Permafrost slows Arctic riverbank erosion.

The rate of river migration affects the stability of Arctic infrastructure and communities1,2 and regulates the fluxes of carbon3,4, nutrients5 and sediment6,7 to the oceans. However, predicting how the pace of river migration will change in a warming Arctic8 has so far been stymied by conflicting observations about whether permafrost9 primarily acts to slow10,11 or accelerate12,13 river migration. Here we develop new computational methods that enable the detection of riverbank erosion at length scales 5-10 times smaller than the pixel size in satellite imagery, an innovation that unlocks the ability to quantify erosion at the sub-monthly timescales when rivers undergo their largest variations in water temperature and flow. We use these high-frequency observations to constrain the extent to which erosion is limited by the thermal condition of melting the pore ice that cements bank sediment14, a requirement that will disappear when permafrost thaws, versus the mechanical condition of having sufficient flow to transport the sediment comprising the riverbanks, a condition experienced by all rivers15. Analysis of high-resolution data from the Koyukuk River, Alaska, shows that the presence of permafrost reduces erosion rates by 47%. Using our observations, we calibrate and validate a numerical model that can be applied to diverse Arctic rivers. The model predicts that full permafrost thaw may lead to a 30-100% increase in the migration rates of Arctic rivers.

Overwintering fires in boreal forests.

Forest fires are usually viewed within the context of a single fire season, in which weather conditions and fuel supply can combine to create conditions favourable for fire ignition-usually by lightning or human activity-and spread1-3. But some fires exhibit 'overwintering' behaviour, in which they smoulder through the non-fire season and flare up in the subsequent spring4,5. In boreal (northern) forests, deep organic soils favourable for smouldering6, along with accelerated climate warming7, may present unusually favourable conditions for overwintering. However, the extent of overwintering in boreal forests and the underlying factors influencing this behaviour remain unclear. Here we show that overwintering fires in boreal forests are associated with hot summers generating large fire years and deep burning into organic soils, conditions that have become more frequent in our study areas in recent decades. Our results are based on an algorithm with which we detect overwintering fires in Alaska, USA, and the Northwest Territories, Canada, using field and remote sensing datasets. Between 2002 and 2018, overwintering fires were responsible for 0.8 per cent of the total burned area; however, in one year this amounted to 38 per cent. The spatiotemporal predictability of overwintering fires could be used by fire management agencies to facilitate early detection, which may result in reduced carbon emissions and firefighting costs.

Artificial light at night reveals hotspots and rapid development of industrial activity in the Arctic.

Climate warming enables easier access and operation in the Arctic, fostering industrial and urban development. However, there is no comprehensive pan-Arctic overview of industrial and urban development, which is crucial for the planning of sustainable development of the region. In this study, we utilize satellite-derived artificial light at night (ALAN) data to quantify the hotspots and the development of light-emitting human activity across the Arctic from 1992 to 2013. We find that out of 16.4 million km2 analyzed a total area of 839,710 km2 (5.14%) is lit by human activity with an annual increase of 4.8%. The European Arctic and the oil and gas extraction regions in Russia and Alaska are hotspots of ALAN with up to a third of the land area lit, while the Canadian Arctic remains dark to a large extent. On average, only 15% of lit area in the Arctic contains human settlement, indicating that artificial light is largely attributable to industrial human activity. With this study, we provide a standardized approach to spatially assess human industrial activity across the Arctic, independent from economic data. Our results provide a crucial baseline for sustainable development and conservation planning across the highly vulnerable Arctic region.

Evidence for a survival-driven traveling wave in a keystone boreal predator population.

Cyclical population dynamics are a common phenomenon in populations worldwide, yet the spatial organization of these cycles remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the spatial form and timing of a population collapse from 2018 to 2022 in Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) across the northwest boreal forest. We analyzed survival, reproduction, and dispersal data from 143 individual global positioning system (GPS) collared lynx from populations across five study sites spanning interior Alaska to determine whether lynx displayed characteristics of a population wave following a concurrent wave in snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) abundance. Reproductive rates declined across the study sites; however, site-level reproduction declined first in our easternmost study sites, supporting the idea of a population wave. Despite a clear increase in percent of dispersing lynx, there was no evidence of directional bias in dispersal following a hare population wave. Analysis did show increasingly poor survival for lynx dispersing to the east compared to combined resident and westward dispersal. This pattern is consistent with a survival-mediated population wave in lynx as the driver of the theorized population wave. The combination of these factors supports the idea of a hierarchical response to snowshoe hare population declines with a drop in lynx reproduction followed by increased dispersal, and finally reduced survival. All of this evidence is consistent with the expected characteristics of a population undergoing a traveling wave and supports the hypothesis that lynx presence may facilitate and mirror the underlying wave patterns in snowshoe hare.

Palaeo-Eskimo genetic ancestry and the peopling of Chukotka and North America.

Much of the American Arctic was first settled 5,000 years ago, by groups of people known as Palaeo-Eskimos. They were subsequently joined and largely displaced around 1,000 years ago by ancestors of the present-day Inuit and Yup'ik1-3. The genetic relationship between Palaeo-Eskimos and Native American, Inuit, Yup'ik and Aleut populations remains uncertain4-6. Here we present genomic data for 48 ancient individuals from Chukotka, East Siberia, the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, and the Canadian Arctic. We co-analyse these data with data from present-day Alaskan Iñupiat and West Siberian populations and published genomes. Using methods based on rare-allele and haplotype sharing, as well as established techniques4,7-9, we show that Palaeo-Eskimo-related ancestry is ubiquitous among people who speak Na-Dene and Eskimo-Aleut languages. We develop a comprehensive model for the Holocene peopling events of Chukotka and North America, and show that Na-Dene-speaking peoples, people of the Aleutian Islands, and Yup'ik and Inuit across the Arctic region all share ancestry from a single Palaeo-Eskimo-related Siberian source.

Invasive Pneumococcal Disease and Potential Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Among Adults, Including Persons Experiencing Homelessness-Alaska, 2011-2020.

BACKGROUND: Adults aged ≥65 years, adults with certain underlying medical conditions, and persons experiencing homelessness are at increased risk for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Two new pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15) and 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20), were recently approved for use in US adults. We describe the epidemiology of IPD among Alaska adults and estimate the proportion of IPD cases potentially preventable by new vaccines. METHODS: We used statewide, laboratory-based surveillance data to calculate and compare IPD incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) among Alaska adults aged ≥18 years during 2011-2020 and estimate the proportion of IPD cases that were caused by serotypes in PCV15 and PCV20. RESULTS: During 2011-2020, 1164 IPD cases were reported among Alaska adults for an average annual incidence of 21.3 cases per 100 000 adults per year (95% CI, 20.1-22.5). Incidence increased significantly during the study period (P < .01). IPD incidence among Alaska Native adults was 4.7 times higher than among non-Alaska Native adults (95% CI, 4.2-5.2). Among adults experiencing homelessness in Anchorage, IPD incidence was 72 times higher than in the general adult population (95% CI, 59-89). Overall, 1032 (89%) Alaska adults with IPD had an indication for pneumococcal vaccine according to updated vaccination guidelines; 456 (39%) and 700 (60%) cases were caused by serotypes in PCV15 and PCV20, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Use of PCV15 and PCV20 could substantially reduce IPD among adults in Alaska, including Alaska Native adults and adults experiencing homelessness.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b Infection in Free-Ranging Polar Bear, Alaska, USA.

We report a natural infection with a Eurasian highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus in a free-ranging juvenile polar bear (Ursus maritimus) found dead in North Slope Borough, Alaska, USA. Continued community and hunter-based participation in wildlife health surveillance is key to detecting emerging pathogens in the Arctic.

High dispersal ability versus migratory traditions: Fine-scale population structure and post-glacial colonisation in bar-tailed godwits.

In migratory animals, high mobility may reduce population structure through increased dispersal and enable adaptive responses to environmental change, whereas rigid migratory routines predict low dispersal, increased structure, and limited flexibility to respond to change. We explore the global population structure and phylogeographic history of the bar-tailed godwit, Limosa lapponica, a migratory shorebird known for making the longest non-stop flights of any landbird. Using nextRAD sequencing of 14,318 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and scenario-testing in an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework, we infer that bar-tailed godwits existed in two main lineages at the last glacial maximum, when much of their present-day breeding range persisted in a vast, unglaciated Siberian-Beringian refugium, followed by admixture of these lineages in the eastern Palearctic. Subsequently, population structure developed at both longitudinal extremes: in the east, a genetic cline exists across latitude in the Alaska breeding range of subspecies L. l. baueri; in the west, one lineage diversified into three extant subspecies L. l. lapponica, taymyrensis, and yamalensis, the former two of which migrate through previously glaciated western Europe. In the global range of this long-distance migrant, we found evidence of both (1) fidelity to rigid behavioural routines promoting fine-scale geographic population structure (in the east) and (2) flexibility to colonise recently available migratory flyways and non-breeding areas (in the west). Our results suggest that cultural traditions in highly mobile vertebrates can override the expected effects of high dispersal ability on population structure, and provide insights for the evolution and flexibility of some of the world's longest migrations.

Historical and contemporary processes driving the origin and structure of an admixed population within a contact zone between subspecies of a north temperate diadromous fish.

Hybridization between divergent lineages can result in losses of distinct evolutionary taxa. Alternatively, hybridization can lead to increased genetic variability that may fuel local adaptation and the generation of novel traits and/or taxa. Here, we examined single-nucleotide polymorphisms generated using genotyping-by-sequencing in a population of Dolly Varden char (Pisces: Salmonidae) that is highly admixed within a contact zone between two subspecies (Salvelinus malma malma, Northern Dolly Varden [NDV] and S. m. lordi, Southern Dolly Varden [SDV]) in southwestern Alaska to assess the spatial distribution of hybrids and to test hypotheses on the origin of the admixed population. Ancestry analysis revealed that this admixed population is composed of advanced generation hybrids between NDV and SDV or advanced backcrosses to SDV; no F1 hybrids were detected. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported the origin of this population about 55,000 years ago by secondary contact between NDV and SDV with low levels of contemporary gene flow. Ancestry in NDV and SDV varies within the watershed and ancestry in NDV was positively associated with distance upstream from the sea, contingent on habitat-type sampled, and negatively associated with the number of migrations that individual fish made to the sea. Our results suggest that divergence between subspecies over hundreds of thousands of years may not be associated with significant reproductive isolation, but that elevated diversity owing to hybridization may have contributed to adaptive divergence in habitat use and life history.

Pixel walking along the boreal forest-Arctic tundra ecotone: Large scale ground-truthing of satellite-derived greenness (NDVI).

In this Technical Advance, we describe a novel method to improve ecological interpretation of remotely sensed vegetation greenness measurements that involved sampling 24,395 Landsat pixels (30 m) across 639 km of Alaska's central Brooks Range. The method goes well beyond the spatial scale of traditional plot-based sampling and thereby more thoroughly relates ground-based observations to satellite measurements. Our example dataset illustrates that, along the boreal-Arctic boundary, vegetation with the greatest Landsat Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is taller than 1 m, woody, and deciduous; whereas vegetation with lower NDVI tends to be shorter, evergreen, or non-woody. The field methods and associated analyses advance efforts to inform satellite data with ground-based vegetation observations using field samples collected at spatial scales that closely match the resolution of remotely sensed imagery.

Deciphering the Intricate Control of Minerals on Deep Soil Carbon Stability and Persistence in Alaskan Permafrost.

Understanding the fate of organic carbon in thawed permafrost is crucial for predicting climate feedback. While minerals and microbial necromass are known to play crucial roles in the long-term stability of organic carbon in subsoils, their exact influence on carbon persistence in Arctic permafrost remains uncertain. Our study, combining radiocarbon dating and biomarker analyses, showed that soil organic carbon in Alaskan permafrost had millennial-scale radiocarbon ages and contained only 10%-15% microbial necromass carbon, significantly lower than the global average of ~30%-60%. This ancient carbon exhibited a weak correlation with reactive minerals but a stronger correlation with mineral weathering (reactive iron to total iron ratio). Peroxidase activity displayed a high correlation coefficient (p < 10-6) with Δ14C and δ13C, indicating its strong predictive power for carbon persistence. Further, a positive correlation between peroxidase activity and polysaccharides indicates that increased peroxidase activity may promote the protection of plant residues, potentially by fostering the formation of mineral-organic associations. This protective role of mineral surfaces on biopolymers was further supported by examining 1451 synchrotron radiation infrared spectra from soil aggregates, which revealed a strong correlation between mineral OH groups and organic functional groups at the submicron scale. An incubation experiment revealed that increased moisture contents, particularly within the 0%-40% range, significantly elevated peroxidase activity, suggesting that ancient carbon in permafrost soils is vulnerable to moisture-induced destabilization. Collectively, this study offers mechanistic insights into the persistence of carbon in thawed permafrost soils, essential for refining permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks.

A century of canopy kelp persistence and recovery in the Gulf of Alaska.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coastal Alaska contains vast kelp habitat that supports diverse marine and human communities. Over the past century, the North Pacific Ocean has undergone oceanographic and ecological regime shifts that have the potential to influence the structure and function of kelp ecosystems strongly. However, the remoteness and complexity of the glacially carved region precludes the regular monitoring efforts that would be necessary to detect such changes. METHODS: To begin to fill this critical knowledge gap, we drew upon historical and modern surveys to analyse the change in spatial coverage and species composition of canopy kelp between two time points (1913 and the early 2000s to 2010s). We also incorporated decadal surveys on sea otter range expansion following complete extirpation and reintroduction to assess the influence of sea otter recovery on the spatial extent of canopy kelp. KEY RESULTS: We found increases in the spatial extent of canopy kelp throughout the Gulf of Alaska where there was coverage from both surveys. Kelp in Southcentral Alaska showed extensive recovery after the catastrophic Novarupta volcano. Kelp in Southeast Alaska showed persistence and spatial increase that closely matched increases in the range of sea otters. Observations of thermally tolerant kelp species increased more than observations of cold-adapted species between the two surveys. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to trends observed at lower latitudes, the kelp forests that ring the Gulf of Alaska have been remarkably stable and even increased in the past century, despite oceanographic and ecosystem changes. To improve monitoring, we propose identification of sentinel kelp beds for regular monitoring to detect changes to these iconic and foundational canopy kelp species more readily.

Factors limiting the potential range expansion of lodgepole pine in Interior Alaska.

Understanding the factors influencing species range limits is increasingly crucial in anticipating migrations due to human-caused climate change. In the boreal biome, ongoing climate change and the associated increases in the rate, size, and severity of disturbances may alter the distributions of boreal tree species. Notably, Interior Alaska lacks native pine, a biogeographical anomaly that carries implications for ecosystem structure and function. The current range of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in the adjacent Yukon Territory may expand into Interior Alaska, particularly with human assistance. Evaluating the potential for pine expansion in Alaska requires testing constraints on range limits such as dispersal limitations, environmental tolerance limits, and positive or negative biotic interactions. In this study, we used field experiments with pine seeds and transplanted seedlings, complemented by model simulations, to assess the abiotic and biotic factors influencing lodgepole pine seedling establishment and growth after fire in Interior Alaska. We found that pine could successfully recruit, survive, grow, and reproduce across our broadly distributed network of experimental sites. Our results show that both mammalian herbivory and competition from native tree species are unlikely to constrain pine growth and that environmental conditions commonly found in Interior Alaska fall well within the tolerance limits for pine. If dispersal constraints are released, lodgepole pine could have a geographically expansive range in Alaska, and once established, its growth is sufficient to support pine-dominated stands. Given the impacts of lodgepole pine on ecosystem processes such as increases in timber production, carbon sequestration, landscape flammability, and reduced forage quality, natural or human-assisted migration of this species is likely to substantially alter responses of Alaskan forest ecosystems to climate change.

Genetic and evolutionary divergence of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in Iliamna Lake, Alaska.

Freshwater populations of typically marine species present unique opportunities to investigate biodiversity, evolutionary divergence, and the adaptive potential and niche width of species. A few pinniped species have populations that reside solely in freshwater. The harbour seals inhabiting Iliamna Lake, Alaska constitute one such population. Their remoteness, however, has long hindered scientific inquiry. We used DNA from seal scat and tissue samples provided by Indigenous hunters to screen for mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite variation within Iliamna Lake and eight regions across the Pacific Ocean. The Iliamna seals (i) were substantially and significantly discrete from all other populations ( [Formula: see text]F st-mtDNA = 0.544, [Formula: see text]Φ st - mtDNA = 0.541, [Formula: see text]F st-microsatellites = 0.308), (ii) formed a discrete genetic cluster separate from all marine populations (modal ∆k = 2, PC1 = 14.8%), had (iii) less genetic diversity (Hd, π, H exp), and (iv) higher inbreeding (F) than marine populations. These findings are both striking and unexpected revealing that Iliamna seals have likely been on a separate evolutionary trajectory for some time and may represent a unique evolutionary legacy for the species. Attention must now be given to the selective processes driving evolutionary divergence from harbour seals in marine habitats and to ensuring the future of the Iliamna seal.

Population-level immunologic variation in wild threespine stickleback (Gasterosteusaculeatus).

Wild organisms are regularly exposed to a wide range of parasites, requiring the management of an effective immune response while avoiding immunopathology. Currently, our knowledge of immunoparasitology primarily derives from controlled laboratory studies, neglecting the genetic and environmental diversity that contribute to immune phenotypes observed in wild populations. To gain insight into the immunologic variability in natural settings, we examined differences in immune gene expression of two Alaskan stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations with varying susceptibility to infection by the cestode Schistocephalus solidus. Between these two populations, we found distinct immune gene expression patterns at the population level in response to infection with fish from the high-infection population displaying signs of parasite-driven immune manipulation. Further, we found significant differences in baseline immune gene profiles between the populations, with uninfected low-infection population fish showing signatures of inflammation compared to uninfected high-infection population fish. These results shed light on divergent responses of wild populations to the same parasite, providing valuable insights into host-parasite interactions in natural ecosystems.

Reduced CO2 Release from Arctic Soils Due to CO2 Binding to Calcium Forming Aragonite.

Arctic soils are the largest pool of organic carbon compared with other soils globally and serve as a main source for greenhouse gases, especially in the course of the predicted future temperature increase. With increasing temperatures, substantial thawing of the permafrost layer of soils is expected, altering the availability of calcium in those soils, with an increase by ∼5 mg Ca g-1 DW predicted for Alaska. Here we show for two representative soils in Alaska (initially Ca-poor or Ca-rich) that this increase in Ca availability will lead to decreases in CO2 release by 50% and 57%. It is already well-known that the cation bridging of Ca ions to organic carbon renders this carbon unavailable for microbial respiration and that Ca is altering the transformation of Corg by microbes. Here we show that the decrease of the soil CO2 release may be also due to enhanced aragonite formation (by 300% for Ca-poor and 90-200% for Ca-rich soils), as revealed by synchrotron-based scanning transmission X-ray microscopy. We therefore call upon field experiments for validation of this process and inclusion of this process in global and local carbon budget models.

Residential Wood Burning and Vehicle Emissions as Major Sources of Environmentally Persistent Free Radicals in Fairbanks, Alaska.

Environmentally persistent free radicals (EPFRs) play an important role in aerosol effects on air quality and public health, but their atmospheric abundance and sources are poorly understood. We measured EPFRs contained in PM2.5 collected in Fairbanks, Alaska, in winter 2022. We find that EPFR concentrations were enhanced during surface-based inversion and correlate strongly with incomplete combustion markers, including carbon monoxide and elemental carbon (R2 > 0.75). EPFRs exhibit moderately good correlations with PAHs, biomass burning organic aerosols, and potassium (R2 > 0.4). We also observe strong correlations of EPFRs with hydrocarbon-like organic aerosols, Fe and Ti (R2 > 0.6), and single-particle mass spectrometry measurements reveal internal mixing of PAHs, with potassium and iron. These results suggest that residential wood burning and vehicle tailpipes are major sources of EPFRs and nontailpipe emissions, such as brake wear and road dust, may contribute to the stabilization of EPFRs. Exposure to the observed EPFR concentrations (18 ± 12 pmol m-3) would be equivalent to smoking ∼0.4-1 cigarette daily. Very strong correlations (R2 > 0.8) of EPFR with hydroxyl radical formation in surrogate lung fluid indicate that exposure to EPFRs may induce oxidative stress in the human respiratory tract.

Adapting a Financial Incentives Intervention for Smoking Cessation With Alaska Native Families: Phase 1 Qualitative Research to Inform the Aniqsaaq (To Breathe) Study.

INTRODUCTION: Alaska Native and American Indian (ANAI) peoples in Alaska currently experience a disproportionate burden of morbidity and mortality from tobacco cigarette use. Financial incentives for smoking cessation are evidence-based, but a family-level incentive structure has not been evaluated. We used a community-based participatory research and qualitative approach to culturally adapt a smoking cessation intervention with ANAI families. AIMS AND METHODS: We conducted individual, semistructured telephone interviews with 12 ANAI adults who smoke, 12 adult family members, and 13 Alaska Tribal Health System stakeholders statewide between November 2022 and March 2023. Through content analysis, we explored intervention receptivity, incentive preferences, culturally aligned recruitment and intervention messaging, and future implementation needs. RESULTS: Participants were receptive to the intervention. Involving a family member was viewed as novel and aligned with ANAI cultural values of commitment to community and familial interdependence. Major themes included choosing a family member who is supportive and understanding, keeping materials positive and encouraging, and offering cash and noncash incentives for family members to choose (eg, fuel, groceries, activities). Participants indicated that messaging should emphasize family collaboration and that cessation resources and support tips should be provided. Stakeholders also reinforced that program materials should encourage the use of other existing evidence-based cessation therapies (eg, nicotine replacement, counseling). CONCLUSIONS: Adaptations, grounded in ANAI cultural strengths, were made to the intervention and recruitment materials based on participant feedback. Next steps include a beta-test for feasibility and a randomized controlled trial for efficacy. IMPLICATIONS: This is the first study to design and adapt a financial incentives intervention promoting smoking cessation among ANAI peoples and the first to involve the family system. Feedback from this formative work was used to develop a meaningful family-level incentive structure with ANAI people who smoke and family members and ensure intervention messaging is supportive and culturally aligned. The results provide qualitative knowledge that can inform future family-based interventions with ANAI communities, including our planned randomized controlled trial of the intervention.

Distinct evolutionary lineages of Schistocephalus parasites infecting co-occurring sculpin and stickleback fishes in Alaska.

Sculpins (coastrange and slimy) and sticklebacks (ninespine and threespine) are widely distributed fishes cohabiting 2 south-central Alaskan lakes (Aleknagik and Iliamna), and all these species are parasitized by cryptic diphyllobothriidean cestodes in the genus Schistocephalus. The goal of this investigation was to test for host-specific parasitic relationships between sculpins and sticklebacks based upon morphological traits (segment counts) and sequence variation across the NADH1 gene. A total of 446 plerocercoids was examined. Large, significant differences in mean segment counts were found between cestodes in sculpin (mean = 112; standard deviation [s.d.] = 15) and stickleback (mean = 86; s.d. = 9) hosts within and between lakes. Nucleotide sequence divergence between parasites from sculpin and stickleback hosts was 20.5%, and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis recovered 2 well-supported clades of cestodes reflecting intermediate host family (i.e. sculpin, Cottidae vs stickleback, Gasterosteidae). Our findings point to the presence of a distinct lineage of cryptic Schistocephalus in sculpins from Aleknagik and Iliamna lakes that warrants further investigation to determine appropriate evolutionary and taxonomic recognition.