Smart City Scenario Editor for General What-If Analysis.

Due to increasing urbanization, nowadays, cities are facing challenges spanning multiple domains such as mobility, energy, environment, etc. For example, to reduce traffic congestion, energy consumption, and excessive pollution, big data gathered from legacy systems (e.g., sensors not conformant with modern standards), geographic information systems, gateways of public administrations, and Internet of Things technologies can be exploited to provide insights to assess the current status of a city. Moreover, the possibility to perform what-if analyses is fundamental to analyzing the impact of possible changes in the urban environment. The few available solutions for scenario definitions and analyses are limited to addressing a single domain and providing proprietary formats and tools, with scarce flexibility. Therefore, in this paper, we present a novel scenario model and editor integrated into the open-source Snap4City.org platform to enable several processing and what-if analyses in multiple domains. Different from state-of-the-art software, the proposed solution responds to a series of identified requirements, implements NGSIv2-compliant data models with formal descriptions of the urban context, and a scenario versioning method. Moreover, it allows us to carry out analyses on different domains, as shown with some examples. As a case study, a traffic congestion analysis is provided, confirming the validity and usefulness of the proposed solution. This work was developed in the context of CN MOST, the National Center on Sustainable Mobility in Italy, and for the Tourismo EC project.

The effect of interactive analytical dashboard features on situation awareness and task performance.

In recent years, new types of interactive analytical dashboard features have emerged for operational decision support systems (DSS). Analytical components of such features solve optimization problems hidden from the human eye, whereas interactive components involve the individual in the optimization process via graphical user interfaces (GUIs). Despite their expected value for organizations, little is known about the effectiveness of interactive analytical dashboards in operational DSS or their influences on human cognitive abilities. This paper contributes to the closing of this gap by exploring and empirically testing the effects of interactive analytical dashboard features on situation awareness (SA) and task performance in operational DSS. Using the theoretical lens of SA, we develop hypotheses about the effects of a what-if analysis as an interactive analytical dashboard feature on operational decision-makers' SA and task performance. The resulting research model is studied with a laboratory experiment, including eye-tracking data of 83 participants. Our findings show that although a what-if analysis leads to higher task performance, it may also reduce SA, nourishing a potential out-of-the-loop problem. Thus, designers and users of interactive analytical dashboards have to carefully mitigate these effects in the implementation and application of operational DSS. In this article, we translate our findings into implications for designing dashboards within operational DSS to help practitioners in their efforts to address the danger of the out-of-the-loop syndrome.

Improving hospital bed occupancy and resource utilization through queuing modeling and evolutionary computation.

Scarce healthcare resources require carefully made policies ensuring optimal bed allocation, quality healthcare service, and adequate financial support. This paper proposes a complex analysis of the resource allocation in a hospital department by integrating in the same framework a queuing system, a compartmental model, and an evolutionary-based optimization. The queuing system shapes the flow of patients through the hospital, the compartmental model offers a feasible structure of the hospital department in accordance to the queuing characteristics, and the evolutionary paradigm provides the means to optimize the bed-occupancy management and the resource utilization using a genetic algorithm approach. The paper also focuses on a "What-if analysis" providing a flexible tool to explore the effects on the outcomes of the queuing system and resource utilization through systematic changes in the input parameters. The methodology was illustrated using a simulation based on real data collected from a geriatric department of a hospital from London, UK. In addition, the paper explores the possibility of adapting the methodology to different medical departments (surgery, stroke, and mental illness). Moreover, the paper also focuses on the practical use of the model from the healthcare point of view, by presenting a simulated application.

Forecasting and what-if analysis of new positive COVID-19 cases during the first three waves in Italy.

The joint exploitation of data related to epidemiological, mobility, and restriction aspects of COVID-19 with machine learning algorithms can support the development of predictive models that can be used to forecast new positive cases and study the impact of more or less severe restrictions. In this work, we integrate heterogeneous data from several sources and solve a multivariate time series forecasting task, specifically targeting the Italian case at both national and regional levels, during the first three waves of the pandemic. The goal is to build a robust predictive model to predict the number of new cases over a given time horizon so that any restrictive actions can be better planned. In addition, we perform a what-if analysis based on the best-identified predictive models to evaluate the impact of specific restrictions on the trend of positive cases. Our focus on the first three waves is motivated by the fact that it represents a typical emergency scenario (when no stable cure or vaccine is available) that may occur when a new pandemic spreads. Our experimental results prove that exploiting the considered heterogeneous data leads to accurate predictive models, reaching a WAPE of 5.75% at the national level. Furthermore, in the subsequent what-if analysis, we observed that strong all-in-one initiatives, such as total lockdowns, may not be adequate, while more specific and targeted solutions should be adopted. The developed models can help policy and decision-makers better plan intervention strategies and retrospectively analyze the effects of the decisions made at different scales. Joint exploitation of data on epidemiological, mobility, and restriction aspects of COVID-19 with machine learning algorithms to learn predictive models to forecast new positive cases.

A Bayesian Network Model for Supporting School Managers Decisions in the Pandemic Era.

Due to the dramatic health situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, in Italy the emergency remote teaching lasted longer than in other countries. The mandatory teaching modalities have required digital transformation processes in a framework where digital-divide is one of the limitations to school modernization. We believe that the experience can promote a deeper formatting of organizational process. The paper shows results of a multitarget research carried out during the Italian lockdown aiming at animating the debate around school from multi-actors perspectives and at supporting policies. The paper aims at showing the potentiality of a multivariate statistical method as a tool supporting school managers in identifying those challenges they have to face to improve the setting up of internal processes. The main result is a model supporting the decision making process at orienting school managers strategies.

An Agent-Based Digital Twin for Exploring Localized Non-pharmaceutical Interventions to Control COVID-19 Pandemic.

The COVID-19 epidemic created, at the time of writing the paper, highly unusual and uncertain socio-economic conditions. The world economy was severely impacted and business-as-usual activities severely disrupted. The situation presented the necessity to make a trade-off between individual health and safety on one hand and socio-economic progress on the other. Based on the current understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19, a broad set of control measures has emerged along dimensions such as restricting people's movements, high-volume testing, contract tracing, use of face masks, and enforcement of social-distancing. However, these interventions have their own limitations and varying level of efficacy depending on factors such as the population density and the socio-economic characteristics of the area. To help tailor the intervention, we develop a configurable, fine-grained agent-based simulation model that serves as a virtual representation, i.e., a digital twin of a diverse and heterogeneous area such as a city. In this paper, to illustrate our techniques, we focus our attention on the Indian city of Pune in the western state of Maharashtra. We use the digital twin to simulate various what-if scenarios of interest to (1) predict the spread of the virus; (2) understand the effectiveness of candidate interventions; and (3) predict the consequences of introduction of interventions possibly leading to trade-offs between public health, citizen comfort, and economy. Our model is configured for the specific city of interest and used as an in-silico experimentation aid to predict the trajectory of active infections, mortality rate, load on hospital, and quarantine facility centers for the candidate interventions. The key contributions of this paper are: (1) a novel agent-based model that seamlessly captures people, place, and movement characteristics of the city, COVID-19 virus characteristics, and primitive set of candidate interventions, and (2) a simulation-driven approach to determine the exact intervention that needs to be applied under a given set of circumstances. Although the analysis presented in the paper is highly specific to COVID-19, our tools are generic enough to serve as a template for modeling the impact of future pandemics and formulating bespoke intervention strategies.

Predicting Factors Affecting Adolescent Obesity Using General Bayesian Network and What-If Analysis.

With the remarkable improvement in people's socioeconomic living standards around the world, adolescent obesity has increasingly become an important public health issue that cannot be ignored. Thus, we have implemented its use in an attempt to explore the viability of scenario-based simulations through the use of a data mining approach. In doing so, we wanted to explore the merits of using a General Bayesian Network (GBN) with What-If analysis while exploring how it can be utilized in other areas of public health. We analyzed data from the 2017 Korean Youth Health Behavior Survey conducted directly by the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, including 19 attributes and 11,206 individual data points. Our simulations found that by manipulating the amount of pocket money-between $60 and $80-coupled with a low-income background, it has a high potential to increase obesity compared with other simulated factors. Additionally, when we manipulated an increase in studying time with a mediocre academic performance, it was found to potentially increase pressure on adolescents, which subsequently led to an increased obesity outcome. Lastly, we found that when we manipulated an increase in a father's education level while manipulating a decrease in mother's education level, this had a large effect on the potential adolescent obesity level. Although obesity was the chosen case, this paper acts more as a proof of concept in analyzing public health through GBN and What-If analysis. Therefore, it aims to guide health professionals into potentially expanding their ability to simulate certain outcomes based on predicted changes in certain factors concerning future public health issues.