Purely elastic turbulence in pressure-driven channel flows.

Solutions of long, flexible polymer molecules are complex fluids that simultaneously exhibit fluid-like and solid-like behavior. When subjected to an external flow, dilute polymer solutions exhibit elastic turbulence-a unique, chaotic flow state absent in Newtonian fluids, like water. Unlike its Newtonian counterpart, elastic turbulence is caused by polymer molecules stretching and aligning in the flow, and can occur at vanishing inertia. While experimental realizations of elastic turbulence are well-documented, there is currently no understanding of its mechanism. Here, we present large-scale direct numerical simulations of elastic turbulence in pressure-driven flows through straight channels. We demonstrate that the transition to elastic turbulence is sub-critical, giving rise to spot-like flow structures that, further away from the transition, eventually spread throughout the domain. We provide evidence that elastic turbulence is organized around unstable coherent states that are localized close to the channel midplane.

The NYCKidSeq randomized controlled trial: Impact of GUÍA digitally enhanced genetic results disclosure in diverse families.

Digital solutions are needed to support rapid increases in the application of genetic/genomic tests (GTs) in diverse clinical settings and patient populations. We developed GUÍA, a bilingual digital application that facilitates disclosure of GT results. The NYCKidSeq randomized controlled trial enrolled diverse children with neurologic, cardiac, and immunologic conditions who underwent GTs. The trial evaluated GUÍA's impact on understanding the GT results by randomizing families to results disclosure genetic counseling with GUÍA (intervention) or standard of care (SOC). Parents/legal guardians (participants) completed surveys at baseline, post-results disclosure, and 6 months later. Survey measures assessed the primary study outcomes of participants' perceived understanding of and confidence in explaining their child's GT results and the secondary outcome of objective understanding. The analysis included 551 diverse participants, 270 in the GUÍA arm and 281 in SOC. Participants in the GUÍA arm had significantly higher perceived understanding post-results (OR = 2.8, CI[1.004, 7.617], p = 0.049) and maintained higher objective understanding over time (OR = 1.1, CI[1.004, 1.127], p = 0.038) compared to SOC. There was no impact on perceived confidence. Hispanic/Latino(a) individuals in the GUÍA arm maintained higher perceived understanding (OR = 3.9, CI[1.603, 9.254], p = 0.003), confidence (OR = 2.7, CI[1.021, 7.277], p = 0.046), and objective understanding (OR = 1.1, CI[1.009, 1.212], p = 0.032) compared to SOC. This trial demonstrates that GUÍA positively impacts understanding of GT results in diverse parents of children with suspected genetic conditions and builds a case for utilizing GUÍA to deliver complex results. Continued development and evaluation of digital applications in diverse populations are critical for equitably scaling GT offerings in specialty clinics.

Megaherbivores modify forest structure and increase carbon stocks through multiple pathways.

Megaherbivores have pervasive ecological effects. In African rainforests, elephants can increase aboveground carbon, though the mechanisms are unclear. Here, we combine a large unpublished dataset of forest elephant feeding with published browsing preferences totaling nearly 200,000 records covering >800 plant species and with nutritional data for 145 species. Elephants increase carbon stocks by: 1) promoting high wood density trees via preferential browsing on leaves from low wood density species, which are more palatable and digestible; and 2) dispersing seeds of trees that are relatively large and have the highest average wood density among tree guilds based on dispersal mode. Loss of forest elephants could cause an increase in abundance of fast-growing low wood density trees and a 6% to 9% decline in aboveground carbon stocks due to regeneration failure of elephant-dispersed trees. These results demonstrate the importance of megaherbivores for maintaining diverse, high-carbon tropical forests. Successful elephant conservation will contribute to climate mitigation at a globally-relevant scale.

Reimagining infrastructure for a biodiverse future.

Civil infrastructure will be essential to face the interlinked existential threats of climate change and rising resource demands while ensuring a livable Anthropocene for all. However, conventional infrastructure planning largely neglects the contributions and maintenance of Earth's ecological life support systems, which provide irreplaceable services supporting human well-being. The stability and performance of these services depend on biodiversity, but conventional infrastructure practices, narrowly focused on controlling natural capital, have inadvertently degraded biodiversity while perpetuating social inequities. Here, we envision a new infrastructure paradigm wherein biodiversity and ecosystem services are a central objective of civil engineering. In particular, we reimagine infrastructure practice such that 1) ecosystem integrity and species conservation are explicit objectives from the outset of project planning; 2) infrastructure practices integrate biodiversity into diverse project portfolios along a spectrum from conventional to nature-based solutions and natural habitats; 3) ecosystem functions reinforce and enhance the performance and lifespan of infrastructure assets; and 4) civil engineering promotes environmental justice by counteracting legacies of social inequity in infrastructure development and nature conservation. This vision calls for a fundamental rethinking of the standards, practices, and mission of infrastructure development agencies and a broadening of scope for conservation science. We critically examine the legal and professional precedents for this paradigm shift, as well as the moral and economic imperatives for manifesting equitable infrastructure planning that mainstreams biodiversity and nature's benefits to people. Finally, we set an applied research agenda for supporting this vision and highlight financial, professional, and policy pathways for achieving it.

Climate benefits from establishing marine protected areas targeted at blue carbon solutions.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are recognized as highly effective tools for marine conservation. They may also play an important role in mitigating climate change. A variety of climate change solutions are rooted in the ocean, centered primarily around "blue carbon" and the capacity of marine life to sequester carbon dioxide (CO2) with some potential to reduce emissions. However, the global potential of these solutions remains misunderstood and untapped. Here, we analyze the potential impact on carbon removal and emissions reduction of adopting six ocean-based solutions in MPAs: coastal wetlands protection, coastal wetlands restoration, macroalgae protection, macroalgae restoration, seafloor protection, and seaweed farming. The carbon removal and avoided emissions achieved by implementing these solutions globally through 2060 were estimated using meta-analysis of existing studies. Applying all six ocean solutions under global implementation scenarios yields total emissions reduction by 2060 of 16.2 ± 1.82 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2-eq) for the plausible scenario and 24.8 ± 2.46 GtCO2-eq for the ambitious scenario. That equates to around 2% of the total carbon mitigation needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to 2 °C by 2050. Around 70% of this reduction is attributable to carbon removal and 30% to avoided emissions. Enhancing MPAs' blue carbon potential could be a key contributor to drawing down carbon and could provide many additional benefits to the marine environment and human society, such as rebuilding biodiversity and sustaining food production. However, more regional-scale studies are needed to inform the best strategies for preserving and enhancing carbon removal in ocean sinks.

The global potential for increased storage of carbon on land.

Constraining the climate crisis requires urgent action to reduce anthropogenic emissions while simultaneously removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Improved information about the maximum magnitude and spatial distribution of opportunities for additional land-based removals of CO2 is needed to guide on-the-ground decision-making about where to implement climate change mitigation strategies. Here, we present a globally consistent spatial dataset (approximately 500-m resolution) of current, potential, and unrealized potential carbon storage in woody plant biomass and soil organic matter. We also provide a framework for prioritizing actions related to the restoration, management, and maintenance of woody carbon stocks and associated soils. By comparing current to potential carbon storage, while excluding areas critical to food production and human habitation, we find 287 petagrams (PgC) of unrealized potential storage opportunity, of which 78% (224 PgC) is in biomass and 22% (63 PgC) is in soil. Improved management of existing forests may offer nearly three-fourths (206 PgC) of the total unrealized potential, with the majority (71%) concentrated in tropical ecosystems. However, climate change is a source of considerable uncertainty. While additional research is needed to understand the impact of natural disturbances and biophysical feedbacks, we project that the potential for additional carbon storage in woody biomass will increase (+17%) by 2050 despite projected decreases (−12%) in the tropics. Our results establish an absolute reference point and conceptual framework for national and jurisdictional prioritization of locations and actions to increase land-based carbon storage.

Financing conservation by valuing carbon services produced by wild animals.

Filling the global biodiversity financing gap will require significant investments from financial markets, which demand credible valuations of ecosystem services and natural capital. However, current valuation approaches discourage investment in conservation because their results cannot be verified using market-determined prices. Here, we bridge the gap between finance and conservation by valuing only wild animals' carbon services for which market prices exist. By projecting the future path of carbon service production using a spatially explicit demographic model, we place a credible value on the carbon capture services produced by African forest elephants. If elephants were protected, their services would be worth $20.8 billion ($10.3 to $29.7 billion) and $25.9 billion ($12.8 to $37.6 billion) for the next 10 and 30 y, respectively, and could finance antipoaching and conservation programs. Elephant population growth would generate a carbon sink of 109 MtC (64 to 153) across tropical Africa in the next 30 y. Avoided elephant extinction would also prevent the loss of 93 MtC (46 to 130), which is the contribution of the remaining populations. Uncertainties in our projections are controlled mainly by forest regeneration rates and poaching intensity, which indicate that conservation can actively reduce uncertainty for increased financial and biodiversity benefits. Our methodology can also place lower bounds on the social cost of nature degradation. Poaching would result in $2 to $7 billion of lost carbon services within the next 10 to 30 y, suggesting that the benefits of protecting elephants far outweigh the costs. Our methodology enables the integration of animal services into global financial markets with major implications for conservation, local socioeconomies, and conservation.

Self-similar Rayleigh-Taylor mixing with accelerations varying in time and space.

As a ubiquitous paradigm of instabilities and mixing that occur in instances as diverse as supernovae, plasma fusion, oil recovery, and nanofabrication, the Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) problem is rightly regarded as important. The acceleration of the fluid medium in these instances often depends on time and space, whereas most past studies assume it to be constant or impulsive. Here, we analyze the symmetries of RT mixing for variable accelerations and obtain the scaling of correlations and spectra for classes of self-similar dynamics. RT mixing is shown to retain the memory of deterministic conditions for all accelerations, with the dynamics ranging from superballistic to subdiffusive. These results contribute to our understanding and control of the RT phenomena and reveal specific conditions under which Kolmogorov turbulence might be realized in RT mixing.

Pandemic origins and a One Health approach to preparedness and prevention: Solutions based on SARS-CoV-2 and other RNA viruses.

COVID-19 is the latest zoonotic RNA virus epidemic of concern. Learning how it began and spread will help to determine how to reduce the risk of future events. We review major RNA virus outbreaks since 1967 to identify common features and opportunities to prevent emergence, including ancestral viral origins in birds, bats, and other mammals; animal reservoirs and intermediate hosts; and pathways for zoonotic spillover and community spread, leading to local, regional, or international outbreaks. The increasing scientific evidence concerning the origins of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is most consistent with a zoonotic origin and a spillover pathway from wildlife to people via wildlife farming and the wildlife trade. We apply what we know about these outbreaks to identify relevant, feasible, and implementable interventions. We identify three primary targets for pandemic prevention and preparedness: first, smart surveillance coupled with epidemiological risk assessment across wildlife-livestock-human (One Health) spillover interfaces; second, research to enhance pandemic preparedness and expedite development of vaccines and therapeutics; and third, strategies to reduce underlying drivers of spillover risk and spread and reduce the influence of misinformation. For all three, continued efforts to improve and integrate biosafety and biosecurity with the implementation of a One Health approach are essential. We discuss new models to address the challenges of creating an inclusive and effective governance structure, with the necessary stable funding for cross-disciplinary collaborative research. Finally, we offer recommendations for feasible actions to close the knowledge gaps across the One Health continuum and improve preparedness and response in the future.

Interplay of vitrification and ice formation in a cryoprotectant aqueous solution at low temperature.

The proneness of water to crystallize is a major obstacle to understanding its putative exotic behavior in the supercooled state. It also represents a strong practical limitation to cryopreservation of biological systems. Adding some concentration of glycerol, which has a cryoprotective effect preventing, to some degree, water crystallization, has been proposed as a possible way out, provided the concentration is small enough for water to retain some of its bulk character and/or for limiting the damage caused by glycerol on living organisms. Contrary to previous expectations, we show that, in the "marginal" glycerol molar concentration ≈ 18%, at which vitrification is possible with no crystallization on rapid cooling, water crystallizes upon isothermal annealing even below the calorimetric glass transition of the solution. Through a time-resolved polarized neutron scattering investigation, we extract key parameters, size and shape of the ice crystallites, fraction of water that crystallizes, and crystallization time, which are important for cryoprotection, as a function of the annealing temperature. We also characterize the nature of the out-of-equilibrium liquid phases that are present at low temperature, providing more arguments against the presence of an isocompositional liquid­liquid transition. Finally, we propose a rule of thumb to estimate the lower temperature limit below which water crystallization does not occur in aqueous solutions.

Charge Transfer Mechanisms of Adaptive Multicomponent Solutions at Solid-Liquid Interfaces for Real-Time Coolant State Monitoring.

Charge-transfer mechanisms in adaptive multicomponent solutions at liquid-solid interfaces with triboelectric probes are crucial for understanding chemistry dynamics. However, liquid-solid charge transfer becomes unpredictable, due to the components or interactions in solutions, restricting its potential application for precise monitoring of liquid environments. This study utilizes triboelectric probes to investigate the charge transfer of chemicals, applying this approach to real-time coolant state monitoring. Analysis of electrical signal dynamics induced by ethylene glycol and its oxidation byproduct, oxalic acid, in ethylene glycol solutions reveals that hydrogen bond and ion adsorption diminishes the efficiency of electron transfer at the liquid-solid interface. These findings promote the engineering of the triboelectric probe that enhances coolant quality with remarkable sensitivity (detection limit: 0.0001%) and a broad freezing point operational range (0 to -49 °C). This work advances the precise control of the charge dynamics and demonstrates the potential of triboelectric probes for interdisciplinary applications.

Boosting Osmotic Energy Harvesting from Organic Solutions by Ultrathin Covalent Organic Framework Membranes.

Extracting osmotic energy from waste organic solutions via reverse electrodialysis represents a promising approach to reuse such industrial wastes and helps to mitigate the ever-growing energy needs. Herein, a molecularly thin membrane of covalent organic frameworks is engineered via interfacial polymerization to investigate its ion transport behavior in organic solutions. Interestingly, a significant deviation from linearity between ion conductance and reciprocal viscosity is observed, attributed to the nanoscale confinement effect on intermolecular interactions. This finding suggests a potential strategy to modulate the influence of apprarent viscosity on transmembrane transport. The osmotic energy harvesting of the ultrathin membrane in organic systems was studied, achieving an unprecedented output power density of over 84.5 W m-2 at a 1000-fold salinity gradient with a benign conversion efficiency and excellent stability. These findings provide a meaningful stepping stone for future studies seeking to fully leverage the potentials of organic systems in energy harvesting applications.

Is source-resolved magnetoencephalographic mismatch negativity a viable biomarker for early psychosis?

Mismatch negativity (MMN) is an auditory event-related response reflecting the pre-attentive detection of novel stimuli and is a biomarker of cortical dysfunction in schizophrenia (SZ). MMN to pitch (pMMN) and to duration (dMMN) deviant stimuli are impaired in chronic SZ, but it is less clear if MMN is reduced in first-episode SZ, with inconsistent findings in scalp-level EEG studies. Here, we investigated the neural generators of pMMN and dMMN with MEG recordings in 26 first-episode schizophrenia spectrum (FEsz) and 26 matched healthy controls (C). We projected MEG inverse solutions into precise functionally meaningful auditory cortex areas. MEG-derived MMN sources were in bilateral primary auditory cortex (A1) and belt areas. In A1, pMMN FEsz reduction showed a trend towards statistical significance (F(1,50) = 3.31; p = .07), and dMMN was reduced in FEsz (F(1,50) = 4.11; p = .04). Hypothesis-driven comparisons at each hemisphere revealed dMMN reduction in FEsz occurred in the left (t(56) = 2.23; p = .03; d = .61) but not right (t(56) = 1.02; p = .31; d = .28) hemisphere, with a moderate effect size. The added precision of MEG source solution with high-resolution MRI and parcellation of A1 may be requisite to detect the emerging pathophysiology and indicates a critical role for left hemisphere pathology at psychosis onset. However, the moderate effect size in left A1, albeit larger than reported in scalp MMN meta-analyses, casts doubt on the clinical utility of MMN for differential diagnosis, as a majority of patients will overlap with the healthy individual's distribution.

Customized Ultrathin Oxygen Vacancy-Rich Bi2W0.2Mo0.8O6 Nanosheets Enabling a Stepwise Charge Separation Relay and Exposure of Lewis Acid Sites toward Broad-Spectrum Photothermal Catalysis.

Designing robust photocatalysts with broad light absorption, effective charge separation, and sufficient reactive sites is critical for achieving efficient solar energy conversion. However, realizing these aims simultaneously through a single material modulation approach poses a challenge. Here, a 2D ultrathin oxygen vacancy (Ov)-rich Bi2W0.2Mo0.8O6 solid solution photocatalyst is designed and fabricated to tackle the dilemma through component and structure optimization. Specifically, the construction of a solid solution with ultrathin structure initially facilitates the separation of photoinduced electron-hole pairs, while the introduction of Ov strengthens such separation. In the meantime, the presence of Ov extends light absorption to the NIR region, triggering a photothermal effect that further enhances the charge separation and accelerates the redox reaction. As such, photoinduced charge carriers in the Ov-Bi2W0.2Mo0.8O6 are separated step by step via the synergistic action of 2D solid solution, OV, and solar heating. Furthermore, the introduction of OV exposes surface metal sites that serve as reactive Lewis acid sites, promoting the adsorption and activation of toluene. Consequently, the designed Ov-Bi2W0.2Mo0.8O6 reveals an enhanced photothermal catalytic toluene oxidation rate of 2445 µmol g-1 h-1 under a wide spectrum without extra heat input. The performance is 9.0 and 3.9 times that of Bi2WO6 and Bi2MoO6 nanosheets, respectively.

Fluorinated Co-Solvents Enable Excellent Performances of Practical Cells Comprising LixSiO-Graphite Composite Anodes and LiNi0.89Co0.05Mn0.05Al0.01O2 (NCMA) Cathodes.

Li-ion batteries based on high specific capacity LixSiO-Graphite anodes and LiNi0.89Co0.05 Mn0.05Al0.01O2 (NCMA) cathodes may have numerous practical applications owing to high energy density without a necessary compromise on safety. SiO, which is an attractive Li insertion anode material, offers more cycling stability than Si and a higher capacity than graphite. Therefore, a new trend has emerged for developing composite C-Si anodes, possessing the excellent cyclability of graphite coupled with high capacity SiO. The composite structure described herein prevents the volume expansion of SiO and maintains the structural integrity during prolonged cycling. However, graphite electrodes suffer from exfoliation in propylene carbonate (PC) based electrolyte solutions, which avoids well known safety benefits related to a possible use of PC based electrolyte solutions in all kinds of Li batteries. Herein, it is reported that trifluoro propylene carbonate (TFPC) is compatible with graphite anodes. New electrolyte formulations are developed and tested containing fluorinated co-solvents and compared the performance of several electrolyte solutions, including conventional alkyl carbonates-based solutions in full Li-ion cells, which included LixSiO-Graphite anodes and LiNi0.89Co0.05Mn0.05Al0.01O2 (NCMA) cathodes. Cells with new electrolyte solutions developed herein demonstrated nearly twice capacity retention in prolonged cycling experiments compared to similar reference cells containing conventional electrolyte solutions.

A theoretical framework to investigate the effect of high permittivity materials in MRI using anatomy-mimicking cylinders.

PURPOSE: Recent numerical and empirical results proved that high permittivity materials (HPM) used in pads placed near the subject or directly integrated with coils can increase the SNR and reduce the specific absorption rate (SAR) in MRI. In this paper, we propose an analytical investigation of the effect on the magnetic field distribution of a layer of HPM surrounding an anatomy-mimicking cylindrical sample. METHODS: The study is based on a reformulation of the Mie scattering for cylindrical geometry, following an approach recently introduced for spherical samples. The total field in each medium is decomposed in terms of inward and outward electromagnetic waves, and the fields are expressed as series of cylindrical harmonics, whose coefficients can be interpreted as classical reflection and transmission coefficients. RESULTS: Our new formulation allows a quantitative evaluation of the effect of the HPM layer for varying permittivity and thickness, and it provides an intuitive understanding of such effect in terms of propagation and scattering of the RF field. CONCLUSION: We show how HPM can filter out the modes that only contribute to the noise or RF power deposition, resulting in higher SNR or lower SAR, respectively. Our proposed framework provides physical insight on how to properly design HPM for MRI applications.

Targeted rainfall enhancement as an objective of forestation.

Forestation efforts are accelerating across the globe in the fight against global climate change, in order to restore biodiversity, and to improve local livelihoods. Yet, so far the non-local effects of forestation on rainfall have largely remained a blind spot. Here we build upon emerging work to propose that targeted rainfall enhancement may also be considered in the prioritization of forestation. We show that the tools to achieve this are rapidly becoming available, but we also identify drawbacks and discuss which further developments are still needed to realize robust assessments of the rainfall effects of forestation in the face of climate change. Forestation programs may then mitigate not only global climate change itself but also its adverse effects in the form of drying.

Tree contributions to climate change adaptation through reduced cattle heat stress and benefits to milk and beef production.

Cattle heat stress causes billions of dollars' worth of losses to meat and milk production globally, and is projected to become more severe in the future due to climate change. Tree establishment in pastoral livestock systems holds potential to reduce cattle heat stress and thus provide nature-based adaptation. We developed a general model for the impact of trees on cattle heat stress, which can project milk and meat production under future climate scenarios at varying spatial scales. The model incorporates the key microclimate mechanisms influenced by trees, including shade, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. We conducted sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the relative influence of different mechanisms through which trees can impact cattle heat stress, and how tree impacts are influenced by climatic context globally. Trees hold the greatest potential to reduce cattle heat stress in higher latitudes and altitudes, with minor benefits in the lowland tropics. We projected the future contributions of current trees in mitigating climate change impacts on the dairy and beef herds of Aotearoa-New Zealand (A-NZ) in 2070-2080. Trees were simulated to contribute to A-NZ milk yields by over 491 million liters (lower CI = 112 million liters, upper CI = 850 million liters), and meat yields by over 8316 tonnes (lower CI = 2431 tonnes, upper CI = 13,668 tonnes) annually. The total economic contribution of existing trees in mitigating future cattle heat stress was valued at $US 244 million (lower CI = $US 58 million, upper CI = $US 419 million). Our findings demonstrate the importance of existing trees in pastoral landscapes and suggest that strategic tree establishment can be a valuable adaptation option for reducing cattle heat stress under climate change. Tree establishment in the next few years is critical to provide adaptation capacity and economic benefit in future decades.

Assessing the effectiveness of marine nature-based solutions with climate risk assessments.

Prospective risks from climate change impacts in ocean and coastal systems are urging the implementation of nature-based solutions (NBS). These are climate-resilient strategies to maintain biodiversity and the delivery of ecosystem services, contributing to the adaptation of social-ecological systems and the mitigation of climate-related impacts. However, the effectiveness of measures like marine restoration or conservation is not exempt from the impacts of climate change, and the degree to which they can sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services remains unknown. Such uncertainty, together with the slow pace of implementation, causes decision-makers and societies to demand a better understanding of NBS effects. To address this gap, in this study, we use the risk mitigation capacity of marine NBS as a proxy for their effectiveness while providing a toolset for the implementation of the method. The method considers environmental data and relies on expert elicitation, allowing us to go beyond current practice to evaluate the effectiveness of NBS in reducing habitat or species risks under different future socio-political and climate-change scenarios. As a result, we present a ready-to-use tool, and supporting materials, for the implementation of the Climate Risk Assessment method and an illustrative example considering the application of the NBS "nature-inclusive harvesting" in two shellfisheries. The method works as a rapid assessment that guarantees comparability across sites and species due to its low data or resource demand, so it can be widely incorporated to adaptation policies across the marine realm.

Hurricanes pose a substantial risk to New England forest carbon stocks.

Nature-based climate solutions (NCS) are championed as a primary tool to mitigate climate change, especially in forested regions capable of storing and sequestering vast amounts of carbon. New England is one of the most heavily forested regions in the United States (>75% forested by land area), and forest carbon is a significant component of climate mitigation policies. Large infrequent disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a major source of uncertainty and risk for policies relying on forest carbon for climate mitigation, especially as climate change is projected to alter the intensity and extent of hurricanes. To date, most research into disturbance impacts on forest carbon stocks has focused on fire. Here, we show that a single hurricane in the region can down between 121 and 250 MMTCO2e or 4.6%-9.4% of the total aboveground forest carbon, much greater than the carbon sequestered annually by New England's forests (16 MMTCO2e year-1). However, emissions from hurricanes are not instantaneous; it takes approximately 19 years for downed carbon to become a net emission and 100 years for 90% of the downed carbon to be emitted. Reconstructing hurricanes with the HURRECON and EXPOS models across a range of historical and projected wind speeds, we find that an 8% and 16% increase in hurricane wind speeds leads to a 10.7- and 24.8-fold increase in the extent of high-severity damaged areas (widespread tree mortality). Increased wind speed also leads to unprecedented geographical shifts in damage, both inland and northward, into heavily forested regions traditionally less affected by hurricanes. Given that a single hurricane can emit the equivalent of 10+ years of carbon sequestered by forests in New England, the status of these forests as a durable carbon sink is uncertain. Understanding the risks to forest carbon stocks from disturbances is necessary for decision-makers relying on forests as a NCS.