Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis.

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Replanteamiento del manejo de problemas por enfermedades de fauna mediante el análisis de decisiones Resumen El manejo actual de las enfermedades de la fauna es complejo debido a que los gestores necesitan responder a una amplia gama de actores, varias incertidumbres y compensaciones difíciles que caracterizan los retos interconectados del día de hoy. A pesar de que en general se reconocen estas complejidades, el manejo de las enfermedades tiende a plantearse como un problema científico en el que el principal obstáculo es la falta de conocimiento. El proceso complejo y multifactorial de la toma decisiones está colapsado dentro de un esfuerzo científico para reducir la incertidumbre. Como resultado de esto, las decisiones contemporáneas pueden estar simplificadas en exceso, depender de métodos heurísticos simples y no considerar el contexto legal, social y económico más amplio en el que se toman las decisiones. De manera paralela, las investigaciones científicas sobre las enfermedades de la fauna pueden estar lejos de este contexto de decisiones, lo que deriva en información que puede no ser directamente relevante para las preguntas pertinentes de manejo. Proponemos replantear los obstáculos para el manejo de enfermedades de fauna como problemas de decisión y abordarlos con herramientas analíticas de decisión para dividir los problemas complejos en elementos más manejables de manera cognitiva. En particular, las decisiones estructuradas tienen el potencial de mejorar la calidad, el rigor y la transparencia de las decisiones sobre las enfermedades de la fauna en una variedad de sistemas. Ejemplos como el manejo del coronavirus del síndrome de respiración agudo tipo 2, el síndrome de nariz blanca, la influenza aviar y la quitridiomicosis ilustran los impedimentos más comunes para la toma de decisiones, incluyendo los objetivos en competencia, riesgos, incertidumbre en las predicciones y recursos limitados.

Qualitative value of information provides a transparent and repeatable method for identifying critical uncertainty.

Conservation decisions are often made in the face of uncertainty because the urgency to act can preclude delaying management while uncertainty is resolved. In this context, adaptive management is attractive, allowing simultaneous management and learning. An adaptive program design requires the identification of critical uncertainties that impede the choice of management action. Quantitative evaluation of critical uncertainty, using the expected value of information, may require more resources than are available in the early stages of conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate the use of a qualitative index to the value of information (QVoI) to prioritize which sources of uncertainty to reduce regarding the use of prescribed fire to benefit Eastern Black Rails (Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis), Yellow Rails (Coterminous noveboracensis), and Mottled Ducks (Anas fulvigula; hereafter, focal species) in high marshes of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Prescribed fire has been used as a management tool in Gulf of Mexico high marshes throughout the last 30+ years; however, effects of periodic burning on the focal species and the optimal conditions for burning marshes to improve habitat remain unknown. We followed a structured decision-making framework to develop conceptual models, which we then used to identify sources of uncertainty and articulate alternative hypotheses about prescribed fire in high marshes. We used QVoI to evaluate the sources of uncertainty based on their Magnitude, Relevance for decision-making, and Reducibility. We found that hypotheses related to the optimal fire return interval and season were the highest priorities for study, whereas hypotheses related to predation rates and interactions among management techniques were lowest. These results suggest that learning about the optimal fire frequency and season to benefit the focal species might produce the greatest management benefit. In this case study, we demonstrate that QVoI can help managers decide where to apply limited resources to learn which specific actions will result in a higher likelihood of achieving the desired management objectives. Further, we summarize the strengths and limitations of QVoI and outline recommendations for its future use for prioritizing research to reduce uncertainty about system dynamics and the effects of management actions.

Creating conservation strategies with value-focused thinking.

Biodiversity and human well-being strategies are only as good as the set of ideas people think about. We evaluated value-focused thinking (VFT), a framework that emphasizes creating objectives and strategies that are responsive to the objectives. We performed a proof-of-concept study of VFT with 6 conservation planning teams at a global conservation organization. We developed a package of materials related to VFT, including meeting-session agendas, a virtual facilitation template, facilitator's guide, and evaluation questionnaires. We used these materials to test whether VFT applied in a group setting resulted in high-quality conservation strategies and participant satisfaction and whether our materials were scalable, meaning that someone newly trained in VFT could facilitate planning meetings that resulted in high-quality strategies and participant satisfaction, as compared with an experienced VFT facilitator. Net response indicated positive compelling, feasible, creative, and representative ratings for the conservation strategies per team. Participants indicated satisfaction overall, although satisfaction was greater for objectives than for strategies. Among the participants with previous conservation planning experience, all were at least as satisfied with their VFT strategies compared with previously developed strategies, and none were less satisfied (p = 0.001). Changes in participant satisfaction were not related to facilitator type (experienced or inexperienced with VFT) (p > 0.10). Some participants had a preconceived sense of shared understanding of important values and interests before participating in the study, which VFT strengthened. Our results highlight the advantages of structuring the development and evaluation of conservation planning frameworks around VFT.

Creación de estrategias de conservación con el pensamiento orientado a valores Resumen Las estrategias para la biodiversidad y el bienestar humano son tan buenas como el conjunto de ideas en el que piensan las personas. Evaluamos el pensamiento orientado a valores (POV), un marco que promueve la creación de objetivos y estrategias responsivas a los objetivos. Realizamos un estudio de prueba de concepto del POV con seis equipos de planeación de la conservación en una organización mundial de conservación. Desarrollamos un paquete de materiales relacionado con el POV que incluyó orden del día de las reuniones, una plantilla de asesoramiento virtual, una guía para el facilitador y cuestionarios de evaluación. Usamos estos materiales para probar si el POV aplicado en un entorno de grupo da como resultado estrategias de conservación de gran calidad y la satisfacción de los participantes. También probamos si nuestros materiales podían ampliarse, es decir, si alguien con entrenamiento reciente de POV podría facilitar la planeación de reuniones para que resultaran en estrategias de gran calidad y la satisfacción de los participantes en comparación con un facilitador experimentado. Por equipo, la respuesta neta indicó calificaciones positivas, convincentes, factibles, creativas y representativas para las estrategias de conservación. Los participantes indicaron una satisfacción generalizada, aunque ésta fue mayor para los objetivos que para las estrategias. Entre los participantes con experiencia previa en la planeación de la conservación, todos estuvieron satisfechos al menos con sus estrategias de POV en comparación con las estrategias previas y ninguno estuvo menos satisfecho (p= 0.001). Los cambios en la satisfacción de los participantes no estuvieron relacionados con el tipo de facilitador (con o sin experiencia en POV) (p> 0.10). Antes de participar en el estudio, algunos participantes ya tenían un sentido preconcebido del entendimiento compartido de los valores e intereses importantes, lo que el POV fortaleció. Nuestros resultados resaltan las ventajas de la estructuración del desarrollo y la evaluación en torno al POV de los marcos de planeación de la conservación.

Prioritizing species conservation programs based on IUCN Green Status and estimates of cost-sharing potential.

Over 1 million species around the world are at risk of extinction, and conservation organizations have to decide where to invest their limited resources. Cost-effectiveness can be increased by leveraging funding opportunities and increasing collaborative partnerships to achieve shared conservation goals. We devised a structured decision-making framework to prioritize species' conservation programs based on a cost-benefit analysis that takes collaborative opportunities into account in an examination of national and global conservation return on investment. Conservation benefit is determined by modifying the novel International Union for the Conservation of Nature Green Status for Species to provide an efficient, high-level measure that is comparable among species, even with limited information and time constraints. We applied this prioritization approach to the Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, Canada, a nonprofit organization seeking to increase the number of species it assists with conservation translocations. We sought to identify and prioritize additional species' programs for which conservation translocation expertise and actions could make the most impact. Estimating the likelihood of cost-sharing potential enabled total program cost to be distinguished from costs specific to the organization. Comparing a benefit-to-cost ratio on different geographic scales allowed decision makers to weigh alternative options for investing in new species' programs in a transparent and effective manner. Our innovative analysis aligns with general conservation planning frameworks and can be adapted for any organization.

Priorización de los programas de conservación de especies con base en el Estatus Verde de la UICN y las estimaciones del potencial del reparto de costos Resumen Hoy en día, las organizaciones de conservación tienen que decidir en dónde invertir sus limitados recursos a la vez que más de un millón de especies están en peligro de extinción a nivel mundial. La rentabilidad de las inversiones puede incrementarse aprovechando las oportunidades de financiación y aumentando las asociaciones de colaboración para alcanzar los objetivos de conservación compartidos. Diseñamos un marco de toma de decisiones para priorizar los programas de conservación de especies con base en un análisis de costo-beneficio que considera las oportunidades de colaboración de un estudio del rendimiento de la inversión en la conservación a escala nacional y mundial. El beneficio de la conservación se determina al modificar el novedoso Estatus Verde de las Especies de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza para proporcionar una medida eficiente y de alto nivel que pueda compararse entre especies, incluso con limitaciones de información y tiempo. Aplicamos esta estrategia de priorización al Instituto Wilder/Zoológico de Calgary (Canadá), una organización sin fines de lucro que pretende aumentar el número de especies a las que ayuda con reubicaciones de conservación. Intentamos identificar y priorizar programas de especies adicionales en los que la experiencia y las acciones de reubicación para la conservación pudieran tener un mayor impacto. La estimación de la probabilidad del potencial de reparto de costos permitió distinguir el costo total del programa de los costos específicos de la organización. La comparación de la relación costo-beneficio a diferentes escalas geográficas permitió a los responsables de la toma de decisiones sopesar las opciones para invertir en nuevos programas de especies de forma transparente y eficaz. Nuestro análisis innovador se ajusta a los marcos generales de planificación de la conservación y puede adaptarse a cualquier organización.

Evaluation of emission reduction and other societal and environmental outcomes: Structured decision making for the Louisiana climate action plan.

Climate action planning continues to accelerate rapidly across the globe as communities seek to prepare to thrive in an uncertain future. Climate action planning is a particularly contentious and complex topic in the southern United States, however, because of significant economic reliance on industries that contribute substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, and due to a complicated relationship between industry and persistent racial and economic inequities that contribute to distrust between communities, businesses, and state governments. Within the last decade, research efforts have begun to evaluate approaches used to develop city, state, and national-level climate action plans, finding that planning efforts are often as diverse as the localities they represent. Climate action planning processes that evaluate the potential implications of climate action on greenhouse gas emissions and societal values are often driven by either qualitative stakeholder engagement or by the results of numerical models. While both approaches are valuable, they also have limitations that can result in climate action plans that are unrealistic or unimplementable. Limited research is available that assesses planning efforts that integrate multiple evaluation methodologies. In this study, we evaluate the strengths and limitations of integrating qualitative and quantitative climate action evaluation methodologies in a planning process grounded in structured decision making using Louisiana as a case study. This mixed method planning approach applied both quantitative numerical models and qualitative expert elicitation to evaluate potential implications of climate action for Louisiana. We found that integration of approaches through a transparent, structured, and objectives-orientated process allowed for robust analysis of potential climate actions while engendering process buy-in across diverse stakeholder interests. This process ultimately resulted in the unanimous adoption of Louisiana's climate action plan, characterized by a wholistic and implementable set of climate actions balanced against the values of Louisianians. The process outlined in this study represents a replicable approach for other climate action planning efforts.

When are environmental DNA early detections of invasive species actionable?

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling provides sensitive early detection capabilities for recently introduced taxa. However, natural resource managers struggle with how to integrate eDNA results into an early detection rapid response program because positive eDNA detections are not always indicative of an eventual infestation. We used a structured decision making (SDM) framework to evaluate appropriate response actions to hypothetical eDNA early detections of an introduced aquatic plant in Sebago Lake (Maine, USA). The results were juxtaposed to a recent study that used a similar SDM approach to evaluate response actions to hypothetical eDNA early detections of introduced mussels in Jordanelle Reservoir (Utah, USA). We found that eDNA early detections were not actionable in Sebago Lake because the plant's invasion potential was spatially constrained and the current management activities provided acceptable levels of mitigation. In Jordanelle Reservoir, eDNA detections were actionable due to high invasion potential and analyses supported management actions to contain the invasion. The divergent outcomes of the two case studies are related to the unique attributes of the habitats and species, highlighting the utility of the SDM approach when considering an eDNA monitoring program. We use these two case studies to present a general SDM framework and a set of heuristics that can be efficiently applied to eDNA early detection rapid response scenarios and other instances associated with indeterminant eDNA detections, especially when there is an imperative to make decisions as quickly as possible.

Trade-offs across values in cesspool management highlight challenges to policy making.

On-site Sewage Disposal Systems (OSDS) are globally common, and in Hawai'i they present a risk of contamination to drinking water sources and nearshore waters. State legislation has commanded that all cesspools are to be banned by 2050, thus requiring tens of thousands of systems to be converted in the coming decades. This project followed a participatory structured decision-making (SDM) approach to collaboratively design cost-effective and equitable solutions for thousands of cesspools in the high elevation areas of north Maui, Hawai'i. Participatory workshops with a diverse group of stakeholders set ten objectives and brainstormed 33 alternatives, for which the technical team then modeled groundwater nutrients, costs, and equity. All alternatives posed trade-offs, though composting toilets performed best across most objectives, albeit with high maintenance burden. Discounting innovative toilets, the multi-objective analysis suggests that the state should invest in cluster sewering of high-density communities, followed by incentivizing septic tank solutions in properties with the highest effluent flow first, then expanding across the area. The total project cost (installation and operation/maintenance) would be $183-258 million, depending upon the sewer-septic combination. An efficiency frontier reveals sub-par combinations, including aerobic treatment units and passive absorption systems, which cost much more and deliver lower mass flux reduction than more cost-effective alternatives. This study contributes a novel case of rural sanitation to the literature in which decision support tools are used to facilitate evidence-based, collaborative decision-making for sanitation planning. The state could use a similar participatory SDM process when approaching other communities to discuss their cesspool upgrade strategies. Broadening the use of decision analytic techniques can have wider ecological, economic, and social benefits for the state and contexts beyond Hawai'i, as SDM provides a transparent and rigorous, evidence-based decision-theoretic framework to explore multiple values and strategies to address difficult resource management problems.

Applying and Assessing Participatory Approaches in an Environmental Flows Case Study.

Environmental flows (e-flows) management takes place within a complex social-ecological system, necessitating the involvement of diverse stakeholders and an appreciation of a range of perspectives and knowledge types. It is widely accepted that incorporating participatory methods into environmental flows decision-making will allow stakeholders to become meaningfully involved, improving potential solutions, and fostering social legitimacy. However, due to substantial structural barriers, implementing participatory approaches can be difficult for water managers. This paper assesses the effectiveness of an e-flows methodology that combines elements of structured decision-making and participatory modeling, whilst constrained by project resources. Three process-based objectives were identified by the group at the start of the process: improving transparency, knowledge exchange, and community ownership. We evaluated the success of the approach according to those objectives using semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis. In evaluating how well the participatory approach achieved the process objectives, we found that at least 80% of respondents expressed positive sentiment in every category (n = 15). We demonstrate that the values-based process objectives defined by the participant group are an effective tool for evaluating participatory success. This paper highlights that participatory approaches can be effective even in resource-constrained environments when the process is adapted to fit the decision-making context.

Lessons from other disciplines for setting management thresholds for biodiversity conservation.

Successful, state-dependent management, in which the goal of management is to maintain a system in a desired state, involves defining the boundaries between different states. Once these boundaries have been defined, managers require a strategic action plan with thresholds that initiate management interventions to either maintain or return the system to a desired state. This approach to management is widely used across diverse industries from agriculture, to medicine, to information technology, but it has only been adopted in conservation management relatively recently. Conservation practitioners have expressed a willingness to integrate this structured approach in their management systems, but they have also voiced concerns, including lack of a robust process for doing so. Given the widespread use of state-dependent management in other fields, we conducted an extensive review of the literature on threshold-based management to gain insight into how and where it is applied and identify potential lessons for conservation management. We identified 22 industries using 75 different methods for setting management thresholds in 843 studies. Methods spanned six broad approaches, including expert driven, statistical, predictive, optimization, experimental, and artificial intelligence methods. The objectives of each of these studies influenced the approaches used, including the methods for setting thresholds and selecting actions, and the number of thresholds set. The role of value judgments in setting thresholds was clear; studies across all industries frequently involved experts in setting thresholds, often accompanied by computational tools to simulate the consequences of proposed thresholds under different conditions. Of the 30 conservation studies examined, two-thirds used expert-driven methods, consistent with prior evidence that experience-based information often drives conservation management decisions. The methods we identified from other disciplines could help conservation decision makers set thresholds for management interventions in different contexts, linking monitoring to management actions and ensuring that conservation interventions are timely and effective.

Lecciones de Otras Disciplinas para Establecer Umbrales de Gestión para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad Resumen Una gestión exitosa dependiente del estado, en la que el objetivo del manejo es mantener un sistema en un estado deseado, involucra la definición de los límites entre estados diferentes. Una vez que se definen estos límites, los gestores requieren un plan de acción estratégico con umbrales que inicien las intervenciones de gestión, ya sea para mantener o regresar al sistema a un estado deseado. Este enfoque de la gestión se usa extensamente en diversas industrias, desde la agricultura y la medicina hasta la tecnología de la información, pero sólo ha sido adoptada recientemente dentro de la gestión de la conservación. Quienes practican la conservación han expresado el deseo de integrar este enfoque estructurado a sus sistemas de gestión, pero también han expresado sus preocupaciones al respecto, como la falta de procesos sólidos para lograr esta integración. Debido al uso extenso de la gestión dependiente del estado en otras áreas, realizamos una revisión detallada de la literatura sobre la gestión basada en umbrales para obtener información sobre cómo y dónde se aplica y para identificar los aprendizajes potenciales para la gestión de la conservación. Identificamos 22 industrias que usan 75 métodos diferentes para establecer los umbrales de gestión en 843 estudios. Los métodos abarcaron seis enfoques generales: el impulsado por expertos, el estadístico, el predictivo, el de optimización, el experimental y el artificial. Los objetivos de cada uno de estos estudios influyeron sobre los enfoques utilizados, incluidos los métodos para establecer los umbrales y seleccionar las acciones, así como el número de umbrales establecidos. Fue evidente el papel que jugaron los juicios de valor en el establecimiento de los umbrales; estudios de todas las industrias involucraron con frecuencia a expertos en el establecimiento de los umbrales, con frecuencia acompañados de herramientas computacionales para simular las consecuencias de los umbrales propuestos bajo diferentes condiciones. De los 30 estudios de conservación analizados, dos tercios usaron métodos impulsados por expertos, acorde con la evidencia previa de que la información basada en la experiencia orienta con frecuencia las decisiones de gestión de la conservación. Los métodos que identificamos a partir de otras disciplinas podrían ayudar a los órganos decisorios de la conservación a establecer umbrales para las intervenciones de gestión en diferentes contextos, vinculando las acciones de gestión con las de monitoreo y asegurándose de que las intervenciones de conservación sean oportunas y efectivas. Lecciones de Otras Disciplinas para Establecer Umbrales de Gestión para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad.

An introduction to decision science for conservation.

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision-making, and decision-support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.

Las decisiones sobre la conservación de la biodiversidad son difíciles de tomar, especialmente cuando involucran diferentes valores, objetivos multidimensionales complejos, recursos limitados, urgencia y una incertidumbre considerable. Las ciencias de la decisión incorporan una teoría sobre cómo tomar decisiones difíciles y una variedad extensa de marcos de trabajo y herramientas que transforman esa teoría en práctica. Buscamos mejorar la claridad conceptual y la aplicación práctica de las ciencias de la decisión para ayudar al órgano decisorio a aplicar estas ciencias a los problemas de conservación. Nos enfocamos en las barreras para la aceptación de las ciencias de la decisión, incluyendo la falta de capacitación y de conciencia por estas ciencias; la confusión por la terminología común y cuáles herramientas y marcos de trabajo aplicar; y la impresión errónea de que la aplicación de estas ciencias consume tiempo y debe ser costosa y compleja. Para asistir en la navegación de la literatura extensa y dispar de las ciencias de la decisión, aclaramos el significado de varios términos comunes: ciencias de la decisión, teoría de la decisión, análisis de decisiones, toma estructurada de decisiones y herramientas de apoyo para las decisiones. La aplicación de las ciencias de la decisión no tiene que ser compleja ni debe llevar mucho tiempo; de hecho, todo comienza con saber cómo pensar detenidamente en los componentes de una decisión mediante el análisis de decisiones (es decir, definir el problema, producir objetivos, desarrollar alternativas, estimar consecuencias y realizar compensaciones). Lo anterior se logra de mejor manera mediante la aplicación de una estrategia prototipos rápidos. En cada paso, las herramientas de apoyo para las decisiones pueden proporcionar visión y claridad adicionales, mientras que los marcos de apoyo para las decisiones (p.ej.: gestión de amenazas prioritarias y planeación sistemática de la conservación) pueden asistir en la navegación de los diferentes pasos de un análisis de decisiones para contextos particulares. Resumimos los marcos de trabajo y las herramientas más importantes de apoyo para las decisiones y describimos el paso, y el contexto, del análisis de decisiones para el que es más útil aplicarlos. Nuestra introducción a las ciencias de la decisión apoyará en la contextualización de las estrategias actuales y los nuevos desarrollos, y ayudarán al órgano decisorio a comenzar a aplicar estas ciencias en los problemas de conservación.

Projecting biodiversity benefits of conservation behavior-change programs.

Biodiversity loss is driven by human behavior, but there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of behavior-change programs in delivering benefits to biodiversity. To demonstrate their value, the biodiversity benefits and cost-effectiveness of behavior changes that directly or indirectly affect biodiversity need to be quantified. We adapted a structured decision-making prioritization tool to determine the potential biodiversity benefits of behavior changes. As a case study, we examined two hypothetical behavior-change programs--wildlife gardening and cat containment--by asking experts to consider the behaviors associated with these programs that directly and indirectly affect biodiversity. We assessed benefits to southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus) and superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus) by eliciting from experts estimates of the probability of each species persisting in the landscape given a range of behavior-change scenarios in which uptake of the behaviors varied. We then compared these estimates to a business-as-usual scenario to determine the relative biodiversity benefit and cost-effectiveness of each scenario. Experts projected that the behavior-change programs would benefit biodiversity and that benefits would rise with increasing uptake of the target behaviors. Biodiversity benefits were also predicted to accrue through indirect behaviors, although experts disagreed about the magnitude of additional benefit provided. Scenarios that combined the two behavior-change programs were estimated to provide the greatest benefits to species and be most cost-effective. Our method could be used in other contexts and potentially at different scales and advances the use of prioritization tools to guide conservation behavior-change programs.

Proyección de los beneficios para la biodiversidad obtenidos de los programas de cambios de comportamiento de conservación Resumen La pérdida de la diversidad biológica es causada por el comportamiento humano, pero existe incertidumbre sobre la efectividad que tienen los programas de cambio de comportamiento para otorgar beneficios a la biodiversidad. Para demostrar el valor que poseen, los beneficios para la biodiversidad y la rentabilidad de los cambios de comportamiento que afectan directa o indirectamente a la biodiversidad necesitan ser cuantificados. Adaptamos una herramienta de priorización de toma de decisiones estructurada para determinar el potencial de los beneficios para la biodiversidad obtenidos de los cambios de comportamiento. Como estudio de caso, examinamos dos programas hipotéticos de cambio de comportamiento, la jardinería silvestre y la contención de gatos, mediante la petición a expertos de considerar los comportamientos asociados con estos programas que directa o indirectamente afectan a la biodiversidad. Evaluamos los beneficios para el bandicut café (Isoodon obeselus) y el reyezuelo supremo (Malurus cyaeneus) mediante la obtención de estimaciones de expertos de la probabilidad de que cada especie persista en el paisaje con una gama establecida de escenarios de cambios de comportamiento en los cuales la aceptación de los comportamientos varió. Después comparamos estas estimaciones con un escenario de situación normal para determinar el beneficio relativo para la biodiversidad y la rentabilidad de cada escenario. Los expertos proyectaron que los programas de cambio de comportamiento beneficiarían a la biodiversidad y que los beneficios aumentarían con la creciente aceptación de los comportamientos deseados. También se pronosticó que los beneficios se acumularían mediante comportamientos indirectos, aunque los expertos estuvieron en desacuerdo sobre la magnitud del beneficio adicional proporcionado. Se estimó que los escenarios que combinaron los dos programas de cambio de comportamiento proporcionarían el mayor beneficio para las especies y serían los más rentables. Nuestro método podría usarse en otros contextos y potencialmente a diferentes escalas y fomenta el uso de herramientas de priorización para orientar a los programas de cambios en el comportamiento de conservación.

Multicriteria decisions and portfolio analysis: land acquisition for biological and social objectives.

Resource allocation for land acquisition is a common multiobjective problem that involves complex trade-offs. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service currently uses the Targeted Resource Acquisition Comparison Tool (TRACT) to allocate funds from the Migratory Bird Conservation Fund (MBCF; established through the Migratory Bird Hunting and Conservation Act of 1934) for land acquisition based on cost-benefit analysis, regional priority rankings of candidate land parcels available for acquisition, and the overall biological contribution to duck population objectives. However, current policy encourages decision makers to consider societal and economic benefits of lands acquired, in addition to their biological benefits to waterfowl. These decisions about portfolio elements (i.e., individual land parcels) require an analysis of the difficult trade-offs among multiple objectives. In the last decade the application of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods has been instrumental in aiding decision makers with complex multiobjective decisions. In this study, we present an alternative approach to developing land-acquisition portfolios using MCDA and modern portfolio theory (MPT). We describe the development of a portfolio decision analysis tool using constrained optimization for land-acquisition decisions by the NWRS. We outline the decision framework, describe development of the prototype tool in Microsoft Excel, and test the results of the tool using land parcels submitted as candidates for MBCF funding in 2019. Our results indicate that the constrained optimization outperformed the traditional TRACT method and ad hoc portfolios developed using current NWRS criteria.

Applying a values-based decision process to facilitate comanagement of threatened species in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Ko koe ki tena, ko ahau ki tenai kiwai o te kete (you at that, and I at this handle of the basket). This Maori (New Zealanders of indigenous descent) saying conveys the principle of cooperation-we achieve more through working together, rather than separately. Despite decades of calls to rectify cultural imbalance in conservation, threatened species management still relies overwhelmingly on ideas from Western science and on top-down implementation. Values-based approaches to decision making can be used to integrate indigenous peoples' values into species conservation in a more meaningful way. We used such a values-based method, structured decision making, to develop comanagement of pekapeka (Mystacina tuberculata) (short-tailed bat) and tara iti (Sternula nereis davisae) (Fairy Tern) between Maori and Pakeha (New Zealanders of European descent). We implemented this framework in a series of workshops in which facilitated discussions were used to gather expert knowledge to predict outcomes and make management recommendations. For both species, stakeholders clearly stated their values as fundamental objectives from the start, which allowed alternative strategies to be devised that naturally addressed their diverse values, including matauranga Maori (Maori knowledge and perspectives). On this shared basis, all partners willingly engaged in the process, and decisions were largely agreed to by all. Most expectations of conflicts between values of Western science and Maori culture were unfounded. Where required, positive compromises were made by jointly developing alternative strategies. The values-based process successfully taha wairua taha tangata (brought both worlds together to achieve the objective) through codeveloped recovery strategies. This approach challenges the traditional model of scientists first preparing management plans focused on biological objectives, then consulting indigenous groups for approval. We recommend values-based approaches, such as structured decision making, as powerful methods for development of comanagement conservation plans between different peoples.

Aplicación de un Proceso de Decisiones Basadas en Valores para Facilitar el Comanejo de Especies Amenazadas en Aotearoa Nueva Zelanda Resumen Ko koe ki tena, ko ahau ki tenai kiwai o te kete (tú en ésa y yo en esta asa de la cesta). Este dicho Maori (neozelandeses con ascendencia indígena) expresa el principio de la cooperación - logramos más trabajando juntos que por separado. A pesar de las décadas de peticiones para rectificar el desbalance ambiental que existe en la conservación, el manejo de especies amenazadas todavía depende abrumadoramente de ideas tomadas de la ciencia occidental y en la implementación de arriba-abajo. Los enfoques para la toma de decisiones basados en valores pueden usarse para integrar de manera más significativa los valores de los pueblos indígenas dentro de la conservación de especies. Usamos un método basado en valores, la toma estructurada de decisiones, para desarrollar una estrategia de comanejo del pekapeka (Mystacina tuberculata) (murciélago de cola corta) y el tara iti (Sternula nereis davisae) (charrancito australiano) entre los Maori y los Pakeha (neozelandeses de ascendencia europea). Implementamos este marco de trabajo en una serie de talleres en los cuales se usaron discusiones facilitadas para recabar el conocimiento de los expertos para pronosticar los resultados y realizar recomendaciones de manejo. Para ambas especies, los actores sociales mencionaron claramente a sus valores como objetivos fundamentales desde el inicio, lo que permitió el diseño de estrategias alternativas que consideraran naturalmente estos diferentes valores, incluyendo el matauranga Maori (conocimiento y perspectivas Maori). Sobre esta base compartida, todos los colaboradores participaron voluntariamente en el proceso y la mayoría estuvo de acuerdo con las decisiones. La mayoría de los conflictos esperados entre la ciencia occidental y la cultura Maori no tuvieron fundamentos. En donde fueron requeridos, se realizaron concesiones positivas mediante el desarrollo conjunto de estrategias alternativas. El proceso basado en valores logró exitosamente taha wairua taha tangata (juntó a ambos mundos para conseguir el objetivo) por medio de estrategias de recuperación desarrolladas en conjunto. Esta estrategia desafía el modelo tradicional de los científicos preparando primero los planes de manejo enfocados en objetivos biológicos para después consultar a los grupos indígenas para que los aprueben. Recomendamos estos enfoques basados en valores, como la toma estructurada de decisiones, como métodos poderosos para el desarrollo de planes de conservación que incluyan el comanejo entre diferentes pueblos y personas.

Ex-ante quantification of nutrient, total solids, and water flows in sanitation systems.

To prioritise sustainable sanitation systems in strategic sanitation planning, indicators such as local appropriateness or resource recovery have to be known at the pre-planning phase. The quantification of resource recovery remains a challenge because existing substance flow models require large amounts of input data and can therefore only be applied for a few options at a time for which implementation examples exist. This paper aims to answer two questions: How can we predict resource recovery and losses of sanitation systems ex-ante at the pre-planning phase? And how can we do this efficiently to consider the entire sanitation system option space? The approach builds on an existing model to create all valid sanitation systems from a set of conventional and emerging technologies and to evaluate their appropriateness for a given application case. It complements the previous model with a Substance Flow Model (SFM) and with transfer coefficients from a technology library to quantify nutrients (phosphorus and nitrogen), total solids (as an indicator for energy and organics), and water flows in sanitation systems ex ante. The transfer coefficients are based on literature data and expert judgement. Uncertainties resulting from the variability of literature data or ignorance of experts are explicitly considered, allowing to assess the robustness of the model output. Any (future) technologies or additional products can easily be added to the library. The model is illustrated with a small didactic example showing how 12 valid system configurations are generated from a few technologies, and how substance flows, recovery ratios, and losses to soil, air, and water are quantified considering uncertainties. The recovery ratios vary between 0 and 28% for phosphorus, 0-10% for nitrogen, 0-26% for total solids, and 0-12% for water. The uncertainties reflect the high variability of the literature data but are comparable to those obtained in studies using a conventional post-ante material flow analysis (generally about 30% variability at the scale of a an urban area). Because the model is fully automated and based on literature data, it can be applied ex-ante to a large and diverse set of possible sanitation systems as shown with a real application case. From the 41 technologies available in the library, 101,548 systems are generated and substance flows are modelled. The resulting recovery ratios range from nothing to almost 100%. The two examples also show that recovery depend on technology interactions and has therefore to be assessed for all possible system configurations and not at the single technology level only. The examples also show that there exist trade-offs among different types of reuse (e.g. energy versus nutrients) or different sustainability indicators (e.g. local appropriateness versus resource recovery). These results show that there is a need for such an automated and generic approach that provides recovery data for all system configurations already at the pre-planning phase. The approach presented enables to integrate transparently the best available knowledge for a growing number of sanitation technologies into a planning process. The resulting resource recovery and loss ratios can be used to prioritise resource efficient systems in sanitation planning, either for the pre-selection or the detailed evaluation of options using e.g. MCDA. The results can also be used to guide future development of technology and system innovations. As resource recovery becomes more relevant and novel sanitation technologies and system options emerge, the approach presents itself as a useful tool for strategic sanitation planning in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Developing sanitation planning options: A tool for systematic consideration of novel technologies and systems.

To provide access to sustainable sanitation for the entire world population, novel technologies and systems have been developed. These options are often independent of sewers, water, and energy and therefore promise to be more appropriate for fast-growing urban areas. They also allow for resource recovery and and are adaptable to changing environmental and demographic conditions what makes them more sustainable. More options, however, also enhance planning complexity. Structured decision making (SDM) can help balance opposing interests. Yet, most of the current research focuses on the selection of a preferred option, assuming that a set of appropriate options is available. There is a lack of reproducible methods for the identification of sanitation system planning options that can consider the growing number of available technology and the many possible system configurations. Additionally, there is a lack of data, particularly for novel options, to evaluate the various sustainability criteria for sanitation.To overcome this limitation, we present a novel software supported approach: the SANitation sysTem Alternative GeneratOr (Santiago). To be optimally effective, Santiago is required to be integrated into an SDM approach. In this paper, we present all the elements that such an integration requires and illustrate these methods at the case of Arba Minch, a fast growing town in Ethiopia. Based on this example and experiences from other cases, we discuss the lessons learnt and present the advantages potentially brought by Santiago for sanitation planning The integration requires four elements: a set of technologies to be looked at, decision objectives for sustainable sanitation, screening criteria to evalute technology appropriateness, and about the technologies and the casea. The main output is a set of sanitation system options that is locally appropriate, diverse in order to reveal trade-offs, and of a manageable size. To support the definition of decision objectives, we developed a generic objective hierarchy for sustainable sanitation. Because one of the main challenges lies in the quantification of screening criteria, we established the data for 27 criteria and 41 technologies in a library.The case studies showed, that if the integration is successful, then Santiago can provide substantial benefits: (i) it is systematic and reproducible; (ii) it opens up the decision space with novel and potentially more appropriate solutions; (iii) it makes international data accessible for more empirical decision making; (iv) it enables decisions based on strategic objectives in line with the sustainable development goals; (v) it allows to prioritise appropriate and resource efficient systems right from the beginning (vi) and it contributes to a more citywide inclusive approach by birding strategic objectives with an area-based appropriateness assessment. The here presented approach enables the prioritisation of appropriate and resource efficient sanitation technologies and systems in strategic planning. Thereby this approach contributes to SDG 6.2, 6.3, and 11, sustainable sanitation for all.

[Using structured decision-making to identify the appropriate type of entity for the centers for disease control and prevention of China].

Objective: To develop evidence-based appropriate type of entity for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in order to improve the performance of disease control and prevention system in China. Methods: This study firstly proposed the core functions and essential public health programs for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Using Structured Decision-Making, this study presented three alternative options for type of entity to make essential public health programs succeed, and reviewed the pros and cons of alternative options based on 15 evaluation indicators. Questionnaires were distributed to 47 stakeholders between April 10 and April 20 of 2020. Finally, an appropriate type of entity for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was identified by using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Results: A total of 47 stakeholders ranked alternative options. Aggregated scores of each alternative option was computed after weighting each indicators. The results shows that Option 1(professional technical civil service organization)has the highest score (58.22). Conclusion: Professional technical civil service organization is appropriate type of entity for Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Integration of social and ecological sciences for natural resource decision making: challenges and opportunities.

The last 25 years have witnessed growing recognition that natural resource management decisions depend as much on understanding humans and their social interactions as on understanding the interactions between non-human organisms and their environment. Decision science provides a framework for integrating ecological and social factors into a decision, but challenges to integration remain. The decision-analytic framework elicits values and preferences to help articulate objectives, and then evaluates the outcomes of alternative management actions to achieve these objectives. Integrating social science into these steps can be hindered by failing to include social scientists as more than stakeholder-process facilitators, assuming that specific decision-analytic skills are commonplace for social scientists, misperceptions of social data as inherently qualitative, timescale mismatches for iterating through decision analysis and collecting relevant social data, difficulties in predicting human behavior, and failures of institutions to recognize the importance of this integration. We engage these challenges, and suggest solutions to them, helping move forward the integration of social and biological/ecological knowledge and considerations in decision-making.

Identifying target reference points for harvesting assessment-limited wildlife populations: a case study.

Identifying appropriate strategies for sustainable harvest is a challenge for many terrestrial vertebrate species because of uncertain system dynamics, limited data to inform population models, and potentially conflicting objectives that seek to harvest and maintain populations at desirable levels. The absence of monitoring and assessment infrastructure needed to regularly estimate abundance accentuates this challenge for many species, and limits application of rigorous state-dependent frameworks for decision making that are commonly advocated in natural resource management. Reference points, which define management targets or triggers for changing management, are often used to guide decision-making, but suffer from ambiguity when developed without explicit consideration of uncertainty or trade-offs among competing objectives. We describe an approach for developing unambiguous target reference points for assessment-limited species using structured decision making, and demonstrate the approach to develop target harvest rates for management of fall Wild Turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) harvests in the face of uncertain population and harvest dynamics. We use simulation and decision analyses to identify harvest rates that are optimal for accomplishing explicit management objectives in the face of uncertainty, and harvest rates with robust performance over broad regions of the demographic and harvest model parameter space. We demonstrate that population and harvest parameters commonly uncertain to wildlife managers interact to determine appropriate target harvest rates for Wild Turkeys, and that formally acknowledging a range of plausible values for structurally uncertain parameters results in more conservative target reference points than suggested by previously published studies. The structured decision making framework described here provides a natural conceptual and quantitative framework for extending our approach to develop unambiguous harvest targets for other assessment-limited wildlife populations while formally acknowledging structural uncertainty in system dynamics.

Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making.

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland-urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management.

Adaptive management for soil ecosystem services.

Ecosystem services provided by soil include regulation of the atmosphere and climate, primary (including agricultural) production, waste processing, decomposition, nutrient conservation, water purification, erosion control, medical resources, pest control, and disease mitigation. The simultaneous production of these multiple services arises from complex interactions among diverse aboveground and belowground communities across multiple scales. When a system is mismanaged, non-linear and persistent losses in ecosystem services can arise. Adaptive management is an approach to management designed to reduce uncertainty as management proceeds. By developing alternative hypotheses, testing these hypotheses and adjusting management in response to outcomes, managers can probe dynamic mechanistic relationships among aboveground and belowground soil system components. In doing so, soil ecosystem services can be preserved and critical ecological thresholds avoided. Here, we present an adaptive management framework designed to reduce uncertainty surrounding the soil system, even when soil ecosystem services production is not the explicit management objective, so that managers can reach their management goals without undermining soil multifunctionality or contributing to an irreversible loss of soil ecosystem services.