Predicting anoxia in low-nutrient temperate lakes.

Absence of dissolved oxygen (anoxia) in the hypolimnion of lakes can eliminate habitat for sensitive species and may induce the release of sediment-bound phosphorus. Lake anoxia generally results from decomposition of organic matter, which is exacerbated by high nutrient loads. Total phosphorus (TP) in lakes is regulated by static aspects of the lake's watershed, but lake TP can be readily increased by human activities. In some low-nutrient lakes, basin morphometry may induce naturally occurring anoxia. The occurrence of natural anoxia is especially important to consider in lake water quality assessments that compare observed conditions to expected reference conditions. To investigate the occurrence of natural vs. anthropogenically influenced anoxia, we constructed a logistic regression model to calculate the probability of low-nutrient lakes (TP < 15 µg/L) developing aerial anoxic extent ≥10% by testing the predictive potential of variables related to basin morphometry, depths of lake thermal strata, epilimnetic TP, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Maximum lake depth and the proportion of lake area under the top of the metalimnion were the most important variables to predict the likelihood of hypolimnetic anoxia, which correctly predicted anoxic condition in 84% of lakes (Model 1). Adding TP as a third variable to Model 1 produced a significantly improved model (Model 2) but the prediction success rate was comparable (86%). We also present a model for lakes with limited bathymetric data, which predicts anoxia with 81% accuracy based on maximum lake depth and mean thermocline depth at peak stratification. DOC was relatively low (4.3 ± 1.5 mg/L [mean ± SD]) in the study lakes and its inclusion did not improve model performance. In Model 1, lakes with an anoxic extent ≥10% of lake area had significantly higher epilimnetic TP than lakes with oxic hypolimnia, regardless of prediction category or success. Our results indicate that including TP as a variable helps refine models based on morphometry alone, but lake morphometry and stratification dynamics are the most important factors in the development of anoxic extent in low-nutrient temperate lakes. Our approach informs studies concerned with identifying key factors that influence regime shifts in a variety of ecosystems.

Taxonomical Resolution and Distribution of Bacterioplankton Along the Vertical Gradient Reveals Pronounced Spatiotemporal Patterns in Contrasted Temperate Freshwater Lakes.

We examined the relationship between viruses and co-occurring bacterial communities across spatiotemporal scale in two contrasting freshwater lakes, namely meromictic Lake Pavin and dimictic Lake Aydat (Central France). Next-generation sequencing of 16S rRNA genes suggested distinct patterns in bacterioplankton community composition (BCC) between the lakes over depths and seasons. BCC were generally dominated by members of Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, and Bacteroidetes covering about 95% of all sequences. Oxygen depletion at the bottom waters in Aydat and existence of permanent anoxia in the monimolimnion of Pavin resulted in the occurrence and dominance of lesser known members of lake communities such as Methylotenera, Methylobacter, Gallionella, Sulfurimonas, and Syntrophus in Pavin and Methylotenera and Sulfuritalea in Aydat. Differences in BCC appeared strongly related to dissolved oxygen concentration, temperature, viral infection, and virus-to-bacteria ratio. UniFrac analysis indicated a clear distinction in BCC when the percentage of viral infected bacterial cells and virus-to-bacteria ratio exceeded a threshold level of 10% and 5, respectively, suggesting a link between viruses and their potential bacterial host communities. Our study revealed that in both the lakes, the prevailing environmental factors across time and space structured and influenced the adaptation of bacterial communities to specific ecological niches.

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change.

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33-75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27-60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.

Experimental whole-lake increase of dissolved organic carbon concentration produces unexpected increase in crustacean zooplankton density.

The observed pattern of lake browning, or increased terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, across the northern hemisphere has amplified the importance of understanding how consumer productivity varies with DOC concentration. Results from comparative studies suggest these increased DOC concentrations may reduce crustacean zooplankton productivity due to reductions in resource quality and volume of suitable habitat. Although these spatial comparisons provide an expectation for the response of zooplankton productivity as DOC concentration increases, we still have an incomplete understanding of how zooplankton respond to temporal increases in DOC concentration within a single system. As such, we used a whole-lake manipulation, in which DOC concentration was increased from 8 to 11 mg L(-1) in one basin of a manipulated lake, to test the hypothesis that crustacean zooplankton production should subsequently decrease. In contrast to the spatially derived expectation of sharp DOC-mediated decline, we observed a small increase in zooplankton densities in response to our experimental increase in DOC concentration of the treatment basin. This was due to significant increases in gross primary production and resource quality (lower seston carbon-to-phosphorus ratio; C:P). These results demonstrate that temporal changes in lake characteristics due to increased DOC may impact zooplankton in ways that differ from those observed in spatial surveys. We also identified significant interannual variability across our study region, which highlights potential difficulty in detecting temporal responses of organism abundances to gradual environmental change (e.g., browning).

Is Toxin-Producing Planktothrix sp. an Emerging Species in Lake Constance?

Recurring blooms of filamentous, red-pigmented and toxin-producing cyanobacteria Planktothrix rubescens have been reported in numerous deep and stratified prealpine lakes, with the exception of Lake Constance. In a 2019 and 2020 Lake Constance field campaign, we collected samples from a distinct red-pigmented biomass maximum below the chlorophyll-a maximum, which was determined using fluorescence probe measurements at depths between 18 and 20 m. Here, we report the characterization of these deep water red pigment maxima (DRM) as cyanobacterial blooms. Using 16S rRNA gene-amplicon sequencing, we found evidence that the blooms were, indeed, contributed by Planktothrix spp., although phycoerythrin-rich Synechococcus taxa constituted most of the biomass (>96% relative read abundance) of the cyanobacterial DRM community. Through UPLC-MS/MS, we also detected toxic microcystins (MCs) in the DRM in the individual sampling days at concentrations of ≤1.5 ng/L. Subsequently, we reevaluated the fluorescence probe measurements collected over the past decade and found that, in the summer, DRM have been present in Lake Constance, at least since 2009. Our study highlights the need for a continuous monitoring program also targeting the cyanobacterial DRM in Lake Constance, and for future studies on the competition of the different cyanobacterial taxa. Future studies will address the potential community composition changes in response to the climate change driven physiochemical and biological parameters of the lake.

Coupling of stable carbon isotopic signature of methane and ebullitive fluxes in northern temperate lakes.

Stable isotopic analysis is a popular method to understand the mechanisms sustaining methane (CH4) emissions in various aquatic environments. Yet, the general lack of concurrent measurements of isotopes and fluxes impedes our ability to establish a connection between the variation in the rates of CH4 emission and isotopic signature. Here, we examine the magnitude of CH4 ebullition (bubbling) and stable carbon isotopic signature (δ13C-CH4) of bubble CH4 in four northern temperate lakes and evaluate the in-lake processes shaping their variability. The ebullitive CH4 flux and bubble δ13C-CH4 varied from 0.01 to 37.0 mmol m-2 d-1 and between -71.0‰ and -50.9‰, respectively. The high emission lakes in general and high fluxing shallow zones within each lake consistently showed enriched δ13C-CH4 signature. Subsequently, in addition to the temperature dependence (1.4 ± 0.1 eV), the rates of ebullition strongly correlated with the variability of δ13C-CH4 across our study lakes. Our results suggest that higher ebullitive emissions are sustained by acetoclastic methanogenesis, likely fueled by fresh organic matter inputs. Further, the annual whole-lake estimate of bubble isotopic flux alone showed depleted δ13C-CH4 values (-64.6 ± 0.6‰ to -60.1 ± 3.2‰), yet the signature of the total CH4 emission (ebullition + diffusion) was relatively enriched (-60.7‰ to -52.6‰) due to high methanotrophic activity in the water column. We show that δ13C-CH4 signature of bubbles can be linked to the magnitude of ebullition itself, yet we suggest there is a need to account for different emission pathways and their isotopic signature to allocate CH4 source signature to northern lakes.

Influence of hydro-morphologic variables of forested catchments on the increase in DOC concentration in 36 temperate lakes of eastern Canada.

In the last decades, a worldwide increase in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations has been observed in temperate and boreal lakes. This phenomenon has several detrimental effects on the aquatic life and affect local C geochemical cycles. In this study, we measured DOC concentration in the water column of 36 lakes located in eastern Canada over a period of 35 years (1983-2017) and assessed the influence of climatic, hydrologic and morphometric variables on both DOC concentrations and on the rate of DOC changes (∆DOC). Our data show that morphometric and hydrologic variables have a stronger direct influence on lake water DOC concentrations than vegetation and climatic variables. DOC concentration strongly increased with the drainage ratio and the surface covered by organic deposits, which together explained 59% of the variance. As expected, we observed a significant increase in lake water DOC concentration in 72% of the surveyed lakes, which averaged 20% over the study period. Meanwhile, lake water SO42- concentration decreased by 60%. ∆DOC was poorly influenced by the rate of changes in lake water SO42- as well as by the rate of changes in mean annual air temperature and precipitation. ∆DOC was more related to the vegetation type and the morphometry of the catchment: a model including the percentage of conifers, terrestrial catchment area and ∆Cl yielded a variance explanation of 39%. This shows that the rate of increase was primarily driven by morphometric variables which did not change over the study period.

Habitat explains patterns of population decline for an invasive crayfish.

Invasive nonindigenous species are defined by their impacts: they substantially change native communities or ecosystems. Accordingly, invasive species might transform their habitats in ways that eventually become unfavorable to them, causing population declines or even extirpations. Here we use over 40 yr of systematically collected data on the abundance of the invasive rusty crayfish Faxonius rusticus from 17 lakes in northern Wisconsin, USA to explore whether population declines of this invader are related to the prevalence of rocky habitat, which shelters crayfish from predators and is unchanged by crayfish. We predicted that lakes with rock-dominated substrates would be resistant to F. rusticus population declines, whereas lakes lacking rock-dominated substrates would experience F. rusticus declines due to crayfish destruction of shelter-providing macrophytes. We found that in nearly one-half (47%) of the study lakes, F. rusticus experienced population declines over the study time period, and these lakes had significantly lower proportions of rock substrate than lakes that did not experience population declines. We recommend that more studies should investigate the potential for invasive species-mediated community or ecosystem feedbacks to eventually contribute to their own population declines.

Linking landscape heterogeneity with lake dissolved organic matter properties assessed through absorbance and fluorescence spectroscopy: Spatial and seasonal patterns in temperate lakes of Southern Andes (Patagonia, Argentina).

Hydrological connectivity between terrestrial and aquatic systems is influenced by landscape features. Topography, vegetation cover and type, lake morphometry and climate (seasonality, precipitation) drive the timing, concentration and quality of allochthonous dissolved organic matter (DOM) inputs to lakes, influencing lake metabolism. The impact of climate changes on terrestrial-aquatic linkages depends on regional trends and ecosystems properties. We examined how landscape heterogeneity affects lake DOM in pristine temperate headwater lakes located in sharp bioclimatic gradients at the leeward side of the southern Andes (Patagonia, Argentina), and predicted their potential responses to forecasted changes in regional climate. We assessed DOM properties of deep and shallow lakes spotted along precipitation and altitudinal gradients which reflect on vegetation heterogeneity. Lake DOM (concentration, and chromophoric and fluorescent properties) was related to terrestrial bioclimatic conditions, addressing also DOM bio- and photodegradation processes. Co-effects of climate and vegetation determined the quantity and quality of allochthonous DOM inputs. Higher terrestrial signs showed up at the wettest extreme of the gradient and during the rainy season, being attributable to higher hydrological land-water connectivity, and dense vegetation cover. Under drier conditions, DOM displayed higher photobleaching signs at spatial and temporal scales. The ratio between non-humic and terrestrial humic substances indicated that DOM biodegradation dominates in shallow forested lakes and photodegradation prevails in deep ones, whereas coupled photo- and biological processing shaped the DOM pool of high altitude lakes. Overall, DOM optical metrics captured landscape heterogeneity. Under the forecasted climate changes for Patagonia (decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature), piedmont lakes may experience lower hydrological connectivity, lower terrestrial inputs and, enhanced photobleaching usually associated with longer water residence time. In high altitude lakes, terrestrial DOM inputs are expected to increase due to the upward expansion of native deciduous forests, thus becoming more similar to lakes located lower in the landscape.

Evaluating the portability of satellite derived chlorophyll-a algorithms for temperate inland lakes using airborne hyperspectral imagery and dense surface observations.

This study evaluated the performances of twenty-nine algorithms that use satellite-based spectral imager data to derive estimates of chlorophyll-a concentrations that, in turn, can be used as an indicator of the general status of algal cell densities and the potential for a harmful algal bloom (HAB). The performance assessment was based on making relative comparisons between two temperate inland lakes: Harsha Lake (7.99 km2) in Southwest Ohio and Taylorsville Lake (11.88 km2) in central Kentucky. Of interest was identifying algorithm-imager combinations that had high correlation with coincident chlorophyll-a surface observations for both lakes, as this suggests portability for regional HAB monitoring. The spectral data utilized to estimate surface water chlorophyll-a concentrations were derived from the airborne Compact Airborne Spectral Imager (CASI) 1500 hyperspectral imager, that was then used to derive synthetic versions of currently operational satellite-based imagers using spatial resampling and spectral binning. The synthetic data mimics the configurations of spectral imagers on current satellites in earth's orbit including, WorldView-2/3, Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS). High correlations were found between the direct measurement and the imagery-estimated chlorophyll-a concentrations at both lakes. The results determined that eleven out of the twenty-nine algorithms were considered portable, with r2 values greater than 0.5 for both lakes. Even though the two lakes are different in terms of background water quality, size and shape, with Taylorsville being generally less impaired, larger, but much narrower throughout, the results support the portability of utilizing a suite of certain algorithms across multiple sensors to detect potential algal blooms through the use of chlorophyll-a as a proxy. Furthermore, the strong performance of the Sentinel-2 algorithms is exceptionally promising, due to the recent launch of the second satellite in the constellation, which will provide higher temporal resolution for temperate inland water bodies. Additionally, scripts were written for the open-source statistical software R that automate much of the spectral data processing steps. This allows for the simultaneous consideration of numerous algorithms across multiple imagers over an expedited time frame for the near real-time monitoring required for detecting algal blooms and mitigating their adverse impacts.