Dynamic changes in polioviruses identified by environmental surveillance in Guangzhou, 2009-2021.

Polio cases can be missed by acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) case surveillance alone, emphasizing the importance of environmental surveillance (ES). In this study, to investigate the serotype distribution and epidemiological trends of poliovirus (PV), we characterized PV isolated from domestic sewage in Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China from 2009 to 2021. A total of 624 sewage samples were collected from the Liede Sewage Treatment Plant, and the positive rates of PV and non-polio enteroviruses were 66.67% (416/624) and 78.37% (489/624), respectively. After sewage sample treatment, each sewage sample was inoculated in six replicate tubes of three cell lines, and 3370 viruses were isolated during the 13-year surveillance period. Among these, 1086 isolates were identified as PV, including type 1 PV (21.36%), type 2 PV (29.19%), and type 3 PV (49.48%). Based on VP1 sequences, 1057 strains were identified as Sabin-like, 21 strains were high-mutant vaccines, and eight strains were vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV). The numbers and serotypes of PV isolates in sewage were influenced by the vaccine switch strategy. After type 2 OPV was removed from the trivalent oral PV (OPV) vaccine and a bivalent OPV (bOPV) was adopted in May 2016, the last type 2 PV strain was isolated from sewage, with no detection thereafter. Type 3 PV isolates increased significantly and became the dominant serotype. Before and after the second vaccine switch in January 2020, that is, from the first dose of IPV and second-fourth doses of bOPV to the first two doses of IPV and third-fourth doses of bOPV, there was also a statistical difference in PV positivity rates in sewage samples. Seven type 2 VDPVs and one type 3 VDPV were identified in sewage samples in 2009-2021, and phylogenetic analysis indicated that all VDPVs isolated from ES in Guangdong are newly discovered VDPVs, different from VDPV previously discovered in China, and were classified as ambiguous VDPV. It is noteworthy that no VDPV cases were reported in AFP case surveillance in the same period. In conclusion, continued PV ES in Guangzhou since April 2008 has been a useful supplement to AFP case surveillance, providing an important basis for evaluating the effectiveness of vaccine immunization strategies. ES improves early detection, prevention, and control; accordingly, this strategy can curb the circulation of VDPVs and provide a strong laboratory basis for maintaining a polio-free status.

Resource Needs for the Trivalent Oral Polio to Bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine Switch in Indonesia.

Background: We present an empirical economic cost analysis of the April 2016 switch from trivalent (tOPV) to bivalent (bOPV) oral polio vaccine at the national-level and 3 provinces (Bali, West Sumatera and Nusa Tenggara) for Indonesia's Expanded Program on Immunization. Methods: Data on the quantity and prices of resources used in the 4 World Health Organization guideline phases of the switch were collected at the national-level and in each of the sampled provinces, cities/districts, and health facilities. Costs were calculated as the sum of the value of resources reportedly used in each sampled unit by switch phase. Results: Estimated national-level costs were $46 791. Costs by health system level varied from $9062 to $34 256 at the province-level, from $4576 to $11 936 at the district-level , and from $3488 to $29 175 at the city-level. Estimated national costs ranged from $4 076 446 (Bali, minimum cost scenario) to $28 120 700 (West Sumatera, maximum cost scenario). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the majority of tPOV to bOPV switch costs were borne at the subnational level. Considerable variation in reported costs among health system levels surveyed indicates a need for flexibility in budgeting for globally synchronized public health activities.

Optimal control with multiple human papillomavirus vaccines.

A two-sex, deterministic ordinary differential equations model for human papillomavirus (HPV) is constructed and analyzed for optimal control strategies in a vaccination program administering three types of vaccines in the female population: a bivalent vaccine that targets two HPV types and provides longer duration of protection and cross-protection against some non-target types, a quadrivalent vaccine which targets an additional two HPV types, and a nonavalent vaccine which targets nine HPV types (including those covered by the quadrivalent vaccine), but with lesser type-specific efficacy. Considering constant vaccination controls, the disease-free equilibrium and the effective reproduction number Rv for the autonomous model are computed in terms of the model parameters. Local-asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium is established in terms of Rv. Uncertainty and Sensitivity analyses are carried out to study the influence of various important model parameters on the HPV infection prevalence. Assuming the HPV infection prevalence in the population under the constant control, optimal control theory is used to devise optimal vaccination strategies for the associated non-autonomous model when the vaccination rates are functions of time. The impact of these strategies on the number of infected individuals and the accumulated cost is assessed and compared with the constant control case. Switch times from one vaccine combination to a different combination including the nonavalent vaccine are assessed during an optimally designed HPV immunization program.

Switching from trivalent to quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines in Uruguay: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

We evaluated the cost-utility of replacing trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) with quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) in the current target populations in Uruguay. An existing decision-analytic static cost-effectiveness model was adapted for Uruguay. The population was stratified into age groups. Costs and outcomes were estimated for an average influenza season, based on observed rates from 2013 to 2019 inclusive. Introducing QIV instead of TIV in Uruguay would avoid around 740 additional influenza cases, 500 GP consultations, 15 hospitalizations, and three deaths, and save around 300 workdays, for the same vaccination coverage during an average influenza season. Most of the influenza-related consultations and hospitalizations would be avoided among children ≤4 and adults ≥65 years of age. Using QIV rather than TIV would cost an additional ~US$729,000, but this would be partially offset by savings in consultations and hospitalization costs. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained with QIV would be in the order of US$18,000 for both the payor and societal perspectives, for all age groups, and around US$12,000 for adults ≥65 years of age. The main drivers influencing the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were the vaccine efficacy against the B strains and the percentage of match each season with the B strain included in TIV. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that switching to QIV would provide a favorable cost-utility ratio for 50% of simulations at a willingness-to-pay per QALY of US$20,000. A switch to QIV is expected to be cost-effective for the current target populations in Uruguay, particularly for older adults.

Public health and budget impacts of switching from a trivalent to a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in Paraguay.

This study aimed to investigate the public health and economic benefit of using a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) instead of a trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in past seasons in Paraguay. The budget impact of switching from TIV to QIV in the Immunization Program was also evaluated. The adapted model includes two modules. The first compared retrospectively Health and Economic outcomes resulting from the use of QIV instead of TIV. The second forecast the spending and savings that would be associated with the switch from TIV to QIV. Our findings estimate that the switch from TIV to QIV during the seasons 2012 to 2017 could have prevented around 2,600 influenza cases, 67 hospitalizations and 10 deaths. An alternative scenario using standardized estimates of the burden of influenza showed that 234 influenza-related hospitalizations and 29 deaths could have been prevented. The estimated annual budget impact of a full switch from TIV to QIV was around USD1,6 million both from the payer and societal perspectives. Those results are mainly driven by vaccine prices and coverage rate. In sum, this manuscript describes how the use of QIV instead of TIV could have prevented influenza cases and subsequent complications that led to hospitalizations and deaths. This could have generated savings for the health system and society, offsetting part of the additional investment needed to switch from TIV to QIV.