Investigating the effects of spatial scales on social vulnerability index: A hybrid uncertainty and sensitivity analysis approach combined with remote sensing land cover data.

Investigating the effects of spatial scales on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the social vulnerability index (SoVI) model output is critical, especially for spatial scales finer than the census block group or census block. This study applied the intelligent dasymetric mapping approach to spatially disaggregate the census tract scale SoVI model into a 300-m grids resolution SoVI map in Davidson County, Nashville. Then, uncertainty analysis and variance-based global sensitivity analysis were conducted on two scales of SoVI models: (a) census tract scale; (b) 300-m grids scale. Uncertainty analysis results indicate that the SoVI model has better confidence in identifying places with a higher socially vulnerable status, no matter the spatial scales in which the SoVI is constructed. However, the spatial scale of SoVI does affect the sensitivity analysis results. The sensitivity analysis suggests that for census tract scale SoVI, the indicator transformation and weighting scheme are the two major uncertainty contributors in the SoVI index modeling stages. While for finer spatial scales like the 300-m grid's resolution, the weighting scheme becomes the uttermost dominant uncertainty contributor, absorbing uncertainty contributions from indicator transformation.

A Unified Spatio-Temporal Inference Network for Car-Sharing Serial Prediction.

Car-sharing systems require accurate demand prediction to ensure efficient resource allocation and scheduling decisions. However, developing precise predictive models for vehicle demand remains a challenging problem due to the complex spatio-temporal relationships. This paper introduces USTIN, the Unified Spatio-Temporal Inference Prediction Network, a novel neural network architecture for demand prediction. The model consists of three key components: a temporal feature unit, a spatial feature unit, and a spatio-temporal feature unit. The temporal unit utilizes historical demand data and comprises four layers, each corresponding to a different time scale (hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly). Meanwhile, the spatial unit incorporates contextual points of interest data to capture geographic demand factors around parking stations. Additionally, the spatio-temporal unit incorporates weather data to model the meteorological impacts across locations and time. We conducted extensive experiments on real-world car-sharing data. The proposed USTIN model demonstrated its ability to effectively learn intricate temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal relationships, and outperformed existing state-of-the-art approaches. Moreover, we employed negative binomial regression with uncertainty to identify the most influential factors affecting car usage.

Probabilistic Analysis of Critical Speed Values of a Rotating Machine as a Function of the Change of Dynamic Parameters.

Real-world rotordynamic systems exhibit inherent uncertainties in manufacturing tolerances, material properties, and operating conditions. This study presents a Monte Carlo simulation approach using MSC Adams View and Adams Insight to investigate the impact of these uncertainties on the performance of a Laval/Jeffcott rotor model. Key uncertainties in bearing damping, bearing clearance, and mass imbalance were modeled with probabilistic distributions. The Monte Carlo analysis revealed the probabilistic nature of critical speeds, vibration amplitudes, and overall system stability. The findings highlight the importance of probabilistic methods in robust rotordynamic design and provide insights for establishing manufacturing tolerances and operational limits.

A comparative study on urban waterlogging susceptibility assessment based on multiple data-driven models.

Accurate identification of urban waterlogging areas and assessing waterlogging susceptibility are crucial for preventing and controlling hazards. Data-driven models are utilized to forecast waterlogging areas by establishing intricate relationships between explanatory variables and waterlogging states. This approach tackles the constraints of mechanistic models, which are frequently complex and unable to incorporate socio-economic factors. Previous research predominantly employed single-type data-driven models to predict waterlogging locations and evaluation of their effectiveness. There is a scarcity of comprehensive performance comparisons and uncertainty analyses of different types of models, as well as a lack of interpretability analysis. The chosen study area was the central area of Beijing, which is prone to waterlogging. Given the high manpower, time, and economic costs associated with collecting waterlogging information, the waterlogging point distribution map released by the Beijing Water Affairs Bureau was selected as labeled samples. Twelve factors affecting waterlogging susceptibility were chosen as explanatory variables to construct Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine with Radial Basis Function (SVM-RBF), Particle Swarm Optimization-Weakly Labeled Support Vector Machine (PSO-WELLSVM), and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The utilization of diverse single evaluation indicators (such as F-score, Kappa, AUC, etc.) to assess the model performance may yield conflicting results. The Distance between Indices of Simulation and Observation (DISO) was chosen as a comprehensive measure to assess the model's performance in predicting waterlogging points. PSO-WELLSVM exhibited the highest performance with a DISOtest value of 0.63, outperforming MaxEnt (0.78), which excelled in identifying areas highly susceptible to waterlogging, including extremely high susceptibility zones. The SVM-RBF and RF models demonstrated suboptimal performance and exhibited overfitting. The examination of waterlogging susceptibility distribution maps predicted by the four models revealed significant spatial differences due to variations in computational principles and input parameter complexities. The integration of four WSAMs based on logistic regression has been shown to significantly decrease the uncertainty of a single data-driven model and identify the most flood-prone areas. To improve the interpretability of the data model, a geographical detector was incorporated to demonstrate the explanatory capacity of 12 variables and the process of waterlogging. Building Density (BD) exhibits the highest explanatory power in relation to explain waterlogging susceptibility (Q value = 0.202), followed by Distance to Road, Frequency of Heavy Rainstorms (FHR), DEM, etc. The interaction between BD and FHR results in a nonlinear increase in the explanatory power of waterlogging susceptibility. The presence of waterlogging susceptibility risk in the research area can be attributed to the interactions of multiple factors.

Uncertainty analysis and economic value prediction of water environmental capacity based on Copula and Bayesian model: A case study of Yitong River, China.

Water environmental capacity (WEC) is an indicator of environment management. The uncertainty analysis of WEC is more closely aligned with the actual conditions of the water body. It is crucial for accurately formulating pollution total emissions control schemes. However, the current WEC uncertainty analysis method ignored the connection between water quality and discharge, and required a large amount of monitoring data. This study analyzed the uncertainty of the WEC and predicted its economic value based on Copula and Bayesian model for the Yitong River in China. The Copula model was employed to calculate joint probabilities of water quality and discharge. And the posterior distribution of WEC with limited data was obtained by the Bayesian formula. The results showed that the WEC-COD in the Yitong River was 9009.67 t/a, while NH3-N had no residual WEC. Wanjinta Highway Bridge-Kaoshan Town reach had the most serious pollution. In order to make it have WEC, the reduction of COD and NH3-N was 5330.47 t and 3017.87 t. The economic value of WEC-COD was 5.97 × 107 CNY, and the treatment cost was 2.04 × 108 CNY to make NH3-N have residual WEC. The economic value distribution of WEC was extremely uneven, which could be utilized by adjusting the sewage outlet. In addition, since the treated water was discharged into the Sihua Bridge-Wanjinta Highway Bridge reach, the WEC-COD and the economic value were 19,488.51 t/a and 8.24 × 107 CNY. Increasing the flow of rivers could effectively improve WEC and economic value. This study provided an evaluation tool for guiding river water environment management.

An integrated simulation-optimization approach for combined allocation of water quantity and quality under multiple uncertainties.

Multiple uncertainties such as water quality processes, streamflow randomness affected by climate change, indicators' interrelation, and socio-economic development have brought significant risks in managing water quantity and quality (WQQ) for river basins. This research developed an integrated simulation-optimization modeling approach (ISMA) to tackle multiple uncertainties simultaneously. This approach combined water quality analysis simulation programming, Markov-Chain, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, and interval two-stage left-hand-side chance-constrained joint-probabilistic programming into an integration nonlinear modeling framework. A case study of multiple water intake projects in the Downstream and Delta of Dongjiang River Basin was used to demonstrate the proposed model. Results reveal that ISMA helps predict the trend of water quality changes and quantitatively analyze the interaction between WQQ. As the joint probability level increases, under strict water quality scenario system benefits would increase [3.23, 5.90] × 109 Yuan, comprehensive water scarcity based on quantity and quality would decrease [782.24, 945.82] × 106 m3, with an increase in water allocation and a decrease in pollutant generation. Compared to the deterministic and water quantity model, it allocates water efficiently and quantifies more economic losses and water scarcity. Therefore, this research has significant implications for improving water quality in basins, balancing the benefits and risks of water quality violations, and stabilizing socio-economic development.

Advances in Adjoint Functions of Connection Number in Water Resources Complex Systems: A Systematic Review.

The adjoint function of connection number has unique advantages in solving uncertainty problems of water resource complex systems, and has become an important frontier and research hotspot in the uncertainty research of water resource complex problems. However, in the rapid evolution of the adjoint function, some problems greatly limit the application of the adjoint function in the research of water resources. Therefore, based on bibliometric analysis, development, practical application issues, and prospects of the hot directions are analyzed. It is found that the development of the connection number of water resource set pair analysis can be divided into three stages: (1) relatively sluggish development before 2005, (2) a period of rapid advancement in adjoint function research spanning from 2005 to 2017, and (3) a subsequent surge post-2018. The introduction of the adjoint function of connection number promotes the continuous development of set pair analysis of water resources. Set pair potential and partial connection number are the crucial research directions of the adjoint function. Subtractive set pair potential has rapidly developed into a relatively independent and important trajectory. The research on connection entropy is comparatively less, which needs to be further strengthened, while that on adjacent connection number is even less. The adjoint function of set pair potential can be divided into three major categories: division set pair potential, exponential set pair potential, and subtraction set pair potential. The subtraction set pair potential, which retains the original dimension and quantity variation range of the connection number, is widely used in water resources and other fields. Coupled with the partial connection number, a series of new connection number adjoint functions have been developed. The partial connection number can be mainly divided into two categories: total partial connection number, and semi-partial connection number. Among these, the calculation expression and connotation of total partial connection numbers have not yet reached a consensus, accompanied by the slow development of high-order partial connection numbers. Semi-partial connection number can describe the mutual migration movement between different components of the connection number, which develops rapidly. With the limitations and current situation described above, promoting the exploration and application of the adjoint function of connection number in the field of water resources and other fields of complex systems has become the focus of future research.

Analysis of Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Tailings Dam Breach-Runout Numerical Modelling.

Tailings dam breaches (TDBs) and subsequent flows can pose significant risk to public safety, the environment, and the economy. Numerical runout models are used to simulate potential tailings flows and understand their downstream impacts. Due to the complex nature of the breach-runout processes, the mobility and downstream impacts of these types of failures are highly uncertain. We applied the first-order second-moment (FOSM) methodology to a database of 11 back-analyzed historical tailings flows to evaluate uncertainties in TDB runout modelling and conducted a sensitivity analysis to identify key factors contributing to the variability of the HEC-RAS model output, including at different locations along the runout path. The results indicate that prioritizing resources toward advancements in estimating the values of primary contributors to the sensitivity of the selected model outputs is necessary for more reliable model results. We found that the total released volume is among the top contributors to the sensitivity of modelled inundation area and maximum flow depth, while surface roughness is among the top contributors to the sensitivity of modelled maximum flow velocity and flow front arrival time. However, the primary contributors to the sensitivity of the model outputs varied depending on the case study; therefore, the selection of appropriate rheological models and consideration of site-specific conditions are crucial for accurate predictions. The study proposes and demonstrates the FOSM methodology as an approximate probabilistic approach to model-based tailings flow runout prediction, which can help improve the accuracy of risk assessments and emergency response plans. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10230-024-00970-w.

Las roturas de presas de relaves (TDBs) y los flujos subsiguientes pueden suponer un riesgo significativo para la seguridad pública, el medio ambiente y la economía. Los modelos numéricos de desbordamiento se utilizan para simular posibles flujos de relaves y comprender su impacto aguas abajo. Debido a la naturaleza compleja de los procesos de rotura-desbordamiento, la movilidad y los impactos aguas abajo de este tipo de fallos tienen mucha incertidumbre. Se aplicó la metodología del segundo-momento de primer-orden (FOSM) a una base de datos de 11 flujos históricos de relaves analizados retrospectivamente para evaluar las incertidumbres en la modelización del desbordamiento de TDB y se realizó un análisis de sensibilidad para identificar los factores clave que contribuyen a la variabilidad de los resultados del modelo HEC-RAS, incluso en diferentes ubicaciones a lo largo de la trayectoria de fuga. Los resultados indican que es necesario priorizar los recursos hacia avances en la estimación de los valores de los principales contribuyentes a la sensibilidad de los resultados del modelo seleccionado para obtener resultados más fiables del modelo. El volumen total liberado se encuentra entre los principales contribuyentes a la sensibilidad del área de inundación modelizada y la profundidad máxima del flujo, mientras que la rugosidad de la superficie se encuentra entre los principales contribuyentes a la sensibilidad de la velocidad máxima del flujo modelizado y el tiempo de llegada del frente de flujo. Sin embargo, los principales factores que contribuyen a la sensibilidad de los resultados del modelo varían dependiendo del caso de estudio; por lo tanto, la selección de modelos reológicos apropiados y la consideración de las condiciones específicas del emplazamiento son cruciales para obtener predicciones precisas. El estudio propone y muestra la metodología FOSM como un enfoque probabilístico aproximado para la predicción de la extensión de flujos de relaves basada en modelos, que puede ayudar a mejorar la precisión de las evaluaciones de riesgos y los planes de respuesta a emergencias.

Reflecting Parameter Uncertainty in Addition to Variability in Constrained Healthcare Resource Discrete Event Simulations: Worth Going the Extra Mile or a Road to Nowhere?

OBJECTIVES: Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) has been shown to reduce bias in outcomes of health economic models. However, only 1 existing study has been identified that incorporates PSA within a resource-constrained discrete event simulation (DES) model. This article aims to assess whether it is feasible and appropriate to use PSA to characterize parameter uncertainty in DES models that are primarily constructed to explore the impact of constrained resources. METHODS: PSA is incorporated into a new case study of an Emergency Department DES. Structured expert elicitation is used to derive the variability and uncertainty input distributions associated with length of time taken to complete key activities within the Emergency Department. Potential challenges of implementation and analysis are explored. RESULTS: The results of a trial of the model, which used the best estimates of the elicited means and variability around the time taken to complete activities, provided a reasonable fit to the data for length of time within the Emergency Department. However, there was substantial and skewed uncertainty around the activity times estimated from the elicitation exercise. This led to patients taking almost 3 weeks to leave the Emergency Department in some PSA runs, which would not occur in practice. CONCLUSIONS: Structured expert elicitation can be used to derive plausible estimates of activity times and their variability, but experts' uncertainty can be substantial. For parameters that have an impact on interactions within a resource-constrained simulation model, PSA can lead to implausible model outputs; hence, other methods may be needed.

A comparative environmental analysis of conventional and organic rice farming in Thailand in a life cycle perspective using a stochastic modeling approach.

System stochasticity is an inherent characteristic of agricultural systems. Many studies have been conducted in Thailand to analyze the rice production systems. However, most of the prior work just focused on deterministic approach to investigate the rice production systems while disregarding the system variability. In this study, the conventional and organic rice farming systems in Thailand were compared considering the uncertainties associated with parameters. The system variability was taken into account by employing a stochastic modeling approach. The considered impact categories include global warming, ozone formation (human health), freshwater ecotoxicity, terrestrial acidification, fine particulate matter formation, freshwater eutrophication, and fossil resource scarcity. The results showed that yield had considerable influence on the environmental profiles of the two systems; organic and conventional farming showed similar results in terms of global warming on a per hectare basis, but the considerable difference was observed on a per tonne basis. The field emissions due to farm inputs were the most significant contributor to most of the impact categories. The fuel used for irrigation, land preparation, and harvesting also contributed significantly to several impact categories. On the other hand, the impacts of inputs production and material transportation were modest. Uncertainty analysis outcomes indicated that there was a noticeable deviation from the deterministic results in terms of global warming and freshwater ecotoxicity. However, when considering the associated uncertainties, no significant difference was observed between the environmental profiles of the two systems.

An operational approach for large-scale mapping of water clarity levels in inland lakes using landsat images based on optical classification.

Water clarity is a critical parameter of water, it is typically measured using the setter disc depth (SDD). The accurate estimation of SDD for optically varying waters using remote sensing remains challenging. In this study, a water classification algorithm based on the Landsat 5 TM/Landsat 8 OLI satellite was used to distinguish different water types, in which the waters were divided into two types by using the ad(443)/ap(443) ratio. Water type 1 refers to waters dominated by phytoplankton, while water type 2 refers to waters dominated by non-algal particles. For the different water types, a specific algorithm was developed based on 994 in situ water samples collected from Chinese inland lakes during 42 cruises. First, the Rrs(443)/Rrs(655) ratio was used for water type 1 SDD estimation, and the band combination of (Rrs(443)/Rrs(655) - Rrs(443)/Rrs(560)) was proposed for water type 2. The accuracy assessment based on an independent validation dataset proved that the proposed algorithm performed well, with an R2 of 0.85, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 25.98%, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.23 m. To demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm, it was extensively evaluated using data collected from Lake Erie and Lake Huron, and the estimation accuracy remained satisfactory (R2 = 0.87, MAPE = 28.04%, RMSE = 0.76 m). Furthermore, compared with existing empirical and semi-analytical SDD estimation algorithms, the algorithm proposed in this paper showed the best performance, and could be applied to other satellite sensors with similar band settings. Finally, this algorithm was successfully applied to map SDD levels of 107 lakes and reservoirs located in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain (MLYP) from 1984 to 2020 at a 30 m spatial resolution, and it was found that 53.27% of the lakes and reservoirs in the MLYP generally show an upward trend in SDD. This research provides a new technological approach for water environment monitoring in regional and even global lakes, and offers a scientific reference for water environment management of lakes in the MLYP.

Modeling Opioid Abuse: A Case Study of the Opioid Crisis in New England.

For the past two decades, the USA has been embroiled in a growing prescription drug epidemic. The ripples of this epidemic have been especially apparent in the state of Maine, which has fought hard to mitigate the damage caused by addiction to pharmaceutical and illicit opioids. In this study, we construct a mathematical model of the opioid epidemic incorporating novel features important to better understanding opioid abuse dynamics. These features include demographic differences in population susceptibility, general transmission expressions, and combined consideration of pharmaceutical opioid and heroin abuse. We demonstrate the usefulness of this model by calibrating it with data for the state of Maine. Model calibration is accompanied by sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to quantify potential error in parameter estimates and forecasts. The model is analyzed to determine the mechanisms most influential to the number of opioid abusers and to find effective ways of controlling opioid abuse prevalence. We found that the mechanisms most influential to the overall number of abusers in Maine are those involved in illicit pharmaceutical opioid abuse transmission. Consequently, preventative strategies that controlled for illicit transmission were more effective over alternative approaches, such as treatment. These results are presented with the hope of helping to inform public policy as to the most effective means of intervention.

Design and Metrological Analysis of a Backlit Vision System for Surface Roughness Measurements of Turned Parts.

The focus of this study is to design a backlit vision instrument capable of measuring surface roughness and to discuss its metrological performance compared to traditional measurement instruments. The instrument is a non-contact high-magnification imaging system characterized by short inspection time which opens the perspective of in-line implementation. We combined the use of the modulation transfer function to evaluate the imaging conditions of an electrically tunable lens to obtain an optimally focused image. We prepared a set of turned steel samples with different roughness in the range Ra 2.4 µm to 15.1 µm. The layout of the instrument is presented, including a discussion on how optimal imaging conditions were obtained. The paper describes the comparison performed on measurements collected with the vision system designed in this work and state-of-the-art instruments. A comparison of the results of the backlit system depends on the values of surface roughness considered; while at larger values of roughness the offset increases, the results are compatible with the ones of the stylus at lower values of roughness. In fact, the error bands are superimposed by at least 58% based on the cases analyzed.

Impact of Estimation Uncertainty in PMU-Based Resynchronization of Continental Europe Synchronous Areas.

Power system stability is a task that every system operator (SO) is required to achieve daily to ensure an uninterruptible power supply. Especially at the transmission level, for each SO it is of utmost importance to ensure proper exchange of information with other SOs, mainly in case of contingencies. However, in the last years, two major events led to the splitting of Continental Europe into two synchronous areas. These events were caused by anomalous conditions which involved in one case the fault of a transmission line and in the other a fire outage in proximity to high-voltage lines. This work analyzes these two events from the measurement point of view. In particular, we discuss the possible impact of estimation uncertainty on control decisions based on measurements of instantaneous frequency. For this purpose, we simulate five different configurations of phasor measurement units (PMUs), as characterized by different signal models, processing routines, and estimation accuracy in the presence of off-nominal or dynamic conditions. The objective is to establish the accuracy of the frequency estimates in transient conditions, more specifically during the resynchronization of the Continental Europe area. Based on this knowledge, it is possible to set more suitable conditions for resynchronization operations: the idea is to consider not only the frequency deviation between the two areas but also to take into account the respective measurement uncertainty. As confirmed by the analysis of the two real-world scenarios, such an approach would allow for minimizing the probability of adverse or even dangerous conditions such as dampened oscillations and inter-modulations.

Structural Uncertainty Analysis of High-Temperature Strain Gauge Based on Monte Carlo Stochastic Finite Element Method.

The high-temperature strain gauge is a sensor for strain measurement in high-temperature environments. The measurement results often have a certain divergence, so the uncertainty of the high-temperature strain gauge system is analyzed theoretically. Firstly, in the conducted research, a deterministic finite element analysis of the temperature field of the strain gauge is carried out using MATLAB software. Then, the primary sub-model method is used to model the system; an equivalent thermal load and force are loaded onto the model. The thermal response of the grid wire is calculated by the finite element method (FEM). Thermal-mechanical coupling analysis is carried out by ANSYS, and the MATLAB program is verified. Finally, the stochastic finite element method (SFEM) combined with the Monte Carlo method (MCM) is used to analyze the effects of the physical parameters, geometric parameters, and load uncertainties on the thermal response of the grid wire. The results show that the difference of temperature and strain calculated by ANSYS and MATLAB is 1.34% and 0.64%, respectively. The calculation program is accurate and effective. The primary sub-model method is suitable for the finite element modeling of strain gauge systems, and the number of elements is reduced effectively. The stochastic uncertainty analysis of the thermal response on the grid wire of a high-temperature strain gauge provides a theoretical basis for the dispersion of the measurement results of the strain gauge.

Numerical analysis of surface hydrogeological water budget to estimate unconfined aquifers recharge.

Under changing climate, groundwater resources are the main drivers of socioeconomic development and ecosystem sustainability. This study assessed the contribution of two adjacent watersheds, Muse Street (MS) and West Wood (WW), with low and high urban development, to the Memphis aquifer recharge process in central Jackson, Tennessee, USA. The numerical MODFLOW model was created using data from 2017 to 2019 and calibrated using reported water budget components derived from in-situ data. The calibrated MODFLOW model was then used to investigate the impact of high and low urban developments on the recharge rate. The hydraulic parameters and recharge rates were optimized by adjusting the groundwater level based on the observed water level using PEST. The stochastic modeling was also carried out using the Latin Hypercube approach to reduce the uncertainty. The calibration results were satisfactory, with RMSE of 0.124 and 0.63 obtained in the WW and MS watersheds, respectively, indicating accurate estimation of the input parameters, precisely the hydrodynamic coefficients. The study results indicate that, per unit area, the MS watershed contributes 119% more to recharge and 186% more to riverbed leakage compared to the WW watershed. However, regarding total recharge and riverbed leakage, the WW watershed contributed more than the MS watershed. The results of this study have enhanced the knowledge of the impact of urbanization on hydrology and the recharge process in watersheds with diverse land uses.

Optimization and multi-uncertainty analysis of best management practices at the watershed scale: A reliability-level based bayesian network approach.

Best management practices (BMPs) have been widely adopted to mitigate diffuse source pollutants, and the simulated processes of its pollutant reduction effectiveness suffer from manifold uncertainties, such as watershed model parameters and climate change. We presented a novel Bayesian modeling framework for BMPs planning, integrating process-based watershed modeling and Bayesian optimization algorithm to reveal the impact of multiple uncertainties. The proposed framework was applied to a BMPs planning case study in the Erhai watershed, the seventh-largest freshwater lake in China. Firstly, priority management areas (PMAs) were identified for BMPs siting using a simulation-optimization approach. Bayesian networks were subsequently embedded to reveal the multiple uncertainty sources in the optimal planning and the reliability level (RL) is introduced to represent the probability to meet the water quality target with BMPs implementation. The results suggest that ENS of discharge and nutrients concentration simulation by LSPC are both greater than 0.5, which displays satisfactory performance. The identified PMAs account for 0.8% of the total watershed areas while contribute to more than 15% of nutrient loadings reduction. The analysis of multiple uncertainty sources reveals that precipitation is the most influential source of uncertainties in BMP effectiveness. The construction of hedgerows plays an important role in the nutrient reduction. With the improvement of the reliability levels, the cost increases sharply, indicating that the implementation of BMPs has a marginal utility. The study addressed the urgent need for effective and efficient BMPs planning by identifying PMAs and addressing multi-source uncertainties.

A novel framework for addressing uncertainties in machine learning-based geospatial approaches for flood prediction.

Globally, many studies on machine learning (ML)-based flood susceptibility modeling have been carried out in recent years. While majority of those models produce reasonably accurate flood predictions, the outcomes are subject to uncertainty since flood susceptibility models (FSMs) may produce varying spatial predictions. However, there have not been many attempts to address these uncertainties because identifying spatial agreement in flood projections is a complex process. This study presents a framework for reducing spatial disagreement among four standalone and hybridized ML-based FSMs: random forest (RF), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and hybridized genetic algorithm-gaussian radial basis function-support vector regression (GA-RBF-SVR). Besides, an optimized model was developed combining the outcomes of those four models. The southwest coastal region of Bangladesh was selected as the case area. A comparable percentage of flood potential area (approximately 60% of the total land areas) was produced by all ML-based models. Despite achieving high prediction accuracy, spatial discrepancy in the model outcomes was observed, with pixel-wise correlation coefficients across different models ranging from 0.62 to 0.91. The optimized model exhibited high prediction accuracy and improved spatial agreement by reducing the number of classification errors. The framework presented in this study might aid in the formulation of risk-based development plans and enhancement of current early warning systems.

A copula model of extracting DEM-based cross-sections for estimating ecological flow regimes in data-limited deltaic-branched river systems.

For operational flood control and estimating ecological flow regimes in deltaic branched-river systems with limited surveyed cross-sections, accurate river stage and discharge estimation using public domain Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-extracted cross-sections are challenging. To estimate the spatiotemporal variability of streamflow and river stage in a deltaic river system using a hydrodynamic model, this study demonstrates a novel copula-based framework to obtain reliable river cross-sections from SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection) DEMs. Firstly, the accuracy of the CSRTM and CASTER models was assessed against the surveyed river cross-sections. Thereafter, the sensitivity of the copula-based river cross-sections was evaluated by simulating river stage and discharge using MIKE11-HD in a complex deltaic branched-river system (7000 km2) of Eastern India having a network of 19 distributaries. For this, three MIKE11-HD models were developed based on surveyed cross-sections and synthetic cross-sections (CSRTM and CASTER models). The results indicated that the developed Copula-SRTM (CSRTM) and Copula-ASTER (CASTER) models significantly reduce biases (NSE>0.8; IOA>0.9) in the DEM-derived cross-sections and hence, are capable of satisfactorily reproducing observed streamflow regimes and water levels using MIKE11-HD. The performance evaluation metrics and uncertainty analysis indicated that the MIKE11-HD model based on the surveyed cross-sections simulates with higher accuracies (streamflow regimes: NSE>0.81; water levels: NSE>0.70). The MIKE11-HD model based on the CSRTM and CASTER cross-sections, reasonably simulates streamflow regimes (CSRTM: NSE>0.74; CASTER: NSE>0.61) and water levels (CSRTM: NSE>0.54; CASTER: NSE>0.51). Conclusively, the proposed framework is a useful tool for the hydrologic community to derive synthetic river cross-sections from public domain DEMs, and simulate streamflow regimes and water levels under data-scarce conditions. This modelling framework can be easily replicated in other river systems of the world under varying topographic and hydro-climatic conditions.

Ecological risk evaluation of ammonia nitrogen pollution in China based on the ecological grey water footprint model.

The biosafety criteria of ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) exhibit uncertainties, posing challenges to the assessment of the hazard of social NH3-N load to aquatic ecosystem. To evaluate this ecological hazard in China, an ecological grey water footprint (E-GWF) model is designed based on the uncertainty analysis theory. In the E-GWF model, the acute toxicity is quantified via short-term E-GWF (E-GWFs) and acute risk (AR), while its chronic toxicity is quantified via long-term E-GWF (E-GWFl) and chronic risk (CR). Results show the following. (i) Compared with the conventional GWF, the E-GWF performs better in the uncertainty analysis of the biosafety threshold, and it is more effective in ecological risk evaluation and environment planning. (ii) The E-GWFs and E-GWFl of NH3-N in China are 309.4 and 2382.5 billion m3, respectively. Regions with large E-GWF are concentrated in the east and south, while regions with small E-GWF are concentrated in the north and west. (iii) The ecological risks of NH3-N in Shanghai City, Tianjin City, Ningxia Province, Hebei Province, Jiangsu Province, Shanxi Province, and Shandong Province belong to the "High" grade. The ecological risks of NH3-N in Tibet and Qinghai Province belong to the "Negligible" grade. (iv) The ecological risk of NH3-N in China is mostly determined by industrial and domestic pollution. (v) To control the risk within allowable grades, the social NH3-N pollution load of China should be decreased to 988.7 kilotons.