Modeling the evolution of the US opioid crisis for national policy development.

The opioid crisis is a major public health challenge in the United States, killing about 70,000 people in 2020 alone. Long delays and feedbacks between policy actions and their effects on drug-use behavior create dynamic complexity, complicating policy decision-making. In 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine called for a quantitative systems model to help understand and address this complexity and guide policy decisions. Here, we present SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), a dynamic simulation model developed in response to that charge. SOURCE tracks the US population aged ≥12 y through the stages of prescription and illicit opioid (e.g., heroin, illicit fentanyl) misuse and use disorder, addiction treatment, remission, and overdose death. Using data spanning from 1999 to 2020, we highlight how risks of drug use initiation and overdose have evolved in response to essential endogenous feedback mechanisms, including: 1) social influence on drug use initiation and escalation among people who use opioids; 2) risk perception and response based on overdose mortality, influencing potential new initiates; and 3) capacity limits on treatment engagement; as well as other drivers, such as 4) supply-side changes in prescription opioid and heroin availability; and 5) the competing influences of illicit fentanyl and overdose death prevention efforts. Our estimates yield a more nuanced understanding of the historical trajectory of the crisis, providing a basis for projecting future scenarios and informing policy planning.

Firearm-Related Injuries and the US Opioid and Other Substance Use Epidemic: A Nationwide Evaluation of Emergency Department Encounters.

INTRODUCTION: There has been a sharp climb in the Unites States' death rate among opioid and other substance abuse patients, as well as an increased prevalence in gun violence. We aimed to investigate the association between substance abuse and gun violence in a national sample of patients presenting to US emergency departments (EDs). METHODS: We queried the 2018-2019 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample for patients ≥18 years with substance abuse disorders (opioid and other) using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Within this sample, we analyzed characteristics and outcomes of patients with firearm-related injuries. The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were ED charges and length of stay. RESULTS: Among the 25.2 million substance use disorder (SUD) patients in our analysis, 35,306 (0.14%) had a firearm-related diagnosis. Compared to other SUD patients, firearm-SUD patients were younger (33.3 versus 44.7 years, P < 0.001), primarily male (88.6% versus 54.2%, P < 0.001), of lower-income status (0-25th percentile income: 56.4% versus 40.5%, P < 0.001), and more likely to be insured by Medicaid or self-pay (71.6% versus 53.2%, P < 0.001). Firearm-SUD patients had higher mortality (1.4% versus 0.4%, P < 0.001), longer lengths of stay (6.5 versus 4.9 days, P < 0.001), and higher ED charges ($9269 versus $5,164, P < 0.001). Firearm-SUD patients had a 60.3% rate of psychiatric diagnoses. Firearm-SUD patients had 5.5 times greater odds of mortality in adjusted analyses (adjusted odds ratio: 5.5, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Opioid-substance abuse patients with firearm injuries have higher mortality rates and costs among these groups, with limited discharge to postacute care resources. All these factors together point to the urgent need for improved screening and treatment for this vulnerable group of patients.

Effect of the opioid crisis on the liver transplantation donor pool: A national analysis.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decade there has been a surge in overdose deaths due to the opioid crisis. We sought to characterize the temporal change in overdose donor (OD) use in liver transplantation (LT), as well as associated post-LT outcomes, relative to the COVID-19 era. METHODS: LT candidates and donors listed between January 2016 and September 2022 were identified from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database. Trends in LT donors and changes related to OD were assessed pre- versus post-COVID-19 (February 2020). RESULTS: Between 2016 and 2022, most counties in the United States experienced an increase in overdose-related deaths (n = 1284, 92.3%) with many counties (n = 458, 32.9%) having more than a doubling in drug overdose deaths. Concurrently, there was an 11.2% increase in overall donors, including a 41.7% increase in the number of donors who died from drug overdose. In pre-COVID-19 overdose was the 4th top mechanism of donor death, while in the post-COVID-19 era, overdose was the 2nd most common cause of donor death. OD was younger (OD: 35 yrs, IQR 29-43 vs. non-OD: 43 yrs, IQR 31-56), had lower body mass index (≥35 kg/cm2, OD: 31.2% vs. non-OD: 33.5%), and was more likely to be HCV+ (OD: 28.9% vs. non-OD: 5.4%) with lower total bilirubin (≥1.1 mg/dL, OD: 12.9% vs. non-OD: 20.1%) (all p < .001). Receipt of an OD was not associated with worse graft survival (HR .94, 95% CI .88-1.01, p = .09). CONCLUSIONS: Opioid deaths markedly increased following the COVID-19 pandemic, substantially altering the LT donor pool in the United States.

Mile high on heroin: Lessons on the opioid epidemic from the Mile High City.

This commentary discusses the novelty of the preclinical opioid choice model published in Heinsbroek et al., Nat Commun, 2021, and the potential influence of altitude on the reported findings. The studies were performed in the Mile High City of Denver, Colorado, where a unique subpopulation of heroin-choosing rats were noted.

Polysubstance mortality trends in White and Black Americans during the opioid epidemic, 1999-2018.

BACKGROUND: Psychoactive drug combinations are increasingly contributing to overdose deaths among White and Black Americans. To understand the evolving nature of overdose crisis, inform policies, and develop tailored and equitable interventions, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of polysubstance mortality trends by race and sex during the opioid epidemic. METHODS: We used serial cross-sectional US mortality data for White and Black populations from 1999 through 2018 to calculate annual age-adjusted death rates (AADR) involving any opioid, opioid subtypes, benzodiazepines, cocaine, psychostimulants, or combinations of these drugs, stratified by race and sex. Trend changes in AADR were analyzed using joinpoint regression models and expressed as average annual percent change (AAPC) during each period of the three waves of the opioid epidemic: 1999-2010 (wave 1), 2010-2013 (wave 2), and 2013-2018 (wave 3). Prevalence measures assessed the percent co-involvement of an investigated drug in the overall death from another drug. RESULTS: Polysubstance mortality has shifted from a modest rise in death rates due to benzodiazepine-opioid overdoses among White persons (wave 1) to a substantial increase in death rates due to illicit drug combinations impacting both White and Black populations (wave 3). Concurrent cocaine-opioid use had the highest polysubstance mortality rates in 2018 among Black (5.28 per 100,000) and White (3.53 per 100,000) persons. The steepest increase in death rates during wave 3 was observed across all psychoactive drugs when combined with synthetic opioids in both racial groups. Since 2013, Black persons have died faster from cocaine-opioid and psychostimulant-opioid overdoses. Between 2013 and 2018, opioids were highly prevalent in cocaine-related deaths, increasing by 33% in White persons compared to 135% in Blacks. By 2018, opioids contributed to approximately half of psychostimulant and 85% of benzodiazepine fatal overdoses in both groups. The magnitude and type of drug combinations with the highest death rates differed by race and sex, with Black men exhibiting the highest overdose burden beginning in 2013. CONCLUSIONS: The current drug crisis should be considered in the context of polysubstance use. Effective measures and policies are needed to curb synthetic opioid-involved deaths and address disparate mortality rates in Black communities.

Is peer support a tipping point for the opioid use disorder crisis in Appalachia? Research holds the answer.

BACKGROUND: The present commentary highlights the pressing need for systematic research to assess the implementation and effectiveness of medications for opioid use disorder, used in conjunction with peer recovery support services, to improve treatment outcomes for individuals with opioid use disorder in Central Appalachia. This region, encompassing West Virginia, Eastern Kentucky, Southwest Virginia, East Tennessee, and Western North Carolina, has long grappled with a disproportionate burden of the opioid crisis. Due to a complex interplay of cultural, socioeconomic, medical, and geographic factors, individuals in Central Appalachia face challenges in maintaining treatment and recovery efforts, leading to lower success rates. APPROACH: To address the issue, we apply an exploratory approach, looking at the intersection of unique regional factors with the utilization of medications for opioid use disorder, in conjunction with peer recovery support services. This combined treatment strategy shows promise in addressing crucial needs in opioid use disorder treatment and enhancing the recovery journey. However, there are significant evidence gaps that need to be addressed to validate the expected value of incorporating peer support into this treatment strategy. CONCLUSION: We identify nine obstacles and offer recommendations to address the gaps and advance peer recovery support services research. These recommendations include the establishment of specific partnerships and infrastructure for community-engaged, peer recovery support research; improved allocation of funding and resources to implement evidence-based practices such as peer support and medication-assisted treatment; developing a more precise definition of peer roles and their integration across the treatment and recovery spectrum; and proactive efforts to combat stigma through outreach and education.

Systemized approach to equipping medical students with naloxone: a student-driven initiative to combat the opioid crisis.

BACKGROUND: Naloxone is an effective and safe opioid reversal medication now approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for use with or without a prescription. Despite this, naloxone dissemination lags at a time when U.S. opioid-related mortality expands. The authors proposed distributing naloxone to all U.S. medical students using established statewide standing prescription orders for naloxone, eliminating the financial burden of over-the-counter costs on students and streamlining workflow for the pharmacy. By focusing naloxone distribution on medical students, we are able to capitalize on a group that is already primed on healthcare intervention, while also working to combat stigma in the emerging physician workforce. METHODS: Beginning August 2022, the authors established a partnership between Harvard Medical School (HMS) and the outpatient pharmacy at Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) to facilitate access to naloxone for HMS medical students. BWH developed a HIPAA-secure electronic form to collect individual prescription information. BWH pharmacists processed submissions daily, integrating the naloxone prescription requests into their workflow for in-person pick-up or mail-order delivery. The electronic form was disseminated to medical students through a required longitudinal addiction medicine curriculum, listserv messaging, and an extracurricular harm reduction workshop. RESULTS: Over the 2022-2023 academic year, 63 medical students obtained naloxone kits (two doses per kit) through this collaboration. CONCLUSIONS: We propose that medical schools advocate for a hospital pharmacy-initiated workflow focused on convenience and accessibility to expand naloxone access to medical students as a strategy to strengthen the U.S. emergency response and prevention efforts aimed at reducing opioid-related morbidity and mortality. Expansion of our program to BWH internal medicine residents increased our distribution to over 110 healthcare workers, and efforts to expand the program to other BWH training programs and clinical sites such as the emergency department and outpatient infectious disease clinics are underway. With more than 90,000 medical students in the U.S., we believe that widespread implementation of targeted naloxone training and distribution to this population is an accessible approach to combating the public health crisis of opioid-related overdoses.

Developing a national undergraduate medical education pain management and substance use disorder curriculum to address the opioid crisis: a program evaluation pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Pain and addiction are one of the most common reasons for adults to seek health care, yet educational programs focused on pain are often underrepresented in medical school curricula. In January 2021, the Association of Faculties of Medicine of Canada (AFMC) launched an online national, bilingual, competency-based curriculum for undergraduate medical (UGME) students in pain management and substance use in response to the opioid crisis and to bridge the content gaps in programs across Canada. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the pilot of this national curriculum. METHODS: UGME students, from across Canada, participated in the program evaluation by completing online pre- and post-program surveys that assessed the influence of the curriculum on participants' knowledge as well as the value, usability, and feasibility of this curriculum. RESULTS: Participants' perceived confidence in their new knowledge and in utilizing resources required to maintain their knowledge significantly increased (75% and 51% respectively). Their perceived knowledge that addressed the 72 learning objectives within the curriculum significantly increased from pre- to post-program. Over 90% of participants reported that the curriculum was valuable, feasible, and usable. The most frequently discussed program strengths were the clear and comprehensive content, interactive and well-organized design, and relevance of curriculum content for future clinical practice. The overall weakness of the curriculum included the length, repetition of content, the lack of clarity and relevance of the assessment questions, end-user technology issues, and French translation discrepancies. Participant's recommendations for improving the curriculum included streamlining content, addressing technology issues, and enhancing the clarity and relevance of assessment questions embedded within each of the modules. CONCLUSION: Participants agreed that an online pain management and substance use curriculum is a valuable, usable, and feasible learning opportunity. Given the severity of the opioid crisis in Canada, these online modules provide a curriculum that can be integrated into existing UGME programs or can provide self-directed learning.

Inside "Operation Change Agent": Mallinckrodt's Plan for Capturing the Opioid Market.

CONTEXT: The United States is deeply entangled in an opioid crisis that began with the overuse of prescription painkillers. At the height of the prescription opioid crisis (2006-2012), Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals was the nation's largest opioid manufacturer. This study explores Mallinckrodt's strategies for expanding its market share by promoting a new opioid. METHODS: The authors used the Opioid Industry Document Archive to analyze the incentive structures, sales contests, and rhetorical strategy behind Mallinckrodt's "Operation Change Agent," a campaign to switch patients from OxyContin to Mallinckrodt-manufactured painkillers. A structured search of the archive in October 2022 retrieved 464 documents dated between 2010 and 2020. FINDINGS: The authors identified a range of Mallinckrodt's sales force motivational techniques, including hypertargeting high-decile prescribers, providing free trial kits, using emotion-based language to connect with prescribers, and strategies for opposing prescriber resistance. Throughout, managers used specific incentivization metaphors to frame strategies in terms of sport and ultramarathons. CONCLUSIONS: This research on internal corporate strategy joins the growing challenges to industry claims that opioid sales teams simply educated providers and helped fill existing demand for their products. It has important implications for regulatory policy and consumer protections that can better protect health in the face of competitive market forces.

How Social Workers Can Be Deployed to Assist with the Ongoing Opioid Crisis.

The opioid epidemic has claimed more than 1 million lives in the United States over the past two decades. The persistent increase in deaths indicates that current strategies intended to decrease the negative consequences of opioid use are inadequate. Harm reduction strategies are designed to promote safer substance usage and reduce overdose mortality rates, yet the implementation of harm reduction programs is inhibited by community- and provider-level stigma against people who use opioids, coupled with limited understanding and insufficient education about harm reduction approaches. Despite ongoing research, engagement in opioid treatment programs remains a challenge, and the opioid crisis continues to disproportionately harm marginalized populations. This article describes how social workers are prepared to play a larger role in opioid use treatment because they are trained with the skill set and values necessary to facilitate access to harm reduction programs, promote engagement in substance use treatment, and create and advocate for interventions to address problematic substance use, especially in high-need communities.

Perioperative pain optimization in the age of the opioid epidemic.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The opioid epidemic remains a constant and increasing threat to our society with overdoses and overdose deaths rising significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Growing evidence suggests a link between perioperative opioid use, postoperative opioid prescribing, and the development of opioid use disorder (OUD). As a result, strategies to better optimize pain management during the perioperative period are urgently needed. The purpose of this review is to summarize the most recent multimodal analgesia (MMA) recommendations, summarize evidence for efficacy surrounding the increased utilization of Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) protocols, and discuss the implications for rising use of buprenorphine for OUD patients who present for surgery. In addition, this review will explore opportunities to expand our treatment of complex patients via transitional pain services. RECENT FINDINGS: There is ample evidence to support the benefits of MMA. However, optimal drug combinations remain understudied, presenting a target area for future research. ERAS protocols provide a more systematic and targeted approach for implementing MMA. ERAS protocols also allow for a more comprehensive approach to perioperative pain management by necessitating the involvement of surgical specialists. Increasingly, OUD patients taking buprenorphine are presenting for surgery. Recent guidance from a multisociety OUD working group recommends that buprenorphine not be routinely discontinued or tapered perioperatively. Lastly, there is emerging evidence to justify the use of transitional pain services for more comprehensive treatment of complex patients, like those with chronic pain, preoperative opioid tolerance, or substance use disorder. SUMMARY: Perioperative physicians must be aware of the impact of the opioid epidemic and explore methods like MMA techniques, ERAS protocols, and transitional pain services to improve the perioperative pain experience and decrease the risks of opioid-related harm.

The Opioid Epidemic and Faith-Based Responses in Southern Appalachia, USA: An Exploration of Factors for Successful Cross-Sector Collaboration.

This study aimed to identify factors for successful cross-sector collaboration with faith-based responses to the opioid epidemic in southern Appalachia. In-depth interviews were conducted with representatives from organizations responding to the opioid epidemic (N = 25) and persons who have experienced opioid dependency (N = 11). Stakeholders perceived that collaboration is hindered by stigma, poor communication, and conflicting medical and spiritual approaches to opioid dependency. Collaborations are facilitated by cultivating compassion and trust, sharing information along relational lines, and discerning shared commitments while respecting different approaches. The study concludes with theoretical and practical implications for both religious leaders and potential cross-sector collaborators.

Data needs and models for the opioid epidemic.

The evolving nature of the opioid epidemic and continued increases in overdose deaths highlight a need for fundamental change in the collection and use of surveillance data to link them to implementation of effective service, treatment, and prevention approaches. Yet at present, the quality and timeliness of US surveillance data often limits data-driven approaches. We review current information needs, summarize limitations of existing data, propose complementary surveillance resources, and provide examples of promising approaches designed to meet the needs of data end-users. We conclude that there is a need for an approach that focuses on the needs of data end-users, such as public health systems leaders, policy makers, public, nonprofit and prepaid healthcare systems, and other systems, such as the justice system. Such an approach, which may require investments in new infrastructure, should prioritize improvements in data timeliness, sample representativeness, database linkage, and increased flexibility to adapt to shifts in the environment, while preserving the privacy of survey participants. Use of simulations, distributed research and data networks, alternative data sources, such as wastewater or digital data collection and use of blockchain technology, are some of promising avenues toward an improved and more user-centered surveillance system.

Methods for jurisdictional vulnerability assessment of opioid-related outcomes.

In 2020, an estimated 2.7 million people in the US had opioid use disorder, increasing their risk of opioid-related morbidity and mortality. While jurisdictional vulnerability assessments (JVA) of opioid-related outcomes have been conducted previously in the US, there has been no unifying methodological framework. Between 2019 and 2021, we prepared ten JVAs, in collaboration with the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and state public health agencies, to evaluate the risk for opioid-involved overdose (OOD) fatalities and related consequences. Our aim is to share the framework we developed for these ten JVAs, based on our study of the work of Van Handel et al. from 2016, as well as a summary of 18 publicly available assessments of OOD or associated hepatitis C virus infection vulnerability. We developed a three-tiered framework that can be applied by jurisdictions based on the number of units of analysis (e.g., counties, ZIP Codes, census tracts): under 10 (Tier 1), 10 to <50 (Tier 2), and 50 or more (Tier 3). We calculated OOD vulnerability indices based on variable ranks, weighted variable ranks, or multivariable regressions, respectively, for the three tiers. We developed thematic maps, conducted spatial analyses, and visualized service provider locations, drive-time service areas, and service accessibility relative to OOD risk. The methodological framework and examples of our findings from several jurisdictions can be used as a foundation for future assessments and help inform policies to mitigate the impact of the opioid overdose crisis.

The United States opioid crisis: Big pharma alone is not to blame."

OBJECTIVE: The opioid crisis in the United States continues essentially unabated, fueled by fentanyl contamination of the heroin supply and resulting in 79,770 reported opioid-involved overdose deaths in the calendar year 2022. To prevent another such crisis emerging, it is necessary to fully identify its root causes. METHODS: Despite the well-recognized role the pharmaceutical industry played in facilitating the crisis via the aggressive marketing of prescription opioids, several other less appreciated but perhaps more influential factors were also contributors, and the overall goal of this review is to ensure that these are not be lost to history in a concerted effort to blame opioid manufacturers and distributors. Presented is a historical review of research and regulatory documents beginning with the loosening of opioid prescription for chronic pain through current thought and practice today. Beginning with a necessary decoupling of the current opioid crisis from the increased use of opioids to treat chronic pain, this review will examine these contributing factors. RESULTS: Clinical concerns about under- or untreated pain, practice guidelines from standard-setting organizations and government entities, and a health system-wide move away from specialty interdisciplinary pain programs together set the stage for an over-reliance on opioids in chronic pain care. CONCLUSIONS: This review reminds the health care community that despite the deep pockets of the pharmaceutical industry and highly the organized efforts of the drug cartels, additional self-reflection is warranted to fully understand the true root causes of the current epidemic and ways to prevent similar epidemics in the future.

Modeling Opioid Abuse: A Case Study of the Opioid Crisis in New England.

For the past two decades, the USA has been embroiled in a growing prescription drug epidemic. The ripples of this epidemic have been especially apparent in the state of Maine, which has fought hard to mitigate the damage caused by addiction to pharmaceutical and illicit opioids. In this study, we construct a mathematical model of the opioid epidemic incorporating novel features important to better understanding opioid abuse dynamics. These features include demographic differences in population susceptibility, general transmission expressions, and combined consideration of pharmaceutical opioid and heroin abuse. We demonstrate the usefulness of this model by calibrating it with data for the state of Maine. Model calibration is accompanied by sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to quantify potential error in parameter estimates and forecasts. The model is analyzed to determine the mechanisms most influential to the number of opioid abusers and to find effective ways of controlling opioid abuse prevalence. We found that the mechanisms most influential to the overall number of abusers in Maine are those involved in illicit pharmaceutical opioid abuse transmission. Consequently, preventative strategies that controlled for illicit transmission were more effective over alternative approaches, such as treatment. These results are presented with the hope of helping to inform public policy as to the most effective means of intervention.

Growth in Suicide Rates Among Children During the Illicit Opioid Crisis.

This article documents child suicide rates from 1980 to 2020 in the United States using the National Vital Statistics System Multiple Cause of Death database. After generally declining for decades, suicide rates among children aged 10-17 accelerated from 2011 to 2018 in an unprecedented rise in both duration and magnitude. I consider the role of the illicit opioid crisis in driving this mental health crisis. In August 2010, an abuse-deterrent version of OxyContin was introduced and the original formulation was removed from the market, leading to a shift to illicit opioids and stimulating growth in illicit opioid markets. Areas more exposed to reformulation-as measured by pre-reformulation rates of OxyContin misuse in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health-were more affected by the transition to illicit opioids and experienced sharper growth in child suicide rates. The evidence suggests that children's illicit opioid use did not increase, implying that the illicit opioid crisis engendered higher suicide propensities by increasing suicidal risk factors for children, such as increasing rates of child neglect and altering household living arrangements. In complementary analyses, I document how living conditions declined for children during this time period.