The Price Elasticity of Cigarettes: New Evidence From Spanish Regions, 2002-2016.

INTRODUCTION: There is an agreement in the literature that tobacco price elasticity is around -0.4 for given location. Furthermore, works only focus separately, on the temporal dimension or the spatial dimension, however, there are studies that show the existence of spillovers between different geographical areas due to the spatial dependence in tobacco consumption. The novelty of this study is the measurement of the effect that neighboring regions have on the price elasticity of cigarettes. AIMS AND METHODS: This study simultaneously analyzed, first, a dynamic spatial model used to measure the price elasticity of cigarettes in the short term and long term of the 47 provinces that make up the Spanish territory, detailing the influence of neighbors. Second, given the spatial arrangement of the elasticities observed in the provinces, we can detect behaviors typical of large-scale illicit trade and cross-border purchasing since geographical location can be an important factor in smuggling, and politicians should take this into account when making price policies. RESULTS: Results reveal that the consumption of the regions is influenced by the consumption of the neighboring regions in the same period. The price elasticity of cigarettes in the long term exceeds in many cases, in absolute value, unity. This result is novel because tobacco has historically been treated as an inelastic demand good. Finally, we found that the regions that are most sensitive to price are those bordering France and Gibraltar or tourist regions, demonstrating the effect that smuggling has on the behavior of the regions. CONCLUSIONS: These results are important because the price in Spain is set by the central government and fiscal policies regarding the price of tobacco can have different effects in different regions. This study has shown that the consumption of cigarettes is influenced by the neighboring regions and also measured different sensitivities for each region. Regional cooperation in tobacco control policies may have better effects than the elaborated policies based on historical information. IMPLICATIONS: Policy makers should consider that tobacco could be an elastic good in the long term and that cooperation between countries in terms of price differential should be taken to avoid tobacco smuggling. The allocation of resources to control smoking should consider the special dependence shown in this report. Also, academics should account for spatial dependence to measure tobacco consumption instead of temporal analysis.

Exceeding WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) Obligations: Nepal Overcoming Tobacco Industry Interference to Enact a Comprehensive Tobacco Control Policy.

BACKGROUND: The tobacco industry works to block, delay, and weaken national tobacco control legislation to implement the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). This article reviews how Nepal overcame industry opposition and to a comprehensive tobacco control law implementing the FCTC. METHODS: We triangulated newspaper articles and policy documents with key informant interviews. RESULTS: With the support of international health groups, local tobacco control advocates worked with policymakers in Nepal to pass a comprehensive tobacco control law that exceeded FCTC obligations. The tobacco industry exploited a time of political transition to block consideration by Parliament, arranged and sponsored foreign tours for legislators, made death threats to tobacco control advocates and their families, and argued for the economic importance of tobacco farms. Despite strong interference from Health, and Law and Justice ministers, a 2009 Supreme Court ruling helped tobacco control advocates secure a comprehensive tobacco control law in 2011 that included rotating pictorial health warning labels covering 75% of both sides of cigarette packages, 100% smoke free public places and workplaces, private homes and vehicles, and a tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship ban. CONCLUSIONS: Advocates in developing countries should utilize Nepal's experience to reject tobacco industry offers of compromise and continue educating politicians and legislators to generate political support to pass a comprehensive tobacco control law. Technical and financial support from international agencies, and effective collaboration and coordination of civil societies, and utilization of domestic litigation are helpful in LMICs where governance is weak (the abstract in Nepali is available as a Supplementary Material). IMPLICATIONS: The tobacco industry exploited a time of political transition in Nepal in its effort to block comprehensive tobacco control policy in Parliament by sponsoring foreign tours of legislatures, making death threats to tobacco control advocates and their families, and arguing for the economic importance of tobacco farms. Tobacco control advocates used litigation to raise awareness and educate legislators and promote strong legislation with the involvement of international health groups. Technical and financial support from international agencies, and effective collaboration and coordination of civil societies, and utilization of domestic litigation are helpful in LMICs where governance is weak.

Smoke-Free Air Interventions in Seven Latin American Countries: Health and Financial Impact to Inform Evidence-Based Policy Implementation.

INTRODUCTION: Disease burden due to tobacco smoking in Latin America remains very high. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact of implementing smoke-free air interventions on health and cost outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, using a mathematical model. AIMS AND METHODS: We built a probabilistic Monte Carlo microsimulation model, considering natural history, direct health system costs, and quality of life impairment associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes on an annual basis to obtain aggregated 10-year population health outcomes (deaths and events) and costs. To populate the model, we completed an overview and systematic review of the literature. Also, we calibrated the model comparing the predicted disease-specific mortality rates with those coming from local national statistics. RESULTS: With current policies, for the next 10 years, a total of 137 121 deaths and 917 210 events could be averted, adding 3.84 million years of healthy life and saving USD 9.2 billion in these seven countries. If countries fully implemented smoke-free air strategies, it would be possible to avert nearly 180 000 premature deaths and 1.2 million events, adding 5 million healthy years of life and saving USD 13.1 billion in direct healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the smoke-free air strategy would substantially reduce deaths, diseases, and health care costs attributed to smoking. Latin American countries should not delay the full implementation of this strategy. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable and premature mortality cause in the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by the World Health Organization, introduced a package of evidence-based measures for tobacco control. This study adds quality evidence on the potential health effects and savings of implementing smoke-free air policies in countries representing almost 80% of the Latin America and the Caribbean population.

Health and Economic Impact of Health Warnings and Plain Tobacco Packaging in Seven Latin American Countries: Results of a Simulation Model.

INTRODUCTION: The burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Latin America is very high. Our objective was to evaluate the 10-year potential impact of current legislation related to cigarette packaging and warnings and expected effects of moving to a higher level of strategies implementing cigarette plain packaging on health and cost outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, using a microsimulation model. AIMS AND METHODS: We used a probabilistic state-transition microsimulation model, considering natural history, costs, and quality of life losses associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed up individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes annually to obtain aggregated long-term population health outcomes and costs. We performed a literature review to estimate effects and analyzed studies and information from ministries, relevant organizations, and national surveys. We calibrated the model comparing the predicted disease-specific mortality rates with local statistics. RESULTS: Current graphic warnings already in place in each country could avert, during 10 years, 69 369 deaths and 638 295 disease events, adding 1.2 million years of healthy life and saving USD 5.3 billion in the seven countries. If these countries implemented plain packaging strategies, additional 155 857 premature deaths and 4 133 858 events could be averted, adding 4.1 million healthy years of life and saving USD 13.6 billion in direct health care expenses of diseases attributable to smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Latin American countries should not delay the implementation of this strategy that will alleviate part of the enormous health and financial burden that tobacco poses on their economies and health care systems. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable and premature mortality cause in the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by the World Health Organization, introduced a package of evidence-based measures for tobacco control. This study adds evidence on the potential health effects and savings of implementing cigarette plain packaging in countries representing almost 80% of the Latin American population; findings are valuable resources for policy makers in the region.

Economic Evaluation of Five Tobacco Control Policies Across Seven European Countries.

INTRODUCTION: Economic evaluations of tobacco control policies targeting adolescents are scarce. Few take into account real-world, large-scale implementation costs; few compare cost-effectiveness of different policies across different countries. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of five tobacco control policies (nonschool bans, including bans on sales to minors, bans on smoking in public places, bans on advertising at points-of-sale, school smoke-free bans, and school education programs), implemented in 2016 in Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Portugal. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness estimates were calculated per country and per policy, from the State perspective. Costs were collected by combining quantitative questionnaires with semi-structured interviews on how policies were implemented in each setting, in real practice. Short-term effectiveness was based on the literature, and long-term effectiveness was modeled using the DYNAMO-HIA tool. Discount rates of 3.5% were used for costs and effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses considered 1%-50% short-term effectiveness estimates, highest cost estimates, and undiscounted effectiveness. FINDINGS: Nonschool bans cost up to €253.23 per healthy life year, school smoking bans up to €91.87 per healthy life year, and school education programs up to €481.35 per healthy life year. Cost-effectiveness depended on the costs of implementation, short-term effectiveness, initial smoking rates, dimension of the target population, and weight of smoking in overall mortality and morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: All five policies were highly cost-effective in all countries according to the World Health Organization thresholds for public health interventions. Cost-effectiveness was preserved even when using the highest costs and most conservative effectiveness estimates. IMPLICATIONS: Economic evaluations using real-world data on tobacco control policies implemented at a large scale are scarce, especially considering nonschool bans targeting adolescents. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of five tobacco control policies implemented in 2016 in Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Portugal. This study shows that all five policies were highly cost-effective considering the World Health Organization threshold, even when considering the highest costs and most conservative effectiveness estimates.

'Pro-tobacco propaganda': a case study of tobacco industry-sponsored elementary schools in China.

BACKGROUND: China is the largest producer and consumer of tobacco products worldwide. While direct marketing and advertisement of tobacco products is restricted, indirect marketing still exists under the guise of sponsorship and corporate social responsibility (CSR). This case study is focused on tobacco industry-sponsored elementary schools in Chinese rural areas. METHODS: Field visits were conducted in Yunnan province to interview students, teachers, school principals and parents to understand their perceptions of the tobacco industry and its sponsorship of schools. Interviews with tobacco control activists were conducted in Beijing to discuss national tobacco control efforts targeting tobacco industry sponsorship. Interview data were transcribed and coded, with key themes developed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: While health consequences of smoking are generally known, attitudes towards the tobacco industry and its CSR activities remain positive among the general public. Educators and parents do not perceive any impacts on schoolchildren from exposure to 'pro-tobacco propaganda' created by the industry's CSR activities. Attitudes among tobacco control activists were drastically different, with consensus that CSR activities constitute indirect marketing attempts that should be banned. CONCLUSION: National tobacco control legislation banning all forms of indirect marketing including CSR is needed in order to protect the health of future generations.

Economic burden of lung cancer attributable to smoking in China in 2015.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is substantially attributable to smoking, but detailed related estimates on smoking-attributable expenditure (SAE) in China are not available yet, which could inform tobacco control and cancer prevention initiatives. METHODS: A prevalence-based approach was adopted to estimate the total SAE, including direct expenditure (medical and non-medical) and indirect cost (disability and premature death). Detailed per-patient data on direct expenditure and work-loss days were acquired from a unique multicentre survey in China. Other parameters were from literatures and official reports. RESULTS: The total estimated SAE of lung cancer was US$5249 million in China in 2015 (0.05 % of gross domestic product for China). The estimated direct SAE was US$1937 million (36.9 % of the total SAE), accounting for 0.29 % of total healthcare expenditure for China. The medical and non-medical direct expenditures were US$1749 million and US$188 million, respectively. The estimated indirect cost was US$3312 million (63.1 % of the total SAE), including US$377 million due to disability and US$2935 million due to premature death. The SAE increased with age, peaking at 60-64 years (US$1004 million), and was higher among men, in urban areas and in eastern China. If smoking prevalence was reduced to 20%, as is the goal of Healthy China 2030, the total SAE would be decreased by 4.9 %. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking-attributable economic burden caused by lung cancer was substantial in China in 2015, and will continue increasing given current trends in lung cancer. However, future economic burden can be prevented with implementation of effective tobacco control and other interventions.

Changes in roll-your-own tobacco and cigarette sales volume and prices before, during and after plain packaging legislation in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Plain packaging and minimum pack size legislation for tobacco products was introduced in the UK in May 2016, with a 1-year sell-off period until May 2017, during which both fully branded and plain packs of various sizes were legally available. This study investigates trends in prices of roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) before, during and after implementation of this legislation, and compares trends with those observed in the cigarette market. METHODS: We used Nielsen Scantrack data for the period from March 2013 to June 2018 to describe trends in UK inflation-adjusted prices and volumes of both RYO and cigarettes, and linear regression to estimate changes in prices associated with the introduction of plain packaging and the minimum pack sizes of 30 g RYO and 20 cigarettes. RESULTS: In contrast to a downward trend in cigarette sales volumes, RYO volumes rose throughout the study period. By the time plain packs accounted for 75% or more of sales, the average price of products sold in equivalent pack sizes had increased, relative to average prices in the year before implementation and with adjustment for tax changes, from 34.9 to 38.8 pence per gram for RYO (mean difference 4.26, 95% CI 3.99 to 4.53 pence, 12% increase), and from 38.6 to 41.13 pence for cigarettes (mean difference 2.53, 95% CI 2.24 to 2.83 pence, 7% increase) per cigarette. CONCLUSIONS: New legislation resulted in higher prices for RYO and manufactured cigarettes. However, sales volumes of RYO continued to increase throughout the study period, perhaps because RYO remains a less expensive means of smoking tobacco.

Pensions, consumption and health: evidence from rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of older people in sub-Saharan Africa are gaining access to pension benefits and it is often claimed that these benefits promote healthy forms of consumption, which contribute to significant improvements in their health status. However, evidence to support these claims is limited. METHODS: The paper uses data for 2701 people aged 60 or over who participated in a population-based study in rural north-eastern South Africa. It analyses effects of receiving a pension on reported food scarcity, body mass index and patterns of consumption. RESULTS: The paper finds that living in a pension household is associated with a reduced risk of reported food scarcity and with higher levels of consumption of food and drink. The paper does not find that living in a pension household is associated with a higher prevalence of current smoking nor current alcohol consumption. However, the paper still finds that tobacco and alcohol make up over 40% of reported food and drink consumption, and that the correlation between reported food scarcity and body mass index status is imperfect. CONCLUSIONS: The paper does not show significant associations between pension receipt and the selected risk factors. However, the context of prevalent obesity and high shares of household spending allocated to tobacco and alcohol call into question widely-made claims that pensions enhance healthy consumption among older people in low and middle-income countries.

Examining effects of unit price on preference for reduced nicotine content cigarettes and smoking rate.

Cigarette preference increases as a function of greater nicotine content, but manipulating cost can shift preference. The aims of the present study are to model whether (1) the behavioral-economic metric unit price (cost/reinforcer magnitude) accounts for preference shifts and (2) whether preference shifts toward reduced nicotine content are associated with smoking reductions. In a multisite study between 2015 and 2016, 169 daily smokers from vulnerable populations completed two concurrent-choice conditions examining preference for smoking normal (15.8 mg/g) and reduced (0.4 mg/g) nicotine content cigarettes. In Condition 1, both products were available at 10 responses/choice. In Condition 2, availability of the 0.4 mg/g dose remained at 10 responses/choice while the 15.8 mg/g dose was available on a progressive-ratio (PR) schedule wherein response cost increased following each choice. Unit prices were calculated by dividing dose by response requirement. Results were analyzed using ANOVA and binomial tests (p < .05). Participants preferred the 15.8 over 0.4 mg/g dose in Condition 1, but shifted preference to the 0.4 mg/g dose in Condition 2 (p < .001) immediately before the point in the PR progression where unit price for 15.8 dose exceeded unit price for the 0.4 dose (p < .001). This shift was associated with a reduction in smoking (p < .001). The unit price of nicotine appears to underpin cigarette product preference and may provide a metric for predicting preference and potentially impacting it through tobacco regulations. These results also demonstrate that reduced compared to normal nicotine content cigarettes sustain lower smoking rates discernible even under acute laboratory conditions and in vulnerable populations.

Using Birth Cohort Data to Assess the Impact of the UK 2008-2010 Economic Recession on Smoking During Pregnancy.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the well-known link between stress and smoking, evidence for associations between economic recession, financial stress, and smoking is contradictory. In this study, we assess whether women were more likely to continue smoking during pregnancy if they were exposed to the UK 2008-2010 economic recession during pregnancy than those who were unexposed, and whether this relationship is mediated by financial stress. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data on 2775 pregnant women who were regular smokers before pregnancy and who were enrolled in the UK Born in Bradford cohort study between March 2007 and December 2010. The cutoff date for exposure to recession was set as August 1, 2008, based on local and national economic data. Multivariable logistic regression analysis included potential confounders: maternal age, parity, cohabitation, ethnicity, and maternal age. The mediating role of financial stress was analyzed using "worse off financially" and a "difficult financial situation" as indicators of financial stress in Sobel-Goodman mediation tests with bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: After taking into account potential confounders, exposure to recession was associated with continued smoking during pregnancy (OR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.01 to 1.41, p = 0.03). A worse financial situation and a difficult financial situation were identified as mediators, explaining 8.4% and 17.6%, respectively, of the relationship between exposure to recession and smoking during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking during pregnancy is associated with exposure to the UK 2008-2010 economic recession during pregnancy, and this relationship is partly mediated by financial stress. IMPLICATIONS: Health inequalities in smoking during pregnancy are affected by economic recession, as those who are most likely to smoke are also most likely to experience the financial stress resulting from economic recession. Socioeconomic conditions at the societal and individual level are important targets when aiming to reduce rates of smoking during pregnancy.

Placing Antismoking Graphic Warning Posters at Retail Point-of-Sale Locations Increases Some Adolescents' Susceptibility to Future Smoking.

Objectives: This experiment tested whether introducing graphic antitobacco posters at point-of-sale (POS) had any effect on adolescents' susceptibility to future cigarette smoking and whether these effects were moderated by adolescents' baseline risk of cigarette smoking. Methods: The study was conducted in the RAND StoreLab, a life-sized replica of a convenience store that was developed to experimentally evaluate how changing aspects of tobacco advertising displays in retail POS environments influence tobacco use risk and behavior during simulated shopping experiences. In this study, 441 adolescents were randomized to one of the four conditions in a 2 (graphic antismoking poster placed near the tobacco power wall: no, yes) × 2 (graphic antismoking poster placed near the cash register: no, yes) experimental design. The outcome of interest was susceptibility to future cigarette smoking. Results: The addition of antismoking posters at POS led to a significant increase in future smoking susceptibility among those adolescents who already were at high risk for smoking in the future (p < .045). The introduction of graphic antismoking posters had no impact on committed never smokers, regardless of poster location; never smokers' susceptibility to future smoking was uniformly low across experimental conditions. Conclusions: Introducing graphic antismoking posters at POS may have the unintended effect of further increasing cigarette smoking susceptibility among adolescents already at risk.

Health Care Provider Intervention and Utilization of Cessation Assistance in 12 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Background and Aim: There is a need to improve utilization of cessation assistance in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and tobacco cessation research has been identified as priority in LMICs. This study evaluates the relationship between health care provider intervention and cessation assistance utilization in LMICs. Methods: Data from 13 967 participants (aged ≥15 years, 90.3% males) of the Global Adults Tobacco Survey conducted in 12 LMICs (74.3%-97.3% response rates) were analyzed with utilization of counseling/cessation clinic, WHO-recommended medications, and quitline as outcome variables. Health care provider intervention ("no intervention," only "tobacco screening," "quit advice") was the exposure variable. Weighted multiple logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between each outcome variable and the exposure variable, adjusting for other covariates. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are reported. Results: Approximately 52%, 8%, and 40% of participants received no intervention, only tobacco screening, and advice to quit, respectively. Overall, 0.4%, 1.9%, 3.0%, and 4.5% used quitline, WHO-recommended medications, counseling/cessation clinic, and any cessation assistance, respectively. Compared with no intervention, quit advice was associated with increased utilization of quitline (OR = 2.24, 95% CI = 1.2 to 4.4), WHO-recommended medications (OR = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.2 to 2.3), counseling/cessation clinic (OR = 4.41, 95% CI = 3.2 to 6.1), and any assistance (any of the three types) (OR = 2.80, 95% CI = 2.2 to 3.6). Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that the incorporation of quit advice by health care providers in tobacco control programs and health care systems in LMICs could potentially improve utilization of cessation assistance to improve smoking cessation in LMICs. Implications: This first study of association between health care provider intervention and the utilization of cessation assistance in LMICs reports that there was a missed opportunity to provide quit advice to about 60% of smokers who visited a health care provider in the past year. The odds of utilization of counseling/cessation clinic, WHO-recommended medications, and quitline were significantly increased in participants who were advised to quit smoking. The results suggest that effective integration and implementation of advice to quit in tobacco control programs and the national health care systems may increase the use of cessation assistance to quit smoking.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Stop Smoking Interventions in Substance-Use Disorder Populations.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is highly prevalent among people attending treatment for a substance-use disorder (SUD). In the United Kingdom, specialist support to stop smoking is largely delivered by a national network of stop smoking services, and typically comprises of behavioral support delivered by trained practitioners on an individual (one-to-one) or group basis combined with a pharmacological smoking-cessation aid. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these interventions and compare cost-effectiveness for interventions using group- and individual-based support, in populations under treatment for SUD. METHODS: Economic modeling was used to evaluate the incremental cost-per-quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs) gained for smoking-cessation interventions compared with alternative methods of quitting for the SUD treatment population. Allowance was made for potentially lower abstinence rates in the SUD population. RESULTS: The incremental cost-per-QALY gained from quit attempts supported through more frequently provided interventions in England ranged from around £4,700 to £12,200. These values are below the maximum cost-effectiveness threshold adopted by policy makers in England for judging whether health programs are a cost-effective use of resources. The estimated cost-per-QALY gained for interventions using group-based behavioral support were estimated to be at least half the magnitude of those using individual support due to lower intervention costs and higher reported quit rates. Conclusions reached regarding the cost-effectiveness of group-based interventions were also found to be more robust to changes in modeling assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking-cessation interventions were found to be cost-effective when applied to the SUD population, particularly when group-based behavioral support is offered alongside pharmacological treatment. IMPLICATIONS: This analysis has shown that smoking-cessation interventions combining pharmacological treatment with behavioral support can offer a cost-effective method for increasing rates of smoking cessation in populations being treated for a substance-use disorder. This is despite evidence of lower comparative success rates in terms of smoking abstinence in populations with SUD. Our evaluation suggests that medication combined with group-based behavioral support may offer better value for money in this population compared with interventions using individual support, though further evidence on the comparative effectiveness and cost of interventions delivered to SUD treatment populations would facilitate a more robust comparison.

Indexation of Tobacco Excise and Customs Duty and Smoking Prevalence Among Australian Adults, 2001-2010: A Serial Cross-sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION: Australia's excise and customs duty on tobacco has been automatically increased biannually since 1984. Increases in duty on par with inflation ensured that tobacco stayed at least as costly as other goods. This would be expected to maintain, rather than drive down, smoking prevalence. We examined the association between smoking prevalence and duty over a 10-year period. METHODS: Using monthly data from five Australian capital cities, collected from March 2001 to March 2010 among Australians aged at least 18 years, multiple linear regression modeled associations between smoking prevalence and the two components (duty and non-duty) of the recommended retail price of an average packet of cigarettes, adjusting for policy covariates. RESULTS: Prevalence declined from 23.6% in March 2001 to 17.0% in March 2010 [absolute difference 6.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 6.5 to 6.8]. Duty increased from $0.2026 to $0.2622 per cigarette over the same period. In the adjusted model, a 1-cent increase in the duty component of price was not associated with changes in prevalence (0.019; 95% CI = -0.035 to 0.028). Increased non-duty component of price was associated with a decline in prevalence (-0.027; 95% CI = -0.052 to -0.002). This effect was stronger when changes in income were controlled for. CONCLUSIONS: In line with expectations, inflation-adjusted duty was not associated with changes in smoking prevalence, but it may have prevented upward pressure on prevalence that increasing affordability could have exerted. Frequent increases in duty greater than the growth in both wages and goods would more effectively reduce smoking than regular indexation. IMPLICATIONS: Few countries inflation-adjusted excise duty to ensure that tobacco products do not become more affordable; however, Australia experienced a decade of inflation adjustment alone, enabling the impact of this policy to be studied. This study shows that inflation-adjusted duty likely did prevent tobacco becoming more affordable and that indexation was associated with declines in smoking when tobacco companies over-shifted the duty rises (ie, increased price over and above duty rises).The study also suggests that frequent increases in taxation that exceed both wage growth and increases in costliness of other goods are needed to prompt increased rates of quitting.

Basic economic gap related to smoking: reconciling tobacco tax receipts and economic costs of smoking-attributable diseases.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco tax rates set by various governments are not based on the idea that tax receipts should cover the costs incurred by smoking. It can be assumed that tobacco tax receipts (TTR) differ from the costs of smoking. The aim is to determine the global basic economic gap (BEG) between TTR and the economic costs of smoking-attributable diseases (ECS). METHODS: BEG is described as the difference between the ECS and TTR. A total of 124 countries representing 94% of global tobacco consumption were included in the research by means of the creation of a database, the adjustment of input data and the identification of their intersection. RESULTS: The global BEG reaches US$1438 billion per year. The global ECS are US$1911 billion per year. The global TTR are US$473 billion per year and compensate for only one quarter of the ECS. Within countries with the highest consumption of cigarettes, especially the USA but also Russia and Germany, the proportion of the ECS covered by the TTR is even lower, although private health expenditures have been taken into account. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that tobacco taxes would have to be globally increased by more than four times on average in order to cover the ECS or between two and two-and-a-half times if we take private health expenditures into account. The informational pressure concerning health risks associated with smoking aimed at reducing harmful consumption and improving global health can also be supported with these economic facts.

Association between tobacco prices and smoking onset: evidence from the TCP India Survey.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is prevalent among youth and adults in India. However, direct evidence on how increasing taxes or prices affect tobacco use onset is scarce. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the associations between cigarette and bidi prices and smoking onset in India, and how these associations differ by socioeconomic status. METHODOLOGY: The Wave 1 of the Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation India Survey by the International Tobacco Control Project contains information on the age at smoking onset for cigarettes and bidis. Using this information, data were expanded to a yearly pseudo-panel dataset that tracked respondents at risk of smoking onset from 1998 to 2011. The associations between bidi prices and bidi smoking onset, between cigarette prices and cigarette smoking onset, and between bidi and cigarette prices and any smoking onset were examined using a discrete-time hazard model with a logit link function. Stratified analyses were conducted to examine the difference in these associations by rural versus urban division. RESULTS: We found that higher bidi prices were significantly associated with a lowered hazard of bidi smoking onset (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.51). Higher cigarette prices were significantly (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92) associated with a lowered hazard of cigarette smoking onset among urban residents, but this association was non-significant when SEs were clustered at the state level. In addition, the association between increasing bidis prices and lowered hazards of bidi smoking onset was greater for urban residents than for rural ones (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Under the new regime of a central goods and service system, policymakers may need to raise the prices of tobacco products sufficiently to curb smoking onset.

Who uses rollies? Trends in product offerings, price and use of roll-your-own tobacco in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco product market in Australia from 2001 to 2016. Trends in use of RYO tobacco among Australian adults were examined for 2004-2016. METHODS: Changes in brand availability, pouch sizes and lowest priced products were noted from trade magazines. Prevalence of smoking of RYO and factory-made (FM) cigarettes among those 18 years and older was obtained from five consecutive waves of a large (n>21 000) nationally representative triennial survey from 2004 to 2016. Trends in cigarette use were examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Changes in the Australian RYO market from 2001 to 2016 included a doubling in the number of brands, progressively smaller pouch sizes with smaller increases in price than in traditional RYO and comparable FM products. While use of FM cigarettes declined between 2004 and 2016, the proportion of adults exclusively using RYO tobacco linearly increased with each survey wave (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.05, p<0.001), from 1.2% in 2004 to 1.7% in 2016. Exclusive RYO use among current smokers increased more among females than males, and young adults compared with those aged 30 years or older, but did not differ by socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to substantial declines in FM cigarette use, exclusive use of RYO cigarettes increased in Australians since 2004, particularly among females and young adults. This has corresponded to a period of substantial changes to the RYO market, including progressively smaller and relatively more affordable products. Policy action to reduce price-related marketing and correct consumer misinformation about RYO tobacco are urgently required.

[The evaluation of direct economic loss related to tobacco smoking in 2009 and 2016].

The article presents an assessment of the economic damage associated with smoking for the period of 2009-2016. The obtained data on the prevalence of tobacco dependence for 2009-2016 showed, on the one hand, a decrease in tobacco dependence among the population surveyed, and on the other hand, an increase in the share of consumer spending on tobacco products and of an index of the physical volume of retail sales of tobacco products. The study included an analysis of the incidence of diseases associated with smoking, as well as an analysis of the attendance of medical care for patients with tobacco-related diseases.

Feasibility, Efficacy, and Cost Analysis of Promoting Smoking Cessation at Outdoor Smoking "Hotspots": A Pre-Post Study.

Introduction: To motivate smokers to quit, there is a need for enhanced smoking cessation (SC) recruitment and for innovative and proactive approaches to SC. This study evaluated the feasibility, efficacy, and cost of promoting SC in public outdoor areas where smokers gather to smoke (smoking hotspots). Methods: We selected 14 smoking hotspots in Hong Kong for SC promotion in 2015. University students were trained as SC ambassadors to deliver brief SC intervention, and to recruit smokers for telephone follow-up. The proportion of smokers accepting the intervention components was recorded. Self-reported abstinence in the past 7 days and knowledge of smoking and health were assessed at the 6-month follow-up. The average costs of each smoker receiving our intervention and quitting were also compared. Results: Of 3,080 smokers approached, 1,278 (41.5%) accepted the souvenir and 920 (29.9%) received brief advice. Of the 210 (6.8%) who consented to the follow-up, 24.5% were aged 15-29 and 46.4% were aged 30-49. Of the 151 smokers successfully contacted within 1 month after recruitment, 16 (10.6%; 1.3% of the 1,278 who received any form of intervention) reported abstinence, and their overall knowledge improved. The average costs for a smoker to receive brief advice, consent to follow up by telephone, attempt to quit, and quit successfully at the 6-month follow-up were US$30, US$132, US$601, and US$1,626, respectively. Conclusions: Promoting SC at smoking hotspots could be a feasible way to achieve satisfactory quitting outcomes at low cost and is useful in the absence of the strengthening of tobacco policies. Implications: Our study indicates that outdoor smoking hotspots are feasible platforms for promoting SC and recruiting smokers for cessation services; satisfactory outcomes can be achieved at a reasonable cost. Our promotion was particularly useful for recruiting young smokers and those who want to quit. It is feasible and efficacious to raise smokers' awareness of SC when other tobacco control policies not feasible. Indoor smoking bans or other substantial tobacco control policies could enhance the efficiency with which SC is promoted.