Arctic halogens reduce ozone in the northern mid-latitudes.

While the dominant role of halogens in Arctic ozone loss during spring has been widely studied in the last decades, the impact of sea-ice halogens on surface ozone abundance over the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes remains unquantified. Here, we use a state-of-the-art global chemistry-climate model including polar halogens (Cl, Br, and I), which reproduces Arctic ozone seasonality, to show that Arctic sea-ice halogens reduce surface ozone in the NH mid-latitudes (47°N to 60°N) by ~11% during spring. This background ozone reduction follows the southward export of ozone-poor and halogen-rich air masses from the Arctic through polar front intrusions toward lower latitudes, reducing the springtime tropospheric ozone column within the NH mid-latitudes by ~4%. Our results also show that the present-day influence of Arctic halogens on surface ozone destruction is comparatively smaller than in preindustrial times driven by changes in the chemical interplay between anthropogenic pollution and natural halogens. We conclude that the impact of Arctic sea-ice halogens on NH mid-latitude ozone abundance should be incorporated into global models to improve the representation of ozone seasonality.

Emerging long-term trends and interdecadal cycles in Antarctic polynyas.

Polynyas, areas of open water embedded within sea ice, are a key component of ocean-atmosphere interactions that act as hotspots of sea-ice production, bottom-water formation, and primary productivity. The specific drivers of polynya dynamics remain, however, elusive and coupled climate models struggle to replicate Antarctic polynya activity. Here, we leverage a 44-y time series of Antarctic sea ice to elucidate long-term trends. We identify Antarctic-wide linear increases and a hitherto undescribed cyclical pattern of polynya activity across the Ross Sea region that potentially arises from interactions between the Amundsen Sea Low and Southern Annular Mode. While their specific drivers remain unknown, identifying these emerging patterns augments our capacity to understand the processes that influence sea ice. As we enter a potentially new age of Antarctic sea ice, this advance in understanding will, in turn, lead to more accurate predictions of environmental change, and its implications for Antarctic ecosystems.

Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage.

The ongoing and projected retreat of Arctic sea ice has garnered international interest toward the utilization of Arctic maritime corridors for shipping, tourism, and development. Yet, with potential for increasing traffic in Arctic regions, it's important to consider additional environmental variables affected by climate change which may threaten maritime operations. Here, we use four climate model projections to produce ocean wave simulations and investigate the future magnitude and seasonality of sea ice risk coupled with wave hazards. Analyzing the potential 5 mo shipping season spanning July to November along the Northwest Passage maritime route between 2020 and 2070, our results show a substantial decline in sea ice risk over the analysis time period, resulting in near open-water conditions along the route for a 5 mo period by 2070. However, as seasonal ice coverage retreats, there is a significant upward trend in wave heights along the route during July and November, with the timing of the greatest wave height shifting away from September toward later in the season. This result is pertinent as the possibility of seasonally unprecedented extreme waves coupled with subfreezing late fall temperatures makes for an especially hazardous environment, thus emphasizing the importance of considering the interaction between evolving sea ice and interdependent hazards when predicting the risks and challenges faced by Arctic maritime operations.

The Montreal Protocol is delaying the occurrence of the first ice-free Arctic summer.

The rapid melting of Arctic sea ice is the largest and clearest signal of anthropogenic climate change. Current projections indicate that the first ice-free Arctic summer will likely occur by mid-century, owing to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. However, other powerful greenhouse gases have also contributed to Arctic sea ice loss, notably ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). In the late 1980s, ODSs became strictly regulated by the Montreal Protocol, and their atmospheric concentrations have been declining since the mid-1990s. Here, analyzing new climate model simulations, we demonstrate that the Montreal Protocol, designed to protect the ozone layer, is delaying the first appearance of an ice-free Arctic summer, by up to 15 y, depending on future emissions. We also show that this important climate mitigation stems entirely from the reduced greenhouse gas warming from the regulated ODSs, with the avoided stratospheric ozone losses playing no role. Finally, we estimate that each Gg of averted ODS emissions results in approximately 7 km2 of avoided Arctic sea ice loss.

Ice and ocean constraints on early human migrations into North America along the Pacific coast.

Founding populations of the first Americans likely occupied parts of Beringia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The timing, pathways, and modes of their southward transit remain unknown, but blockage of the interior route by North American ice sheets between ~26 and 14 cal kyr BP (ka) favors a coastal route during this period. Using models and paleoceanographic data from the North Pacific, we identify climatically favorable intervals when humans could have plausibly traversed the Cordilleran coastal corridor during the terminal Pleistocene. Model simulations suggest that northward coastal currents strengthened during the LGM and at times of enhanced freshwater input, making southward transit by boat more difficult. Repeated Cordilleran glacial-calving events would have further challenged coastal transit on land and at sea. Following these events, ice-free coastal areas opened and seasonal sea ice was present along the Alaskan margin until at least 15 ka. Given evidence for humans south of the ice sheets by 16 ka and possibly earlier, we posit that early people may have taken advantage of winter sea ice that connected islands and coastal refugia. Marine ice-edge habitats offer a rich food supply and traversing coastal sea ice could have mitigated the difficulty of traveling southward in watercraft or on land over glaciers. We identify 24.5 to 22 ka and 16.4 to 14.8 ka as environmentally favorable time periods for coastal migration, when climate conditions provided both winter sea ice and ice-free summer conditions that facilitated year-round marine resource diversity and multiple modes of mobility along the North Pacific coast.

The interaction of ice and law in Arctic marine accessibility.

Sea ice levies an impost on maritime navigability in the Arctic, but ice cover diminution due to anthropogenic climate change is generating expectations for improved accessibility in coming decades. Projections of sea ice cover retreating preferentially from the eastern Arctic suggest key provisions of international law of the sea will require revision. Specifically, protections against marine pollution in ice-covered seas enshrined in Article 234 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea have been used in recent decades to extend jurisdictional competence over the Northern Sea Route only loosely associated with environmental outcomes. Projections show that plausible open water routes through international waters may be accessible by midcentury under all but the most aggressive of emissions control scenarios. While inter- and intraannual variability places the economic viability of these routes in question for some time, the inevitability of a seasonally ice-free Arctic will be attended by a reduction of regulatory friction and a recalibration of associated legal frameworks.

Atmospheric forcing dominates winter Barents-Kara sea ice variability on interannual to decadal time scales.

The last two decades have seen a dramatic decline and strong year-to-year variability in Arctic winter sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), changes that have been linked to extreme midlatitude weather and climate. It has been suggested that these changes in winter sea ice arise largely from a combined effect of oceanic and atmospheric processes, but the relative importance of these processes is not well established. Here, we explore the role of atmospheric circulation patterns on BKS winter sea ice variability and trends using observations and climate model simulations. We find that BKS winter sea ice variability is primarily driven by a strong anticyclonic anomaly over the region, which explains more than 50% of the interannual variability in BKS sea-ice concentration (SIC). Recent intensification of the anticyclonic anomaly has warmed and moistened the lower atmosphere in the BKS by poleward transport of moist-static energy and local processes, resulting in an increase in downwelling longwave radiation. Our results demonstrate that the observed BKS winter sea-ice variability is primarily driven by atmospheric, rather than oceanic, processes and suggest a persistent role of atmospheric forcing in future Arctic winter sea ice loss.

Sea ice fluctuations in the Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea during glacial abrupt climate changes.

Sea ice decline in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas has been proposed to contribute to the repeated abrupt atmospheric warmings recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial period, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. However, the understanding of how sea ice changes were coupled with abrupt climate changes during D-O events has remained incomplete due to a lack of suitable high-resolution sea ice proxy records from northwestern North Atlantic regions. Here, we present a subdecadal-scale bromine enrichment (Brenr) record from the NEEM ice core (Northwest Greenland) and sediment core biomarker records to reconstruct the variability of seasonal sea ice in the Baffin Bay and Labrador Sea over a suite of D-O events between 34 and 42 ka. Our results reveal repeated shifts between stable, multiyear sea ice (MYSI) conditions during cold stadials and unstable, seasonal sea ice conditions during warmer interstadials. The shift from stadial to interstadial sea ice conditions occurred rapidly and synchronously with the atmospheric warming over Greenland, while the amplitude of high-frequency sea ice fluctuations increased through interstadials. Our findings suggest that the rapid replacement of widespread MYSI with seasonal sea ice amplified the abrupt climate warming over the course of D-O events and highlight the role of feedbacks associated with late-interstadial seasonal sea ice expansion in driving the North Atlantic ocean-climate system back to stadial conditions.

Assessing the risk of climate maladaptation for Canadian polar bears.

The Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, threatening the persistence of many Arctic species. It is uncertain if Arctic wildlife will have sufficient time to adapt to such rapidly warming environments. We used genetic forecasting to measure the risk of maladaptation to warming temperatures and sea ice loss in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled across the Canadian Arctic. We found evidence for local adaptation to sea ice conditions and temperature. Forecasting of genome-environment mismatches for predicted climate scenarios suggested that polar bears in the Canadian high Arctic had the greatest risk of becoming maladapted to climate warming. While Canadian high Arctic bears may be the most likely to become maladapted, all polar bears face potentially negative outcomes to climate change. Given the importance of the sea ice habitat to polar bears, we expect that maladaptation to future warming is already widespread across Canada.

Seasonal variation in the stomach microbiota of two sympatrically breeding Pygoscelis penguin species at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

The gut microbiomes of Antarctic penguins are important for the fitness of the host birds and their chicks. The compositions of microbial communities in Antarctic penguin guts are strongly associated with the birds' diet, physiological adaptation and phylogeny. Whilst seasonal changes in food resources, distribution and population parameters of Antarctic penguins have been well addressed, little research is available on the stability or variability of penguin stomach microbiomes over time. Here, we focused on two Pygoscelis penguin species breeding sympatrically in the maritime Antarctic and analysed their stomach contents to assess whether penguin gut microbiota differed over three austral summer breeding seasons. We used a high-throughput DNA sequencing approach to study bacterial diversity in stomach regurgitates of Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae) and chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) penguins that have a similar foraging regime on Signy Island (South Orkney Islands). Our data revealed significant differences in bacterial alpha and beta diversity between the study seasons. We also identified bacterial genera that were significantly associated with specific breeding seasons, diet compositions, chick-rearing stages and sampling events. This study provides a baseline for establishing future monitoring of penguin gut microbiomes in a rapidly changing environment.

Extended ozone depletion and reduced snow and ice cover-Consequences for Antarctic biota.

Stratospheric ozone, which has been depleted in recent decades by the release of anthropogenic gases, is critical for shielding the biosphere against ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation. Although the ozone layer is expected to recover before the end of the 21st century, a hole over Antarctica continues to appear each year. Ozone depletion usually peaks between September and October, when fortunately, most Antarctic terrestrial vegetation and soil biota is frozen, dormant and protected under snow cover. Similarly, much marine life is protected by sea ice cover. The ozone hole used to close before the onset of Antarctic summer, meaning that most biota were not exposed to severe springtime UV-B fluxes. However, in recent years, ozone depletion has persisted into December, which marks the beginning of austral summer. Early summertime ozone depletion is concerning: high incident UV-B radiation coincident with snowmelt and emergence of vegetation will mean biota is more exposed. The start of summer is also peak breeding season for many animals, thus extreme UV-B exposure (UV index up to 14) may come at a vulnerable time in their life cycle. Climate change, including changing wind patterns and strength, and particularly declining sea ice, are likely to compound UV-B exposure of Antarctic organisms, through earlier ice and snowmelt, heatwaves and droughts. Antarctic field research conducted decades ago tended to study UV impacts in isolation and more research that considers multiple climate impacts, and the true magnitude and timing of current UV increases is needed.

Pacific salmon in the Canadian Arctic highlight a range-expansion pathway for sub-Arctic fishes.

Rapid climate change is altering Arctic ecosystems at unprecedented rates. These changes in the physical environment may open new corridors for species range expansions, with substantial implications for subsistence-dependent communities and sensitive ecosystems. Over the past 20 years, rising incidental harvest of Pacific salmon by subsistence fishers has been monitored across a widening range spanning multiple land claim jurisdictions in Arctic Canada. In this study, we connect Indigenous and scientific knowledges to explore potential oceanographic mechanisms facilitating this ongoing northward expansion of Pacific salmon into the western Canadian Arctic. A regression analysis was used to reveal and characterize a two-part mechanism related to thermal and sea-ice conditions in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas that explains nearly all of the variation in the relative abundance of salmon observed within this region. The results indicate that warmer late-spring temperatures in a Chukchi Sea watch-zone and persistent, suitable summer thermal conditions in a Beaufort Sea watch-zone together create a range-expansion corridor and are associated with higher salmon occurrences in subsistence harvests. Furthermore, there is a body of knowledge to suggest that these conditions, and consequently the presence and abundance of Pacific salmon, will become more persistent in the coming decades. Our collaborative approach positions us to document, explore, and explain mechanisms driving changes in fish biodiversity that have the potential to, or are already affecting, Indigenous rights-holders in a rapidly warming Arctic.

Single-cell DNA from West Greenland marine sediments suggests presence of Protoperidinium tricingulatum in the Arctic.

Spiny brown dinoflagellate cysts are commonly used as sea-ice indicators in the Arctic, but their biological affinities are not well known. We present the first indication of hitherto temperate Protoperidinium tricingulatum in the Arctic based on single-cell LSU rDNA sequencing from sediments of the Disko Bay-Vaigat Sound, West Greenland. The morphological similarity of the sequenced cyst morphotype to the sea-ice indicator Islandinium? cezare morphotype 1 is striking. The morphology of the isolated cysts, as well as those observed in the total cyst assemblage following standard palynological preparation, both resemble either I.? cezare morphotype 1 or P. tricingulatum, suggesting that the specimens may in fact be close morphological variants of the same species. In addition, nine LSU rDNA sequences were obtained from morphological variants assigned to Islandinium minutum s.l.: including both subspecies minutum and subspecies barbatum. The two subspecies could not be differentiated based on partial LSU rDNA sequencing. Overall, Arctic spiny brown dinoflagellate cyst species may be morphologically more diverse and taxonomically more complex than shown earlier and further genetic and morphological studies are needed. Importantly, the value of cysts as palaeoecological indicators depends on a sound understanding of their biological affinity and taxonomy.

Amundsen Sea Ice Loss Contributes to Australian Wildfires.

Wildfires in Australia have attracted extensive attention in recent years, especially for the devastating 2019-2020 fire season. Remote forcing, such as those from tropical oceans, plays an important role in driving the abnormal weather conditions associated with wildfires. However, whether high latitude climate change can impact Australian fires is largely unclear. In this study, we reveal a robust relationship between Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC), primarily over the Amundsen Sea region, with Australian springtime fire activity, by using reanalysis data sets, AMIP simulation results, and a state-of-the-art climate model simulation. Specifically, a diminished Amundsen SIC leads to the formation of a high-pressure system above Australia as a result of the eastward propagation of Rossby waves. Meanwhile, two strengthened meridional cells originating from the tropic and polar regions also enhance subsiding airflow in Australia, resulting in prolonged arid and high-temperature conditions. This mechanism explains about 28% of the variability of Australian fire weather and contributed more than 40% to the 2019 extreme burning event, especially in the eastern hotspots. These findings contribute to our understanding of polar-low latitude climate teleconnection and have important implications for projecting Australian fires as well as the global environment.

Regulation of Ocean Surface Currents and Seasonal Sea Ice Variations on the Occurrence and Transport of Organophosphate Esters in the Central Arctic Ocean.

Organophosphate esters (OPEs) have been observed in the remote Arctic Ocean, yet the influence of hydrodynamics and seasonal sea ice variations on the occurrence and transport of waterborne OPEs remains unclear. This study comprehensively examines OPEs in surface seawater of the central Arctic Ocean during the summer of 2020, integrating surface ocean current and sea ice concentration data. The results confirm significant spatiotemporal variations of the OPEs, with the total concentration of seven major OPEs averaging 780 ± 970 pg/L. Chlorinated OPEs, particularly tris(1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TCPP), were dominant. The significant impact of hydrodynamics on the OPE transport is demonstrated by higher OPE concentrations in regions with strong surface currents, especially at the edge of the Beaufort Gyre and the confluence of the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift. Furthermore, OPE levels were generally higher in drifting-ice-covered regions compared to ice-free regions, attributed to the volatilization of dissolved OPEs formerly trapped below the sea ice or newly released from melting snow and sea ice. Notably, TCPP decreased by only 19% in the ice-free area, while the more volatile triphenyl phosphate decreased by 63% compared with the partial ice region.

Paralabilibaculum antarcticum gen. nov., sp. nov., an anaerobic marine bacterium of the family Marinifilaceae isolated from Antarctica sea ice.

A novel bacterial strain, designated DW002T, was isolated from the sea ice of Cape Evans, McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Cells of the strain were Gram-negative, obligate anaerobic, motile, non-flagellated, and short rod-shaped. The strain DW002T grew at 4-32 â„ƒ (optimum at 22-28 â„ƒ) and thrived best at pH 7.0, NaCl concentration of 2.5% (w/v). The predominant isoprenoid quinone of strain DW002T was menaquinone-7 (MK-7). The major fatty acids (> 10%) of DW002T were iso-C15:0, anteiso-C15:0 and iso-C17:1ω9c. The predominant polar lipids of strain DW002T contained two phosphatidylethanolamines, one unidentified glycolipid, one unidentified aminolipid and four unidentified lipids. The DNA G + C content of the strain DW002T was 34.8%. Strain DW002T encoded 237 carbohydrate-active enzymes. The strain DW002T had genes associated with dissimilatory nitrate reduction and assimilatory sulfate reduction metabolic pathways. Based on distinct physiological, chemotaxonomic, genome analysis and phylogenetic differences compared to other members of the phylogenetically related genera in the family Marinifilaceae, strain DW002T is proposed to represent a novel genus within the family. Therefore, the name Paralabilibaculum antarcticum gen. nov., sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is DW002T (=KCTC 25274T=MCCC 1K06067T).

GBDT Method Integrating Feature-Enhancement and Active-Learning Strategies-Sea Ice Thickness Inversion in Beaufort Sea.

Sea ice, as an important component of the Earth's ecosystem, has a profound impact on global climate and human activities due to its thickness. Therefore, the inversion of sea ice thickness has important research significance. Due to environmental and equipment-related limitations, the number of samples available for remote sensing inversion is currently insufficient. At high spatial resolutions, remote sensing data contain limited information and noise interference, which seriously affect the accuracy of sea ice thickness inversion. In response to the above issues, we conducted experiments using ice draft data from the Beaufort Sea and designed an improved GBDT method that integrates feature-enhancement and active-learning strategies (IFEAL-GBDT). In this method, the incident angle and time series are used to perform spatiotemporal correction of the data, reducing both temporal and spatial impacts. Meanwhile, based on the original polarization information, effective multi-attribute features are generated to expand the information content and improve the separability of sea ice with different thicknesses. Taking into account the growth cycle and age of sea ice, attributes were added for month and seawater temperature. In addition, we studied an active learning strategy based on the maximum standard deviation to select more informative and representative samples and improve the model's generalization ability. The improved GBDT model was used for training and prediction, offering advantages in dealing with nonlinear, high-dimensional data, and data noise problems, further expanding the effectiveness of feature-enhancement and active-learning strategies. Compared with other methods, the method proposed in this paper achieves the best inversion accuracy, with an average absolute error of 8 cm and a root mean square error of 13.7 cm for IFEAL-GBDT and a correlation coefficient of 0.912. This research proves the effectiveness of our method, which is suitable for the high-precision inversion of sea ice thickness determined using Sentinel-1 data.

Insights into the diet and feeding behavior of immature polar cod (Boreogadus saida) from the under-ice habitat of the central Arctic Ocean.

Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) is an endemic key species of the Arctic Ocean ecosystem. The ecology of this forage fish is well studied in Arctic shelf habitats where a large part of its population lives. However, knowledge about its ecology in the central Arctic Ocean (CAO), including its use of the sea-ice habitat, is hitherto very limited. To increase this knowledge, samples were collected at the under-ice surface during several expeditions to the CAO between 2012 and 2020, including the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. The diet of immature B. saida and the taxonomic composition of their potential prey were analysed, showing that both sympagic and pelagic species were important prey items. Stomach contents included expected prey such as copepods and amphipods. Surprisingly, more rarely observed prey such as appendicularians, chaetognaths, and euphausiids were also found to be important. Comparisons of the fish stomach contents with prey distribution data suggests opportunistic feeding. However, relative prey density and catchability are important factors that determine which type of prey is ingested. Prey that ensures limited energy expenditure on hunting and feeding is often found in the stomach contents even though it is not the dominant species present in the environment. To investigate the importance of prey quality and quantity for the growth of B. saida in this area, we measured energy content of dominant prey species and used a bioenergetic model to quantify the effect of variations in diet on growth rate potential. The modeling results suggest that diet variability was largely explained by stomach fullness and, to a lesser degree, the energetic content of the prey. Our results suggest that under climate change, immature B. saida may be at least equally sensitive to a loss in the number of efficiently hunted prey than to a reduction in the prey's energy content. Consequences for the growth and survival of B. saida will not depend on prey presence alone, but also on prey catchability, digestibility, and energy content.

Increased sea ice melt as a driver of enhanced Arctic phytoplankton blooming.

Phytoplankton primary production in the Arctic Ocean has been increasing over the last two decades. In 2019, a record spring bloom occurred in Fram Strait, characterized by a peak in chlorophyll that was reached weeks earlier than in other years and was larger than any previously recorded May bloom. Here, we consider the conditions that led to this event and examine drivers of spring phytoplankton blooms in Fram Strait using in situ, remote sensing, and data assimilation methods. From samples collected during the May 2019 bloom, we observe a direct relationship between sea ice meltwater in the upper water column and chlorophyll a pigment concentrations. We place the 2019 spring dynamics in context of the past 20 years, a period marked by rapid change in climatic conditions. Our findings suggest that increased advection of sea ice into the region and warmer surface temperatures led to a rise in meltwater input and stronger near-surface stratification. Over this time period, we identify large-scale spatial correlations in Fram Strait between increased chlorophyll a concentrations and increased freshwater flux from sea ice melt.

Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration.

Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st-century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non-breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End-of-century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi-model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: 'middle-of-the-road' and 'fossil-fuelled development' scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a 'fossil-fuelled development' scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s-1 ) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end-of-century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species.