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1.
Cell ; 187(19): 5195-5216, 2024 Sep 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39303686

RESUMO

Microorganisms, including bacteria, archaea, viruses, fungi, and protists, are essential to life on Earth and the functioning of the biosphere. Here, we discuss the key roles of microorganisms in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), highlighting recent and emerging advances in microbial research and technology that can facilitate our transition toward a sustainable future. Given the central role of microorganisms in the biochemical processing of elements, synthesizing new materials, supporting human health, and facilitating life in managed and natural landscapes, microbial research and technologies are directly or indirectly relevant for achieving each of the SDGs. More importantly, the ubiquitous and global role of microbes means that they present new opportunities for synergistically accelerating progress toward multiple sustainability goals. By effectively managing microbial health, we can achieve solutions that address multiple sustainability targets ranging from climate and human health to food and energy production. Emerging international policy frameworks should reflect the vital importance of microorganisms in achieving a sustainable future.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Sustentável , Humanos , Nações Unidas , Objetivos , Bactérias/metabolismo , Saúde Global , Fungos/metabolismo
2.
Cell ; 179(6): 1255-1263.e12, 2019 Nov 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31778652

RESUMO

The living world is largely divided into autotrophs that convert CO2 into biomass and heterotrophs that consume organic compounds. In spite of widespread interest in renewable energy storage and more sustainable food production, the engineering of industrially relevant heterotrophic model organisms to use CO2 as their sole carbon source has so far remained an outstanding challenge. Here, we report the achievement of this transformation on laboratory timescales. We constructed and evolved Escherichia coli to produce all its biomass carbon from CO2. Reducing power and energy, but not carbon, are supplied via the one-carbon molecule formate, which can be produced electrochemically. Rubisco and phosphoribulokinase were co-expressed with formate dehydrogenase to enable CO2 fixation and reduction via the Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle. Autotrophic growth was achieved following several months of continuous laboratory evolution in a chemostat under intensifying organic carbon limitation and confirmed via isotopic labeling.


Assuntos
Biomassa , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Carbono/metabolismo , Escherichia coli/metabolismo , Adaptação Fisiológica/genética , Aminoácidos/metabolismo , Processos Autotróficos/fisiologia , Isótopos de Carbono , Evolução Molecular Direcionada , Escherichia coli/genética , Marcação por Isótopo , Engenharia Metabólica , Análise do Fluxo Metabólico , Mutação/genética
3.
Trends Biochem Sci ; 48(1): 5-8, 2023 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36563657

RESUMO

Scientific discovery has advanced human society in countless ways, but research requires the expenditure of energy and resources. This Scientific Life article details one laboratory's efforts to reduce the environmental impact of wet-lab research and provides a series of resources to improve lab sustainability.

4.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(3): e2206184120, 2024 Jan 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38190527

RESUMO

Sustainability and migration are typically treated as discrete policy spheres in international, national, and local fora, separated in governance structures and institutions. This results in policy incoherence that hinders just transitions toward more sustainable societies cognizant of mobile realities. This explorative effort identifies the (dis)connections between policy domains using data collected on how the sustainability-migration nexus is governed in four countries with a special emphasis on urban areas: Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United States. Results of 73 interviews show that migration and sustainability actors find it challenging to see how they could be working together and that migrants are rarely conceived of as sustainability actors and/or targeted populations of sustainability policy. Despite the cross-sectoral nature of sustainability, it appears that migration and sustainability are sequestered into silos that hinder collaborative actions. Lamenting the existence of silos is not enough to encourage new lines of thinking or practice in how sustainability is governed; therefore, we examine the evidence to ascertain current barriers blocking synergetic governance and the opportunities for change perceived by respondents via three critical elements of transformations toward sustainability: structural, systemic, and enabling conditions. We argue that for sustainability transitions to happen, a wider set of societal actors needs to be included from policy intention to action, but that this transformation may require more than policy integration via horizontal coordination. It demands reflexivity and pluralistic pathways that close vertical gaps between national and municipal levels and diminish structural inequalities as they intersect with migration type and status.

5.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(3): e2206190120, 2024 Jan 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38190530

RESUMO

Climate change might catalyze and exacerbate the trend of outmigration from low-lying atoll islands. There is speculation that migration away from atolls may not stop until such islands are abandoned. Yet migration creates both opportunities and risks for the sustainability of atoll communities. There is a trade-off between reduced demographic pressure on increasingly fragile atoll island environments and the financial and human resources necessary to adapt to climate change that can result from migration. Here we propose and analyze belonging as the centripetal force that makes migration a process that enhances the sustainability of atoll populations. We examine the relationship between migration, belonging, and the sustainability of populations on atoll islands based on data collected in three atoll islands in the Pacific: the island state of Niue; Namdrik Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands; and Budibudi atoll (Laughlan Islands) in Papua New Guinea. In each case, belonging binds the people who live in and migrate from these places into a collective commitment to their continuity, yet it does so to different degrees according to the economic opportunities available to migrants and the infrastructure that enables extended communities to remain connected.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Emigração e Imigração , Humanos , Catálise , Micronésia , Papua Nova Guiné
6.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(32): e2310079121, 2024 Aug 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39074271

RESUMO

California agriculture will undergo significant transformations over the next few decades in response to climate extremes, environmental regulation and policy encouraging environmental justice, and economic pressures that have long driven agricultural changes. With several local climates suited to a variety of crops, periodically abundant nearby precipitation, and public investments that facilitated abundant low-priced irrigation water, California hosts one of the most diverse and productive agroecosystems in the world. California farms supply nearly half of the high-nutrient fruit, tree nut, and vegetable production in the United States. Climate change impacts on productivity and profitability of California agriculture are increasing and forebode problems for standard agricultural practices, especially water use norms. We highlight many challenges California agriculture confronts under climate change through the direct and indirect impacts on the biophysical conditions and ecosystem services that drive adaptations in farm practices and water accessibility and availability. In the face of clear conflicts among competing interests, we consider ongoing and potential sustainable and equitable solutions, with particular attention to how technology and policy can facilitate progress.


Assuntos
Agricultura , Mudança Climática , California , Agricultura/métodos , Ecossistema , Abastecimento de Água , Produtos Agrícolas/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Irrigação Agrícola , Água
7.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(38): e2311496121, 2024 Sep 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39250669

RESUMO

Urbanization has accelerated dramatically across the world over the past decades. Urban influence on surface temperatures is now being considered as a correction term in climatological datasets. Although prior research has investigated urban influences on precipitation for specific cities or selected thunderstorm cases, a comprehensive examination of urban precipitation anomalies on a global scale remains limited. This research is a global analysis of urban precipitation anomalies for over one thousand cities worldwide. We find that more than 60% of the global cities and their downwind regions are receiving more precipitation than the surrounding rural areas. Moreover, the magnitude of these urban wet islands has nearly doubled in the past 20 y. Urban precipitation anomalies exhibit variations across different continents and climates, with cities in Africa, for example, exhibiting the largest urban annual and extreme precipitation anomalies. Cities are more prone to substantial urban precipitation anomalies under warm and humid climates compared to cold and dry climates. Cities with larger populations, pronounced urban heat island effects, and higher aerosol loads also show noticeable precipitation enhancements. This research maps global urban rainfall hotspots, establishing a foundation for the consideration of urban rainfall corrections in climatology datasets. This advancement holds promise for projecting extreme precipitation and fostering the development of more resilient cities in the future.

8.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(32): e2310077121, 2024 Aug 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39074269

RESUMO

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California's coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California's sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California's iconic coastal region.

9.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(37): e2407455121, 2024 Sep 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39240971

RESUMO

Succinic acid (SA), a dicarboxylic acid of industrial importance, can be efficiently produced by metabolically engineered Mannheimia succiniciproducens. Although the importance of magnesium (Mg2+) ion on SA production has been evident from our previous studies, the role of Mg2+ ion remains largely unexplored. In this study, we investigated the impact of Mg2+ ion on SA production and developed a hyper-SA producing strain of M. succiniciproducens by reconstructing the Mg2+ ion transport system. To achieve this, optimal alkaline neutralizer comprising Mg2+ ion was developed and the physiological effect of Mg2+ ion was analyzed. Subsequently, the Mg2+ ion transport system was reconstructed by introducing an efficient Mg2+ ion transporter from Salmonella enterica. A high-inoculum fed-batch fermentation of the final engineered strain produced 152.23 ± 0.99 g/L of SA, with a maximum productivity of 39.64 ± 0.69 g/L/h. These findings highlight the importance of Mg2+ ions and transportation system optimization in succinic acid production by M. succiniciproducens.


Assuntos
Fermentação , Magnésio , Mannheimia , Ácido Succínico , Ácido Succínico/metabolismo , Magnésio/metabolismo , Mannheimia/metabolismo , Mannheimia/genética , Engenharia Metabólica/métodos , Proteínas de Bactérias/metabolismo , Proteínas de Bactérias/genética , Proteínas de Transporte de Cátions/metabolismo , Proteínas de Transporte de Cátions/genética
10.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(8): e2215674121, 2024 Feb 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38359297

RESUMO

Sustainability outcomes are influenced by the laws and configurations of natural and engineered systems as well as activities in socio-economic systems. An important subset of human activity is the creation and implementation of institutions, formal and informal rules shaping a wide range of human behavior. Understanding these rules and codifying them in computational models can provide important missing insights into why systems function the way they do (static) as well as the pace and structure of transitions required to improve sustainability (dynamic). Here, we conduct a comparative synthesis of three modeling approaches- integrated assessment modeling, engineering-economic optimization, and agent-based modeling-with underexplored potential to represent institutions. We first perform modeling experiments on climate mitigation systems that represent specific aspects of heterogeneous institutions, including formal policies and institutional coordination, and informal attitudes and norms. We find measurable but uneven aggregate impacts, while more politically meaningful distributional impacts are large across various actors. Our results show that omitting institutions can influence the costs of climate mitigation and miss opportunities to leverage institutional forces to speed up emissions reduction. These experiments allow us to explore the capacity of each modeling approach to represent insitutions and to lay out a vision for the next frontier of endogenizing institutional change in sustainability science models. To bridge the gap between modeling, theories, and empirical evidence on social institutions, this research agenda calls for joint efforts between sustainability modelers who wish to explore and incorporate institutional detail, and social scientists studying the socio-political and economic foundations for sustainability transitions.


Assuntos
Modelos Teóricos , Análise de Sistemas , Humanos
11.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(32): e2317686121, 2024 Aug 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39074272

RESUMO

Indigenous communities in the North American Arctic are characterized by mixed economies that feature hunting, fishing, gathering, and trapping activities-and associated sharing practices-alongside the formal wage economy. The region is also undergoing rapid social, economic, and climate changes, including, in Canada, carbon taxation, which is impacting the cost of fuel used in local food harvesting. Because of the importance of local foods to nutrition, health, and well-being in Arctic Indigenous communities, there is an urgent need to better understand the sensitivity of Arctic food systems to social, economic, and climate changes and to develop plans for mitigating potential adverse effects. Here, we develop a Bayesian model to calculate the substitution value and carbon emissions of market replacements for local food harvests in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Canada. Our estimates suggest that under plausible scenarios, replacing locally harvested foods with imported market substitutes would cost over 3.1 million Canadian dollars per year and emit over 1,000 tons of CO2-equivalent emissions per year, regardless of the shipping scenario. In contrast, we estimate that gasoline inputs to harvesting cost approximately $295,000 and result in 315 to 497 tons of emissions. These results indicate that climate change policies that fail to account for local food production may undermine emissions targets and adversely impact food security and health in Arctic Indigenous communities, who already experience a high cost of living and high rates of food insecurity.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Abastecimento de Alimentos , Canadá , Abastecimento de Alimentos/economia , Humanos , Mudança Climática/economia , Regiões Árticas , Teorema de Bayes , Carbono/metabolismo , Povos Indígenas , Alimentos/economia , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo
12.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(32): e2310080121, 2024 Aug 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39074270

RESUMO

One of California's most pressing social and environmental challenges is the rapid expansion of the wildlands-urban interface (WUI). Multiple issues associated with WUI growth compared to more dense and compact urban form are of concern-including greatly increased fire risk, greenhouse gas emissions, and fragmentation of habitat. However, little is understood about the factors driving this growth in the first place and, specifically, its relationship to urban-regional housing dynamics. This paper connects work in urban social science, urban and regional planning, and natural sciences to highlight the potential role of housing crises in driving displacement from the urban core to relatively more affordable exurbs, and with this, WUI growth. We analyze this relationship in California, which leads the nation in lack of affordable housing, scale of WUI growth, and many associated WUI hazards, including wildfire. We offer three related arguments: first, that California's affordable housing crisis, with its effect of driving migration to exurban areas, should be recognized as a significant urban form-related sustainability challenge; second, that to understand this challenge scholars must expand the spatial scale and analytic toolkit of both urban and WUI analysis through relational, mixed methods research; and third, that political and programmatic efforts to address California's housing crisis should undergird efforts to address WUI growth and climate change. Ultimately, we argue that expanding access to affordable urban housing can produce a more sustainable and just urban form that mitigates WUI-related climate and environmental impacts and reduces the vulnerability of growing numbers of WUI residents living in harm's way.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Habitação , California , Humanos , Ecossistema , Incêndios Florestais , Geografia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Cidades
13.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(18): e2215682121, 2024 Apr 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38648481

RESUMO

Sustainability challenges related to food production arise from multiple nature-society interactions occurring over long time periods. Traditional methods of quantitative analysis do not represent long-term changes in the networks of system components, including institutions and knowledge that affect system behavior. Here, we develop an approach to study system structure and evolution by combining a qualitative framework that represents sustainability-relevant human, technological, and environmental components, and their interactions, mediated by knowledge and institutions, with network modeling that enables quantitative metrics. We use this approach to examine the water and food system in the Punjab province of the Indus River Basin in Pakistan, exploring how food production has been sustained, despite high population growth, periodic floods, and frequent political and economic disruptions. Using network models of five periods spanning 75 y (1947 to 2022), we examine how quantitative metrics of network structure relate to observed sustainability-relevant outcomes and how potential interventions in the system affect these quantitative metrics. We find that the persistent centrality of some and evolving centrality of other key nodes, coupled with the increasing number and length of pathways connecting them, are associated with sustaining food production in the system over time. Our assessment of potential interventions shows that regulating groundwater pumping and phasing out fossil fuels alters network pathways, and helps identify potential vulnerabilities for future food production.


Assuntos
Abastecimento de Alimentos , Paquistão , Humanos , Rios , Agricultura , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais
14.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(5): e2215685121, 2024 Jan 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38227646

RESUMO

Future climate change can cause more days with poor air quality. This could trigger more alerts telling people to stay inside to protect themselves, with potential consequences for health and health equity. Here, we study the change in US air quality alerts over this century due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), who they may affect, and how they may respond. We find air quality alerts increase by over 1 mo per year in the eastern United States by 2100 and quadruple on average. They predominantly affect areas with high Black populations and leakier homes, exacerbating existing inequalities and impacting those less able to adapt. Reducing emissions can offer significant annual health benefits ($5,400 per person) by mitigating the effect of climate change on air pollution and its associated risks of early death. Relying on people to adapt, instead, would require them to stay inside, with doors and windows closed, for an extra 142 d per year, at an average cost of $11,000 per person. It appears likelier, however, that people will achieve minimal protection without policy to increase adaptation rates. Boosting adaptation can offer net benefits, even alongside deep emission cuts. New adaptation policies could, for example: reduce adaptation costs; reduce infiltration and improve indoor air quality; increase awareness of alerts and adaptation; and provide measures for those working or living outdoors. Reducing emissions, conversely, lowers everyone's need to adapt, and protects those who cannot adapt. Equitably protecting human health from air pollution under climate change requires both mitigation and adaptation.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar em Ambientes Fechados , Poluição do Ar , Humanos , Estados Unidos , Modelos Teóricos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Material Particulado/análise , Mudança Climática , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise
15.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(20): e2215679121, 2024 May 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38709924

RESUMO

Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.

16.
Bioessays ; 46(7): e2400017, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38713171

RESUMO

This article reflects on sustainability in the context of scientific conferences with emphasis on environmental, diversity, inclusivity, and intellectual aspects. We argue that it is imperative to embrace sustainability as a broad concept during conference organization. In-person conferences have an obvious environmental impact but mitigating strategies can be implemented, such as incentivizing low-emission travel, offering fellowships to support sustainable traveling, and promoting use of public transport or car-pooling. Utilizing eco-conscious venues, catering, and accommodations, along with minimizing resource wastage, further reduces environmental impact. Additional considerations include facilitating hybrid format conferences that allow both in-person and online attendance. Hybrid conferences enhance global participation whilst reducing resource consumption and environmental impact. Often-overlooked benefits can arise from the simple recording of talks to enable asynchronous viewing for people unable to attend in person, in addition to providing a legacy of knowledge that, for example, could support the training of early career researchers (ECRs) or newcomers in the field. The longevity of a research field, intellectual sustainability, requires an inclusive conference atmosphere, offering optimal opportunities for ECRs, minority groups, and researchers from emerging countries. Diversity and inclusivity not only enrich conference experiences but also enhances creativity and innovation.


Assuntos
Congressos como Assunto , Humanos , Pesquisadores
17.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(47): e2206197120, 2023 Nov 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37956273

RESUMO

The current mobility system relies heavily on privately owned cars, which results in high levels of emissions, material use, and use of scarce public space. Carsharing is a mobility innovation offering consumers on-demand, short-term access to cars. By changing consumption patterns and reducing car ownership, carsharing has great potential to contribute to a sustainability transition of the mobility system. Even so, carsharing only satisfies a small portion of today's mobility needs and has difficulties becoming mainstream. This study investigates the upscaling trajectory of carsharing in the Netherlands. We structure the analysis along the lines of the multilevel perspective and include economic, technological, sociocultural, and policy factors that shape carsharing growth. The results demonstrate how car ownership is entrenched in the social and economic fabric, and the specific barriers this poses to carsharing. Moreover, we find some forms of carsharing risk extending private car ownership rather than challenging it. The environmental outcomes of carsharing are not predetermined but depend on the trajectories key actors take during upscaling. Our analysis highlights the importance of studying innovations in the context of the consumption-production systems in which they emerge.

18.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(47): e2207825120, 2023 Nov 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37956288

RESUMO

Electricity system decarbonization is key for environmental sustainability. From a consumption-production perspective, much attention has been paid to changes in how electricity is generated and used, but electricity systems also rely on a grid infrastructure that connects and integrates production and consumption, and which will also need to transform. At the same time, new technologies in the electricity system, including the grid, offer the potential for more socially sustainable ways of producing and consuming energy. However, in practice, change has been slow, uneven, and often dysfunctional. A socio-technical transitions approach offers insights into why this is so, seeing electricity system change not simply in technical and economic terms, but also as the outcomes of interactions between technology and social and political processes. The approach draws attention to the particular challenges of achieving rapid transitions in complex critical infrastructures like electricity with strong institutional logics of security. This article applies this approach to the case of Great Britain, where despite strong commitments to sustainability in the form of high-level climate policy, the electricity grid has often been a constraint on the pace of change. The nature of the British transition is explained partly by weak links between these high-level goals on the one hand and the detailed rules and practices in the electricity system on the other. It is also explained by patterns of ownership and grid regulation in the British case that protect incumbents and make it difficult for new actors to develop the system in more socially sustainable directions.

19.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(43): e2221345120, 2023 Oct 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37844231

RESUMO

Growth models with resources and environmental externalities typically assume that planet Earth is a closed economy. However, private firms like Blue Origin and SpaceX have reduced the cost of rocket launches by a factor of 20 over the last decade. What if these costs continue to decline, making mining from asteroids or the moon feasible? What would be the implications for economic growth and the environment? This paper provides stylized facts about cost trends, geology, and the environmental impact of mining on Earth and potentially in Space. We extend a neoclassical growth model to investigate the transition from mining on Earth to Space. We find that such a transition could potentially allow for continued growth of metal use, while limiting environmental and social costs on Earth. Acknowledging the high uncertainty around the topic, our paper provides a starting point for research on how Space mining could contribute to sustainable growth on Earth.

20.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(9): e2214254120, 2023 Feb 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36821581

RESUMO

A large proportion of Africa's infrastructure is yet to be built. Where and how these new buildings are constructed matters since today's decisions will last for decades. The resulting morphology of cities has lasting implications for a city's energy needs. Estimating and projecting these needs has always been challenging in Africa due to the lack of data. Yet, given the sweeping urbanization expected in Africa over the next three decades, this obstacle must be overcome to guide cities toward a trajectory of sustainability and resilience. Based on the location and surface of nearly 200 million buildings on the continent, we estimate the interbuilding distance of almost six thousand cities. Buildings' footprint data enable the construction of urban form indicators to compare African cities' elongation, sprawl, and emptiness. We establish the BASE model, where the mean distance between buildings is a functional relation to the number of Buildings and their average Area, as well as the Sprawl and the Elongation of its spatial arrangement. The mean distance between structures in cities-our proxy for its energy demands related to mobility-grows faster than the square root of its population, resulting from the combined impact of a sublinear growth in the number of buildings and a sublinear increase in building size and sprawl. We estimate that when a city doubles its population, it triples its energy demand from transport.

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