Oxycodone initiation in Australia (2014-2018): Sociodemographic factors and preceding health service use.

AIMS: Oxycodone is the most commonly prescribed strong opioid in Australia. This study describes health service antecedents and sociodemographic factors associated with oxycodone initiation. METHODS: Population-based new user cohort study linking medicine dispensings, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, medical services and cancer notifications from New South Wales (NSW) for 2014-2018. New users had no dispensings of any opioid in the preceding year. We analysed health service use in the 5 days preceding initiation and proportion of people on treatment over 1 year and fitted an area-based, multivariable initiation model with sociodemographic covariates. RESULTS: Oxycodone accounted for 30% of opioid initiations. Annually, 3% of the NSW population initiated oxycodone, and 5-6% were prevalent users; the new user cohort comprised 830 963 people. Discharge from hospital (39.3%), therapeutic procedures (21.4%) and emergency department visits (19.7%) were common; a hospital admission for injury (6.0%) or a past-year history of cancer (7.2%) were less common. At 1 year after initiation, 4.6% of people were using oxycodone. In the multivariable model, new use of oxycodone increased with age and was higher for people outside major cities, for example, an incidence rate ratio of 1.43 (95% confidence interval 1.36-1.51) for inner regional areas relative to major cities; there was no evidence of variation in rates of new use by social disadvantage. CONCLUSION: About half of new oxycodone use in NSW was preceded by a recent episode of hospital care or a therapeutic procedure. Higher rates of oxycodone initiation in rural and regional areas were not explained by sociodemographic factors.

Estimation and probabilistic projection of age- and sex-specific mortality rates across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2030.

BACKGROUND: Mortality rate estimation in small areas can be difficult due the low number of events/exposure (i.e. stochastic error). If the death records are not completed, it adds a systematic uncertainty on the mortality estimates. Previous studies in Brazil have combined demographic and statistical methods to partially overcome these issues. We estimated age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all 5,565 Brazilian municipalities in 2010 and forecasted probabilistic mortality rates and life expectancy between 2010 and 2030. METHODS: We used a combination of the Tool for Projecting Age-Specific Rates Using Linear Splines (TOPALS), Bayesian Model, Spatial Smoothing Model and an ad-hoc procedure to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities for 2010. Then we adapted the Lee-Carter model to forecast mortality rates by age and sex in all municipalities between 2010 and 2030. RESULTS: The adjusted sex- and age-specific mortality rates for all Brazilian municipalities in 2010 reveal a distinct regional pattern, showcasing a decrease in life expectancy in less socioeconomically developed municipalities when compared to estimates without adjustments. The forecasted mortality rates indicate varying regional improvements, leading to a convergence in life expectancy at birth among small areas in Brazil. Consequently, a reduction in the variability of age at death across Brazil's municipalities was observed, with a persistent sex differential. CONCLUSION: Mortality rates at a small-area level were successfully estimated and forecasted, with associated uncertainty estimates also generated for future life tables. Our approach could be applied across countries with data quality issues to improve public policy planning.

Development and implementation of a treatment pathway to reduce coronary angiograms - lessons from a failure.

BACKGROUND: The rates of coronary angiograms (CA) and related procedures (percutaneous intervention [PCI]) are significantly higher in Germany than in other Organisation for Economic Co-ordination and Development (OECD) countries. The current guidelines recommend non-invasive diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD); CA should only have a limited role in choosing the appropriate revascularisation procedure. The aim of the present study was to explore whether improvements in guideline adherence can be achieved through the implementation of regional treatment pathways. We chose four regions of Germany with high utilisation of CAs for the study. Here we report the results of the concomitant qualitative study. METHODS: General practitioners and specialist physicians (cardiologists, hospital-based cardiologists, emergency physicians, radiologists and nuclear medicine specialists) caring for patients with suspected CHD were invited to develop regional treatment pathways. Four academic departments provided support for moderation, provision of materials, etc. The study team observed session discussions and took notes. After the development of the treatment pathways, 45 semi-structured interviews were conducted with the participating physicians. Interviews and field notes were transcribed verbatim and underwent qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: Pathway development received little support among the participants. Although consensus documents were produced, the results were unlikely to improve practice. The participants expressed very little commitment to change. Although this attempt clearly failed in all study regions, our experience provides relevant insights into the process of evidence appraisal and implementation. A lack of organisational skills, ignorance of current evidence and guidelines, and a lack of feedback regarding one's own clinical behaviour proved to be insurmountable. CA was still seen as the diagnostic gold standard by most interviewees. CONCLUSIONS: Oversupply and overutilisation can be assumed to be present in study regions but are not immediately perceived by clinicians. The problem is unlikely to be solved by regional collaborative initiatives; optimised resource planning within the health care system combined with appropriate economic incentives might best address these issues.

Exploring the use of experimental small area estimates to examine the relationship between individual-level and area-level community belonging and self-rated health.

Background: Small area estimation refers to statistical modelling procedures that leverage information or "borrow strength" from other sources or variables. This is done to enhance the reliability of estimates of characteristics or outcomes for areas that do not contain sufficient sample sizes to provide disaggregated estimates of adequate precision and reliability. There is growing interest in secondary research applications for small area estimates (SAEs). However, it is crucial to assess the analytic value of these estimates when used as proxies for individual-level characteristics or as distinct measures that offer insights at the area level. This study assessed novel area-level community belonging measures derived using small area estimation and examined associations with individual-level measures of community belonging and self-rated health. Data and methods: SAEs of community belonging within census tracts produced from the 2016-2019 cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) were merged with respondent data from the 2020 CCHS. Multinomial logistic regression models were run between area-level SAEs, individual-level sense of community belonging, and self-rated health on the study sample of people aged 18 years and older. Results: Area-level community belonging was associated with individual-level community belonging, even after adjusting for individual-level sociodemographic characteristics, despite limited agreement between individual- and area-level measures. Living in a neighbourhood with low community belonging was associated with higher odds of reporting being in fair or poor health, versus being in very good or excellent health (odds ratio: 1.53; 95% confidence interval: 1.22, 1.91), even after adjusting for other factors such as individual-level sense of community belonging, which was also associated with self-rated health. Interpretation: Area-level and individual-level sense of community belonging were independently associated with self-rated health. The novel SAEs of community belonging can be used as distinct measures of neighbourhood-level community belonging and should be understood as complementary to, rather than proxies for, individual-level measures of community belonging.

Objective and subjective neighbourhood characteristics and suicidality: a multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND: Characteristics of the neighbourhood environment, including population density, social fragmentation, and trust, have been linked to mental health outcomes. Using a longitudinal population-based cohort, we explored the relationship between objective and subjective neighbourhood characteristics and the odds of suicidal thoughts and attempts. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal study of 20764 participants living in Stockholm County who participated in the Stockholm Public Health Survey. We used multilevel modelling to examine if suicidal thoughts and attempts were associated with neighbourhood characteristics, independent of individual associations. We included objective and subjective measures to explore if there was a different relationship between these measures of the neighbourhood environment and suicidality. RESULTS: Associations between neighbourhood factors and suicidality were predominantly explained by individual characteristics, with the exception of neighbourhood-level deprivation and average residential trust. Each unit increase of deprivation was linked to increased odds of suicidal thoughts [Odds ratio (OR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.07] and attempts (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06-1.17). Decreasing residential trust was associated with increased odds of suicide attempts (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02-1.17). There was no evidence that neighbourhood-level fragmentation or average trust in public and political institutions had an independent effect on suicidality once individual and sociodemographic factors were accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that much of the neighbourhood-level variation in suicidal thoughts and attempts could be explained by compositional factors, including sociodemographic clustering within neighbourhoods. The independent effect of neighbourhood-level deprivation and average residential trust provide evidence that the neighbourhood context may exert an independent effect on suicidality beyond the impact of individual characteristics.

Mapping the prevalence of cancer risk factors at the small area level in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a significant health issue globally and it is well known that cancer risk varies geographically. However in many countries there are no small area-level data on cancer risk factors with high resolution and complete reach, which hinders the development of targeted prevention strategies. METHODS: Using Australia as a case study, the 2017-2018 National Health Survey was used to generate prevalence estimates for 2221 small areas across Australia for eight cancer risk factor measures covering smoking, alcohol, physical activity, diet and weight. Utilising a recently developed Bayesian two-stage small area estimation methodology, the model incorporated survey-only covariates, spatial smoothing and hierarchical modelling techniques, along with a vast array of small area-level auxiliary data, including census, remoteness, and socioeconomic data. The models borrowed strength from previously published cancer risk estimates provided by the Social Health Atlases of Australia. Estimates were internally and externally validated. RESULTS: We illustrated that in 2017-2018 health behaviours across Australia exhibited more spatial disparities than previously realised by improving the reach and resolution of formerly published cancer risk factors. The derived estimates revealed higher prevalence of unhealthy behaviours in more remote areas, and areas of lower socioeconomic status; a trend that aligned well with previous work. CONCLUSIONS: Our study addresses the gaps in small area level cancer risk factor estimates in Australia. The new estimates provide improved spatial resolution and reach and will enable more targeted cancer prevention strategies at the small area level. Furthermore, by including the results in the next release of the Australian Cancer Atlas, which currently provides small area level estimates of cancer incidence and relative survival, this work will help to provide a more comprehensive picture of cancer in Australia by supporting policy makers, researchers, and the general public in understanding the spatial distribution of cancer risk factors. The methodology applied in this work is generalisable to other small area estimation applications and has been shown to perform well when the survey data are sparse.

Geographic variation and sociodemographic correlates of prescription psychotropic drug use among children and youth in Ontario, Canada: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Population-based research examining geographic variability in psychotropic medication dispensing to children and youth and the sociodemographic correlates of such variation is lacking. Variation in psychotropic use could reflect disparities in access to non-pharmacologic interventions and identify potentially concerning use patterns. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study of all Ontario residents aged 0 to 24 years who were dispensed a benzodiazepine, stimulant, antipsychotic or antidepressant between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2018. We conducted small-area variation analyses and identified determinants of dispensing using negative binomial generalized estimating equation models. RESULTS: The age- and sex-standardized rate of psychotropic dispensing to children and youth was 76.8 (range 41.7 to 144.4) prescriptions per 1000 population, with large variation in psychotropic dispensing across Ontario's census divisions. Males had higher antipsychotic [rate ratio (RR) 1.40; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36 to 1.44) and stimulant (RR 1.75; 95% CI 1.70 to 1.80) dispensing rates relative to females, with less use of benzodiazepines (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.88) and antidepressants (RR 0.81; 95% CI 0.80 to 0.82). Lower antipsychotic dispensing was observed in the highest income neighbourhoods (RR 0.72; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.75) relative to the lowest. Benzodiazepine (RR 1.12; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.24) and stimulant (RR 1.11; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.23) dispensing increased with the density of mental health services in census divisions, whereas antipsychotic use decreased (RR 0.82; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.91). The regional density of child and adolescent psychiatrists and developmental pediatricians (RR 1.00; 95% CI 0.99 to 1.01) was not associated with psychotropic dispensing. CONCLUSION: We found significant variation in psychotropic dispensing among young Ontarians. Targeted investment in regions with long wait times for publicly-funded non-pharmacological interventions and novel collaborative service models may minimize variability and promote best practices in using psychotropics among children and youth.

Prevalence of parental mental health conditions among children aged 0-16 years in Denmark: A nationwide register-based cross-sectional study.

Aim: Parental mental health conditions adversely affect the children. Information on the prevalence of parental mental health conditions is needed to help policymakers allocate resources appropriately. Therefore, the aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of children with parental mental health conditions in Denmark and further estimate the age-specific prevalence and geographical variation. Methods: In this nationwide register-based cross-sectional study, we included all children born between 2000 and 2016 if they resided in Denmark on 31 December 2016. Information on both maternal and paternal mental health conditions was retrieved from primary and secondary healthcare registers. Parental mental health conditions were categorised in three severity groups: minor, moderate, and severe. We estimated the proportion of children with parental mental health conditions on 31 December 2016. Results: Of the 1,106,459 children aged 0-16 years, 39.1% had at least one parent with a mental health condition. The prevalence increased with age of the children until the age of six years. Geographical variation in the prevalence ranged from 29.0% to 48.3% in the 98 municipalities. Minor parental mental health conditions (23.5%) were more common than moderate (13.5%) and severe parental mental health conditions (2.2%). Hospital-diagnosed parental mental health conditions were prevalent in 12.8% of the children. Conclusions: Two in five children aged 0-16 years in Denmark have parents with a mental health condition and geographical variation exists. The high prevalence of children with parental mental health conditions is an important public health challenge, which calls for attention.

Socioeconomic and geographic differences in ablation of atrial fibrillation in Norway - a national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to analyse whether there are patient related or geographic differences in the use of catheter ablation among atrial fibrillation patients in Norway. METHODS: National population-based data on individual level of all Norwegians aged 25 to 75 diagnosed with atrial fibrillation from 2008 to 2017 were used to study the proportion treated with catheter ablation. Survival analysis, by Cox regression with attained age as time scale, separately by gender, was applied to examine the associations between ablation probability and educational level, income level, place of residence, and follow-up time. RESULTS: Substantial socioeconomic and geographic variation was documented. Atrial fibrillation patients with high level of education and high income were more frequently treated with ablation, and the education effect increased with increasing age. Patients living in the referral area of St. Olavs Hospital Trust had around three times as high ablation rates as patients living in the referral area of Finnmark Hospital Trust. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in health literacy, patient preference and demands are probably important causes of socioeconomic variation, and studies on how socioeconomic status influences the choice of treatment are warranted. Some of the geographic variation may reflect differences in ablation capacity. However, geographic variation related to differences in clinical practice and provider preferences implies a need for clearer guidelines, both at the specialist level and at the referring level.

Geographical disparities in obesity prevalence: small-area analysis of the Chilean National Health Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Previous representative health surveys conducted in Chile evidenced a high obesity prevalence rate among adults, especially in female and urban areas. Nevertheless, these have limited utility for targeted interventions and local source allocation for prevention. This study analyzes the increments in obesity prevalence rates in populations ≥15 years of age and the geographic variation at the regional level. We also assessed whether the obesity rates have different patterns on a smaller geographic level than national and regional ones. METHODS: This ecological study analyzed data from two representative national samples of adolescents and adults ≥15 years old, who participated in the last Chilean health surveys, 2009 (n = 5412) and 2016 (n = 6233). Obesity (body mass index≥30 kg/m2) rates were calculated on the national, regional, and Health service (HS) levels, being HS the smallest unit of analysis available. Obesity rates and relative increase to early identify target populations and geographic areas, with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), were calculated using the sampling design of the national surveys, at the national and regional level, and by gender, age groups, and socioeconomic status. The Fay-Herriot (FH) models, using auxiliary data, were fitted for obesity rate estimates at the HS level. RESULTS: The relative increase in obesity rate was 37.1% (95%CI 23.3-52.9) at the national level, with a heterogeneous geographic distribution at the regional one. Southern regions had the highest obesity rates in both surveys (Aysén: 35.2, 95%CI 26.9-43.5 in 2009, 44.3 95%CI 37-51.7 in 2016), but higher increases were predominantly in the northern and central areas of the country (relative increase 91.1 95%CI 39.6-110.1 in Valparaiso and 81.6 95%CI 14.4-196.2 in Tarapacá). Obesity rates were higher in females, older age, and lower socioeconomic groups; nevertheless, relative increases were higher in the opposite ones. The FH estimates showed an obesity rates variation at the HS level, where higher rates tend to converge to specific HS areas of each region. CONCLUSION: Obesity rates and relative increase are diverse across subnational levels and substantially differ from the national estimates, highlighting a pattern that converges to areas with low-middle income households. Our results emphasize geographical disparities in obesity prevalence among adults and adolescents.

Geographical variation in compulsory hospitalisation - ethical challenges.

BACKGROUND: Compulsory hospitalisation in mental health care restricts patients' liberty and is experienced as harmful by many. Such hospitalisations continue to be used due to their assumed benefit, despite limited scientific evidence. Observed geographical variation in compulsory hospitalisation raises concern that rates are higher and lower than necessary in some areas. METHODS/DISCUSSION: We present a specific normative ethical analysis of how geographical variation in compulsory hospitalisation challenges four core principles of health care ethics. We then consider the theoretical possibility of a "right", or appropriate, level of compulsory hospitalisation, as a general norm for assessing the moral divergence, i.e., too little, or too much. Finally, we discuss implications of our analysis and how they can inform the future direction of mental health services.

Patient-reported outcomes as hospital performance measures: the challenge of confounding and how to handle it.

It is highly appealing to use patient-reported outcomes (PROs) as hospital performance measures; however, so far, the attention to key methodological issues has been limited. One of the most critical challenges when comparing PRO-based performance measures across providers is to rule out confounding. In this paper, we explain confounding and why it matters when comparing across providers. Using examples from studies, we present potential strategies for dealing with confounding when using PRO data at an aggregated level. We aim to give clinicians an overview of how confounding can be addressed in both the design stage (restriction, matching, self-controlled design and propensity score) and the analysis stage (stratification, standardization and multivariable adjustment, including multilevel analysis) of a study. We also briefly discuss strategies for confounding control when data on important confounders are missing or unavailable.

The evolution of infant mortality and neighbourhood inequalities in four world cities: 1988-2016.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the level of neighbourhood inequalities in infant mortality (IM) rates in the urban core of four world cities and to examine the association between neighbourhood-level income and IM. We compare our findings with those published in 2004 to better understand how these city health systems have evolved. METHODS: We compare IM rates among and within the four cities using data from four periods: 1988-1992; 1993-1997; 2003-2008 and 2012-2016. Using a maximum-likelihood negative binomial regression model that controls for births, we predict the relationship between neighbourhood-level income and IM. RESULTS: IM rates have declined in all four cities. Neighbourhood-level income is statistically significant for New York and, for the two most recent periods, in Paris. In contrast, there is no significant relationship between neighbourhood income and IM in London or Tokyo. CONCLUSIONS: Despite programmes to reduce IM inequalities at national and local levels, these persist in New York. Until the early part of this century, none of the other cities experienced a relationship between neighbourhood income and IM, but growing income inequalities within Paris have changed this situation. POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Policy-makers in these cities should focus on better understanding the social and economic factors associated with neighbourhood inequalities in IM.

Equitable access to cancer patient pathways in Norway - a national registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, cancer patient pathways (CPP) were implemented in Norway to reduce unnecessary non-medical delay in the diagnostic process and start of treatment. The main aim of this study was to investigate the equality in access to CPPs for patients with either lung, colorectal, breast or prostate cancer in Norway. METHODS: National population-based data on individual level from 2015 to 2017 were used to study two proportions; i) patients in CPPs without the cancer diagnosis, and ii) cancer patients included in CPPs. Logistic regression was applied to examine the associations between these proportions and place of residence (hospital referral area), age, education, income, comorbidity and travel time to hospital. RESULTS: Age and place of residence were the two most important factors for describing the variation in proportions. For the CPP patients, inconsistent differences were found for income and education, while for the cancer patients the probability of being included in a CPP increased with income. CONCLUSIONS: The age effect can be related to both the increasing risk of cancer and increasing number of GP and hospital contacts with age. The non-systematic results for CPP patients according to income and education can be interpreted as equitable access, as opposed to the systematic differences found among cancer patients in different income groups. The inequalities between income groups among cancer patients and the inequalities based on the patients' place of residence, for both CPP and cancer patients, are unwarranted and need to be addressed.

Socioeconomic inequalities in the place of death in urban small areas of three Mediterranean cities.

BACKGROUND: Dying at home is the most frequent preference of patients with advanced chronic conditions, their caregivers, and the general population. However, most deaths continue to occur in hospitals. The objective of this study was to analyse the socioeconomic inequalities in the place of death in urban areas of Mediterranean cities during the period 2010-2015, and to assess if such inequalities are related to palliative or non-palliative conditions. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of the population aged 15 years or over. The response variable was the place of death (home, hospital, residential care). The explanatory variables were: sex, age, marital status, country of birth, basic cause of death coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, and the deprivation level for each census tract based on a deprivation index calculated using 5 socioeconomic indicators. Multinomial logistic regression models were adjusted in order to analyse the association between the place of death and the explanatory variables. RESULTS: We analysed a total of 60,748 deaths, 58.5% occurred in hospitals, 32.4% at home, and 9.1% in residential care. Death in hospital was 80% more frequent than at home while death in a nursing home was more than 70% lower than at home. All the variables considered were significantly associated with the place of death, except country of birth, which was not significantly associated with death in residential care. In hospital, the deprivation level of the census tract presented a significant association (p < 0.05) so that the probability of death in hospital vs. home increased as the deprivation level increased. The deprivation level was also significantly associated with death in residential care, but there was no clear trend, showing a more complex association pattern. No significant interaction for deprivation level with cause of death (palliative, not palliative) was detected. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of dying in hospital, as compared to dying at home, increases as the socioeconomic deprivation of the urban area of residence rises, both for palliative and non-palliative causes. Further qualitative research is required to explore the needs and preferences of low-income families who have a terminally-ill family member and, in particular, their attitudes towards home-based and hospital-based death.

Wide systematic variations in potentially avoidable hospitalisations of chronically ill patients: Ecological study of basic health areas and healthcare areas. / Amplias variaciones sistemáticas en hospitalizaciones potencialmente evitables en pacientes crónicos: estudio ecológico sobre zonas básicas de salud y áreas sanitarias.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Potentially avoidable hospitalisations (PAHs) due to chronic conditions are a healthcare problem that could reflect healthcare of insufficient quality. This study reports the systematic variations in PAHs for the collection of providers of the Spanish National Health System. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted an ecological study on government data, analysing the systematic variation in PAHs for 6 chronic conditions during 2013-2015. To determine the variation, we performed a small area analysis using Bayesian methodology. RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2015, 439,878 admissions for PAHs were recorded in the Spanish National Health System. There was an up to 4-fold difference in PAH rates between certain basic health areas (BHA), with highly variable differences depending on the analysed condition. Forty percent of the BHAs showed a greater than expected risk of PAH. Beyond the systematic variation observed between BHAs, the healthcare areas of the patients' residence explained 33% of the variation in PAHs. We observed specific differences in these general results according to clinical condition, age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: The wide systematic variation in PAHs suggests a problem of quality in the care provided to chronically ill patients by the providers of healthcare areas in Spain. Identifying and analysing these areas and other healthcare areas with better results could provide a reference for improving the care of other suppliers with poorer performance.

Hospital, health, and community burden after oil refinery fires, Richmond, California 2007 and 2012.

INTRODUCTION: Emergency Departments experience a significant census burst after disasters. The aim of this study is to describe patient presentations at Emergency Departments in Contra Costa County, California following chemical release incidents at an oil refinery in 2007 and 2012. Specific areas of focus include hospital and community burden with an emphasis on disease classes. METHODS: Searching 4 weeks before through 4 weeks after each event, Emergency Department abstracts identified patients living in Contra Costa County and seeking care there or in neighboring Alameda County. City and ZIP-code of residence established proximity to the refinery. This provided the following contrast groups: Event (2007, 2012), time (before, after), location (bayside, rest of county), and within bayside, warned or not warned to shelter in place. Using the Multi-Level Clinical Classification Software, we classified primary health groups recorded 4 weeks before and after the events, then summarized the data, calculated rates, and made tables, graphs, and maps to highlight findings. RESULTS: Number of visits meeting selection criteria totalled 105020 records. Visits increased modestly but statistically significantly after the 2007 incident. After the 2012 incident, two Emergency Departments took the brunt of the surge. Censuses increased from less than 600 a week each to respectively 5719 and 3072 the first week, with the greatest number 2 days post-event. It took 4 weeks for censuses to return to normal. The most common diagnosis groups that spiked were nervous/sensory, respiratory, circulatory, and injury. Bayside communities had statistically significant increases in residents seeking care. Specifically, visits of residents in warned communities nearest the refinery increased by a factor of 3.7 while visits of residents in other nearby un-warned communities increased by a factor of 1.5. CONCLUSIONS: The 2012 Emergency Department census peaked in the first week and did not return to normal for 4 weeks. Diagnoses changed to reflect conditions associated with reactions to chemical exposures. Surrounding communities and nearby hospitals experienced significant emergent burdens. In addition to changes from such events in patient diagnoses and community burden, the discussion highlights the long-term implications of failures to require adequate monitoring and warning systems and failures of health planning.

Small-area socioeconomic deprivation indices in Cyprus: development and association with premature mortality.

BACKGROUND: Area-level measures of socioeconomic deprivation are important for understanding and describing health inequalities. The aim of this study was the development and validation of a small-area index of socioeconomic deprivation for Cypriot communities and the investigation of its association with the spatial distribution of all-cause premature adult mortality. METHODS: Six area-level socioeconomic indicators were used from the 2011 national population census (low educational attainment, unemployment, not owner occupied household, single-person household, divorced or widowed and single-parent households). After normalization and standardization of the geographically smoothed indicators, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to construct indicator weights. The association between deprivation indices and the spatial distribution of all-cause premature adult mortality was estimated in Poisson log-linear spatial models. RESULTS: PCA resulted in two principal components explaining the 65.7% of the total variance. The first principal component included four indicators (low educational attainment, single-person households, divorced or widowed and single-parent households, the latter however with a negative loading) and it thought more likely to capture rural-related aspects of deprivation. The second principal component included the other two indicators (unemployment and not owner occupied households) and it is more likely to capture urban-related aspects of material deprivation. Restricting the analysis in the metropolitan areas of the island resulted in a different set of indicators for the urban-specific deprivation index. All developed indices were linearly associated with all-cause premature adult mortality. The all-cause premature adult mortality increased by 17% per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in rural-related socioeconomic deprivation (95% CrI: 8-27%) and 8% per 1 SD increase in urban-related aspects of material deprivation (95% CrI: 3-15%) in the nationwide analysis and 9% per 1 SD increase in urban-specific socioeconomic deprivation (95% CrI: 4-15%) across metropolitan areas. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate that a set of small-area indices of socioeconomic deprivation across Cypriot communities have good construct and predictive validity. However, the study indicates that different aspects of socioeconomic deprivation may be important in rural and urban areas in Cyprus. The developed socioeconomic deprivation indices could offer a valid new tool for Cypriot public health research and policy in terms of identifying areas in greatest need, guiding resource allocation and developing area-targeted public health programmes and policies.

A spatial-temporal statistical analysis of health seasonality: explaining HFMD infections within a children population along the Vietnamese south central coast.

BACKGROUND: Various neglected tropical diseases show spatially changing seasonality at small areas. This phenomenon has received little scientific attention so far. Our study contributes to advancing the understanding of its drivers. This study focuses on the effects of the seasonality of increasing social contacts on the incidence proportions at multiple district level of the childhood hand-foot-mouth disease in Da Nang city, Viet Nam from 2012 to 2016. METHODS: We decomposed the nonstationary time series of the incidence proportions for the nine spatial-temporal (S-T) strata in the study area, where S indicates the spatial and T the temporal stratum. The long-term trends and the seasonality are presented by the Fourier series. To study the effects of the monthly average ambient temperature and the period of preschooling, we developed a spatial-temporal autoregressive model. RESULTS: Seasonality of childhood hand-foot-mouth disease incidence proportions shows two peaks in all spatial strata annually: large peaks synchronously in April and small ones asynchronously during the preschooling period. The peaks of the average temperature are asynchronous with the seasonal peaks of the childhood hand-foot-mouth disease incidence proportions in the period between January and May, with the negative values of the regression coefficients for all spatial strata, respectively: [Formula: see text]. The increasingly cumulative preschooling period and the seasonal component of the incidence proportions are negatively correlated in the period between August and December, with the negative values of the regression coefficients for all temporal strata, respectively: [Formula: see text]. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that social contact amongst children under five years of age is the important driving factor of the dynamics of the childhood hand-foot-mouth disease outbreaks in the study area. The preschooling season when children's contact with each other increases stimulates the geographical variation of the seasonality of childhood hand-foot-mouth disease infections at small areas in the study area.

Spatial patterning of self-harm rates within urban areas.

PURPOSE: Urban areas are usually found to have higher rates of self-harm, with deprivation the strongest predictor at area-level. We use a disease mapping approach to examine how self-harm is patterned within an urban area and its associations with deprivation, urbanness and ethnicity. METHODS: Data from clinical records on individuals admitted for self-harm for 725 small areas in South East London were included. Bayesian hierarchical models explored the spatio-temporal patterns of self-harm admission rates and potential associations with proximity to city centre, population density, percentage greenspace and non-white ethnic-minority populations. All models were adjusted for area-level deprivation, social fragmentation and hospital of admission. RESULTS: There were 8327 first admissions for self-harm during the study period. Self-harm admission rates varied fourfold across the study area, with lower rates close to the city centre [adjusted standardised admission ratio, closest versus furthest quartile 0.71(95% CrI 0.54-0.96)]. Deprivation was associated with self-harm but partially masked rather than explained the spatial pattern, which strengthened after adjustment. After adjustment for deprivation, hospital of admission and social fragmentation, greenspace, population density and ethnicity were not associated with self-harm rates. CONCLUSION: Proximity to the city centre was associated with lower rates of self-harm, but the usual operationalisations of urbanness, population density and greenspace, were not. Deprivation did not explain the spatial patterning, nor did ethnicity. While nationally self-harm rates are higher in urban and deprived areas, this cannot be extrapolated to mean that within cities the inner-city is the highest risk area nor that risk will be principally patterned according to deprivation.