Predicting vehicle fuel consumption patterns using floating vehicle data.

The status of energy consumption and air pollution in China is serious. It is important to analyze and predict the different fuel consumption of various types of vehicles under different influence factors. In order to fully describe the relationship between fuel consumption and the impact factors, massive amounts of floating vehicle data were used. The fuel consumption pattern and congestion pattern based on large samples of historical floating vehicle data were explored, drivers' information and vehicles' parameters from different group classification were probed, and the average velocity and average fuel consumption in the temporal dimension and spatial dimension were analyzed respectively. The fuel consumption forecasting model was established by using a Back Propagation Neural Network. Part of the sample set was used to train the forecasting model and the remaining part of the sample set was used as input to the forecasting model.

Adopting Clean Fuels and Technologies on School Buses. Pollution and Health Impacts in Children.

RATIONALE: More than 25 million American children breathe polluted air on diesel school buses. Emission reduction policies exist, but the health impacts to individual children have not been evaluated. METHODS: Using a natural experiment, we characterized the exposures and health of 275 school bus riders before, during, and after the adoption of clean technologies and fuels between 2005 and 2009. Air pollution was measured during 597 trips on 188 school buses. Repeated measures of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO), lung function (FEV1, FVC), and absenteeism were also collected monthly (1,768 visits). Mixed-effects models longitudinally related the adoption of diesel oxidation catalysts (DOCs), closed crankcase ventilation systems (CCVs), ultralow-sulfur diesel (ULSD), or biodiesel with exposures and health. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Fine and ultrafine particle concentrations were 10-50% lower on buses using ULSD, DOCs, and/or CCVs. ULSD adoption was also associated with reduced FeNO (-16% [95% confidence interval (CI), -21 to -10%]), greater changes in FVC and FEV1 (0.02 [95% CI, 0.003 to 0.05] and 0.01 [95% CI, -0.006 to 0.03] L/yr, respectively), and lower absenteeism (-8% [95% CI, -16.0 to -0.7%]), with stronger associations among patients with asthma. DOCs, and to a lesser extent CCVs, also were associated with improved FeNO, FVC growth, and absenteeism, but these findings were primarily restricted to patients with persistent asthma and were often sensitive to control for ULSD. No health benefits were noted for biodiesel. Extrapolating to the U.S. population, changed fuel/technologies likely reduced absenteeism by more than 14 million/yr. CONCLUSIONS: National and local diesel policies appear to have reduced children's exposures and improved health.

A spatially and temporally explicit life cycle inventory of air pollutants from gasoline and ethanol in the United States.

The environmental health impacts of transportation depend in part on where and when emissions occur during fuel production and combustion. Here we describe spatially and temporally explicit life cycle inventories (LCI) of air pollutants from gasoline, ethanol derived from corn grain, and ethanol from corn stover. Previous modeling for the U.S. by Argonne National Laboratory (GREET: Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) suggested that life cycle emissions are generally higher for ethanol from corn grain or corn stover than for gasoline. Our results show that for ethanol, emissions are concentrated in the Midwestern "Corn Belt". We find that life cycle emissions from ethanol exhibit different temporal patterns than from gasoline, reflecting seasonal aspects of farming activities. Enhanced chemical speciation beyond current GREET model capabilities is also described. Life cycle fine particulate matter emissions are higher for ethanol from corn grain than for ethanol from corn stover; for black carbon, the reverse holds. Overall, our results add to existing state-of-the-science transportation fuel LCI by providing spatial and temporal disaggregation and enhanced chemical speciation, thereby offering greater understanding of the impacts of transportation fuels on human health and opening the door to advanced air dispersion modeling of fuel life cycles.

Lead isotopes in marine surface sediments reveal historical use of leaded fuel.

Analyses of lead (Pb) isotopes have been performed in terrestrial and fresh water environments to estimate historical uses of leaded fuel, but so far this method has not been employed in studies of world-wide marine surface sediments. We analyzed Pb and its isotopes in 23 surface sediments from four continents collected during the Galathea 3 expedition in 2006-2007. To enhance the anthropogenic signal, a partial digestion using nitric acid was performed. The concentrations of Pb, Th, U and Al were determined with an ICP-Quadrupole MS, and Pb-isotope ratios with an ICP-multi-collector MS. The samples could be divided into three groups: Harbor areas in larger cities with concentrations of 150 to 265 mg kg(-1) dry weight, smaller towns with concentrations between 20 and 40 mg kg(-1) dry weight, and remotely located sites with concentrations below 15 mg kg(-1) dry weight. Pb-isotope ratios were compared to literature values for gasoline and local or geological background values, and the contribution of leaded-gasoline to total concentrations was calculated for contaminated sites using both a one-dimensional and a novel two-dimensional (vector) method. The North American sites had Pb-isotope ratios corresponding to the US leaded gasoline, with 24-88% of the Pb from leaded gasoline. Samples from Oceania showed Pb-isotope ratios corresponding to Australian gasoline, with 60% attributed to leaded gasoline in Sydney and 21% in Christchurch. Outside Cape Town, 15 to 46% of Pb in sediments was from leaded gasoline.

Climate and health relevant emissions from in-use Indian three-wheelers fueled by natural gas and gasoline.

Auto-rickshaws in India use different fuels and engine technologies, with varying emissions and implications for air quality and climate change. Chassis dynamometer emission testing was conducted on 30 in-use auto-rickshaws to quantify the impact of switching from gasoline to compressed natural gas (CNG) in spark-ignition engines. Thirteen test vehicles had two-stroke CNG engines (CNG-2S) and 17 had four-stroke CNG engines (CNG-4S), of which 11 were dual-fuel and operable on a back-up gasoline (petrol) system (PET-4S). Fuel-based emission factors were determined for gaseous pollutants (CO(2), CH(4), NO(X), THC, and CO) and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)). Intervehicle variability was high, and for most pollutants there was no significant difference (95% confidence level) between "old" (1998-2001) and "new" (2007-2009) age-groups within a given fuel-technology class. Mean fuel-based PM(2.5) emission factor (mean (95% confidence interval)) for CNG-2S (14.2 g kg(-1) (6.2-26.7)) was almost 30 times higher than for CNG-4S (0.5 g kg(-1) (0.3-0.9)) and 12 times higher than for PET-4S (1.2 g kg(-1) (0.8-1.7)). Global warming commitment associated with emissions from CNG-2S was more than twice that from CNG-4S or PET-4S, due mostly to CH(4) emissions. Comprehensive measurements and data should drive policy interventions rather than assumptions about the impacts of clean fuels.

On-road vehicle emission control in Beijing: past, present, and future.

Beijing, the capital of China, has experienced rapid motorization since 1990; a trend that is likely to continue. The growth in vehicles and the corresponding emissions create challenges to improving the urban air quality. In an effort to reduce the impact of vehicle emissions on urban air quality, Beijing has adopted a number of vehicle emission control strategies and policies since the mid 1990 s. These are classified into seven categories: (1) emission control on new vehicles; (2) emission control on in-use vehicles; (3) fuel quality improvements; (4) alternative-fuel and advanced vehicles; (5) economic policies; (6) public transport; and (7) temporal traffic control measures. Many have proven to be successful, such as the Euro emission standards, unleaded gasoline and low sulfur fuel, temporal traffic control measures during the Beijing Olympic Games, etc. Some, however, have been failures, such as the gasoline-to-LPG taxi retrofit program. Thanks to the emission standards for new vehicles as well as other controls, the fleet-average emission rates of CO, HC, NO(X), and PM(10) by each major vehicle category are decreasing over time. For example, gasoline cars decreased fleet-average emission factors by 12.5% for CO, 10.0% for HC, 5.8% for NO(X), and 13.0% for PM(10) annually since 1995, and such a trend is likely to continue. Total emissions for Beijing's vehicle fleet increased from 1995 to 1998. However, they show a clear and steady decrease between 1999 and 2009. In 2009, total emissions of CO, HC, NO(X), and PM(10) were 845,000 t, 121,000 t, 84,000 t, and 3700 t, respectively; with reductions of 47%, 49%, 47%, and 42%, relative to 1998. Beijing has been considered a pioneer in controlling vehicle emissions within China, similar to the role of California to the U.S. The continued rapid growth of vehicles, however, is challenging Beijing's policy-makers.

Risk of leukemia as a result of community exposure to gasoline vapors: a follow-up study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the temporal and spatial relationship of risk for total leukemia and AML (acute myelogenous leukemia) among community residents of an area in northeastern (NE) Pennsylvania (PA) affected by the Tranguch Gasoline Spill which occurred in the early 1990s. METHODS: Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were calculated for total leukemia and AML among 625 residents affected by the gasoline spill in relation to both PA and local county cancer incidence rates. The risk of total leukemia and AML among the gasoline exposed population was evaluated for the period prior to the spill, 1985-1989; during the time surrounding the spill, 1990-1994; and for a period subsequent to the spill, 1995-2001. RESULTS: The incidence of total leukemia and AML was significantly elevated subsequent to the spill for the entire period 1990-2001 and was highest for the period 1995-2001, whether comparison was made to PA or local county leukemia rates. Based on comparison to PA rates, the SIRs for total leukemia and AML were 7.69 (95% CI=1.58-22.46) and 11.54 (95% CI=2.38-33.69) for the 1995-2001 period, respectively. Prior to the spill, 1985-1989, and during the period of the spill, 1990-1994, no cases of leukemia were identified among the affected residents. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest a possible association between chronic low level benzene exposure and increased risk of leukemia among residents of the Tranguch Spill Site in NE PA. Our study provides additional support to the growing body of evidence implicating low level benzene exposure and cancer risk. We recommend that other communities contaminated with gasoline vapor through leaking underground storage vessels be monitored for elevated risk of leukemia.

Fuel use in a large, dynamically deployed emergency medical services system.

INTRODUCTION: Emergency medical services (EMS) systems are a central component of the healthcare system, particularly for older patients. As currently configured, EMS transport is fundamentally petroleum dependent. Petroleum scarcity is an emerging public health concern, particularly for patient transport. Little is known regarding EMS fuel use, potential impacts of scarcity on operations, or strategies to minimize these impacts. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to characterize the fuel use of a large, urban, hospital-based, dynamically-deployed EMS system, and to identify broad optimization categories to minimize EMS's petroleum dependence. METHODS: Fuel use was reviewed retrospectively using fuel purchasing and maintenance data from January 2007 through September 2008. Data on unit-hours, call volume, and patient transports also were collected. Data were processed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: During the study period, a fleet of 35 diesel ambulances operated for 277,849 unit-hours and traveled 1,902,710 miles. Detailed mileage data were available for 66,527 unit-hours, 23.9% of the sample. Overall, vehicles averaged 6.6.89 (6.71, 7.08) miles per gallon (mpg), 11.5 (10.4, 12.6) miles were travelled per call, and 16.2 (14.8, 17.6) miles per transport; 2.7 (2.4, 2.9) gallons of fuel were used per transport. CONCLUSIONS: In this EMS system, operations are fundamentally dependent on petroleum. Mileage estimates can serve as a baseline to evaluate interventions for reducing petroleum dependence and in contingency planning. As cost pressures increase and these interventions become more common, systematic evaluations will be important.

The end of the assembly line: Shifting patterns of automotive burns.

INTRODUCTION: As recently as 2006, carburetor flash burns comprised as much as 27% of admissions for car-related burns, despite the fact carburetors were last installed in pre-1990 automobiles. The prevalence of this injury pattern is related to the estimated 14 million cars on the road today that were manufactured prior to that year. The aim of this study was to investigate modern sources of automotive burns and describe any new trends in automotive burn-related epidemiology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted of all burn admissions from the years 2009-2013 to identify patients who suffered automotive-related burns. Pediatric patients (<18 years old) were excluded. Demographic information including age, gender, mechanism of injury, occupation, TBSA, number of operations, and length of hospital stay were recorded. RESULTS: From 2009-2013, the burn center saw 83 admissions for automotive-related burns. 14.5% of patients were mechanics. The most common injury pattern was from radiator burns (47%), followed by gasoline related burns (30%). There were only two carburetor burns (2.4%). 67.4% of patients were treated for less than two hospital days and there was one death (1.2% mortality). CONCLUSION: Despite the removal of carburetors from engines and a decrease in this specific mechanism, a significant morbidity remains with gasoline-inflicted burns. More public awareness is needed for the safe removal of radiator caps and handling of chemicals in overheating engines.

Comparison of exhaust emissions resulting from cold- and hot-start motorcycle driving modes.

This study investigated the emissions of criteria air pollutants (carbon monoxide [CO], hydrocarbons [HCs], and oxides of nitrogen [NOx]) from motorcycle exhaust at cold- and hot-start driving cycles on a chassis dynamometer. Seven four-stroke carburetors and two fuel-injection motorcycles were tested. As expected, the emission factors (g/km) of CO and HCs increased during cold-start driving. The ratio of emission factors (g/km) for cold- and hot-start driving cycles ranged from 1.1-1.5 (for CO) to 1.2-2.8 (for HCs). However, the difference of NOx emissions between the cold- and hot-start cycles was not pronounced. Further, the cold-/hot-start ratios of CO and HCs from 50-cm3 motorcycles were higher than those of 100- and 125-cm3 motorcycles; however, the carbon dioxide (CO2) emission was the lowest for the four-stroke motorcycles. High engine temperature and poor combustion efficiency of smaller cylinder-capacity motorcycles may contribute a significant amount of exhaust emission. Additionally, the fuel-base emission factor (g/L-fuel) ratios were low compared with the distance-base emission factor (g/km) in cold- and hot-start driving. This indicates that the effect of catalyst efficiency was greater than the effect of fuel combustion in the tested motorcycles. A comparison of emission ratios of motorcycles and passenger cars shows that the warm-up may be more important for cars, especially under low-temperature conditions. However, the motorcycle contributes a large proportion of CO and HC emissions in many Asian counties. The difference between cold- and hot-start emissions may affect inventory

Coffee oil as a potential feedstock for biodiesel production.

A preliminary evaluation of the feasibility of producing biodiesel using oil extracted from defective coffee beans was conducted as an alternative means of utilizing these beans instead of roasting for consumption of beverage with depreciated quality. Direct transesterifications of triglycerides from refined soybean oil (reference) and from oils extracted from healthy and defective coffee beans were performed. Type of alcohol employed and time were the reaction parameters studied. Sodium methoxide was used as alkaline catalyst. There was optimal phase separation after reactions using both soybean and healthy coffee beans oils when methanol was used. This was not observed when using the oil from defective beans which required further processing to obtain purified alkyl esters. Nevertheless, coffee oil was demonstrated to be a potential feedstock for biodiesel production, both from healthy and defective beans, since the corresponding oils were successfully converted to fatty acid methyl and ethyl esters.

Light vehicle fuelling errors in the UK: the nature of the problem, its consequences and prevention.

Errors arising during the fuelling of light vehicles are increasing. It is estimated that around 300,000 misfuellings occurred in the UK in 2001 alone, with direct costs of approximately pound35 million and considerable inconvenience caused to all those involved. This study has investigated the causes of fuelling errors. A hierarchical task analysis of the fuelling of light vehicles was developed and data gathered from 23 individuals who had misfuelled. Errors were found to have occurred because the physical and psychological conditions on the filling station forecourt presented sufficient opportunity for an error producing sequence of events to be triggered. These occurred when specific factors were present either singly or in combination in the fuelling environment, creating an error 'pathway'. The probability of an error occurring is dependent upon the strength and type of influence these factors have on the performance of the fuelling task. It is proposed that errors are best prevented by applying ergonomic principles to the design, and/or modification of filling station layout and equipment. In this way, the error pathways may be broken and successful fuelling encouraged.

What Is Driving Obesity? A Review on the Connections Between Obesity and Motorized Transportation.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Traveling by automobile rather than walking or cycling can encourage obesity by eliminating physical activity. As national obesity rates in the USA have reached 37.9% in 2014, understanding the connections between obesity and transportation choices can help policymakers in the public health community propose effective obesity interventions at the national level. RECENT FINDINGS: Following from foundational studies examining associations between the built environment and leisure walking, recent studies consider a diverse set of transportation choices regarding mode (e.g., automobile, walking, public transit) and purpose (e.g., commuting, leisure), along with studies on the effectiveness of several transportation-related interventions for obesity. The reviewed studies point toward potential interventions for obesity; there is emerging evidence that commuting by public transit may be one such intervention. Moreover, new data-gathering tools such as global positioning systems, geographic information systems, and accelerometers may alleviate statistical obstacles in conducting future studies.

Blood and oil: vehicle characteristics in relation to fatality risk and fuel economy.

I examined the potential for a lower risk of death compatible with increased fuel economy among 67 models of 1999-2002 model year cars, vans, and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) during the calendar years 2000 to 2004. The odds of death for drivers and all persons killed in vehicle collisions were related to vehicle weight, size, stability, and crashworthiness. I calculated that fatality rates would have been 28% lower and fuel use would have been reduced by 16% if vehicle weights had been reduced to the weight of vehicles with the lowest weight per size, where size is measured by the lateral distance needed to perform a 180-degree turn. If, in addition, all vehicles had crashworthiness and stability equal to those of the top-rated vehicles, more than half the deaths involving passenger cars, vans, and SUVs could have been prevented by vehicle modifications.

The use of international data on fuel sales and vehicle fleet for the estimation of yearly national traffic volumes.

International comparisons are frequently used to assess the road safety performance of a country or to monitor its development over time, at a national or regional level. In most instances either accident or injury risks have to be considered, which results in the need for a quantitative estimation of the amount of travel, namely traffic volumes. Only in special cases may risks be indirectly compared using methods of induced exposure. The required data on traffic volumes is not always readily available. This is especially true if old data or data from several countries for a long period are to be used, as in comparative time series analysis. Several simplifying assumptions can be adopted to bypass this lack of data but often the estimates resulting from these simple assumptions are not entirely satisfactory. Between 1996 and 1998 the European Union (EU) sponsored, within the scope of the 4th Research Framework Programme, a COST Action (COST 329) to analyse and establish a common methodological framework for description and analysis of safety developments-past and future-that could also represent the effect of interventions. Researchers from 14 European countries participated in this action. One activity carried out was the development of a method for estimating the traffic volume of countries where such data is not available, using data on vehicle fleet and fuel sales in the studied country and mathematical models fitted to existing data (from other countries) on fuel consumption, vehicle fleet and traffic volume. In the European context, this method is especially useful for some Eastern and Southern European countries. In this paper the mentioned method is described, the results of its application to Portugal are presented and ways to use it in other countries to estimate their traffic volumes for the period 1980-2000 are described.

Intelligent speed adaptation: accident savings and cost-benefit analysis.

The UK External Vehicle Speed Control (EVSC) project has made a prediction of the accident savings with intelligent speed adaptation (ISA), and estimated the costs and benefits of national implementation. The best prediction of accident reduction was that the fitting on all vehicles of a simple mandatory system, with which it would be impossible for vehicles to exceed the speed limit, would save 20% of injury accidents and 37% of fatal accidents. A more complex version of the mandatory system, including a capability to respond to current network and weather conditions, would result in a reduction of 36% in injury accidents and 59% in fatal accidents. The implementation path recommended by the project would lead to compulsory usage in 2019. The cost-benefit analysis carried out showed that the benefit-cost ratios for this implementation strategy were in a range from 7.9 to 15.4, i.e. the payback for the system could be up to 15 times the cost of implementing and running it.

Evaporation characteristics of ETBE-blended gasoline.

To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to global warming, production of gasoline blended with ethyl tert-buthyl ether (ETBE) is increasing annually. The flash point of ETBE is higher than that of gasoline, and blending ETBE into gasoline will change the flash point and the vapor pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the fire hazard caused by ETBE-blended gasoline would differ from that caused by normal gasoline. The aim of this study was to acquire the knowledge required for estimating the fire hazard of ETBE-blended gasoline. Supposing that ETBE-blended gasoline was a two-component mixture of gasoline and ETBE, we developed a prediction model that describes the vapor pressure and flash point of ETBE-blended gasoline in an arbitrary ETBE blending ratio. We chose 8-component hydrocarbon mixture as a model gasoline, and defined the relation between molar mass of gasoline and mass loss fraction. We measured the changes in the vapor pressure and flash point of gasoline by blending ETBE and evaporation, and compared the predicted values with the measured values in order to verify the prediction model. The calculated values of vapor pressures and flash points corresponded well to the measured values. Thus, we confirmed that the change in the evaporation characteristics of ETBE-blended gasoline by evaporation could be predicted by the proposed model. Furthermore, the vapor pressure constants of ETBE-blended gasoline were obtained by the model, and then the distillation curves were developed.