Global phylodynamic analysis of avian paramyxovirus-1 provides evidence of inter-host transmission and intercontinental spatial diffusion.

BACKGROUND: Avian avulavirus (commonly known as avian paramyxovirus-1 or APMV-1) can cause disease of varying severity in both domestic and wild birds. Understanding how viruses move among hosts and geography would be useful for informing prevention and control efforts. A Bayesian statistical framework was employed to estimate the evolutionary history of 1602 complete fusion gene APMV-1 sequences collected from 1970 to 2016 in order to infer viral transmission between avian host orders and diffusion among geographic regions. Ancestral states were estimated with a non-reversible continuous-time Markov chain model, allowing transition rates between discrete states to be calculated. The evolutionary analyses were stratified by APMV-1 classes I (n = 198) and II (n = 1404), and only those sequences collected between 2006 and 2016 were allowed to contribute host and location information to the viral migration networks. RESULTS: While the current data was unable to assess impact of host domestication status on APMV-1 diffusion, these analyses supported the sharing of APMV-1 among divergent host taxa. The highest supported transition rate for both classes existed from domestic chickens to Anseriformes (class I:6.18 transitions/year, 95% highest posterior density (HPD) 0.31-20.02, Bayes factor (BF) = 367.2; class II:2.88 transitions/year, 95%HPD 1.9-4.06, BF = 34,582.9). Further, among class II viruses, domestic chickens also acted as a source for Columbiformes (BF = 34,582.9), other Galliformes (BF = 34,582.9), and Psittaciformes (BF = 34,582.9). Columbiformes was also a highly supported source to Anseriformes (BF = 322.0) and domestic chickens (BF = 402.6). Additionally, our results provide support for the diffusion of viruses among continents and regions, but no interhemispheric viral exchange between 2006 and 2016. Among class II viruses, the highest transition rates were estimated from South Asia to the Middle East (1.21 transitions/year; 95%HPD 0.36-2.45; BF = 67,107.8), from Europe to East Asia (1.17 transitions/year; 95%HPD 0.12-2.61; BF = 436.2) and from Europe to Africa (1.06 transitions/year, 95%HPD 0.07-2.51; BF = 169.3). CONCLUSIONS: While migration appears to occur infrequently, geographic movement may be important in determining viral diversification and population structure. In contrast, inter-order transmission of APMV-1 may occur readily, but most events are transient with few lineages persisting in novel hosts.

Avian influenza H5N1 viral and bird migration networks in Asia.

The spatial spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 and its long-term persistence in Asia have resulted in avian influenza panzootics and enormous economic losses in the poultry sector. However, an understanding of the regional long-distance transmission and seasonal patterns of the virus is still lacking. In this study, we present a phylogeographic approach to reconstruct the viral migration network. We show that within each wild fowl migratory flyway, the timing of H5N1 outbreaks and viral migrations are closely associated, but little viral transmission was observed between the flyways. The bird migration network is shown to better reflect the observed viral gene sequence data than other networks and contributes to seasonal H5N1 epidemics in local regions and its large-scale transmission along flyways. These findings have potentially far-reaching consequences, improving our understanding of how bird migration drives the periodic reemergence of H5N1 in Asia.

Explaining the geographical origins of seasonal influenza A (H3N2).

Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a host metapopulation representing the temperate north, tropics and temperate south. Although seasonality and air traffic are frequently used to explain global migratory patterns of influenza, we find that other factors may have a comparable or greater impact. Notably, a region's basic reproductive number (R0) strongly affects the antigenic evolution of its viral population and the probability that its strains will spread and fix globally: a 17-28% higher R0 in one region can explain the observed patterns. Seasonality, in contrast, increases the probability that a tropical (less seasonal) population will export evolutionarily successful strains but alone does not predict that these strains will be antigenically advanced. The relative sizes of different host populations, their birth and death rates, and the region in which H3N2 first appears affect influenza's phylogeography in different but relatively minor ways. These results suggest general principles that dictate the spatial dynamics of antigenically evolving pathogens and offer predictions for how changes in human ecology might affect influenza evolution.

Identification of diffusion routes of O/EA-3 topotype of foot-and-mouth disease virus in Africa and Western Asia between 1974 and 2019 - a phylogeographic analysis.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) affects the livestock industry and socioeconomic sustainability of many African countries. The success of FMD control programs in Africa depends largely on understanding the dynamics of FMD virus (FMDV) spread. In light of the recent outbreaks of FMD that affected the North-Western African countries in 2018 and 2019, we investigated the evolutionary phylodynamics of the causative serotype O viral strains all belonging to the East-Africa 3 topotype (O/EA-3). We analyzed a total of 489 sequences encoding the FMDV VP1 genome region generated from samples collected from 25 African and Western Asian countries between 1974 and 2019. Using Bayesian evolutionary models on genomic and epidemiological data, we inferred the routes of introduction and migration of the FMDV O/EA-3 topotype at the inter-regional scale. We inferred a mean substitution rate of 6.64 × 10-3  nt/site/year and we predicted that the most recent common ancestor for our panel of samples circulated between February 1967 and November 1973 in Yemen, likely reflecting the epidemiological situation in under sampled cattle-exporting East African countries. Our study also reinforces the role previously described of Sudan and South Sudan as a frequent source of FMDVs spread. In particular, we identified two transboundary routes of O/EA-3 diffusion: the first from Sudan to North-East Africa, and from the latter into Israel and Palestine AT; a second from Sudan to Nigeria, Cameroon, and from there to further into West and North-West Africa. This study highlights the necessity to reinforce surveillance at an inter-regional scale in Africa and Western Asia, in particular along the identified migration routes for the implementation of efficient control measures in the fight against FMD.

Global genetic variation and transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza virus.

The H9N2 influenza viruses are extensively circulating in the poultry population, and variable genotypes can be generated through mutation, recombination and reassortment, which may be better adapted to infect a new host, resist drug treatment or escape immune pressure. The LPAI H9N2 viruses have the potential to evolve towards high levels of virulence in human. Some studies about the regional dispersal were reported, but global dissemination and the drivers of the virus are poorly understood, particularly at the genome scale. Here, we have analysed all eight gene segments of 168 H9N2 genomes sampled randomly aiming to provide a panoramic framework for better understanding the genesis and genetic variation of the viruses, and utilized phylogeography and spatial epidemiology approaches to uncover the effects of the genetic variation, predictors and spread of H9N2 viruses. We found that more frequent reassortment events involve segments PA, NP and NS, and 21 isolates have possible mosaic structure resulting from recombination events. Estimates of gene-specific global dN/dS ratios showed that all genes were subject to purifying selection. However, a total of 13 sites were detected under positive selection by at least two of three methods, which located within segments HA, NA, M2, NS1 and PA. Additionally, we inferred that NA segment has the highest rate of nucleotide substitution, and its tMRCA estimate is the youngest than the remaining segments' inference. About the spatial history, air transportation of human was identified as the predominant driver of global viral migration using GLM analysis, and economic factors and geographical distance were the modest predictors. Higher migration rates were estimated between five pairs of regions (>0.01) indicating the frequent migration of the viruses between discrete geographical locations. Further, our Markov jumps analysis showed that viral migration is more frequent between Southern China and Northern China, and high rate of gene flow was observed between America and East Asia. Moreover, the America together with Southeast Asia acted as the primary hubs of global transmission, forming the trunk of evolutionary tree. These findings suggested a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology and human behaviour.

Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.

BACKGROUND: The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries. OBJECTIVES: We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar. METHODS: We compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza-positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period. RESULTS: Overall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak. CONCLUSIONS: The timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally particularly in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally.