1 hypertension cohort, and 0.023 (0.018-0.029) in middle-aged cohort for CVD event prediction after adding Reti-CVD to QRISK3. CONCLUSIONS: Reti-CVD has the potential to identify individuals with ≥ 10% 10-year CVD risk who are likely to benefit from earlier preventative CVD interventions. For borderline-QRISK3 individuals with 10-year CVD risk between 7.5 and 10%, Reti-CVD could be used as a risk enhancer tool to help improve discernment accuracy, especially in adult groups that may be pre-disposed to CVD.

Can Age at Diagnosis and Sex Improve the Performance of the American Thyroid Association Risk Stratification System for Prediction of Structural Persistent and Recurrent Disease in Patients With Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma? A Multicenter Study.

OBJECTIVE: Although the age at diagnosis has been suggested as a major determinant of disease-specific survival in the recent TNM staging system, it is not included in the recent American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines to estimate the risk of recurrence. Nevertheless, the effect of sex on differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) recurrence is controversial. Therefore, this multicenter study was conducted to assess whether age at diagnosis and sex can improve the performance of the ATA 3-tiered risk stratification system in patients with DTC with at least 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: In this study, the computer-recorded data of the patients diagnosed with DTC between January 1985 and January 2016 were analyzed. Only patients with proven structural persistent/recurrent disease were selected for comparisons. RESULTS: This study consisted of 1691 patients (female, 1367) with DTC. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, disease-free survival (DFS) was markedly longer in females only in the ATA low-risk category (P = .045). Nevertheless, a markedly longer DFS was observed in patients aged <45 years in the ATA low- and intermediate-risk categories (P = .004 and P = .009, respectively), whereas in patients aged <55 years, DFS was markedly longer only in the ATA low-risk category (P < .001). In the Cox proportional hazards model, ages of ≥45 and ≥55 years at diagnosis and the ATA risk stratification system were all independent predictors of persistent/recurrent disease. CONCLUSION: Applying the age cutoff of 45 years in the ATA intermediate- and low-risk categories may identify patients at a higher risk of persistence/recurrence and may improve the performance of the ATA risk stratification system, whereas sex may improve the performance of only the ATA low-risk category.

Evaluation of Alternative Risk Stratification Systems in a Large Series of Solitary Fibrous Tumors with Molecular Findings and Ki-67 Index Data: Do They Improve Risk Assessment?

The clinical evolution of solitary fibrous tumors (SFTs) is often uncertain and several risk stratification systems (RSS) have been proposed. The Demicco et al. RSS is the most frequently implemented. In this study we aim to validate two alternative RSS (Sugita et al. and G-Score) using results for the Demicco RSS from a previous study of 97 SFTs. In addition, we aim to determine whether reclassified cases had any distinctive molecular features. As the Sugita et al. system substitutes mitotic count with Ki-67 index we also investigated whether Ki-67 results for tissue microarrays are comparable to those obtained using whole tissue sections. In the present study we detected that many cases classified by Demicco RSS as low-risk were reclassified as intermediate risk using the new system (G-score RSS). Kaplan-Meier survival plots for G-Score RSS showed that the low-risk and intermediate-risk SFTs had a similar evolution that contrasted with the more aggressive high-risk group. Moreover, the similar evolution in both low and intermediate-risk groups occurred despite the G-score system being stricter in classifying low-risk tumors. We observed that Sugita RSS does not provide any better risk stratification in comparison with the Demicco RSS, and testing both RSS in our series produced similar Kaplan-Meier survival data. We found some discordant results when comparing whole sections and the corresponding tissue microarrays samples, finding the hotspot areas easier to locate in whole sections. Forty-one SFTs with initial low-risk assigned by the Demicco RSS were reclassified as intermediate-risk by G-score finding both TP53 and HTER mutations in four cases, only HTER mutation in 11 cases, and only TP53 mutation in 2 cases. All six cases of SFT classified as high-risk by both the Demicco and G-score RSS suffered recurrence/metastasis, and half showed both TP53 and HTER mutations. Five SFTs were categorized as low-risk by both Demicco and G-score, of which 4 cases revealed HTER mutation. Regarding the outcome of these 5 patients, two were lost to follow-up, and one of the remaining three patients suffered recurrence. We believe that although the presence of both TP53 and HTER mutations may confer or be related to poor evolution, the isolated presence of HTER mutation alone would not necessarily be related to poor outcome. The G-score RSS more accurately identified low-risk patients than the other two risk models evaluated in the present series. Late recurrence/metastasis may occasionally be observed even in low-risk SFTs categorized by stricter classification systems such as the G-score RSS. These findings support the possibility that additional, as yet unknown factors may influence the clinical evolution of SFTs. In conclusion, given the possibility of late recurrence, long-term follow-up is recommended for all SFT patients, even in cases classified as low risk by the stricter G-score system. An integration of clinical, radiological, pathological, and molecular findings may improve SFT risk stratification and better predict patient outcome.

Confirmation of ProMisE: A simple, genomics-based clinical classifier for endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND: Classification of endometrial carcinomas (ECs) by morphologic features is irreproducible and imperfectly reflects tumor biology. The authors developed the Proactive Molecular Risk Classifier for Endometrial Cancer (ProMisE), a molecular classification system based on The Cancer Genome Atlas genomic subgroups, and sought to confirm both feasibility and prognostic ability in a new, large cohort of ECs. METHODS: Immunohistochemistry (IHC) for the presence or absence of mismatch repair (MMR) proteins (to identify MMR deficiency [MMR-D]), sequencing for polymerase-ɛ (POLE) exonuclease domain mutations (POLE EDMs), and IHC for tumor protein 53 (p53) (wild type vs null/missense mutations; p53 wt and p53 abn, respectively) were performed on 319 new EC samples. Subgroups were characterized and assessed relative to outcomes. The prognostic ability of ProMisE was compared with that of current risk-stratification systems (European Society of Medical Oncology [ESMO]). RESULTS: ProMisE decision-tree classification achieved categorization of all cases and identified 4 prognostic subgroups with distinct overall, disease-specific, and progression-free survival (P < .001). Tumors with POLE EDMs had the most favorable prognosis, and those with p53 abn the worst prognosis, and separation of the 2 middle survival curves (p53 wt and MMR-D) was observed. There were no significant differences in survival between the ESMO low-risk and intermediate-risk groups. ProMisE improved the ability to discriminate outcomes compared with ESMO risk stratification. There was substantial overlap (89%) between the p53 abn and high-risk ESMO subgroups; but, otherwise, there were no predictable associations between molecular and ESMO risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular classification of ECs can be achieved using clinically applicable methods and provides independent prognostic information beyond established clinicopathologic risk factors available at diagnosis. Consistent, biologically relevant categorization enables stratification for clinical trials and/or targeted therapy, identification of women who are at increased risk of having Lynch syndrome, and may guide clinical management. Cancer 2017;123:802-13. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

A combination of risk stratification systems for thyroid nodules and cervical lymph nodes may improve the diagnosis and management of thyroid nodules.

Introduction: To assess the performance of the European Thyroid Association Thyroid Imaging and Reporting Data System (EU-TIRADS) and the Korean Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (K-TIRADS), which combine risk stratification systems for thyroid nodules (TN-RSS) and cervical lymph nodes (LN-RSS) in diagnosing malignant and metastatic thyroid cancer in a single referral center. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 2,055 consecutive patients who underwent thyroidectomy or fine-needle aspiration (FNA) from January 2021 to December 2022. TNs and LNs were categorized according to the ultrasonography (US) features of EU-TIRADS and K-TIRADS, respectively. The diagnostic performance and postponed malignancy rate (PMR) were compared with those of EU-TIRADS and K-TIRADS. PMR was defined as the number of patients with malignant nodules not recommended for biopsy among patients with cervical LN metastasis. Results: According to the EU-TIRADS and K-TIRADS, for TN-RSS alone, there were no significant differences in sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, unnecessary FNA rate (UFR), missed malignancy rate (MMR), and PMR between the two TIRADSs (29.0% vs. 28.8%, 50.5% vs. 51.1%, 32.3% vs. 32.2%, 23.6% vs. 23.5%, 88.6% vs. 88.5%, and 54.2% vs. 54.5%, P > 0.05 for all). Combining the LN-RSS increased the diagnostic accuracy (42.7% vs. 32.3% in EU-TIRADS; 38.8% vs. 32.2% in K-TIRADS) and decreased the PMR (54.2% vs. 33.9% in EU-TIRADS; 54.5% vs. 39.3% in K-TIRADS). EU-TIRADS had higher sensitivity and accuracy and lower PMR than K-TIRADS (41.3% vs. 36.7%, 42.7% vs. 38.8%,33.9% vs. 39.3%, P < 0.05 for all). Conclusions: A combination of TN-RSS and LN-RSS for the management of thyroid nodules may be associated with a reduction in PMR, with enhanced sensitivity and accuracy for thyroid cancers in EU-TIRADS and K-TIRADS. These results may offer a new direction for the detection of aggressive thyroid cancers.

Enhancing clinical decision-making: A novel nomogram for stratifying cancer-specific survival in middle-aged individuals with follicular thyroid carcinoma utilizing SEER data.

Background: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common malignant tumor in the endocrine system, is also one of the head and neck tumor. Follicular Thyroid Carcinoma (FTC) plays an important role in the pathological classification of thyroid cancer. This study aimed to develop an innovative predictive tool, a nomogram, for predicting cancer specific survival (CSS) in middle-aged FTC patients. Methods: We collected patient data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The data from patients between 2004 and 2015 were used as the training set, and the data from patients between 2016 and 2018 were used as the validation set. To identify independent risk factors affecting patient survival, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed. Based on this, we developed a nomogram model aimed at predicting CSS in middle-aged patients with FTC. The consistency index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and the calibration curve were used to evaluate the accuracy and confidence of the model. Results: A total of 2470 patients were enrolled in this study, in which patients from 2004 to 2015 were randomly assigned to the training cohort (N = 1437) and validation cohort (N = 598), and patients from 2016 to 2018 were assigned to the external validation cohort (N = 435) in terms of time. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that marriage, histological grade and TNM stage were independent risk factors for survival. The C-index for the training cohort was 0.866 (95 % CI: 0.805-0.927), for the validation cohort it was 0.944 (95 % CI: 0.903-0.985), and for the external validation cohort, it reached 0.999 (95 % CI: 0.997-1.001). Calibration curves and AUC suggest that the model has good accuracy. Conclusions: We developed an innovative nomogram to predict CSS in middle-aged patients with FTC. Our model after a rigorous internal validation and external validation process, based on the time proved that the high level of accuracy and reliability. This tool helps healthcare professionals and patients make informed clinical decisions.

Survival nomogram and risk classification system for patients with adrenocortical carcinoma: a study based on the SEER database and external validation in China.

Background: Adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is an extremely rare and highly invasive malignant tumor. However, there is currently no reliable method to predict the prognosis of ACC. Our objective is to construct a nomogram and a risk classification system to predict the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year overall survival (OS) of ACC. Methods: We retrieved clinicopathological data of patients diagnosed with ACC in The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and divided them into training and validation cohorts with a 7:3 ratio. Simultaneously, we collected an external validation cohort from The First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University (Shanghai, China). Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify relevant risk factors, which were then combined to develop a correlation nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC), and calibration curves. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to assess the clinical utility of the nomogram. In addition, Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated to demonstrate the variation in OS between groups. Results: The final nomogram consisted of five factors: age, T, N, M, and history of chemotherapy. Our prognostic model demonstrated significant discriminative ability, with C-index and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) values exceeding 0.70. Additionally, DCA validated the clinical utility of the nomogram. In the entire cohort, the median OS for patients in the low- and high-risk groups was 70 and 10 months, respectively. Conclusions: A nomogram and a corresponding risk classification system were developed in order to predict the OS of patients diagnosed with ACC. These tools have the potential to provide valuable support for patient counseling and assist in the decision-making process related to treatment options.

An economically efficient strategy for diagnosing atypia of undetermined significance or follicular lesion of undetermined significance thyroid nodules with ultrasound-based risk stratification systems and BRAFV600E testing.

Background: The management of thyroid nodules classified as atypia of undetermined significance or follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS) has been a subject of ongoing debate. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate a cost-effective approach for managing these nodules by combining BRAFV600E mutation analysis with the guidelines provided by the American Thyroid Association (ATA) or the American College of Radiology (ACR) Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TIRADS). Methods: This study included 762 AUS/FLUS nodules in 551 patients with a postoperative pathology. A preoperative BRAFV600E gene test and an evaluation using the ATA guidelines and ACR-TIRADS were performed. Two combined diagnostic approaches were employed: In method 1, all nodules underwent BRAFV600E gene testing, and nodules testing positive for BRAFV600E or for risk stratification systems (RSSs) were diagnosed as malignant, while those with negative results in both tests were considered benign. In method 2 (modified combination method), nodules were reclassified into low-risk (category 2 and 3 in the ATA guidelines and ACR-TIRADS), medium-risk (category 4), and high-risk (category 5) groups based on the malignancy rate of the RSSs. BRAFV600E gene testing was applied only with the medium-risk group. Nodules with positive BRAFV600E mutation were upgraded to the high-risk group, while negative cases remained in the medium-risk group. Results: Both malignancy rates and positive BRAFV600E mutation rates increased with the increase in RSS category (P<0.001). The combination of ACR with BRAFV600E gene testing significantly improved the area under the curve (AUC) compared to the use of ACR or BRAFV600E alone (the AUCs for ACR combined with BRAFV600E, modified ACR combined with BRAFV600E, ACR alone, and BRAFV600E alone were 0.875, 0.878, 0.832, and 0.839, respectively; P<0.05 for both combinations vs. ACR or BRAFV600E alone). Similarly, ATA combined with BRAFV600E showed significant improvements in AUC compared to ATA alone (the AUCs for ATA combined with BRAFV600E, modified ATA combined with BRAFV600E, and ATA alone were 0.851, 0.846, 0.809, respectively; P<0.001 for both combination methods vs. ATA alone), but there was no significant difference observed compared to using BRAFV600E alone (P=0.450 and P=0.680 for both combination methods vs. BRAFV600E). Notably, the AUC of ACR combined with BRAFV600E was greater than that of ATA combined with BRAFV600E (P=0.047 and P=0.007 for both combination methods, respectively). There were no significant differences in diagnostic performance between the two combination approaches (P=0.428 for ACR combined with BRAFV600E and P=0.314 for ATA combined with BRAFV600E). Performing BRAFV600E gene testing only on the medium-risk groups (modified combination method) significantly reduced the rate of BRAFV600E gene testing (P<0.001) without increasing the false-negative rate (P=0.818 and P=0.394 for ACR and ATA, respectively). Conclusions: Incorporating the BRAFV600E gene test exclusively for nodules in the medium-risk group significantly improved diagnostic efficacy, reduced the utilization of gene tests, and maintained a consistent false-negative rate.

Comparison of ultrasound risk stratification systems for pediatric thyroid nodules.

Background: There is currently insufficient data to validate adult-based US risk stratification systems (RSSs) for the identification of malignant thyroid nodules in a pediatric population. Methods: From October 2016 and May 2023, 173 thyroid nodules of pediatric patients (age ≤ 18 years) with definitive pathology results and ultrasound (US) examination within 1 month before surgery or fine-needle aspiration (FNA) biopsy in our institution were enrolled in this study. The clinical and US characteristics of these nodules were retrospectively reviewed and categorized according to the ACR-TIRADS, C-TIRADS, and ATA guidelines. The diagnostic performance of US-based FNA criteria (original and simulating) of the three guidelines in thyroid cancer detection was estimated. Results: The three RSSs had similar AUC according to the categories(0.849-0.852, all P > 0.05). When combined with the original FNA criteria of the three RSSs to manage the nodules, the FNA rate of ACR-TIRADS and C-TIRADS were significantly less than ATA guidelines (53.18% vs. 64.63%, P < 0.05, and 52.60% vs. 64.63%, P < 0.05). The missed malignancy rate (MMR) and unnecessary FNA rate (UFR) of ATA guidelines (50.00%, 35.85%) was highest among the three RSSs, followed by the C-TIRADS (37.80%, 19.57%) and the ACR-TIRADS (37.04%, 19.57%). When nodules < 1 cm with the highest category in each RSS biopsied, that is when using the simulating FNA thresholds, the MMR was reduced overall (all P < 0.001), without a change in the UFR (all P > 0.05). All the three RSSs showed a substantial improvement in accuracy and malignant detection rate (all P < 0.05). Conclusion: The ACR-TIRADS, C-TIRADS, and ATA guidelines showed high missed malignancy rates when using their original recommended FNA criteria. When nodules < 1 cm with the highest category in each RSS biopsied, the missed malignancy rate of each RSS was decreased. Decreasing the FNA thresholds for highly suspicious malignant nodules may therefore be an effective means of managing malignant thyroid nodules in pediatric patients.

A practical nomogram and risk stratification system for predicting survival outcomes in neuroblastoma patients: a SEER population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Neuroblastoma (NB) is a childhood malignancy with marked heterogeneity, resulting in highly variable outcomes among patients. This study aims to establish a novel nomogram and risk stratification system to predict the overall survival (OS) for patients with NB. METHODS: We analyzed neuroblastoma patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2004 and 2015. The nomogram was constructed using independent risk factors for OS, identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The accuracy of this nomogram was evaluated with the concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. In addition, we developed a risk stratification system based on the total score of each patient in the nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 2185 patients were randomly assigned to the training group and the testing group. Six risk factors, including age, chemotherapy, brain metastases, primary site, tumor stage, and tumor size, were identified in the training group. Using these factors, a nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS of NB patients. This model exhibited superior accuracy in the training and testing groups, exceeding traditional tumor stage prediction. Subgroup analysis suggested worse prognosis for retroperitoneal origin in the intermediate-risk group and adrenal gland origin in the high-risk group compared to other sites. Additionally, the prognosis for high-risk patients significantly improved after surgery. We also developed a web application to make the nomogram more user-friendly in clinical practices. CONCLUSION: This nomogram demonstrates excellent accuracy and reliability, offering more precise personalized prognostic predictions to clinical patients.

A novel nomogram and risk classification system based on inflammatory and immune indicators for predicting prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients with liver metastases.

BACKGROUND: The study determined to construct a novel predictive nomogram to access the prognosis of pancreatic cancer patients with liver metastases (PCLM). METHODS: Medical records included clinical and laboratory variables were collected. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohort. First, in the training cohort, the optimal cutoff value of SII, PNI, NLR, PLR were obtained. Then the survival analysis evaluated the effects of above indices on OS. Next, univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the independent factors of OS. Moreover, a nomogram was constructed based on LASSO cox analysis. Additionally, the predictive efficacy of the nomogram was evaluated by ROC curve and calibration curve in the training and validation cohort. Finally, a risk stratification system based on the nomogram was performed. RESULTS: A total of 472 PCLM patients were enrolled in the study. The optimal cutoff values of SII, PNI, PLR and NLR were 372, 43.6, 285.7143 and 1.48, respectively. By combing SII and PNI, named coSII-PNI, we divided the patients into three groups. The Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated above indices were correlated with OS. Univariate and multivariate analyses found the independent prognostic factors of OS. Through LASSO cox analysis, coSII-PNI, PNI, NLR, CA199, CEA, chemotherapy and gender were used to construct the nomogram. Lastly, the ROC curve and calibration curve demonstrated that the nomogram can predict prognosis of PCLM patients. Significant differences were observed between high and low groups. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram based on immune, inflammation, nutritional status and other clinical factors can accurately predict OS of PCLM patients.

A competing risk-based nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in patients with retroperitoneal leiomyosarcoma.

Considering the rarity and aggressive nature of retroperitoneal leiomyosarcoma (RLMS), several prognostic factors might contribute to the cancer-specific mortality of these patients. This study aimed to construct a competing risk-based nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) for patients with RLMS. In total, 788 cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2000-2015) were included. Based on the Fine & Gray's method, independent predictors were screened to develop a nomogram for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS. After multivariate analysis, CSS was found significantly associated with tumor characteristics (tumor grade, size, range), as well as surgery status. The nomogram showed solid prediction power and was well calibrated. Through decision curve analysis (DCA), a favorable clinical utility of the nomogram was demonstrated. Additionally, a risk stratification system was developed and distinctive survival between risk groups was observed. In summary, this nomogram showed a better performance than the AJCC 8th staging system and can assist in the clinical management of RLMS.

A novel clinical tool to predict cancer-specific survival in patients with primary pelvic sarcomas: A large population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Primary osseous sarcoma of the pelvis is rare and has a particularly sinister outcome. This study aims to identify independent prognostic factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with primary pelvic sarcoma (PS) and develop a nomogram to predict 3-, 5-, and 10-year probability of CSS in these patients. METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify 416 patients with primary PS, who were divided into two groups: a training cohort and a validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen independent prognostic factors in patients with primary PS. Based on these independent prognostic factors, a prognostic nomogram was developed to predict 3-, 5-, and 10-year probability of CSS. The nomogram's predictive performance and clinical value were evaluated using the calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, a mortality risk stratification system was developed. RESULTS: Tumor size, tumor stage, histological type, surgery, and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors for the CSS of primary PS patients. Based on these factors, a nomogram was created to predict the 3-, 5-, and 10-year probability of CSS in these patients. The calibration curve, ROC, and DCA indicated that the nomogram performed well and was appropriate for clinical use, with 3-, 5-, and 10-year areas under ROC curve all higher than 0.800. Furthermore, the nomogram-based mortality risk stratification system could effectively divide these patients into three risk subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram constructed in this study could accurately predict 3-, 5-, and 10-year probability of CSS in patients with primary PS. Clinicians can use the nomogram to categorize these patients into risk subgroups and provide personalized treatment plans.

Ultrasound features and risk stratification system in NIFT-P and other follicular-patterned thyroid tumors.

OBJECTIVE: Noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFT-P) is an encapsulated follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with nonaggressive clinical behavior. However, since its diagnosis is exclusively possible after surgery, it represents a clinical challenge. Neck ultrasound (US) shows good sensitivity and specificity in suggesting malignancy in thyroid nodules. However, little information is available about its ability in identifying NIFT-P. DESIGN: The aim of this study was to evaluate the US features of NIFT-P, comparing them with other follicular-patterned thyroid tumors, and to test the ability of the main US risk stratification system (RSS) in identifying NIFT-P. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated 403 consecutive patients submitted to thyroid surgery, with positive histology for at least 1 nodule being NIFT-P, follicular variant of PTC (FV-PTC), follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC), or follicular adenoma (FA). RESULTS: The US features of NIFT-P (n = 116), FV-PTC (n = 170), FTC (n = 76), and FA (n = 90) were reported. Follicular variant of PTC and FTC more frequently showed irregular margins, presence of calcifications, "taller than wide" shape, and the absence of halo compared with NIFT-P. Furthermore, FTC and also FA were larger and more frequently hypoechoic than NIFT-P. Most cases (77%) showed an indeterminate cytology. Regardless of the US RSS considered, NIFT-P and FA were less frequently classified in the high-suspicious category compared with FV-PTC and FTC. CONCLUSIONS: Ultrasound features of NIFT-P are frequently superimposable to those of nodules with low suspicion of malignancy. The NIFT-P is almost never classified in the high-suspicious category according to the main US RSS. Therefore, although the preoperative identification of NIFT-P remains a challenge, neck US can be integrated in the algorithm of management of nodules with indeterminate cytology, suggesting a possible conservative approach in those with low-suspicious features.

SEER-based risk stratification system for patients with primary non-cirrhotic liver cancer.

BACKGROUND: Little research has been done on the factors affecting the survival of patients with non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC-NCL). Our aim was to develop and validate a nomogram and a new risk stratification system that can evaluate overall survival (OS) in HCC-NCL patients. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2019 to study HCC-NCL patients. The patients were randomly split into training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio and subjected to single-factor and multi-factor COX regression analysis. We then developed a nomogram and evaluated its accuracy and clinical validity using time-dependent ROC, DCA, and calibration curves. We compared the nomogram with the AJCC staging system by calculating C-index, NRI, and IDI. Finally, we used Kaplan-Meier curves to compare the nomogram and AJCC staging. These analyses were performed without altering the original intended meaning. RESULTS: AFP levels, surgical intervention, T-stage, tumor size, and M-stage were independent prognostic indicators for overall survival among the HCC-NCL population studied. We developed a nomogram based on these factors, and time-dependent ROC, calibration curves, DCA analyses, and C-index proved its accuracy. Compared to the AJCC staging system, the nomogram showed better prognostic accuracy through time-dependent ROC, DCA analyses, C-index, NRI, IDI, and Kaplan-Meier curves. CONCLUSION: We have developed and validated a survival nomogram applicable to HCC-NCL patients, with risk stratification. Our nomogram offers personalized treatment and management options superior to those provided by the AJCC staging system.

Two novel clinical tools to predict the risk of bone metastasis and overall survival in esophageal cancer patients: a large population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to construct two web-based nomograms to predict the probability of bone metastasis (BM) in esophageal cancer (EC) patients and the prognostic of EC patients with BM (ECBM). METHODS: We collected the data of EC and ECBM patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015. Independent risk variables for the development of BM in EC patients were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to assess independent prognostic variables in ECBM patients. And then, constructed two nomograms to predict the risk of bone metastases and overall survival (OS) of ECBM patients. Survival differences were studied by Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis. The predictive efficacy and clinical applicability of these two nomograms were assessed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: We selected a total of 6839 patients with EC, of which 326 (4.77%) had BM at the time of initial diagnosis. The results of K-M survival and Cox regression analysis showed significant effects of BM on the OS in EC patients. Age, N stage, tumor size and brain/liver/lung organ metastasis were identified as BM-related risk variables. Chemotherapy and brain/liver organ metastasis were identified as ECBM-related prognostic variables. The ROC, AUC, calibration curves and DCA of two nomograms all showed excellent predictive efficacy and clinical applicability. CONCLUSIONS: These two nomograms were constructed and validated, which could objectively predict the risk of BM in EC patients and the prognostic in ECBM patients. These tools are expected to make valuable contributions in clinical work, informing surgeons in making decisions about patient care.

Independent Prognostic Factors and Nomogram Prediction of Cancer-Specific Survival in Postoperative Patients With Spinal Cord Astrocytoma.

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. OBJECTIVE: Spinal cord astrocytoma (SCA) is a rare central nervous system malignancy that typically requires early surgical intervention. However, the substantial frequency of relapse and bad outcomes limit the surgical advantage for patients. Herein, we aimed to determine the independent prognostic factors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in post-surgical patients with primary SCA and to develop a new method to estimate the chances of CSS in these patients at 3-, 5- and 10-year. METHODS: A total of 364 postoperative patients with SCA were recruited from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly assigned to the training and validation sets. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression assessments were used to identify independent prognostic indicators. Second, a nomogram was established by integrating these indicators to estimate 3-, 5-, and 10-year CSS in patients with SCA who underwent surgery. Subsequently, the discriminatory power and predictive performance of the nomogram were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, a mortality risk stratification system was generated. RESULTS: Age, tumor stage, histological type, and radiotherapy were recognized as potential predictive indicators of CSS for postoperative patients with SCA. The ROC curve and DCA indicate that the nomogram has good accuracy and high clinical utility. Furthermore, the mortality risk stratification system efficiently divides patients into 3 risk subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram could accurately anticipate the 3-, 5-, and 10-year percentages of CSS in postoperative patients with SCA. It could assist clinicians with personalized medical counseling, risk stratification management, and clinical decision-making, improving the clinical outcomes of these patients.

The clinical characteristics, novel predictive tool, and risk classification system for primary Ewing sarcoma patients that underwent chemotherapy: A large population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to determine the independent prognostic predictors of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with primary Ewing sarcoma (ES) that underwent chemotherapy and create a novel prognostic nomogram and risk stratification system. METHODS: Demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics related to patients with primary ES that underwent chemotherapy between 2000 and 2018 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. CSS was the primary endpoint of this study. First, independent prognostic predictors of CSS identified from univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to construct a prognostic nomogram for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS of patients with primary ES that underwent chemotherapy. Then, calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the nomogram's prediction accuracy, while decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the nomogram's clinical utility. Finally, a mortality risk stratification system was constructed for this subpopulation. RESULTS: A total of 393 patients were included in this study. Age, tumor size, bone metastasis, and surgery were independent prognostic predictors of CSS. The calibration curves, ROC, and DCA showed that the nomogram had excellent discrimination and clinical value, with the 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs higher than 0.700. Moreover, the mortality risk stratification system could effectively divide all patients into three risk subgroups and achieve targeted patient management. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the SEER database, a novel prognostic nomogram for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5- year CSS in patients with primary ES that underwent chemotherapy has been constructed and validated. The nomogram showed relatively good performance, which could be used in clinical practice to assist clinicians in individualized treatment strategies.

Construction of a novel clinical nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in patients with primary malignant adrenal tumors: a large population-based retrospective study.

Background: Primary malignant adrenal tumors were rare and had a poor prognosis. This investigation aimed to create a useful clinical prediction nomogram to anticipate cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with a primary malignant adrenal tumor. Method: This study included 1748 patients with malignant adrenal tumor diagnoses subjects from 2000 to 2019. These subjects were allocated randomly into training (70%) and validation (30%) cohorts. Patients with adrenal tumors underwent univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to identify the CSS-independent predictive biomarkers. Therefore, a nomogram was created depending on those predictors, and calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the calibration capacity of the nomogram, discriminative power, and clinical efficiency, respectively. Afterward, a risk system for categorizing patients with adrenal tumors was established. Result: The univariate and multivariate Cox analysis demonstrated the CSS-independent predictive factors, including age, tumor stage, size, histological type, and surgery. As a result, a nomogram was developed using these variables. For the 3-, 5-, and 10-year CSS of this nomogram, the values of the area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curves were 0.829, 0.827, and 0.822, respectively. Furthermore, the AUC values of the nomogram were higher than those of the individual independent prognostic components of CSS, indicating that the nomogram had stronger prognostic prediction reliability. A novel risk stratification method was created to further improve patient stratification and give clinical professionals a better reference for clinical decision-making. Conclusion: Through the developed nomogram and risk stratification method, the CSS of patients with malignant adrenal tumors could be predicted more precisely, assisting physicians to differentiate patients better and creating personalized treatment strategies to optimize patient benefits.

Comparison of Various Ultrasound-Based Malignant Risk Stratification Systems on an Occasion for Assessing Thyroid Nodules in Hashimoto's Thyroiditis.

Purpose: To compare the diagnostic performance and unnecessary ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (US-FNA) biopsy rate of the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA), 2016 Korean Society of Thyroid Radiology (KSThR), and 2017 American College of Radiology (ACR) guidelines for patients with and without Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT). Patients and Methods: This retrospective study included 716 nodules from 696 consecutive patients, which were classified using the categories defined by the three guidelines: ATA, KSThR, and ACR. The malignancy risk in each category was calculated and the diagnostic performance and unnecessary fine-needle aspiration (FNA) rates of the three guidelines were compared. Results: In total, 426 malignant and 290 benign nodules were identified. Patients with malignant nodules had lower total thyroxine levels and higher thyroid-stimulating hormone, thyroid peroxidase antibody, and thyroglobulin antibody levels than those without malignant nodules (all P<0.01). The margin difference was significant in non-HT patients (P<0.01), but comparable in HT patients (P=0.55). The calculated malignancy risks of high and intermediate suspicion nodules in the ATA and KSThR guidelines and moderately suspicious nodules in the ACR guidelines were significantly lower in non-HT patients compared with HT patients (P<0.05). The ACR guidelines showed the lowest sensitivity, highest specificity, and lowest unnecessary FNA rates in patients with and without HT. Compared to non-HT patients, HT patients had significantly lower unnecessary FNA rates (P<0.01). Conclusion: HT was associated with a higher malignancy rate of thyroid nodules with intermediate suspicion according to the ATA, KSThR, and ACR guidelines. The three guidelines, especially ACR, were likely to be more effective and could allow a greater reduction in the percentage of benign nodules biopsied in patients with HT.