Understanding responses of people with ASD in diverse reasoning tasks: A formal study.

Recent studies have shown that in some reasoning tasks people with Autism Spectrum Disorder perform better than typically developing people. This paper compares four such tasks, namely a syllogistic task, two decision-making tasks, and a task from the heuristics and biases literature, the aim being to identify common structure as well as differences. In the terminology of David Marr's three levels of cognitive systems, the tasks show commonalities on the computational level in terms of the effect of contextual stimuli, though an in-depth analysis of such contexts provides certain distinguishing features in the algorithmic level. We also make some general remarks on our approach, so as to set the stage for further studies in the area which could provide a better understanding of the reasoning process of ASD individuals.

Sunk-Cost Bias and Knowing When to Terminate a Research Project.

Scientific research is an open-ended quest where success usually triumphs over failure. The tremendous success of science obscures the tendency for the non-linear discovery process to take longer and cost more than expected. Perseverance through detours and past setbacks requires a significant commitment that is fueled by scientific optimism; the same optimism required to overcome challenges simultaneously exacerbates the very human tendency to continue a line of inquiry when the likelihood of success is minimal, the so-called sunk-cost bias. This Viewpoint Article shows how the psychological phenomenon of sunk-cost bias influences medicinal, pharmaceutical, and organic chemists by comparing how the respective industrial and academic practitioners approach sunk-cost bias; a series of interviews and illustrative quotes provide a rich trove of data to address this seldom discussed, yet potentially avoidable research cost. The concluding strategies recommended for mitigating against sunk-cost bias should benefit not only medicinal, pharmaceutical, and organic chemists but a wide array of chemistry practitioners.

Eliminating buyer's remorse: An examination of the sunk cost fallacy in the National Hockey League draft.

The sunk cost effect describes the tendency to escalate one's commitment toward a certain endeavor, despite diminishing returns, as a consequence of irreversible resource expenditure that has already been made (Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 1985;35:124). This effect has been observed in a number of professional sports leagues, wherein teams escalate their commitment toward players selected early in the draft, regardless of performance outcomes, due to large financial commitments invested in them (J Sports Econom. 2017;18:282; Adm Sci Q. 1995;40:474). This effect, however, has yet to be explored in the National Hockey League (NHL). The purpose of this study was to test for sunk cost effects in the NHL, by examining the relationship between draft order and playing time, while controlling for a myriad of confounding variables. Findings from our analyses provide support for the existence of this effect in the NHL, as first-round draftees were given significantly more playing time than their peers selected in the second round, regardless of injury, player relocation, penalties, or on-ice performance outcomes. We offer some plausible underlying mechanisms driving this effect. Furthermore, we suggest the observed effects have valuable implications for NHL talent development, given the importance of playing time on various aspects of expertise attainment.

Harm to others reduces the sunk-cost effect.

The sunk-cost effect (SCE) is the tendency to continue investing in something that is not working out because of previous investments that cannot be recovered. In three experiments, we examine the SCE when continued investment violates the ethic of care by harming others. In Experiment 1, the SCE was smaller if the sunk-cost decision resulted in harmful consequences towards others (an interaction between sunk cost and the ethic of care). In Experiment 2, participants considered vignettes from their own or another person's perspective. We observed an interpersonal SCE - people showed the SCE when taking the perspective of others. We did not replicate the interaction found in Experiment 1. In Experiment 3, we used statistically more powerful analyses - Bayesian sequential hypothesis testing - to examine the interaction between sunk cost and the ethic of care. We found evidence in favor of the interaction; the SCE was smaller if the sunk-cost decision harmed others. We suggest that violating one's ethic of care de-biases decision-making by overshadowing sunk costs. These findings may help explain decision-making in real-world situations involving large investments.

Impact of past experiences on decision-making in autism spectrum disorder.

People are often influenced by past costs in their current decision-making, thus succumbing to a well-known bias recognized as the sunk cost effect. A recent study showed that the sunk cost effect is attenuated in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, the study only addressed one situation of utilization decision by focusing on the choice between similar attractive alternatives with different levels of sunk costs. Thus, it remains unclear how individuals with ASD behave under sunk costs in different types of decision situations, particularly progress decisions, in which the decision-maker allocates additional resources to an initially chosen alternative. The sunk cost effect in progress decisions was estimated using an economic task designed to assess the effect of the past investments on current decision-making. Twenty-four individuals with ASD and 21 age-, sex-, smoking status-, education-, and intelligence quotient-level-matched typical development (TD) subjects were evaluated. The TD participants were more willing to make the second incremental investment if a previous investment was made, indicating that their decisions were influenced by sunk costs. However, unlike the TD group, the rates of investments were not significantly increased after prior investments in the ASD group. The results agree with the previous evidence of a reduced sensitivity to context stimuli in individuals with ASD and help us obtain a broader picture of the impact of sunk costs on their decision-making. Our findings will contribute to a better understanding of ASD and may be useful in addressing practical implications of their socioeconomic behavior.

The road ahead for sunk costs.

The sunk cost error is usually ascribed to the "ghost" of past investments, but the "promise-of-a-better-future" account is often difficult to dismiss. The search for the underpinning mechanism(s) is ongoing, but it should go hand-in-hand with a functional account.

Transcranial Stimulation Over the Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex Increases the Impact of Past Expenses on Decision-Making.

Goal-directed choices should be guided by the expected value of the available options. However, people are often influenced by past costs in their decisions, thus succumbing to a bias known as the "sunk-cost effect." Recent functional magnetic resonance imaging data show that the sunk-cost effect is associated with increased activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) and altered crosstalk of the dlPFC with other prefrontal areas. Are these correlated neural processes causally involved in the sunk-cost effect? Here, we employed transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) to examine the role of the dlPFC for biasing choices in line with the cost of past expenses. Specifically, we applied different types of tDCS over the right dlPFC while participants performed an investment task designed to assess the impact of past investments on current choices. Our results show a pronounced sunk-cost effect that was significantly increased by anodal tDCS, but left unaltered by cathodal or sham stimulation. Importantly, choices were not affected by stimulation when no prior investments had been made, underlining the specificity of the obtained effect. Our findings suggest a critical role of the dlPFC in the sunk-cost effect and thus elucidate neural mechanisms by which past investments may influence current decision-making.

The Cost of Implementing New Strategies (COINS): A Method for Mapping Implementation Resources Using the Stages of Implementation Completion.

OBJECTIVE: Illustrate the value of a strategy used for measuring the costs and resources used in the implementation process over and above the costs of the intervention itself in the context of a two-arm randomized controlled trial. METHODS: Counties in California and Ohio (sites) were invited to implement Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care (MTFC), an alternative to congregate care for youth. Participating sites (n=53) were randomized to one of two implementation = sites share information and move through the implementation process as a cohort facilitated by an MTFC purveyor or (2) Individual Implementation (IND: "as usual") where sites work individually with the MTFC purveyor. The implementations were monitored using the Stages of Implementation Completion (SIC) measure of a number of observable activities, developed as part of the trial to segment the implementation process into 8 stages of implementation. Resource data gathered from the implementation purveyors and site participants were used to map costs onto each of the 8 stages to generate total cost measures stratified by type of resource and stage of implementation for each of the study arms. RESULTS: The SIC provided a feasible costing template to map costs onto observable activities and to enable the examination of important differences in implementation strategies for an evidence-based practice. The average total implementation cost prior to program start-up of CDT was $133,106; IND cost $118,699. While CDT cost more in a number of stages, it resulted in fewer county staff hours being used and shorter mean times to implementation than IND. In cases where rapidity of implementation of reducing staff time required for implementation is valued, then CDT would be the preferable implementation approach. CONCLUSIONS: The SIC is a useful tool for determining implementation resources needed for new evidence-based practice programs for youth and particularly for comparing different implementation strategies that might be tried in pilot programs.

Striatal dopamine integrates cost, benefit, and motivation.

Striatal dopamine (DA) release has long been linked to reward processing, but it remains controversial whether DA release reflects costs or benefits and how these signals vary with motivation. Here, we measure DA release in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and dorsolateral striatum (DLS) while independently varying costs and benefits and apply behavioral economic principles to determine a mouse's level of motivation. We reveal that DA release in both structures incorporates both reward magnitude and sunk cost. Surprisingly, motivation was inversely correlated with reward-evoked DA release. Furthermore, optogenetically evoked DA release was also heavily dependent on sunk cost. Our results reconcile previous disparate findings by demonstrating that striatal DA release simultaneously encodes cost, benefit, and motivation but in distinct manners over different timescales. Future work will be necessary to determine whether the reduction in phasic DA release in highly motivated animals is due to changes in tonic DA levels.

Emotions before actions: When children see costs as causal.

Adults expect people to be biased by sunk costs, but young children do not. We tested between two accounts for why children overlook the sunk cost bias. On one account, children do not see sunk costs as causal. The other account posits that children see sunk costs as causal, but unlike adults, think future actions cannot make up for sunk costs. These accounts make opposing predictions about whether children should see sunk costs as affecting emotions. Across three experiments, 4-7-year-olds (total N = 320) and adults (total N = 429) saw stories about characters who collected items that were easy or difficult to obtain, and predicted characters' emotions and actions. At all ages, participants anticipated that characters would feel sadder about high-cost objects, but only adults predicted that characters would keep high-cost objects. Our findings show that children see incurred costs as causal, and that costs are integrated children's and adults' theory of emotions. Moreover, the findings suggest that developmental differences in sunk cost reasoning may rest in children's incomplete mental accounting. We also discuss children's reasoning about rational and irrational action.

Resistance to Sunk Cost Propensity Moderate Relationship between Negative Life Event and Hopelessness.

Previous research has found that a negative life event is a main risk factor for hopelessness, which in turn is considered to be a proximal cause of major depression disorder and a suicide risk factor. Unfortunately, very little attention has been paid to the role of decision-making constructs between negative life events and hopelessness. To fill this gap, the present study aims to test the moderation role of sunk cost propensity in this relationship, which is an over-generalized tendency to persist, based on past investment. A total of 495 university students completed assessment of their resistance to sunk cost propensity, whereas the negative life events, hopelessness, mental health state (depression, anxiety) and big-five personality traits were measured by various questionnaires. Participants' tendency to resist sunk cost propensity moderated the relationship between negative life events and hopelessness. Individuals who tended to resist sunk cost bias are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of negative life events. This effect is still significant, even after controlling for individuals' psychological well-being (depression, anxiety) and big-five personality traits. The current findings provide preliminary evidence that resistance to sunk cost propensity may be an important characteristic associated with an individual's hopelessness when exposed to a negative life event.

Heterogeneity, sunk cost, and export performance: A firm level study of Pakistan's textile sector.

The textile sector is a significant exporting sector of Pakistan. This study examines the determinants of the export performance of Pakistani textile firms using firm-level panel data from 2008 to 2018. Under the framework of the dynamic System Generalized Method of Moment (SGMM) methodology, our findings suggest that both sunk costs and firm-specific characteristics like productivity, age, and size are important determinants of textile exports. Further, the study also observes that firms with a high number of export destinations and greater product diversification tend to export more. The year-specific dummies reveal that textile export performance is adversely affected by the energy crisis in 2012. We recommend that Pakistan should support large, experienced, and productive textile exporter firms to boost textile exports. Besides, more assistance should be provided regarding potential overseas markets to the existing and new export firms.

Sunk costs under stress: Acute stress reduces the impact of past expenses on risky decisions.

Rational choice should be guided solely by the prospects of available options. However, our decisions are often influenced by irrecoverable past costs, even when the current course of action turns out to be unfavorable, reflecting a cognitive bias known as the "sunk-cost effect". In everyday life, many decisions are made under stress or elicit stress themselves. Whether and how stress impacts the sunk-cost effect, however, is not known. Based on evidence suggesting that the sunk-cost effect critically depends on the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, which in turn is highly sensitive to stress, we hypothesized that stress may reduce the influence of past expenses on current decisions. Participants underwent a psychosocial stress manipulation or control procedure, before we assessed their sunk-cost tendency in a monetary investment task. Overall, participants showed a pronounced sunk-cost effect, particularly for options with low expected value. Acute stress reduced this tendency to invest in risky options with low probability of success following high prior investments. Moreover, the strength of this reduction of the sunk-cost effect was predicted by individual cortisol reactivity. These findings show that acute stress may reduce the impact of past expenses on current choice and that this effect may be mediated by glucocorticoid action.

Exploring the determinants of reinvestment decisions: Sense of personal responsibility, preferences, and loss framing.

Two potentially costly errors are common in sequential investment decisions: sticking too long to a failing course of action (escalation of commitment), and abandoning a successful course of action prematurely. Past research has mostly focused on escalation of commitment, and identified three critical determinants: personal responsibility, preferences for prior decisions, and decision framing. We demonstrate in three studies using an incentivized poker inspired task that these determinants of escalation reliably lead decision makers to keep investing even when real money is on the line. We observed in Experiments 1, 2 and 3 that reinvestments were more likely when decision makers were personally responsible for prior decisions. This likelihood was also increased when the decision makers had indicated a preference for initial investments (Experiments 2 and 3), and when outcomes were framed in terms of losses as compared to gains (Experiment 3). Both types of decision errors - escalation of commitment and prematurely abandoning a course of action - could be traced to the same set of determinants. Being personally responsible for prior decisions, having a preference for the initial investment, and loss framing did increase escalation, whereas lacking personal responsibility, having no preference for the initial investment, and gain framing increased the likelihood of prematurely opting out. Finally, personal responsibility had a negative effect on decision quality, as decision-makers were still more likely to reinvest when they were personally responsible for prior decisions, than when prior decisions were assigned optimally by an algorithm (Experiments 2 and 3).

Meditation in the Workplace: Does Mindfulness Reduce Bias and Increase Organisational Citizenship Behaviours?

Mindfulness is becoming increasingly popular in the workplace. This likely relates to a growing body of research linking mindfulness to a range of psychological outcomes such as reduced anxiety, depression and increased subjective wellbeing. However, while mindfulness has received a great deal of attention in clinical research, the evidence for workplace relevant benefits is less established. Additionally, outside of clinical research, mindfulness studies have rarely been replicated. Recent evidence suggests that the cognitive skills cultivated during meditation may be instrumental in reducing biased thinking and increasing prosocial behaviour, but these findings have not been previously tested in a workplace setting. Specifically, mindfulness has been linked to reductions in implicit age bias, sunk-cost decision-making bias and increases in organisational citizenship behaviours (OCB). In two experiments using a workplace and laboratory sample, the present investigation aimed to test the reliability and generalisability of previous findings that a brief mindfulness meditation can reduce age and sunk-cost decision-making biases. To more directly test the potential positive benefits of mindfulness in a workplace setting, this study also investigated the impact of a mindfulness intervention on intention to perform OCB. While meditation significantly increased OCB intent, predictions relating to bias were not supported. Considerations for the degree to which empirical evidence aligns with claims in popular culture, along with implications for the practical uses of mindfulness in the workplace are explored.

Sunk cost effects hinge on the neural recalibration of reference points in mental accounting.

The context of reinforcement history drastically influences human value-based choices. Mental accounting theory concerns how prior outcomes are perceived, combined and assigned into specific "mental" accounts to influence subsequent decisions but remains agnostic about the underlying computational and neural mechanisms. In a two-stage sequential decision-making task, we found previously incurred costs and bonuses biased subjects' choices in the opposite directions with similar magnitudes. Such effects were consistent with a computational model where the reference point was recalibrated by prior gains and losses encoded in the ventral striatum activities. Moreover, individual's susceptibility to prior outcomes was captured by the response of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and its functional connectivity with the medial orbitofrontal cortex, whose activity tracked the value of the chosen option. Our findings provide both behavioral and neural evidence of how sunk costs, benefits, and prospects are integrated within the mental accounting framework to influence choice behavior.

Vicarious Trial-and-Error Is Enhanced During Deliberation in Human Virtual Navigation in a Translational Foraging Task.

Foraging tasks provide valuable insights into decision-making as animals decide how to allocate limited resources (such as time). In rodents, vicarious trial-and-error (back and forth movements), or VTE, is an important behavioral measure of deliberation which is enhanced early in learning and when animals are presented with difficult decisions. Using new translational versions of a rodent foraging task (the "Movie Row" and "Candy Row"), humans navigated a virtual maze presented on standard computers to obtain rewards (either short videos or candy) offered after a variable delay. Decision latencies were longer when participants were presented with difficult offers, overrode their preferences, and when they accepted an offer after rejecting a previous offer. In these situations, humans showed VTE-like behavior, where they were more likely to pause and/or reorient one or more times before making a decision. Behavior on these tasks replicated previous results from the rodent foraging task ("Restaurant Row") and a human version lacking a navigation component ("Web-Surf") and revealed some species differences. Compared to survey measures of delay-discounting, willingness to wait for rewards in the foraging task was not related to willingness to wait for hypothetical rewards. And, smoking status (use of cigarettes or e-cigarettes) was associated with stronger discounting of hypothetical future rewards, but was not well-related to performance on the foraging tasks. In contrast, individuals with overweight or obese BMI (≥25) did not show stronger delay-discounting, but individuals with BMI ≥ 25, and especially females, showed reduced sensitivity to sunk-costs (where their decisions were less sensitive to irrecoverable investments of effort) and less deliberation when presented with difficult offers. These data indicate that VTE is a behavioral index of deliberation in humans, and further support the Movie and Candy Row as translational tools to study decision-making in humans with the potential to provide novel insights about decision-making that are relevant to public health.

Blind to Bias? Young Children Do Not Anticipate that Sunk Costs Lead to Irrational Choices.

Young children anticipate that others act rationally in light of their beliefs and desires, and environmental constraints. However, little is known about whether children anticipate others' irrational choices. We investigated young children's ability to predict that sunk costs can lead to irrational choices. Across four experiments, 5- to 6-year-olds (total N = 185) and adults (total N = 117) judged which of two identical objects an agent would keep, one obtained at a high cost or one obtained at a low cost. In Experiment 1, adults predicted that the agent would choose the high-cost object over the low-cost one, whereas children responded at chance. Experiment 2 replicated these findings in children, but also included another condition which showed they were sensitive to future costs. They predicted that an agent would be more likely to seek out a low-cost item than a high-cost item. Experiments 3 and 4 then found that children do not anticipate the sunk cost bias in first person scenarios, or in interpersonal sunk cost scenarios, where costs are sunk by others. Taken together, our findings suggest that young children may struggle to understand and predict irrational behavior. The findings also reveal an asymmetry between how they consider sunk costs and future costs in understanding actions. We propose that this asymmetry might arise because children do not consider sunk costs as wasted.

Multiple performances and paradoxical effects of China's vehicle emission reduction policy.

As the living standards of urban residents in China continue to improve, the number of motor vehicle trips is increasing, thus aggravating air pollution. Such pollution causes great harm to human health and the global environment. Using a system dynamics approach, this study analyzed the effect of implementation mode on China's air pollution charging fee (APCF) policy and identified potentially negative medium- and long-term effects. The results indicated that the APCF policy has a dual effect under the single-charge mode (i.e., fees are charged on a daily basis). On the one hand, it has multiple effects of reducing emissions, relieving traffic congestion, and improving the happiness index. On the other hand, the higher the charge, the stronger the trip demand (possibly due to the sunk-cost fallacy and loss-aversion effect), which encourages motorists to weaken the cost of losses (i.e., from air pollution fees) by increasing the number of trips per day to seek short-term psychological balance, regardless of the extra costs and the amount of pollution generated. It was also found that APCF implementation mode significantly affected passenger car trips but not truck trips (perhaps because truck trips are mainly based on the demand of supply, and the daily number of trips is relatively stable). Overall, as APCF increases, it can have some paradoxical long-term effects on emissions, congestion, the happiness index, and road bearing capacity. This study's findings can help the Chinese government improve and optimize its long-term air pollution control strategies.

Are Continued Efforts to Reduce Radiation Exposures from X-Rays Warranted?

There are pressures to avoid use of radiological imaging throughout all healthcare due to the notion that all radiation is carcinogenic. This perception stems from the long-standing use of the linear no-threshold (LNT) assumption of risk associated with radiation exposures. This societal perception has led to relentless efforts to avoid and reduce radiation exposures to patients at great costs. Many radiation reduction campaigns have been launched to dissuade doctors from using radiation imaging. Lower-dose imaging techniques and practices are being advocated. Alternate imaging procedures are encouraged. Are these efforts warranted? Based on recent evidence, LNT ideology is shown to be defunct for risk assessment at low-dose exposure ranges which includes X-rays and CT scans. In fact, the best evidence that was once used to support LNT ideology, including the Life Span Study data, now indicates thresholds for cancer induction are high; therefore, low-dose X-rays cannot cause harm. Current practices are safe as exposures currently encountered are orders of magnitude below threshold levels shown to be harmful. As long as imaging is medically warranted, it is shown that efforts to reduce exposures that are within background radiation levels and that are also shown to enhance health by upregulating natural adaptive protection systems are definitively wasted resources.