Trends in Europe storm surge extremes match the rate of sea-level rise.

Coastal communities across the world are already feeling the disastrous impacts of climate change through variations in extreme sea levels1. These variations reflect the combined effect of sea-level rise and changes in storm surge activity. Understanding the relative importance of these two factors in altering the likelihood of extreme events is crucial to the success of coastal adaptation measures. Existing analyses of tide gauge records2-10 agree that sea-level rise has been a considerable driver of trends in sea-level extremes since at least 1960. However, the contribution from changes in storminess remains unclear, owing to the difficulty of inferring this contribution from sparse data and the consequent inconclusive results that have accumulated in the literature11,12. Here we analyse tide gauge observations using spatial Bayesian methods13 to show that, contrary to current thought, trends in surge extremes and sea-level rise both made comparable contributions to the overall change in extreme sea levels in Europe since 1960 . We determine that the trend pattern of surge extremes reflects the contributions from a dominant north-south dipole associated with internal climate variability and a single-sign positive pattern related to anthropogenic forcing. Our results demonstrate that both external and internal influences can considerably affect the likelihood of surge extremes over periods as long as 60 years, suggesting that the current coastal planning practice of assuming stationary surge extremes1,14 might be inadequate.

Mechanisms of climate change and related air pollution on the immune system leading to allergic disease and asthma.

Climate change is considered the greatest threat to global health. Greenhouse gases as well as global surface temperatures have increased causing more frequent and intense heat and cold waves, wildfires, floods, drought, altered rainfall patterns, hurricanes, thunderstorms, air pollution, and windstorms. These extreme weather events have direct and indirect effects on the immune system, leading to allergic disease due to exposure to pollen, molds, and other environmental pollutants. In this review, we will focus on immune mechanisms associated with allergy and asthma-related health risks induced by climate change events. We will review current understanding of the molecular and cellular mechanisms by which the changing environment mediates these effects.

The causal effect of mental health on labor market outcomes: The case of stress-related mental disorders following a human-made disaster.

As disasters increase due to climate change, population density, epidemics, and technology, information is needed about postdisaster consequences for people's mental health and how stress-related mental disorders affect multiple spheres of life, including labor-market attachment. We tested the causal hypothesis that individuals who developed stress-related mental disorders as a consequence of their disaster exposure experienced subsequent weak labor-market attachment and poor work-related outcomes. We leveraged a natural experiment in an instrumental variables model, studying a 2004 fireworks factory explosion disaster that precipitated the onset of stress-related disorders (posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression) among individuals in the local community (N = 86,726). We measured labor-market outcomes using longitudinal population-level administrative data: sick leave, unemployment benefits, early retirement pension, and income from wages from 2007 to 2010. We found that individuals who developed a stress-related disorder after the disaster were likely to go on sickness benefit, both in the short- and long-term, were likely to use unemployment benefits and to lose wage income in the long term. Stress-related disorders did not increase the likelihood of early retirement. The natural experiment design minimized the possibility that omitted confounders biased these effects of mental health on work outcomes. Addressing the mental health and employment needs of survivors after a traumatic experience may improve their labor-market outcomes and their nations' economic outputs.

What's what in a pandemic? Virus, disease, and societal disaster must be differentiated.

Viruses, the diseases they can trigger, and the possible associated societal disaster represent different entities. To engage with the complexities of viral pandemics, we need to recognize each entity by using a distinctive name.

Complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections.

Climatic observables are often correlated across long spatial distances, and extreme events, such as heatwaves or floods, are typically assumed to be related to such teleconnections1,2. Revealing atmospheric teleconnection patterns and understanding their underlying mechanisms is of great importance for weather forecasting in general and extreme-event prediction in particular3,4, especially considering that the characteristics of extreme events have been suggested to change under ongoing anthropogenic climate change5-8. Here we reveal the global coupling pattern of extreme-rainfall events by applying complex-network methodology to high-resolution satellite data and introducing a technique that corrects for multiple-comparison bias in functional networks. We find that the distance distribution of significant connections (P < 0.005) around the globe decays according to a power law up to distances of about 2,500 kilometres. For longer distances, the probability of significant connections is much higher than expected from the scaling of the power law. We attribute the shorter, power-law-distributed connections to regional weather systems. The longer, super-power-law-distributed connections form a global rainfall teleconnection pattern that is probably controlled by upper-level Rossby waves. We show that extreme-rainfall events in the monsoon systems of south-central Asia, east Asia and Africa are significantly synchronized. Moreover, we uncover concise links between south-central Asia and the European and North American extratropics, as well as the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. Analysis of the atmospheric conditions that lead to these teleconnections confirms Rossby waves as the physical mechanism underlying these global teleconnection patterns and emphasizes their crucial role in dynamical tropical-extratropical couplings. Our results provide insights into the function of Rossby waves in creating stable, global-scale dependencies of extreme-rainfall events, and into the potential predictability of associated natural hazards.

Resilience and Disaster: Flexible Adaptation in the Face of Uncertain Threat.

Disasters cause sweeping damage, hardship, and loss of life. In this article, we first consider the dominant psychological approach to disasters and its narrow focus on psychopathology (e.g., posttraumatic stress disorder). We then review research on a broader approach that has identified heterogeneous, highly replicable trajectories of outcome, the most common being stable mental health or resilience. We review trajectory research for different types of disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Next, we consider correlates of the resilience trajectory and note their paradoxically limited ability to predict future resilient outcomes. Research using machine learning algorithms improved prediction but has not yet illuminated the mechanism behind resilient adaptation. To that end, we propose a more direct psychological explanation for resilience based on research on the motivational and mechanistic components of regulatory flexibility. Finally, we consider how future research might leverage new computational approaches to better capture regulatory flexibility in real time.

Natural disaster and immunological aging in a nonhuman primate.

Weather-related disasters are increasing in frequency and severity, leaving survivors to cope with ensuing mental, financial, and physical hardships. This adversity can exacerbate existing morbidities, trigger new ones, and increase the risk of mortality-features that are also characteristic of advanced age-inviting the hypothesis that extreme weather events may accelerate aging. To test this idea, we examined the impact of Hurricane Maria and its aftermath on immune cell gene expression in large, age-matched, cross-sectional samples from free-ranging rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) living on an isolated island. A cross section of macaques was sampled 1 to 4 y before (n = 435) and 1 y after (n = 108) the hurricane. Hurricane Maria was significantly associated with differential expression of 4% of immune-cell-expressed genes, and these effects were correlated with age-associated alterations in gene expression. We further found that individuals exposed to the hurricane had a gene expression profile that was, on average, 1.96 y older than individuals that were not-roughly equivalent to an increase in 7 to 8 y of a human life. Living through an intense hurricane and its aftermath was associated with expression of key immune genes, dysregulated proteostasis networks, and greater expression of inflammatory immune cell-specific marker genes. Together, our findings illuminate potential mechanisms through which the adversity unleashed by extreme weather and potentially other natural disasters might become biologically embedded, accelerate age-related molecular immune phenotypes, and ultimately contribute to earlier onset of disease and death.

Strategic protection of landslide vulnerable mountains for biodiversity conservation under land-cover and climate change impacts.

Natural disasters impose huge uncertainty and loss to human lives and economic activities. Landslides are one disaster that has become more prevalent because of anthropogenic disturbances, such as land-cover changes, land degradation, and expansion of infrastructure. These are further exacerbated by more extreme precipitation due to climate change, which is predicted to trigger more landslides and threaten sustainable development in vulnerable regions. Although biodiversity conservation and development are often regarded as having a trade-off relationship, here we present a global analysis of the area with co-benefits, where conservation through expanding protection and reducing deforestation can not only benefit biodiversity but also reduce landslide risks to human society. High overlap exists between landslide susceptibility and areas of endemism for mammals, birds, and amphibians, which are mostly concentrated in mountain regions. We identified 247 mountain ranges as areas with high vulnerability, having both exceptional biodiversity and landslide risks, accounting for 25.8% of the global mountainous areas. Another 31 biodiverse mountains are classified as future vulnerable mountains as they face increasing landslide risks because of predicted climate change and deforestation. None of these 278 mountains reach the Aichi Target 11 of 17% coverage by protected areas. Of the 278 mountains, 52 need immediate actions because of high vulnerability, severe threats from future deforestation and precipitation extremes, low protection, and high-population density and anthropogenic activities. These actions include protected area expansion, forest conservation, and restoration where it could be a cost-effective way to reduce the risks of landslides.

Protecting Caribbean patients diagnosed with cancer from compounding disasters.

Caribbean small island developing states are becoming increasingly vulnerable to compounding disasters, prominently featuring climate-related hazards and pandemic diseases, which exacerbate existing barriers to cancer control in the region. We describe the complexities of cancer prevention and control efforts throughout the Caribbean small island developing states, including the unique challenges of people diagnosed with cancer in the region. We highlight potential solutions and strategies that concurrently address disaster adaptation and cancer control. Because Caribbean small island developing states are affected first and worst by the hazards of compounding disasters, the innovative solutions developed in the region are relevant for climate mitigation, disaster adaptation, and cancer control efforts globally. In the age of complex and cascading disaster scenarios, developing strategies to mitigate their effect on the cancer control continuum, and protecting the health and safety of people diagnosed with cancer from extreme events become increasingly urgent. The equitable development of such strategies relies on collaborative efforts among professionals whose diverse expertise from complementary fields infuses the local community perspective while focusing on implementing solutions.

Do Adverse Childhood Experiences Modify the Association Between Disaster-Related Trauma and Cognitive Disability?

Identifying subpopulations that are particularly vulnerable to long-term adverse health consequences of disaster-related trauma is needed. We examined whether adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) potentiate the association between disaster-related trauma and subsequent cognitive disability among older adult disaster survivors. Data were from a prospective cohort study of older adults who survived the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The baseline survey pre-dated the disaster by 7 months. We included participants who completed follow-up surveys (2013 and 2016) and did not have a cognitive disability before the disaster (n = 602). Disaster-related traumas (i.e., home loss, loss of friends or pets) and ACEs were retrospectively assessed in 2013. Cognitive disability levels in 2016 were objectively assessed. After adjusting for pre-disaster characteristics using a machine learning-based estimation approach, home loss (0.19, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.09, 0.28) was, on average, associated with greater cognitive disability. Among individuals with ACEs, home loss was associated with even higher cognitive disability levels (0.64, 95% CI: 0.24, 1.03). Losses of friends (0.18, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.32) and pets (0.13, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.25) were associated with higher cognitive disability levels only among those with ACEs. Our findings suggest that individuals with a history of ACEs may be particularly vulnerable to adverse health consequences related to disasters.

Mapping the distance between fire hazard and disaster for communities in Canadian forests.

Communities interspersed throughout the Canadian wildland are threatened by fires that have become bigger and more frequent in some parts of the country in recent decades. Identifying the fireshed (source area) and pathways from which wildland fire may ignite and spread from the landscape to a community is crucial for risk-reduction strategy and planning. We used outputs from a fire simulation model, including fire polygons and rate of spread, to map firesheds, fire pathways and corridors and spread distances for 1980 communities in the forested areas of Canada. We found fireshed sizes are larger in the north, where the mean distances between ecumene and fireshed perimeters were greater than 10 km. The Rayleigh Z test indicated that simulated fires around a large proportion of communities show significant directional trends, and these trends are stronger in the Boreal Plains and Shields than in the Rocky Mountain area. The average distance from which fire, when spreading at the maximum simulated rate, could reach the community perimeter was approximately 5, 12 and 18 km in 1, 2 and 3 days, respectively. The average daily spread distances increased latitudinally, from south to north. Spread distances were the shortest in the Pacific Maritime, Atlantic Maritime and Boreal Plains Ecozones, implying lower rates of spread compared to the rest of the country. The fire corridors generated from random ignitions and from ignitions predicted from local fire history differ, indicating that factors other than fuel (e.g. fire weather, ignition pattern) play a significant role in determining the direction that fires burn into a community.

The Impact of Relocation Patterns on Psychological Stress.

This study investigated how relocation patterns affect disaster survivors' psychological stress on the diverse durations and spaces of relocation. It analyzed a 10-year data set of 1,236 families affected by 2009's Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan, identifying six relocation patterns through dynamic time warping (DTW). A hierarchical linear model was utilized, revealing the discernible impacts of environmental factors, sociocultural factors, and family-level socioeconomic factors on psychological stress. The study revealed that survivors who quickly found stable residences after the disaster initially experienced lower stress levels, but in the long term, their stress increased. Conversely, those with unstable residences experienced higher initial stress but lower long-term stress. Comparing similar patterns, we found that survivors who had more time for preparation and who sought opportunities, coped, or adapted to secondary stressors before long-distance relocation faced lower stress levels. These findings suggest that relocation patterns have a greater impact on the psychosocial stress of disaster survivors than time or relocation distance.

Global, regional and national trends and impacts of natural floods, 1990-2022.

Objective: To assess global, regional and national trends in the impact of floods from 1990 to 2022 and determine factors influencing flood-related deaths. Methods: We used data on flood disasters from the International Disaster Database for 1990-2022 from 168 countries. We calculated the annual percentage change to estimate trends in the rates of people affected and killed by floods by study period, World Health Organization (WHO) region, country income level and flood type. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the factors associated with death from floods. Findings: From 1990 to 2022, 4713 floods were recorded in 168 countries, which affected > 3.2 billion people, caused 218 353 deaths and were responsible for more than 1.3 trillion United States dollars of economic losses. The WHO Western Pacific Region had the most people affected by floods (> 2.0 billion), accounting for 63.19% (2 024 599 380/3 203 944 965) of all affected populations. The South-East Asia Region had the most deaths (71 713, 32.84%). The African and Eastern Mediterranean Regions had the highest number of people affected and killed by floods per 100 000 population in 2022. The odds of floods causing more than 50 deaths were significantly higher in low-income countries (adjusted odds ratio: 14.34; 95% confidence interval: 7.46 to 30.04) compared with high-income countries. Numbers of people affected and mortality due to floods declined over time. Conclusion: Despite the decreases in populations affected and deaths, floods still have a serious impact on people and economies globally, particularly in lower-income countries. Action is needed to improve disaster risk management and flood mitigation.

Global trend and epidemiological profiles of climate-related disasters from 2000 to 2021.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to analyse the epidemiological profile of global climate-related disasters in terms of morbidity and mortality, as well as to examine their temporal trends. METHOD: This cross-sectional study analysed climate-related global disasters from 2000 to 2021, utilising definitions and criteria from the United Nations Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Data were sourced from the EM-DAT database. The study assessed trends over the entire period and compared them with previous years (1978-2000). RESULTS: A total of 7398 climate-related disasters were recorded, with hydrological disasters being the most frequent, followed by meteorological and climatological disasters. Statistically significant differences were noted in the average rates of affected individuals and injuries per million inhabitants. No significant trends were found in mortality rates, but the frequency trends for the entire period (1978-2021) and the subperiod (1978-2000) were increasing and statistically significant. However, the trend from 2000 onwards showed a non-significant decrease, potentially reflecting better disaster preparedness and response strategies under the Hyogo and Sendai Framework. CONCLUSION: The study highlights hydrological disasters as the most frequent and deadliest climate-related events, with climatological disasters affecting and injuring the most people. The lack of standardised criteria for disaster inclusion in databases presents a significant challenge in comparing results and analysing trends. Establishing uniform inclusion criteria is crucial for effective data analysis and disaster management.

Gene drives for the extinction of wild metapopulations.

Population-suppressing gene drives may be capable of extinguishing wild populations, with proposed applications in conservation, agriculture, and public health. However, unintended and potentially disastrous consequences of release of drive-engineered individuals are extremely difficult to predict. We propose a model for the dynamics of a sex ratio-biasing drive, and using simulations, we show that failure of the suppression drive is often a natural outcome due to stochastic and spatial effects. We further demonstrate rock-paper-scissors dynamics among wild-type, drive-infected, and extinct populations that can persist for arbitrarily long times. Gene drive-mediated extinction of wild populations entails critical complications that lurk far beyond the reach of laboratory-based studies. Our findings help in addressing these challenges.

United States Federal Policies Contributing to Health and Health Care Inequities in Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico, a territory of the United States since 1898, has recently experienced an increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and public health emergencies. In 2022, Hurricane Fiona became the latest storm to attract media attention and cast a light on Puerto Rico's deteriorating conditions, including infrastructural failings, health care provider shortages, and high levels of chronic illness. Although recent events have been uniquely devastating, decades of inequitable US federal policy practices have fueled the persistence of health inequities in the territory. Here we demonstrate how existing health and health care inequities in Puerto Rico have been exacerbated by compounding disasters but are rooted in the differential treatment of the territory under US federal policies. Specifically, we focus on the unequal US Federal Emergency Management Agency response to disasters in the territory, the lack of parity in federal Medicaid funding for Puerto Rico, and Puerto Rico's limited political power as a territory of the United States. We also provide empirically supported policy recommendations aimed at reducing health and health care inequities in the often-forgotten US territory of Puerto Rico. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(S6):S478-S484. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307585) [Formula: see text].

Non-cholera Vibrio spp. invasive infections in the summer following May 2023 flood disaster in Romagna, Italy: a case series.

Non-cholera Vibrio spp. includes ubiquitous organisms living in aquatic environments. Their occurrence is associated with global warming and meteorological disasters. In May 2023 the Romagna region, Italy, was affected by severe floods. In the following 15 weeks we observed 5 patients with invasive infections caused by V. vulnificus (3/5) and V. harveyi (2/5). All patients (median age 77 years) had medical comorbidities and shared exposure to seawater. Two patients needed surgery; 2 died. In conclusion, we observed an increased burden of Vibrio spp. invasive infections after May 2023 floods, affecting old patients with predisposing medical conditions.

Association of disaster-related damage with inflammatory diet among older survivors of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.

Traumatic experiences from disasters have enduring effects on health, both directly and indirectly by influencing health behaviours. Among potential pathways, the impact of disaster-related trauma on dietary patterns has been understudied. This study investigated the relationship between disaster-related trauma and dietary inflammatory index (DII®), and how these relationships differed by gender and whether they prepare meal by themselves or not among older survivors of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (n 1375). Dietary data were collected in 2020 using a brief-type self-administered diet history questionnaire, from which we derived a dietary inflammatory index (DII®) based on twenty-six food/nutrient items, where higher scores indicate pro-inflammatory (i.e. unhealthy) diet. We found that the experience of housing damage due to the earthquake and tsunami was associated with slightly higher DII scores (coef. = 0·38, 95 % CI -0·05, 0·81). Specifically, women who cooked by themselves tended to have higher DII when they experienced housing damage (coef. = 1·33, 95 %CI -0·63, 3·28). On the other hand, loss of friends was associated with a lower DII score (coef. = -0·28, 95 % CI -0·54, -0·01). These findings highlight the importance of providing support to groups who are at increased risk of deterioration in dietary quality in the aftermath of disasters.

Climate Justice Implications of Natech Disasters: Excess Contaminant Releases during Hurricanes on the Texas Gulf Coast.

Extreme weather events are becoming more severe due to climate change, increasing the risk of contaminant releases from hazardous sites disproportionately located in low-income communities of color. We evaluated contaminant releases during Hurricanes Rita, Ike, and Harvey in Texas and used regression models to estimate associations between neighborhood racial/ethnic composition and residential proximity to hurricane-related contaminant releases. Two-to-three times as many excess releases were reported during hurricanes compared to business-as-usual periods. Petrochemical manufacturing and refineries were responsible for most air emissions events. Multivariable models revealed sociodemographic disparities in likelihood of releases; compared to neighborhoods near regulated facilities without a release, a one-percent increase in Hispanic residents was associated with a 5 and 10% increase in the likelihood of an air emissions event downwind and within 2 km during Hurricanes Rita and Ike (odds ratio and 95% credible interval= 1.05 [1.00, 1.13], combined model) and Harvey (1.10 [1.00, 1.23]), respectively. Higher percentages of renters (1.07 [1.03, 1.11], combined Rita and Ike model) and rates of poverty (1.06 [1.01, 1.12], Harvey model) were associated with a higher likelihood of a release to land or water, while the percentage of Black residents (0.94 [0.89, 1.00], Harvey model) was associated with a slightly lower likelihood. Population density was consistently associated with a decreased likelihood of a contaminant release to air, land, or water. Our findings highlight social inequalities in the risks posed by natural-technological disasters that disproportionately impact Hispanic, renter, low-income, and rural populations.